Three things: Handshakes are still important

Three things we noticed from the Premier League this weekend:

Handshakes are still important

Queens Park Rangers fronted up against Chelsea – and John Terry – in the West London derby. In the pre-match handshake line, Anton Ferdinand, who accused Terry of racially abusing him on the pitch last season, refused the proffered hands of the former England captain and left-back Ashley Cole. Next week, Northwestern rivals Liverpool and Manchester United face off in the first match since Luis Suarez refused to shake Patrice Evra's hand.

Handshakes still matter. Just ask Mark Hughes, who's gotten into rumbles about the tradition with practically everyone.

PFA President and handshake advocate Clarke Carlisle says handshakes are “a statement of intent to play the game in a certain manner befitting a professional”. In a perfect world, this would be so – however, we live in a football society where tribalism runs rampant and songs about tragic events have become so commonplace that managers and administrators rightly condemn their own fans for singing them. The game has often become more important than basic civility. The game's landscape is now so merciless that the handshake feels meaningless, a relic from past times.

Ideally, handshakes – gesture that perhaps began when two parties used their weapon-hand to greet an opponent, rather than kill him – would actually mean something – that the game isn't worth some costs. Hopefully, some footballers still think that way. However, in today's dog-eat-dog football culture, expecting players to make a honourable motions before a game is sadly a stretch. The stakes – and competitive desire – are just too great.

Berbatov's wages are (probably) worth it

Dimitar Berbatov made his first start for new club Fulham on Saturday and led the Cottagers to a win, scoring twice against the previously undefeated West Bromwich Albion. Despite sharing the league's Golden Boot with Carlos Tevez in 2010, the Bulgarian never appeared totally settled at Manchester United; this was partly because Sir Alex Ferguson rarely trusted him leading the line in big games and because his style is far more suited to a two-man front.

Fulham entered the season in a state of flux. Forwards Andy Johnson, Moussa Dembele and Clint Dempsey departed during the summer, replaced by Berbatov and Hugo Rodallega. The highly-salaried Berbatov has immediately shown his class and efficacy in the 4-4-2; paired with Rodallega – the archetypal runner lacking end product (the Colombian averages a Premier League goal every 5½ games and takes 100 shots to register six goals), Berbatov and his understated ability to hold the ball up looks crucial to a re-built West London side.

The "new" Dembele - last year's Costa Rican big buy, Bryan Ruiz - should have ample forward options to pass to - Berbatov's silky scoring and Rodallega's natural athleticism should keep the Cottagers firmly in mid-table.

Southampton need to work it out at the back

They can put goals on the board against the best teams in the country. They've got pretty fair trust fund backing them in the transfer market. They raided Scotland for the best player in that country. Rickie Lambert celebrates a goal better than anyone in creation.

Still, Southampton sit winless at the bottom of the Premier League table. Part of this can be ascribed to their dauting fixture list: they opened the season against Manchester City, Wigan Athletic, Manchester United, Arsenal. Despite boasting more exciting talent than their promoted brethren – and, arguably, more total talent – the Saints have made a habit of conceding, shopping six to Arsenal over the weekend. To make things worse, the Gunners only scored four as Nathan Clyne and the calamitous Jos Hooiveld both put the ball into their own net.

Despite looking better than average in midfield and attack, the Saints will be relegated if they don't fix their defence. The talent simply hasn't stacked up yet. Maybe it never will.

Ian Holloway's Blackpool – and Steve Kean's Blackburn – proved conclusively that in the lower reaches of the Premiership, attack must always be balanced by defence. It's not that the Saints defenders don't try, but appear lacking in class and even perhaps Premier League ability.

Alternative XI: 2012 Bosman Transfers

Even deeply embroiled in a recession, football fans expect their respective clubs to restructure their playing squads during the offseason. This summer is likely to be remarkable because it features a major tournament; this befuddles the break's early weeks as players inflate their purchase prices with tantalising glimpses of form or potential.

