The A-League: spread too thin

The furore surrounding Clive Palmer and Gold Coast United has cast more unwanted focus on soccer's position in the Australian sporting hierarchy. The club failing is bad enough, but for component on-field parts to auction themselves to prospective employers is like your soon-to-be ex auditioning potential replacements in front of your eyes.

Most galling of all is for this failure to occur in particularly high-growth area in the fastest-growing state in the nation. If football couldn't survive – demented patriarch or not – on the Gold Coast, there are few options left for A-League expansion. The league looks destined to stay in the same locations. And this may be for the best.

Realistically, there are only two more locations into which the A-League can try and expand naturally into a city with a population large enough to support the game. The league has already failed in both locations, Auckland and the Gold Coast. Despite it's size, Auckland also drags with it the baggage of New Zealand clubs playing in the domestic league of an Asian confederation member when the country competes in the Oceania confederation. Other possible expansion locations are also fraught with problems – the AFL's Cats countenance no rivals in Geelong, while Canberra boasts an enormous fly-in, fly-out population and lots of roundabouts.

Ben Buckley and the FFA, the sport's governing body in Australia and administers of the A-League, let the phenomenally successful second A-League season (2006-07) go to their collective bonces. The league attracted an average of nearly 13,000 fans per game that year, while collecting additional fuel from rivalries which solidified between the league's marquee clubs Melbourne Victory, Sydney FC and Adelaide United.

However, the Victory's remarkable crowd numbers masked the true situation. The now-defunct New Zealand Knights averaged a pitiful 3000 fans. More telling should have been that Melbourne's attendance comprised nearly 30% of the entire league gate. With renewed interest in roundball left over from the Socceroos' 2006 World Cup run and FFA decided to capitalise on soccer's newfound popularity and expand.

They couldn't have been more wrong.

Since that year, four new teams have been created. Half of those have failed and now lie in ruin. A third, the Melbourne Heart is haemorrhaging cash, while the fourth, the Wellington Phoenix was born from the rubble of the Knights. With a population of slightly more than 22 million people The World Game's status as a distant fourth favourite football code, Australia simply can't support a national football competition which has more than ten teams. Thus, any expectation of healthy crowds or shirt sales at every venue is optimism verging on insanity.

While it is understandable the FFA wanted to expand while the game was at it's antipodean zenith, the league was a success in 2006-07 as a result of those nine teams, not despite the shortage of numbers. The game is healthier now than before the A-League's commencement, but to expect public interest to grow from all-time highs – especially when the tail end of the Golden Generation returned to pasture at home after a magical tour of Germany – was fallacy of the highest order. The league should have consolidated, rather than chosen to grow at a remarkably ambitious rate (including next season's likley West Sydney franchise, growing by five clubs in five seasons).

The argument against expansion is easy and tired, yet sport administrators fail to learn. No matter what the sport, clubs in a national competition need one of two things to succeed (and preferably both) – grassroots support for the sport, or a large enough populace to support a “minority” sport. By expanding into Far North Queensland,

When the league embarked on this Mr. Creosote-style inflation, not expecting local talent to be poached by higher-paying leagues, thus thinning the ranks of top players, was naïve. Add to that the established fact that expansion dilutes the talent-pool and suddenly the A-League doesn't provide the product it once did. That the young talent isn't coming through is just as damning – the simple fact is we can't supply the league with enough money, support or home-grown talent.

Because of this, the A-League should remain an nine-team league for the foreseeable future. Even the quick-cloned Western Sydney would be fallacy.

Part of the problem seems to be the FFA's complete misunderstanding of how many people it takes to fuel a football club. A vast majority of Australians couldn't tell you the left-back for their local A-League club, which explains why the sport struggles for recognition as a serious national competition, especially at a local level. It's time for the A-League to accept, for the time being, their place in the Australian sporting landscape. Give the people what they want – quality football. Clive Palmer seems to have forgotten, but this isn't accomplished with teenagers and faded stars, but with well-coached professional athletes.

