An Alternative to Exclusion: The Statistical Basis for an ICC World Cup Qualifying Tournament

The ICC have announced that affiliate nations are to be excluded from the World Cup in 2015, only to be reinstated from 2019 after a mooted ODI League begins. As well as manifestly defending without consequence the full member nations Bangladesh and Zimbabwe at the expense of the affiliates, there are several flaws in the ICC's logic. Their thinking is that Bangladesh and Zimbabwe deserve protection as developing cricket nations. Perhaps the ICC, when considering the following analysis, should expand their vista somewhat.

Over the last two World Cups, perhaps the most startling comparison is each team's success rate. Ireland have recorded four wins, one tie and eleven losses, Bangladesh went 6-10 and Zimbabwe managing two wins and a tie from nine matches. In fact if you take into account every ODI each nation has played since June 2006 (Ireland's first ever ODI), records are even more enlightening.

Nation	Games	Wins	Losses	Ties	N/R
Bangladesh	119	52	67	0	0
Zimbabwe	95	28	66	1	0
Ireland	64	30	30	1	3

Although Irish results don't quite measure up to those of Bangladesh, these tables don't take into account a decline in Bangladesh's form since their Super-8 appearance in the 2007 Cup in the West Indies. Comparing last decade to this, Irish cricket appears well in advance of their third-world neighbours in development:

Nation	Games	Wins		Losses		Ties	N/R
Bangladesh	119	52	43.7	67	56.3	0	0
2006-2009	86	40	46.51	46	53.49	0	0
2010-2011	33	12	36.36	21	63.64	0	0
Zimbabwe	95	28	29.47	66	70.53	1	0
2006-2009	69	19	27.54	49	71.01	1	0
2010-2011	26	9	34.62	17	65.38	0	0
Ireland	64	30	46.88	30	46.88	1	3
2006-2009	41	17	41.46	20	48.78	1	3
2010-2011	23	13	56.52	10	43.48	0	0

Given that many of Ireland's ODIs have been against ICC-trophy opposition, this is hardly conclusive proof that Ireland are a comparable side to either Zimbabwe or Bangladesh. However, what must be remembered is that while they may face weaker opposition more often, almost all of their matches are played "away". The same can't be said of Bangladesh and Zimbabwe.

Every nation uses Key Performance Indicators in their overall analysis of performance. Since Ireland entered the ODI arena, theirs compare well with their subcontinental and African cousins:

	Statistic	Bangladesh	Zimbabwe	Ireland
Bowling KPI	Runs conceded p/wkt	26	25.08	27.05
	Runs conceded p/over	4.56	4.54	4.68
Batting KPI	Highest Score	320	351	329
	Lowest Score	58	44	77
	Average Total Score	217.96	205.42	240.53

Let's examine both individual performances in both the last two World Cups to see how, on a per-match basis, the Irish stack up.

	Bangladesh	Zimbabwe	Ireland
Game 1	191	221	221
Game 2	318	204	132
Game 3	94	349	190
Game 4	106	262	266
Game 5	178	123	165
Game 6	184	166	263
Game 7	147	327	92
Game 8	243	164	169
Game 9	230	147	81
Game 10	370		205
Game 11	178		327
Game 12	59		210
Game 13	225		275
Game 14	160		272
Game 15	284		306
Average runs conceded	197.8	218.11	211.6
Total wickets taken	95	58	103
Average p/wkt	31.23	33.84	30.82
Adjusted Avg runs conc.	207.71
Adjusted avg/p/wkt	30.94

In this analysis, "Adjusted" removes the influence of any low totals made by the team while batting first - ie. Bangladesh's record-low 58 is not considered in the "Adjusted runs conceded". This has the happy benefit of decreasing their average per wicket (Adjusted avg/p/wkt) as they only took one West Indies scalp when attempting to defend their meagre total.

With batting, the story is very similar.

World Cup	Bangladesh		Zimbabwe		Ireland
	Runs	Wkts lost	Runs	Wkts lost	Runs	Wkts Lost
2007	1372	72	522	30	1452	79
2011	1017	51	1276	52	1393	51
Totals	2389	123	1798	82	2845	130
Average p/wkt	19.42		21.93		21.88

Perhaps rather than automatic ascension to ODI status, it would be best to enforce qualification rules upon the weakest two Full ICC Members - a simple, round-robin tournament evaluated by wins, losses and run-rate. It could be there that Ireland, the Netherlands, Canada and Kenya - perpetually the strongest four affiliate nations - could compete against Bangladesh and Zimbabwe for entry rights.

Such a setup may also strengthen those full members as it would provide another focal point at which things need to be "going right" in order to avoid the humiliation of failing to qualify. It only needs to be for one (two at most) World Cup and could easily be superseded by an ODI League.

Any suggestions the Bangladeshis or Zimbabweans would crush the competition in a qualifying tournament is fatuous in the extreme. To throw in one final statistic, in the past two Cups three Irish batsmen have scored hundreds. None have from Bangladesh or Zimbabwe (though one of each has come close). Ireland's batsmen seem to fire after playing themselves in - they have only eight unconverted 50s to their credit, while Bangladesh have managed nine half-centuries and Zimbabwe have eleven.

In all the statistics put together today, there's plenty of evidence that suggests that Irish, Bangladeshi and Zimbabwean cricket is relatively well-matched. Indeed, it's eminently possible to throw a blanket over the differences in each nation's stats. All statistical indicators point to a very even three-cornered series.

As with any developing cricketing nation, no-one is really sure who is going to step up on any given day to play a key hand. What it does seem however, is that Ireland are fully capable of upsetting bigger opponents, and their form is only improving rather than the cul-de-sac into which Bangladeshi cricket seems to have turned. The only fair way to ensure the development of cricket across the globe is to give the affiliate nations something to strive for, and Full member nations something to fear. That should take the form of World Cup qualifying.