Summer's transfer "saga" candidates

Each year, one player’s future whereabouts overshadows the impending destinations of all others.  Over the years, that player has been Dimitar Berbatov, Carlos Tevez, Cesc Fabregas and Robin van Persie; each of whom left the club at which they made their name for pastures and challenges new.  It’s time to run our eye over the candidates for this year’s edition of “Summer’s Biggest Transfer”.

Candidate 1: Wayne Rooney

Most interested: Paris Saint-Germain, Arsenal

Rooney has all but stated publicly that he wants a change after nine years at Old Trafford, and most Manchester United fans want to usher him towards the door.  Since a breakout 2009-10, a player known for work rate and invention has stagnated and as a consequence has lost his pre-eminent position in English football.  Markets such as bwinbetting.com have Rooney at short odds to remain at United, but there has been rumoured interest from big-spenders PSG and also from the gleam in Arsene Wenger's eye.

A change of scenery might be the answer both for player and club.  Although United’s recent history is filled with “lifers”, there have also been a fair share of those who trudged off down washout lane.  The fact is that Rooney is a surplus player at United, especially if new manager David Moyes is allowed to thrust a fistfuls at a new striker and/or central midfielder.  It may well be time to go, but his past two years and astonishing wages may make a deal difficult.

Candidate 2: Robert Lewandowski

Most interested: Bayern Munich, Manchester United

Lewandowski might be the best footballing centre-forward in Europe.  He has languorous pace, scores in hatfuls and can play any style of game.  However, he earns approximately €20,000 per week at Borussia Dortmund and is ready for a well-earned payday that Dortmund can’t offer.

Enter – as per usual – Bayern Munich.  The Bavarians boast a remarkable treble-winning squad who look eminently capable of creating the next great club dynasty, reinforced by taking Dortmund’s most prize talent, Mario Götze.  There is little doubt that Lewandowski will move; the issue is simply where.

While Real Madrid have been mentioned, the two most likely destinations are Bayern Munich and Manchester United.  However, with David Moyes’ transfer habits – necessarily – tending towards deadline deals, if Lewandowski doesn’t sign at Bayern by July, expect this one to run and run.

Candidate 3: Gareth Bale

Most interested: Real Madrid, Manchester United

Not only is Bale the single-most damaging player in England, but the Welshman also made himself infinitely more valuable this year by adapting to a more central role for Tottenham Hotspur.  The likelihood is that he will move – if not this year, then next – as Spurs’ chairman Daniel Levy enthusiastically embraces the philosophy that “every player has his price” (see: Modric, Luka; Berbatov, Dimitar; Keane, Robbie; amongst many others).

The debate now is whether or not Bale thinks it best to leave White Hart Lane in 2013 or perhaps to hang around a year for another crack at Champions League qualification.  Real Madrid obviously thinks that he looks good in white, while he might form the most devastating offense in the Premiership should he join Manchester United.

It’s thought, however, that there is a mutual affection between Bale and Los Merengues.  However, he also seems a relatively grounded sort and as a result may become that rare player to value loyalty over money (at least temporarily).  Levy is another management-type for whom the deadline holds no fear, so the smart money says that Bale stays a Spur – for now.

Graphic: Winter transfer activity by date

There's a reason that Transfer Deadline day in European football is such an event - it completely dwarfs the number of deals done throughout the rest of the window.  In fact, 284 players bowled up at new clubs across England's four-tier league system during the monthlong transfer window; nearly a quarter of those deals went down on January 31.

The following chart tracks transfer activity by date throughout the Winter Transfer window, from it's December leadup to flurried conclusion last Thursday.  To qualify, a "transfer" must have been full and permanent and the price either listed, or announced by a club as being "undisclosed", a term which could mean the purchasers were ashamed at the fee paid or that the selling club's patriarch wouldn't mind a nice chunk of any incoming cash.

As always, feel free to click the image to make it much bigger and more easily readable.

Although some might snigger at "eight hours of uninterrupted LIVE deadline day coverage", these figures behove news agencies to keep their men in the field: the sixty-eight player moves signed off on last Thursday was a figure more than three times the next busiest day, and included fresh rumors emerging as late as two hours before the cutoff.

Beckham's PSG move about more than money

David Beckham has earned a lot of publicity both for his free-agency and, more recently, for his nascent move to French gazillionaire-club Paris Saint-Germain.  The fact is that even at age 37, he is easily the single-most recognizable footballer in the world and still earns his coin on the pitch with deadeye dead ball delivery and smart, if limited, movement.

Beckham’s move also earned notoriety because he became the first football figure to donate the entirety of his wages to a local children’s charity.  As usual with a public – and polarizing – figure, this has earned him both acclaim and skepticism.

It is true that Beckham has more money than, well, nearly everyone.  He’s an exceedingly wealthy man.  However donating his salary to a change agency is the first such move I can remember and he should be congratulated for his willingness to help those less fortunate than himself.  It’s a wonderful gesture.

The decision perhaps wasn’t a hard one to make.  The Beckhams will have donated a portion of money to not-for-profits and France’s controversial high-earner’s tax means that he likely would have only taken home 25% of his gross wage.  By donating that money straight to that charity, it would seem the beneficiary organization would receive a greater portion of those monies than Beckham would himself.