To quote The Rock, it's time for the A-League to shut their mouth and know their role. It is possible – foreseeable, even, given junior participation – that in the longest of terms, football overtakes Rugby Union and even cricket in the national consciousness. However, that is also unlikely, especially when the FFA damages the A-League brand with repeated failed franchises.

A-League's declining crowds need addressing

Though streets ahead of the factional National Soccer League, peacefully and thankfully euthanised in 2004 after a fraught reign as Australia's national football competition, failing supporter bases for the A-League means once again the FFA is faced with the challenge of enticing and maintaining supporter interest.

In the NSL days much of the public was alienated by violence and the overly patriotic fans boasted by each club. Clubs were divided very much along national lines: if you were of Greek parentage you supported South Melbourne Hellas. Even 1/16th Croatian heritage meant a Melbourne Knights fan. It's the way it was. Furthering the league's violent image were the stories told by old security guards of the old Olympic Park: the most galling I heard was punters making sure their flares got into the game by hiding in a stroller beneath a sleeping baby. The A-League's come a long way just by renouncing the nationalistic culture endemic and integral in the NSL's supersession.

Shortly after the Perth Glory's Nik Mrdja banged in the winner that snared the 2004 NSL Cup, the twenty-seven year competition ended mercifully and without complaint - as pros say about retirement, "it was just time". The football public was promised more: an eight-team league. Partisan, but friendly crowds. The sport would burgeon Down Under.

But NOOOOooooooOOOOO! (Channeling John Belushi). The A-League, encouraged by a smart and sustainable start decided on expansion. The initial eight teams though each had enough recognisable faces and interest sufficient enough to support a reasonable fan base. Spurred on by the Melbourne Victory's incredible second season - on which laurels some argue the Victorian club still rests - where 50,000 regularly appeared in their Docklands home base, the A-League included franchises from North Queensland and the Gold Coast. The struggling Auckland-based New Zealand Knights, horrible nickname and all, were reborn on the South Island as the Wellington Phoenix.

While Melbourne and Adelaide have continued with strong crowd number, other A-League clubs have struggled - see the chart below. Last year the Victory boasted average crowds above 18,000 , Adelaide United drew 11,000+ and the Melbourne Heart with nearly 9,000. At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Queensland franchises struggled; the appallingly-monikered North Queensland Fury's attendance barely reached 4,500 and Gold Coast FC appealed even less. The latter club's owner, mining magnate Clive Palmer, even caused controversy last year by locking out some Gold Coast fans rather than spend extra money opening other stands in their stadium. It's telling that in all of last season, the Melbourne Victory - with identifiable stars Kevin Muscat, Archie Thompson and Danny Allsopp - featured in eight of the ten highest-attended games. However they are not immune to the malaise which has engulfed football in Australia; their declining crowd numbers this year can be attributed to several factors, most notably the Melbourne Heart emergence as a second franchise for the city.

After last night's debacle, the FFA and A-League must acknowledge that change is needed for the A-League to retain its credibility. The 17-11-1 Brisbane Roar (sporting an awful mascot) defeated hapless North Queensland in front of only 1003 spectators. True, North Queensland has been devastated by a combination of natural disasters usually only seen in movies like 2012, but 1003 fans attending what is ostensibly a top-flight league is embarrassing and harmful for the A-League's future. It seems the Gold Coast fan base is to blame: they have also turned out record-low crowds on two other occasions this season. For a team playing such delicioius football as the Roar to draw such a pitiful crowd should finally close the book on the experimental expansion franchises North Queensland and the Gold Coast. They no longer deserve their teams.

