Showing posts with label Championship. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Championship. Show all posts

Friday, May 23, 2014

Philosophising the most important game in world football

Naming the most important club game in club football is perhaps more of a poser than you’d think.

There are two major contenders for the title and both will occur today. The case for one challenger, the UEFA Champions League Final is based around the prestige (and money) that accompanies winning the title of best team in the best league in the most competitive confederation. The case for the other competitor, the English League Championship Playoff Final, revolves around the money (and prestige) that accompanies promotion to the world’s richest league.

The monies on offer are truly remarkable. For winning the most lucrative club competition on Earth, either Real or Atletico Madrid will pocket up to €50 million (or about 1/10th of Atleti’s debt); while estimates vary on the worth of promotion to the English Premier League, recent hearsay puts the financial windfall for Derby County or Queens Park Rangers somewhere between £80-120 million – potentially three times as much as for the continent’s premier competition.

Players would certainly opt for the Champions League. Administrators, depending on the club, might flip-flop depending on the media forum in which they’re speaking. Fans – well, that’s a different story.

It goes without saying that the Champions League trophy carries just a little more kudos than does the award presented to (at best) the third-best club in England’s second division. As are sponsorship opportunities – for Atletico, at any rate. But, as clubs like Birmingham City, Leeds United and Norwich City have discovered recently, the revenues that the Premiership generates can be life-sustaining (or at least life-altering) – potentially more so than victory in the Champions League.

The counterargument is based purely on the reasons behind football as a concept – do you watch to see your team excel, or is a high, Icarian flight (c.f. Portsmouth) that ends in a near-fatal swan dive worth the fiscal risk not worth the risk? As a fan – or administrator – do you value survival and/or the opportunity to test yourself in an achievable competition, or the (pen)ultimate glory? You play to win the game – but at all costs?

The most important game in club football then depends very much on the audience and can be distilled down to one paraphrase: Survive, or advance?

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Expanded EPL survival rates now available

On Monday we published the survival rates of every team promoted to the English Premier League from the League Championship since the start of the year.

Because I like to be thorough and because we're about to enter the Premiership's 21st season, I expanded the diagram (and hopefully made it somewhat clearer) to take in every promoted team since the inception of the league in 1992-93.

As usual, years spent continuously in the top division are indicated in azure, while any season spent in the Premier League after promotion-relegation-promotion are represented by green.  Red denotes any season spent outside the Premiership, because we all know football begins and ends there (/sarcasm).

Copyright Balanced Sports
As you can see, Second Season Syndrome is perhaps an overstated phenomenon, with only six instances of a club being relegated after their second year in the EPL.  Every time I look at this graphic I mentally congratulate Fulham for their longevity, a streak matched in the Premiership's history by Newcastle United after their promotion in Year 1 anno PL.

Monday, August 13, 2012

Graphic: Premier League survival rates

The graphic below shows the survival rates since the start of the millennium of teams promoted from The Championship.  It's a direct extension of a similar post authored at about this time last year.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Where to now for Bolton Wanderers?

The Premier League season concluded with one of the more exciting final days in recent memory. While it was certain that either they or QPR would drop to the Championship, the manner of Bolton's ultimate demise was unexpected but eventually deserved. Since a promising start to 2010-11, the Trotters slid rapidly from an FA Cup semi-final appearance to a horrible 2011-12 season.

There was bad luck, such as key forward Chung-yong Lee breaking his leg or Stuart Holden missing most of the year; lack of form and age plagued Kevin Davies and Martin Petrov; decisively the Bolton defence was so leaky one imagines the architect planned it that way.

That Fabrice Muamba collapsed on the pitch at Spurs was again an incident even the best planning couldn't anticipate.

Coyle, only a year ago rumoured as a potential Arsenal manager, has an almighty job to lead his club back to the Premier League. Considering Bolton's rather unsound fiscal state, it is a task he'll likely be expected to complete at the first attempt. Here are four steps which will allow Bolton to earn back their Premiership status:

Friday, May 11, 2012

Cardiff City - football's "Indecent Proposal"

How much money would it take for you to compromise your principles?

