European Goalkeeper Stats 2010-11

The following is a list of (barely) advanced Goalkeeper stats for the four major European leagues for season 2010-11.

European Goalkeeper stats 2011-12

This post details some (barely) advanced statistics for goalkeepers from the 2011-12 European football season.

European Goalkeeper Stats 2012-13

The following post is essentially a list of numbers, from which you can make what you will. It details each goalkeeper's individual performance over the course of the season - and, by extension, the performance of each club's defence over the season past.

Click past the byline to see the (rather lengthy) statistics.

Graphic: European football conversion rates

The following chart displays the efficiency of European football forwards my mapping their conversion rate (goals per shot) against the number of shots per game.

The higher on the Y-axis the forward, the more efficient the player in front of goal; the farther to the right on the X-axis, the more shots they generate.  Only players with four goals or more this season were considered (ie. forwards with a goals/game ratio higher than .364).  Players are colour-coded according to the league in which they play: red for La Liga, orange for the English Premier League, green for the Bundesliga and azure for Serie A.

Finally, a statistical category in which Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo don't lead the pack!

Click to enlarge.

AC Milan: Ch-ch-ch-changes

Silvio Berlusconi doesn't do anything by half measures.

Two seasons ago, his club was perhaps the oldest elite team in Europe.  Although football's Peter Pan, Paolo Maldini, had retired, the Rossoneri claimed the Serie A title featuring almost an entire XI of thirtysomethings (Alessandro Nesta,  Mark van Bommel, Massimo Ambrosini, Clarence Seedorf, Gianluca Zambrotta, Pippo Inzaghi, Massimo Oddo, Christian Abbiati, Andrea Pirlo and Gennaro Gattuso).  These decelerating stalwarts were supplemented by some elite "younger" talent like Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Robinho and Alexandre Pato.

2012 sees AC Milan looking forward to their next challenge: building a club around home-developed talent rather than big-money signings.

Strictures imposed by UEFA's Financial Fair Play, coupled with a perilous Italian economy means Berlusconi and co decided the club was best positioned to stare down their future without their gamut of fourth-decade, eight-figure signings.  Over the past two years, the club has sold or released a dozen of their most experienced players (Ibrahimovic, Thiago Silva, Nesta, Seedorf, Zambrotta, Inzaghi, Gattuso, Taye Taiwo, van Bommel, Oddo, Legrottaglie and Pirlo), players with a combined age of 402.  Furthermore, the club finally gave up on Ronaldinho, a player who aged much sooner than anyone would have thought possible.

Replacements have been younger and relatively inexpensive: Philippe Mexes, Kevin-Prince Boateng and perhaps  most excitingly of all, Stephan El Shaarawy.  Although Berlusconi and manager Massimiliano Allegri are likely to enter the transfer market, perhaps for red-half alumnus Kaka or Montpellier central defender Mpou Yang-Mbiwa, global buzzwords "austerity measures" seem to apply at Giuseppe Meazza.

In fact, to compare the anticipated AC Milan starting lineup for their first Serie A match to that of two years ago is almost - but not quite - pointless.  The fourteen  players used that day had an average age of 29.6 - incidentally, the exact same average age that of those players that started Milan's first Serie A match last year.  Only five of those players from two years ago remain at the club.  Should no further purchases be made this transfer window the average AC Milan player would be 26.2, a figure increased by goalkeeper Abbiati who at 35 years old is half a decade older than the next oldest starter.

The turnaround was needed and anticipated.  Even though it was expected, it was still brutal.  The new club, while boasting abundant pace and stamina, will rely heavily upon El Shaarawy, Robinho and Boateng for flair and goals.  Despite not appearing to have the same class as even last year, Berlusconi may have chosen the perfect time to rebuild from within: arch-rivals Inter Milan completed an awful season last term, while the whole of Serie A - particularly champions Juventus - are sweating the results of further match-fixing investigations

Only once these allegations play out will we be able to accurately forecast the Italian league.  Count on one thing though: a changed AC Milan means a changed league.

