Why the Melbourne Victory looked overseas

When Mehmet Durakovic was fired last week as boss of the A-League’s Melbourne Victory, their coaching search immediately led them overseas to names like Roy Keane, Graeme Taylor and Iain Dowie. 

The Victory eventually ended up with Jim Magilton, the Northern Irish manager recently involved in Shamrock Rovers’ run to the Europa League and also a finalist for the Northern Ireland job vacated by Nigel Worthington. 

That the negotiations were swift only bided well for those who hoped Magilton would end up in blue and silver.  By acting swiftly, the Victory ensured a repeat of last offseason’s stuttering interview process wouldn’t occur.  It could be said that Durakovic got the job – as good as his lesser-league management had been – because he already occupied the caretaker’s seat.

Magilton is an appealing candidate, with his teams known for playing good football.  What makes him more appealing is that he’s not Australian, or wasn’t previously based in Australia.

With every A-League vacancy, the same names are put forward by media types as potential successors.  That list includes Jason’s Dad, Branko Cŭlina and former Socceroos and Brisbane Roar boss Frank Farina.  Had John Kosmina not gone back to old club Adelaide the week before, rest assured he too would have been included in the Victory’s coaching search.  This is in part due to a relatively uninformed public, where many passing sports fans recognise only the larger names in the sport.  It’s also due to a natural lack of talented, credentialed local managers.

Of the 31 coaching appointments in the A-League’s seven years, twenty-five coaches have been employed.  Of those coaches, seven have been re-treads – Cŭlina (twice), Kosmina (twice), Gary Van Egmond, Ian Ferguson, Miron Bleiberg.  18 had already been “in the system”, involved in the A-League or FFA.  Paying release fees for coaches in this league is nearly unheard of, so current A-League managers can be ruled out.

There is a dearth of available high-level coaches available to succeed the current middle-aged monopoly.

Damningly, the average number of A-League games for each manager has been in charge is quite low – a little under two seasons, at 59 games.   When the pool of available coaching talent is observably low, the Australian football hierarchy must be concerned that managers now must be brought in from overseas as local boys haven’t been able to make good (or at least, not good enough for their bosses).

For the Victory, a foreign hire had to be made, because the available high-level coaches haven’t cut the mustard at A-League level.  That 59-game figure above is made more understandable by the following table, which shows the records of “local” coaches with A-League coaching experience but not currently coaching upper echelon football.

Coach	Games	Win	Loss	Draw	Win %
Branko Cŭlina	66	21	30	15	31.81
Ron Smith	33	5	16	12	15.15
Lawrie McKinna	138	50	49	39	36.23
David Mitchell	67	24	29	14	35.82
Mehmet Durakovic	14	3	6	5	21.43
John Adshead	21	1	17	3	4.76
Rini Coolen	42	16	15	11	38.10

A cringeworthy bunch, no?  It’s hardly like Adshead would be considered given his retirement from coaching the New Zealand Knights after a spectacularly unsuccessful inaugural A-League season.  Of the bunch, only Mitchell and McKinna boast finals appearances; while McKinna is the only man to lead his team into the Asian Champions League. 

With international management often being the reward for a prosperous club career, could we look at an A-League manager who’s taken up a position for a national setup?  Ernie Merrick recently took up a position to coach Hong Kong’s national side, while Frank Farina is involved at a high level in football in Papua New Guinea.  Although it is undoubtedly too early for Merrick to return to the Victory, both he and Farina boast considerably better records than those above.  Aurelio Vidmar, now of the Olyroos and assistant to Holger Osieck at the Socceroos is another name worth considering.

Coach	Games	Win	Loss	Draw	Win %
Ernie Merrick	141	64	34	43	45.39
Aurelio Vidmar	107	42	42	23	39.25
Frank Farina	72	29	23	20	40.28

This list includes the A-League’s most successful coach and the Australian coach who took his Reds to the Asian Champions’ League Final against much more well-financed competition.  Each win/loss record is impressive, given their competition above, but hardly awe-inspiring.