Courtesy: itv.com
Cardiff City Football Club, who lost in the first round of the English Championship playoffs this week, were the recipient of just such an indecent proposal: 100 million pounds to permanently re-brand the club, changing the club jersey from blue to red and dispensing with their Bluebird nickname. City would have been permanently “rebranded” in efforts to market the club better in Asia.

Plans for the changeover have been shelved after a leaked document led to uproar from fans.

This is hardly the first time that clubs have dispensed with tradition for the sake of finance. In Australia, Carlton Football Club once changed their navy blue strip to royal blue because M&Ms wanted to introduce Blue M&Ms to Australia. Fans puked (the club's nickname is the Navy Blues) but swallowed the sponsor dollars. Only a year or two later, Geelong footballer Garry Hocking changed his name to Whiskas (a popular brand of cat food) to earn his debt-ridden club a hefty sum.

While both these instances were temporary, occurred half a world away to clubs who seriously needed coin, Cardiff City's financial situation is hardly tip-top. This means the failed re-branding could have serious implications for the club's continued stability in the future. Cardiff's Malaysian owners have suggested as much in an open letter to fans.

The thought of such “branding” makes one only too aware of the pure economics underlying the sport. I would hate to see the club changing to a red dragon motif simply for the sake of it; even typing the word “rebranding” in a sports paradigm makes me feel dirty.

But the commercial reality is that Cardiff City (like many football clubs) have already marginally compromised the integrity of their kit by selling it as a billboard for sponsors. As we can see with Barcelona, Unicef and the mysterious Qatar Foundation, once changes like this are made – no matter how laudable – the game becomes less about crosses and more about balance sheets.

Teams have almost always used their strip to generate income. The site Historical Football Kits describes the changing face of team uniforms over time and you watch a match or visit a football website without multiple ads asking you to “support your club and buy their 2012-13 kit NOW!”.

In reality, what Cardiff City's owners planned to do was just a more clumsy and blatant version of what almost every league club already does: subtly changing and altering their team kit every season to generate revenue. These kit changes are driven by a market – and so was the idea behind Cardiff City Dragons (no matter how potentially flawed that market research may have been).

While not wanting to see the Bluebirds disappear, the industry realities behind the supposed change are immutable. It was pleasing to see fans “win out” and keep their Bluebirds blue; however, the change that didn't happen may end up being a watershed, looked back upon as a great “what if”.

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Where to now for Blackburn Rovers?

When a club is relegated from their country's top division, any attempts to remedy that situation are based upon a number of key principles.

Firstly, one can most often safely assume that the club's owners want the club to succeed. Pursuant to this, those same owners must also be capable of understanding the ramifications of relegation both on their balance sheets and fan emotions. An ability – and willingness – to change what isn't working has usually led these owners to become one of the more wealthy people in the world; it should be expected owners can bring the same flexibility to sports business as well. As we well know, the last point is hardly a given.

Which brings us to a confusing point: how do we understand Venky's, the poultry-farming owners of relegated Blackburn Rovers? Since coming to power in October 2010, the company has almost wilfully alienated Rovers' proud fanbase with a procession of curious statements, odd transfer dealings and, most damningly, casual negligence.

When an autocrat has their subjects' best interests at heart, guessing their next move becomes a mite easier. So obscure have their methods been, predicting Venky's next move would have made Nostradamus rich beyond counting. However, it is obvious that with a prodigious fall from relative safety and a last-ditch escape from relegation last season, that changes must be made at Ewood Park lest the one-time Premier League champions recede into irrelevance.

With that said, here's some suggestions how Blackburn Rovers can move forward:

Keep Yakubu and Grant Hanley

Given Rovers' reluctance to commit to new or significant salaries, to think that Yakubu can stay at Rovers is extremely optimistic. The slowly-self-inflating front man had a great year for his new club, scoring 16 EPL goals this season in a return to form that would have surprised Everton and Nigeria fans alike. If he was able to produce that many goals from a team whose major creative sparks, outside Junior Hoilett, were David Dunn and Mauro Formica, he should own the Championship. His salary should be the one expensive one Rovers wear in hopes of a quick springboard back to the elite league.

