Is the MLS spread too thin?

Just the right amount. Courtesy wikipedia.

Word out of Atlanta suggests that MLS may be expanding again, with the owner of the Atlanta Falcons being offered a franchise in the rapidly inflating league.

While expansion can be considered good news to the current clubs (a buy-in is likely to produce an immediate cash windfall for each team owner), the pace at which MLS is growing is perhaps slight cause for concern.

In the next four years, the league seems set to increase its membership by at least four, with teams in New York City, Orlando, Miami and now Atlanta ready to join. This next raft of newcomers joins the recent growth into markets as varied in success as Philadelphia, Vancouver, Portland and Montreal.

With current MLS rosters set at 30, there are serious questions as to the ability of the United States and Canada to support an extra 21% growth within three years. Simply put – do the US elite ranks (that is: MLS, college, NASL and USPro leagues) have enough talent to put an extra 120 players into MLS without “watering down” the product that has begun to win so many local fans?

In the league’s past four expansions, the 110 players who comprised opening day rosters came from one of five main sources: 25% came from US minor leagues, 38% from MLS, 22% from International transfers, 11% from college and 4% made their way through their club’s academy.

That would suggest that a further 120 players would need to be pumped from similar sources. So far, 51 players have been “sent down” to the NASL/USPro leagues in 2014, while some notable players without MLS clubs will try to attract further notice in the NASL. The most notable of these is former Vancouver designated player Eric Hassli, who will play this season for the San Antonio Scorpions, while Freddy Adu remains in discussions with Eric Wynalda’s Atlanta Silverbacks.

However, gut feeling suggests that the step up may be too difficult for more than 15-20 of these elite minor leaguers. College ranks might be able to provide more than the above 11% - but enough to cover the shortfall? The simple answer is that there won’t be – at least temporarily. Without a great influx of foreign talent to maintain the requisite standards, the overall quality of the league simply must decrease.

The answer, at least in the long-term, comes from within. MLS academy products are now vastly improved in quality – see the likes of DeAndre Yedlin and Erik Palmer-Brown. Their emergence makes it now imperative that these academies become the future of MLS, just as in their brother leagues abroad. If MLS is to continue expanding both its geographic and power bases, then replenishment must come from the league’s own resources.

Beckham and Miami a perfect fit

News filtered through this week that David Beckham has selected Miami as his venue of choice for a new MLS franchise. The as-yet-unnamed team seems set to become the third visible expansion team after the Manchester City and New York Yankees’ joint venture, New York City FC and the record-setting Iron Lions of Orlando.

Really, selecting Miami was a no-brainer. The appeal of the city to athletes is notorious, and although one MLS franchise has already failed in South Florida, the times have changed in MLS such that Beckham and his co-investors are making this decision based on expected strong crowd support. While this hasn’t always been the case in South Florida – especially during particularly unsuccessful sporting summers – the city is a major market with a passionate soccer fan base.

(c) Author's own collection

Scanning the list of major US and Canadian cities without MLS franchises, Miami is the most populated unrepresented city and has been targeted by the league as a possible location for some time. Other options it was believed Beckham was looking at were San Diego, Orlando and … wait for it … Montreal.  

Commissioner Don Garber is on record plugging the merits of a twenty-four team league with a presence in Florida, Atlanta (please let this potential franchise keep their NASL nickname, The Silverbacks) and another SoCal team. That he has now leveraged three global brands into associations with MLS means smaller, more … optimistic parties should begin doubting their immediate chances.

As the business plans for each nascent franchise gain clarity, so does the picture of MLS’s mid-term future. Fittingly, David Beckham is front and center for this new era.

MLS and Manchester City a good match

With MLS seeking again to swell its ranks, the discussion has seemingly moved from where the next franchise will be located – New York City – and onto whom is best positioned to own and run such an enterprise. 

It has emerged that Manchester City’s flush-with owners are interested in soldering together this prometheus, appropriately based in the borough of Flushing.  The new team would serve twin purposes of generating talent for its parent club and increasing City’s brand recognition in the ever-expanding US market.

City’s expansion into the US market seems to have been received positively by fans of MLS as well as Don Garber, as well it should.  The league was recently judged the seventh-most attended on the planet, as has begun regularly producing players of true quality and an open gateway to Europe could provide more exposure in a nation where football highlights rarely make Sportscenter.

Close ties between are commonplace within countries, or continents even - Manchester United have had a longstanding relationship with Belgian club Royal Antwerp.  More recently – and perhaps more similarly as well – the Pozzo family has expanded from their black-and-white binding fiefdoms at Udinese to annex clubs in Spain and England, using them to develop players that they can then either use or sell, usually with a significant sticker price increase.