There simply isn’t enough top-level coaching and managing talent in Australia to warrant promoting an up-and-comer.  By going initially with an almost-impeccably credentialed top-flight rookie in Durakovic, the Victory flamed out.  Their only choice was to look to the British Isles and those names on their shortlist before the season.  Even then, looking abroad has it’s own concerns.

The A-League needs to look abroad for coaches, because we certainly don’t have the amount of quality coaches needed to ensure a growth of the home-front top tier.

Victory sack Durakovic - let the merry-go-round commence!

Mehmet Durakovic has been fired as manager of A-League side Melbourne Victory, with the club enduring its worst ever start to a season. The team, who splashed out - big time - for Harry Kewell during the offseason, languish in eighth position in the ten-team competition, with only perpetual strugglers Perth and Gold Coast sitting below them.

Durakovic was never likely to have a lengthy career at one of the league's most successful and high-profile clubs. Although his resume boasts numerous Socceroo appearances and stints in charge of the Victorian Institute of Sport and the Victory's youth setup, he simply didn't have the profile - or personality - to be successful at a club like the Victory. While technically adept, he couldn't command the team's attention or respect like former coach Ernie Merrick.

Image courtesy: heraldsun.com.au

The usual suspects are likely to be trotted out as candidates for the job. Branko Culina, recently fired from Newcastle, and former Brisbane Roar boss Frank Farina are the chief names associated with the position now, but that's because they're suspects for every single available A-League job. "Bigger" names like Roy Keane, Iain Dowie and Graham Taylor have also been rumoured to be in the running again, but the Victory's tailing finances probably make the first two long-shots at best.

Graeme "My coach is my friend" Arnold and Ange Postecoglu are probably the best coaches in Australia, but are unlikely to be available for - or want - the position. There will be a groundswell behind local boy and former captain Kevin Muscat - who, although put in temporary charge of the club, is said not to be a candidate. In many ways it's a pity that John Kosmina was recently re-employed by Adelaide: although his arrival would have infuriated Melbourne supporters - and later, the Victory board, given his propensity for rubbing owners the wrong way - he is a talented coach who gets results from unbalanced squads.

The best man for the job could well be Aurelio Vidmar, the former Adelaide coach now assisting Holger Osieck at the Socceroos. Whether he would be interested in taking over former rivals Victory would be questionable, but given Melbourne are likely to appoint a caretaker manager he could be swayed by the end of the season.

Roy Keane for Victory

After firing the most successful manager in A-League history, Ernie Merrick, the Melbourne Victory are in need of a new manager to strategize their Asian Champions' League cause and begin the inevitable rebuilding. The biggest name linked with the job is Roy Keane, late of Sunderland and Ipswich Town.

Local candidates are few: the A-League tends to opt either for recycled coaches or big-name import signings, so unless Melbourne opt to employ a retread, likely their arch-nemesis John Kosmina, their next boss is likely to come from overseas. The list of retread managers reads as long as Kevin Muscat's rap-sheet: Branko Culina (famous mostly for being Jason's dad), Miron Bleiberg, Kosmina and Graeme Arnold. Furthermore, both current and former Roar bosses (Ange Postecoglu and Frank Farina) are made up of old tin cans to resemble old NSL managers.

This points to an obvious leadership vacuum in the top tier of Australian domestic football. Within the past five years, only Aurelio Vidmar has successfully transitioned from player to top-flight coach. A few of the former Adelaide boss's compatriots - Muscat and our former centre-back Tonys (Vidmar and Popovic) most notably - have dabbled in management, becoming the next generation as they were members of the Golden Generation. The absence of young managerial talent means the league relies on imports.

So-called glamour team Sydney FC has opted most often for imports: first Pierre Littbarski, then England hero Terry Butcher. After Butcher, they went the recycled route with Culina and Kosmina before searching overseas for current coach Czech Vitezslav Lavicka, who brought the A-League Championship back to Sydney in 2010.