Graphic: The most efficient teams in Europe

Following on from our half-season efficiency studies, the following chart demonstrates the each team's offensive/defensive efficiency in a single measure and compares it across all four European leagues.

Each team's defensive stolidity is calculated by finding out how many shots they faced per goal, while offensive precision is calculated by the same means (how many shots per goal).  There's little surprise that Juventus and Borussia Moenchengladbach had the best defenses, nor that Schalke, Real Madrid and Barcelona supplied the most clinical offenses.  Stay tuned for a year-to-year EPL comparison.

As usual, we suggest clicking on the chart to enlarge it.

Don't judge a league by its elite

As football has become more and more corporate, the existence of elite cliques of teams in almost all the major four Europeans leagues have become an accepted part of the European football culture. While from time to time over the last fifteen years these subsections have been occasionally disrupted, it's not worth arguing against the balance of European football power being held by a maximum of four clubs in four leagues.

The same clubs almost always take part in the Champions League. While class is routinely (and tediously) said to be permanent, it would be more true to suggest that the established plutocracy is everlasting.

Considering well-earned prize money, league TV rights deals (especially pertinent in Spain), Champions' League income and large stadia, the wealthy club shave such a fiscal leg-up, that those clubs once (still?) associated with a European football superleague are essentially playing in a different league to their club opponents. This leads, especially in England, to clubs flush with imported players: in each of their last Champions' League matches, EPL clubs boasted a total of 12 players who had played with their club's juniors. Only four of those players – Ryan Giggs, Kieran Gibbs, Wojcieh Szczesny and Joe Hart – were starters.

Based on the past few seasons, the best clubs in the world have been Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and, if you tilt your head to the left and squint reeeal hard, Manchester United. However, these clubs seem to have birthrights allowing them access to European football and the money to buy players that most/all other teams in their respective countries envision only in their stickiest dreams. Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern and United now don't accurately represent their respective leagues but sit somewhere in the third standard deviation, part of a superelite that may as well play in a bloody superleague. (An idea that's never totally put to bed, by the way.)

Even though individual rights deals, league finances and priority on junior development makes this an exercise in apples and oranges, the strength of each league's mid-table sides must be evaluated to provide an accurate comparison. Perhaps now it's time to evaluate a league primarily by those squads in the middle of the pack, with both their achievement at home and abroad. Given the regular passage of players from mid-table teams to the elite, this also seems to best describe the league as a whole, rather than just paint a portrait of those paragon clubs.

Talk to a evangelising school principal and he will try to convince you that the best student in the class represents the quality of his teachers, amenities, tributary schools and leadership. However, this is often proved incorrect by assessing those students in the meaty part of the bell-curve. Money unlocks many doors, both in the education system and the football world. How students, teachers, clubs and players perform without that cash most accurately reveals the truth.

The most efficient teams in Europe

The following chart was inspired by a similar chart on the blog Experimental 3-6-1.  It displays the ratio between the average number of shots a team needs to score a goal, versus the average number shots they face before they concede.  Click the image to zoom in.

From the graph, we can surmise that Borussia Moenchengladbach has by far the sturdiest defence, while Freiburg offer about  as much resistance as wet paper.  The most inefficient teams in front of goal, however are Cesena and Kaiserslauten.  It's probably no surprise that both are in severe danger of relegation.

Scoring Stats - Messi and Ronaldo lead all (again!)

Any statistical analysis of a sporting event can go down one of two main routes. Firstly, they could be raw data, usually expressed as totals or percentages. In football, examples include the number of total corners a team concedes (or forces), the number of minutes a player is on the park for over the course of a season or even how many points a team accumulates. The second format usually depends on rate - goals per possession, corners per dribble, dribbles per game or even passing completion percentage.