Hanley is opposite: a young central defender who progressed through the Rover youth system and earned his position with a string of encouraging performances. He's good, and even better, he's cheap. With Hanley on board – and perhaps even Scott Dann, whose relegation record suggests some clubs aren't likely to touch him – Rovers should have one of the better central defensive duos in the second tier. Which brings us to …

Stop the bleeding

Both literally – they've allowed 76 goals so far this season despite the presence of Dann, Hanley and former England goalkeeper Paul Robinson – and figuratively. Rovers, through the actions and words of ownership, manager, ghost-managing player agent and even vociferous fans, have shown an alarming talent for scoring PR own-goals with a Richard Dunne-like frequency.

The one thing you can say for Rovers management is that they have (until recently) presented a relatively united front. However, squad faith in the manager varies from non-existent to excellent and fan faith in anyone attached to the club is like finding last night's thunderstorm. Make of West Ham and Messrs Gold and Sullivan what you will, but on relegation last term they clearly laid out their plans for a return to the Premiership. Rovers fans need – and deserve – the same clarity.

On-field, the situation is much easier to remedy: in direct opposition to his predecessor, Kean has promulgated an intriguing ability to keep Rovers scoring. However, it has come at the expense of any defensive stolidity at all – a fact highlighted by the departures of Phil Jones, Christopher Samba and Ryan Nelsen. Even Steven Nzonzi, who for the last two seasons has exhibited a lot of promise, was expelled from the squad as Rovers gazed at relegation. He defines rangy and can deconstruct many opposition forward moves – he needs to play.

Freeing the beast within Nzonzi comes with the one, eternal Rovers caveat: everything depends on if they can afford to keep him.

Publicly define Jerome Anderson's role

Only three years ago, Jerome Anderson was a football agent. On his books he had Steve Kean, amidst a plethora of middling-to-impressive football names. Also, he fronted his son Myles. Many of Blackburn's signings are alleged to have derived from Anderson's dealings; he is also rumoured to have been behind the firing of Sam Allardyce and subsequent installation of Kean. Suggestions of his intimate involvement with ownership only strengthened when Rovers signed Myles Anderson despite the player failing to make an impression at SPL side Aberdeen.

No-one outside the Rovers hierarchy is fully aware of how deeply Jerome Anderson's tendrils infiltrate the club. One thing is certain: such opacity suits him, but damages the club's credibility. Venky's need to prioritise either their relationship with Anderson or the club's public face.

Fix the Kean problem

Image courtesy: telegraph.co.uk
Kean's hands probably aren't clean of Allardyce's demise, nor have his tactics (which resemble a kitchen colander) inspired fan confidence. Despite incessant furore he remains respected as a coach, if not necessarily as a manager. He should be respected for getting the best from Yakubu, Hanley and Hoilett; this is balanced by his confusing relationship with Samba, Nelsen and Salgado.

In the Championship, he should have fewer gnarled veterans and more of his own foot soldiers; this in itself should promise a reasonable season. However, in sections of the media and much of Rovers fandom, his reputation is below basement level. He remains, though, obviously ownership's man.

Firing him would quickly remove the second-biggest trigger for fan ire, but may not actually provoke a better response from a team which could navigate the likes of Cardiff City and Watford quite well. Like transfers, the earlier a decision is made, the better for the club.

Kean credibility needs a quick and powerful salve. Much like Terry Connor at Wolves, he is in many ways the victim of circumstance, the puppet for faceless men. What stands against him is his alleged role in creating that situation. It is Venky's position to create a situation in which their man can thrive, but they have hardly done so. Clarifying Anderson's role and publicly drafting their plan for negotiating the Championship would allow much more perspective – and provide grounds to remove Kean should he continue to prove inconvenient or incapable.

