EPL: Promoted clubs' survival rates to 2015

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Graphic: English Premier League promotion survival rates, 2013-14

(c) Balanced Sports

The graphic above details the prospects of each team that has been promoted to the English Premiership since its institution in 1992-93. Blue indicates the number of years spent in the top flight after a club's initial promotion, green the number of years after a consequent promotion and red indicates a year spent outside the top division.

Ian Holloway: Don't you think he looks tired?

“Six little words that could bring down a government … don’t you think she looks tired?”

Those words and a couple of questionable decisions ousted the fictional Harriet Jones from the Prime Ministership of Great Britain.  So powerful is one’s appearance that all it takes is speculative criticism and fading appearance to lose a grip on authority.

In related news, everyone’s favourite jumble-a-quote man Ian Holloway has left Crystal Palace by mutual consent after winning only one of his team’s eight Premier League games so far this season.  Former Bristol City manager Keith Millen will take over as interim boss as the club investigates possible new blood; names mentioned so far have included former Stoke City manager Tony Pulis, a re-hired Neil Warnock and Western Sydney Wanderers manager Tony Popovic.

This may genuinely be one of those rare situations in football where the term mutual consent isn’t simply a kinder synonym for sacked.  A man whose straightforward nature and Worzel-type accent sometimes drew attention away from a keen football mind, Holloway was visibly exhausted only three months into the season and as he failed to balance a squad that boasted plenty of players but only a few of even an average level.  His flowing, offensive tactics have plenty of merit in the Championship but have now failed twice to transport to Premier League standard.

The travails of managing a club unprepared for life at the top level were apparent on his usually smiling features.  Recent pictures – including this one, usually a bog-standard "manager shot" – show a defeated man, albeit one who hadn’t yet surrendered.  When even the involuntary parts of body language betray a manager so quickly, doubts build about his ability to make effective decisions; as the stress increased, it became increasingly apparent that Ian Holloway’s future lay away from Selhurst Park.

10-year form chart, English Championship promotion contenders

Perhaps this year they can do it.

Maybe, just maybe, this is the year that Cardiff City can break their five-year playoff hoodoo and finally earn promotion to the Premier League.  Few would argue that they're deserving - the Bluebirds Dragons have finished thereabouts in English football's second tier for half a decade as well appearing at Wembley in FA and League Cup Finals - yet seem always to develop a flopsweat of Nixonian proportions during the season's most crucial weeks.

Cardiff and their rivals for automatic promotion - at this stage, mainly a rejuvenated Hull City and Gianfranco Zola's time-shared Watford squad - are without question the best three teams the Championship have to offer.  As an added bonus and in contrast to some other upstarts ascendent, all three should also have the resources to make a splash should they rise into the the Premiership, albeit through vastly different methods.

The peloton features PYTs of management, Gus Poyet and Dougie Freedman (whose current and ex-clubs find themselves in the chase).  It should come as no surprise that a surging Nottingham Forest - with their demonstrable playoff chops - find themselves firmly ensconced in fifth position.

Each team has its own narrative: Cardiff's collection of close misses, the Return of the King at Forest and even an Egyptian connection at Hull City made especially poignant by that country's recent football history.  The Premier League will be a richer - and more curious - league for their impending presence.

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Expanded EPL survival rates now available

On Monday we published the survival rates of every team promoted to the English Premier League from the League Championship since the start of the year.

Because I like to be thorough and because we're about to enter the Premiership's 21st season, I expanded the diagram (and hopefully made it somewhat clearer) to take in every promoted team since the inception of the league in 1992-93.

As usual, years spent continuously in the top division are indicated in azure, while any season spent in the Premier League after promotion-relegation-promotion are represented by green.  Red denotes any season spent outside the Premiership, because we all know football begins and ends there (/sarcasm).

Copyright Balanced Sports

As you can see, Second Season Syndrome is perhaps an overstated phenomenon, with only six instances of a club being relegated after their second year in the EPL.  Every time I look at this graphic I mentally congratulate Fulham for their longevity, a streak matched in the Premiership's history by Newcastle United after their promotion in Year 1 anno PL.