Both have their uses, but as football (and other sports) become more and more subject to the moneyball theory and so-called "advanced metrics", rate has taken precedence over simple raw data. For instance in football, teams play at different tempos - one team may slowly build from the back while other teams favour quick incisive bursts. A team with a "lump it up" and lose possession philosophy is likely to create less chances by dint of not having the ball as often. It's fortunate we have two very visible clubs with vastly different methods of operating to easily point to: Barcelona dominate possession no matter who they play, while almost any team coached by Sam Allardyce feels more content without the ball than with it.

A Scoring Stat is defined as any goal or assist a player is credited with, therefore a player's total thereof is the number of goals and assists he accumulates over a season. So far we've examined trends throughout Europe, which players were individual total leaders and finally how much the dependence on a particular player varied across the four professional divisions in one country. Now it is time to evaluate which players provided the greatest lift, per game, to their individual teams.

Unfortunately, access to minutes-played data was very difficult to come by, so this is evaluated according to the number of games in which a player participated. In this analysis, only Team Leaders are evaluated (players who led their club in total Scoring Stats) - a follow-up analysis will include all of Europe.

Europe's Top Team leaders by match

League	Team	Player	Games	%	Stats per Game
La Liga	Barcelona	Lionel Messi	33	0.516	1.485
La Liga	Real Madrid	Cristiano Ronaldo	35	0.490	1.429
EPL	Arsenal	Robin Van Persie	25	0.347	1.000
Serie A	Udinese	Antonio Di Natale	36	0.538	0.972
Bundesliga	Bayern Munich	Mario Gomez	32	0.370	0.938
Serie A	Napoli	Edinson Cavani	35	0.542	0.914
Serie A	AC Milan	Zlatan Ibrahimovic	29	0.385	0.862
Serie A	Inter Milan	Samuel Eto'o	35	0.435	0.857
EPL	Man City	Carlos Tevez	31	0.433	0.839
EPL	Tottenham	Rafael Van der Vaart	28	0.382	0.750
EPL	Man United	Dimitar Berbatov	32	0.308	0.750
Bundesliga	Koln	Milivoje Novakovic	28	0.426	0.714
Bundesliga	Hannover	Didier Ya Konan	28	0.408	0.714
La Liga	Espanyol	Pablo Osvaldo	24	0.370	0.708
Bundesliga	Freiburg	Papiss Demba Cisse	32	0.537	0.688
Average	Levante's	Felipe Caciedo			0.559

Complete table can be found at Balanced Sports Scoring Stats page.

Once again, this only goes to highlight how far clear of the pack Leo Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo remain as footballers. While the average Team Leader contributes about what teams look for from an effective, workmanlike striker (the adage goes "a goal every second game" and remember there are probably some relatively below-average Strikers leading their teams here), they nearly triple that average. After them, the next best - the perpetually injured Van Persie - only managed to average one goal or assist per match.

These totals, however, could be swayed for total numbers. Both Real and Barca scored a boatload of goals during season 2010-11. To evaluate the top fifteen clubs by goals-per-game across Europe is telling:

This table - comprised nearly completely of the usual suspects - leads us to suggest that while Messi and Ronaldo's influence is remarkbable, it is in part due to the increased number of goals their clubs score. This of course gives rise to the perpetual (and now, frankly, boring) Messi versus Ronaldo debate and prompts us to pose the "chicken or the egg" question once more - do they top the individual list because of their team rate, or do their teams top the goals-per-game table because of their phenomenal skill? Unfortunately the answer isn't easily forthcoming but suffice to suggest that both generate remarkable amounts of opportunities for their teams, and benefit from their teammates doing the same.

Finally, a note about VfB Stuttgart. The Reds finished a disappointing twelfth in the Bundesliga this year, yet pounded in 1.76 goals per game without having a player in the top 45 team leaders by rate. Their most productive forward by totals as Martin Harnik with 15 total scoring stats, who contributed to a quarter of their scores (averaging less than one scoring stat every two matches).

