Teen millionaire comparison: Luke Shaw vs. Calum Chambers

The £12 million (rising to 16 million) paid for young Southampton right-back Calum Chambers might best exhibit the premium placed on potential in the English Premier League. The nineteen year-old joined the Gunners this week for a fee around half of that paid by Manchester United for line-mate Luke Shaw, who travelled north for a sum thought to be around £30 million.

There are a few subtle differences between the pair, however. Firstly, Chambers can’t possibly expect to earn the reputed £100,000 per week. This is probably in part because he hasn’t yet played for England, nor apparently interested the club he supported as a boy. And – perhaps – finally, while a quality player and precisely no grumbling has accompanied his transfer, Chambers’ performances for the Saints last year didn’t actually inspire a lot of success (he might be fitter, though).

Today's transfer nonsense: Vermaelen for Smalling

Let's take a brief break from the World Cup to talk about a transfer rumour involving two players currently playing (or riding the pine) in Brazil.

It has recently been suggested that Manchester United boss Louis van Gaal has decided to bid for Arsenal defender Thomas Vermaelen. The Belgian, who had a fine start to his Arsenal career, is now Arsene Wenger's "emergency defender", used most often when Laurent Koscielny, Per Mertesacker or Kieren Gibbs are unavailable (for Gibbs, read: injured).

At 28 and fending off Jan Vertonghen for his place beside Vincent Kompany at the heart of Belgium's defence, it’s logical to assume that Vermaelen wants first-team football; United certainly have money to burn that may raise his earnings above what the Gunners are willing (or able) to offer.

However, the rumour suggests Vermaelen’s current manager Arsene Wenger wants a return that includes a transfer fee and one of Tom Cleverley or Chris Smalling.

While possible, it’s unlikely that van Gaal would sanction such a move for several reasons. Both Smalling and Cleverley fit into the coach’s modus operandi as young players malleable to his methods; the Englishman is also four years younger than his supposed upgrade. Smalling is also United’s emergency right-back, while both midfielder and defender are English and therefore come at a FFP-induced premium.

While data rarely drives a transfer, especially in the case of Louis van Gaal, let's examine why the numbers don't like a Smalling-for-Vermaelen swap straight up – let alone with a transfer fee involved. Most of the data that follows comes from a pilot project that tracks each player's individual plus/minus throughout the course of the season. How each player’s team performed during those minutes give us an idea of how he compares to his team (and teammates).

FA Cup Final preview

The English FA Cup has long been thought of as the crowning jewel of that nation’s football season. For a country in which the term “second season” usually has a very different meaning, a cup competition interspersed amongst the sweaty buildup to the season’s final days is meant to provide the most tangible drama available before everyone takes a nice Bex and retires for a three-month long siesta.

This year’s Cup Final will be played today at Wembley, and features an Arsenal team that hopes to break a nine-year title drought and Hull City, whose trophyless dates back to 1965-66 when they triumphed in England’s third tier.

Hull City come into the games as palpable underdogs and haven’t won since the 5^th of April. That victory took them to twelfth in the Premiership before more recent results have slipped the club to sixteenth and within sight of relegation. The club’s two most potent attackers, strikers Nikica Jelavic and Shane Long, are both ineligible for the matchup after having already played FA Cup matches this season for Everton and West Bromwich Albion.

I'm a Tiger!  Raawr!
courtesy: eng.wikipedia.org

Their replacements will likely be Yannick Sagbo and Matty Fryatt, journeymen players whose best hope will be to capitalize on any potential poacher’s chances that come their way. This is football writer’s code for “not as good as the other guys”.

Manager Steve Bruce is likely to field a team that revolves around a midfield more balanced than most in the Premier League; the club’s midfield trio include Tottenham expats Tom Huddlestone and Jake Livermore with Slovenian mainstay Robert Koren. The crown jewel undoubtedly Huddlestone (no, not Loki), whose ability to spray accurate, lengthy through balls betwixt defences remains somehow unmissed by England bos Roy Hodgson.