(c) Balanced Sports (author's own collection)

Whether it says that David Beckham doesn’t play football for the money is still up for debate.  The fact is that his salary earnings are far outstripped by his incredible endorsement potential (in this chart, Beckham is the fifth-highest endorsement earner of any athlete, behind Tiger Woods, Roger Federer, Phil Mickelson and Kobe Bryant).  That he is still in the limelight and playing in a chic location suggests an undiminished ability to generate off-field income far more lucrative than the relative pittance he’s able to command for delivering balls to Zlatan.

David Beckham has also always been conscious of legacy.  He helped solidify soccer’s popularity in the US and recently announced he wouldn’t sign for a Premier League club because it would pit him against Manchester United.  He might be the athlete most aware of the way he is or will be perceived historically and offering weekly cheques with four or five zeroes in them is a publicity boon – for him, and his Qatari employers, whose public perception has suffered since controversially winning the rights to stage the 2022 World Cup.

It’s a genius move.  It’s also really worthwhile both financially and philosophically.  It’s likely there are more reasons at play than simply altruism, but when the results are so beneficent it just doesn’t matter – (most) everyone wins.

Mario Balotelli joins AC Milan, continues to confuse

Many teams have improved themselves this transfer window.  There have been short-term additions like Sporting KC forward Kei Kamara’s six-month audition with Norwich City, bargains, as well as deals with a view to a long term future (see Zaha, Wilfried and Shea, Brek). 

There has even been the odd case of addition by subtraction.

The most prominent deal of this type involves Mario Balotelli.  His two-plus years playing for Manchester City had exhausted his employers and yesterday he was sent to the red side of Milan for a fee approximating £17 million.

That such a talent as Balotelli was released by City without argument is a sign of the disdain in which he is held at the Etihad campus.  The negatives finally outweighed the positives, with the final straw perhaps coming four weeks ago as the temperamental forward became involved in a physical altercation with coach – and his most prominent backer – Roberto Mancini.

While the deal may help the City dressing room coalesce and focus on overhauling crosstown rivals Manchester United, it also rids the club of their most gifted player.  With Balotelli, there are no absolutes – he every statement about him must be accompanied by a “but”, an “if” or a “when”.

Mario Balotelli is a player with a presence so large that you can’t judge anything he does from only one angle.  He is a colourful, 3D character in a world that paint its characters like Steamboat Willy.  This might be his greatest hurdle in keeping popular sentiment positive: football media often portrays its subjects in unforgiving black and white.

He is the most talented Italian striker to emerge since Antonio Cassano (at least) and also a man who exemplifies persistent problems with authority.  He’s a genius, and a madman.  A word or a sentence isn’t enough to articulate the truth of Mario Balotelli.

A three-dimensional outlook is also the only way to evaluate his transfer to the Fashion City.  He will win games for the Rossoneri, but also frustrate.  It’s a win for Manchester City, but also a loss – talents like Mario emerge twice a decade.  How very Balotelli.

Wesley Sneijder joins Galatasaray from Inter Milan

Holland star Wesley Sneijder has permanently joined Turkish Super Lig giants Galatasaray.  The deal, reportedly for a fee of around €10 million, should be a snip for a player who at 28 years of age isn’t just still in his prime, but eminently capable of being one of the top five footballers in the world.

Sneijder’s time at Inter Milan had run its course.  His lavish wages – and perhaps his abrasive nature – didn’t fit with club President Massimo Moratti’s schemes for a leaner Internazionale; the result was his exile from the club in September for refusing a contract which would scale his wages back by a seven-figure sum.

Galatasaray’s fans went bonkers at Sneijder’s presentation, as well they might: the player is a precocious talent and is dressed entirely with the arrogance that often accompanies the artisan.

While the fact Sneijder was sold is interesting in itself, his impact on his new club will be well worth watching. While they are a quality team, Galatasaray are headlined by familiar names – Altintop, Riera, Melo, Elmander – rather than superstars.  It will be Sneijder (who will fit in slightly forward of Felipe Melo and behind Turkey striker Burak Yilmaz), Hamit Altintop and then then everyone else.  “The Smurf” will be called on to provide not only provide his trademark passing, but also a sense of the spectacular and confidence that Galatasaray are capable of beating anyone.

That he has moved reinforces again the nomadic nature of football.  While player movement has always been a fixture of the sport –Sneijder himself has moved emigrated three times – the number of truly great players who have changed club colours over the past five years is amazing. 

Scanning the Guardian’s recent list of the 100 best players in the world reveals that within that hundred, there have been 49 transfers since the conclusion of the most recent World Cup.  Twelve of these involve players listed as being in the Guardian’s Top 30.  Of those same 49, nineteen occurred before or during the current season.

Player movement is great.  It allows for a renewed interest not often seen in sports with salary caps, and provides for hope when perhaps the previous season there was none.  Even though Galatasaray are currently perched atop the Super Lig table, the addition of a world-class player like Wesley Sneijder gives their fans reason for excitement (and to set off flares) at the hope of further challenging Europe’s best teams.

Huntelaar a great fit at Liverpool

Reds fans must be salivating.  Liverpool have today been linked with Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, the 29-year old Dutch goalpoacher extraordinaire of Schalke 04.  Should the transfer come to fruition – which is eminently possible, but a long way off – it would remedy perhaps Liverpool’s greatest failing so far this term, converting on-ball dominance into goals.

