World Cup 2014 deserves Iceland, not Ronaldo or Ibrahimovic

The argument that the World Cup would be immeasurably damaged by the absence of either Zlatan Ibrahimovic or Cristiano Ronaldo is understandable, but bobbins. While the sublime skills of these players would be missed – but perhaps not as much as their personalities – one wonders if the presence of  the best players in the world is actually what makes the World Cup great.

One of the greatest players in history, Georgie Best, never played at a World Cup Finals, yet the tournament during his career moved to the forefront of football’s imagination. Some more modern greats have appeared at the Big Dance on multiple occasions, only to continually disappoint. (I’m looking at you, Wayne Rooney. And you, Ronaldinho).

Throughout the qualifying process both Cristiano Ronaldo and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (and the French national team) have trod many stages upon which they might shine. Either or both may still do so – probably to the other’s detriment. But the biggest platform doesn’t necessarily require the biggest stars; the World Cup is more about the sport’s unifying force than the paragon of the sport’s performance.

Seeding the Qualification and playoff draw may help ensure that the best players and most popular teams make it through to the World Cup finals, thereby protecting television rankings in major markets like France. But it does so at the expense of smaller nations who have achieved just as much (and, if relative populations are taken into account, more) to make the final phase of qualification.

If skill begets achievement and achievement deserves its place at the Cup, look no further than the minnows.

Put frankly, the 2014 World Cup would be greater for having Iceland – population 320,000 – enter the Big Dance for the first time in place of Cristiano or Zlatan doing so again. While moments of tremendous skill – often, but not always, perpetrated by the game’s greats – help improve the perceived quality of a tournament, this isn’t the reason why people watch the World Cup.

The Cup’s enduring appeal is a result of the multicultural and festive atmosphere that surrounds it, a product of nation playing nation at an event that occurs only every four years. The greatest and most dramatic moments from the last World Cup – which while perhaps not a great tournament technically, but absolutely engaging – were rarely a solo act of brilliance but the product of team play or the high stakes involved.

Moments of incredible technical prowess don’t make a World Cup. They help, certainly, but the reason the World Cup is the globe’s greatest sporting event isn’t necessarily soft-shoed talent – for that, look to the UEFA Champions League or any match featuring Lionel Messi – but the celebration of national pride and the unlikely stories behind the unfolding events.

AC Milan: Ch-ch-ch-changes

Silvio Berlusconi doesn't do anything by half measures.

Two seasons ago, his club was perhaps the oldest elite team in Europe.  Although football's Peter Pan, Paolo Maldini, had retired, the Rossoneri claimed the Serie A title featuring almost an entire XI of thirtysomethings (Alessandro Nesta,  Mark van Bommel, Massimo Ambrosini, Clarence Seedorf, Gianluca Zambrotta, Pippo Inzaghi, Massimo Oddo, Christian Abbiati, Andrea Pirlo and Gennaro Gattuso).  These decelerating stalwarts were supplemented by some elite "younger" talent like Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Robinho and Alexandre Pato.

2012 sees AC Milan looking forward to their next challenge: building a club around home-developed talent rather than big-money signings.

Strictures imposed by UEFA's Financial Fair Play, coupled with a perilous Italian economy means Berlusconi and co decided the club was best positioned to stare down their future without their gamut of fourth-decade, eight-figure signings.  Over the past two years, the club has sold or released a dozen of their most experienced players (Ibrahimovic, Thiago Silva, Nesta, Seedorf, Zambrotta, Inzaghi, Gattuso, Taye Taiwo, van Bommel, Oddo, Legrottaglie and Pirlo), players with a combined age of 402.  Furthermore, the club finally gave up on Ronaldinho, a player who aged much sooner than anyone would have thought possible.

Replacements have been younger and relatively inexpensive: Philippe Mexes, Kevin-Prince Boateng and perhaps  most excitingly of all, Stephan El Shaarawy.  Although Berlusconi and manager Massimiliano Allegri are likely to enter the transfer market, perhaps for red-half alumnus Kaka or Montpellier central defender Mpou Yang-Mbiwa, global buzzwords "austerity measures" seem to apply at Giuseppe Meazza.

In fact, to compare the anticipated AC Milan starting lineup for their first Serie A match to that of two years ago is almost - but not quite - pointless.  The fourteen  players used that day had an average age of 29.6 - incidentally, the exact same average age that of those players that started Milan's first Serie A match last year.  Only five of those players from two years ago remain at the club.  Should no further purchases be made this transfer window the average AC Milan player would be 26.2, a figure increased by goalkeeper Abbiati who at 35 years old is half a decade older than the next oldest starter.

