Why Liverpool aren't my choice for champs

Recently, ESPN blogger Musa Okwonga posted an interesting take on which English Premier League team he, a United fan, would prefer to win the title. Specifically, the piece focused on the two title favourites – and United’s most passionate rivals – Manchester City and Liverpool.

His argument essentially matched old and new; the somewhat boorish manner of Manchester City’s ascendence – that many, if not most United fans hope to emulate in 2014-15 – against longstanding disdain for the other Reds and much of what they have long stood.

It’s a great article, and absolutely worth a read. However, I’m compelled to add my own brief spin.

For the length of time I’ve supported United, they’ve been managed by two men – one for nearly 97% of that time. That man, Sir Alex Ferguson, moulded the club into the single most successful entity of football’s modern era behind one simple goal: “To knock Liverpool off their f***ing perch”.

The reasons underlying his vehemence are still somewhat murky and may rest with an imagined slight dating back to his days with Aberdeen and Scotland, but it was fuel enough for Fergie. With his last league title – Manchester United’s twentieth and his thirteenth – Sir Alex Ferguson edged United to a safe margin and the most Championships in league history.

If it weren’t for Sir Alex Ferguson, Manchester United might have less than a handful of titles to show for the past thirty years. The expectation of excellence that took less than twelve months to evaporate may never have evolved. That “success gap” means the club would be almost certainly unrecognizable from the multinational behemoth it is today.

A Liverpool championship, as likely as it now seems, would be their nineteenth and right back near to the mountain’s apex and begin to (further) unravel everything that Alex Ferguson sought after. While the old enemy are playing the most irresistible football and at this point in the season absolutely deserve to win, having them win would counteract part of his legacy immediately upon his exit. It's a little demoralising to see nearly thirty years of his vocation equalled so quickly after his retirement. 

For that reason – almost alone – I’d prefer a City title victory. And I feel dirty all over for saying it.

EPL finally overcomes offseason inertia

The most pressing questions facing the English Premier League as the offseason began were:

Question: Will Luis Suarez stay at Liverpool?

Answer, May 30^th: Likely, but we don’t know

Answer, August 14^th: Likely, but we don’t know

Q. How will David Moyes fare as Manchester United manager?

Answer, May 30^th: Your guess is as good as mine

Answer, August 14^th: Your guess is as good as mine

Q. Will Arsenal spend big (or at least moderately) in the transfer window

Answer, May 30^th: Who can tell?

Answer, August 14^th: Who can tell?

Q. Does Wayne Rooney really want to leave Manchester United, and if so, will they sell him?

Answer, May 30^th: Probably, and probably not

Answer, August 14^th: Probably, and probably not

Q. Can Tottenham rebuff interest in Gareth Bale from bigger clubs in the long-term

Answer, May 30^th: Maybe for a while, but it risks destabilizing the team

Answer, August 14^th: Maybe for a while, but it risks destabilizing the team

Q. How will Manuel Pellegrini fit in as Manchester City manager?

Answer, May 30^th: He’ll favour attacking football and be more popular than Mancini, but we can only guess

Answer, August 14^th: He’ll favour attacking football and be more popular than Mancini, but we can only guess

You get the picture.  It’s time for the previews, endless transfer punditry and assumptive journalism to end and for football to start.  This close season has not produced one answer to any big question of relevance: before last term ended, we knew Jose Mourinho’s return to Chelsea and Manuel Pellegrini’s move to Man City were faits d’accompli, the baton had been passed between Scots at Old Trafford and that some clubs were going to remodel themselves almost entirely.  For most of the league, however, it has been an offseason marked by inertia.

MLS and Manchester City a good match

With MLS seeking again to swell its ranks, the discussion has seemingly moved from where the next franchise will be located – New York City – and onto whom is best positioned to own and run such an enterprise. 

It has emerged that Manchester City’s flush-with owners are interested in soldering together this prometheus, appropriately based in the borough of Flushing.  The new team would serve twin purposes of generating talent for its parent club and increasing City’s brand recognition in the ever-expanding US market.