So far this year, Liverpool rank sixth in the Premiership in possession, spending over 52 minutes per game with the ball.  They get shots off, too – averaging nearly nineteen a contest.  However, the Reds have managed only 13 goals all season for a conversion rate of 7% - a modest figure when compared to other teams who dominate the ball like Manchester City (9.5%), Arsenal (9.1%) and Manchester United (16.8%).  Expect these totals to regress to the mean somewhat – City managed 12.6% last year, the Gunners 11.6 and United 13.8% – but such a low total help throw Liverpool’s lack of consistent goal scorers into sharp relief. 

(Liverpool managed to score on only 7% of their chances last season as well, however this was under the system employed by then-boss Kenny Dalglish).

Some of these numbers are surely attributed to the systems each club deploys, no doubt, but as Robin van Persie has proved at United, you can always find room for a forward with spidey-sense.

Liverpool have been almost universally praised for their industry and creativity so far this term; however, the improvements in game style have yet to materialise as the wins the fans – and Rodgers himself – expect.

 This is where Huntelaar should help.  While Luis Suarez has been in sparkling form and was described by manager Brendan Rodgers on Sunday as “unplayable”, accuracy isn’t necessarily his strongest suit: his conversion rate of 11% this term is up from 8.6% last season. Huntelaar’s past three seasons has seen his cumulative conversion rate reach a stellar of 20.5% – over 2 percent greater than van Persie’s over the same period.

Transfers are never really done until they’re done.  Just ask Fiorentina.  They should always be taken with a hefty pinch of salt.  However, if one rumour gets Liverpool fans licking their chops, it should be this one.

Liverpool, not Arsenal, right for Sahin

Nuri Sahin appears close to signing on loan for Brendan Rodgers' new Liverpool. The temporary (?) transfer promises to add to a midfield that didn't convincingly implement a new pass 'n' press gameplan in an opening day loss to West Bromwich Albion.

Turkish playmaker Sahin conducted the exquisite Borussia Dortmund midfield for several seasons before moving to current club Real Madrid before last season. He promptly found himself a fixture on the bench, squeezed out in preference of the powerful triumvirate of Sami Khedira, Xabi Alonso and Mesut Ӧzil. He has the nous, physique and game to make a significant contribution to the Anfield mob this season.

It had been thought that Sahin would move to Arsenal, perhaps as a direct replacement for Alex Song who, shortly after Robin van Persie, discovered the not-so-secret tunnel that allows players to escape from the Emirates. Now a deal with Liverpool seems imminent and more the better for the player.

Rodgers' preferred tactical system demands his central midfielders be mobile, efficient and to play both attack and defence. It doesn't hurt if they can pass, either. If the centre-mids overcommit or don't/can't harry effectively, the possession-heavy game style becomes exposed to counter-attack. Swansea City's performances while implementing a pass-press approach earned Rodgers the Liverpool job, but the Reds don't quite have the horses to completely adopt either the pass or the press: Rodgers' current midfield features too many players unable to adapt their games to his liking.

Big-ticket Kenny Dalglish items Charlie Adam and Jordan Henderson haven't synched well with the Rodgers manifesto; academy graduates Jonjo Shelvey and Jay Spearing may never. Acquiring another pivot players became paramount before harrier Lucas Leiva or new buy Joe Allen succumbed to injury or fatigue. Sahin would play heaps and could even conceivably become Liverpool's featured player.

While Arsenal leapt at the opportunity to bring in Sahin, negotiations with Real Madrid have hardly been smooth. Sahin would fit – apart from Real, there are few places he wouldn't – but would be another class player at a club which seems allergic to grunt. Even Song, who ostensibly occupied the defensive midfield position for five years, thought of himself as more playmaker than combatant.

The Gunners – like many other EPL squads – lack a Tiote-type, paid primarily to win back possession; at Anfield, the press (and Lucas) this need is minimised. Sahin at Arsenal would duplicate talent – he'd be very handy, but not address the club's most pressing need. While surrounded by Jack Wilshere, Aaron Ramsey, Mikel Arteta and, most blindingly, Santi Cazorla, Sahin may never develop into the “franchise player” he could become.

This makes the impending move to Merseyside the best option – for Nuri Sahin, and football watchers everywhere.

(Original article date: 24th August)

What Robin van Persie could mean to Manchester United

With Arsenal captain Robin van Persie certain to sign for Manchester United, the balance of power in the English Premier League shifts again towards the country's northwest. Despite Arsenal's best efforts to provide him with support in the form of the deepest squad of his tenure at the Emirates, van Persie's quest for self-actualisation through silverware now continues at Old Trafford.

Manchester United supporters will be happy with the purchase: it cements their position as a destination club, goals are always welcome and the transfer fee – despite reaching a rumoured ₤24 million – is quite justifiable should the van Persie provide even three years of quality play.

He will (likely) start at the pointy end of Sir Alex Ferguson's preferred one-striker formations, the 4-4-1-1 or 4-2-3-1. This means, despite ink suggesting other centre-forwards will be marginalised, it seems far more likely that fellow new signing Shinji Kagawa or established wide men like Ashley Young will be most affected. With Kagawa, Tom Cleverley, youngster Nick Powell, Rooney and Young all probably best employed behind the striker, pessimists suggest the club has too many players in competition for one role.

