Showing posts with label Wolves. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wolves. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Where to now for Wolves?

Like bookies who pay out early, and despite the fact mathematical possibility that Wolverhampton’s three-year stint in the Premier League can still be extended, it’s time look at the men in orange and work out what steps they should take as they prepare for a non-Premiership existence.

  1. Distance yourselves quickly from panic-hiring Terry Connor
“TC” has been the subject of almost equal amounts of mirth and pity in his stint as Wolves’ manager – he has been the archetypal “deer in headlights” and patently not the inspirational gaffer the club needed to avoid a humiliating slip.  It’s now too late, and despite several years’ worth of good management, Wolverhampton Wanderers are now known as a club less lupine and more headless chicken.

The problem is this doesn’t reflect so poorly on Connor, as he is so obviously a poor fit.  It exhibits a reckless lack of foresight from owner and administrators, while offering Alan Curbishley the position for six months – multiple times – displays criminal naievete.  As leaders, CEO Jez Moxey and owner Steve Morgan’s role is to create and implement the club’s broader vision – unfortunately for Wolves, their actions were the epitome of myopia.

A full and frank admission of culpability and a blatant search for the best available manager (Steve Bruce?  Lee Clark?) would go a long way to restoring administrative credibility in the eyes of Wolves’ supporters.

  1. Employ a manager who’s not Terry Connor
When Mick McCarthy was fired in mid-February, club Moxey and Morgan pleaded the case for an exhaustive search which would reap an experienced manager able to exhort the playing staff into missing the drop.  They flirted with several names, took what seemed like aeons to select a boss (but was in reality eleven days) and ended up promoting Connor, McCarthy’s 2IC, who cut an increasingly inept, befuddled and morose figure on the sideline. 

Tony Adams has a new challenger for the title of Premiership’s Worst Ever manager.

Bruce has form at obtaining both promotion and getting sides to stick in the Premiership.  Curbishley’s star has somewhat faded since his glory days nearly a decade ago at Charlton Athletic, while Lee Clark oversaw a dubious forty-something game undefeated streak at Huddersfield Town.  Without paying significant reparations, these are the three most likely candidates for the Wolves’ position.

It bears considering Michael Appleton as a left-field candidate, who has had a reasonable term as Portsmouth manager in very difficult circumstances.  This is of course pure speculation and he is still an inexperienced (but well-regarded) gaffer, but as Pompey’s situation is still critical his services could well be available at year’s end.

  1. Work out who stays and who goes
This may end up being one of the easier parts of the job at hand – Wolves have players who are able to perform at Premier League level who will be desirable to ascendant or rebuilding clubs. 

The first step which often accompanies relegation from the top division is trimming a corpulent wage bill.  This occupation is helped by the fact that most of Wolves’ best players won’t tolerate a season (or more) in the Championship and will want to leave. 

Examples of prime sale targets include the dischordant Roger Johnson, the professionally-reckless Karl Henry, the efficient Steven Fletcher and the somehow-still-sought-after Kevin Doyle.  Keeper Wayne Hennessey (although injured) could still bring in some coin – and backup Dorus de Vries is more than capable at Championship level.

Those to look at keeping would be the underrated Stephen Ward, central defender Christophe Berra, midfielders Michael Kightly, David Edwards and one of Stephen Hunt or Jamie O’Hara.  Obviously with transfer market flux these are simply guesses based on nothing more than research and common sense.

  1. Refurbish a jaded and one-dimensional squad with class from the lower divisions
Norwich, Blackpool, Brighton and Swansea have all proved over the past two years that there are quality players available at cost price in the second and third tiers of English football.  Norwich’s best side features almost no players who were purchased from Premier League; Swansea’s entire squad was compiled for less than 12 million pounds.

Although he’s owned by rivals WBA, striker Chris Wood might be available for the right price, as could Derby defender John Brayford, Watford youngster Sean Murray, Peterborough’s Lee Tomlin, Blackpool revelation Thomas Ince or even Bristol City’s wannabe-Socceroo Neil Kilkenny.  The investment, likely to be significant by Championship standards, could well pay long-term dividends as they did for Reading.