Stats for all players, teams and leagues can be found at Balanced Sports' Scoring Stats page.
Image courtesy: www.nevercaptainnickybutt.com

Goalkeeping Stats across Europe - an analysis

101 goalkeepers made over ten starts in Europe's four major leagues during season 2010-12. Another fifty-six made at least one start in either the English Premiership, La Liga, the Bundesliga or Serie A. So after thirty eight games (thirty-four in Germany), which goalkeeper is best?

Of course evaluating custodians purely by stats is a fraught and inaccurate business. Goalkeepers, by their demeanour and wits bring more to a team than simply stopping shots, as per NHL netminders. They also command and organise their defence as well as arrange their players in best positions to defend set pieces. Also, they are often not at fault for the goals conceded, being beaten by lackadaisical or poor defending.

That's not to say that quantification of a goalkeeper's performance is useless. For one thing, we can evaluate definitively the differences across leagues.

LEAGUE	Total Starts	Conceded	Saves	Saves/Start	Save %	GAA
Serie A	760	953	2560	3.36	0.729	1.25
La Liga	760	1042	2645	3.48	0.717	1.37
EPL	760	1057	2403	3.17	0.695	1.39
Bundesliga	612	890	1925	3.13	0.684	1.45

GAA = Goals Allowed Average. Note the term "Start" has been used rather than "Games". Due to the data available, we weren't able to evaluate when goalkeepers conceded after coming on as a substitute. This also means that all the goals scored in a league throughout the course of the season may not be included in this table.

Perhaps as a result of a slower game tempo, of a reliance on a star individual, miserly defence or even plain and simple goalkeeping ability, Serie A produced consistently the best goalkeeper metrics across the board. That is, Goalkeepers in Italy conceded less goals per game, had a higher save percentage and produced a high level of saves per start.

Italian football is notorious for it's slower pace - unless you're Napoli or Udinese this season - and infamous for low goalscoring. That isn't necessarily borne out here - while the GAA was lower than in the other three major leagues, the increased Save Percentage counteracts that. This could also be a tactical measure, where Italian defenders are more "pigeon-holed" as defensive stoppers, eschewing forward play in favour of stolid defence.

Most surprising was the relative decrease in saves across the water in England. The Premiership produced the second-lowest save percentage and the second-highest GAA. Again, tactical considerations could be keeping these averages low or simply that the offensive play is superior. This could both back up and dispel the popular preconception that the Premier League is the most exciting and balanced in Europe, so while it's interesting data it's hardly definitive. While this table takes into account goalkeeper performance, it is we have said, impossible to divorce that totally from a defence's (in)ability.

How would these numbers look then, if we removed the backups? Most clubs have one primary goalkeeper and at least one creditable custodian in reserve - take for example Italian Champions AC Milan who fielded Christian Abbiati thirty-five times during 2010-11 and Marco Amelia during the remaining three matches. The following table has removed all the players with less than ten league starts. The numbers don't change much at all:

LEAGUE	Total Starts	Conceded	Saves	Saves/Start	Save %	GAA
Serie A	732	912	2469	3.37	0.730	1.25
La Liga	698	938	2432	3.48	0.722	1.34
EPL	714	988	2283	3.20	0.698	1.38
Bundesliga	553	795	1758	3.18	0.689	1.44

The greatest difference between the two is a minor increase in German Saves per Start and Save Percentage, while Spanish Save Percentage increased mildly as well. The GAAs, though changed in all leagues except Serie A, were minor adjustments. While it was a nice thought that a league's overall goalkeeping quality could indicate how crucial defences were to the numbers, it is unproveable with the above results.

It's perhaps telling that the greatest difference in the table above comes from Germany & La Liga's goalkeeping starts: during the course of the Spanish season, forty-three players got a start between the sticks. Thirty-eight Goalkeepers got starts in the Bundesliga (forty-two, if adjusted for a twenty-team league), thirty-nine Italian league players and thirty-seven in the EPL. While the vast majority of each team's matches were played by the starting GK (over 90% in all leagues), Germany had the most trust in their backups.