The Tigers have more than a modicum of hope, however. Few teams have been as capable of mental disintegration over the past decade as their opponents, The Arsenal. This iteration of the Gunners however has a few pieces that were missing in former years, namely central midfielder Aaron Ramsey’s A-game and the second-striking wizardry of Mesut Ozil.-

After all the hype that (probably fairly) accompanied his arrival at the Emirates stadium, Ozil has been a disappointment in 2013-14. It says much of the fabled German that most of his influence has come about as a result of his presence rather than as a result of appreciable moments of pure skill; manager Arsene Wenger should certainly hope that all his featured player requires is a stage with sufficient exposure.

Ozil’s relative absence has been made up for in part by the barnstorming season experienced by Aaron Ramsey. He last played in an FA Cup final with Cardiff City in 2008 only weeks before his transfer to North London and has waited several years for his health to catch up to his talent. With a defence led by Per Mertesacker and Laurent Koscielny far improved from seasons previous, elimination games tend to highlight Arsenal’s real point of weakness – their aforementioned tendency to freeze.

While theories abound, no-one can quite explain why a team with as much footballing nous as the Gunners tend to freak out when finding themselves in positions of power. Popular hypotheses include them buying too far into Wenger’s we-are-a-young-team Kool-Aid, that the men in red “sense the occasion” (in the bad way), or that they just don’t know how to win. The distinctive proof of the club’s poor record in big matches than the 2009 League Cup Final, where they lost to Birmingham City – a team who would then be relegated.

The similarities between the two situations are all too obvious for Gooner fans.

The match will likely be a close one – not since 2003-04, where Manchester United spiflicated low-riders Millwall, has the FA Cup Final produced a margin of over a goal. This, and the presence of difference-makers like Ozil, Ramsey and Huddlestone, adds to the promise of a great match.

Prediction: Hull City 1-1 victors on penalties, with Tom Huddlestone Man of the Match.

EPL: Re-installing Arsenal

After a disappointing 3-1 defeat to Aston Villa on the season’s opening day, speculative glare has fallen upon Arsenal and their unsuccessful efforts to improve their squad.  Despite controlling the ball for long periods against the Clarets, the Gunners seemed strangely faceless – perhaps a side effect of Gervinho’s departure two weeks ago.

Over the past number of years, Arsenal have reinforced sparingly and with haphazard success.  Purchases like Mikel Arteta and Per Mertesacker have proven generally effective and Santi Cazorla is a star, but other players in whom manager Arsene Wenger has placed much faith (and not inconsiderable investment) have yet to fully work out.

While rivals such as Chelsea and Spurs appearing flush with vibrant talent and opportunity, it would take only the most ardent optimist to suggest the same of the Arsenal.  It’s not only the club’s player list that needs refreshing; perhaps the club requires a reboot. 

Or, more appropriately, a complete re-install.  The hardware has been upgraded at great cost, the processor still seems to have some life and the software is capable of getting the job done, but the system is not running smoothly or easily.  In computer parlance, this is usually a symptom of tiny corruptions in key parts of the operating system; rather than repair these one by one, it’s easier and cheaper to wipe the slate and hope you’ve kept the backup discs. 

For the lads at the Emirates, this doesn’t mean selling their best players or throwing money at others – though this is usually the way such things happen and Wenger has priors.  Perhaps the best way to rejuvenate a stale squad might simply be to give them a greater sense of identity. 

While Arsenal have  an marginally impressive spread of talent – Cazorla is one of the Premiership’s more creative types, while all of Mertesacker, Laurent Koscielny and Thomas Vermaelen are all first-choice for respective international sides of exceptional quality – the overall façade presented by the playing group is not one of a club itching to shape their own destiny, but of a team having it thrust upon them.  While Carl Jenkinson, Kieran Gibbs and Ramsey are very nice pieces, even the most one-eyed Gooner should admit that they are hardly the types of players to stamp their authority on a team.  The same could be said of Bacary Sagna, Wojciech Szczesny and Arteta.   Jack Wilshere has the potential to be such a iconic player, but will he turn into that guy consistently, or be overwhelmed by the surrounding tepid waters?