Graphic: Premier League survival rates

The graphic below shows the survival rates since the start of the millennium of teams promoted from The Championship.  It's a direct extension of a similar post authored at about this time last year.

Survival of the fittest (wealthiest?)

Poetic - sometimes, if we're feeling really good. Evocative? Occasionally. Artistic - hardly. But as we mentioned on Wednesday, the graphic below is about as artistic as Balanced Sports get.

click graphic to enlarge

It plots the survival rates of teams promoted to the Premiership across the past decade and tells a stark tale. While Blackburn, Bolton and Fulham have survived - some would even say thrived - at the top level, the tales of greatest success are to be found in the early part of the past decade when they were joined by Manchester City, Portsmouth, West Ham and Wigan in establishing themselves as Premier League entities.

Of 30 teams promoted, thirteen have gone straight back down.

Elimated after	1 Year	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Teams	13	6**	1*	2*	1*	1	2*	0	0	1*	3***

* Denotes number of teams still in Premier League.

A "Survival Analysis" on such a small sample size would be ineffective given the group loses nearly 50% of it's members after a first year relegation. But were we to examine how many clubs had a five-year survival rate, exactly one promoted club in three stays in the division for five years or more. That means of the 21 teams who could have been in the Premier League for five years by this season (ie. all those teams promoted 2007 or before), seven have survived that length of time.

However, should we withdraw those clubs arriving B.R. (before Roman (Abramovich), who for better or worse changed football forever with his petro-roubles) - that number drops slightly to 26.67%. However, this also includes the recently relegated clubs West Ham United and Portsmouth, who nearly bankrupted themselves with exorbitant wages, the global financial crisis, multiple court appearances and other sundry expenses.

This proves once again that Stoke manager Tony Pulis is correct in his thinking: that three seasons of consolidation should be enough to establish oneself.  With prudent investment - leading to crucial squad refreshment - Premier League status can be retained.  It's all so simple, isn't it?

Not really.  A team must make the choice to thrive and perhaps risk financial crisis (cf. Portsmouth - one FA Cup for debt so large it makes Greece smirk) or simply enjoy an EPL existence, like current relegation favourites Wigan Athletic.  The chasm between first and second divisions hasn't been this great in some time, if ever.  

Even the glory days of Promotion at the turn of the millennium weren't as straightforward as it would seem.  While Bolton Wanderers operated on a shoestring and Sam Allardyce's Route-1 football, Fulham and Manchester City have both benefited from the largesse of a financial benefactor.  As Everton's Bill Kenwright would attest, it's no longer enough to just get to the league and try your chances. 

The two promotion successes of recent years - Sunderland and Stoke City - followed the same model; backed by owners Ellis Short and Peter Coates' combination of fiscal prudency and healthy hip pockets. Along with Wolves, whose finances are also healthy, this trio look likely to maintain this one-in-three average of promoted sides remaining in the division at the expense of smaller clubs and hamstrung owners.

Promoted teams' survival rates

(click photo to enlarge)

Key: Blue = Uninterrupted Premier League tenure; Red = In lower division; Grey = season yet to be played; Green = team in Premier League after relegation (and probable lineup changes).

The above chart maps the fortunes of all the teams promoted tot he English Premier League since 2001.  It shows the startling decrease over the past four years of promoted teams strengthening over time.

Full analysis coming Friday.  As this is as artistic as I get, thought it was worth sharing early.

The Ballpark Guide to Promoted teams' spending

When writing a piece for the Montreal Gazette concerning how much each promoted side had paid to assemble their roster, it was interesting to note the circumstances of each team. Queens Park Rangers, though ostensibly backed by the capacious pockets of Bernie Ecclestone and perhaps Lakshmi Mittal, have spent a miserly ₤1.25 million on striker D.J. Campbell while both Swansea City and Norwich City have repeatedly raided the Football League for standouts and bargains.

courtesy: thecomet.net

To praecy, both Norwich and Swansea Cities have spent record transfer fees this year on strikers from the Championship; the Swans captured Watford's Danny Graham, while the East Anglian avian cousins grabbed Welsh International Steve Morison from Millwall. Both clubs have also re-tooled with stars of the lower-tiers like Wayne Routledge, Leroy Lita, Anthony Pilkington and Elliott Bennett.