That Ferguson purchased Kagawa this summer, Young last year, as well as advancing Cleverley, suggests the United manager favours a mobile, multifocal attack where numerous players are able to threaten opposing defences. This flexibility fits with his formation preference, which ostensibly affords better support for an creaking central midfield from a mobile forward corps. When attacking, the mosquito-fleet forwards can then run at defences rather than depending upon glamour balls to isolated target men.

United's best play this century came from 2007-2009 with a fluid 4-3-3. When they effectively replaced the versatile Cristiano Ronaldo with the more orthodox Dimitar Berbatov, an element of that interoperability was lost.

Although he was hardly a failure, it was perhaps a sense of tactical straightforwardness which led to Berbatov's purchase in 2008. In spite of a reported ₤30 million price tag, Berbatov was rarely deployed in big matches and almost never by himself: his lack of acumen and (apparently) inclination reducing his effectiveness in the critical poacher's role. Berbatov's languor and uncanny lead-up play has always been suited best to the 4-4-2. As United have attempted to increase their flexibility, Berbatov has become a bench fixture. van Persie is not nearly so limited.

Although sometimes very effective – c.f. Martin O'Neill's success at Aston Villa and Sunderland – it is tactical naïveté to suggest that “defenders defend, attackers attack and midfielders link the two”. When competing against the best clubs in the world, such simplicity is quickly rendered obsolete, and the flat, age-old 4-4-2 formation is now utilised less and less in truly elite teams.

Courtesy: guardian.co.uk

The lessons taught by Champions League drubbings against Barcelona may have been learnt. Messi, Xavi and Iniesta, the three most important players in what was popularly acknowledged as the best team in recent memory, all prefer to operate centrally. Of course there are differences and these changes may just be a stall until Ferguson develops or acquires a supertalented central hub. Ferguson may opt to shuffle – no-one really knows what the old fox has in mind: signing Robin van Persie could simply be the managerial equivalent of a mid-life crisis sports car.

However, optimists could perhaps see him as the final step in United's journey towards fully embracing a more fluid tactical system.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic, PSG, AC Milan and the carousel

Life is cyclical. Well, at least until it isn't.

However, in football, this is more strangely true than in many other realms.

Take for example Joe Kinnear, who reared his head at Newcastle United in 2008 after nearly a decade submerged by heart trouble, poor results and relegation. The man who signed his pay cheques? Mike Ashley, who was known as a shrewd businessman when he arrived Tyneside; the same man who lost millions – and, for about two years, his mind – before rebuilding the Magpies into a wonderful, cost-effective side.

His reputation may not be restored, but it is certainly rehabilitated.

The carousel nature of football finance has been fixed for years. Some clubs emerge to challenge the established plutocracy, often as those old money sorts trend towards a kind of faux-austerity. However, often the nouveau riche accomplish only a mild sensation before owners who arrive in Ferraris depart the scene in Greyhound buses. Nothing's easier than losing money in sports ownership.

If development isn't sustainable, even the most generous benefactor has a limited capacity for giving away their money. Eventually, if baseplates and failsafes aren't created, the carousel quickly rights itself and all returns to normal: old money persists and questions pursue those who got rich quick.

This week's transaction between AC Milan and Paris Saint-Germain is of this nature. It was a handshake made of Rossoneri fiscal expediency and of PSG's owners, Qatar Investment Authority, buying that ugatti Veyron they always wanted. By shoving what amounts to fob change at both Thiago Silva and Zlatan Ibrahimovic in that most notorious “double swoop”, QIA have rounded off their transfer expenditure at a satisfyingly even €200 million.

As Champions League winners Chelsea and EPL Champions Manchester City have succeeded, so too will PSG. At some stage, however, they will fall – Blackburn Rovers couldn't maintain their mid-nineties success while the most high-profile team of them all, the Galacticos, were only a moderate success. If expectations aren't met, impatient men blow up their creations and begin the cycle again.

Clubs like Liverpool, AC Milan, Barcelona and Manchester United have built up so much equity over decades that their ascent again has become a foregone conclusion. For entities such as PSG, who were created in 1970, that's not necessarily the case; a cycle isn't a short one but could mean years in the wilderness.

A ready example of how to spend their money already exists. Sheikh Mansour has achieved short-term results without sacrificing altogether future, a sign that he hopes to accumulate that same equity. Whether that has been the aim at Chelsea, QPR or PSG is still very much in question.

The old money temporarily cycles down as the new money rises. As always.

The Dempsey Dilemma

courtesy: mlssoccer.com

Clint Dempsey is having another fantastic – and well-documented – season for Fulham. In fact, his conspicuous excellence for three successive managers in concert with a slowly expiring contact (June 2013) mean England's most scurrilous have started to chirrup about a potential move to a “bigger” club.

Is he good enough? Can he deliver in the Champions League?

In all honesty, it's unlikely to matter.

The simple fact is that Clint Dempsey may move on from Fulham, but it is hardly likely to be for a significant fee. He is caught in a quandary where his age (29) and skill-set (floating attacker) make him cute to suitors – the quote-unquote “bigger” clubs – but not that attractive.

That said, not ₤12-15 million attractive, which is a sum nearing that for which Fulham are likely to ask.