City’s expansion into the US market seems to have been received positively by fans of MLS as well as Don Garber, as well it should.  The league was recently judged the seventh-most attended on the planet, as has begun regularly producing players of true quality and an open gateway to Europe could provide more exposure in a nation where football highlights rarely make Sportscenter.

Close ties between are commonplace within countries, or continents even - Manchester United have had a longstanding relationship with Belgian club Royal Antwerp.  More recently – and perhaps more similarly as well – the Pozzo family has expanded from their black-and-white binding fiefdoms at Udinese to annex clubs in Spain and England, using them to develop players that they can then either use or sell, usually with a significant sticker price increase.

Any concerns MLS fans have about being home to “feeder” clubs can be assuaged by investigating the benefits of and exposure that having Sheikh Mansour involved in American sport would deliver.

Setting up an expansion franchise, youth academy and building a stadium in the real-estate mire of NYC will cost a bucketful.  Such hard costs coupled with the expense of bringing in players might intimidate a new ownership group and delay fan aggregation – we all love a winner.  Not only would the New York Blues have the opportunity to raid the Sky Blues for loan players, but also the backing to deliver some of the country’s most promising young talent.  They have more money to spend at chiseling out market share than could possibly be needed, no small feat in the City that Never Sleeps.

And perhaps the greatest benefit of all might come from the increased visibility.  The popularity of the English game transcends that of all other major leagues (with the exception of two notable Spanish clubs) and the Citizens’ five-year spending spree has ensured their position at that league’s apex until their patriarch suffers from a case of terminal boredom. 

Links with a league as outgoing as the English Premiership should be actively encouraged.

It is a fundamental truth of business that if a superwealthy investor shows interest in your product, you’re doing something very right or very wrong.  Another reality is that you generally look to involve these multi-multi-multi-billionaires wherever possible, as long as it doesn’t put you out too much – having capital in the bank never hurts.  The continued growth of MLS suggests that Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al Nahyan’s interest isn’t hostile; if the feelers he is putting out are genuine, rest assured that Garber et al will move heaven and earth to make him a part of the league.

Agüero’s curious "tackle" lays bare need for rule change

Following Sergio Agüero’s … enthusiastic … challenge upon David Luiz’s hindquarters during this weekend’s FA Cup Semi-Final, the issue of crude tackles has once again been thrust into football’s spotlight. 

Agüero, who scored a decisive goal in City’s 2-0 triumph, appeared to drop-kick the Chelsea centre-back in the posterior at about the 82-minute mark and escaped without serious censure from referee Chris Foy.  

The incident – which you can view below – appears to show the Argentine beaten for a ball by Luiz, who goes to ground.  Agüero’s response is to go to ground himself, cleats first and no matter whose butt was lay in his way.  The result: a free kick to the Blues.

Should a player commit a poor foul, it is FA policy – barring “special circumstances” – to avoid further punishing players for such infractions.  It is their position that retrospective action would undermine a referee’s control of the game.  This posture assumes of course that the referee had control (and adequate sight-lines) in the first place.

It’s time for that rule to change.  To avoid serious injuries as a result of unduly rough play, the FA needs to seriously consider retrospective punishment.  That Agüero – and Callum McManaman – escaped serious punishment for poorly executed or deliberate feet-first contact is galling and it’s fortunate that their victims weren’t more seriously injured. 

It is a paramount duty of Football Associations to ensure player safety.  In order to do so, perhaps inspiration can come from the Australian Football League.  In the late 1980s, this competition instituted a “trial-by-video” system to eliminate rampant behind the play violence and to compensate for incidents the officiating umpires might have missed.  In so doing injuries as a result of player violence by dint of negligence or vindictiveness has been reduced markedly. 

In the AFL, each case is judged according to a penal matrix which assigns a points value to the incident’s intent (which can be graded intentional, reckless, negligent or accidental), impact (deemed severe, high, medium, low, negligible) and point of contact (was it to the head, groin or body?).  Players who score highly – for example a deliberate punch to the face of an opponent – are in line to receive far harsher sanctions than someone who negligently knees a player to the ribs.  Penalties are then meted out according to a similar system, with good or bad behavior bonds and early guilty pleas serving as multipliers.

