The times, they are a-changing

Yesterday, I found one of my all-time favourite lucky finds – an old World Football magazine which proudly boasted to contain full 2006-07 squad lists for every major European league.

As I sat back to enjoy again articles like “Gamble on Govou gets France going” and “Sticky start [at Poland] for Beenhakker”, it struck me at the amount the shape of sport has changed in as little as five years.  That year was a particularly interesting one: Roy Keane earned a reputation as the games’ best young manager as he led Sunderland from bottom of the Championship to runaway winners at his first attempt; Red Star Belgrade sold star striker Nikola Zigic to Racing Santander (who has later moved to Valencia and Birmingham City); while the “Five Young Stars of the Copa Libertadores” were Rafael Sobis, Fabiano Eller, Wason Renteria, Leandro Somoza and Cristian Riveros.

The most striking example of how much the game has progressed is in the amount of player turnover at English clubs.  The table below details the 2006-07 English Premier League squads and how much they have changed over the subsequent five years.

Club	06-07 squad	Players in 11-12 squad	06-07 Players on loan	Total players still in EPL	Relegations
Arsenal	32	7	2	15
Aston Villa	24	2	0	10
Blackburn	29	3	0	6
Bolton	23	3	0	8
Charlton	31	0	0	2	**
Chelsea	20	9	0	13
Everton	26	7	1	13
Fulham	27	0	0	3
Liverpool	27	7	1	14
Man City	26	3	0	8
Man Utd	22	9	0	16
M’Brough	29	4	0	9	*
Newcastle	21	3	0	10	*
Portsmouth	26	2	0	3	*
Reading	26	1	0	5	*
Sheff Utd	32	3	0	2	**
Tottenham	27	6	1	12
Watford	30	3	0	4	*
West Ham	28	3	0	10	*
Wigan	25	2	0	8

Keep in mind this was before set 25-man squads, Financial Fair Play and numerous debt crises and takeovers.  The squads are as listed in “World Soccer” Magazine, October 2006 edition and can include promising youth team players.

With the number of players still in the EPL after five years, it’s not surprising that Watford, Sheffield United and Charlton were relegated that season.

EPL: Where the goals come from

"Attacking midfielders" - eg. Samir Nasri or Adel Taarabt - categorized as forwards.

Click image to enlarge.

The table above describes where each team relied upon for scoring in last season's English Premier League.  For example, league Champions Manchester United scored 73.08% of their goals through their forwards - a corps including league-high scorer Dimitar Berbatov, Javier Hernandez and Wayne Rooney.  That they were in the bottom three for goals from midfielders stands testament to the age of last season's key players Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs.

It is interesting to note that clubs noted for a passing game - such as Wigan or at times West Brom - were balanced out for goals from midfield by clubs such as Birmingham, who simply didn't have anyone outside central midfielder Craig Gardner on whom they could rely to hit the net with regularity.  It is of course no surprise to see that clubs who required set pieces to score (I'm looking at you Stoke City) had higher rates of goals scored by defenders.  

Given defenders' propensity scoring from corner and free kick situations, we can infer that with the exception of Birmingham, the relegated teams last season had extreme difficulty scoring from set pieces as West Ham managed only 7% of their goals from defenders, while Blackpool bottomed out of the division at just under 5.5%.

A large difference can be seen in the promoted teams.  While Cities Norwich and Swansea both prefer to attack with the ball on the ground, QPR can't ever be mistaken for a team of Xavis.  Manager Neil Warnock's M.O. is to get the ball to Adel Taarabt at all costs, who then attempts to create havoc.  This is displayed in him creating or scoring 47% of all QPR's goals last term.  A simple reason for them being my pick to go down - they, like Charlie Adam and Blackpool last year just don't have enough diversified offensive firepower.

Survival of the fittest (wealthiest?)

Poetic - sometimes, if we're feeling really good. Evocative? Occasionally. Artistic - hardly. But as we mentioned on Wednesday, the graphic below is about as artistic as Balanced Sports get.

click graphic to enlarge

It plots the survival rates of teams promoted to the Premiership across the past decade and tells a stark tale. While Blackburn, Bolton and Fulham have survived - some would even say thrived - at the top level, the tales of greatest success are to be found in the early part of the past decade when they were joined by Manchester City, Portsmouth, West Ham and Wigan in establishing themselves as Premier League entities.

