The A-League: spread too thin

The furore surrounding Clive Palmer and Gold Coast United has cast more unwanted focus on soccer's position in the Australian sporting hierarchy. The club failing is bad enough, but for component on-field parts to auction themselves to prospective employers is like your soon-to-be ex auditioning potential replacements in front of your eyes.

Most galling of all is for this failure to occur in particularly high-growth area in the fastest-growing state in the nation. If football couldn't survive – demented patriarch or not – on the Gold Coast, there are few options left for A-League expansion. The league looks destined to stay in the same locations. And this may be for the best.

Realistically, there are only two more locations into which the A-League can try and expand naturally into a city with a population large enough to support the game. The league has already failed in both locations, Auckland and the Gold Coast. Despite it's size, Auckland also drags with it the baggage of New Zealand clubs playing in the domestic league of an Asian confederation member when the country competes in the Oceania confederation. Other possible expansion locations are also fraught with problems – the AFL's Cats countenance no rivals in Geelong, while Canberra boasts an enormous fly-in, fly-out population and lots of roundabouts.

Ben Buckley and the FFA, the sport's governing body in Australia and administers of the A-League, let the phenomenally successful second A-League season (2006-07) go to their collective bonces. The league attracted an average of nearly 13,000 fans per game that year, while collecting additional fuel from rivalries which solidified between the league's marquee clubs Melbourne Victory, Sydney FC and Adelaide United.

However, the Victory's remarkable crowd numbers masked the true situation. The now-defunct New Zealand Knights averaged a pitiful 3000 fans. More telling should have been that Melbourne's attendance comprised nearly 30% of the entire league gate. With renewed interest in roundball left over from the Socceroos' 2006 World Cup run and FFA decided to capitalise on soccer's newfound popularity and expand.

They couldn't have been more wrong.

Since that year, four new teams have been created. Half of those have failed and now lie in ruin. A third, the Melbourne Heart is haemorrhaging cash, while the fourth, the Wellington Phoenix was born from the rubble of the Knights. With a population of slightly more than 22 million people The World Game's status as a distant fourth favourite football code, Australia simply can't support a national football competition which has more than ten teams. Thus, any expectation of healthy crowds or shirt sales at every venue is optimism verging on insanity.

While it is understandable the FFA wanted to expand while the game was at it's antipodean zenith, the league was a success in 2006-07 as a result of those nine teams, not despite the shortage of numbers. The game is healthier now than before the A-League's commencement, but to expect public interest to grow from all-time highs – especially when the tail end of the Golden Generation returned to pasture at home after a magical tour of Germany – was fallacy of the highest order. The league should have consolidated, rather than chosen to grow at a remarkably ambitious rate (including next season's likley West Sydney franchise, growing by five clubs in five seasons).

The argument against expansion is easy and tired, yet sport administrators fail to learn. No matter what the sport, clubs in a national competition need one of two things to succeed (and preferably both) – grassroots support for the sport, or a large enough populace to support a “minority” sport. By expanding into Far North Queensland,

When the league embarked on this Mr. Creosote-style inflation, not expecting local talent to be poached by higher-paying leagues, thus thinning the ranks of top players, was naïve. Add to that the established fact that expansion dilutes the talent-pool and suddenly the A-League doesn't provide the product it once did. That the young talent isn't coming through is just as damning – the simple fact is we can't supply the league with enough money, support or home-grown talent.

Because of this, the A-League should remain an nine-team league for the foreseeable future. Even the quick-cloned Western Sydney would be fallacy.

Part of the problem seems to be the FFA's complete misunderstanding of how many people it takes to fuel a football club. A vast majority of Australians couldn't tell you the left-back for their local A-League club, which explains why the sport struggles for recognition as a serious national competition, especially at a local level. It's time for the A-League to accept, for the time being, their place in the Australian sporting landscape. Give the people what they want – quality football. Clive Palmer seems to have forgotten, but this isn't accomplished with teenagers and faded stars, but with well-coached professional athletes.

