Shaun Marsh - Ducks and Tons

It has come to some people’s attention that Shaun Marsh has an unenviable record in Test cricket.

Should Shane Watson re-enter the Australian team for the third Test at Cape Town at his expense, Marsh will have one foot in each of two curious history books. Were he never to play another Test – an eminently possible proposition – he would join such luminaries as Barry Richards*, Clive Radley and Tom Moody to have scored two tons in less fifteen or fewer innings. (*No one doubts Richards would have played many more innings and scored many more hundreds had South Africa been able to play Test cricket in the 1970s and 1980s).

Less appealingly, Marsh also be the star feature in another tome detailing batsmen with the highest percentage of failed innings.

On a good day, Shaun Marsh is splendid to watch. On bad days – of which there are far more – you barely get a look at him. This is because for any Test batsman (i.e. not specialist wicketkeeper or bowler) who has played at least 15 innings, Marsh has the highest rate of ducks per innings. He records one zero every 2.5 times he strolls to the crease (40%), a truly remarkable rate that makes him a true outlier. The only other true batsman with at least 15 innings’ experience to record even one duck in every four innings is the immortal Saleem Elahi, who made six gozzers in twenty-four.

The following is a chart that plots the frequency of a player’s ducks against the frequency of their scores above 50. To qualify, a player must have been selected as a batsman or all-rounder, played a minimum of fifteen Test innings and had a duck frequency rate (DFR) over 10% (i.e. one duck every ten innings).

Notable outliers have been named and highlighted.

A table containing these players can be found at the conclusion of this post. 

Shaun Marsh - the galling truth

On Monday, we shared a graphic detailing Shaun Marsh's horrendous form against India.  His slump has become epic - the only slump that hangs about as much in the modern memory was Ken Rutherford's near career-devastating debut series where the teen prodigy was worked over by a West Indies attack in their absolute pomp.

With Marsh, not only is his footwork weighed down but also his confidence.  In isolation, his batting average of 31 after ten Test innings could be plenty worse.  However, he finds himself in a situation where all around him have made multiple scores, making his lack of runs an even more glaring tribute to self-doubt.  But how bad is his form slump?  To find out, w need to frame his scores contextually.

Unfortunately for Marsh, a wide-angle lens does him no favours.  Each member of the current Australian top order's batting average had exemplified elements of stabilisation by the tenth innings; by each player's twentieth knock their averages had effectively stabilised.  Mike Hussey is of course the outrider after starting his career being exceptionally hard to dismiss.

 As one would expect, batting averages tend to steady as the number of innings increases - firstly because you obtain more consistent results and secondly because the player has established themselves as a Test quality player (or not).  Trends are easy to spot in such graphs - and Marsh's seems likely to steady at around 30, significantly below the Test batsman's Mendoza line of 40.

Perhaps it's not about youth, it's about situation.  Taking all batsmen as equal, the following graph plots Marsh's average since debut with all those batsmen Australia have used.

As you can see, Marsh's form has slipped below that of the particularly unlamented Phil Hughes and even below the spectacularly out of form Brad Haddin.  So it's not circumstance either.  Marsh simply has plumbed the depths of form not seen since Dean Jones in Pakistan.  It's time to move on.

All averages include the first innings from the current Test in Adelaide, but not the second.

Shaun Marsh's Test Average

Any reason to doubt the return of Shane Watson to the Australian side?  After his excellent 141 on debut at Kandy and a subsequent 81 straight after, Shaun Marsh's form has hit the toilets.  Apart from 44 in his first innings in South Africa (after/during which he suffered a debilitating back injury), his scores have continued to plummet.  With another failure today, it looks increasingly like Shane Watson will return to the Test side and bat 3 while the burgeoning partnership of Ed Cowan and David Warner faces up to the new ball.

Time-Lapse photostudy: Why Australia's batting collapses like an accordion

It's not a matter of good bowling - though it must be said the Indians have bowled well.  Neither is it a matter of a lack of application, unless you're Brad Haddin.  To paraphrase Python (the Holy Grail), it isn't where it grips it - it's a simple question of weight ratios.

Sixty-Six Sigma: Western Australia

Ben Roberts with Matthew Wood

Openers: Shaun Marsh and Wes Robinson

His selection and immediate success in the Australian test team speak for themselves, but Shaun Marsh enjoyed a strong Sheffield Shield season despite being available for only four matches. He averaged 59 with one ton in his 414 runs. Chances are he won't be available for much Shield cricket this summer with higher duties calling but he is of course WA's number one opening batsman.