A nearly pathological desire for value for money now permeates football at all levels. Players and transactions are judged early, often and viciously. This means the best transfers a club can make are often those which cost nothing: a Bosman move, where players become free agents after their current contract expires. The full list of Premiership players available “on a Bosman” is posted at Goal.com or transfermarkt.co.uk, although both need updating.

So here's the big question: could we frugally build a squad capable of surviving using players acquired only via Bosman moves?

Firstly, we should look for strength down back. I'd look no further than Fulham's Mark Schwarzer to start a team with – partly because he's still, at 39, one of the best shot-stoppers in the Premiership; and also because he's my favourite Socceroo of all time. His closest competition comes from Jussi Jaaskelainen, who has fallen behind Adam Bogdan at Bolton for no apparent reason.

The best defenders available include Aston Villa's Carlos Cuellar, Jose Boswinga of Chelsea, perma-crocked Ledley King and his erstwhile partner Jonathon Woodgate, who's now at Stoke City. Unfortunately, this list includes an criminally overpaid full-back and two centre-halves renowned for legs made from glass, so if it's Value for Money we're looking for, it's time to search for alternate options.

The classy-but-brutal Zdynek Grygera is available, but coming off knee surgery. The man he was ostensibly to replace, Stephen Kelly, looks likely to leave Craven Cottage as well; Maynor Figueroa was thought to be a wonderful left-sided defender as recently a Roberto Martinez ago, while Clint Hill and Fitz Hall have featured intermittently for QPR this term.

In terms of durability, skill and cost, however I'd suggest lumping for a foursome of Cuellar, Figueroa, Bolton's Gretar Steinsson and finally, Everton's Atlas Sylvain Distin.

As both Swansea and Norwich Cities have proved this season, a competitive midfield is crucial in not only saving games, but winning them. The best centre-mids available include Mohamed Diame and Jordi Gomez of Wigan, Mahamadou Diarra of Fulham (who's likely to see his deal extended, and therefore ineligible), Newcastle's Danny Guthrie and Fulham OAP Danny Murphy. Murphy can still thoroughly influence a game, so despite his 35 year-old legs I'm selecting him alongside Diame for a combative and effective pairing.

The decisions out wide are made simpler by the presence of Blackburn prodigy Junior Hoilett, who walks into the wide-left position (even though he naturally belongs on the opposite side). After kicking the tires twice before deciding Florent Malouda isn't worth the sticker price and that Martin Petrov's form has slipped too far since his debut Bolton season, the man I want for the right is Cameroon megalith Somen Tchoyi. It's a relief to have these two available because other options aren't exciting at all: Akos Buzsaky, Peter Lovenkrands, Hogan Ephraim and Jerome Thomas.

Up front, we'll surprise by signing the cheap (but perhaps litigious) Ryan Noble, who has impressed every judge but his managers at Sunderland. He'll pair Hugo Rodallega, who this time last year led Wigan from a fate worse than relegation into another year (or more) of Premier League football. We'll have to rely on pace for incision, rather than height or tricks, but this duo comes significantly cheaper than “name” forwards Andrei Arshavin, Salomon Kalou and Didier Drogba. Other options include Stoke City's Ricardo Fuller, the desir'd Andy Johnson (again of Fulham).

Squad (4-4-2): Schwarzer, Steinsson, Cuellar, Distin, Figueroa; Tchoyi, Murphy, Diame, Hoilett; Noble, Rodallega.

Total weekly wage budget estimate: ₤300, 000.

The Dempsey Dilemma

courtesy: mlssoccer.com

Clint Dempsey is having another fantastic – and well-documented – season for Fulham. In fact, his conspicuous excellence for three successive managers in concert with a slowly expiring contact (June 2013) mean England's most scurrilous have started to chirrup about a potential move to a “bigger” club.

Is he good enough? Can he deliver in the Champions League?

In all honesty, it's unlikely to matter.

