Graphic: EPL goalscoring efficiency 2012-13

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Graphic: Four-year EPL efficiency

This efficiency study tracks how effective each English Premier League team has been since 2009-10.  It does so by mapping a team's offensive efficiency (measured in shots per goal scored) against their defensive resilience (measured in shots faced per goal conceded).  Data is updated to 22nd February 2012 and so includes Liverpool's recent 5-0 win over Swansea City.

The axes cross at "league average" positions, meaning the graph is divided into relatively even quadrants.

As one would expect, twinn'd Manchester clubs appear to have the greatest cumulative combination of offense and defence, Chelsea's numbers lessened by a misfiring striker and ill-fated flirtations with seductive foreign managers (their 2010 season was probably the most efficient EPL club season in recent history).

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(c) Balanced Sports

As always, thanks to Ben Mayhew at Experimental 3-6-1 for the idea, sourced over a year ago.

Graphic: The most efficient teams in Europe

Following on from our half-season efficiency studies, the following chart demonstrates the each team's offensive/defensive efficiency in a single measure and compares it across all four European leagues.

Each team's defensive stolidity is calculated by finding out how many shots they faced per goal, while offensive precision is calculated by the same means (how many shots per goal).  There's little surprise that Juventus and Borussia Moenchengladbach had the best defenses, nor that Schalke, Real Madrid and Barcelona supplied the most clinical offenses.  Stay tuned for a year-to-year EPL comparison.

As usual, we suggest clicking on the chart to enlarge it.

Mythbusting the Australian First Class season

Bowlers win matches
It's been often said that batsmen put you into a position to win matches, but bowlers do the actual winning. After combing through the stats from this year's Australian First Class season, we can confirm (for 2011-12 at least) that this is, in fact, true. It's also easily proven.

A quick glance at the following three charts best displays how crucial both the major aspects of bowling are (ie. Taking wickets and restricting runs). Each of Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania finished the Sheffield Shield season with 36 points; Western Australia finished fourth with 34. When comparing bowling attacks, the four teams were difficult to separate, particularly the leading three states. Only bowlers who delivered more than 30 overs for the season were considered.

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When batsmanship is added, you can see that Victoria and New South Wales trended above average, while eventual champions Queensland finished significantly below average. New South Wales – with their core of batting including Usman Khawaja, Phil Hughes, Phil Jacques, Peter Nevill and Simon Katich et al – suggest that batting doesn't have the same impact on acquiring points. Of course, this is a tenuous assumption based upon one point on one chart, but worthy of further consideration.

Logically, in a four-day competition where wickets are at a premium, it makes sense that bowlers command the amount of points available – if you can't dismiss a team twice, you can't acquire a full six points.

Short pitch: Sheffield Shield Efficiency

(c) Balanced Sports, click to enlarge

The chart above maps the combined batting/bowling prowess of each of last year's Sheffield Shield teams.  It forms a very rough guide to each state's efficiency by mapping the cumulative batting and bowling averages of each state's specialists against each other.  Please note the curious wording (batsmen/bowlers) - only recognised  batsmen and allrounders were used to calculate each state's cumulative batting average, while the same is true of bowling averages.  This means that the universal averages (used as axes to divide the graph into quadrants) are somewhat different.

With bowling average forming the X axis and a low number desired and a high Y value indicating a more efficient batting lineup, we can surmise that the top left-hand quadrant denotes the most efficient teams.  The opposite is therefore true of the inferior right quadrant.

Finally, the chart indicates that no matter how good a batting attack may be, it's much more beneficial to have butt-kicking bowlers - the most efficient bowlers came from Queensland, who won the Shield.  Tasmania had the next most efficient bowling outfit, who ended the season as runners-up.  Victoria managed third place.

Graphic: England's most efficient goalscorers

The chart below displays the efficiency of forwards and midfielders playing in the English Premier League.  It plots each player's shooting accuracy, in goals per shot, against their scoring rate in goals per game.  The further to the top right corner of the graph the player is, the more efficient they are.  All players in the EPL who have scored five or more goals are considered.

It is obviously swayed towards recent players or those who don't play that often.  This makes Eastern bloc duo Dimitar Berbatov and Pavel Pogrebnyak the most efficient goalscorers in the league to this point.

Click to enlarge the graph.

Redknapp's logical successor

Let's just assume, despite apparent misgivings, that Harry Redknapp will manage England at this year's European Championships. The common-sense logic is that England will likely qualify for the second round and then be eliminated. Such things were written in stone, long ago.

Were he to go, however, who would replace him at Spurs? Noises have been made about summoning Jose Mourinho from Real Madrid to helm next season's increasingly-improbable Champions' League push, while other names thrown forth into the vacuum include Fabio Capello, Rafael Benitez and David Moyes.

Interestingly, the Spurs personnel actually quite suit a manager like Andre Villas-Boas, but it's unlikely AVB would get such a high-profile position immediately after his Chelsea flame-out. This should elicit nervous Liverpudlian glances towards Fleet Street's rumour-mongers.

If Jose's not coming – and he's not, there should be little doubt that David Moyes is the best fit for the Spurs job.

Harking back a moment to Villas-Boas, there are myriad reasons for his dismissal but the greatest was an initial refusal to adapt his tactics to his players. This doesn't apply for Moyes, who for the vast majority of his decade-long tenure at Goodison Park has employed with success either a flat 4-4-2 or a 4-4-1-1. He would have to make little or no adaptation, but simply deploy a superior playing group. To prove his efficacy, he need look no further than a player that Spurs now own – South African Steven Pienaar.

His maintenance of Everton as one of the league's more efficient defensive teams speaks volumes, as does his ability to bring together a cohesive dressing room and his noted ability to work well on a budget. Spurs could certainly benefit from all four of these selling points – in fact, combining Moyes' defensive schemes with the offensive talent on hand at White Hart Lane is an exciting prospect.

This remains pure speculation, and it's no sure thing that Moyes would agree to a contract at Spurs. However, it remains the most tantalising option should Redknapp be seconded into national service.

Comparing EPL efficiency across years

Last week I posted a graph which showed the Offensive and Defensive efficiency of teams across Europe's four major leagues.  The chart was measured teams' conversion rates against the number of shots they faced before conceding a goal.  As with all statistics, this is informative in isolation, but doesn't provide a full understanding of the situation without further context - as in,without further information we can't say if Liverpool's offensive profligacy is a one-season trend due solely to Luis Suarez's left boot, Andy Carroll's relative lack of presence or even if Steven Gerrard's long-term absence contributes to such a statistical  malaise.

In order to answer these questions, we need to compare this year to others.

The following charts show first the change in Offensive/Defensive efficiency for each team in the 2010-11 and 2011-12 Premier League, and secondly the change over the last three years (when shots/shots faced statistics became more readily available).  In the first graph, lines chart the year-on-year change for each club.  Such lines aren't present in the second chart as they would make the chart practically unintelligible.  Enjoy!

I  highly recommend clicking each image to enlarge it.

The most efficient teams in Europe

The following chart was inspired by a similar chart on the blog Experimental 3-6-1.  It displays the ratio between the average number of shots a team needs to score a goal, versus the average number shots they face before they concede.  Click the image to zoom in.

From the graph, we can surmise that Borussia Moenchengladbach has by far the sturdiest defence, while Freiburg offer about  as much resistance as wet paper.  The most inefficient teams in front of goal, however are Cesena and Kaiserslauten.  It's probably no surprise that both are in severe danger of relegation.