Wes Robinson was a late starter, having been selected at almost 28 years of age to debut back in 2008. Now nearly 31, it is unlikely that he will push to be selected by the national teams and faces competition from Liam Davis to open with Marsh and/or 19-year old phenom Marcus Harris. Robinson protects the middle order, but does so at an almost glacial pace.

Number Three: Marcus North

Converted opener North is likely to feature at three for the Warriors this term in the absence of a true lynchpin. Both North and Adam Voges have skirted (North more successfully) the fringes of the Australian teams, offer dibbly-dobbly off-breaks to relieve the fast men into the Doctor, and will have to compensate for the loss of Luke Pomersbach, who's taken the year off for mental health reasons. Travis Birt could also enter the equation here.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/clivemoore/6250052095/

Middle Order: Michael Hussey and Adam Voges

One keeps on keeping on in the Australian XI. The other was given his marching orders and can focus on leading WA back to the top of the first-class game. When we doubt him, Hussey almost always speaks for himself - he clean swept the MOTM awards in Sri Lanka and picked up the series title as well. He won't play much though, so Birt or Mitch Marsh are likely to bat here.

Voges' reputation behoves better performances than those he's delivered. Once the power-hitting no. 4 of the future, he's now lucky to retain his place amidst youngsters like Marsh the Younger, Birt, Tom Beaton and Cameron Bancroft. He and North are nearly interchangeable - they average around 42 in First Class cricket, are 32 years of age. Where North's strength is as a leader (surprise, surprise, Australia fans!).

Voges is a respectable bowling average of 34. He's still in WA's top eleven, but only just. Leadership can buy a cricketer more time - think of Mark Taylor's horror run - so expect Voges to struggle for his spot before his captain does.

All-Rounder: Mitchell Marsh

By the age of nineteen, Geoff's younger son has become a bit of a great white hope in Australian cricket. Now, he represents his country, albeit in T20 colours. The hope is premised more on what he does in those coloured clothes as despite a maiden first-class century in 2010/11, he didn't do a whole lot either with bat or ball. Look closely at him this year, Australia, he could still be playing in 2028 or so.

Wicket-keeper: Luke Ronchi, but only just.

Like a number of players in the WA squad, he's been tried and discarded by the Australian team. Ronchi is hard-hitting bat whose form and technique has rather deserted him in recent seasons. Understudy Michael Johnson didn't do a whole lot in his two chances last season, but started the recent first class game against Tasmania.

Spinner: Michael Beer

Until last season, no-one had ever heard of Beer. That was until Shane Warne happened to mention his name and Andrew Hilditch took notice*. A full season (10 matches) for WA had the St. Kilda graduate (see where Shane got the name from?) take 21 wickets at a high average of 46. What stood out about Beer, despite no better than average figures, was his willingness to attack, give the ball flight and create doubt in the batsmen's mind.

Pacemen: Mitchell Johnson, Nathan Coulter-Nile, and Ryan Duffield

I question the ongoing permanence of Mitchell Johnson in the Australian test team, but he remains the leader of his adopted state's fast bowling attack. Despite myriad frustrations with him, we still know that he can turn on an amazing show when he's got his mind right. The Doctor only helps him, as his remarkable 9/82 in last year's Ashes proves.

Coulter-Nile and Duffield are youngsters who delivered exceptional numbers in 2010/11. Coulter-Nile's 21 wickets at 22 in four matches and Duffield's 33 wickets at 23 in seven matches pushed the 31 year old Michael Hogan out of the side. Coulter-Nile has been in particular singled out for high praise from coach Mickey Arthur, who suggests he's the only player in his team "locked in" for future Australian caps.

Who's locked in?

The pace attack is strong, and given its youth is unlikely to shift except for higher honours or injury. The same can be said for Shaun Marsh and Michael Hussey. Mitch Marsh must play, as must Beer - should he not displace Nathan Lyon for an Aussie spot.

What's disappointing?

The failure of Luke Pomersbach to come through as a truly top-end talent is sad for multiple reasons - not least his continuing battle with mental health issues. Mitchell Johnson's Australia tenure isn't over yet, but neither is it on as solid a footing as pre-Ashes.

Who's up next - or alternatively, who's loan bait?

Nathan Rimmington backs up the pace attack with Michael Hogan. Young batsmen Tom Beaton and Cameron Bancroft will be the next picked, while both Ronchi and Michael Johnson could cement the keeper's position with a good season.

* For the purposes of politeness, we have refrained from including our usual explosive swearing when he who shall not be named was, in fact, named.

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