Of 30 teams promoted, thirteen have gone straight back down.

Elimated after	1 Year	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Teams	13	6**	1*	2*	1*	1	2*	0	0	1*	3***

* Denotes number of teams still in Premier League.

A "Survival Analysis" on such a small sample size would be ineffective given the group loses nearly 50% of it's members after a first year relegation. But were we to examine how many clubs had a five-year survival rate, exactly one promoted club in three stays in the division for five years or more. That means of the 21 teams who could have been in the Premier League for five years by this season (ie. all those teams promoted 2007 or before), seven have survived that length of time.

However, should we withdraw those clubs arriving B.R. (before Roman (Abramovich), who for better or worse changed football forever with his petro-roubles) - that number drops slightly to 26.67%. However, this also includes the recently relegated clubs West Ham United and Portsmouth, who nearly bankrupted themselves with exorbitant wages, the global financial crisis, multiple court appearances and other sundry expenses.

This proves once again that Stoke manager Tony Pulis is correct in his thinking: that three seasons of consolidation should be enough to establish oneself.  With prudent investment - leading to crucial squad refreshment - Premier League status can be retained.  It's all so simple, isn't it?

Not really.  A team must make the choice to thrive and perhaps risk financial crisis (cf. Portsmouth - one FA Cup for debt so large it makes Greece smirk) or simply enjoy an EPL existence, like current relegation favourites Wigan Athletic.  The chasm between first and second divisions hasn't been this great in some time, if ever.  

Even the glory days of Promotion at the turn of the millennium weren't as straightforward as it would seem.  While Bolton Wanderers operated on a shoestring and Sam Allardyce's Route-1 football, Fulham and Manchester City have both benefited from the largesse of a financial benefactor.  As Everton's Bill Kenwright would attest, it's no longer enough to just get to the league and try your chances. 

The two promotion successes of recent years - Sunderland and Stoke City - followed the same model; backed by owners Ellis Short and Peter Coates' combination of fiscal prudency and healthy hip pockets. Along with Wolves, whose finances are also healthy, this trio look likely to maintain this one-in-three average of promoted sides remaining in the division at the expense of smaller clubs and hamstrung owners.

English Premier League Season Preview, part 2

Click here for part one of our Premier League season preview.

Newcastle: New beginnings, or same old same old?

More than any other club, the fortunes of Newcastle United depend on their summer signings: Sylvain Marveaux, Yohan Cabaye, Demba Ba and this season's "like a new signing", Hatem Ben Arfa. The dressing room culture remains awful - as evidenced by Jose Enrique and Joey Barton's apocalyptic tweets - while one wonders if the Magpies have leaders enough to inspire focus among the troops. With Mike Ashley allegedly breaking promises left and right (the last of which were to extend Kevin Nolan's contract and to re-invest all of the ₤35 million they got for Andy Carroll), it seems another troubled season on Tyneside which could see them finish in the top half or sixteenth.

Norwich: Are they already preparing for life back in the Championship?

Paul Lambert and the key Wes Hoolahan

Paul Lambert has brought in several youngsters - Anthony Pilkington, Elliott Bennett and James Vaughan - for significant monies and is banking on their exuberance and pace for a successful season. Or a double-dip into the Championship a la West Brom and the promise of a stronger resultant outfit. While the head says the Canaries will mimic Blackpool's 2011 likeability, it also says they'll probably also do well early and later slide into relegation.

QPR: How important is Adel Taarabt?

How fake is Steven Harper's hair? (Look at the photos, not the crazy political stuff) How vital is Carey Price to a successful Canadiens season? Neil Warnock's Moroccan gem Taarabt has rammed home his importance to the Rs with every magical goal, every startling dribble move and each impressive assist. He scored or created 49.3% of QPR's goals last year and with only DJ Campbell, Kieron Dyer and Jay Bothroyd reinforcing the attackers, will need to reproduce his second-tier form on the big stage. If he can't do it - or is sold to PSG as rumoured - look at QPR like Warnock's 2006-07 brave-but-unsuccessful Sheffield United squad. Only with less talent.

Stoke City: Europa League or The Next Step?