The turnaround was needed and anticipated.  Even though it was expected, it was still brutal.  The new club, while boasting abundant pace and stamina, will rely heavily upon El Shaarawy, Robinho and Boateng for flair and goals.  Despite not appearing to have the same class as even last year, Berlusconi may have chosen the perfect time to rebuild from within: arch-rivals Inter Milan completed an awful season last term, while the whole of Serie A - particularly champions Juventus - are sweating the results of further match-fixing investigations

Only once these allegations play out will we be able to accurately forecast the Italian league.  Count on one thing though: a changed AC Milan means a changed league.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic, PSG, AC Milan and the carousel

Life is cyclical. Well, at least until it isn't.

However, in football, this is more strangely true than in many other realms.

Take for example Joe Kinnear, who reared his head at Newcastle United in 2008 after nearly a decade submerged by heart trouble, poor results and relegation. The man who signed his pay cheques? Mike Ashley, who was known as a shrewd businessman when he arrived Tyneside; the same man who lost millions – and, for about two years, his mind – before rebuilding the Magpies into a wonderful, cost-effective side.

His reputation may not be restored, but it is certainly rehabilitated.

The carousel nature of football finance has been fixed for years. Some clubs emerge to challenge the established plutocracy, often as those old money sorts trend towards a kind of faux-austerity. However, often the nouveau riche accomplish only a mild sensation before owners who arrive in Ferraris depart the scene in Greyhound buses. Nothing's easier than losing money in sports ownership.

If development isn't sustainable, even the most generous benefactor has a limited capacity for giving away their money. Eventually, if baseplates and failsafes aren't created, the carousel quickly rights itself and all returns to normal: old money persists and questions pursue those who got rich quick.

This week's transaction between AC Milan and Paris Saint-Germain is of this nature. It was a handshake made of Rossoneri fiscal expediency and of PSG's owners, Qatar Investment Authority, buying that ugatti Veyron they always wanted. By shoving what amounts to fob change at both Thiago Silva and Zlatan Ibrahimovic in that most notorious “double swoop”, QIA have rounded off their transfer expenditure at a satisfyingly even €200 million.

As Champions League winners Chelsea and EPL Champions Manchester City have succeeded, so too will PSG. At some stage, however, they will fall – Blackburn Rovers couldn't maintain their mid-nineties success while the most high-profile team of them all, the Galacticos, were only a moderate success. If expectations aren't met, impatient men blow up their creations and begin the cycle again.

Clubs like Liverpool, AC Milan, Barcelona and Manchester United have built up so much equity over decades that their ascent again has become a foregone conclusion. For entities such as PSG, who were created in 1970, that's not necessarily the case; a cycle isn't a short one but could mean years in the wilderness.

A ready example of how to spend their money already exists. Sheikh Mansour has achieved short-term results without sacrificing altogether future, a sign that he hopes to accumulate that same equity. Whether that has been the aim at Chelsea, QPR or PSG is still very much in question.

The old money temporarily cycles down as the new money rises. As always.

The death of Barcelona?

Consecutive defeats to Real Madrid and Chelsea decry this season's Barcelona bandwagon is coming to a faltering and much-needed rest. That hiatus could be temporary or permanent, depending on new coach Tito Villanova's methods; manager in excelsis Josep “Pep” Guardiola confirmed today that he would not return to helm Barca in 2012-13.

There are reasons aplenty behind Barca's slip from the peak of Iberian – and world – football. Some are obvious, such as a squad which struggled to replace injured defenders, the disease of more, Guardiola's almost inevitable burnout and brutal opposition playing solely to absorb the pressure created by Barcelona's passing and then rebound. Key elements Xavi, Carles Puyol and Eric Abidal succumbed to chronic injury and pure bad fortune.

Perhaps the most important latent reason for their “drop” in form this season was that their game barely changed throughout the four years of Guardiola's reign. Why would you change such beautiful football? Guardiola's Barca evokes memories of the Game of Thrones scenes involving the swordmaster Syrio Forel, who in a world of broadsword hackery sees the sword as a weapon capable of beauty as well as efficacy. Forel saw swordplay at a more advanced and exquisite level than his peers.

Courtesy: thesun.co.uk

The past four years of Barcelona football, 2008-09 and 2009-10 especially, has borne witness to such an advanced philosophy. They are the Forel of world football, with a mode and method far in advance of their rivals. However, as anyone who has read/seen the first installment of Game of Thrones will attest, this hardly makes such learning untouchable.

The problem with employing such an advanced method in the age of video is simple: others observe. In any pro sport, what works one year rarely works the following because others catch on, catch up and overtake. When the peloton can take advantage of tools like Synergy Sports and Opta Joe, a sporting thought-leader needs to constantly evolve its game plan on a conscious and subliminal level. Not only do clubs need to do better the basic elements of what they do, but they also need to expand upon those components.

