The A-League: spread too thin

The furore surrounding Clive Palmer and Gold Coast United has cast more unwanted focus on soccer's position in the Australian sporting hierarchy. The club failing is bad enough, but for component on-field parts to auction themselves to prospective employers is like your soon-to-be ex auditioning potential replacements in front of your eyes.

Most galling of all is for this failure to occur in particularly high-growth area in the fastest-growing state in the nation. If football couldn't survive – demented patriarch or not – on the Gold Coast, there are few options left for A-League expansion. The league looks destined to stay in the same locations. And this may be for the best.

Realistically, there are only two more locations into which the A-League can try and expand naturally into a city with a population large enough to support the game. The league has already failed in both locations, Auckland and the Gold Coast. Despite it's size, Auckland also drags with it the baggage of New Zealand clubs playing in the domestic league of an Asian confederation member when the country competes in the Oceania confederation. Other possible expansion locations are also fraught with problems – the AFL's Cats countenance no rivals in Geelong, while Canberra boasts an enormous fly-in, fly-out population and lots of roundabouts.

Ben Buckley and the FFA, the sport's governing body in Australia and administers of the A-League, let the phenomenally successful second A-League season (2006-07) go to their collective bonces. The league attracted an average of nearly 13,000 fans per game that year, while collecting additional fuel from rivalries which solidified between the league's marquee clubs Melbourne Victory, Sydney FC and Adelaide United.

However, the Victory's remarkable crowd numbers masked the true situation. The now-defunct New Zealand Knights averaged a pitiful 3000 fans. More telling should have been that Melbourne's attendance comprised nearly 30% of the entire league gate. With renewed interest in roundball left over from the Socceroos' 2006 World Cup run and FFA decided to capitalise on soccer's newfound popularity and expand.

They couldn't have been more wrong.

Since that year, four new teams have been created. Half of those have failed and now lie in ruin. A third, the Melbourne Heart is haemorrhaging cash, while the fourth, the Wellington Phoenix was born from the rubble of the Knights. With a population of slightly more than 22 million people The World Game's status as a distant fourth favourite football code, Australia simply can't support a national football competition which has more than ten teams. Thus, any expectation of healthy crowds or shirt sales at every venue is optimism verging on insanity.

While it is understandable the FFA wanted to expand while the game was at it's antipodean zenith, the league was a success in 2006-07 as a result of those nine teams, not despite the shortage of numbers. The game is healthier now than before the A-League's commencement, but to expect public interest to grow from all-time highs – especially when the tail end of the Golden Generation returned to pasture at home after a magical tour of Germany – was fallacy of the highest order. The league should have consolidated, rather than chosen to grow at a remarkably ambitious rate (including next season's likley West Sydney franchise, growing by five clubs in five seasons).

The argument against expansion is easy and tired, yet sport administrators fail to learn. No matter what the sport, clubs in a national competition need one of two things to succeed (and preferably both) – grassroots support for the sport, or a large enough populace to support a “minority” sport. By expanding into Far North Queensland,

When the league embarked on this Mr. Creosote-style inflation, not expecting local talent to be poached by higher-paying leagues, thus thinning the ranks of top players, was naïve. Add to that the established fact that expansion dilutes the talent-pool and suddenly the A-League doesn't provide the product it once did. That the young talent isn't coming through is just as damning – the simple fact is we can't supply the league with enough money, support or home-grown talent.

Because of this, the A-League should remain an nine-team league for the foreseeable future. Even the quick-cloned Western Sydney would be fallacy.

Part of the problem seems to be the FFA's complete misunderstanding of how many people it takes to fuel a football club. A vast majority of Australians couldn't tell you the left-back for their local A-League club, which explains why the sport struggles for recognition as a serious national competition, especially at a local level. It's time for the A-League to accept, for the time being, their place in the Australian sporting landscape. Give the people what they want – quality football. Clive Palmer seems to have forgotten, but this isn't accomplished with teenagers and faded stars, but with well-coached professional athletes.