The Whites will have to ask for that significant price for many reasons. Because he's been their most potent attacking threat in nearly half a century and debatably their best player (not wash-up) since Johnny Haynes. Dempsey, rapping an' all, is one of – if not the – most marketable Fulham players and continues a great recent Fulham tradition of attracting a rather large market across the Atlantic.

And he provided the goal or assist for 49% of all Fulham's Premiership scores this year. That level of contribution is amongst Europe's elite.

Yet despite the plaudits and numbers, Dempsey's signature will hardly going to inspire fan confidence for a side that spends big on him. “Big” club fans to want reputations as well as proven history – witness the negative reaction to the solid Mikel Arteta signing for Arsenal. Spending the kind of cash Fulham would demand for a guy who would in effect become a bit-part player, doesn't look like good business. This is even more true considering the transfer-induced boost in Dempsey's salary, would be accompanied by occasional games rather than the week-in, week-out football which allowed him to blossom at Craven Cottage.

Should he hope for a move, “Deuce” can however rely on one redeeming factor. Despite football's Moneyball manifesto dying an inglorious Red death, there is one statistic which regularly translates to success: proven goalscoring ability. Papiss Demba Cisse, Demba Ba and Yakubu have elegantly proven this season that the ability to score goals at a top European league (especially in the Premiership) is worth the investment.

Despite this, it's hard to see Clint Dempsey leaving West London this summer. While he could perhaps thicken his wallet, it's hard to see any club willing to pay him and a likely upscale transfer fee.

Craig Bellamy - the signing of the season?

Everyone loves something for nothing.  In the high-priced world of professional football, the same is even more true.  When in August last year Kenny Dalglish asked Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini nicely for Craig Bellamy, the Liverpool icon became the proud “owner” of one very cheap, slightly-used Welsh forward.

That very cheap, slightly used Welsh forward – who spent last season on loan at his hometown club, Cardiff City – has since been one of the Reds’ best players and without question has provided the best value for money of all Liverpool’s 2011 acquisitions.  Considering the plentiful concerns about Bellamy’s physical condition –his knees are reportedly bad enough to prevent him from playing three matches in a row – the contract he signed on Merseyside is for a quite reasonable two years.

In fact, despite only a month ago crowning Sergio Aguero the Premiership’s best signing of 2011, it’s time to reconsider that honour in Bellamy’s favour.  With the difference in transfer fees paid and the disparity in the pair’s respective wages, the title is now the fiery Welshman’s to lose.

As an aside, Bellamy’s success at Liverpool, in concert with defender Nedum “You were such a nice man” Onuoha’s £2.5 million sale to QPR, makes one ponder the validity of City asking so much for sensation-magnet Carlos Tevez.  City have insisted on receiving close to market value for their pugnacious former front man (as well as for other superfluous players Adebayor and Santa Cruz) when they have essentially discarded quality EPL players like Bellamy, Onuoha and Shaun Wright-Phillips for a handful of coppers.

As Tevez has reportedly been fined over £9 million for his repeated indiscretions, his probable profit from any deal (with a signing bonus possibly a percentage of any transfer fee paid) is something City should be hoping to avoid.  This, and possible (though this sounds far-fetched) savings on his wages, mean any substantive monies they receive from his sale should be seen as gravy. 

Given past experience, he is likely to haunt them no matter what fee they may accept for his signature – so the Citizens may as well just move him on and save themselves some more Tevez-induced fiscal heartburn.

Everton failing to paper over the cracks

It’s time to talk about money.  To be precise, about Everton FC owner Bill Kenright’s lack thereof. 

One of England’s great clubs has begun the slow decline that accompanies a squad’s ageing and find themselves in eleventh position.  They are in no threat of relegation, but the club faces a greater existential crisis than any other club with a similarly storied history.

The Toffees have been on the market – if not officially, certainly on the sly – for much of the past decade.  Kenwright has attempted to fund assaults on the Champions League, but lately manager David Moyes’ spending money has become increasingly scarce.  Over the past two years, impact players have rarely made the sojourn to Goodison Park and Moyes has repeatedly squeezed blood from young, cheap stones like Seamus Coleman and Ross Barkley.

Much has been made of Everton’s fiscal situation, as well it might.  Moyes has been able to propel small, limited – and often injured – squads to outstanding achievement in the past.  He and a small band of loyal overachievers have been able to mask a fraught balance sheet.  He has been the Premiership’s MacGyver manager – able to create ingenious macguffin lineups out of little more than what he finds in his pocket.

As things now stand, more apparently than at any time in the past decade, the Toffees lack bite on the field.  Mikel Arteta has left the building; the ghosting runs of Tim Cahill now fail to deliver goals and Marouane Fellaini is no longer thought of as a potential World-Class prospect.  Their players have all been solid, but the Blues need more – the element of magic exists now more in the computers of their accountants than on the field.  Their top scorer in all competitions this season is left back Leighton Baines.

Great Premiership players have become simply good ones.  Over the past two seasons, the players who’ve tried to fill the practically-vacant striker position include the ageing, hamstrung Louis Saha and the underwhelming trio of Jermaine Beckford, Denis Stracqualursi and Victor Anichebe.  Papering over the offensive cracks in the Everton lineup has become a full-time occupation.