Stoke City have made few signings despite their first European bow in a dog's age. Standing pat amidst a long-time lack of 15-goal strikers, perhaps the greatest question facing gaffer Tony Pulis is whether they can compete on both home and Continental fronts. With sound investment they could push for a 7-10 EPL finish and consequent Europa League qualification but to do so with a small squad could jeopardise their chances of making continental noise this year. Plus, there's no guarantee they could achieve such a high finish, so fans should encourage Tony to mimic Fulham and give the Europa League everything. With the scarcity of talent in the lower reaches of the division and a formidable home advantage, the Potters should avoid a relegation scrap.

Swansea: Will Scott Sinclair push for England honours?

courtesy: swanseacityafc.com

With recent England calls to his U-21 brethren Jordan Henderson, Andy Carroll, Jack Wilshere, Danny Welbeck and now Tom Cleverley, Scott Sinclair could be forgiven for feeling left out. Arguably more accomplished at club level than all but Wilshere, he's also at a much smaller team after failing to get regular chances at Chelsea. With pace to spare and clinical finishing skills, he could keep Stewart Downing, James Milner and Ashley Young looking over their shoulder on the left of England's midfield. It's unlikely, but if he plays well and moves to a bigger club or the Swans stay in the EPL, he may make his full Three Lions debut within a year or two. (Matt Jarvis has played for England for crying out loud! So have Francis Jeffers, Dave Nugent and Jay Bothroyd!)

Sunderland: Europe this season or next?

In a recent post, we argued Sunderland were pushing for Europe with the purchase of South Korean striker Ji Dong-Won, United veterans John O'Shea and Wes Brown, youngster Connor Wickham and last season's revelation Stephane Sessegnon. Craig Gardner could be the driving central force (who was supposed to be Darron Gibson) connecting an experienced backline with promising forwards. With this cast of characters, they should be aiming for a top-eight finish, perhaps replacing Fulham, Everton and Villa who finished above them last term. Bruce's squads are known for mid-season slumps, however, so this infusion of talent needs to stay "up" for the whole year.

Tottenham: Buying or selling?

With Chelsea - and, earlier, Man United - chasing wantaway midfielder Luka Modric and sums of ₤35 million bandied about, it's hard to see how Spurs' chairman Daniel Levy could resist. No matter how much 'Arry Redknapp may want him to. Modric is an excellent player who deserves Champions' League football, but also a classy guy who while wanting to leave won't kick up too much of a stink. If Spurs hold fast until January, they may be able to demand a premium (cf. Fernando Torres & Andy Carroll) if they look like missing the Champions' League next season.

West Brom: Is Shane Long worth ₤8 million?

courtesy: sportydesktops.com

Strikers jumping from Championship to Premiership for premium prices have a chequered record. Long's former Royal teammate Kevin Doyle has been a handful for Wolves but has hardly set the scoring charts alight. Dave Nugent? Pah. DJ Campbell did well for freewheeling Blackpool, but Michael Chopra failed for Sunderland. In this case, the Baggies urgently need a hitman and Long is young, quick and strong enough to do well at the Hawthorns. ₤8 million is a lot of money, but Roy Hodgson is working with a better lineup than during his first Fulham year and should have enough to avoid the relegation scrap. Long could be the player that moves WBA up a level to challenge for the top half, so is worth the cash.
(Long actually signed after publication for what's thought to be an initial 4.5 million with 3.5 million in add-ons).

Wigan: Will the beautiful football be worth it when you're in the Championship, Roberto Martinez?

Harsh, given Martinez is hamstrung by a small market, smaller attendances, a friendly-but-thrifty chairman and a spotty transfer record. For each of his seasons in Wigan, the Latics have been tipped for relegation but Martinez has kept them up playing attractive football. This year could be his undoing as Charles N'Zogbia has departed with only goalkeeper Ali Al-Habsi to replace him. Twentieth position beckons and with relegation the club will lose Hugo Rodallega, Al-Habsi, the precocious James McCarthy and ... wait - who else that matters do Wigan have? The club Dave Whelan and Paul Jewell raised through four divisions could begin a slip back down.

Wolves: What's the over/under on the number of smiles Mick McCarthy will crack this season?