To quote The Rock, it's time for the A-League to shut their mouth and know their role. It is possible – foreseeable, even, given junior participation – that in the longest of terms, football overtakes Rugby Union and even cricket in the national consciousness. However, that is also unlikely, especially when the FFA damages the A-League brand with repeated failed franchises.

Why the Melbourne Victory looked overseas

When Mehmet Durakovic was fired last week as boss of the A-League’s Melbourne Victory, their coaching search immediately led them overseas to names like Roy Keane, Graeme Taylor and Iain Dowie. 

The Victory eventually ended up with Jim Magilton, the Northern Irish manager recently involved in Shamrock Rovers’ run to the Europa League and also a finalist for the Northern Ireland job vacated by Nigel Worthington. 

That the negotiations were swift only bided well for those who hoped Magilton would end up in blue and silver.  By acting swiftly, the Victory ensured a repeat of last offseason’s stuttering interview process wouldn’t occur.  It could be said that Durakovic got the job – as good as his lesser-league management had been – because he already occupied the caretaker’s seat.

Magilton is an appealing candidate, with his teams known for playing good football.  What makes him more appealing is that he’s not Australian, or wasn’t previously based in Australia.

With every A-League vacancy, the same names are put forward by media types as potential successors.  That list includes Jason’s Dad, Branko Cŭlina and former Socceroos and Brisbane Roar boss Frank Farina.  Had John Kosmina not gone back to old club Adelaide the week before, rest assured he too would have been included in the Victory’s coaching search.  This is in part due to a relatively uninformed public, where many passing sports fans recognise only the larger names in the sport.  It’s also due to a natural lack of talented, credentialed local managers.

Of the 31 coaching appointments in the A-League’s seven years, twenty-five coaches have been employed.  Of those coaches, seven have been re-treads – Cŭlina (twice), Kosmina (twice), Gary Van Egmond, Ian Ferguson, Miron Bleiberg.  18 had already been “in the system”, involved in the A-League or FFA.  Paying release fees for coaches in this league is nearly unheard of, so current A-League managers can be ruled out.

There is a dearth of available high-level coaches available to succeed the current middle-aged monopoly.

Damningly, the average number of A-League games for each manager has been in charge is quite low – a little under two seasons, at 59 games.   When the pool of available coaching talent is observably low, the Australian football hierarchy must be concerned that managers now must be brought in from overseas as local boys haven’t been able to make good (or at least, not good enough for their bosses).

For the Victory, a foreign hire had to be made, because the available high-level coaches haven’t cut the mustard at A-League level.  That 59-game figure above is made more understandable by the following table, which shows the records of “local” coaches with A-League coaching experience but not currently coaching upper echelon football.

Coach	Games	Win	Loss	Draw	Win %
Branko Cŭlina	66	21	30	15	31.81
Ron Smith	33	5	16	12	15.15
Lawrie McKinna	138	50	49	39	36.23
David Mitchell	67	24	29	14	35.82
Mehmet Durakovic	14	3	6	5	21.43
John Adshead	21	1	17	3	4.76
Rini Coolen	42	16	15	11	38.10

A cringeworthy bunch, no?  It’s hardly like Adshead would be considered given his retirement from coaching the New Zealand Knights after a spectacularly unsuccessful inaugural A-League season.  Of the bunch, only Mitchell and McKinna boast finals appearances; while McKinna is the only man to lead his team into the Asian Champions League. 

With international management often being the reward for a prosperous club career, could we look at an A-League manager who’s taken up a position for a national setup?  Ernie Merrick recently took up a position to coach Hong Kong’s national side, while Frank Farina is involved at a high level in football in Papua New Guinea.  Although it is undoubtedly too early for Merrick to return to the Victory, both he and Farina boast considerably better records than those above.  Aurelio Vidmar, now of the Olyroos and assistant to Holger Osieck at the Socceroos is another name worth considering.

Coach	Games	Win	Loss	Draw	Win %
Ernie Merrick	141	64	34	43	45.39
Aurelio Vidmar	107	42	42	23	39.25
Frank Farina	72	29	23	20	40.28

This list includes the A-League’s most successful coach and the Australian coach who took his Reds to the Asian Champions’ League Final against much more well-financed competition.  Each win/loss record is impressive, given their competition above, but hardly awe-inspiring.