This hardly speaks for Moyes’ management skills and he is still held in incredibly high regard by football people all over the British Isles.  However, the regeneration required for clubs to keep themselves at the top level has eluded the Toffees.  Disconcertingly, there is every chance their best attacking player is the on-loan Landon Donovan and their best player overall his USA teammate Tim Howard. 

Unless this dearth of upper echelon talent is rectified, their run as Premier League overachievers will almost certainly end soon.

Arsene Wenger: trying times under the wage-cap

As his fief struggles under the weight of a popular uprising, Arsene Wenger's reign from a high castle somewhere in the vicinity of Highbury appears destined to begin a decline. He has reigned justly and in the beauty of esoteric splendour for fifteen years in North London but appears unable to still this latest unrest.

Very few managers in the game have his alchemical ability to consistently synthesise young superstars from mere talent. Over the past decade that talent has most notably taken the form of Cesc Fabregas, Jack Wilshere, Robin van Persie, Gael Clichy and Samir Nasri. Clichy has departed while popular punditry appear in accord that it is a matter of "when" and not "if" Fabregas and Nasri join them. Wenger has sold some of his charges willingly, such as when Thierry Henry and Aliaksandr Hleb departed Arsenal to join Barcelona. Others, like Nasri, he appears to want to keep close.

courtesy: en.wikipedia.org

As yet more Spanish players declare publicly Fabregas' burgeoning desire to play for his Catalan home club, Wenger's media comments seem more aggravated and weary than inspired. Considering his Northern nemesis, Sir Alex Ferguson, has never played the media or public better than when Wayne Rooney announced he wanted out of United in October last year, this may be a poor portent indeed.  The Rooney incident was over within ten days. Sir Alex's form as two years of Cristiano Ronaldo transfer rumours persisted was to become increasingly bombastic ("I wouldn't sell that mob a virus"). It seems Wenger has passed that stage (of grief?) and is now simply tired.

His more powerful declaration yesterday that "Big clubs don't sell their stars" is, for the most part, true. He has fought for three summers to retain captain Fabregas, while very few other global superstars move clubs without the vendors receiving way above market value. Unfortunately, he seems to be riding the misapprehension that Arsenal are a big club in the business of world football. That may not be true any more. Unfortunately, the Professor is handicapped by a wage ceiling, meaning he's unable to pay players more than ₤90,000 per week, comparative peanuts to the salaries doled out by the fiscal elite of world football.

While they remain one of the best ten teams in the world. that wage ceiling in itself earmarks Arsenal - a big, successful club with an enormous, loyal supporter base - as not being a member of the roundball financial elite. While he may decry "Big clubs don't sell their stars", it is without realising the fundamental fact that, until the new stadium is paid off and the wage ceiling disappears, the Gunners will be forced to sell their best players as they demand pay rises.  Financially, Arsenal aren't in the top five in the world (top ten, even) - meaning competing with cash-flush heavyweights automatically becomes that much more difficult.

Emirates stadium was designed to make Arsenal an economic superpower in the football world. In concert with continued investment from Stan Kroenke, the club may once again enter the elite echelon of football-nomics. But the precedents set by Chelsea, Real Madrid and Manchester City mean there is now a two-tier system even within the richest of the rich in football. And though Arsenal are among the wealthiest clubs in the world, they aren't a member of that select "billionaire's row".

Gooners should hope Wenger is not losing his fire, for to maintain their grip on the top four facing harsher mercantile realities than their competition, Arsenal will need him at his absolute best.

Charlie Adam: from Bottom to Top

Charlie Adam appears to have finally sealed a move to Liverpool, six months after it was first mooted during the January transfer window. Now, the questions that remain aren't so much when and how much (a mooted ₤7 million-plus-loanees), but how he and his magical left boot will fit into Liverpool's now increasingly crowded central midfield. While he indubitably has the skill, fire and vision, his greatest drawback may be his body shape as he hearkens back to the days of solid footballers, rather than lithe athletes.

Charlie Adam's Wikipedia page in January

Perhaps more interestingly, he becomes the first player to jump from a Premiership relegated club to one of the "big" clubs in quite some considerable time. He is certainly the first to go to an established , Old-School"Big Four" club for a sizeable fee (and thus expectation) since Peter Crouch moved from the south coast to the north-west. This indicates easily how reliant on him Blackpool became, and also how warmly fellow Scot Kenny Dalglish must think of his countryman.

Over the past few seasons, plenty of players have used the predicament of relegation to their advantage: in fact, raiding the relegated has become an annual pastime for those clubs chock-full of TV revenue. After season 2010-2011 alone, many players stand to improve their footballing and financial fortunes as their clubs slide back into the Championship. Adam's fellow Blackpool standouts David Vaughan, Matt Gilks and DJ Campbell look likely to depart - or have already. The entire Birmigham City defense looks liable to be for sale to the highest bid considering their English roots and 2009-10 efficacy, while Scott Parker, Rob Green, Carlton Cole, Thomas Hitzlsperger and Matthew Upson are all established Internationals with English roots and an eye for Premier League, rather than Championship, football.

That most (if not all) these players will be in the Premiership next term is testament to the wonderful season of English Premier League football we have just experienced - not vintage in terms of great play, but by recent standards surprising, combative and very, very even.