Precedents are inadmissible evidence, meaning every player receives the same judgment.  More importantly, each player are charged with protecting player safety and made aware this duty of care is expected of them.  

For football, the point of contact might be adapted to assess how high up the “target” player’s leg impact occurs.

With such a system, Agüero’s challenge might be assessed as reckless, medium and to the upper leg, thus earning a moderately severe ban.

Football Associations across the globe must do more to ensure player safety and avoid cases like Ben Collett, Aaron Ramsey and Eduardo.  This is one way to empower players in taking charge of their own on-field security.  There has been one incident too many.

Graphic: Four-year EPL efficiency

This efficiency study tracks how effective each English Premier League team has been since 2009-10.  It does so by mapping a team's offensive efficiency (measured in shots per goal scored) against their defensive resilience (measured in shots faced per goal conceded).  Data is updated to 22nd February 2012 and so includes Liverpool's recent 5-0 win over Swansea City.

The axes cross at "league average" positions, meaning the graph is divided into relatively even quadrants.

As one would expect, twinn'd Manchester clubs appear to have the greatest cumulative combination of offense and defence, Chelsea's numbers lessened by a misfiring striker and ill-fated flirtations with seductive foreign managers (their 2010 season was probably the most efficient EPL club season in recent history).

Click on the graphic to enlarge.

(c) Balanced Sports

As always, thanks to Ben Mayhew at Experimental 3-6-1 for the idea, sourced over a year ago.

Mario Balotelli joins AC Milan, continues to confuse

Many teams have improved themselves this transfer window.  There have been short-term additions like Sporting KC forward Kei Kamara’s six-month audition with Norwich City, bargains, as well as deals with a view to a long term future (see Zaha, Wilfried and Shea, Brek). 

There has even been the odd case of addition by subtraction.

The most prominent deal of this type involves Mario Balotelli.  His two-plus years playing for Manchester City had exhausted his employers and yesterday he was sent to the red side of Milan for a fee approximating £17 million.

That such a talent as Balotelli was released by City without argument is a sign of the disdain in which he is held at the Etihad campus.  The negatives finally outweighed the positives, with the final straw perhaps coming four weeks ago as the temperamental forward became involved in a physical altercation with coach – and his most prominent backer – Roberto Mancini.

While the deal may help the City dressing room coalesce and focus on overhauling crosstown rivals Manchester United, it also rids the club of their most gifted player.  With Balotelli, there are no absolutes – he every statement about him must be accompanied by a “but”, an “if” or a “when”.

Mario Balotelli is a player with a presence so large that you can’t judge anything he does from only one angle.  He is a colourful, 3D character in a world that paint its characters like Steamboat Willy.  This might be his greatest hurdle in keeping popular sentiment positive: football media often portrays its subjects in unforgiving black and white.

He is the most talented Italian striker to emerge since Antonio Cassano (at least) and also a man who exemplifies persistent problems with authority.  He’s a genius, and a madman.  A word or a sentence isn’t enough to articulate the truth of Mario Balotelli.

A three-dimensional outlook is also the only way to evaluate his transfer to the Fashion City.  He will win games for the Rossoneri, but also frustrate.  It’s a win for Manchester City, but also a loss – talents like Mario emerge twice a decade.  How very Balotelli.

Three things: Chelsea may regret Lukaku absence

Three things we noticed from the EPL this week:

Chelsea might regret loaning out Romelu Lukaku

Romelu Lukaku arrived at Stamford Bridge before last season at a significant cost: a reported 18 million pounds from Belgian club Anderlecht. Barely eighteen when he arrived, the boy-mountain spent most of last season on the bench and hated it. Despite impressing on the Blues' pre-season US tour, Lukaku found himself “gaining first-team experience” at West Brom this year and the Blues look like they may regret his temporary departure. His spell in the Midlands has so far been telling.