There simply isn’t enough top-level coaching and managing talent in Australia to warrant promoting an up-and-comer.  By going initially with an almost-impeccably credentialed top-flight rookie in Durakovic, the Victory flamed out.  Their only choice was to look to the British Isles and those names on their shortlist before the season.  Even then, looking abroad has it’s own concerns.

The A-League needs to look abroad for coaches, because we certainly don’t have the amount of quality coaches needed to ensure a growth of the home-front top tier.

Victory sack Durakovic - let the merry-go-round commence!

Mehmet Durakovic has been fired as manager of A-League side Melbourne Victory, with the club enduring its worst ever start to a season. The team, who splashed out - big time - for Harry Kewell during the offseason, languish in eighth position in the ten-team competition, with only perpetual strugglers Perth and Gold Coast sitting below them.

Durakovic was never likely to have a lengthy career at one of the league's most successful and high-profile clubs. Although his resume boasts numerous Socceroo appearances and stints in charge of the Victorian Institute of Sport and the Victory's youth setup, he simply didn't have the profile - or personality - to be successful at a club like the Victory. While technically adept, he couldn't command the team's attention or respect like former coach Ernie Merrick.

Image courtesy: heraldsun.com.au

The usual suspects are likely to be trotted out as candidates for the job. Branko Culina, recently fired from Newcastle, and former Brisbane Roar boss Frank Farina are the chief names associated with the position now, but that's because they're suspects for every single available A-League job. "Bigger" names like Roy Keane, Iain Dowie and Graham Taylor have also been rumoured to be in the running again, but the Victory's tailing finances probably make the first two long-shots at best.

Graeme "My coach is my friend" Arnold and Ange Postecoglu are probably the best coaches in Australia, but are unlikely to be available for - or want - the position. There will be a groundswell behind local boy and former captain Kevin Muscat - who, although put in temporary charge of the club, is said not to be a candidate. In many ways it's a pity that John Kosmina was recently re-employed by Adelaide: although his arrival would have infuriated Melbourne supporters - and later, the Victory board, given his propensity for rubbing owners the wrong way - he is a talented coach who gets results from unbalanced squads.

The best man for the job could well be Aurelio Vidmar, the former Adelaide coach now assisting Holger Osieck at the Socceroos. Whether he would be interested in taking over former rivals Victory would be questionable, but given Melbourne are likely to appoint a caretaker manager he could be swayed by the end of the season.

Harry Kewell the answer to A-League's Marquee question?

The Hyundai A-League - and by extension, the Football Federation of Australia - reels from one crisis to another. If it's not declining crowd numbers, owners threatening to close stands rather than see empty seats, franchises folding, disastrous World Cup bids (corruption or not) or even stars entering fan forums, then it's clubs failing to take advantage of the league's generous marquee player policy.

Of course most of these problems can be traced back to one thing - A-League clubs are struggling to make ends meet. Football ranks a clear fourth on the Australian football consciousness behind Australian Rules, Rugby League and Rugby Union. Therefore the sport tends to pick up hard core fans, bandwagon supporters leftover from World Cups and the occasional family based around a growing number of Soccer Mums. This is to be expected however, having remained unchanged for five yeras - and the sport, though not making quantum leaps in popularity, forms a much greater part in the nation's sporting psyche.

The A-League now allows each club three marquee players, ostensibly top-end guys whose wages are not counted towards a team's salary cap: an International Marquee player, a Marquee Australian and a Marquee Youth player. These rules exist in theory to both lure top end talent and protect young assets. While this is a generous format, the FFA (who administer the A-League) does not contribute to the players' salaries, the result of this being A-League clubs draw five to ten-thousand fans per match are forced to pay players like Sergio Van Dijk, Robbie Fowler and his Perth Glory replacement Liam Miller serious dollars.