Friday, January 20, 2012

3 Reasons "Second" teams in the "Second" Division won't work

Andre Villas-Boas has been roundly criticised by Football League supporters this week for suggesting he’d like Chelsea’s B team to compete in the nation’s second tier.  Unfortunately for him and his club, Villas-Boas’ recent press statements have seen him become something of a mini-sensation magnet and he seems to spend more time now rebutting sly criticism than providing novel insights into the league.


Basing a second team in a competition further down the League tree would be of immense benefit to the parent club, as they could shuffle players in and out of their lineups to get game time as required.  Barcelona, amongst other clubs, uses such a model in the Liga Adelante; while the practice has become so treasured in Australia’s AFL that most clubs are now in a hurry to set up  their own subsidiary club.  However in England, it is almost unworkable – if not for the logistics, but the fans. 

Red tape hurdles include the strict nature of the English League “tree” – Everton boss David Moyes said this morning he tried five years ago to get a youthful Everton B team experience playing against grown men in the Conference (England’s fourth division).  However, he was told any new club would have to start in the lowest division – the ninth tier – and work their way up as have some more famous foundling clubs like AFC Wimbledon and FC United of Manchester 

More problematic are the fans.  English fans, starting with respected and popular Football League blog The Seventy Two, object to their clubs being disadvantaged to suit the mega-rich.  And fair enough too: apart from somewhat minimising the raison d'etre of those clubs whose First XIs compete in the Championship, the League has a rich history and the landscape would change forever (but not necessarily for the worse, mind you). For the Football League to undergo such a radical re-shape simply for the benefit of Chelsea/Man United/Man City/Arsenal youth players would be a devalue English football for the benefit of a few superwealthy clubs.

Finally, there is one great difference between a Barcelona B team and a potential Chelsea B squad – the current Barcelona B team features a squad with two two – international players (Jonathon dos Santos, of Mexico and Luis Gustavo Ledes of Portugal).  The team Chelsea of 2012 would send to the Championship includes overseas talents like Patrick van Aanholt, Nicolas Anelka and Alex.  The EPL reliance on overseas talent would make such a prospect unworkable and stunt the growth of true English player development. 


I can’t see why Andre Villas-Boas wouldn’t want Chelsea B team to play in the Championship.  As a manager focused mainly on results in the short and mid-term, it would be perfect.  But unfortunately it’s a concept which will have to remain strictly Iberian.

Friday, July 22, 2011

The Claytons Premier League Team

In Australia, the term "Claytons" has evolved into the popular lingo for a poor substitute: something does the job, but feels somewhat empty or wanting. It derives from the non-alcoholic beverage "Claytons", usually served mixed with soda, coke or ginger ale and marketed heavily in the 1980s as "the drink you have when you're not having a drink". The slogan has stuck: now, the term Claytons denotes the unofficial and insubstantial.

This season Leicester City will field the Claytons Premier League team. They are the Premiership team that isn't. The midlands side, flush with South East Asian cash, have so far this summer brought in a number of solid Premiership players to reinforce a club which finished tenth last term. Though they started the season poorly, then-chairman Milan Mandaric fired Paulo Sousa and installed infamous Swede Sven-Goran Ericksson who led the Foxes on a mad dash up the Championship ladder.

Since the season's conclusion, Leicester have brought in no fewer than eight players at the expense of only one first-teamer, centre-back Jack Hobbs. Rumours persist that the Foxes are also likely to move for Everton striker Yakubu. Four of those players - John Pantsil, David Nugent, Kasper Schmeichel and Paul Konchesky - have significant top-flight experience while new central defensive coupling Sean St Ledger and Matt Mills were both sought by Premier League clubs and join ex-Palace man Neil Danns as certifiable stars of the Championship.

The worst "kill marry shag" of all time?  courtesy: whoateallthepies.com
Thai businessman Vichai Raksriaksorn is one of the heavyweights behind their newfound spending, while Eriksson is a coach whose recent results with younger teams suggest his flair for teaching is far from extinguished. Interestingly, the former England gaffer has experience with South East Asian bankrolling as his time with Manchester City coincided with the ill-fated Chairmanship of ex-Thailand Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra.