Though both are spending - both appear to have spent nearly nine million pounds - it seems both are following the WBA and Blackpool approach to the Premiership: survival would be nice, but not worth overextending the club's finances. With sound investment and a keen eye on the wage bill, the parachute payments should see a club in contention for promotion again within a year or two.

Prudence has been the order of the day in both far East and West. Not only do lower-leaguers cost less, but they also demand smaller wage packets as they seek a chance for Premier League success. Like the global economy, we could see these clubs prepared to "double-dip" to avoid mimicking the harrowing fortunes of Hull City or Portsmouth.

courtesy: goal.com

These sudden wodges of cash burning holes in the pockets of Paul Lambert and Brendan Rodgers aren't dissimilar to those spent by Newcastle United and West Bromwich Albion before last season. QPR's meagre investment is dwarfed even by Blackpool's last season, who spent less than four million pounds. Both have preferred to bring in free transfers. The difference between the two, however, is that the Rs spent mostly in 2007-08-09, bringing in the likes of Heidar Helguson, Hogan Ephraim, Alejandro Faurlin and Matthew Connolly.

Newcastle United are perhaps the most atypical promoted side in recent history. Rather than being a long-term Championship heavyweight such as WBA, Birmingham or (to a lesser extent) Wolves, they easily won the Championship after years of bringing in players who fit a Tyneside lust for power. Like perhaps West Ham United will be this term, Newcastle were a Premier League squad playing in the Championship.

The table below is designed to give ballpark figures of how much each club spent in their promotion year. Please note that these figures were assembled using a variety of websites such as SkySports, transfermarkt.co.uk, soccerbase.com and news reports. When transfer fees were not disclosed, the last known rumoured price was used (often preceding the actual deal by only hours). This means it's unlikely the figures are 100% accurate; however, they are as close to accurate as can be found online or without detailed knowledge of a club's inner workings. Loans are not included.

Key: K = thousand, M = million.  All figures in pounds.  "Accurate" to 5th August 2011.  Players not given a squad number (eg. Lee Cook, Rowan Vine & Martin Rowlands) not included.

	Championship Winner		Automatic Promotion		Playoffs Winner
Year	2010	2011	2010	2011	2010	2011
Team	Newcastle	QPR	West Brom	Norwich	Blackpool	Swansea
Years in Champ'ship	1	7	1	1	3	3
Plyrs in on Promotion:	5	4	7	5	10	4
Spent when Promoted	9.5M	1.25M	7.6M	8.6M	3.85M*	8.75M
Spent Year before	5.15M	4.05M	3.1M	3.025M	500K	1.75M
Squad Academy Graduates	5	4	Nil	3	1	3
Highest fee paid for current plyr:	10.3M (Coloccini)	3.5M (Faurlin)	3M (Brunt)	2.8M (Morison)	1.2M (Campbell)	3.5M (Graham)
Squad FTs:	5	9	6	5	12	9
GK Spend	0	750 000	3.25M	100 000	0	1.5M
DF Spend	19.35M	2.45M	11.1M	2.125M	1.675M	400K
MID Spend	29.2M	8.3M	6.55M	3.35 M	2.325M	3.985M
Fwd Spend	11.2M	3.4M	9.2M	8.4M	1.29M	6.7M
Total:	59.75M	14.9M	30.1M	13.98M	5.29M	12.185M
Avg p/plyr:	2.39M	596K	1.2M	559K	211.6K	487.4K

*Includes estimates of price paid for David Carney and Neal Eardley.

The Cost of Promotion to the Premiership

In the wake of some silly spending by Sven-Goran Eriksson and Leicester City as well as pre-season predictions of doom for the three English Premiership newcomers this season, it's worth taking the time to examine just how much it costs to contend in England's top division.