Although a “Naomi Campbell” – a thing of terrifying beauty – Barcelona's modus operandi remained at a stillpoint which enabled dissection and planning.

The counter-argument of “If it ain't broke” has merit. If Barcelona played to their best, they would still defeat every other team in the world without a qualm. It places the squad in a vacuum, reducing competition to a pub discussion “with all things equal”. We watch sport because things aren't equal. The Bell Jar doesn't require a team who has had success at every level to reach their potential each new day amidst injury, form slumps and personal crisis. The continued growth of Barca's game may have provided alternatives on which to fall back during these times.

If a club or player attempts to expand – not re-shape completely – their game, those efforts are never detrimental. Rare is the club who truly succeeds by paring their repertoire back to the basic elements and focusing their play through only one locus. There must be alternate “looks” or second and third avenues down which to play. Over the past year Barcelona haven't provided many different looks; it's compelling testament to their greatness that they were so successful.

It interesting to note that their original Plan B – the Zlatan Zeppelin – arrived and departed within a year. Purchases over the past two years have been like-for-like: Villa, Mascherano, Sanchez and Fabregas. They sold different players like Oriol Romeu and Bojan – committing firmly to the pass-and-move. The instant players wore down or Messi (heaven forbid) was to be injured, the Barcelona underbelly would become instantly exposed. Taking advantage of this glimpse of vulnerability would still need a combination of hard work, skills and brains; but for certain clubs, a victory would now be possible.

Should he want to regain the Spanish crown, Villanova should maintain the same techniques that achieved such Barcelona grace. However, he also needs to make changes significant enough to both tactically outpoint Los Blancos and revitalise his charges. In 21^st century football, homogeneity is the ultimate enemy. Change, for its own sake, is needed at the Camp Nou.

An old adage posits that without losing, winning is meaningless. This iteration of Barcelona, as excellent as they are, will now instinctively place more value on their wins.

Alternative XI: Footballing Autofills

The fantastically funny Dave Gorman podcast features a segment called “Autofill your boots”. In it, a listener is invited to answer quiz questions which have been autofilled by Google's search engine algorithms.

It works like this: if you type the querulous words “Can you” into Google's query box, it suggest the next most likely conclusions to your request. These autofill answers are predicated by one's location and often by search preferences. As you can see below, the most popular completions in the case of “Can you” include “run it”, “feel the love tonight lyrics”, “freeze cheese”, “get mono twice”, “overdose on vitamin c” and “print from an ipad” amongst some other more unsavoury inquiries. Dave then asks the challenger if you can, in fact, contract mononucleosis twice.

 This parlour-game derives from Google's reputation alongside Wikipedia as the font of all knowledge, arbiter of all sexual health questions and the bane of pub trivia masters everywhere. When we enter certain football personalities into Google, the autofills can amuse, tell a sordid tale, sum up or even reveal a public concern for their (potential) religious views or sexuality.

So, without any further introduction, here's the Autofill Eleven – with subs included.

Football's crisis-magnets

How well do we think of our footballers? Inspired by the wonderful webcomic XKCD, I decided to find out which players are represented most negatively on the internet.

The table below shows how frequently a polarising football figure's name arises in an internet article which also features one of these "negative" words: crisis, saga, scandal, row, gaffe, controversy.  For example, nearly 41% of all articles about Wayne Rooney mentioned the word crisis (an astonishing 11,100,000 - approximately).

Player	Total hits	Crisis	Saga	Scandal	Row	Gaffe	Controversy
Wayne Rooney	27200000	40.81%	24.67%	5.48%	53.31%	2.69%	25.40%
Carlos Tevez	14700000	64.69%	38.85%	24.76%	40.41%	3.48%	21.50%
Sepp Blatter	7690000	41.48%	13.52%	35.37%	67.23%	2.51%	27.44%
John Terry	14600000	44.52%	23.29%	4.51%	41.85%	3.47%	24.45%
Zlatan Ibrahimovic	15000000	26.33%	14.33%	17.93%	22.00%	2.55%	12.67%
Jose Mourinho	25800000	39.53%	19.07%	20.23%	32.40%	2.09%	17.02%
David Beckham	60100000	43.93%	40.93%	5.96%	64.73%	2.11%	27.12%
Ronaldo	214000000	31.64%	27.94%	15.05%	17.66%	0.93%	5.00%

The individual words were then googled (along with the player names) to evaluate which words were most associated with which public figure.

Obviously this is hardly definitive, considering the negative word doesn't have to specifically refer to the player, just be featured in the same article. Further complicating matters was that the word "row" has two meanings. Ronaldo was intended to mean "El Fenomeno", the Brazilian legend, but invariably captures much content referring to Real Madrid forward Cristiano Ronaldo.