tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136717530494181436.post5320642509023120362..comments2023-04-27T08:01:33.101-07:00Comments on Balanced Sports: Euro 2012: Easier to win than the World Cup?matthew_woodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06997294649154263799noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136717530494181436.post-29032109046223879352012-06-10T18:05:46.558-07:002012-06-10T18:05:46.558-07:00Devin - you make good points and I agree with you....Devin - you make good points and I agree with you. <br /><br />To suggest simple average/median numbers tell the full story would be farcical. However, I'd argue these figures have their place, probably as a set to be proved/disproved rather than the be-all and end-all. Despite an admittedly rubbish final statement, these numbers were aimed to provide some background context rather than a full "solution" (which I accept makes the last statement rather redundant!).matthew_woodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06997294649154263799noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136717530494181436.post-92049690898479982012-06-09T16:26:57.659-07:002012-06-09T16:26:57.659-07:00Team strength should NEVER be calculated with aver...Team strength should NEVER be calculated with average or median measurements.<br /><br />First of all, team skill level is not distributed evenly. E.g. the difference between teams ranked 1st and 10th is MUCH different than teams ranked 50th and 60th. It's most certainly not a linear relationship.<br /><br />Also, lets create a hypothetical group X. Group X has 4 teams - ranked 1st, 2nd, 50th, and 51st. The average ranking of this group is 34 ... but teams 50th and 51st are going to have to play much better than the skill level of 34th to progress through the group.<br /><br />The Euros are "easier" to win than a World Cup because it's a shorter competition. The shorter the competition, the more statistical variation in results. The shorter the competition, the easier it is to "get lucky".<br /><br />It takes no genius to conclude that a weaker team is considerably more likely to win a 1-game series against a stronger opponent than a 7-game series. This same principal applies to knockout soccer competitions.dpleulerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16204801173243256806noreply@blogger.com