Friday, August 12, 2011

Survival of the fittest (wealthiest?)


Poetic - sometimes, if we're feeling really good. Evocative? Occasionally. Artistic - hardly. But as we mentioned on Wednesday, the graphic below is about as artistic as Balanced Sports get.

click graphic to enlarge
It plots the survival rates of teams promoted to the Premiership across the past decade and tells a stark tale. While Blackburn, Bolton and Fulham have survived - some would even say thrived - at the top level, the tales of greatest success are to be found in the early part of the past decade when they were joined by Manchester City, Portsmouth, West Ham and Wigan in establishing themselves as Premier League entities.

Of 30 teams promoted, thirteen have gone straight back down.

Elimated after
1 Year
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Teams
13
6**
1*
2*
1*
1
2*
0
0
1*
3***
* Denotes number of teams still in Premier League.

A "Survival Analysis" on such a small sample size would be ineffective given the group loses nearly 50% of it's members after a first year relegation. But were we to examine how many clubs had a five-year survival rate, exactly one promoted club in three stays in the division for five years or more. That means of the 21 teams who could have been in the Premier League for five years by this season (ie. all those teams promoted 2007 or before), seven have survived that length of time.

However, should we withdraw those clubs arriving B.R. (before Roman (Abramovich), who for better or worse changed football forever with his petro-roubles) - that number drops slightly to 26.67%. However, this also includes the recently relegated clubs West Ham United and Portsmouth, who nearly bankrupted themselves with exorbitant wages, the global financial crisis, multiple court appearances and other sundry expenses.

This proves once again that Stoke manager Tony Pulis is correct in his thinking: that three seasons of consolidation should be enough to establish oneself.  With prudent investment - leading to crucial squad refreshment - Premier League status can be retained.  It's all so simple, isn't it?

Not really.  A team must make the choice to thrive and perhaps risk financial crisis (cf. Portsmouth - one FA Cup for debt so large it makes Greece smirk) or simply enjoy an EPL existence, like current relegation favourites Wigan Athletic.  The chasm between first and second divisions hasn't been this great in some time, if ever.  

Even the glory days of Promotion at the turn of the millennium weren't as straightforward as it would seem.  While Bolton Wanderers operated on a shoestring and Sam Allardyce's Route-1 football, Fulham and Manchester City have both benefited from the largesse of a financial benefactor.  As Everton's Bill Kenwright would attest, it's no longer enough to just get to the league and try your chances. 

The two promotion successes of recent years - Sunderland and Stoke City - followed the same model; backed by owners Ellis Short and Peter Coates' combination of fiscal prudency and healthy hip pockets. Along with Wolves, whose finances are also healthy, this trio look likely to maintain this one-in-three average of promoted sides remaining in the division at the expense of smaller clubs and hamstrung owners.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

English Premier League Season Preview, part 2

Newcastle: New beginnings, or same old same old?

More than any other club, the fortunes of Newcastle United depend on their summer signings: Sylvain Marveaux, Yohan Cabaye, Demba Ba and this season's "like a new signing", Hatem Ben Arfa. The dressing room culture remains awful - as evidenced by Jose Enrique and Joey Barton's apocalyptic tweets - while one wonders if the Magpies have leaders enough to inspire focus among the troops. With Mike Ashley allegedly breaking promises left and right (the last of which were to extend Kevin Nolan's contract and to re-invest all of the ₤35 million they got for Andy Carroll), it seems another troubled season on Tyneside which could see them finish in the top half or sixteenth.

Norwich: Are they already preparing for life back in the Championship?
Paul Lambert and the key Wes Hoolahan
Paul Lambert has brought in several youngsters - Anthony Pilkington, Elliott Bennett and James Vaughan - for significant monies and is banking on their exuberance and pace for a successful season. Or a double-dip into the Championship a la West Brom and the promise of a stronger resultant outfit. While the head says the Canaries will mimic Blackpool's 2011 likeability, it also says they'll probably also do well early and later slide into relegation.

