Teen millionaire comparison: Luke Shaw vs. Calum Chambers

The £12 million (rising to 16 million) paid for young Southampton right-back Calum Chambers might best exhibit the premium placed on potential in the English Premier League. The nineteen year-old joined the Gunners this week for a fee around half of that paid by Manchester United for line-mate Luke Shaw, who travelled north for a sum thought to be around £30 million.

There are a few subtle differences between the pair, however. Firstly, Chambers can’t possibly expect to earn the reputed £100,000 per week. This is probably in part because he hasn’t yet played for England, nor apparently interested the club he supported as a boy. And – perhaps – finally, while a quality player and precisely no grumbling has accompanied his transfer, Chambers’ performances for the Saints last year didn’t actually inspire a lot of success (he might be fitter, though).

Today's transfer nonsense: Vermaelen for Smalling

Let's take a brief break from the World Cup to talk about a transfer rumour involving two players currently playing (or riding the pine) in Brazil.

It has recently been suggested that Manchester United boss Louis van Gaal has decided to bid for Arsenal defender Thomas Vermaelen. The Belgian, who had a fine start to his Arsenal career, is now Arsene Wenger's "emergency defender", used most often when Laurent Koscielny, Per Mertesacker or Kieren Gibbs are unavailable (for Gibbs, read: injured).

At 28 and fending off Jan Vertonghen for his place beside Vincent Kompany at the heart of Belgium's defence, it’s logical to assume that Vermaelen wants first-team football; United certainly have money to burn that may raise his earnings above what the Gunners are willing (or able) to offer.

However, the rumour suggests Vermaelen’s current manager Arsene Wenger wants a return that includes a transfer fee and one of Tom Cleverley or Chris Smalling.

While possible, it’s unlikely that van Gaal would sanction such a move for several reasons. Both Smalling and Cleverley fit into the coach’s modus operandi as young players malleable to his methods; the Englishman is also four years younger than his supposed upgrade. Smalling is also United’s emergency right-back, while both midfielder and defender are English and therefore come at a FFP-induced premium.

While data rarely drives a transfer, especially in the case of Louis van Gaal, let's examine why the numbers don't like a Smalling-for-Vermaelen swap straight up – let alone with a transfer fee involved. Most of the data that follows comes from a pilot project that tracks each player's individual plus/minus throughout the course of the season. How each player’s team performed during those minutes give us an idea of how he compares to his team (and teammates).

Individual plus/minus: Aston Villa, Cardiff City, Manchester United, Southampton & Tottenham Hotspur - 11th May 2014

Statistics valid before games on May 11^th.

Aston Villa

Player	G	Min	GS	GA	+/-	Scored/90	Conc/90	Team GD
Guzan	37	3330	39	58	-19	1.054	1.568	-19
Westwood	34	3007	34	53	-19	1.018	1.586	-19
Delph	33	2913	36	49	-13	1.112	1.514	-19
Vlaar	31	2715	35	44	-9	1.160	1.459	-19
Weimann	36	2564	34	43	-9	1.193	1.509	-19
Bacuna	34	2511	30	44	-14	1.075	1.577	-19
Baker	29	2384	25	41	-16	0.944	1.548	-19
Agbonlahor	29	2372	24	35	-11	0.911	1.328	-19
Clark	27	2206	30	38	-8	1.224	1.550	-19
Benteke	26	2170	26	38	-12	1.078	1.576	-19
El Ahmadi	30	2146	26	40	-14	1.090	1.678	-19
Lowton	22	1683	21	33	-12	1.123	1.765	-19
Luna	17	1381	15	18	-3	0.978	1.173	-19
Bertrand	15	1301	18	28	-10	1.245	1.937	-19
Albrighton	19	967	13	20	-7	1.210	1.861	-19
Kozak	14	781	10	9	1	1.152	1.037	-19
Tonev	17	596	6	8	-2	0.906	1.208	-19
Sylla	11	548	5	10	-5	0.821	1.642	-19
Holt	10	376	2	6	-4	0.479	1.436	-19
Bennett	5	244	0	2	-2	0.000	0.738	-19
Bowery	8	188	2	2	0	0.957	0.957	-19
Herd	2	171	1	4	-3	0.526	2.105	-19
Okore	3	167	1	3	-2	0.539	1.617	-19
Helenius	3	49	0	1	-1	0.000	1.837	-19
Robinson	3	39	0	3	-3	0.000	6.923	-19
Grealish	1	2.00	0	2	-2	0.000	90.000	-19