The Blues pulled out a 1-0 win against an uncompromising Stoke City at home on Saturday where none of their myriad new tricksy attacking types were able to really trouble the brutally efficient Stoke defense. While this new look can produce some wonderful football, the Blues appear to be missing a second look.

If those short-ish types aren't firing in the goals then the club – like the team they've attempted to emulate, Barcelona – seems to lack offensive versatility. Barca had to pay heavily to get Zlatan Ibrahimovic, as Chelsea did for the talented Lukaku; it costs money for big, strong and skilled. Perhaps with their dearth of options, it's time to explore what Lukaku can create for the Stamford Bridge unit.

Arsenal are looking good

Despite needing a late goal from Laurent Koscielny to snatch a draw, the Gunners played impressively at the Etihad Stadium. Champions Manchester City were penned back time and again by a quality combination of youth and experience; indeed, they may not have scored themselves if not for a mistake by third-string goalkeeper Vito Mannone.

Lukas Podolski, while not scoring bagfuls, has been impressive while Gervinho, not new signing Olivier Giroud, may eventually be the cetnre-forward to replace Robin van Persie.

Key to this solid start has been the central defensive partnership of Per Mertesacker and Koscielny. Only weeks ago we were suggesting Mertesacker's greatest contribution may come as stability from the bench, but he's been the Premiership's outstanding centre-back throughout the first four games and the club hardly missed resident Belgian Thomas Vermaelen.

Aston Villa – relegation fodder?

Maybe Paul Lambert began drinking his own Kool-Aid, but the world's most boring man may have bitten off more than he could chew in Birmingham. Even though last weekend provided some encouraging signs, Aston Villa struggled mightily in their 4-1 defeat to the defensively-inept Southampton. This year, Lambert just doesn't have the talent to work with in order to avoid a relegation battle.

This season's reinforcements have mostly come from lower divisions, like Matthew Lowton who only months ago was playing in League One. Although they may end up becoming quality players, these lower-tier recruits have acclimatise to the Big Show. After shedding most of the high-earners from their wage bill, Villa appear shorn of quality all over the park – comparing their squad from now to five years ago is simply amazing.

Unless you're Roberto Martinez, you can't sell your best players each year and expect to maintain your Premiership status. Hang on – now their constant inquiries as to his availability suddenly makes more sense.

Financial Fair Play: why it had to happen

No-one said that Financial Fair Play (FFP) was perfect. Even Michel Platini, the UEFA President behind the long-touted new standards, accepts his brainchild has some serious flaws. But in these days of the paradoxical austerity boom, European football clubs are going to have to take responsibility for their collective bottom lines.  FFP had to happen.

A slight shift towards prudence by some clubs – for example Newcastle United or AC Milan – has been balanced by remarkable spending by others. Nothing prompts wasteful extravagance like owning a football club. According to UEFA, almost seventy percent of all European top-flight clubs are losing money. Platini's regulations resolve to save clubs from themselves.

At its simplest, FFP penalises clubs who spend more than they earn. Opponents to the plan suggest this will keep the big clubs powerful and the small ones insignificant; they may have a point. However, it will also minimise the wealthy benefactor model made so famous by Chelsea, Manchester City and now Paris Saint-Germain.

Clubs are already beginning to implement the necessary changes. Whether UEFA enforces their laws is still to be seen.

While even Platini should accept the FFP legislation is imperfect, the overall ramifications of the legistlation should somewhat control spiralling wage-bills. The percentage of overall revenue spent on player wages by top-tier European clubs is simply bad business practice.

Within the past two years, American sport has seen lockouts in the NFL and NBA. A similar impasse has been reached between NHL owners and players. In all three cases, the warring parties struggle(d) to agree on a collective bargaining agreement (CBA) which splits revenue fairly between players and owners.

The graphic below charts the revenue split between players and owners in each of the four major US sports and compares it to top-flight European football clubs. The contrast is stark. Baseballers receive about 57% of their pie – as do hockey players under the current CBA – while NFL and NBA players' shares decreased to around 50% with their last CBA. (Given the habit owners have of “winning” these negotiations, the figures below come from the owners' last offer rather than the current iteration of the CBA which will certainly change).