To borrow a much-used phrase, the whole has somehow become less than the sum of its parts.

After Manchester United lost the 2011-12 Premiership on goal difference, former manager Sir Alex Ferguson promised himself that the club would never lose out in such circumstances again.  The defensive mindset of the prior three years was cast to the netherworld and United made one single purchase to spearhead to a goal difference of 43 and a return to the league’s pinnacle.  The mindset came first, and it’s on-field embodiment arrived shortly thereafter.

The same can happen at the Emirates.  However, will Arsene Wenger, Ivan Gazidis or even Stan Kroenke recognize the opportunity?

EPL finally overcomes offseason inertia

The most pressing questions facing the English Premier League as the offseason began were:

Question: Will Luis Suarez stay at Liverpool?

Answer, May 30^th: Likely, but we don’t know

Answer, August 14^th: Likely, but we don’t know

Q. How will David Moyes fare as Manchester United manager?

Answer, May 30^th: Your guess is as good as mine

Answer, August 14^th: Your guess is as good as mine

Q. Will Arsenal spend big (or at least moderately) in the transfer window

Answer, May 30^th: Who can tell?

Answer, August 14^th: Who can tell?

Q. Does Wayne Rooney really want to leave Manchester United, and if so, will they sell him?

Answer, May 30^th: Probably, and probably not

Answer, August 14^th: Probably, and probably not

Q. Can Tottenham rebuff interest in Gareth Bale from bigger clubs in the long-term

Answer, May 30^th: Maybe for a while, but it risks destabilizing the team

Answer, August 14^th: Maybe for a while, but it risks destabilizing the team

Q. How will Manuel Pellegrini fit in as Manchester City manager?

Answer, May 30^th: He’ll favour attacking football and be more popular than Mancini, but we can only guess

Answer, August 14^th: He’ll favour attacking football and be more popular than Mancini, but we can only guess

You get the picture.  It’s time for the previews, endless transfer punditry and assumptive journalism to end and for football to start.  This close season has not produced one answer to any big question of relevance: before last term ended, we knew Jose Mourinho’s return to Chelsea and Manuel Pellegrini’s move to Man City were faits d’accompli, the baton had been passed between Scots at Old Trafford and that some clubs were going to remodel themselves almost entirely.  For most of the league, however, it has been an offseason marked by inertia.

The Arsenal debate: Vermaelen, Koscielny or Mertesacker?

That Arsenal won in Munich on Wednesday is no real surprise: it has been a recent disturbing tendency of the Gooners to perform valiantly in causes already cast unto the wind. 

However, the Highbury/Emirati gallantry has provided pundits on the Guardian’s Football Weekly podcast with more ammunition for the argument that the North Londoners’ best central defensive partnership doesn’t actually include their captain, Belgian Thomas Vermaelen.

We can eliminate the comical Johan Djourou and (perhaps Wenger’s worst-ever signing) Sebastien Squillaci from real First Team contention.  The discussion revolves around the best combination of the short, but effective freelancer Vermaelen; the peg-legged but smart and aerially-proficient Per Mertesacker; and jack of all trades Laurent Koscielny.

The table below examines how effective each Arsenal pairing has been so far in season 2012-13.  Every match the Gunners have played since the first EPL match of the season has been taken into account (and points awarded for victories/draws in Cups competitions). 

Statistics are like bikinis.  What they reveal is interesting, but what they hide is vital.  This table is taken in complete isolation, and disregards the defensive capabilities of the ‘keeper and other players.  However, it still makes for interesting reading.  As the Guardian’s analysts tacitly decided, perhaps the Arsenal captain’s favoured position may not actually be best for the team.