In business, organisations almost always must spend money to make it. It's the way the world works - wise investment brings about fiscal rewards and peace of mind. It was thus when Dwight Yorke signed for Sydney FC for the A-League's first campaign - he signed for the lifestyle, found the football to his liking, led Sydney to the A-League title and secured a move back to the English Premier League with Sunderland. It was coincidence that he (along with the Victory's Archie Thompson) was the first big name to join, but he is now the A-League's definitive Marquee Player and the benchmark - for better or worse - by which all subsequent imports are judged.

Yorke's situation was the perfect combination of circumstance: famously involved in a big club (Manchester United), with a sparkling, eloquent public profile and due to Trinidad & Tobago's 2006 World Cup campaign, still with reasons to perform other than personal pride. That Manchester United connection created a 10% increase in crowds across the league - Yorke was a man the crowds came to watch. Subsequent marquee signings like Robbie Fowler haven't had the same impact either on the pitch or as a league ambassador.

Approaching the A-League's seventh season, the ten clubs employ a grand total of Three Junior Marquee players, four Australian Marquee players and two (!) international "stars" - New Zealand striker Shane Smeltz and former Dutch U21 International Van Dijk. The Australian Marquee players are Archie Thompson, Mile Sterjovski, Nicky Carle and Jason Culina. Culina perhaps aside, it's difficult - impossible, even - to see any of those six transferring to a high-level club abroad.

The marquee player must in future be modeled on Dwight Yorke. He shouldn't be the only prototype as South Americans also could well check the requisite boxes, but it must be remembered antipodean crowds have a far greater knowledge of European football than the Samba style (no, not Christopher). Not only must such a player sparkle on the pitch, but he must be able to provide a lift to the league in the media.

Some players linked to out-of-cap positions - like Harry Kewell - could perform those functions; others however, most notably Serb striker Mateja Kežman, are a risky proposition. Melbourne in particular has a large Slavic population and could provide a slight bump in local crowds but club executives must ask themselves if a player such as serial-mover Kežman could warrant such spendthrift expenditure - does his one season at Chelsea, four at PSV and cups of coffee at Fenerbahce, PSG and Atletico really provide the league-wide PR lift the A-League so desperately needs? While his age and skills could well justify the salary slot he'd take up, would his name inspire the Rugby League fan to join? Or the AFL nut?

Australian soccer consciousness, so far increased since the magical 2006 World Cup, is still really in its infancy. It is so far behind that, for better or worse, it takes big names, not just quality footballers, to get the alert sporting landscape to attend. And with the local clubs haemmorhaging money, is it in fact prudent to spend $40,000AUD a week on a player not a "sure thing"?

The FFA must step in and contribute. Perhaps it could facilitate local teams signing the fading superstars of the game, if only on one-season deals. Though the game's governing body is skint from a highly unsuccessful World Cup hosting bid, contributing a small percentage of an international marquee player's salary to each team strictly for that purpose could be an option.

While Australian "marquee" players aid the competition, the league now understands it is names who will grow the sport. Of Australians, only Kewell could fit that bill. It takes money to make money and as abhorrent as spending more money sounds to leaky propositions such as Central Coast and the Gold Coast, prudent investment may be the best way forward.

Would Roberto Carlos, Alessandro Del Piero, Shunsuke Nakamura or even Theofanis Gekas be interested in a final payday? Even though Clarence Seedorf and Florent Malouda have suggested a desire to play in Brazil, both have the requisite stature and ability for them to be attractive targets for Aussie clubs. Perhaps with all six the answer would be negative, but certainly they would be players of whom League chiefs should be aware.

The A-League is a good league. By inspiring the masses - and cashing in on their attendance - it can become very good.

Roy Keane for Victory

After firing the most successful manager in A-League history, Ernie Merrick, the Melbourne Victory are in need of a new manager to strategize their Asian Champions' League cause and begin the inevitable rebuilding. The biggest name linked with the job is Roy Keane, late of Sunderland and Ipswich Town.

Local candidates are few: the A-League tends to opt either for recycled coaches or big-name import signings, so unless Melbourne opt to employ a retread, likely their arch-nemesis John Kosmina, their next boss is likely to come from overseas. The list of retread managers reads as long as Kevin Muscat's rap-sheet: Branko Culina (famous mostly for being Jason's dad), Miron Bleiberg, Kosmina and Graeme Arnold. Furthermore, both current and former Roar bosses (Ange Postecoglu and Frank Farina) are made up of old tin cans to resemble old NSL managers.