Sources: The National Football Post, New book dives into business of baseball, Breaking down changes in new CBA, Twitter and the Belfast Telegraph.

And this chart doesn't even take into account transfer fees that are paid on top of wages! Even accounting for cross-continental differences, the average 13-20% extra that top division European footballers earn makes them the obvious outlier. What makes this startling is that the player/owner revenue sharing scheme now in operation in Europe isn't codified but voluntary – owners don't pay this lofty percentage out of legal compulsion.

No matter how different the sports, American owners like the Glazers, Stan Kroenke and Fenway Sports Group operate teams on both sides of the Atlantic. This means that there is a basis for comparison, if not for drawing fully-fleshed-out conclusions.  It's obvious that running a business and not accumulating debt - let alone making a profit - when you pay 70% of your income to employees is hard to do.

Because of the continental ramifications of employing a salary cap, an system index-linked to revenue was the most feasible way that UEFA could harness undisciplined spending.  FFP is not perfect, has loopholes aplenty and it won't necessarily address the lack of competitive balance across Europe's top four leagues. Hopefully, these refinements will come.

Manchester City's identity crisis

Manchester City's two Premier League games this season have been ... workmanlike.

The new signings ... underwhelming.

The manager ... apparently unsettled.

In spite of this, Manchester City remain the smart choice for this year's Premiership title. Even after managing a victory and a draw after falling behind against promoted Southampton and an inspired Liverpool, City have yet to inspire. In order for them to do so, the scattered approach that's characterised their August needs to disappear before it becomes a problem.

City has looked unstable this term; their centre of defence still hasn't convinced after shopping four goals in two matches and their experimental 3-5-2 formation hasn't been the versatile attacking springboard that manager Roberto Mancini hoped it might. Rumblings continue to emanate from Etihad Stadium that Mancini wants new – pricey – signings opposed somewhat by a boardroom that has adopted a confusing fiscal conservatism.

The club is travelling well, but no doubt things could be more smooth. The club proved last year it has the talent and application to overcome even the most troubled times, however it's imperative the club address this unease before it becomes more problematic.

The present Manchester City team seems from the outside to be struggling with its sense of identity. This is natural, considering so much has changed within the team over the past half-decade – only Joe Hart, Micah Richards and Pablo Zabaleta (just) pre-date the Sheikh Mansour regime. Given the number of personnel and tactical changes the squad has undergone, it's not surprising they might question how they play their best football.

Since August 2008, the club's been first a rest-stop for second-tier superstars like Emmanuel Adebayor, Roque Santa Cruz and Craig Bellamy. Once Mancini arrived, the club then became an indomitable defensive team who burnt opponents with terrier-like forwards like Carlos Tevez. Last season, City started as barnstormers, reverted to defensive type in midseason and finished the year in true come-from-behind style. Added pressure from being league champions – and popularly perceived as being a billionaire's plaything – forces two more elements to this identity crisis.

But which of these – if any – are Manchester City in 2012-13? Which personality suits them best?

A sense of identity always helps a team's performance. This is because it offers certainty to players, removing doubt as to how they play. Underdog. The Bad Boys. Pass and Press. Buying club. Selling club. These are all merely labels, but what labels provide is a sense of certainty and identity. Lacking that assurance in tactics, formations or individual role promotes player confusion and hesitation, while instinct is minimised and key decisions are overthought.

If existential questions on an individual level are vexing, they can become destructive when there's another 30+ elements in the equation. City are hardly the only club in such flux. The same could be said of many clubs that undergo significant change – Spurs, Arsenal, United and Aston Villa. However given the moderate quality of City's opposition (no matter how well Liverpool played) and their gift equaliser from Martin Skrtl, City's lack of cohesion has been quite pronounced.