To do so, we can evaluate how much it costs to buy players needed to finish in the Championship's automatic promotion positions or win through via the Playoffs. Please note that these figures were assembled using a variety of websites and sources. They may be 100% accurate, but the likelihood is that they are as close to accurate as can be found online or without detailed knowledge of a club's inner workings.  When a transfer was marked as "undisclosed", we used the last rumoured price - which often preceded the actual deal by days or hours.  These aren't obviously meant to be definite guides but ballpark figures.

Player salaries - generally for all these teams quite manageable - and loan players have not been included.  D.J. Campbell, who has agreed a move to QPR that is yet to be confirmed, is.

Key: K = thousand, M = million, F = free transfer, Y = graduated club's youth academy, N = nominal fee. All figures in pounds.

Queens' Park Rangers

2010-11 Position: First in Championship, automatic promotion.

Academy Graduates: 4

Highest fee paid for current player: ₤3.5 million for midfielder Alejandro Faurlin (2009)

Goalkeepers: R. Cerny (F), P. Kenny (750K), E. Putnins (Y) - total ₤750K

Defenders: M. Connolly (1M), D. Gabbidon (F), K. Gorkss (250K), F. Hall (700K), C. Hill (F), B. Orr (500K), P. Ramage (F), D. Shittu (F) - total ₤2.45M

Midfielders: M. Doughty (Y), A. Bruno (Y), A. Buzsaky (500K), S. Derry (F), H. Ephraim (800K), A. Faurlin (3.5M), M. Harriman (Y), J. Mackie (500K), P. Vaagen Moen (F), T. Smith (1.5M), A. Taarabt (1.5) - total ₤8.3M

Forwards: J. Bothroyd (F), P. Agyemang (350K), H. Helguson (1M), R. Hulse (800K), A. Pellicori (F), D.J. Campbell (1.25M) - total ₤3.4M

Total: ₤14.9 million.

% of total spent this summer: 8.39%

Norwich City

2010-11 Position: Second in Championship, automatic promotion

Academy Graduates: 3

Highest fee paid for current player: ₤2.8 million for striker Steve Morison (2011)

Goalkeepers: J. Ruddy (100K), D. Rudd (Y)

Defenders: R. Martin (250K), A. Drury (500K), Z. Whitbread (350K?), L. Barnett (750K), E. Ward (F), M. Tierney (275K) - total ₤2.125M.

Midfielders: B. Johnson (F), A. Crofts (F), A. Surman (1.45M), W. Hoolahan (250K), D. Fox (F), E. Bennett (1.3M), K. Smith (Y), S. Lappin (100K), A. McNamee (250K), S. Hughes (F) - total ₤3.35M

Forwards: S. Morison (2.8M), J. Vaughan (2.5M), S. Jackson (600K), G. Holt (400K), A. Pilkington (2M), C. Martin (Y), A. Wilbraham (100K) - total ₤8.4M.

Total: ₤13.975 million.

% of total spent this summer: 61.54%

Swansea City

2010-11 Position: Third in Championship, defeated Nottm Forest & Reading in playoffs

Academy Graduates: 3

Highest fee paid for current player: ₤3.5 million for forward Danny Graham (2011)

Goalkeepers: Y. Makabu Ma Kalambay (F), D. Cornell (Y), J. Moreira (1.5M?) - total ₤1.5M

Defenders: A. Rangel (N), G. Monk (F), A. Tate (F), N. Taylor (F), A. Williams (400K)

Midfielders: M. Gower (F), K. Agustien (F), J. Allen (Y), D. Cotterill (600K), N. Dyer (400K), S. Sinclair (500K), A. Richards (Y), A. Orlandi (F), L. Britton (400K), F. Bodde (85K), W. Routledge (2M) - total ₤3.985M

Forwards: L. Moore (850K), S. Dobbie (F), D. Graham (3.5), C. Beattie (600K), L. Lita (1.75M) - total ₤6.7M

Total: ₤12.185M

% of total spent this summer: 67.71% 

QPR's Adel Taarabt.