This means that backup keepers, whether for reasons of injury, form or rotation claimed 9.93% of the available starts in Germany while in Italy, starters accounted for an enormous 96.3% of the available starts.

In part two, we'll go through Europe's best and brightest goalkeepers by save percentage, Goals Allowed average and by league. In the meantime, you can find all the raw data here at Balanced Sports' Goalkeeper Stats page.

Scoring Stats - European Goalscoring Trends

When we first examined the most important marksmen in the Big Four leagues, we looked at which players in Europe were the most crucial to their teams. This was done according to Scoring Stats, a measure of a player's combined Goals and Assists, measured as a percentage of their team's total league goals for the season. Then, Serie A stars Marco Di Vaio and Edinson Cavani topped the European Scoring Stats tables, each contributing to over 63% of their club's goals.

Clubs in Italy and Germany - as well as the big two Spanish teams, Real Madrid and Barcelona - were much more likely to focus their offense around one player, as of the top twenty players by Percentage contribution to their team's goals, eight came from Italy and seven from Germany. In early April in Serie A, an average of 38.5% of all a team's goals came from that one focal player; in the Bundesliga it dropped to 36.77%. The English Premier League was by far least reliant on star men, their average contribution by a team leader (32.4%) propped up by Carlos Tevez's remarkable 50% contribution to Manchester City's cause.

Obviously this measure is highly swung in favour of forwards. Although some midfielders - such as Hoffenheim's Gylfi Sigurdsson - or defenders like Leighton Baines led their club, often that was the result of their free-kick taking duties (Baines recording sixteen total Scoring Stats, eleven of which were assists, either from crosses or set pieces).

English Premier League: A balanced attack triumphs

At the end of the Season, numbers didn't change much:

LEAGUE	Average Goals Per Team		Average Goals per Game		Avg %
Timeframe	April	Season End	April	Season End	April	Season End
Premiership	42.6	53.15	1.38	1.4	32.41	31.89
La Liga	40.4	52.1	1.35	1.37	35.38	37.33
Serie A	36.05	47.75	1.16	1.26	38.58	35.92
Bundesliga	40.17	49.67	1.43	1.46	36.77	35.01

Where Avg % is the average contribution to a team's total goals by the player with the most total goals + assists. Please note the Bundesliga is an eighteen team league (34 games), not a twenty-team league.

While most clubs decreased their reliance on their star men - in general - over the last six weeks of the season, only La Liga increased. This is in part due to the number of injuries suffered - these figures are always likely to be high at the start of a season and lower towards the end as more players get on the scoresheet and others either fall out rotations or receive injuries. England's total decreased as Carlos Tevez who, with only six weeks remaining in the season, had scored or delivered the assist for half of the Citizens' goals. His importance to league numbers is exemplified with the English percentage dropping by half a percent - because he missed just a month.

Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo: A cut above

Once again, European football was dominated by Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. While Ronaldo managed to better his opponent's total, having fifty Scoring Stats in the league to Messi's forty-nine, his breakdown was typical of a centre-forward rather than the all-purpose forward into which he has morphed. He registered a 4:1 goals-to-assists ratio, while creative maestro Messi averaged slightly under three assists for every five goals. That he contributed 51.6% of Barca's stats is remarkable and due to their scoring 95 goals for the BBVA season; Ronaldo's Madrid scored 105 goals, meaning his percentage is slightly decreased (49.0%).