This points to an obvious leadership vacuum in the top tier of Australian domestic football. Within the past five years, only Aurelio Vidmar has successfully transitioned from player to top-flight coach. A few of the former Adelaide boss's compatriots - Muscat and our former centre-back Tonys (Vidmar and Popovic) most notably - have dabbled in management, becoming the next generation as they were members of the Golden Generation. The absence of young managerial talent means the league relies on imports.

So-called glamour team Sydney FC has opted most often for imports: first Pierre Littbarski, then England hero Terry Butcher. After Butcher, they went the recycled route with Culina and Kosmina before searching overseas for current coach Czech Vitezslav Lavicka, who brought the A-League Championship back to Sydney in 2010.

After a torrid campaign which will see the retirement of Muscat and Merrick losing his "walks on water" status, the Victory appear close to signing Roy Keane to lead them for season 2011-12. It would be a relative coup, given the stature of the club and the massive reputation Keane brings with him and as such would provide a massive publicity boost for the nascent competition. Apparently - unsurprisingly - Keane's reported $1 million per year wage demands are proving a stumbling block but he hasn't dismissed a move which could revitalise his management career, currently stalled after walking out on Sunderland and departing Ipswich Town.

It certainly seems like a good match - a high-profile coach needing to rebuild his reputation, willing to do so out of the spotlight in Australia for a couple of years and bringing a blend of toughness and experience no-one in Australia can match. After he departs, the Victory could then hand the reins over to manager-in-waiting Muscat. It's also a big gamble by both coach and club.

An intense - perhaps even bordering on sociopathic - character, Keane has two great strengths - his experience and reputation. His experience should allow him to gleam both tactically and as a teacher without spending large sums of money. During his initial stint in management, he transformed Sunderland, languishing at the bottom of the Championship, into runaway competition winners within six months without any expense. The Mackems then established themselves in the Premiership with a number of adept signings. His reputation should help attract better calibre players to the club and league: youngsters will flock to learn from him, older stars looking for one last pay cheque will see him legitimise the six-year old league.

He'll also be inspired to coach, given he's running out of managerial chances. It's not his last chance to be sure, but his stock has fallen enormously since touted as a possible Fergie replacement at United. If he is half the teacher and tactician he was as a field-general, he will be a success in Melbourne, and will be able to take a middling job in club management back in Europe within three years. Melbourne would land on their feet, as this would allow Muscat a chance to complete his coaching badges and cut his teeth in the front office before being thrown to the wolves.

There are plenty of downsides, too. The intensity that Keane is famous for worked against him on Wearside as players tired of his abrasive nature. He reportedly took steps to curb that side of his nature when in charge of Ipswich, but questions must be asked as to his ability to control both his temper and body language. The same passion which would demand exacting skill, tactical obedience and professionalism could also be used to intimidate players out of performing - in Australia, the most successful coaches tend to be those who follow the "Softly, Softly" approach.

Though apparently a more restrained character than during his time at United, it's almost never been a failing of the brain which has curtailed his career, but of his temper. If he had the stones to publicly question the standard of United trainees (current Red Devil stalwarts Darren Fletcher and John O'Shea the subject of his ire), he is likely to be supremely disappointed in Australia's youth, obviously of a standard far below any Carrington washout. It's becoming clear that what makes Roy Keane such a formidable competitor is also his greatest downfall.

Add to these factors his curious penchant for signing washouts - El Hadji Diouf, anyone? - which made his transfer record in England break-even at best. In Australia, transfer budgets are a fraction of what they are overseas, suggesting Keane will have to reinvent himself as a teacher, a boss who focuses on coaching and man-management rather than squad refreshment. This could be a real positive for the club and indeed for Keane himself. Like it or not, European bosses are graded on two factors - their deftness in the transfer market and their ability to get the most from their charges. If he can firmly prove his credentials as a man-manager, his stock will rise again.