What does it take to stay up?

Over the past decade, thirty clubs have been promoted from the Championship to the Premiership. Some take with them solid financial footing, others acquire it with the TV rights riches that accompany such a promotion. Occasionally, clubs will try to set out all stops to defend their territory, fearing leaking goals is a surefire route back to the second tier. Others – like Owen Coyle, Tony Mowbray and Ian Holloway – prefer to play the attractive football which got them to the Big Dance in the first place.

Within the following table, there are several “usual suspects”, clubs which have see-sawed between Premiership and League Championship - Sunderland, Birmingham and particularly that very definition of the “yo-yo team”, West Bromwich Albion. Each club has had the chance to attain multiple promotions because they’ve acquired the annoying habit of suffering relegation almost immediately after each promotion.

Over the past decade, we’ve seen a disturbing trend towards clubs lasting only one or two years in the Premiership after promotion. Of course this has always been a problem for the Football League but recently this problem has become even more tricky as survival almost demands significant fiscal investment.

In the table below, recent years have provided a dearth of clubs able to survive in the big league long term: recently, Stoke City and Newcastle appear able to maintain their EPL status, but all of recent promoted teams West Brom, Wolves, Birmingham and Blackpool have had one strong season followed by a weak one (and relegation) or have failed to convince altogether.

Year	Teams Promoted	EPL Years	Points	Goals	Conceded	Result
2001-02	Fulham Blackburn Bolton	10* 10* 10*	44 46 40	36 55 44	44 51 62	Safe – 13 Safe – 10 Safe – 16
2002-03	Man City West Brom Birmingham	9* 1 4	51 26 48	47 29 41	51 65 49	Safe – 9 Drop – 19 Safe – 13
2003-04	Portsmouth Leicester Wolves	7 1 1	45 33 33	47 48 38	54 65 77	Safe – 13 Drop – 18 Drop – 20
2004-05	Norwich West Brom Crystal Palace	1 2 1	33 34 33	42 36 41	77 61 62	Drop – 19 Safe – 17 Drop – 18
2005-06	Sunderland Wigan Athl. West Ham	1 6* 6*	15 51 55	26 45 52	69 52 55	Drop – 20 Safe – 10 Safe – 9
2006-07	Reading Sheff. Utd Watford	2 1 1	55 38 28	52 32 29	47 55 59	Safe – 8 Drop – 18 Drop – 20
2007-08	Sunderland Birmingham Derby County	4* 1 1	39 35 11	36 46 20	59 62 89	Safe – 15 Drop – 19 Drop – 20
2008-09	West Brom Stoke City Hull City	1 3* 2	32 45 35	36 38 39	67 55 64	Drop – 20 Safe – 12 Safe – 17
2009-10	Wolves Birmingham Burnley	2* 2* 1	38 50 30	32 38 42	56 47 82	Safe – 15 Safe – 9 Drop - 18
2010-11	Newcastle West Brom Blackpool	1* 1* 1*	?	?	?	?

Perhaps the greatest key is not so much goals scored as goals conceded in the first year in the top tier. While wins may be the key to survival, it stands to reason that if clubs don’t concede, they don’t lose. If we average the number of first-year goals conceded by “long-term” survivors – those who lasted longer than two seasons – against those who went down within two years, we come up with the following:

First year stats ========	Total Conceded	Avg Conceded	Total Scored	Avg Scored
Survived >2 years	523	52.3	400	40
Relegated w/in 2 years	919	65	524	37.4

Clubs promoted in 2009 or 2010 have not been taken into account as four still battle relegation.

No club has allowed more than Bolton’s 62 goals in 2001-02 and survived for more than two years. Within the last five years that total has dropped – Sunderland conceded 59 in 2007-08 and remain in the Premiership to this day. The club who conceded the least and were still relegated within their first two years was Reading, who actually conceded the second-smallest total of first-season goals, but suffered a horrible case of “second season syndrome” after failing to adequately reinforce after a superb first year and were condemned to the Championship.

