Redknapp's England

This week came the startling revelation that Pearce's England looks a lot like Capello's England. Capello's England looked remarkably like his predecessor's, and his two forebears. As England produces elite national teams about once per generation, it is hardly surprising that althought the managers differ, squads appear habitually mundane.

 England have tried many of the tried-and-true coaching approaches, with each, like Doctors Who, swinging wildly between each appointment. It's likely that with the almost inexorable Redknapp appointment, the FA will adopt a moderate approach which satisfies fans, players and media alike.

 So even though his ascension is by no means a fait d'accompli, it is worth asking what Redknapp's England would look like. With his last two managerial positions, Redknapp has favoured a regulation 4-4-2 formation based around the strengths of his current squad. As has been commented upon regularly, his sides don't generally focus on tactical mystery but pre-internet age football.

 When he took Portsmouth to the FA Cup in 2008 his sides strengths included a powerful central midfield with one designated creator (in this case Niko Kranjcar) and uncompromising centre-backs. His Spurs have a similar look: immutable central defenders, full-backs preferring advance to retreat and the same midfield headliner but adds the extra confunding factor of barrels of wing pace. At both post codes, the ginger cockney one has relied upon contributions from target men with smaller, pacy offsiders.

 To take this formula and apply it to the 25 players each England manager feels honour-bound to select is revealing. Several players fit the Redknapp formula – most notably Spurs Parker, Lennon and King – and therefore thrust themselves almost automatically into selection. When those players are combined with England's best players like Joe Hart, Ashley Cole and Wayne Rooney, suddenly there are only a few positions left.

Goalkeeper: Hart
Defenders: Walker, King, Jagielka, Cole.
Midfielders: Lennon, Parker, Gerrard, A. Johnson
Forwards: Welbeck, Rooney
Subs: Richards, Dawson, Sturridge, Baines, Green, Carrick, Young.

 At right-back, I've opted for Kyle Walker over Glen Johnson although Redknapp has brought out the best in both. This is mostly because Walker's form over the past year has been superior to that of the Liverpool man. Rooney and Man U teammate Welbeck are simply the best fit as a strike partnership as there really isn't an English target man of quality (unless you count the corpse of Peter Crouch). QPR new-boy Bobby Zamora could fill this spot, but would need more form at Rangers to justify selection, while should Andy Carroll regain a modicum of form he could have 'Arry slavering.

 The key playmaker should be the man with the lego-hair, Steven Gerrard. The only other player qualified for such a key role would be Rooney, and doing such would mean the new boss wouldn't play his best player where he operates best. Despite being on the downside of his distinguished career, Gerrard places passes better than any English midfielder not ginger and playing for another team in red; he also should conceivably dovetail nicely with Parker before sharing the centre of the park with Jack Wilshere upon the Arsenal teen's return to full health.

 The biggest question marks lie at centre-back and on the left of midfield. Ledley King has been a staunch performer, but his knees make my grandma's look stable and healthy. John Terry's selection should be unconscionable for reasons of team harmony, but if anyone is able to solidify dressing-room relationships, then it's Redknapp. It's possible (probable?) Terry is ignored completely and the management decision comes down to the relative stolidity of Phil Jagielka, Chris Smalling and Michael Dawson.

 On the midfield's left, Redknapp could go any of half a dozen directions with each presenting interesting and frightfully scary alternatives. The first would be to employ Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain against the protests of Arsene Wenger and Stewart Downing. “The Ox” would provide the type of endeavour, spirit and speed that Redknapp appreciates, but still occasionally likes to watch Postman Pat in the afternoon before heading down for a nap.

 His other four options include incumbent James Milner, who's as pacy as a pensioner pushing a recliner uphill, Ashley Young, Stewart Downing and Adam Johnson. Johnson has perhaps the most speed of the quartet, and while doesn't meet Downing's sabermetric proficiency with his crosses, he is an impact player of whom Redknapp should think he can obtain more production. Given Redknapp's real world (and occasionally imagined) miracle-working abilities, it's reasonable to include him in this theoretical team.

Harry Redknapp - checking (most of) the boxes

The odds are that Harry Redknapp will replace Fabio Capello. The Spurs manager has been heavily backed for the position by everyone from Wayne Rooney to former FA Chairman Lord Triesman. That Stuart Pearce has received the FA's blessing to take charge for England's February 29^th match with Holland indicates that any potential decisions won't be made swiftly. Spurs fans can cling to the knowledge that 'Arry will pace the White Hart Lane sidelines for at least three more weeks.

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Redknapp is of course favoured for the job for many reasons, not least of which is because he's English. It's disturbing to see a football populace focused so firmly on nationality rather than talent; but with two of the country's past three gaffers being expensive “ringers”, much of the masses hope for a local boss to make good.

And well he might: Redknapp as a manager checks many of the boxes you'd want from a leader. He keeps thing simple (a must), doesn't delve too far into tactics or coaching, isn't a disciplinarian and isn't in John Terry's camp. He is a simple “player's coach” – but rather than being an enabler like Schteve McClaren, he is an empowerer.

He's even won things, too. He brought an FA Cup to Portsmouth, notwithstanding the trophy was part of a spending spree which nearly caused the death of the club. When nationalism, coaching and player relationships are considered, Harry Redknapp probably checks more boxes than any other potential candidate.