The simple fact is that Clint Dempsey may move on from Fulham, but it is hardly likely to be for a significant fee. He is caught in a quandary where his age (29) and skill-set (floating attacker) make him cute to suitors – the quote-unquote “bigger” clubs – but not that attractive.

That said, not ₤12-15 million attractive, which is a sum nearing that for which Fulham are likely to ask.

The Whites will have to ask for that significant price for many reasons. Because he's been their most potent attacking threat in nearly half a century and debatably their best player (not wash-up) since Johnny Haynes. Dempsey, rapping an' all, is one of – if not the – most marketable Fulham players and continues a great recent Fulham tradition of attracting a rather large market across the Atlantic.

And he provided the goal or assist for 49% of all Fulham's Premiership scores this year. That level of contribution is amongst Europe's elite.

Yet despite the plaudits and numbers, Dempsey's signature will hardly going to inspire fan confidence for a side that spends big on him. “Big” club fans to want reputations as well as proven history – witness the negative reaction to the solid Mikel Arteta signing for Arsenal. Spending the kind of cash Fulham would demand for a guy who would in effect become a bit-part player, doesn't look like good business. This is even more true considering the transfer-induced boost in Dempsey's salary, would be accompanied by occasional games rather than the week-in, week-out football which allowed him to blossom at Craven Cottage.

Should he hope for a move, “Deuce” can however rely on one redeeming factor. Despite football's Moneyball manifesto dying an inglorious Red death, there is one statistic which regularly translates to success: proven goalscoring ability. Papiss Demba Cisse, Demba Ba and Yakubu have elegantly proven this season that the ability to score goals at a top European league (especially in the Premiership) is worth the investment.

Despite this, it's hard to see Clint Dempsey leaving West London this summer. While he could perhaps thicken his wallet, it's hard to see any club willing to pay him and a likely upscale transfer fee.

Because everyone else does it: Deadline Day winners and losers

Winners

Barcelona: Don't they always win? Even when selling good players, they come out on top.  They got money for players they were unlikely to use much in Bojan and Oriol Romeu, yet have the option of re-purchasing both if they succeed at their new clubs. With Roma's Giallorossi now hoping to model themselves on the Catalans, Bojan could be a big success. With Raul Meireles signing as well, Romeu won't get the same playing time at Chelsea but is a very different - and thus more valuable - player to the pass-and-move merchants Barca habitually produce.
 
Roma: After years of financial peril, the red half of the Eternal City suddenly has a revitalised squad sporting the likes of Simon Kjaer, FM2011 star Fernando Gago, the aforementioned Bojan and most interestingly, perennial next big thing Miralem Pjanic. While neither team from Milan will be sweating on a Roma title challenge, they should have the quality to take points off the best this year.

QPR: To nab Joey Barton and Shaun Wright-Phillips within a week of the transfer window closing means their relegation is no longer a nailed-on certainty but only quite likely. Barton is one of the top ten central midfielders in the country, while SWP is perhaps the most underrated overrated player in England. Anton Ferdinand could prove, like his dietary habits, feast or famine in central defence.

Fulham: Martin Jol poached Zdenek Grygera on a free from Juventus to help shore up a backline which has been effective in Europe but awful in the Premiership. They also managed to secure ₤10.6 million-worth of Costa Rica's Bryan Ruiz from FC Twente. Ruiz is so good he could cause carnage in front of goal - and in nightclubs - over the whole country.

Losers

Newcastle: Twelve months ago, Andy Carroll was the hottest property in England. Now, the ₤35 million is gathering lint under Mike Ashley's pillow. They needed a striker, nearly got Modibo Maiga in real trouble from Sochaux, were beaten to the punch on Ruiz and also didn't replace their departed second-best goalscorer, Kevin Nolan, or best creator, Barton. Pity an impressive collection of midfield talent with no-one Shola Ameobi to pass to.

