What the numbers said: Aston Villa 2013-14

The following analysis was performed utilizing data from the Individual Plus/Minus series published on the site throughout the year. You can find the full data set in the Room of Informational Illusions. Should you wish for a glossary of terms used in this article, it can be found here.

Overview

Villa finished the season in fifteenth position on the EPL table, when, pre-season many expected them to challenge for a top-half berth.

2013-14 was hardly a success for Aston Villa. After assuming control of the midlands club prior to 2012-13, Scotland’s entry for World’s Most Charismatic Man Paul Lambert orchestrated something of a revolution-on-the-cheap by marginalizing the overpaid stars who had taken Villa to the brink of Champions League football and then almost to relegation. Little was heard of Alan Hutton, Darren Bent, Charles N’Zogbia and Jean Il Makoun, while young players from lower divisions like Matthew Lowton and Ashley Westwood came in as accoutrements to centerpiece Christian Benteke, who was acquired from Genk.

While some Villans – not least captain Ron Vlaar and central midfielder Fabian Delph – had solid seasons, many of the players who finished 2012-13 so promisingly regressed or struggled to impact games in 2013-14 as they had the previous season.

One of the more notable examples was Lowton, who managed only 23 matches for the term. The right-back, who scored the goal of the season against Stoke City the year before, was a defensive liability and spent vast stretches of the season either on the bench or unselected. While Andreas Weimann’s numbers according to the Individual Plus/Minus system compared quite favourably to his teammates, far more was expected from the Villa player to whom the Spiderman Principle most obviously applies.

Players the numbers loved

When using statistics to analyse players, one number rarely affords more information than a combination of several. It’s a common-sense principle, to be sure, but easily lost in these days of WAR, PER, WaRP and EPPV. Sometimes, however, one-stat analyses tell an interesting broad-stroke story.

This is true with Aston Villa, and particularly Czech forward Libor Kozak. The stringbean was the only Claret to post a positive +/--per-90 rating (0.115) – or, in layman’s terms, he was the only player during whose time on the field Villa scored more than they conceded. That he played only 781 minutes across fourteen games before his season ended with injury is testament to the bad luck endured by the club during last season; had he been available to replace Benteke during the stretch run, these numbers may have dropped, but the club may also have avoided the near-freefall that marked their 2014.

Spanish left back Antonio Luna was another who fared better than most in limited minutes. His +/--per-90 score was still negative (-0.196), but was the best of any player to take the field for over 1000 minutes (1381) despite Villa’s inability to score even one goal for every 90 minutes of his field-time.

Of the regulars, it’s no surprise that Concrete Ron (-0.385) and defensive utility Ciaran Clark (-0.326) fared the best. Most interestingly, this partnership didn’t so much reduce the club’s vulnerability – the pair conceded over 1.5 goals each per 90 minutes – but reinforce its attack. Lambert’s first-choice centre-backs averaged 1.123 and 1.224 goals per 90 minutes respectively, Vlaar’s total good enough for third in stat category that Clark led.

The farther to the extremes of the chart you read, the better/worse the player performed

Players to whom the numbers weren’t so kind

The numbers that stand out most belong to mid-season acquisitions brought in either to fill a glaring need or as a means of increasing the overall talent level of the Aston Villa playing group. This pair, Grant Holt and Ryan Bertrand, didn’t necessarily disgrace themselves on the pitch – Holt only managed 376 minutes across ten appearances – but simply displayed all the symptoms of a club who couldn’t defend for toffee.

With Bertrand on the field, the Clarets coughed up over two goals per game (2.006/90min), a total nearly 10% worse than for any other player who played over 1000 minutes (Lowton, 1.827, whose minutes were spread out over the entire season rather than just Villa’s decline phase). Lowton also fared particularly poorly as the club scored less frequently and conceded more regularly while he manned the right side.

Final mention must be given to Villa’s previously-vaunted youth. The six regulars with the worst +/--per-90 scores were previously thought of as the future of the club: Bertrand, Lowton, defensive utility Nathan Baker (-0.691), the now-departed Mark Albrighton (-0.651), Westwood (-0.639) and Leandro Bacuna (-0.590).

That Lowton makes the club’s best (statistical) offensive and defensive teams and Baker is the first defender off the bench in Villa’s best Defensive XI is an indicator not only of the lack of talent at Villa last year, but also a sign of either an almost-startling absence of depth that has yet to be redressed. This can be seen below in the chart that details each Villan's Scored/90 rate versus Conc/90 rate.

As Lambert’s cut-price remodel continues, he needs far more from these youngsters, most of which have been brought in (or throught) by his regime.

Villa's rate of scoring and concession while each player plays 90 minutes.
The further to the right of the chart, the more frequently the team scores with that player on the field; the further to the top, the more the team concedes.

Best XIs

Position	Offensive	Scored/90	Defensive	Conc/90	Overall	+/- per 90
GK	Guzan	1.026	Guzan	1.605	Guzan	-0.579
DC	Clark	1.224	Clark	1.550	Clark	-0.326
DC	Vlaar	1.123	Vlaar	1.508	Vlaar	-0.385
DL	Bertrand	1.165	Baker	1.601	Luna	-0.196
DR	Lowton	1.066	Bacuna	1.631	Bacuna	-0.590
MC	Delph	1.079	Delph	1.558	Delph	-0.480
MC	El Ahmadi	1.068	Westwood	1.627	El Ahmadi	-0.575
MR	Albrighton	1.210	Lowton	1.827	Agbonlahor	-0.512
ML	Bertrand	1.165	Luna	1.173	Weimann	-0.407
FC	Kozak	1.152	Kozak	1.037	Kozak	+0.115
FC	Weimann	1.153	Agbonlahor	1.389	Benteke	-0.498

It’s telling that several players with such bad comparative numbers feature heavily in the above lineups. For 2014-15 to proceed differently, upgrades (either internal or external) are required in all wide positions, both offensively and defensively. The left side appears to have been addressed with the acquisition of Kieren Richardson and, hopefully, improvement from Joe Bennett; the right will rely on Lowton and Bacuna once again.