- Distance yourselves quickly from panic-hiring Terry Connor
- Employ a manager who’s not Terry Connor
- Work out who stays and who goes
- Refurbish a jaded and one-dimensional squad with class from the lower divisions
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Elimated after | 1 Year | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
Teams | 13 | 6** | 1* | 2* | 1* | 1 | 2* | 0 | 0 | 1* | 3*** |
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Paul Lambert and the key Wes Hoolahan |
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courtesy: swanseacityafc.com |
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courtesy: sportydesktops.com |
The relegation battle this term in the Premiership has become increasingly intense. With Manchester United seemly stumbling towards the title as Arsenal and Manchester City reel off-course, the bottom of the table proves now to be the more intriguing sub-competition; a race no club or fan wants to win.
As we examined last week which Championship clubs from may take their place among English football's elite, the scrap for who replaces them in the second tier is in full flight. Seemingly European candidates two months ago, Sunderland are dropping like an action-movie elevator, while Blackpool's astonishing start to the season came undone at about exactly the same time as Charlie Adam's Liverpool move was rejected. On the other hand, Wolves have proved the most plucky of all the teams in the relegation zone yet still prop up the table, hit hard by injury to target-man Kevin Doyle.
What confuses this situation more than in years past is that there are no "certainties" for the drop. Last year Portsmouth failed to break twenty points (thanks among other things to a nine-point deduction for going into administration) and in 2008, Derby County broke Sunderland's record from 2006 for the fewest points in a season. There's no such luck for clubs hovering outside the zone this year - this season there are no easybeats. The entire bottom half of the Premiership table sits within one "six-pointer" of the drop zone.
When comparing this season to the previous six, there really is no precedent to the tightness in the relegation battle we see this year. In every other year, with the exception of 2009, there has been one club cut adrift at the bottom of the league. In 2009, that club was West Bromwich Albion, who rallied mildly at the tail-end of the season to finish with the same points tally as nineteenth-placed Middlesbrough.
Another trend over recent years has been that the tighter the relegation battle has become, the more impact Goal Difference has on which clubs survive. In 2007 and 2008, eight clubs each year finished the season within six points of relegation - or one crucial win against a fellow straggler. Excepting Derby County in 2008 (who finished the season with 11 points and an all time goal difference record of -69), it's easy to see that the average Goal Difference of relegation-threatened clubs decreases as the number of clubs "in trouble" increases. We've defined "threatened" as a club within six points of the drop zone.
Season | Clubs within 6 points of relegation zone | Average Goal Difference of threatened clubs |
2010-11 (5 or 6 games remain) | 10 | -13.7 |
2009-10 | 5 | -34.8 |
2008-09 | 5 | -24.8 |
2007-08 | 8 | -36.67 (incl. Derby County) -18.71 (excl. Derby Cty) |
2006-07 | 8 | -21.38 |
2005-06 | 4 | -29.25 |
2004-05 | 5 | -23.6 |
Derby County can be excluded because they are a statistical outlier - their season-long goal difference a whole 60% worse than any club's during the past seven years. Since they lost almost every game (season record 1-8-29) we can assume everyone took points off them. This assumption may not necessarily be correct, but statistically speaking, it is safe.
As you can see, the tighter a relegation battle gets, the tighter clubs tend to become - with the possible exception of Ian Holloway's Blackpool. If more club become involved in a relegation battle, it leads to lower average goal differences across those threatened teams. This season has produced another statistical anomaly which is interesting (but not very interesting) - Mark Hughes' Fulham are the only "threatened" club in seven years to boast a positive goal difference (+1).
Therefore, we can say safely with approximately 85% of the season complete, the 2010-11 goal differences figures are (on average) probably going to be the lowest of the past seven years. Extrapolated, these mean figures could be as low as -15.9 over the course of the entire season. If we use Goal Difference as a marker of how intense a relegation battle is, then this relegation battle is (statistically) about 20% more intense than the previous most intense one in 2008, involving Birmingham, Reading, Fulham and Bolton.
With his sterling display against Manchester City on the weekend, several pundits have tipped Wolves' winger Matt Jarvis as a possible inclusion in Fabio Capello's next England squad, which is to play France in a friendly later this month. Other possible call-ups could go to young Gunner Jack Wilshere, Sunderland central midfielder Jordan Henderson and Newcastle's hulking forward Andy Carroll.
Jarvis is a speedy right-sided winger who's proved a success in the Premier League despite humble beginnings as a trainee at Championship side (then relegated to League One) Gillingham. He was an essential part of their side and was sold to Wolves in 2007. He became a first-team regular at the Midlands club and Wolves clinched automatic promotion to the Premiership after his second year at Molineux. Unusually for a promoted club, Wolves' wing positions were thought to be a position of relative strength, but it wasn't Jarvis tipped to wow Premier League audiences, rather his left-wing counterpart "Twice Nightly" Michael Kightly.
Kightly has spent much of Wolverhampton's two premiership campaigns sidelined by injury and the ball has fallen at the feet of the Jarvis. Who's run with it. And run with it. Then crossed it. And kept running. Once tipped by the Gillingham chairman Paul Scally to play for England by age twenty-four, the media is now suggesting that Scally's skills as a prophet were bang-on - Jarvis is precisely that age. Fast - though not lightning quick - and extremely technically proficient, he's no doubt been more effective this term than some of his rivals for an England wide position like Aaron Lennon or Shaun Wright-Phillips.
But can a player from a team so thoroughly immersed in the relegation struggle really force Capello - a man who admittedly prefers the tried and true options - into selecting him for the Three Lions? His ability, dedication, form and game says yes: few wide players have his endeavour or technical correctness. Unfortunately though, he has four things counting against him: his name (or lack thereof) when compared to the virtually invisible Wright-Phillips; he is short a yard of pace when compared to the blistering pace of a Walcott or Lennon and finally, although he's not short on influence, Jarvis probably simply doesn't have the same tricks as Adam Johnson.
The fourth reason is Wolves' current tough situation. They sit mired near the foot of the EPL table, even following some admirable performances unrewarded with wins or even draws. Perhaps Saturday's win against City may change that. Indeed, what may sway Capello in Jarvis's favour is the surety that he would offer an England team. The manager would know 100% what he'd get from the right side when Matt Jarvis played that wing and that predictable endeavour isn't something with which Capello's England has been generously endowed.
If it is time to re-stock the England cupboard with new talents, then Capello could do worse than looking around the Premiership for players that he knows will respond to the call with a performance - it's long been a curse for England that their superstars have failed to perform with the same vigour in white as they do for their clubs. Bringing in new, fresh faces like Jarvis and Tyneside Bad Boy Carroll could prove the difference between a staid, boring squad at Euro 2012 (with a bog-standard English second round exit) and a team which can really throw a cat amongst some Spanish and German pigeons.