Spurs: They got Scott Parker, and retained an unhappy Modric, but couldn't reinforce an ageing and leaky defence. Daniel Levy's stones for keeping a malcontent player (albeit one with five years of his contract to run) are admirable, as is manager Harry Redknapp's fantasy world where Emanuel Adebayor won't simultaneously explode and implode for a whole season. Lassana Diarra would have helped them.

Luka Modric: Wants to play Champions' League football and as a player deserves to do so. Perhaps though, he isn't as mentally strong as you'd like, after offering to withdraw his services from last weekend's match against Manchester City. This has lost him the respect of many Spurs fans, the chance of a natural resource-fuelled pay hike and football at the highest club level. It's safe to say his gamble - if it was one - backfired.

Nottingham Forest: A pre-season contender for the Championship title suddenly finds themselves needing to outperform simply to tread water in a strengthened division.  Not only did they fail to strengthen as needed at the deadline, but also nearly lost their manager, Steve McClaren.

Man United's depth: you get what you pay for

A team that only last season was a twinkling in Sir Alex Ferguson's eye dismantled former rivals Arsenal at Old Trafford on Sunday. Both sides fielded below-strength sides as the Gunners reeled after losing Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas to continental rivals while United suffered from injuries to world class defenders Rio Ferdinand, Nemanja Vidic and Rafael.

This brings us to ask - where would Manchester United's Second XI finish over a full Premier League season? Obviously putting injuries aside, their second-best eleven players (four of them played on Sunday) make an imposing lineup:

Manchester United: Lindegaard; Rafael, Evans, Jones, Smalling; Park, Fletcher, Carrick, Valencia; Berbatov, Welbeck. Rough estimate of combined cost: ₤105 million.

We can safely expect such a lineup - and such remarkable spending, vastly inflated by fees for former first-choice players Berbatov, Carrick and future first-teamer Phil Jones - to finish higher than mid-table, based upon the strength of last season's fourteenth-best team:

Bolton Wanderers: Jaaskelainen; Steinsson, Cahill, Knight, Robinson; Lee, Holden, Muamba, Petrov; Davies, Klasnic. Rough estimate of combined cost: ₤20.7 million.

Similarly, they would probably defeat a team from last year's top-half, Fulham FC, who finished eighth:

Fulham: Schwarzer; Baird, Hangeland, Hughes, Riise; Kasami, Murphy, Sidwell, Duff; Dembele, Dempsey. Rough estimate of combined cost: ₤24 million.

When matched against Tottenham Hotspur, who finished fifth, they won out in a 3-0 triumph at home in the second week of the season - although Spurs didn't field captain Ledley King.

Tottenham Hotspur: Friedel, Corluka, King, Dawson, Assou-Ekotto; Bale, Modric, Kranjcar, Lennon; Defoe, Crouch. Rough estimate of combined cost: ₤72.5 million.

Of course such a team could certainly struggle against the bigger sides and lacks a certain brutality boasted by Vidic and Wayne Rooney. But given the sums of money spent on compiling such enviable depth, it's only expected that they should finish above all but teams with a similar ability to spend.

Teams taken from last round of EPL fixtures and amended to include "obvious" first-teamers if they were not selected.

Note: While Spurs have certainly spent on their lineup, the total is lowered considerably by the decreased fees paid for Aaron Lennon and Niko Kranjcar, who were obtained for somewhere in the region of a combined ₤4.5 million from clubs in severe financial strife. Due to performance and circumstance, both players would now retail for far higher.

Fulham to join Stoke and Birmingham in Europa League?

As the Premiership season hurtles to a satisfying conclusion, few may be more sated than Mark Hughes. The Welshman, in his twelfth year of management, has led Fulham to tenth place so far this season, boasts a +4 Goal Difference and a fair play record which sees them firmly in contention for European football next season.

Roundly pilloried in his early days at Craven Cottage - for a combination of factors including the club's mediocre-at-best early form, his egregiousness about his time at Manchester City, an insistence that every opposing manager properly shake hands with him and finally, his not being Roy Hodgson. Using a finally-healthy forward trio of Andy Johnson, Moussa Dembele and - critically - Bobby Zamora, Hughes has masterminded the Cottagers back from a perilous December position. Fulham still struggle to win away from home, but they've solidified their spot as a mid-table Premiership team and haven't had a player sent off since 2009.