It seems the lack of a defining identity in the Manchester City squad of August 2012 has manifested as caution. Do the players and managers see themselves as defense-first, offense-first or a football chameleon able to match any team at their gameplan? Defining identity and subsequently adopting an attendant culture is the foremost responsibility of any coach. This means the task is Mancini's alone, a task undermined or distracted by constant public calls for reinforcements.

The season is still young. But it behoves Roberto Mancini to create an identity for his team before it begins to overshadow their wonderful 2012.

Football's most operatic week

It may be cliché, but what a week we've seen in football. There have been more twists, subplots and stories than your average season of The Wire, passing everywhere from England, through France and Italy to the Iberian peninsula. To wit, we catalogue (briefly) the past ten days in football:

1. Chelsea defeated Barcelona (away from home, with the winning goal from a most unlikely source) in the Champions League semi-final, attaining some semblance of closure after four years railing against any and all authority figures. We bear audio witness to someone giving Gary Neville and unexpected and immensely painful wedgie.

 2. Speculation immediately mounts about the future of Barcelona manager Pep Guardiola, who announces three days later that he is taking a sabbatical.

3. Meanwhile, archetypal black-hat villain Jose Mourinho and his Real Madrid team are too knocked out of the Champions League at the semi-final stage, failing to overcome the Teutonic genetic predisposition of excelling in penalty shoot-outs.

4. Real then proceeded to claim the Spanish league title, their first in four years; Barcelona take scant solace in Lionel Messi breaking Gerd Muller's 39-year old European goalscoring record.

5. All the while, we witnessed attempts by simply everyone to leverage the tension inherently built up tension by Monday's City/United match, the most keenly anticipated derby since ... well ... the last one, billed hyperbolically as the “Match of the Century”.

6. On Saturday, Southampton achieved their second successive promotion and re-enter the Premiership after years in the wilderness (or at least, the third tier of English football). The rebirth of this iconic club came in the wake of administration, rumours of liquidation and away matches at Hereford.

7. Sunday left us appreciating Fabrice Muamba, who returned to a football match for the first time since his kayfabe and therefore extremely frightening cardiac arrest against Tottenham six weeks ago. Unfortunately, his Bolton Wanderers teammates couldn't rustle up a win for him – the Trotters were stuffed 4-1 by those same Spurs.

8. At the same time – still anticipating, with an ever-increasing sense of dread, the “Match of the Century” – Roy Hodgson ran-in to a one-sided contest to decide the manager of the English football team. The English FA decided that Harry Redknapp wasn't worth the cost, heartache and repeated demands to sign Lukas Podolski from ... err ... Germany. English tabloids reacted in their usual classy manner.

9. A minnow, third division club FC Quevilly, took on Lyon in the French Cup final. The result, unlike the contestants or scoreline, was predictable.

10. The same day (what a day!) saw a ghost whistle disrupt play in the decisive clash in Serie A between Champions League chasing Lazio and Udinese, allowing Udinese to score a crucial goal.

11. The much-vaunted Manchester Derby ended as many predicted – with a City victory – and once and for all reminding those in the halls of power (ie. Sky Sports, Fox Soccer Channel, ESPN etc) that the prophetic moniker “Game of the Century”, by the properties of mutual exclusion, guarantees a match which doesn't at all live up to the hype.

12. Two days after the derby-to-end-all-derbies (we can only hope), one of the odder occurrences in European football occurred when Fiorentina boss Delio Rossi attacked one of his own players, Adem Ljajic. He was, of course, promptly fired.

13. Finally, to conclude a tiring week, Newcastle United striker Papiss Demba Cisse scored two astounding goals as the Magpies maintained its challenge for Champions League football next season.

There's a defining but unspoken principal in almost all entertainment that we appreciate the consciously unresolved, but enjoy it more when resolution comes. Audiences like to be left hanging – at least for a while. This principal underlies stand-up comedy, TV story arcs and jazz improvisation among many others. The past ten days have provided almost all the twists football can offer; we've also seen some climactic moments.

It would tempt fate to suggest the season has no more surprises, but after a week like this it's hard to see from where they will come.