Victory CEO Gary Cole must balance Roy's pros and cons very carefully before committing to the Irishman. As much as Keane is running out of legitimate management chances, it's not like he needs this to work - should the team fail with him in charge, he can discredit the A-League as a "bush-league" and walk away. For a man with his reputation, there will always be more chances, but as his magical 06-07 with Sunderland fades into the background, they are likely to be in locations more and more remote. Take for example Tony Adams, currently rippin' it up in Azerbaijan. The A-League would be happy with one season, the Victory with two.

Ultimately, should Keane and the Victory come to an arrangement which sees him lead the club, it must be taken with a grain of salt. Roy Keane is in this for one reason - the finance and time to overhaul his coaching image - and that's OK. That's no different to any other coaches. But his reputation comes at such a heavy financial cost that it must be labelled a gamble. Questions remain as to whether the A-League's financial climate is suited to such an expensive roll of the dice.

A-League's declining crowds need addressing

Though streets ahead of the factional National Soccer League, peacefully and thankfully euthanised in 2004 after a fraught reign as Australia's national football competition, failing supporter bases for the A-League means once again the FFA is faced with the challenge of enticing and maintaining supporter interest.

In the NSL days much of the public was alienated by violence and the overly patriotic fans boasted by each club. Clubs were divided very much along national lines: if you were of Greek parentage you supported South Melbourne Hellas. Even 1/16th Croatian heritage meant a Melbourne Knights fan. It's the way it was. Furthering the league's violent image were the stories told by old security guards of the old Olympic Park: the most galling I heard was punters making sure their flares got into the game by hiding in a stroller beneath a sleeping baby. The A-League's come a long way just by renouncing the nationalistic culture endemic and integral in the NSL's supersession.

Shortly after the Perth Glory's Nik Mrdja banged in the winner that snared the 2004 NSL Cup, the twenty-seven year competition ended mercifully and without complaint - as pros say about retirement, "it was just time". The football public was promised more: an eight-team league. Partisan, but friendly crowds. The sport would burgeon Down Under.

But NOOOOooooooOOOOO! (Channeling John Belushi). The A-League, encouraged by a smart and sustainable start decided on expansion. The initial eight teams though each had enough recognisable faces and interest sufficient enough to support a reasonable fan base. Spurred on by the Melbourne Victory's incredible second season - on which laurels some argue the Victorian club still rests - where 50,000 regularly appeared in their Docklands home base, the A-League included franchises from North Queensland and the Gold Coast. The struggling Auckland-based New Zealand Knights, horrible nickname and all, were reborn on the South Island as the Wellington Phoenix.

While Melbourne and Adelaide have continued with strong crowd number, other A-League clubs have struggled - see the chart below. Last year the Victory boasted average crowds above 18,000 , Adelaide United drew 11,000+ and the Melbourne Heart with nearly 9,000. At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Queensland franchises struggled; the appallingly-monikered North Queensland Fury's attendance barely reached 4,500 and Gold Coast FC appealed even less. The latter club's owner, mining magnate Clive Palmer, even caused controversy last year by locking out some Gold Coast fans rather than spend extra money opening other stands in their stadium. It's telling that in all of last season, the Melbourne Victory - with identifiable stars Kevin Muscat, Archie Thompson and Danny Allsopp - featured in eight of the ten highest-attended games. However they are not immune to the malaise which has engulfed football in Australia; their declining crowd numbers this year can be attributed to several factors, most notably the Melbourne Heart emergence as a second franchise for the city.

After last night's debacle, the FFA and A-League must acknowledge that change is needed for the A-League to retain its credibility. The 17-11-1 Brisbane Roar (sporting an awful mascot) defeated hapless North Queensland in front of only 1003 spectators. True, North Queensland has been devastated by a combination of natural disasters usually only seen in movies like 2012, but 1003 fans attending what is ostensibly a top-flight league is embarrassing and harmful for the A-League's future. It seems the Gold Coast fan base is to blame: they have also turned out record-low crowds on two other occasions this season. For a team playing such delicioius football as the Roar to draw such a pitiful crowd should finally close the book on the experimental expansion franchises North Queensland and the Gold Coast. They no longer deserve their teams.