Central defensive combination	Games	Avg Conceded	Avg Scored	Wins	Draws	Losses	Points/ game
Vermaelen/Mertesacker	22	1.09	1.68	11	3	8	1.64
Koscielny/Mertesacker*	11	1.27	2.00	5	5	0	1.82
Koscielny/Vermaelen	6	1.67	2.00	2	1	3	1.17
Koscielny/Djourou	1	5.00	7.00	1	0	0	3.00
Vermaelen/Squillaci	1	2.00	1.00	0	0	1	0.00
Mertesacker/Jenkinson	1	0.00	1.00	1	0	0	3.00

*For many of the eleven matches in which Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker partnered each other, Vermaelen was deployed at left-back as either first-choice or in the event of injury/Andre Santos.

Three things: Chelsea may regret Lukaku absence

Three things we noticed from the EPL this week:

Chelsea might regret loaning out Romelu Lukaku

Romelu Lukaku arrived at Stamford Bridge before last season at a significant cost: a reported 18 million pounds from Belgian club Anderlecht. Barely eighteen when he arrived, the boy-mountain spent most of last season on the bench and hated it. Despite impressing on the Blues' pre-season US tour, Lukaku found himself “gaining first-team experience” at West Brom this year and the Blues look like they may regret his temporary departure. His spell in the Midlands has so far been telling.

The Blues pulled out a 1-0 win against an uncompromising Stoke City at home on Saturday where none of their myriad new tricksy attacking types were able to really trouble the brutally efficient Stoke defense. While this new look can produce some wonderful football, the Blues appear to be missing a second look.

If those short-ish types aren't firing in the goals then the club – like the team they've attempted to emulate, Barcelona – seems to lack offensive versatility. Barca had to pay heavily to get Zlatan Ibrahimovic, as Chelsea did for the talented Lukaku; it costs money for big, strong and skilled. Perhaps with their dearth of options, it's time to explore what Lukaku can create for the Stamford Bridge unit.

Arsenal are looking good

Despite needing a late goal from Laurent Koscielny to snatch a draw, the Gunners played impressively at the Etihad Stadium. Champions Manchester City were penned back time and again by a quality combination of youth and experience; indeed, they may not have scored themselves if not for a mistake by third-string goalkeeper Vito Mannone.

Lukas Podolski, while not scoring bagfuls, has been impressive while Gervinho, not new signing Olivier Giroud, may eventually be the cetnre-forward to replace Robin van Persie.

Key to this solid start has been the central defensive partnership of Per Mertesacker and Koscielny. Only weeks ago we were suggesting Mertesacker's greatest contribution may come as stability from the bench, but he's been the Premiership's outstanding centre-back throughout the first four games and the club hardly missed resident Belgian Thomas Vermaelen.

Aston Villa – relegation fodder?

Maybe Paul Lambert began drinking his own Kool-Aid, but the world's most boring man may have bitten off more than he could chew in Birmingham. Even though last weekend provided some encouraging signs, Aston Villa struggled mightily in their 4-1 defeat to the defensively-inept Southampton. This year, Lambert just doesn't have the talent to work with in order to avoid a relegation battle.

This season's reinforcements have mostly come from lower divisions, like Matthew Lowton who only months ago was playing in League One. Although they may end up becoming quality players, these lower-tier recruits have acclimatise to the Big Show. After shedding most of the high-earners from their wage bill, Villa appear shorn of quality all over the park – comparing their squad from now to five years ago is simply amazing.

Unless you're Roberto Martinez, you can't sell your best players each year and expect to maintain your Premiership status. Hang on – now their constant inquiries as to his availability suddenly makes more sense.

Liverpool, not Arsenal, right for Sahin

Nuri Sahin appears close to signing on loan for Brendan Rodgers' new Liverpool. The temporary (?) transfer promises to add to a midfield that didn't convincingly implement a new pass 'n' press gameplan in an opening day loss to West Bromwich Albion.