QPR: How important is Adel Taarabt?
How fake is Steven Harper's hair? (Look at the photos, not the crazy political stuff) How vital is Carey Price to a successful Canadiens season? Neil Warnock's Moroccan gem Taarabt has rammed home his importance to the Rs with every magical goal, every startling dribble move and each impressive assist. He scored or created 49.3% of QPR's goals last year and with only DJ Campbell, Kieron Dyer and Jay Bothroyd reinforcing the attackers, will need to reproduce his second-tier form on the big stage. If he can't do it - or is sold to PSG as rumoured - look at QPR like Warnock's 2006-07 brave-but-unsuccessful Sheffield United squad. Only with less talent.

Stoke City: Europa League or The Next Step?
Stoke City have made few signings despite their first European bow in a dog's age. Standing pat amidst a long-time lack of 15-goal strikers, perhaps the greatest question facing gaffer Tony Pulis is whether they can compete on both home and Continental fronts. With sound investment they could push for a 7-10 EPL finish and consequent Europa League qualification but to do so with a small squad could jeopardise their chances of making continental noise this year. Plus, there's no guarantee they could achieve such a high finish, so fans should encourage Tony to mimic Fulham and give the Europa League everything. With the scarcity of talent in the lower reaches of the division and a formidable home advantage, the Potters should avoid a relegation scrap.

courtesy: swanseacityafc.com
With recent England calls to his U-21 brethren Jordan Henderson, Andy Carroll, Jack Wilshere, Danny Welbeck and now Tom Cleverley, Scott Sinclair could be forgiven for feeling left out. Arguably more accomplished at club level than all but Wilshere, he's also at a much smaller team after failing to get regular chances at Chelsea. With pace to spare and clinical finishing skills, he could keep Stewart Downing, James Milner and Ashley Young looking over their shoulder on the left of England's midfield. It's unlikely, but if he plays well and moves to a bigger club or the Swans stay in the EPL, he may make his full Three Lions debut within a year or two. (Matt Jarvis has played for England for crying out loud! So have Francis Jeffers, Dave Nugent and Jay Bothroyd!)

Sunderland: Europe this season or next?
In a recent post, we argued Sunderland were pushing for Europe with the purchase of South Korean striker Ji Dong-Won, United veterans John O'Shea and Wes Brown, youngster Connor Wickham and last season's revelation Stephane Sessegnon. Craig Gardner could be the driving central force (who was supposed to be Darron Gibson) connecting an experienced backline with promising forwards. With this cast of characters, they should be aiming for a top-eight finish, perhaps replacing Fulham, Everton and Villa who finished above them last term. Bruce's squads are known for mid-season slumps, however, so this infusion of talent needs to stay "up" for the whole year.

Tottenham: Buying or selling?
With Chelsea - and, earlier, Man United - chasing wantaway midfielder Luka Modric and sums of 35 million bandied about, it's hard to see how Spurs' chairman Daniel Levy could resist. No matter how much 'Arry Redknapp may want him to. Modric is an excellent player who deserves Champions' League football, but also a classy guy who while wanting to leave won't kick up too much of a stink. If Spurs hold fast until January, they may be able to demand a premium (cf. Fernando Torres & Andy Carroll) if they look like missing the Champions' League next season.

West Brom: Is Shane Long worth ₤8 million?
courtesy: sportydesktops.com
Strikers jumping from Championship to Premiership for premium prices have a chequered record. Long's former Royal teammate Kevin Doyle has been a handful for Wolves but has hardly set the scoring charts alight. Dave Nugent? Pah. DJ Campbell did well for freewheeling Blackpool, but Michael Chopra failed for Sunderland. In this case, the Baggies urgently need a hitman and Long is young, quick and strong enough to do well at the Hawthorns. ₤8 million is a lot of money, but Roy Hodgson is working with a better lineup than during his first Fulham year and should have enough to avoid the relegation scrap. Long could be the player that moves WBA up a level to challenge for the top half, so is worth the cash.
(Long actually signed after publication for what's thought to be an initial 4.5 million with 3.5 million in add-ons).