With the new blood purchased combined with a midfield already boasting Richie Wellens, captain Andy King and the recently re-signed Franck Moussa, the Foxes appear primed for a tilt at the Championship title. In fact, their squad appears stronger on paper - especially defensively - than some Premier League sides: would you bet against them in a home-and-away tie with Wigan, any of the promoted sides or even Blackburn?

Eriksson, always a keen competitior, and his Chairman could hardly have picked a better time to reinforce. Though they paid handsomely for Mills (5 million!), they were able to spend substantial - but bargain, nonetheless - sums on custodian Peltier, Schmeichel, Anfield misfit Konchesky and St Ledger. Danns, Pantsil and Nugent arrived on Bosman moves, leaving the Foxes reinforced all over the pitch. What's impressive is they've strengthened at the expense of direct promotion rivals Reading and Leeds United. Leicester also hulk up while other adversaries scramble for players, most notably Cardiff City, Nottingham Forest and Millwall.

They also have invested before a season in which none of the three relegated teams from last year's Premiership are obvious candidates to regain their top-flight status. Birmingham suffer from a multitude of expensive contracts who wish to leave for pastures Premiership; Blackpool must see if their free-wheeling style suits Kevin Phillips and Barry Ferguson rather than David Vaughan, Charlie Adam and (probably) DJ Campbell while West Ham could win the division or finish twelfth.

Considering experts aren't sure what to expect from much of the league, the Championship promises to be a season of intrigue. At least in Leicester there should be clarity of expectation: spending like this belies an aim for their first Premier League football since 2004.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Goal Difference crucial for Premiership survival

The relegation battle this term in the Premiership has become increasingly intense. With Manchester United seemly stumbling towards the title as Arsenal and Manchester City reel off-course, the bottom of the table proves now to be the more intriguing sub-competition; a race no club or fan wants to win.


As we examined last week which Championship clubs from may take their place among English football's elite, the scrap for who replaces them in the second tier is in full flight. Seemingly European candidates two months ago, Sunderland are dropping like an action-movie elevator, while Blackpool's astonishing start to the season came undone at about exactly the same time as Charlie Adam's Liverpool move was rejected. On the other hand, Wolves have proved the most plucky of all the teams in the relegation zone yet still prop up the table, hit hard by injury to target-man Kevin Doyle.


What confuses this situation more than in years past is that there are no "certainties" for the drop. Last year Portsmouth failed to break twenty points (thanks among other things to a nine-point deduction for going into administration) and in 2008, Derby County broke Sunderland's record from 2006 for the fewest points in a season. There's no such luck for clubs hovering outside the zone this year - this season there are no easybeats. The entire bottom half of the Premiership table sits within one "six-pointer" of the drop zone.


When comparing this season to the previous six, there really is no precedent to the tightness in the relegation battle we see this year. In every other year, with the exception of 2009, there has been one club cut adrift at the bottom of the league. In 2009, that club was West Bromwich Albion, who rallied mildly at the tail-end of the season to finish with the same points tally as nineteenth-placed Middlesbrough.


Another trend over recent years has been that the tighter the relegation battle has become, the more impact Goal Difference has on which clubs survive. In 2007 and 2008, eight clubs each year finished the season within six points of relegation - or one crucial win against a fellow straggler. Excepting Derby County in 2008 (who finished the season with 11 points and an all time goal difference record of -69), it's easy to see that the average Goal Difference of relegation-threatened clubs decreases as the number of clubs "in trouble" increases. We've defined "threatened" as a club within six points of the drop zone.


Season

Clubs within 6 points of relegation zone

Average Goal Difference of threatened clubs

2010-11 (5 or 6 games remain)

10

-13.7

2009-10

5

-34.8

2008-09

5

-24.8

2007-08

8

-36.67 (incl. Derby County)

-18.71 (excl. Derby Cty)

2006-07

8

-21.38

2005-06

4

-29.25

2004-05

5

-23.6

Derby County can be excluded because they are a statistical outlier - their season-long goal difference a whole 60% worse than any club's during the past seven years. Since they lost almost every game (season record 1-8-29) we can assume everyone took points off them. This assumption may not necessarily be correct, but statistically speaking, it is safe.