Turkish playmaker Sahin conducted the exquisite Borussia Dortmund midfield for several seasons before moving to current club Real Madrid before last season. He promptly found himself a fixture on the bench, squeezed out in preference of the powerful triumvirate of Sami Khedira, Xabi Alonso and Mesut Ӧzil. He has the nous, physique and game to make a significant contribution to the Anfield mob this season.

It had been thought that Sahin would move to Arsenal, perhaps as a direct replacement for Alex Song who, shortly after Robin van Persie, discovered the not-so-secret tunnel that allows players to escape from the Emirates. Now a deal with Liverpool seems imminent and more the better for the player.

Rodgers' preferred tactical system demands his central midfielders be mobile, efficient and to play both attack and defence. It doesn't hurt if they can pass, either. If the centre-mids overcommit or don't/can't harry effectively, the possession-heavy game style becomes exposed to counter-attack. Swansea City's performances while implementing a pass-press approach earned Rodgers the Liverpool job, but the Reds don't quite have the horses to completely adopt either the pass or the press: Rodgers' current midfield features too many players unable to adapt their games to his liking.

Big-ticket Kenny Dalglish items Charlie Adam and Jordan Henderson haven't synched well with the Rodgers manifesto; academy graduates Jonjo Shelvey and Jay Spearing may never. Acquiring another pivot players became paramount before harrier Lucas Leiva or new buy Joe Allen succumbed to injury or fatigue. Sahin would play heaps and could even conceivably become Liverpool's featured player.

While Arsenal leapt at the opportunity to bring in Sahin, negotiations with Real Madrid have hardly been smooth. Sahin would fit – apart from Real, there are few places he wouldn't – but would be another class player at a club which seems allergic to grunt. Even Song, who ostensibly occupied the defensive midfield position for five years, thought of himself as more playmaker than combatant.

The Gunners – like many other EPL squads – lack a Tiote-type, paid primarily to win back possession; at Anfield, the press (and Lucas) this need is minimised. Sahin at Arsenal would duplicate talent – he'd be very handy, but not address the club's most pressing need. While surrounded by Jack Wilshere, Aaron Ramsey, Mikel Arteta and, most blindingly, Santi Cazorla, Sahin may never develop into the “franchise player” he could become.

This makes the impending move to Merseyside the best option – for Nuri Sahin, and football watchers everywhere.

(Original article date: 24th August)

What Robin van Persie could mean to Manchester United

With Arsenal captain Robin van Persie certain to sign for Manchester United, the balance of power in the English Premier League shifts again towards the country's northwest. Despite Arsenal's best efforts to provide him with support in the form of the deepest squad of his tenure at the Emirates, van Persie's quest for self-actualisation through silverware now continues at Old Trafford.

Manchester United supporters will be happy with the purchase: it cements their position as a destination club, goals are always welcome and the transfer fee – despite reaching a rumoured ₤24 million – is quite justifiable should the van Persie provide even three years of quality play.

He will (likely) start at the pointy end of Sir Alex Ferguson's preferred one-striker formations, the 4-4-1-1 or 4-2-3-1. This means, despite ink suggesting other centre-forwards will be marginalised, it seems far more likely that fellow new signing Shinji Kagawa or established wide men like Ashley Young will be most affected. With Kagawa, Tom Cleverley, youngster Nick Powell, Rooney and Young all probably best employed behind the striker, pessimists suggest the club has too many players in competition for one role.

That Ferguson purchased Kagawa this summer, Young last year, as well as advancing Cleverley, suggests the United manager favours a mobile, multifocal attack where numerous players are able to threaten opposing defences. This flexibility fits with his formation preference, which ostensibly affords better support for an creaking central midfield from a mobile forward corps. When attacking, the mosquito-fleet forwards can then run at defences rather than depending upon glamour balls to isolated target men.

United's best play this century came from 2007-2009 with a fluid 4-3-3. When they effectively replaced the versatile Cristiano Ronaldo with the more orthodox Dimitar Berbatov, an element of that interoperability was lost.