The Balotelli Curve

Click to enlarge

 When he thrust his spikes into Alex Song's knee, popular opinion finally and perhaps definitively swung against Mario Balotelli. The Italy forward leapt into numerous dangerous challenges during Manchester City's weekend loss to Arsenal and finished the match copping a pointless red card in the tie's waning minutes. He arrived in the sheds to a power of criticism flung from all corners of the football world.

Indeed, the collective noun for public comment on the excesses of football should now be known as a Balotelli of criticism. Furthermore, the amount of public and unsolicited comments could then be measured on the “Balotelli scale”, where Luka Modric asking not to play earns one Mario; Tevez leaving the bench merits four. When someone – probably Tevez – eventually tops the scale's theoretical maximum of five Marios, the internet implodes as if heaved past the event horizon.

The latest Balotelli farce probably earns the player a two-Mario rating. Sure, it was only a compound of (at best) dangerously laissez-faire and (at worst) malicious challenges and an unnecessary/overdue red card; however, it has generated scorn apparently from the ether. While this last escapade has been a long time coming, it becomes evermore apparent that Mario Balotelli has the godlike ability to create from nothing.

The EPL run home "analyzed"

As the Premier League season rampages towards the Manchester derby which will (probably) decide the ultimate route and destination of this season's victory parade, we've got enough data from the season in progress to suggest how results for the rest of the season plays out.  The season is now thirty games old for each club, with the last eight enough to determine who raises the cup this season, which of the upstart clubs finishes with a well-earned chance at European football and which clubs will be facing derbies next season with the likes of MK Dons, Watford or Burnley.

So far, the information that may be the most telling as we enter the season's waning weeks is how each of the teams in the battle to play Champions League football next season got to be where they now are.
The table below includes the five teams currently slated to play continental football next season. It indicates what percentage of available points they have secured against opposition in different parts of the table. For example, Manchester City have played four times against teams currently in the relegation zone and won each encounter. Therefore, they have attained 100% of the points available from those four matches. Chelsea, however, have managed only two wins and a draw from their four encounters with current drop-zone residents – a more sickly 58%.

	Available points achieved by club (%):
Versus teams:	Man United	Man City	Arsenal	Tottenham	Chelsea
In relegation zone	100	100	78	87	58
Are relegation threatened	86	100	52	90	76
In table's bottom half	90	88	64	83	56
“Mid-table”	79	65	71	69	52
In table's top half	69	67	56	42	49
League Top 5	76	83	33	21	29
Total	81	78	64	61	56

For the purposes of this illustration, “Mid-table” includes all teams not currently occupying European slots or in danger of relegation. This means all teams from position 6 – 15 are included, no matter how turgid their play or how daunting their final fixtures appear).  Data correct to Thursday, March 29th.

We can automatically surmise that this season's Premier League has more of a Spanish – or Scottish – appearance to it. The lack competition at the top is galling - and even worse in graphical form (click to enlarge the graph).  While it's expected that clubs lose more points against higher opposition, for a league which champions itself as the most even in Europe, the strength of the Manchester clubs is starkly apparent.

Click to enlarge.

This term displays a major duopoly as the twinn'd Manchester clubs have been markedly more adept at taking points from other so-called “elite” opponents.

 This bodes well for City, in particular, as their April 30^th derby approaches – soon after a trip to Arsenal. Given their record, prior games against mid-table Norwich City and West Brom could provide more hurdlese than their matches against the Red Devils and Gunners. 


Once we depart Manchester, the numbers are just as revealing. Third and fourth positions are the subject of another local rivalry, as despite an ugly start to the season, Arsenal have earned their current tabular position, while Spurs appear a team of bullies. Redknapp's men have extracted only a win and two draws from eight encounters with Top 5 opponents (five points from twenty-four). For Chelsea, these numbers show definitively the poor fit between players and former manager Andre Villas-Boas: last year, Carlo Ancelotti was canned after accumulating more points (by percentage) against every category of opposition.

Craig Bellamy - the signing of the season?