As you can see, the tighter a relegation battle gets, the tighter clubs tend to become - with the possible exception of Ian Holloway's Blackpool. If more club become involved in a relegation battle, it leads to lower average goal differences across those threatened teams. This season has produced another statistical anomaly which is interesting (but not very interesting) - Mark Hughes' Fulham are the only "threatened" club in seven years to boast a positive goal difference (+1).


Therefore, we can say safely with approximately 85% of the season complete, the 2010-11 goal differences figures are (on average) probably going to be the lowest of the past seven years. Extrapolated, these mean figures could be as low as -15.9 over the course of the entire season. If we use Goal Difference as a marker of how intense a relegation battle is, then this relegation battle is (statistically) about 20% more intense than the previous most intense one in 2008, involving Birmingham, Reading, Fulham and Bolton.

Monday, April 11, 2011

The Shape of Premierships to Come

Although not a foregone conclusion, Manchester United seem to be waddling away with the Premiership - needing to not only stumble, but actually fall over to drop top spot - so perhaps it's worth taking a look at the possible shape of the Premiership next year by examining England's second tier, the Championship.


One level removed from the big bucks there's a fantastic promotion race. Only a month ago, league-leading Queens Park Rangers seemed assured of automatic promotion but now their chances depend almost solely on an FA disciplinary hearing set for May 3rd. The Londoners, led by the abrasive Neil Warnock and bankrolled by Formula One's Bernie Ecclestone and Flavio Briatore, sat a dozen points clear on top behind a miserly defence and the silkiness of Moroccan midfielder Adel Taarabt. Now, with their lead cut to nine, they face investigation into their acquisition of Argentine midfielder Alejandro Faurlin as sources suggest he was not signed from a club side, but from a third party.


Since the Carlos Tevez saga of 2006-07 which saw Sheffield United (managed by Warnock) relegated, the FA instituted rules about the purchase of players whose rights aren't owned by club sides. If it's found the Rs have acted in breach of league regulations they could face fines or even be stripped of points. Since this is the first alleged breach since the Tevez affair, no-one knows what form any potential punishment may take. Probably in order to beef up speculation and anticipation, the Football League has scheduled the hearing for three days before the last round of matches.


The peloton chasing is full of the usual suspects and clubs seeking redemption. Norwich City occupy second position and are chasing successive promotions under Paul Lambert, the brightest of bright young things in English football management. They play an exciting style based around the talents of make-good striker Grant Holt, who has found a home after being rejected by several lower-league clubs. Playoff constants Cardiff City lie directly behind them one point adrift of the Canaries' automatic promotion slot. Their nemesis - whoever they play in the Promotion Playoffs - could well be rivals Swansea City, equal on points and goal difference and reaping the benefit of a Chelsea connection: club-record signing Scott Sinclair and loanee Fabio Borini both arrived at the club through manager Brendan Rogers' contacts. Reading sit a further three points back.


A very even season in the Premiership - one in which any of twelve clubs could go down and all three promoted sides could survive - is mirrored in the second division as all three sides promoted from League One last year could make the Promotion Playoffs: Leeds United have 64 points and Millwall 60 after arriving from the third tier with Norwich City. As the Premiership becomes more even thanks to squad limits and the Global Financial Crisis, the Championship seems to be benefiting as clubs are able sign better quality players at cutdown prices simply because they don't have a squad position at their original teams, which can only serve to benefit English football.


So late in the season and with no evidence on which to decide on any potential punishment for QPR, let's hedge our bets and suggest that should they not receive a significant points sanction, they and Norwich will qualify for automatic promotion, leaving a battle between Welsh arch-rivals for the final promotion spot. Should Rangers lose over six points in sanctions, however, all bets are off. Cardiff have experience in these situations - and thus a huge amount of baggage . Past results favour the in-form and exuberant clubs like Blackpool, Burnley, Watford and Hull, suggesting Swansea City may have the edge over their Celtic rivals.