But very few players make the leap from the very bottom to the very top. Those who do often arrive as role players or depth and without significant expectation. In recent memory, those that stand out as being snaffled by top-six sides include Crouch, Michael Owen's fabulous Bosman from Newcastle to a new injury-list in the red half of Manchester and Ross Turnbull's astonishing free to Chelsea - surprising more for the Blues' desire than for any other reason; he's subsequently played two matches in two years. 

That clubs as small as Wigan and Blackpool have been able to make a good fist of staying up speaks volumes of the uniform nature of the Premier League when both could so easily have simply faded into gauche unadventurous football. Both clubs have in past had one player on whom they relied: the Tangerines on Adam, and the Latics last year on Charles N'Zogbia. They are almost featured players - soloists in otherwise pedestrian orchestras.

This reluctance for the big clubs to spend on the little guy could come for a couple of reasons - because the bigger fish may reason that the player isn't sufficiently talented or because there are better players available for a similar cost. Perhaps, amidst the ghastly sums thrown about for unproven and sulky forwards, the big clubs are seeking some semblance of Return on Investment; by opting for tried performers - albeit talent coming from performances in vastly different systems.

Of course such theories are debunked easily and painfully by the ₤50 million Manchester United has offloaded already, a rumoured ₤20 million bid for Downing from Liverpool and Chelsea's concerted - and potentially unrequited - chase for Neymar.  While Financial Fair Play apparently isn't restricting the big clubs' overall spending, it is having a more subtle impact - it requires them to hold out for fiscal, as well as footballing Return on Investment. Ferguson's willingness to sell one-club lieutenants seems to indicate the greatest contribution they can now make to the Red Devils could be evening United's balance sheet.

As clubs enter the Premiership with a plan - and do good jobs of sticking to that blueprint - prepare to witness more of this phenomenon. All of QPR, Norwich City and Swansea City play an unsophisticated method - and the Canaries and Swans are exciting to watch. This could result in the same occurring next year: with Scott Sinclair, Wes Hoolahan or even James McCarthy taking the role of featured soloist.

An Open Letter to Carlos Tevez

Dear Carlos Tevez,

For five years now you've been a shedload of trouble for the entire English Premier League. With this letter, I'd like to invite you to please stop moaning about the loneliness of Northern England and return to Argentina as you have for so long suggested you'd like.

The biannual farce which into which the "Carlos Tevez submits Transfer Request" headline has degenerated - which while admittedly spurring me to write this letter - has become a parody of a a parody, like a Monty Python sketch which starts funny but then feels as if it never ends. While we all understand how trying it is to be parted from friends and family (some of us have even shared your heartbreaking isolation in a country in which we do not speak the language), complaining every six months about a situation into which you walked of your own volition has turned what begun a sympathetic posture into a cynical one.

Please understand I'm not trying to minimise the pain of separation from your daughters at all. It's just the predictability with which this storm-in-a-teacup occurs means you have exhausted any supply of public sympathy for your plight. (And "earning" 200,000+ a week should preclude us from using the world "plight" anyway). Unless it is for obviously laudable reasons a transfer request is often met with scorn from your current team's support base. After being trotted out several times now, the recent spate of "I miss my daughters" has morphed from a tragic reality of a footballer's life into seemingly a ploy where - though undoubtedly true you miss your girls - the aim seems to be directing public ire away from you in a situation almost entirely of your own creation.  If this sounds familiar, think "Bomber" Thompson.

Welcomed to "Manchester".  Will he be farewelled as fondly?

It was said of the great basketballer Shaquille O'Neal that, with the exception of his last teams Boston and Cleveland, whenever he moved clubs, he did so amidst acrimonious circumstance. The same could be said of you - at Boca, at Corinthians, West Ham and finally Manchester United you have left more enemies than friends. Which, on the face of it, is really quite sad and perhaps - just perhaps - gives the public eye a big glimpse of your inner happiness. In a game where one often has to look out for themselves first, you and Kia Joorabchian have done so admirably; but if your latest statements are to be believed, it hasn't contented you.

Many of us have had to move intercontinentally. It is exceedingly difficult, though ultimately rewarding - it allows us to grow, to see that life is much larger than the small corners of existence we previously inhabited. Some of us are rewarded romantically, spiritually or even fiscally for the pain of separation.

You certainly have earned signficant monies as a result of your footballing success - so why not put some of that where your cakehole is? Rather than having said sweet baked good and eating it too, take (one mother of) a pay cut to play in South America - for none of us are able to figure out how Madrid or Milan - or, heaven forbid, Chelsea - are closer to Argentina than Millionaire's row in Cheshire. It's not that we don't feel for you, but many of us think you're trying to use this situation to your gain. It seems your position is that you are disadvantaged by playing for City; a move to Real or Inter would be "fair".

Unfortunately, that is a posture for the misguided.

In careers, we are forced to take the good with the bad. In football, if you want the big bucks and the best competition, you are forced to move. It is a flat fact of existence at the top level of almost any profession. Sacrifices must be made for a career - or for family. And while we applaud you for your devotion to your daughters, we also implore you to put up, or shut up. For the ball is in your court.

Sincerely,

A very bored former admirer.

The author would like all who read this to know that he has no truck with Monty Python and indeed thinks they were amongst (if not THE) the greatest comedians of all time.