Everyone loves something for nothing.  In the high-priced world of professional football, the same is even more true.  When in August last year Kenny Dalglish asked Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini nicely for Craig Bellamy, the Liverpool icon became the proud “owner” of one very cheap, slightly-used Welsh forward.

That very cheap, slightly used Welsh forward – who spent last season on loan at his hometown club, Cardiff City – has since been one of the Reds’ best players and without question has provided the best value for money of all Liverpool’s 2011 acquisitions.  Considering the plentiful concerns about Bellamy’s physical condition –his knees are reportedly bad enough to prevent him from playing three matches in a row – the contract he signed on Merseyside is for a quite reasonable two years.

In fact, despite only a month ago crowning Sergio Aguero the Premiership’s best signing of 2011, it’s time to reconsider that honour in Bellamy’s favour.  With the difference in transfer fees paid and the disparity in the pair’s respective wages, the title is now the fiery Welshman’s to lose.

As an aside, Bellamy’s success at Liverpool, in concert with defender Nedum “You were such a nice man” Onuoha’s £2.5 million sale to QPR, makes one ponder the validity of City asking so much for sensation-magnet Carlos Tevez.  City have insisted on receiving close to market value for their pugnacious former front man (as well as for other superfluous players Adebayor and Santa Cruz) when they have essentially discarded quality EPL players like Bellamy, Onuoha and Shaun Wright-Phillips for a handful of coppers.

As Tevez has reportedly been fined over £9 million for his repeated indiscretions, his probable profit from any deal (with a signing bonus possibly a percentage of any transfer fee paid) is something City should be hoping to avoid.  This, and possible (though this sounds far-fetched) savings on his wages, mean any substantive monies they receive from his sale should be seen as gravy. 

Given past experience, he is likely to haunt them no matter what fee they may accept for his signature – so the Citizens may as well just move him on and save themselves some more Tevez-induced fiscal heartburn.

The times, they are a-changing

Yesterday, I found one of my all-time favourite lucky finds – an old World Football magazine which proudly boasted to contain full 2006-07 squad lists for every major European league.

As I sat back to enjoy again articles like “Gamble on Govou gets France going” and “Sticky start [at Poland] for Beenhakker”, it struck me at the amount the shape of sport has changed in as little as five years.  That year was a particularly interesting one: Roy Keane earned a reputation as the games’ best young manager as he led Sunderland from bottom of the Championship to runaway winners at his first attempt; Red Star Belgrade sold star striker Nikola Zigic to Racing Santander (who has later moved to Valencia and Birmingham City); while the “Five Young Stars of the Copa Libertadores” were Rafael Sobis, Fabiano Eller, Wason Renteria, Leandro Somoza and Cristian Riveros.

The most striking example of how much the game has progressed is in the amount of player turnover at English clubs.  The table below details the 2006-07 English Premier League squads and how much they have changed over the subsequent five years.

Club	06-07 squad	Players in 11-12 squad	06-07 Players on loan	Total players still in EPL	Relegations
Arsenal	32	7	2	15
Aston Villa	24	2	0	10
Blackburn	29	3	0	6
Bolton	23	3	0	8
Charlton	31	0	0	2	**
Chelsea	20	9	0	13
Everton	26	7	1	13
Fulham	27	0	0	3
Liverpool	27	7	1	14
Man City	26	3	0	8
Man Utd	22	9	0	16
M’Brough	29	4	0	9	*
Newcastle	21	3	0	10	*
Portsmouth	26	2	0	3	*
Reading	26	1	0	5	*
Sheff Utd	32	3	0	2	**
Tottenham	27	6	1	12
Watford	30	3	0	4	*
West Ham	28	3	0	10	*
Wigan	25	2	0	8

Keep in mind this was before set 25-man squads, Financial Fair Play and numerous debt crises and takeovers.  The squads are as listed in “World Soccer” Magazine, October 2006 edition and can include promising youth team players.

With the number of players still in the EPL after five years, it’s not surprising that Watford, Sheffield United and Charlton were relegated that season.