Although he was hardly a failure, it was perhaps a sense of tactical straightforwardness which led to Berbatov's purchase in 2008. In spite of a reported ₤30 million price tag, Berbatov was rarely deployed in big matches and almost never by himself: his lack of acumen and (apparently) inclination reducing his effectiveness in the critical poacher's role. Berbatov's languor and uncanny lead-up play has always been suited best to the 4-4-2. As United have attempted to increase their flexibility, Berbatov has become a bench fixture. van Persie is not nearly so limited.

Although sometimes very effective – c.f. Martin O'Neill's success at Aston Villa and Sunderland – it is tactical naïveté to suggest that “defenders defend, attackers attack and midfielders link the two”. When competing against the best clubs in the world, such simplicity is quickly rendered obsolete, and the flat, age-old 4-4-2 formation is now utilised less and less in truly elite teams.

Courtesy: guardian.co.uk

The lessons taught by Champions League drubbings against Barcelona may have been learnt. Messi, Xavi and Iniesta, the three most important players in what was popularly acknowledged as the best team in recent memory, all prefer to operate centrally. Of course there are differences and these changes may just be a stall until Ferguson develops or acquires a supertalented central hub. Ferguson may opt to shuffle – no-one really knows what the old fox has in mind: signing Robin van Persie could simply be the managerial equivalent of a mid-life crisis sports car.

However, optimists could perhaps see him as the final step in United's journey towards fully embracing a more fluid tactical system.

Arsenal finally swimming in the deep end

courtesy: guardian.co.uk/football

With their acquisition of Málaga's Santi Cazorla, Arsenal have for the third time this summer acquired a potential Premier League star. At worst, the twenty-seven year old will consign the somewhat-resurgent Tomas Rosicky and a turgid Andrei Arshavin to the North London scrapheap. At an unlikely best, his signature may even convince Robin van Persie to stay at the Emirates Stadium.

A classy attacking midfielder with a corner-seeking free kick, Cazorla will inherit the role of creative hub made vacant three times in recent seasons by injury and infirmity: Jack Wilshere's foot refuses to heal properly, Cesc Fabregas' homesickness finally bested him and Samir Nasri contracted a distressingly severe case of wandering-eye-syndrome (not a real condition). In Arsene Wenger's preferred 4-2-3-1 formation, Cazorla is liable to start in the middle behind van Persie or fellow newbie Olivier Giroud.

The squad has been reshaped dramatically from August last year. Fuelled by the 8-2 drubbing at the hands of Manchester United, Wenger threw cash to the four corners of Europe and came up with Mikel Arteta, Andre Santos, Chu-Young Park and Per Mertesacker. In retrospect, only Arteta performed to his potential during 2011-12, but each – except the lamentable Park – played a role in salvaging Arsenal's season.

With Podolski, Giroud and now Cazorla arriving however, that quartet's greatest contributions may not come as absolute first-teamers. Apart from (maybe) Arteta, not one of these four purchases projects in Arsenal's best XI. This isn't a bad thing, though: they provide the quality squad depth Arsenal has needed since The Invincibles.

The Dempsey Dilemma

courtesy: mlssoccer.com

Clint Dempsey is having another fantastic – and well-documented – season for Fulham. In fact, his conspicuous excellence for three successive managers in concert with a slowly expiring contact (June 2013) mean England's most scurrilous have started to chirrup about a potential move to a “bigger” club.

Is he good enough? Can he deliver in the Champions League?

In all honesty, it's unlikely to matter.

The simple fact is that Clint Dempsey may move on from Fulham, but it is hardly likely to be for a significant fee. He is caught in a quandary where his age (29) and skill-set (floating attacker) make him cute to suitors – the quote-unquote “bigger” clubs – but not that attractive.

That said, not ₤12-15 million attractive, which is a sum nearing that for which Fulham are likely to ask.

The Whites will have to ask for that significant price for many reasons. Because he's been their most potent attacking threat in nearly half a century and debatably their best player (not wash-up) since Johnny Haynes. Dempsey, rapping an' all, is one of – if not the – most marketable Fulham players and continues a great recent Fulham tradition of attracting a rather large market across the Atlantic.