Harry Kewell the answer to A-League's Marquee question?

The Hyundai A-League - and by extension, the Football Federation of Australia - reels from one crisis to another. If it's not declining crowd numbers, owners threatening to close stands rather than see empty seats, franchises folding, disastrous World Cup bids (corruption or not) or even stars entering fan forums, then it's clubs failing to take advantage of the league's generous marquee player policy.

Of course most of these problems can be traced back to one thing - A-League clubs are struggling to make ends meet. Football ranks a clear fourth on the Australian football consciousness behind Australian Rules, Rugby League and Rugby Union. Therefore the sport tends to pick up hard core fans, bandwagon supporters leftover from World Cups and the occasional family based around a growing number of Soccer Mums. This is to be expected however, having remained unchanged for five yeras - and the sport, though not making quantum leaps in popularity, forms a much greater part in the nation's sporting psyche.

The A-League now allows each club three marquee players, ostensibly top-end guys whose wages are not counted towards a team's salary cap: an International Marquee player, a Marquee Australian and a Marquee Youth player. These rules exist in theory to both lure top end talent and protect young assets. While this is a generous format, the FFA (who administer the A-League) does not contribute to the players' salaries, the result of this being A-League clubs draw five to ten-thousand fans per match are forced to pay players like Sergio Van Dijk, Robbie Fowler and his Perth Glory replacement Liam Miller serious dollars.

In business, organisations almost always must spend money to make it. It's the way the world works - wise investment brings about fiscal rewards and peace of mind. It was thus when Dwight Yorke signed for Sydney FC for the A-League's first campaign - he signed for the lifestyle, found the football to his liking, led Sydney to the A-League title and secured a move back to the English Premier League with Sunderland. It was coincidence that he (along with the Victory's Archie Thompson) was the first big name to join, but he is now the A-League's definitive Marquee Player and the benchmark - for better or worse - by which all subsequent imports are judged.

Yorke's situation was the perfect combination of circumstance: famously involved in a big club (Manchester United), with a sparkling, eloquent public profile and due to Trinidad & Tobago's 2006 World Cup campaign, still with reasons to perform other than personal pride. That Manchester United connection created a 10% increase in crowds across the league - Yorke was a man the crowds came to watch. Subsequent marquee signings like Robbie Fowler haven't had the same impact either on the pitch or as a league ambassador.

Approaching the A-League's seventh season, the ten clubs employ a grand total of Three Junior Marquee players, four Australian Marquee players and two (!) international "stars" - New Zealand striker Shane Smeltz and former Dutch U21 International Van Dijk. The Australian Marquee players are Archie Thompson, Mile Sterjovski, Nicky Carle and Jason Culina. Culina perhaps aside, it's difficult - impossible, even - to see any of those six transferring to a high-level club abroad.

The marquee player must in future be modeled on Dwight Yorke. He shouldn't be the only prototype as South Americans also could well check the requisite boxes, but it must be remembered antipodean crowds have a far greater knowledge of European football than the Samba style (no, not Christopher). Not only must such a player sparkle on the pitch, but he must be able to provide a lift to the league in the media.

Some players linked to out-of-cap positions - like Harry Kewell - could perform those functions; others however, most notably Serb striker Mateja Kežman, are a risky proposition. Melbourne in particular has a large Slavic population and could provide a slight bump in local crowds but club executives must ask themselves if a player such as serial-mover Kežman could warrant such spendthrift expenditure - does his one season at Chelsea, four at PSV and cups of coffee at Fenerbahce, PSG and Atletico really provide the league-wide PR lift the A-League so desperately needs? While his age and skills could well justify the salary slot he'd take up, would his name inspire the Rugby League fan to join? Or the AFL nut?

Australian soccer consciousness, so far increased since the magical 2006 World Cup, is still really in its infancy. It is so far behind that, for better or worse, it takes big names, not just quality footballers, to get the alert sporting landscape to attend. And with the local clubs haemmorhaging money, is it in fact prudent to spend $40,000AUD a week on a player not a "sure thing"?

The FFA must step in and contribute. Perhaps it could facilitate local teams signing the fading superstars of the game, if only on one-season deals. Though the game's governing body is skint from a highly unsuccessful World Cup hosting bid, contributing a small percentage of an international marquee player's salary to each team strictly for that purpose could be an option.

While Australian "marquee" players aid the competition, the league now understands it is names who will grow the sport. Of Australians, only Kewell could fit that bill. It takes money to make money and as abhorrent as spending more money sounds to leaky propositions such as Central Coast and the Gold Coast, prudent investment may be the best way forward.

Would Roberto Carlos, Alessandro Del Piero, Shunsuke Nakamura or even Theofanis Gekas be interested in a final payday? Even though Clarence Seedorf and Florent Malouda have suggested a desire to play in Brazil, both have the requisite stature and ability for them to be attractive targets for Aussie clubs. Perhaps with all six the answer would be negative, but certainly they would be players of whom League chiefs should be aware.

The A-League is a good league. By inspiring the masses - and cashing in on their attendance - it can become very good.

Balanced Sports on Soccerlens: Sir Alex Ferguson needs to Spend

Balanced Sports has once again been published on Soccerlens - suggesting Sir Alex Ferguson needs to spend in order to retire on top at Manchester United.