The examples of league overinflation are obvious, patent and alarming. The NBA went from the ultimate in excitement to uninspired within a period of five years as undeserving cities received franchises: Vancouver, Memphis, Charlotte, Atlanta, Oklahoma City and New Orleans each have done enough to receive a team, but not enough to justify an owner spending money to create a winning team. The NHL is similarly afflicted: the Bettman Masterplan of expansion into the USA's southern reaches has been enough of a failure that several franchises are investigating selling their home games to cities who regularly sell in order to balance the books. By starting their Gold Coast and West Sydney franchises this year, the AFL should be heeding the FFA's mistakes even though their own brand is infinitely stronger.

It's time for the A-League to fold or relocate North Queensland. Unfortunately, there are limited options as to landing spots for the Fury - Auckland perhaps? The reality is that with North Queensland recovering from floods and the effects of Cyclone Yasi, football is likely to be the last of their priorities. The warning signs were there for the club after Robbie Fowler wasn't able to collect his paycheck and forced to move to Perth: now, as the Hornets did to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, it's time the Fury bid farewell to their home base and perhaps even to existence. That they don't have a major benefactor like Palmer, crowd numbers notwithstanding, is why they may be doomed.

The Gold Coast, funded by one of Australia's wealthiest men, is a different story. They should have the population base to fund a club yet have struggled for attendance since Palmer bought the rights and recruited stars Jason Culina and Shane Smeltz. It's embarrassing that such a vibrant area draws so poorly and both Palmer and the A-League must take their shares of the blame for their failure to thrive. The A-League needs a base in the Gold Coast as it's Australia's most rapidly growing "city", yet Palmer's reluctance to spend means task of growing football's identity in South Queensland becomes the responsibility of the FFA and the A-League.

When compared to other sporting codes in Australia, the A-League does poorly in almost every aspect. Only the Victory and Adelaide have crowds with average attendance over the lowliest Rugby League crowds, the next lowest draw in the Australian sporting hierarchy. FFA should aim for a leaguewide average of 10,000 fans which would ensure a healthy competition as well as room for growth. Before any expansion can be considered, clubs need to be certain that they themselves can survive.

Hope though can be drawn from the struggling Scottish Premier League. The SPL includes twelve teams, with only two ever having a chance at the title, Celtic and Rangers. The remaining ten clubs have voted overwhelmingly to reduce the number of teams in the top division from 12 to 10, meaning each team receives a greater percentage of the league's TV rights money. A ten team league nearly indistinguishable from the current setup where the only interest is who will be relegated. The mooted Scottish setup, no matter how broke the clubs are, proves an allegedly elite league can exist with only a few teams. With Australian sport looking more to American models than to European, it appears unlikely that the SPL model will be adopted.

There has never been a more crucial time for the A-League.

A glimpse of the future, courtesy of Kevin Muscat's horror tackle

In the initial rehearsals for the A-League Melbourne derby at the Docklands Stadium six days ago, everything was thrown akimbo by an ad-libbing Victory captain Kevin Muscat. The script read "Muscat tackles Zahra in his usual fashion", leaving all else to interpretation. On the night, Kevin Muscat read it in his own GBH-inducing style, while Melbourne Heart youngster Adrian Zahra played fall guy. Referee Chris Beath refrained from any further riffing and went by what was down on the page and finally yesterday the A-League went in a completely different but predictable direction.

The possible end of Kevin Muscat's playing career has been predictably overshadowed by the predictability of his manner of departure - a temper tantrum and a new career-best "Worst Ever Tackle". His 80th-minute challenge on Zahra, who has had season-ending knee surgery as a result, made Nigel de Jong's World Cup Final flykick of Xabi Alonso look like a walk-on massage offered by the most petite of Asian women. Regrettably for the A-League's most eloquent and approachable front-man it's not the only time he's lost control of his emotions; Kevin Muscat sports a file the size of the fight in the dog. He returned to Australia allegedly "The Most Hated man in Britain" after swinging his battleaxe pins into the likes of Craig Bellamy, Christophe Dugarry and Charlton Athletic player Matty Holmes. The last case resulted in a leg broken in four places from 1998 incident and Holmes successfully suing Muscat for damages.