4.5. Mick nearly cracked a smile in the eighty-ninth minute at Old Trafford last year but wisely opted against it as United scored the winner only moments later. This was the story of the season for Wolves as they fought the good fight only to lose gut-wrenchingly many times. With his side faltering at the last hurdle so often, he couldn't be blamed for not smiling. Reinforced by Roger Johnson and the permanent signing of Jamie O'Hara, they're another team which is hard to pick: anything that's not relegation should be considered a win; above fifteenth would mark progress.

Charlie Adam: from Bottom to Top

Charlie Adam appears to have finally sealed a move to Liverpool, six months after it was first mooted during the January transfer window. Now, the questions that remain aren't so much when and how much (a mooted ₤7 million-plus-loanees), but how he and his magical left boot will fit into Liverpool's now increasingly crowded central midfield. While he indubitably has the skill, fire and vision, his greatest drawback may be his body shape as he hearkens back to the days of solid footballers, rather than lithe athletes.

Charlie Adam's Wikipedia page in January

Perhaps more interestingly, he becomes the first player to jump from a Premiership relegated club to one of the "big" clubs in quite some considerable time. He is certainly the first to go to an established , Old-School"Big Four" club for a sizeable fee (and thus expectation) since Peter Crouch moved from the south coast to the north-west. This indicates easily how reliant on him Blackpool became, and also how warmly fellow Scot Kenny Dalglish must think of his countryman.

Over the past few seasons, plenty of players have used the predicament of relegation to their advantage: in fact, raiding the relegated has become an annual pastime for those clubs chock-full of TV revenue. After season 2010-2011 alone, many players stand to improve their footballing and financial fortunes as their clubs slide back into the Championship. Adam's fellow Blackpool standouts David Vaughan, Matt Gilks and DJ Campbell look likely to depart - or have already. The entire Birmigham City defense looks liable to be for sale to the highest bid considering their English roots and 2009-10 efficacy, while Scott Parker, Rob Green, Carlton Cole, Thomas Hitzlsperger and Matthew Upson are all established Internationals with English roots and an eye for Premier League, rather than Championship, football.

That most (if not all) these players will be in the Premiership next term is testament to the wonderful season of English Premier League football we have just experienced - not vintage in terms of great play, but by recent standards surprising, combative and very, very even.

But very few players make the leap from the very bottom to the very top. Those who do often arrive as role players or depth and without significant expectation. In recent memory, those that stand out as being snaffled by top-six sides include Crouch, Michael Owen's fabulous Bosman from Newcastle to a new injury-list in the red half of Manchester and Ross Turnbull's astonishing free to Chelsea - surprising more for the Blues' desire than for any other reason; he's subsequently played two matches in two years. 

That clubs as small as Wigan and Blackpool have been able to make a good fist of staying up speaks volumes of the uniform nature of the Premier League when both could so easily have simply faded into gauche unadventurous football. Both clubs have in past had one player on whom they relied: the Tangerines on Adam, and the Latics last year on Charles N'Zogbia. They are almost featured players - soloists in otherwise pedestrian orchestras.

This reluctance for the big clubs to spend on the little guy could come for a couple of reasons - because the bigger fish may reason that the player isn't sufficiently talented or because there are better players available for a similar cost. Perhaps, amidst the ghastly sums thrown about for unproven and sulky forwards, the big clubs are seeking some semblance of Return on Investment; by opting for tried performers - albeit talent coming from performances in vastly different systems.

Of course such theories are debunked easily and painfully by the ₤50 million Manchester United has offloaded already, a rumoured ₤20 million bid for Downing from Liverpool and Chelsea's concerted - and potentially unrequited - chase for Neymar.  While Financial Fair Play apparently isn't restricting the big clubs' overall spending, it is having a more subtle impact - it requires them to hold out for fiscal, as well as footballing Return on Investment. Ferguson's willingness to sell one-club lieutenants seems to indicate the greatest contribution they can now make to the Red Devils could be evening United's balance sheet.

As clubs enter the Premiership with a plan - and do good jobs of sticking to that blueprint - prepare to witness more of this phenomenon. All of QPR, Norwich City and Swansea City play an unsophisticated method - and the Canaries and Swans are exciting to watch. This could result in the same occurring next year: with Scott Sinclair, Wes Hoolahan or even James McCarthy taking the role of featured soloist.