The examples of league overinflation are obvious, patent and alarming. The NBA went from the ultimate in excitement to uninspired within a period of five years as undeserving cities received franchises: Vancouver, Memphis, Charlotte, Atlanta, Oklahoma City and New Orleans each have done enough to receive a team, but not enough to justify an owner spending money to create a winning team. The NHL is similarly afflicted: the Bettman Masterplan of expansion into the USA's southern reaches has been enough of a failure that several franchises are investigating selling their home games to cities who regularly sell in order to balance the books. By starting their Gold Coast and West Sydney franchises this year, the AFL should be heeding the FFA's mistakes even though their own brand is infinitely stronger.

It's time for the A-League to fold or relocate North Queensland. Unfortunately, there are limited options as to landing spots for the Fury - Auckland perhaps? The reality is that with North Queensland recovering from floods and the effects of Cyclone Yasi, football is likely to be the last of their priorities. The warning signs were there for the club after Robbie Fowler wasn't able to collect his paycheck and forced to move to Perth: now, as the Hornets did to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, it's time the Fury bid farewell to their home base and perhaps even to existence. That they don't have a major benefactor like Palmer, crowd numbers notwithstanding, is why they may be doomed.

The Gold Coast, funded by one of Australia's wealthiest men, is a different story. They should have the population base to fund a club yet have struggled for attendance since Palmer bought the rights and recruited stars Jason Culina and Shane Smeltz. It's embarrassing that such a vibrant area draws so poorly and both Palmer and the A-League must take their shares of the blame for their failure to thrive. The A-League needs a base in the Gold Coast as it's Australia's most rapidly growing "city", yet Palmer's reluctance to spend means task of growing football's identity in South Queensland becomes the responsibility of the FFA and the A-League.

When compared to other sporting codes in Australia, the A-League does poorly in almost every aspect. Only the Victory and Adelaide have crowds with average attendance over the lowliest Rugby League crowds, the next lowest draw in the Australian sporting hierarchy. FFA should aim for a leaguewide average of 10,000 fans which would ensure a healthy competition as well as room for growth. Before any expansion can be considered, clubs need to be certain that they themselves can survive.

Hope though can be drawn from the struggling Scottish Premier League. The SPL includes twelve teams, with only two ever having a chance at the title, Celtic and Rangers. The remaining ten clubs have voted overwhelmingly to reduce the number of teams in the top division from 12 to 10, meaning each team receives a greater percentage of the league's TV rights money. A ten team league nearly indistinguishable from the current setup where the only interest is who will be relegated. The mooted Scottish setup, no matter how broke the clubs are, proves an allegedly elite league can exist with only a few teams. With Australian sport looking more to American models than to European, it appears unlikely that the SPL model will be adopted.

There has never been a more crucial time for the A-League.

A glimpse of the future, courtesy of Kevin Muscat's horror tackle

In the initial rehearsals for the A-League Melbourne derby at the Docklands Stadium six days ago, everything was thrown akimbo by an ad-libbing Victory captain Kevin Muscat. The script read "Muscat tackles Zahra in his usual fashion", leaving all else to interpretation. On the night, Kevin Muscat read it in his own GBH-inducing style, while Melbourne Heart youngster Adrian Zahra played fall guy. Referee Chris Beath refrained from any further riffing and went by what was down on the page and finally yesterday the A-League went in a completely different but predictable direction.

The possible end of Kevin Muscat's playing career has been predictably overshadowed by the predictability of his manner of departure - a temper tantrum and a new career-best "Worst Ever Tackle". His 80th-minute challenge on Zahra, who has had season-ending knee surgery as a result, made Nigel de Jong's World Cup Final flykick of Xabi Alonso look like a walk-on massage offered by the most petite of Asian women. Regrettably for the A-League's most eloquent and approachable front-man it's not the only time he's lost control of his emotions; Kevin Muscat sports a file the size of the fight in the dog. He returned to Australia allegedly "The Most Hated man in Britain" after swinging his battleaxe pins into the likes of Craig Bellamy, Christophe Dugarry and Charlton Athletic player Matty Holmes. The last case resulted in a leg broken in four places from 1998 incident and Holmes successfully suing Muscat for damages.