To remove those two (and replace them with "average" replacements) is telling:

LEAGUE	Average Goals Per Team		Average Goals per Game		Avg %
Timeframe	April	Season End	April	Season End	April	Season End
Premiership	42.6	53.15	1.38	1.4	32.41	31.89
La Liga	40.4	52.1	1.35	1.37	35.38	37.33
La Liga - 2	36.5	48.9	1.22	1.29	33.59	32.92
Serie A	36.05	47.75	1.16	1.26	38.58	35.92
Bundesliga	40.17	49.67	1.43	1.46	36.77	35.01

This can only be considered while keeping several factors in mind. Firstly, should Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi be injured, while the best players in the world, they would undoubtedly be replaced by someone above replacement level. (As a matter of interest "replacement level" is approximately twelve goals and four assists. The player with Scoring Stats most closely resembling those numbers is in-demand Espanyol striker Pablo Osvaldo). That is, this probably incorrectly assumes that Messi and Ronaldo are solely responsible for those goals, which may be true in part but definitely not 100% true. Secondly, it emphasises simply how great Cristiano Ronaldo was during the run-in as he chased Hugo Sanchez's Los Merengues scoring record.

You can, however, see how much Barcelona and Real Madrid inflate Spanish averages. Should they (heaven forbid) undergo financial meltdown, the tenor of the entire Spanish League will be changed forever.

In Part Two, we'll examine which players are the most crucial to their individual teams.

For full details, visit Balanced Sports' Scoring Stats page. There, you'll find totals for each team in Europe as well as for all four English divisions.

AC to the AC

League-leading AC Milan have reportedly struck a deal to sign flamboyant Italy forward Antonio Cassano from Sampdoria. It's a curious move by the Rossoneri for a few reasons - most notably the presence of such a wobbly howitzer could destabilise Serie A's form team on and off the field.

Cassano's recent suspension has finished, a ban imposed for a foul-mouthed tirade directed at the club President after being asked to attend an awards function. The Italian media reported his explosion as being heard by several visitors including children, that it was in response to a reasonably-phrased request and seemed to come from nowhere.

To come from nowhere probably isn't accurate - Cassano's been the enfant terrible since his emergence at Bari and has displayed more of these tendencies as his profile has risen. Whether it's been weight clauses, threatening to "walk all the way back to Roma", his glittering form when starting over (again) at the blucerchiati of Sampdoria or fans chanting his name to the Italy coach, his career has hardly been a boring one.

Even he probably admits he crossed the line with his supernovaic anger. He only barely avoided his contract being voided despite his offering to take a 50% wage cut. The explosion was probably already coming after being benched last term for conduct detrimental to the team. With that, another relationship between Cassano and his club had soured.

Given their big rival Inter Milan's poor form, it's puzzling why AC would risk dividing the impressive forward triumvirate of Ibrahimovic, Robinho and Kevin-Prince Boateng? Cassano's talent and goal sense would be handy, but could come at a significant cost to team harmony. Another me-first player in the San Siro dressing room could destabilise the club rather than reinforce it.

Injuries to Filippo Inzaghi and Alexandre Pato combined with Ronaldinho's probable impending departure could represent something of a talent drain, but Boateng has so far proved a very shrewd acquisition and plays in the same position as Cassano - in the hole behind the front-man. In the unlikely event the Rossoneri are planning to let the Ghanaian's loan deal expire then this could create more problems for the coach.

Perhaps Milan are banking on the leadership of their numerous veterans sedating the bad boy of Italian football: rather than being a big fish in a smaller pond, Cassano is now suddenly surrounded by players like Gattuso, Inzaghi, Seedorf, Nesta, Pirlo and Ambrosini. Unfortunately that didn't stop his alleged antics at Roma or Real. It could be he's on an incentive-laden contract with a system of fines and penalties built in. Players are much less likely to sign such deals but surely Milan is in the position of power: given his exhaustion of other opportunities, they need Cassano less than he needs them. Perhaps that's AC's tactic: to simply tie him to the bench should he become too much of a distraction and eat his ample wages the way he devours pastries.

With their league position, squad and the considerable fiscal cost of this deal, it appears Milan have more to lose than to gain. Signing Antonio Cassano could sound like a good idea, but could also be a move that excites other clubs as much as the Milan fans.