To quote The Rock, it's time for the A-League to shut their mouth and know their role. It is possible – foreseeable, even, given junior participation – that in the longest of terms, football overtakes Rugby Union and even cricket in the national consciousness. However, that is also unlikely, especially when the FFA damages the A-League brand with repeated failed franchises.

Roy Keane for Victory

After firing the most successful manager in A-League history, Ernie Merrick, the Melbourne Victory are in need of a new manager to strategize their Asian Champions' League cause and begin the inevitable rebuilding. The biggest name linked with the job is Roy Keane, late of Sunderland and Ipswich Town.

Local candidates are few: the A-League tends to opt either for recycled coaches or big-name import signings, so unless Melbourne opt to employ a retread, likely their arch-nemesis John Kosmina, their next boss is likely to come from overseas. The list of retread managers reads as long as Kevin Muscat's rap-sheet: Branko Culina (famous mostly for being Jason's dad), Miron Bleiberg, Kosmina and Graeme Arnold. Furthermore, both current and former Roar bosses (Ange Postecoglu and Frank Farina) are made up of old tin cans to resemble old NSL managers.

This points to an obvious leadership vacuum in the top tier of Australian domestic football. Within the past five years, only Aurelio Vidmar has successfully transitioned from player to top-flight coach. A few of the former Adelaide boss's compatriots - Muscat and our former centre-back Tonys (Vidmar and Popovic) most notably - have dabbled in management, becoming the next generation as they were members of the Golden Generation. The absence of young managerial talent means the league relies on imports.

So-called glamour team Sydney FC has opted most often for imports: first Pierre Littbarski, then England hero Terry Butcher. After Butcher, they went the recycled route with Culina and Kosmina before searching overseas for current coach Czech Vitezslav Lavicka, who brought the A-League Championship back to Sydney in 2010.

After a torrid campaign which will see the retirement of Muscat and Merrick losing his "walks on water" status, the Victory appear close to signing Roy Keane to lead them for season 2011-12. It would be a relative coup, given the stature of the club and the massive reputation Keane brings with him and as such would provide a massive publicity boost for the nascent competition. Apparently - unsurprisingly - Keane's reported $1 million per year wage demands are proving a stumbling block but he hasn't dismissed a move which could revitalise his management career, currently stalled after walking out on Sunderland and departing Ipswich Town.

It certainly seems like a good match - a high-profile coach needing to rebuild his reputation, willing to do so out of the spotlight in Australia for a couple of years and bringing a blend of toughness and experience no-one in Australia can match. After he departs, the Victory could then hand the reins over to manager-in-waiting Muscat. It's also a big gamble by both coach and club.

An intense - perhaps even bordering on sociopathic - character, Keane has two great strengths - his experience and reputation. His experience should allow him to gleam both tactically and as a teacher without spending large sums of money. During his initial stint in management, he transformed Sunderland, languishing at the bottom of the Championship, into runaway competition winners within six months without any expense. The Mackems then established themselves in the Premiership with a number of adept signings. His reputation should help attract better calibre players to the club and league: youngsters will flock to learn from him, older stars looking for one last pay cheque will see him legitimise the six-year old league.

He'll also be inspired to coach, given he's running out of managerial chances. It's not his last chance to be sure, but his stock has fallen enormously since touted as a possible Fergie replacement at United. If he is half the teacher and tactician he was as a field-general, he will be a success in Melbourne, and will be able to take a middling job in club management back in Europe within three years. Melbourne would land on their feet, as this would allow Muscat a chance to complete his coaching badges and cut his teeth in the front office before being thrown to the wolves.

There are plenty of downsides, too. The intensity that Keane is famous for worked against him on Wearside as players tired of his abrasive nature. He reportedly took steps to curb that side of his nature when in charge of Ipswich, but questions must be asked as to his ability to control both his temper and body language. The same passion which would demand exacting skill, tactical obedience and professionalism could also be used to intimidate players out of performing - in Australia, the most successful coaches tend to be those who follow the "Softly, Softly" approach.