UEFA awards a Europa League position to the best-behaved club (in terms of red and yellow cards) in each of the three best-behaved European leagues, so long as that club hasn't already qualified for the tournament. While Fulham lead the Premiership's disciplinary table, they haven't assured themselves of this spot - should they commit three yellows more than second-placed Blackpool (or worse, a couple of red cards) over their last two games, they would be

lose their position. Stoke City qualified for the tournament thanks to their FA Cup success, while Birmingham's League Cup triumph could see them playing in Podgorica next year. To see Blackpool - perhaps even from the Championship - would provide the most unlikely trio of English Europa League entrants in some time.

The Whites' positive goal difference is also a boon. Alongside freescoring midfielder Clint Dempsey, their primary forward trio of Johnson, Zamora and Dembele have played a combined forty-two starts as Dembele and Zamora have spent much of the season recovering from broken legs. Each of the three has a differing, harmonising se

t of skills - Big Bobby's the target-man with eyes on an England call-up, Johnson's the archetypal goal poacher while Dembele is fleet of foot and nimble in the link-up.

This trident - thrust by Dempsey and Danny Murphy - has Fulham, Michael Jackson statue and all, sitting tenth in the league. Even after receiving an entertaining 5 -2 thrashing at the hands of Liverpool, Fulham boast a goal difference of +4, the second-best figure over the past ten EPL seasons for a club finishing in that position. Should they finish lower this differential could be a Premiership record. Like many managers, Hughes is most visible in defeat. That very little has been said of him during 2011 could perhaps be the ultimate compliment that his job in London has been completed in the image of the man himself - with very little fuss.

Image: Fulham's owner, Mohammed Al-Fayed with plastic friend. Courtesy: sports.yahoo.com

Goal Difference crucial for Premiership survival

The relegation battle this term in the Premiership has become increasingly intense. With Manchester United seemly stumbling towards the title as Arsenal and Manchester City reel off-course, the bottom of the table proves now to be the more intriguing sub-competition; a race no club or fan wants to win.

As we examined last week which Championship clubs from may take their place among English football's elite, the scrap for who replaces them in the second tier is in full flight. Seemingly European candidates two months ago, Sunderland are dropping like an action-movie elevator, while Blackpool's astonishing start to the season came undone at about exactly the same time as Charlie Adam's Liverpool move was rejected. On the other hand, Wolves have proved the most plucky of all the teams in the relegation zone yet still prop up the table, hit hard by injury to target-man Kevin Doyle.

What confuses this situation more than in years past is that there are no "certainties" for the drop. Last year Portsmouth failed to break twenty points (thanks among other things to a nine-point deduction for going into administration) and in 2008, Derby County broke Sunderland's record from 2006 for the fewest points in a season. There's no such luck for clubs hovering outside the zone this year - this season there are no easybeats. The entire bottom half of the Premiership table sits within one "six-pointer" of the drop zone.

When comparing this season to the previous six, there really is no precedent to the tightness in the relegation battle we see this year. In every other year, with the exception of 2009, there has been one club cut adrift at the bottom of the league. In 2009, that club was West Bromwich Albion, who rallied mildly at the tail-end of the season to finish with the same points tally as nineteenth-placed Middlesbrough.

Another trend over recent years has been that the tighter the relegation battle has become, the more impact Goal Difference has on which clubs survive. In 2007 and 2008, eight clubs each year finished the season within six points of relegation - or one crucial win against a fellow straggler. Excepting Derby County in 2008 (who finished the season with 11 points and an all time goal difference record of -69), it's easy to see that the average Goal Difference of relegation-threatened clubs decreases as the number of clubs "in trouble" increases. We've defined "threatened" as a club within six points of the drop zone.