Any concerns MLS fans have about being home to “feeder” clubs can be assuaged by investigating the benefits of and exposure that having Sheikh Mansour involved in American sport would deliver.

Setting up an expansion franchise, youth academy and building a stadium in the real-estate mire of NYC will cost a bucketful.  Such hard costs coupled with the expense of bringing in players might intimidate a new ownership group and delay fan aggregation – we all love a winner.  Not only would the New York Blues have the opportunity to raid the Sky Blues for loan players, but also the backing to deliver some of the country’s most promising young talent.  They have more money to spend at chiseling out market share than could possibly be needed, no small feat in the City that Never Sleeps.

And perhaps the greatest benefit of all might come from the increased visibility.  The popularity of the English game transcends that of all other major leagues (with the exception of two notable Spanish clubs) and the Citizens’ five-year spending spree has ensured their position at that league’s apex until their patriarch suffers from a case of terminal boredom. 

Links with a league as outgoing as the English Premiership should be actively encouraged.

It is a fundamental truth of business that if a superwealthy investor shows interest in your product, you’re doing something very right or very wrong.  Another reality is that you generally look to involve these multi-multi-multi-billionaires wherever possible, as long as it doesn’t put you out too much – having capital in the bank never hurts.  The continued growth of MLS suggests that Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al Nahyan’s interest isn’t hostile; if the feelers he is putting out are genuine, rest assured that Garber et al will move heaven and earth to make him a part of the league.

The A-League: spread too thin

The furore surrounding Clive Palmer and Gold Coast United has cast more unwanted focus on soccer's position in the Australian sporting hierarchy. The club failing is bad enough, but for component on-field parts to auction themselves to prospective employers is like your soon-to-be ex auditioning potential replacements in front of your eyes.

Most galling of all is for this failure to occur in particularly high-growth area in the fastest-growing state in the nation. If football couldn't survive – demented patriarch or not – on the Gold Coast, there are few options left for A-League expansion. The league looks destined to stay in the same locations. And this may be for the best.

Realistically, there are only two more locations into which the A-League can try and expand naturally into a city with a population large enough to support the game. The league has already failed in both locations, Auckland and the Gold Coast. Despite it's size, Auckland also drags with it the baggage of New Zealand clubs playing in the domestic league of an Asian confederation member when the country competes in the Oceania confederation. Other possible expansion locations are also fraught with problems – the AFL's Cats countenance no rivals in Geelong, while Canberra boasts an enormous fly-in, fly-out population and lots of roundabouts.

Ben Buckley and the FFA, the sport's governing body in Australia and administers of the A-League, let the phenomenally successful second A-League season (2006-07) go to their collective bonces. The league attracted an average of nearly 13,000 fans per game that year, while collecting additional fuel from rivalries which solidified between the league's marquee clubs Melbourne Victory, Sydney FC and Adelaide United.

However, the Victory's remarkable crowd numbers masked the true situation. The now-defunct New Zealand Knights averaged a pitiful 3000 fans. More telling should have been that Melbourne's attendance comprised nearly 30% of the entire league gate. With renewed interest in roundball left over from the Socceroos' 2006 World Cup run and FFA decided to capitalise on soccer's newfound popularity and expand.

They couldn't have been more wrong.

Since that year, four new teams have been created. Half of those have failed and now lie in ruin. A third, the Melbourne Heart is haemorrhaging cash, while the fourth, the Wellington Phoenix was born from the rubble of the Knights. With a population of slightly more than 22 million people The World Game's status as a distant fourth favourite football code, Australia simply can't support a national football competition which has more than ten teams. Thus, any expectation of healthy crowds or shirt sales at every venue is optimism verging on insanity.

While it is understandable the FFA wanted to expand while the game was at it's antipodean zenith, the league was a success in 2006-07 as a result of those nine teams, not despite the shortage of numbers. The game is healthier now than before the A-League's commencement, but to expect public interest to grow from all-time highs – especially when the tail end of the Golden Generation returned to pasture at home after a magical tour of Germany – was fallacy of the highest order. The league should have consolidated, rather than chosen to grow at a remarkably ambitious rate (including next season's likley West Sydney franchise, growing by five clubs in five seasons).

The argument against expansion is easy and tired, yet sport administrators fail to learn. No matter what the sport, clubs in a national competition need one of two things to succeed (and preferably both) – grassroots support for the sport, or a large enough populace to support a “minority” sport. By expanding into Far North Queensland,

When the league embarked on this Mr. Creosote-style inflation, not expecting local talent to be poached by higher-paying leagues, thus thinning the ranks of top players, was naïve. Add to that the established fact that expansion dilutes the talent-pool and suddenly the A-League doesn't provide the product it once did. That the young talent isn't coming through is just as damning – the simple fact is we can't supply the league with enough money, support or home-grown talent.