Though apparently a more restrained character than during his time at United, it's almost never been a failing of the brain which has curtailed his career, but of his temper. If he had the stones to publicly question the standard of United trainees (current Red Devil stalwarts Darren Fletcher and John O'Shea the subject of his ire), he is likely to be supremely disappointed in Australia's youth, obviously of a standard far below any Carrington washout. It's becoming clear that what makes Roy Keane such a formidable competitor is also his greatest downfall.

Add to these factors his curious penchant for signing washouts - El Hadji Diouf, anyone? - which made his transfer record in England break-even at best. In Australia, transfer budgets are a fraction of what they are overseas, suggesting Keane will have to reinvent himself as a teacher, a boss who focuses on coaching and man-management rather than squad refreshment. This could be a real positive for the club and indeed for Keane himself. Like it or not, European bosses are graded on two factors - their deftness in the transfer market and their ability to get the most from their charges. If he can firmly prove his credentials as a man-manager, his stock will rise again.

Victory CEO Gary Cole must balance Roy's pros and cons very carefully before committing to the Irishman. As much as Keane is running out of legitimate management chances, it's not like he needs this to work - should the team fail with him in charge, he can discredit the A-League as a "bush-league" and walk away. For a man with his reputation, there will always be more chances, but as his magical 06-07 with Sunderland fades into the background, they are likely to be in locations more and more remote. Take for example Tony Adams, currently rippin' it up in Azerbaijan. The A-League would be happy with one season, the Victory with two.

Ultimately, should Keane and the Victory come to an arrangement which sees him lead the club, it must be taken with a grain of salt. Roy Keane is in this for one reason - the finance and time to overhaul his coaching image - and that's OK. That's no different to any other coaches. But his reputation comes at such a heavy financial cost that it must be labelled a gamble. Questions remain as to whether the A-League's financial climate is suited to such an expensive roll of the dice.

A-League's declining crowds need addressing

Though streets ahead of the factional National Soccer League, peacefully and thankfully euthanised in 2004 after a fraught reign as Australia's national football competition, failing supporter bases for the A-League means once again the FFA is faced with the challenge of enticing and maintaining supporter interest.

In the NSL days much of the public was alienated by violence and the overly patriotic fans boasted by each club. Clubs were divided very much along national lines: if you were of Greek parentage you supported South Melbourne Hellas. Even 1/16th Croatian heritage meant a Melbourne Knights fan. It's the way it was. Furthering the league's violent image were the stories told by old security guards of the old Olympic Park: the most galling I heard was punters making sure their flares got into the game by hiding in a stroller beneath a sleeping baby. The A-League's come a long way just by renouncing the nationalistic culture endemic and integral in the NSL's supersession.

Shortly after the Perth Glory's Nik Mrdja banged in the winner that snared the 2004 NSL Cup, the twenty-seven year competition ended mercifully and without complaint - as pros say about retirement, "it was just time". The football public was promised more: an eight-team league. Partisan, but friendly crowds. The sport would burgeon Down Under.

But NOOOOooooooOOOOO! (Channeling John Belushi). The A-League, encouraged by a smart and sustainable start decided on expansion. The initial eight teams though each had enough recognisable faces and interest sufficient enough to support a reasonable fan base. Spurred on by the Melbourne Victory's incredible second season - on which laurels some argue the Victorian club still rests - where 50,000 regularly appeared in their Docklands home base, the A-League included franchises from North Queensland and the Gold Coast. The struggling Auckland-based New Zealand Knights, horrible nickname and all, were reborn on the South Island as the Wellington Phoenix.