But checking boxes isn't enough.

Remember back to the schoolyard riddle that asks who you would prefer to run your country. The chain-smoking, possibly-alcoholic, philandering astrology buff; the manic depressive toff with a drink problem; or the vegetarian, teetotal war veteran? I'm sure you've heard this riddle – for the seemingly straight-laced decorated veteran is, in fact, Adolf Hitler. The former two are President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Winston Churchill.

If you apply the same logic to a real-world situation, then suddenly the picture becomes even clearer. Now, companies do much of their pre-research and vetting for employee applications online in a multiple-choice questionnaire. This is in order to minimise the time spent by Human Resources on screening applicants.

If you've ever filled in one of these surveys, you'll know what I'm getting at: they are able to completely misrepresent an applicant as an individual by breaking down a person's entire existence into yes-or-no type answers. And yes-or-no answers are rarely – if ever – able to describe a situation fully and truthfully. Although no-one expects the FA only to look at Harry Redknapp's resume, his achievements are of the type which lend themselves to yes-or-no answers. The CV of, for example, David Moyes does not – and there are those who suspect he would make an excellent England manager.

Sport is rife with examples of people who checked all the right boxes, yet failed miserably as a coach. In 1993, the Dallas Mavericks employed rookie coach Quinn Buckner. He had all the right attributes to become a wonderfully successful coach: driven, very smart, hard-working, knowledgeable, measured, came from a background of team and individual success, disciplined … and the Mavs won 13 games (of 82).

His mentor, the firebrand Bobby Knight, is considered one of the greatest coaches in basketball history. As a player at Ohio State he was a scrub on a middling team. As a coach, his record was even more surprising: he was arrested while leading a team to Puerto Rico; left Charles Barkley off the 1984 Olympic team (for Jeff Turner); was quoted as saying “if rape is inevitable, relax and enjoy it”; was nearly fired for allegedly assaulting a student and eventually dismissed for “a pattern of hostile behaviour”.

There's almost no question Quinn Buckner was as qualified to succeed as Bobby Knight.  But but didn't.

Of course, coming from a different sport, this is a flawed example. But the premise remains the same – that the candidate that checks the most boxes isn't necessarily the best man for the job. Just ask Liverpool fans what they think of Roy Hodgson, Inter their opinion of Gian Piero Gasperini or West Ham of their time spent with Avram Grant.

There was every reason for optimism on Fabio Capello's appointment to boss England; or at least there was until England broke him. There are just as many suspicions that Harry Redknapp would be an outstanding England manager, but it's possible he's not the best man for the job.

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Survival of the fittest (wealthiest?)

Poetic - sometimes, if we're feeling really good. Evocative? Occasionally. Artistic - hardly. But as we mentioned on Wednesday, the graphic below is about as artistic as Balanced Sports get.

click graphic to enlarge

It plots the survival rates of teams promoted to the Premiership across the past decade and tells a stark tale. While Blackburn, Bolton and Fulham have survived - some would even say thrived - at the top level, the tales of greatest success are to be found in the early part of the past decade when they were joined by Manchester City, Portsmouth, West Ham and Wigan in establishing themselves as Premier League entities.

Of 30 teams promoted, thirteen have gone straight back down.

Elimated after	1 Year	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Teams	13	6**	1*	2*	1*	1	2*	0	0	1*	3***

* Denotes number of teams still in Premier League.

A "Survival Analysis" on such a small sample size would be ineffective given the group loses nearly 50% of it's members after a first year relegation. But were we to examine how many clubs had a five-year survival rate, exactly one promoted club in three stays in the division for five years or more. That means of the 21 teams who could have been in the Premier League for five years by this season (ie. all those teams promoted 2007 or before), seven have survived that length of time.

However, should we withdraw those clubs arriving B.R. (before Roman (Abramovich), who for better or worse changed football forever with his petro-roubles) - that number drops slightly to 26.67%. However, this also includes the recently relegated clubs West Ham United and Portsmouth, who nearly bankrupted themselves with exorbitant wages, the global financial crisis, multiple court appearances and other sundry expenses.

This proves once again that Stoke manager Tony Pulis is correct in his thinking: that three seasons of consolidation should be enough to establish oneself.  With prudent investment - leading to crucial squad refreshment - Premier League status can be retained.  It's all so simple, isn't it?

Not really.  A team must make the choice to thrive and perhaps risk financial crisis (cf. Portsmouth - one FA Cup for debt so large it makes Greece smirk) or simply enjoy an EPL existence, like current relegation favourites Wigan Athletic.  The chasm between first and second divisions hasn't been this great in some time, if ever.  

Even the glory days of Promotion at the turn of the millennium weren't as straightforward as it would seem.  While Bolton Wanderers operated on a shoestring and Sam Allardyce's Route-1 football, Fulham and Manchester City have both benefited from the largesse of a financial benefactor.  As Everton's Bill Kenwright would attest, it's no longer enough to just get to the league and try your chances. 

The two promotion successes of recent years - Sunderland and Stoke City - followed the same model; backed by owners Ellis Short and Peter Coates' combination of fiscal prudency and healthy hip pockets. Along with Wolves, whose finances are also healthy, this trio look likely to maintain this one-in-three average of promoted sides remaining in the division at the expense of smaller clubs and hamstrung owners.