And he provided the goal or assist for 49% of all Fulham's Premiership scores this year. That level of contribution is amongst Europe's elite.

Yet despite the plaudits and numbers, Dempsey's signature will hardly going to inspire fan confidence for a side that spends big on him. “Big” club fans to want reputations as well as proven history – witness the negative reaction to the solid Mikel Arteta signing for Arsenal. Spending the kind of cash Fulham would demand for a guy who would in effect become a bit-part player, doesn't look like good business. This is even more true considering the transfer-induced boost in Dempsey's salary, would be accompanied by occasional games rather than the week-in, week-out football which allowed him to blossom at Craven Cottage.

Should he hope for a move, “Deuce” can however rely on one redeeming factor. Despite football's Moneyball manifesto dying an inglorious Red death, there is one statistic which regularly translates to success: proven goalscoring ability. Papiss Demba Cisse, Demba Ba and Yakubu have elegantly proven this season that the ability to score goals at a top European league (especially in the Premiership) is worth the investment.

Despite this, it's hard to see Clint Dempsey leaving West London this summer. While he could perhaps thicken his wallet, it's hard to see any club willing to pay him and a likely upscale transfer fee.

The EPL run home "analyzed"

As the Premier League season rampages towards the Manchester derby which will (probably) decide the ultimate route and destination of this season's victory parade, we've got enough data from the season in progress to suggest how results for the rest of the season plays out.  The season is now thirty games old for each club, with the last eight enough to determine who raises the cup this season, which of the upstart clubs finishes with a well-earned chance at European football and which clubs will be facing derbies next season with the likes of MK Dons, Watford or Burnley.

So far, the information that may be the most telling as we enter the season's waning weeks is how each of the teams in the battle to play Champions League football next season got to be where they now are.
The table below includes the five teams currently slated to play continental football next season. It indicates what percentage of available points they have secured against opposition in different parts of the table. For example, Manchester City have played four times against teams currently in the relegation zone and won each encounter. Therefore, they have attained 100% of the points available from those four matches. Chelsea, however, have managed only two wins and a draw from their four encounters with current drop-zone residents – a more sickly 58%.

	Available points achieved by club (%):
Versus teams:	Man United	Man City	Arsenal	Tottenham	Chelsea
In relegation zone	100	100	78	87	58
Are relegation threatened	86	100	52	90	76
In table's bottom half	90	88	64	83	56
“Mid-table”	79	65	71	69	52
In table's top half	69	67	56	42	49
League Top 5	76	83	33	21	29
Total	81	78	64	61	56

For the purposes of this illustration, “Mid-table” includes all teams not currently occupying European slots or in danger of relegation. This means all teams from position 6 – 15 are included, no matter how turgid their play or how daunting their final fixtures appear).  Data correct to Thursday, March 29th.

We can automatically surmise that this season's Premier League has more of a Spanish – or Scottish – appearance to it. The lack competition at the top is galling - and even worse in graphical form (click to enlarge the graph).  While it's expected that clubs lose more points against higher opposition, for a league which champions itself as the most even in Europe, the strength of the Manchester clubs is starkly apparent.

Click to enlarge.

This term displays a major duopoly as the twinn'd Manchester clubs have been markedly more adept at taking points from other so-called “elite” opponents.

 This bodes well for City, in particular, as their April 30^th derby approaches – soon after a trip to Arsenal. Given their record, prior games against mid-table Norwich City and West Brom could provide more hurdlese than their matches against the Red Devils and Gunners. 


Once we depart Manchester, the numbers are just as revealing. Third and fourth positions are the subject of another local rivalry, as despite an ugly start to the season, Arsenal have earned their current tabular position, while Spurs appear a team of bullies. Redknapp's men have extracted only a win and two draws from eight encounters with Top 5 opponents (five points from twenty-four). For Chelsea, these numbers show definitively the poor fit between players and former manager Andre Villas-Boas: last year, Carlo Ancelotti was canned after accumulating more points (by percentage) against every category of opposition.