While Melbourne and Adelaide have continued with strong crowd number, other A-League clubs have struggled - see the chart below. Last year the Victory boasted average crowds above 18,000 , Adelaide United drew 11,000+ and the Melbourne Heart with nearly 9,000. At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Queensland franchises struggled; the appallingly-monikered North Queensland Fury's attendance barely reached 4,500 and Gold Coast FC appealed even less. The latter club's owner, mining magnate Clive Palmer, even caused controversy last year by locking out some Gold Coast fans rather than spend extra money opening other stands in their stadium. It's telling that in all of last season, the Melbourne Victory - with identifiable stars Kevin Muscat, Archie Thompson and Danny Allsopp - featured in eight of the ten highest-attended games. However they are not immune to the malaise which has engulfed football in Australia; their declining crowd numbers this year can be attributed to several factors, most notably the Melbourne Heart emergence as a second franchise for the city.

After last night's debacle, the FFA and A-League must acknowledge that change is needed for the A-League to retain its credibility. The 17-11-1 Brisbane Roar (sporting an awful mascot) defeated hapless North Queensland in front of only 1003 spectators. True, North Queensland has been devastated by a combination of natural disasters usually only seen in movies like 2012, but 1003 fans attending what is ostensibly a top-flight league is embarrassing and harmful for the A-League's future. It seems the Gold Coast fan base is to blame: they have also turned out record-low crowds on two other occasions this season. For a team playing such delicioius football as the Roar to draw such a pitiful crowd should finally close the book on the experimental expansion franchises North Queensland and the Gold Coast. They no longer deserve their teams.

The examples of league overinflation are obvious, patent and alarming. The NBA went from the ultimate in excitement to uninspired within a period of five years as undeserving cities received franchises: Vancouver, Memphis, Charlotte, Atlanta, Oklahoma City and New Orleans each have done enough to receive a team, but not enough to justify an owner spending money to create a winning team. The NHL is similarly afflicted: the Bettman Masterplan of expansion into the USA's southern reaches has been enough of a failure that several franchises are investigating selling their home games to cities who regularly sell in order to balance the books. By starting their Gold Coast and West Sydney franchises this year, the AFL should be heeding the FFA's mistakes even though their own brand is infinitely stronger.

It's time for the A-League to fold or relocate North Queensland. Unfortunately, there are limited options as to landing spots for the Fury - Auckland perhaps? The reality is that with North Queensland recovering from floods and the effects of Cyclone Yasi, football is likely to be the last of their priorities. The warning signs were there for the club after Robbie Fowler wasn't able to collect his paycheck and forced to move to Perth: now, as the Hornets did to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, it's time the Fury bid farewell to their home base and perhaps even to existence. That they don't have a major benefactor like Palmer, crowd numbers notwithstanding, is why they may be doomed.

The Gold Coast, funded by one of Australia's wealthiest men, is a different story. They should have the population base to fund a club yet have struggled for attendance since Palmer bought the rights and recruited stars Jason Culina and Shane Smeltz. It's embarrassing that such a vibrant area draws so poorly and both Palmer and the A-League must take their shares of the blame for their failure to thrive. The A-League needs a base in the Gold Coast as it's Australia's most rapidly growing "city", yet Palmer's reluctance to spend means task of growing football's identity in South Queensland becomes the responsibility of the FFA and the A-League.

When compared to other sporting codes in Australia, the A-League does poorly in almost every aspect. Only the Victory and Adelaide have crowds with average attendance over the lowliest Rugby League crowds, the next lowest draw in the Australian sporting hierarchy. FFA should aim for a leaguewide average of 10,000 fans which would ensure a healthy competition as well as room for growth. Before any expansion can be considered, clubs need to be certain that they themselves can survive.

Hope though can be drawn from the struggling Scottish Premier League. The SPL includes twelve teams, with only two ever having a chance at the title, Celtic and Rangers. The remaining ten clubs have voted overwhelmingly to reduce the number of teams in the top division from 12 to 10, meaning each team receives a greater percentage of the league's TV rights money. A ten team league nearly indistinguishable from the current setup where the only interest is who will be relegated. The mooted Scottish setup, no matter how broke the clubs are, proves an allegedly elite league can exist with only a few teams. With Australian sport looking more to American models than to European, it appears unlikely that the SPL model will be adopted.

There has never been a more crucial time for the A-League.