Because of this, the A-League should remain an nine-team league for the foreseeable future. Even the quick-cloned Western Sydney would be fallacy.

Part of the problem seems to be the FFA's complete misunderstanding of how many people it takes to fuel a football club. A vast majority of Australians couldn't tell you the left-back for their local A-League club, which explains why the sport struggles for recognition as a serious national competition, especially at a local level. It's time for the A-League to accept, for the time being, their place in the Australian sporting landscape. Give the people what they want – quality football. Clive Palmer seems to have forgotten, but this isn't accomplished with teenagers and faded stars, but with well-coached professional athletes.

To quote The Rock, it's time for the A-League to shut their mouth and know their role. It is possible – foreseeable, even, given junior participation – that in the longest of terms, football overtakes Rugby Union and even cricket in the national consciousness. However, that is also unlikely, especially when the FFA damages the A-League brand with repeated failed franchises.

MLS welcomes the Impact; Montreal unlikely to host Ching

Obviously it's hard to predict how a club will perform throughout their first season of Major League Soccer - there are simply too many variables to make prophecy a worthy exercise. Today though, we begin to take stock of exactly what Montreal can expect to achieve given the players they selected in the MLS Expansion draft.

The Impact selected some quality players for their own use, some for leverage purposes and others simply to on-trade. It was puzzling that they left good (and cheap) prospects like Mike Fucito alone. They, like the Whitecaps last year and Philadelphia before that, chose to ignore some high profile (read: expensive) guys like Freddy Adu and Jonathon de Guzman, preferring to focus on supplementing their NASL quality with legitimate CONCACAF talent.

Public and pundit response has been mostly positive - especially given the calibre of player left unprotected by the established eighteen MLS franchises. Reaction has been fair, with the selection of former US men's national team forward Ching by far the most debated business item. As the draft was structured, the Impact simply had to select the Houston forward regardless of his threats to retire. Doing so put the Impact - and coach Jesse Marsch - in a bargaining position where they hold all the cards.

The purpose of Expansion Drafts is not to provide the bulk of a team's roster for the future. Were a club coach to take that approach, the club becomes mired in youthful mistakes and that coach is fired. The best strategy to take is to focus on acquiring serviceable starters without stretching for salary or the future.

It is rare that expansion draftees last for the long-term at a club: three of the Sounders taken in 2008 now remain in Seattle. Two initial Union draftees still reside in Philadelphia only two seasons into that club's MLS existence. Of last year's Expansionistas, three sapling Timbers are still in Portland while the Whitecaps finished with five of their initial ten.

courtesy: yanksarecoming.com

Whoever sticks - perhaps Sanna Nyassi, Justin Mapp or Zarek Valentin - can be joined by Impact players who've competed well in Gold Cups and attempt the step up. The new boys have high hopes for new signings like Nelson Rivas and Evan Bush. Perhaps Marco Materazzi, Luca Toni or SuperPippo Inzaghi could bowl up in Little Italy as well.

It's not the place of Expansion Drafts to provide the basis for future success, only for stability and to give the incoming club some assets that aren't initially super out-of-pocket expenses. In following this principal, the Impact came out winners from today's draft.

A-League's declining crowds need addressing

Though streets ahead of the factional National Soccer League, peacefully and thankfully euthanised in 2004 after a fraught reign as Australia's national football competition, failing supporter bases for the A-League means once again the FFA is faced with the challenge of enticing and maintaining supporter interest.

In the NSL days much of the public was alienated by violence and the overly patriotic fans boasted by each club. Clubs were divided very much along national lines: if you were of Greek parentage you supported South Melbourne Hellas. Even 1/16th Croatian heritage meant a Melbourne Knights fan. It's the way it was. Furthering the league's violent image were the stories told by old security guards of the old Olympic Park: the most galling I heard was punters making sure their flares got into the game by hiding in a stroller beneath a sleeping baby. The A-League's come a long way just by renouncing the nationalistic culture endemic and integral in the NSL's supersession.

Shortly after the Perth Glory's Nik Mrdja banged in the winner that snared the 2004 NSL Cup, the twenty-seven year competition ended mercifully and without complaint - as pros say about retirement, "it was just time". The football public was promised more: an eight-team league. Partisan, but friendly crowds. The sport would burgeon Down Under.