Though he's had a solid career at home, in the UK and representing Australia, any sentence used to describe him must include the words "temperamental", "destructive" and "reckless". The largest consequence for Muscat now, aged 37 could be for his future in the sport. Since his return to the toddler A-League in 2005 he has often acted as a type of de facto league spokesman, a respected angry-grandfather figure and leader for the youth that the A-League was set up to develop. He could also distribute to that youth all he'd learned during a twenty-year pro career encompassing the old, strife-strewn, partisan NSL, England's Championship and Premiership and the SPL. When in 2006 Graeme Arnold was forced to choose a squad for an Asian Cup Qualifier solely comprised of A-League talent, there was no question who was to captain the side: Muscat, who led the team to a 2-0 victory away in Kuwait in the last of his fifty-one Socceroo caps. The public loved Muscy, especially in Melbourne and he parlayed this newfound acceptance into positions in punditry and journalism. It even seemed to mellow - slightly - the firebrand as, when he found himself in confrontation with Adelaide United gaffer John Kosmina it was the older Kosmina who was the aggressor and suspendee while the Victory skipper did nothing but smile at his rival's loss of control. Kevin Muscat, it was traditionally accepted, would succeed Ernie Merrick as the next manager of the Victory, providing just the right mix of insight, passion and tactical skills to interest new fans and sate the established masses.

As time wore on the Muscat public image, so flawed but polished, began to burnish as the form that made him famous in England became an issue for A-League supporters. The guy who disputed every anti-Melbourne or anti-Muscat refereeing decision with overwhelming disbelief that they could deign to make such calls against him; the man who instigated and began to brandish his battleaxe boots with more relish than in the league's earliest days. Perhaps as his waning legspeed vanished he was forced into inappropriate positions from which tackle but still felt he had to; maybe the Victory midfield wasn't providing the same cover for the centre-halves. Whatever the reasons though, over his six A-League years Muscat has retreated from the controlled challenges of his early return and again taken up hands with his demons - or more correctly demon, singular, which is overintensity. Not only was this most recent incident reprehensible, but his reaction more telling: a risible, laughable tirade at the referee for daring to show him a straight red. It was Muscat's second red card in succession.

Though deservedly and obviously penitent in public it's now time where Kevin Muscat must ask if he is really suited to a career in football after his playing days end. The talk of him being Crown Prince to the Victory's management has receded into white noise and given his inability or unwillingness to control a temper as short as the supporting cast of "Snow White" he should begin to query if he has the ability to do as all good managers and set a balanced tone for his team. It's the company head who defines a that's organisation's strategies and market tactics as well as, most importantly, its culture. In football management, the same principles apply and the manager dictates a playing group's mentality. The best example of this may be Jose Mourinho, who at all of his four managerial stops has convinced his players that they are a small group up against all the world can hurl at them. The question for Muscat is whether a man with obvious on-field self-control issues really enforce ideals in others that require even a modicum of discipline? If he remains ignorant of this quandary, perhaps we need look no further for an answer to Muscat's managerial suitability. And if he isn't asking himself these questions he can rest safely knowing both the Victory's owners, the A-League, the FFA and television executives all over Australia are.

Roy Keane, though patently much more talented, was a similar style of player. A "hard man" who seemed to love the title and sharing with Muscat both the ability to lead those around him, the knack of teaching and the same penchant for both on-field self-destruction twinn'd with career-ruining tackles. But his career in management has been spotty - early success with Sunderland, followed by a quick exit and a recent unfulfilling spell at Championship Ipswich. A notorious one for confrontation there were times during his Wearside reign where players admitted they were afraid of him and his fuse of questionable length. It's quite possible that if he remains unable to rein in his explosiveness, then Muscat may suffer the same fallibilities, no matter how talented a teacher and leader he is. The future of Kevin Muscat in the A-League both as a player and as a coach or commentator remains murky and very much under his control. It's not too late for Muscy to repair some of the damage done to his credentials but soon it will be.