Darren Lehmann, and the decisions he faced

Australia’s cricketing revival has been both stunning and comprehensive. A 3-0 defeat in the Ashes during the Northern Summer was turned into a 5-0 retribution at home; this was quickly followed by a 2-1 win against the no. 1-ranked South Africans on their soil, the first Australian Test series win overseas since 2012 and a team featuring new-age linchpins Matthew Wade, Ed Cowan and Ben Hilfenhaus.

All three players have been cast to the winds in the past twelve months as Cricket Australia chose to replace incumbent visionary Micky Arthur seventeen days before the Ashes and replace him with throwback-in-residence, Darren Lehmann.

Even as far back as Lehmann’s first Test helmed in July, changes were evident. Ed Cowan was repositioned at first drop, David Warner was sent to mend his ways in South Africa – with mixed results – and Ashton Agar’s name appeared when the Australian hierarchy ran their random-spinner-generator. Since that rather eclectic group took the field at Trent Bridge, much has turned around at the top of Australian cricket as 

Lehmann has displayed an almost-prescient ability to make key decisions.

In his eight-month spell at the top, Lehmann has faced seven major decisions with regards the Australian Test cricket team. Which of those has he swatted to the boundary, and which has he edged to the keeper?

How much has Mitchell Johnson carried Australia?

This post isn't so much an answer to the question above, but a graphical comparison of how Mitchell Johnson - once so maligned, so fragile - and his fellow bowlers have stacked up over his six-Test run of supreme dominance.

Times past, the presence of a dominant bowler led to unnerved batsmen taking unwise risks against good quality flingers from the other end - it's a phenomenon noted as early as Bill Lawry's immortal tome, Run Digger when the fearsome pace and questionable action Charlie Griffith had the Australians touring the Windies in 1964-65 take risks against Wes Hall.

The alternate sees one bowler collecting on the fine work of a group - while still requiring much of the bowler, extra pressure exerted by his teammates plays on batsmen's minds and creates more wicket-taking opportunities. For examples of this, see the West Indian attacks of the 1980s and almost any Australian attack from 1993 to 2007.

This Australian attack isn't necessarily one to be feared (they had a bowling strength of 28.58 for the second innings at Centurion, a good-but-not-great score), but they do their job. It turns out they're really good at doing a job.

Just how good has Mitchell Johnson been?

That good.

Not only has Johnson lowered all the three key bowling stats since his last Test bow in last year's ill-fated tour to India, but he has (mostly) done so by an astonishing margin. For a player with 50 Tests' experience to lower his bowling average by a full 11% and Strike Rate by 10% is, well, almost unprecedented.

2013 Ashes draft: The Results

Two weeks after the conclusion of the Ashes, it’s time to evaluate the Ashes draft that took place before the series began.  In that draft, Dave Siddall and I selected sides with the object of evaluating who the series’ best players might be. 

The results and their performances over the course of the five-match Test series are listed below.

Siddall’s Squad

Player	Draft no.	Runs	Dism.	Avg	Wkts	Conc.	Avg
SR Watson	5 (10)	418	10	41.80	2	179	89.50
EJM Cowan	11 (22)	14	2	7.00
IR Bell	7 (14)	562	9	62.44
JM Bairstow	8 (16)	203	7	29.00
MJ Clarke	4 (8)	381	8	47.62	0	6
UT Khawaja	9 (18)	114	6	19.00
MJ Prior	2 (4)	133	7	19.00
SCJ Broad	6 (12)	179	7	25.57	22	604	27.45
JL Pattinson	3 (6)	72	2	36.00	7	307	43.85
TT Bresnan	10 (20)	103	4	25.75	10	296	29.60
JM Anderson	1 (2)	36	5	7.20	22	651	29.59
NM Lyon	12 (24)	12	2	6.00	9	303	33.66
PJ Hughes	13 (26)	72	3	27.66
Totals	-	2299	72	31.93	72	2167	30.10

The Other Mob

Player	Draft no.	Runs	Dism.	Avg	Wkts	Conc.	Avg
AN Cook	1 (1)	277	10	27.70
JE Root	6 (11)	339	9	37.66	3	34	11.33
CJL Rogers	9 (17)	367	9	40.77
IJL Trott	2 (3)	293	10	29.30	1	28	28.00
KP Pietersen	3 (5)	388	10	38.80
SPD Smith	12 (23)	345	9	38.33	4	106	26.50
BJ Haddin	13 (25)	206	9	22.88	-	-	-
GP Swann	5 (9)	126	5	25.20	26	755	29.03
PM Siddle	4 (7)	84	8	10.50	17	537	31.58
MA Starc	7 (13)	114	6	19.00	11	357	32.45
ST Finn	8 (17)	2	1	2.00	2	117	58.50
JM Bird	11 (21)	2	0		2	125	62.50
JP Faulkner	10 (19)	45	2	22.50	6	98	16.33
Totals	-	2588	88	29.41	72	2157	29.96

I think based on the above stats, we can suggest that Siddall’s Side narrowly edged the contest as Shane Watson’s 176 ironically led his side to victory and made for a far closer contest than the actual Ashes series. 

Had either side taken a flier on Ryan Harris, however, the result would have been very different.  Given the draft took place just prior to the firing of a coach who favoured youth over experience, Harris’ injury history made him a difficult selection.

The no. 1 selection overall (Alastair Cook) was probably the biggest failure of the draft,  but Jonathon Trott was also disappointing.  Without question the best late-round “finds” were Chris Rogers and Tim Bresnan, while the player of the series – Ian Bell – was Siddall’s seventh pick.  This suggests that all the pre-series “form” guidelines were based almost entirely on educated guesswork.

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Drafting the 2013 Ashes

Part 1: The Elite

Part 2: The Foot Soldiers

Part 3: Nature's Lower Middle Order

Part 4: The Dregs

Part 5: Reflections