On Internet Comments

This is why I love – and hate – the internet.

It emerged last Monday that every time Aaron Ramsey scores for Arsenal, a really famous person dies. Inspired by some comments to a similar story run in The Sun, it's interesting to ponder what would happen if he scores a hat-trick.

This is perhaps the first story in ages that I've bothered reading the comments to, simply because it draws such a long bow. For the longest time, Internet comments have appealed to some for their sense of the insane, but from time to time, they're worth a read. In the Sun, contributions from readers verge from enjoying the tenuous, amusing spirit of the article to being quite malicious.

This wasn't journalism, and (hopefully) nor was it intended that way. Paradoxically, however, on the sidebar of The Sun's website is some alleged journalism. It was titled “Did Whitney Houston 'binge on drugs and alcohol to numb pain of being a secret lesbian?' Don't bother asking me what's behind that link, I didn't read either the story or it's comments. This stuff has always existed, it's just that the internet has given it a louder voice.

The beauty, and sometimes horror, of the interweb is that it gives everyone a publicly accessible voice. Some are worth hearing, if only to make you think. In the immortal words of the cinematic masterpiece Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back, “Everyone … uses that voice to bitch about movies”.

Or in this case, Justin Bieber.

The paradox of the internet is that it gives beautiful creativity – say, XKCD, The Football Ramble and Pun Street – the same voice used by people who can sometimes only be described as hateful. All governed by this mystical branch of magic “Search Engine Optimisation”. The ability to dial up the volume of one's free speech is one of the reasons bills like SOPA and PIPA were fought so strongly. The internet has become a jungle – one which seems remarkably cutthroat and uncaring.

Welcome to the Jungle. Watch it b-b-b-b-bring you to your knees.

The times, they are a-changing

Yesterday, I found one of my all-time favourite lucky finds – an old World Football magazine which proudly boasted to contain full 2006-07 squad lists for every major European league.

As I sat back to enjoy again articles like “Gamble on Govou gets France going” and “Sticky start [at Poland] for Beenhakker”, it struck me at the amount the shape of sport has changed in as little as five years.  That year was a particularly interesting one: Roy Keane earned a reputation as the games’ best young manager as he led Sunderland from bottom of the Championship to runaway winners at his first attempt; Red Star Belgrade sold star striker Nikola Zigic to Racing Santander (who has later moved to Valencia and Birmingham City); while the “Five Young Stars of the Copa Libertadores” were Rafael Sobis, Fabiano Eller, Wason Renteria, Leandro Somoza and Cristian Riveros.

The most striking example of how much the game has progressed is in the amount of player turnover at English clubs.  The table below details the 2006-07 English Premier League squads and how much they have changed over the subsequent five years.

Club	06-07 squad	Players in 11-12 squad	06-07 Players on loan	Total players still in EPL	Relegations
Arsenal	32	7	2	15
Aston Villa	24	2	0	10
Blackburn	29	3	0	6
Bolton	23	3	0	8
Charlton	31	0	0	2	**
Chelsea	20	9	0	13
Everton	26	7	1	13
Fulham	27	0	0	3
Liverpool	27	7	1	14
Man City	26	3	0	8
Man Utd	22	9	0	16
M’Brough	29	4	0	9	*
Newcastle	21	3	0	10	*
Portsmouth	26	2	0	3	*
Reading	26	1	0	5	*
Sheff Utd	32	3	0	2	**
Tottenham	27	6	1	12
Watford	30	3	0	4	*
West Ham	28	3	0	10	*
Wigan	25	2	0	8

Keep in mind this was before set 25-man squads, Financial Fair Play and numerous debt crises and takeovers.  The squads are as listed in “World Soccer” Magazine, October 2006 edition and can include promising youth team players.

With the number of players still in the EPL after five years, it’s not surprising that Watford, Sheffield United and Charlton were relegated that season.