After a torrid campaign which will see the retirement of Muscat and Merrick losing his "walks on water" status, the Victory appear close to signing Roy Keane to lead them for season 2011-12. It would be a relative coup, given the stature of the club and the massive reputation Keane brings with him and as such would provide a massive publicity boost for the nascent competition. Apparently - unsurprisingly - Keane's reported $1 million per year wage demands are proving a stumbling block but he hasn't dismissed a move which could revitalise his management career, currently stalled after walking out on Sunderland and departing Ipswich Town.

It certainly seems like a good match - a high-profile coach needing to rebuild his reputation, willing to do so out of the spotlight in Australia for a couple of years and bringing a blend of toughness and experience no-one in Australia can match. After he departs, the Victory could then hand the reins over to manager-in-waiting Muscat. It's also a big gamble by both coach and club.

An intense - perhaps even bordering on sociopathic - character, Keane has two great strengths - his experience and reputation. His experience should allow him to gleam both tactically and as a teacher without spending large sums of money. During his initial stint in management, he transformed Sunderland, languishing at the bottom of the Championship, into runaway competition winners within six months without any expense. The Mackems then established themselves in the Premiership with a number of adept signings. His reputation should help attract better calibre players to the club and league: youngsters will flock to learn from him, older stars looking for one last pay cheque will see him legitimise the six-year old league.

He'll also be inspired to coach, given he's running out of managerial chances. It's not his last chance to be sure, but his stock has fallen enormously since touted as a possible Fergie replacement at United. If he is half the teacher and tactician he was as a field-general, he will be a success in Melbourne, and will be able to take a middling job in club management back in Europe within three years. Melbourne would land on their feet, as this would allow Muscat a chance to complete his coaching badges and cut his teeth in the front office before being thrown to the wolves.

There are plenty of downsides, too. The intensity that Keane is famous for worked against him on Wearside as players tired of his abrasive nature. He reportedly took steps to curb that side of his nature when in charge of Ipswich, but questions must be asked as to his ability to control both his temper and body language. The same passion which would demand exacting skill, tactical obedience and professionalism could also be used to intimidate players out of performing - in Australia, the most successful coaches tend to be those who follow the "Softly, Softly" approach.

Though apparently a more restrained character than during his time at United, it's almost never been a failing of the brain which has curtailed his career, but of his temper. If he had the stones to publicly question the standard of United trainees (current Red Devil stalwarts Darren Fletcher and John O'Shea the subject of his ire), he is likely to be supremely disappointed in Australia's youth, obviously of a standard far below any Carrington washout. It's becoming clear that what makes Roy Keane such a formidable competitor is also his greatest downfall.

Add to these factors his curious penchant for signing washouts - El Hadji Diouf, anyone? - which made his transfer record in England break-even at best. In Australia, transfer budgets are a fraction of what they are overseas, suggesting Keane will have to reinvent himself as a teacher, a boss who focuses on coaching and man-management rather than squad refreshment. This could be a real positive for the club and indeed for Keane himself. Like it or not, European bosses are graded on two factors - their deftness in the transfer market and their ability to get the most from their charges. If he can firmly prove his credentials as a man-manager, his stock will rise again.

Victory CEO Gary Cole must balance Roy's pros and cons very carefully before committing to the Irishman. As much as Keane is running out of legitimate management chances, it's not like he needs this to work - should the team fail with him in charge, he can discredit the A-League as a "bush-league" and walk away. For a man with his reputation, there will always be more chances, but as his magical 06-07 with Sunderland fades into the background, they are likely to be in locations more and more remote. Take for example Tony Adams, currently rippin' it up in Azerbaijan. The A-League would be happy with one season, the Victory with two.

Ultimately, should Keane and the Victory come to an arrangement which sees him lead the club, it must be taken with a grain of salt. Roy Keane is in this for one reason - the finance and time to overhaul his coaching image - and that's OK. That's no different to any other coaches. But his reputation comes at such a heavy financial cost that it must be labelled a gamble. Questions remain as to whether the A-League's financial climate is suited to such an expensive roll of the dice.