Time for Wigan to accept their destiny: The Championship

The Premiership is richer for the passing game of Blackpool and Wigan Athletic. The same could be said about their respective locations, nestled in smaller markets in England's Northwest. The Latics and the Tangerines don't necessarily bring a lot of fans, but they certainly offer a different feel to big-city clubs like the clubs' possible replacement QPR. What they may subtract from the league in fan numbers, they replace in diversity.

While receiving the occasional pasting this year, both clubs sill chase survival after wins last week; Blackpool downed Bolton in their usual shootout, while the Latics sealed West Ham's fate with a comeback from two goals down. Both wins could be regarded as an fine examples of their opponents' profligacy or generosity, but it would be extremely ungenerous to suggest these successes were the result only of their opponents shortcomings.

Perhaps now, before potentially their last game in the EPL for some time, it's a good time to examine Wigan's Premiership heritage. They are the picture of a division-climbing club, having elevated themselves - courtesy Dave Whelan's JJB Sports in the early days - from the old Third Division to their current position as the Premiership's youngest (founded 1932) but 12th-longest tenured team. To this point, they've outlasted sixteen different teams and changed managers four times, moving from Jewell-ball through the disastrous Chris Hutchings era to Brucie-ball and now have (mostly) acclimatised to Martinez's passing style. They've been involved in perhaps the most dramatic final-day match in recent memory, their encounter with Sheffield United that saw former Blade David Unsworth slot the deciding penalty to retain their top-tier status.

Unfortunately, aside from a nice first season, that incredible spectacle may prove the lasting image and best moment in Wigan's EPL legacy. Over recent years, Dave Whelan has sold his JJB Sports business, Steve Bruce moved to manage Sunderland and took with him his extraordinary Central & South American scouting network (resulting in Latics like Hendry Thomas, Maynor Figuero, Hugo Rodallega and most notably, Wilson Palacios); finally, they've managed only average results from Roberto Martinez's flowing football. Crowds at the DW Stadium - the reading of which always proving something of a fraught exercise given Wigan's proximity to English Rugby country - have dropped an avaerage of 1200 this season to a little more than 16,800. This marks the third straight year of decline.

While this is likely to be an incredibly unpopular opinion with Latic fans, maybe it's time for Wigan to fade into the Championship. To the neutral observer, their Premiership stint has been generally one coloured in varying tones of beige and as their crowds opt for distractions anew, they are joined by the rest of the league; where Wigan are considered only when they appear on the fixture list. The diversity they bring to the league has become overshadowed by the disregard in which they are held by opposing fans. And with the emergence of Swansea City and Blackpool there are, for the first time in a few years, replacements on hand in style and locale.

It could be that the Championship is their level and the Latics have overachieved for years. This season's average attendance would rank mid-table in the Championship and would likely drop to match the playing level. Squad investment hasn't been there in recent years, with the relatively high-price purchases of Boselli and N'Zogbia overshadowed by the departures of Antonio Valencia (£16M) and Palacios (£ 12M). This is reflected somewhat in Whelan's heartwarming suggestions that Martinez's job is safe in sickness (relegation) or in health (survival). For two years, their first priority has not been to thrive in the top flight, but only to survive.

It's a simple fact of football that it's difficult to continue competing without adequate (and wise) investment: in some respects owners must throw good money after bad. Attempting to turn a profit by buying low and selling high is a laudable school of thought, but it's also a recipe for eventual (and potentially terminal) struggle as Middlesbrough discovered in 2009. The Latics have had a good run in the Premiership and may well survive to fight another year. But without substantial financial commitment, can they hope for any further development from their current squad? The answer, unfortunately, is at best a "maybe".

With all depending on what projects as a wonderful "Survival Sunday", we'll know sooner rather than later. Wigan may have drawn the best fixture, seeing them fighting against Stoke City, who's season effectively ended with last week's FA Cup final. Unlike their Nor'west Tangerine rivals, they don't face United. Unlike the Brummies, they aren't away to Spurs. They don't face another hungry relegation candidate as when Wolves and Blackburn meet. Their destiny remains their own - another year of overachievement and struggle, or perhaps this group is the one which accepts what appears to be their eventual fate: away matches at Coventry, Ipswich and Derby County.

Image of Roberto Martinez courtesy: www.guardian.co.uk

Image of Mauro Boselli courtesy: www.clicklancashire.co.uk