But NOOOOooooooOOOOO! (Channeling John Belushi). The A-League, encouraged by a smart and sustainable start decided on expansion. The initial eight teams though each had enough recognisable faces and interest sufficient enough to support a reasonable fan base. Spurred on by the Melbourne Victory's incredible second season - on which laurels some argue the Victorian club still rests - where 50,000 regularly appeared in their Docklands home base, the A-League included franchises from North Queensland and the Gold Coast. The struggling Auckland-based New Zealand Knights, horrible nickname and all, were reborn on the South Island as the Wellington Phoenix.

While Melbourne and Adelaide have continued with strong crowd number, other A-League clubs have struggled - see the chart below. Last year the Victory boasted average crowds above 18,000 , Adelaide United drew 11,000+ and the Melbourne Heart with nearly 9,000. At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Queensland franchises struggled; the appallingly-monikered North Queensland Fury's attendance barely reached 4,500 and Gold Coast FC appealed even less. The latter club's owner, mining magnate Clive Palmer, even caused controversy last year by locking out some Gold Coast fans rather than spend extra money opening other stands in their stadium. It's telling that in all of last season, the Melbourne Victory - with identifiable stars Kevin Muscat, Archie Thompson and Danny Allsopp - featured in eight of the ten highest-attended games. However they are not immune to the malaise which has engulfed football in Australia; their declining crowd numbers this year can be attributed to several factors, most notably the Melbourne Heart emergence as a second franchise for the city.

After last night's debacle, the FFA and A-League must acknowledge that change is needed for the A-League to retain its credibility. The 17-11-1 Brisbane Roar (sporting an awful mascot) defeated hapless North Queensland in front of only 1003 spectators. True, North Queensland has been devastated by a combination of natural disasters usually only seen in movies like 2012, but 1003 fans attending what is ostensibly a top-flight league is embarrassing and harmful for the A-League's future. It seems the Gold Coast fan base is to blame: they have also turned out record-low crowds on two other occasions this season. For a team playing such delicioius football as the Roar to draw such a pitiful crowd should finally close the book on the experimental expansion franchises North Queensland and the Gold Coast. They no longer deserve their teams.

The examples of league overinflation are obvious, patent and alarming. The NBA went from the ultimate in excitement to uninspired within a period of five years as undeserving cities received franchises: Vancouver, Memphis, Charlotte, Atlanta, Oklahoma City and New Orleans each have done enough to receive a team, but not enough to justify an owner spending money to create a winning team. The NHL is similarly afflicted: the Bettman Masterplan of expansion into the USA's southern reaches has been enough of a failure that several franchises are investigating selling their home games to cities who regularly sell in order to balance the books. By starting their Gold Coast and West Sydney franchises this year, the AFL should be heeding the FFA's mistakes even though their own brand is infinitely stronger.

It's time for the A-League to fold or relocate North Queensland. Unfortunately, there are limited options as to landing spots for the Fury - Auckland perhaps? The reality is that with North Queensland recovering from floods and the effects of Cyclone Yasi, football is likely to be the last of their priorities. The warning signs were there for the club after Robbie Fowler wasn't able to collect his paycheck and forced to move to Perth: now, as the Hornets did to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, it's time the Fury bid farewell to their home base and perhaps even to existence. That they don't have a major benefactor like Palmer, crowd numbers notwithstanding, is why they may be doomed.

The Gold Coast, funded by one of Australia's wealthiest men, is a different story. They should have the population base to fund a club yet have struggled for attendance since Palmer bought the rights and recruited stars Jason Culina and Shane Smeltz. It's embarrassing that such a vibrant area draws so poorly and both Palmer and the A-League must take their shares of the blame for their failure to thrive. The A-League needs a base in the Gold Coast as it's Australia's most rapidly growing "city", yet Palmer's reluctance to spend means task of growing football's identity in South Queensland becomes the responsibility of the FFA and the A-League.

When compared to other sporting codes in Australia, the A-League does poorly in almost every aspect. Only the Victory and Adelaide have crowds with average attendance over the lowliest Rugby League crowds, the next lowest draw in the Australian sporting hierarchy. FFA should aim for a leaguewide average of 10,000 fans which would ensure a healthy competition as well as room for growth. Before any expansion can be considered, clubs need to be certain that they themselves can survive.

Hope though can be drawn from the struggling Scottish Premier League. The SPL includes twelve teams, with only two ever having a chance at the title, Celtic and Rangers. The remaining ten clubs have voted overwhelmingly to reduce the number of teams in the top division from 12 to 10, meaning each team receives a greater percentage of the league's TV rights money. A ten team league nearly indistinguishable from the current setup where the only interest is who will be relegated. The mooted Scottish setup, no matter how broke the clubs are, proves an allegedly elite league can exist with only a few teams. With Australian sport looking more to American models than to European, it appears unlikely that the SPL model will be adopted.

There has never been a more crucial time for the A-League.