Wigan: Will the beautiful football be worth it when you're in the Championship, Roberto Martinez?
Harsh, given Martinez is hamstrung by a small market, smaller attendances, a friendly-but-thrifty chairman and a spotty transfer record. For each of his seasons in Wigan, the Latics have been tipped for relegation but Martinez has kept them up playing attractive football. This year could be his undoing as Charles N'Zogbia has departed with only goalkeeper Ali Al-Habsi to replace him. Twentieth position beckons and with relegation the club will lose Hugo Rodallega, Al-Habsi, the precocious James McCarthy and ... wait - who else that matters do Wigan have? The club Dave Whelan and Paul Jewell raised through four divisions could begin a slip back down.

Wolves: What's the over/under on the number of smiles Mick McCarthy will crack this season?
4.5. Mick nearly cracked a smile in the eighty-ninth minute at Old Trafford last year but wisely opted against it as United scored the winner only moments later. This was the story of the season for Wolves as they fought the good fight only to lose gut-wrenchingly many times. With his side faltering at the last hurdle so often, he couldn't be blamed for not smiling. Reinforced by Roger Johnson and the permanent signing of Jamie O'Hara, they're another team which is hard to pick: anything that's not relegation should be considered a win; above fifteenth would mark progress.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Goal Difference crucial for Premiership survival

The relegation battle this term in the Premiership has become increasingly intense. With Manchester United seemly stumbling towards the title as Arsenal and Manchester City reel off-course, the bottom of the table proves now to be the more intriguing sub-competition; a race no club or fan wants to win.


As we examined last week which Championship clubs from may take their place among English football's elite, the scrap for who replaces them in the second tier is in full flight. Seemingly European candidates two months ago, Sunderland are dropping like an action-movie elevator, while Blackpool's astonishing start to the season came undone at about exactly the same time as Charlie Adam's Liverpool move was rejected. On the other hand, Wolves have proved the most plucky of all the teams in the relegation zone yet still prop up the table, hit hard by injury to target-man Kevin Doyle.


What confuses this situation more than in years past is that there are no "certainties" for the drop. Last year Portsmouth failed to break twenty points (thanks among other things to a nine-point deduction for going into administration) and in 2008, Derby County broke Sunderland's record from 2006 for the fewest points in a season. There's no such luck for clubs hovering outside the zone this year - this season there are no easybeats. The entire bottom half of the Premiership table sits within one "six-pointer" of the drop zone.


When comparing this season to the previous six, there really is no precedent to the tightness in the relegation battle we see this year. In every other year, with the exception of 2009, there has been one club cut adrift at the bottom of the league. In 2009, that club was West Bromwich Albion, who rallied mildly at the tail-end of the season to finish with the same points tally as nineteenth-placed Middlesbrough.


Another trend over recent years has been that the tighter the relegation battle has become, the more impact Goal Difference has on which clubs survive. In 2007 and 2008, eight clubs each year finished the season within six points of relegation - or one crucial win against a fellow straggler. Excepting Derby County in 2008 (who finished the season with 11 points and an all time goal difference record of -69), it's easy to see that the average Goal Difference of relegation-threatened clubs decreases as the number of clubs "in trouble" increases. We've defined "threatened" as a club within six points of the drop zone.


Season

Clubs within 6 points of relegation zone

Average Goal Difference of threatened clubs

2010-11 (5 or 6 games remain)

10

-13.7

2009-10

5

-34.8

2008-09

5

-24.8

2007-08

8

-36.67 (incl. Derby County)

-18.71 (excl. Derby Cty)

2006-07

8

-21.38

2005-06

4

-29.25

2004-05

5

-23.6

Derby County can be excluded because they are a statistical outlier - their season-long goal difference a whole 60% worse than any club's during the past seven years. Since they lost almost every game (season record 1-8-29) we can assume everyone took points off them. This assumption may not necessarily be correct, but statistically speaking, it is safe.