Of course life’s never as simple as statistics seem to make it. Often, yo-yo clubs simply aren’t good enough in any one aspect of the game to survive in the Premiership for any length of time (eg. Watford and Derby County).

It seems scoring goals isn’t as important as saving them. This shows that clubs who set out stall to defend – such as Stoke City – and then build upon that solidity are well-placed to survive. Clubs who favour footballing philosophies rather than pragmatism – clubs like Burnley and Blackpool – make for a happier, more watchable Premier League but seldom survive for long periods.

Image of Owen Coyle courtesy: telegraph.co.uk

Image of Tony Pulis courtesy: msn.foxsports.com

Balanced Sports on Soccerlens: Championship Promotion Playoffs analysis

Balanced Sports has again been published on Soccerlens, this time a piece by Matthew Wood analysing what makes a successful club in the Championship Promotion Playoffs.

Lambert engineers Norwich City's Premiership promotion

How much credit a manager can take for a club's results finds its definition with Norwich City boss Paul Lambert. Yesterday, his Canaries defeated Portsmouth 1-0 away to clinch promotion to the Premiership. In doing so, they secured their second successive promotion, the first time such a feat has occurred since the Premiership's bourgeousie nouveau riche Manchester City did so in 2000.

Although the former Scotland international, now regarded as English management's brightest of bright young things, won the European Cup as a player with Borussia Dortmund and had a storied career at Celtic, he is best known south of the border now for his exploits in East Anglia having helmed the club to it's highest point in eight years after joining while at it's nadir.

He took the reins after the first week of the 2009-10 League One season, a season which saw Norwich City in the third tier for the first time in forty-nine years and after a match which saw Norwich thumped 1-7 before their own fans at Carrow Road by Colchester United. Lambert managed Colchester that day and was appointed to succeed Bryan Gunn, who fell on his sword after the heaviest defeat in Canary history. His first task was to stem the haemmorhage and then focus on promotion.

Rather than subscribe to dour play, he utilised a 4-4-2 Diamond formation based around the attacking play of Grant Holt and Wes Hoolahan. While the season started slowly - in late September they sat in fourteenth position with only two wins and four draws from nine - the Canaries suddenly began a rampage with sixteen wins and two draws from nineteen matches, planting them firmly atop the League One table. They ended the season nine points clear of Leeds United as Champions, with a goal difference 10% greater to their nearest rival's. For the last twenty rounds of the season, Norwich had occupied first position.

This year in the Championship, they've been no less spectacular. They again lead the league in Goals scored (six more than nearest rivals Cardiff) and, should the FA decide to impose a points sanction on QPR for signing Argentine midfielder Alejandro Faurlin from a third party, they may end the season as Champions again. Canadian Simeon Jackson's late-season form surge helped Holt secure the goals that led to vital wins time and again, while the Canaries are a much fitter outfit and more financially stable. What cash crises have plagued them in the past should, with adept fiscal management, be things of the past.

Norwich City's achievements are so heartwarming because their initial expectations for the season consisted of no more than staying up. Now, like Blackpool before them, they will take on perhaps Europe's most intense league. They'll do so boasting a squad with a combined total of 38 games of Premiership experience and only 26 EPL starts. Twenty of those starts belong to three defenders Rob Edwards, Elliot War and Leon Barnett. Several of their number, including their captain Holt, begun their careers in non-league football. For them to gel so wonderfully for one man pays homage to his motivation and tactics.

For years, pundits asked of success if it's the players, the coaches, or even the shoes. There's no doubt that a upgrade in manager - or even just a change of tune - can make a serious difference to a club's performance: Inter Milan crept up the table when Rafael Benítez was displaced with little player turnover. This isn't to say that Benítez is a bad manager - a Champions' League title says he's not - but that he either assessed the situation poorly or wasn't able to win over the dressing room with his motivational or tactical style. Where Rafa failed with big club, Lambert has succeeded in spades with a smaller one. With only moderate financial backing, he has orchestrated one of the key feats of this nascent footballing decade.

For that he should be congratulated.

Photo courtesy: www.guardian.co.uk