Though he's had a solid career at home, in the UK and representing Australia, any sentence used to describe him must include the words "temperamental", "destructive" and "reckless". The largest consequence for Muscat now, aged 37 could be for his future in the sport. Since his return to the toddler A-League in 2005 he has often acted as a type of de facto league spokesman, a respected angry-grandfather figure and leader for the youth that the A-League was set up to develop. He could also distribute to that youth all he'd learned during a twenty-year pro career encompassing the old, strife-strewn, partisan NSL, England's Championship and Premiership and the SPL. When in 2006 Graeme Arnold was forced to choose a squad for an Asian Cup Qualifier solely comprised of A-League talent, there was no question who was to captain the side: Muscat, who led the team to a 2-0 victory away in Kuwait in the last of his fifty-one Socceroo caps. The public loved Muscy, especially in Melbourne and he parlayed this newfound acceptance into positions in punditry and journalism. It even seemed to mellow - slightly - the firebrand as, when he found himself in confrontation with Adelaide United gaffer John Kosmina it was the older Kosmina who was the aggressor and suspendee while the Victory skipper did nothing but smile at his rival's loss of control. Kevin Muscat, it was traditionally accepted, would succeed Ernie Merrick as the next manager of the Victory, providing just the right mix of insight, passion and tactical skills to interest new fans and sate the established masses.

As time wore on the Muscat public image, so flawed but polished, began to burnish as the form that made him famous in England became an issue for A-League supporters. The guy who disputed every anti-Melbourne or anti-Muscat refereeing decision with overwhelming disbelief that they could deign to make such calls against him; the man who instigated and began to brandish his battleaxe boots with more relish than in the league's earliest days. Perhaps as his waning legspeed vanished he was forced into inappropriate positions from which tackle but still felt he had to; maybe the Victory midfield wasn't providing the same cover for the centre-halves. Whatever the reasons though, over his six A-League years Muscat has retreated from the controlled challenges of his early return and again taken up hands with his demons - or more correctly demon, singular, which is overintensity. Not only was this most recent incident reprehensible, but his reaction more telling: a risible, laughable tirade at the referee for daring to show him a straight red. It was Muscat's second red card in succession.

Though deservedly and obviously penitent in public it's now time where Kevin Muscat must ask if he is really suited to a career in football after his playing days end. The talk of him being Crown Prince to the Victory's management has receded into white noise and given his inability or unwillingness to control a temper as short as the supporting cast of "Snow White" he should begin to query if he has the ability to do as all good managers and set a balanced tone for his team. It's the company head who defines a that's organisation's strategies and market tactics as well as, most importantly, its culture. In football management, the same principles apply and the manager dictates a playing group's mentality. The best example of this may be Jose Mourinho, who at all of his four managerial stops has convinced his players that they are a small group up against all the world can hurl at them. The question for Muscat is whether a man with obvious on-field self-control issues really enforce ideals in others that require even a modicum of discipline? If he remains ignorant of this quandary, perhaps we need look no further for an answer to Muscat's managerial suitability. And if he isn't asking himself these questions he can rest safely knowing both the Victory's owners, the A-League, the FFA and television executives all over Australia are.

Roy Keane, though patently much more talented, was a similar style of player. A "hard man" who seemed to love the title and sharing with Muscat both the ability to lead those around him, the knack of teaching and the same penchant for both on-field self-destruction twinn'd with career-ruining tackles. But his career in management has been spotty - early success with Sunderland, followed by a quick exit and a recent unfulfilling spell at Championship Ipswich. A notorious one for confrontation there were times during his Wearside reign where players admitted they were afraid of him and his fuse of questionable length. It's quite possible that if he remains unable to rein in his explosiveness, then Muscat may suffer the same fallibilities, no matter how talented a teacher and leader he is. The future of Kevin Muscat in the A-League both as a player and as a coach or commentator remains murky and very much under his control. It's not too late for Muscy to repair some of the damage done to his credentials but soon it will be.