As you can see, the tighter a relegation battle gets, the tighter clubs tend to become - with the possible exception of Ian Holloway's Blackpool. If more club become involved in a relegation battle, it leads to lower average goal differences across those threatened teams. This season has produced another statistical anomaly which is interesting (but not very interesting) - Mark Hughes' Fulham are the only "threatened" club in seven years to boast a positive goal difference (+1).


Therefore, we can say safely with approximately 85% of the season complete, the 2010-11 goal differences figures are (on average) probably going to be the lowest of the past seven years. Extrapolated, these mean figures could be as low as -15.9 over the course of the entire season. If we use Goal Difference as a marker of how intense a relegation battle is, then this relegation battle is (statistically) about 20% more intense than the previous most intense one in 2008, involving Birmingham, Reading, Fulham and Bolton.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Waiting for the phone to ring

With his sterling display against Manchester City on the weekend, several pundits have tipped Wolves' winger Matt Jarvis as a possible inclusion in Fabio Capello's next England squad, which is to play France in a friendly later this month. Other possible call-ups could go to young Gunner Jack Wilshere, Sunderland central midfielder Jordan Henderson and Newcastle's hulking forward Andy Carroll.

Jarvis is a speedy right-sided winger who's proved a success in the Premier League despite humble beginnings as a trainee at Championship side (then relegated to League One) Gillingham. He was an essential part of their side and was sold to Wolves in 2007. He became a first-team regular at the Midlands club and Wolves clinched automatic promotion to the Premiership after his second year at Molineux. Unusually for a promoted club, Wolves' wing positions were thought to be a position of relative strength, but it wasn't Jarvis tipped to wow Premier League audiences, rather his left-wing counterpart "Twice Nightly" Michael Kightly.

Kightly has spent much of Wolverhampton's two premiership campaigns sidelined by injury and the ball has fallen at the feet of the Jarvis. Who's run with it. And run with it. Then crossed it. And kept running. Once tipped by the Gillingham chairman Paul Scally to play for England by age twenty-four, the media is now suggesting that Scally's skills as a prophet were bang-on - Jarvis is precisely that age. Fast - though not lightning quick - and extremely technically proficient, he's no doubt been more effective this term than some of his rivals for an England wide position like Aaron Lennon or Shaun Wright-Phillips.

But can a player from a team so thoroughly immersed in the relegation struggle really force Capello - a man who admittedly prefers the tried and true options - into selecting him for the Three Lions? His ability, dedication, form and game says yes: few wide players have his endeavour or technical correctness. Unfortunately though, he has four things counting against him: his name (or lack thereof) when compared to the virtually invisible Wright-Phillips; he is short a yard of pace when compared to the blistering pace of a Walcott or Lennon and finally, although he's not short on influence, Jarvis probably simply doesn't have the same tricks as Adam Johnson.

The fourth reason is Wolves' current tough situation. They sit mired near the foot of the EPL table, even following some admirable performances unrewarded with wins or even draws. Perhaps Saturday's win against City may change that. Indeed, what may sway Capello in Jarvis's favour is the surety that he would offer an England team. The manager would know 100% what he'd get from the right side when Matt Jarvis played that wing and that predictable endeavour isn't something with which Capello's England has been generously endowed.

If it is time to re-stock the England cupboard with new talents, then Capello could do worse than looking around the Premiership for players that he knows will respond to the call with a performance - it's long been a curse for England that their superstars have failed to perform with the same vigour in white as they do for their clubs. Bringing in new, fresh faces like Jarvis and Tyneside Bad Boy Carroll could prove the difference between a staid, boring squad at Euro 2012 (with a bog-standard English second round exit) and a team which can really throw a cat amongst some Spanish and German pigeons.