Season	Clubs within 6 points of relegation zone	Average Goal Difference of threatened clubs
2010-11 (5 or 6 games remain)	10	-13.7
2009-10	5	-34.8
2008-09	5	-24.8
2007-08	8	-36.67 (incl. Derby County) -18.71 (excl. Derby Cty)
2006-07	8	-21.38
2005-06	4	-29.25
2004-05	5	-23.6

Derby County can be excluded because they are a statistical outlier - their season-long goal difference a whole 60% worse than any club's during the past seven years. Since they lost almost every game (season record 1-8-29) we can assume everyone took points off them. This assumption may not necessarily be correct, but statistically speaking, it is safe.

As you can see, the tighter a relegation battle gets, the tighter clubs tend to become - with the possible exception of Ian Holloway's Blackpool. If more club become involved in a relegation battle, it leads to lower average goal differences across those threatened teams. This season has produced another statistical anomaly which is interesting (but not very interesting) - Mark Hughes' Fulham are the only "threatened" club in seven years to boast a positive goal difference (+1).

Therefore, we can say safely with approximately 85% of the season complete, the 2010-11 goal differences figures are (on average) probably going to be the lowest of the past seven years. Extrapolated, these mean figures could be as low as -15.9 over the course of the entire season. If we use Goal Difference as a marker of how intense a relegation battle is, then this relegation battle is (statistically) about 20% more intense than the previous most intense one in 2008, involving Birmingham, Reading, Fulham and Bolton.

Fulham FC: The Good, The Bad and the Ego

Roy Hodgson is now an honorary Scouser. Mark Hughes is returned from the living Dead. The King is dead, long live the King.

Hughes returns to football management after six months in the near-wilderness. Apart from being linked with jobs as far apart as Turkey, the Cote d'Ivoire and West Ham, his choice of taking over a Fulham squad coming off probably the most successful year in its history is in itself laudable and curious. Even following a long Europa League campaign where the Cottagers were defeated in the final by a (probably) superior Atletico Madrid, Fulham remains a smallish club with ambitions and finances far-removed from Hughes' last position.

Perhaps he has decided his best move is overachieving with a small- or mid-market club but doesn this put Hughes in a quandary? He's come from unlimited resources, and apparently has rebuffed interest from several interested parties simply because he was once the manager of a “big club” and wanted a job in keeping with his results and reputation. He's had money and therefore had no interest in slumming it at his next role which is sort of admirable, but if it's your club being rebuffed it can leave a sour taste in the mouth. It's now no secret, Mark Hughes has an ego, for better or worse.

I say for better. Surely at a Fulham FC coming from some moderate success yet needing some squad renewal, ego is a good thing? If as has been intimated Hughes is so sure of himself then his first task is to ensure some of that rubs off onto his charges. A manager with a well-developed sense of ego tends to engender one of three moods in his squad: inspiration, alienation or a weird bastard child of the both. Hughes is well known to be quite soft-spoken, at least softly-spoken enough so as not to be abrasive, but if his methods and results differ too greatly from those of Hodgson (another mild-mannered gaffer) he risks the senior players upping and leaving.

The fine line that Hughes must tread is that of empowering his playesr while getting them to buy into his methods. If you told me that this could be done by either an egomaniac or a serf, I'd pick the Kevin Pietersen clone any time: as success breeds success, if done correctly self-belief breeds self-belief. Hodgson mastered this excellently; Hughes has both the wherewithal and the ability to instil this into his squad as witnessed by his tenure at Blackburn. In that small market he squeezed the best out of potential topliners Roque Santa Cruz and Morten Gamst Pedersen, as well as from players previously viewed as plodders like Jason Roberts. He has form for getting the most from his charges, and that in itself is a big tick for a smaller-market manager. Given the limited funding, the other thing a smaller market manager must do this without alienating his roster. If he can get all the players looking in one direction he will have success because he followed the formula: buy in + empowerment + discipline (which comes from the respect gained by empowering the players) = results.