Monday, August 9, 2010

West Bromwich Albion FC: The Yo-Yo Effect

The noughties have presented us with the ultimate expression of the Yo-Yo team – West Bromwich Albion. Their thrify ownership have decided against risking the big bucks (sorry, pounds) required to maintain their Premiership status, so they've invested money in their squad only when both cost-effective and absolutely needed, then pocketed their parachute payments. They may as well change their club motto to “Without Squander”.

They've won or finished second in their last two Championship seasons. The season before that brought elimination in the Promotion Playoffs. Their squad changes minimally from Top to Second Tier. They are, for their market and sponsors, if not their fans, a successful club. So why don't more teams follow this model and ensure their own relative certainty?

One simple reason is overconfidence. If a club accomplish promotion from the Championship they are entitled to feel strong, as if they can take on the world. Generally, that's rather an inexperienced point of view, as much false bravado as anything. The Premiership is a major step up from the Championship as proved by the number of teams who go straight back down. Managerial or board overconfidence is the worst kind: the mentality of “All we need is one or two class signings” causes overreach and financial burdens a club in the Championship can't maintain. To bring in class signings, that player usually requires more money or more security than he already has, security that a relegation-threatened club is ill-placed to afford. If the worst happens and they drop, the club is stuck with a heavy contract – we call that “Doing a Hull” - or with a malcontent.

The second factor for WBA is that the players have been there before. Most have competed in both leagues know what is required in order to survive, even if they're incapable of meeting those requirements. Relegation is an obvious kick in the teeth but each goes into the following season aware that their club has the ability to bounce straight back up again. This knowledge provides a certain confidence that the demoted don't always have.

This common sense attitude seems commendable, but only a few squads have progressed from it. It provides stability for sure, but locks the clubs into a purgatory where their unable to succeed at the highest level yet perfectly able to fail should circumstances conspire one level down. But really, if you're making money – and the parachute payments are generous indeed – why would you risk that by overspending and in three years find yourself mid-table Championship? At a smaller club, success is no sure thing no matter what the investment. In football, there are no sure things unless they involve John Terry and an underwear model.

Newcastle United FC: Fluke year 2009 or 2010?

After years of flirting with European competition, the 2009 incarnation of Newcastle United did as their roster had promised for a year or two and fell without murmur into the Championship. They'd No question it was a stinker of a year: banshee-d by injuries, Joe Kinnear's entrance, two management Messiahs in Keegan and Shearer failed to get the job, Joe Kinnear's 37 F-bombs in two minutes, Michael Owen still drawing six-figure weekly wages, Joe Kinnear's exit and Denis Wise's antics as “Director of football and alleged Cockney mafiosa”.

When examined in-depth, United deserved to be relegated. In building a “Championship Manager” squad, they ignored the first rule of common sense: in the real world, a good reputation and high transfer fee doesn't always mean a guarantee of Premier League quality. The list of big names – and big money – is impressive but must be sickening in the extreme to the Toon army: ultimately every single one of Owen, Alan Smith, Nicky Butt, Joey Barton, Kieron Dyer, Obafemi Martins and Fabricio Coloccini all flopped on Tyneside. The results were humiliating as a succession of bosses failed to get players with some experience of success to buy-in to the team plan. That there were four separate team plans behind Keegan, Hughton, Kinnear, Hughton again and Shearer made that buy-in nearly impossible to achieve.

Last year amid constant speculation that they would nose-dive into League One a la Leeds United, Newcastle United banded together behind promoted assistant Chris Hughton to clinch promotion easily and reclaim their divinely-decreed level of football. They did this with unfussy football as the departures of finesse-type Martins & Owen; a capital “f” Fighting Spirit formed the team's backbone more than Harper, Taylor, Nolan & Carroll. As Hughton infused self-belief and direction, the fight got stronger until they proved to be not only the biggest team in the second tier, but the best.

So which season was the fluke? The squad barely changed between the two years as NUFC were unable to trim their titanic wage bill much before last term. The same squad played exceptionally against Scunthorpe or Blackpool where in 2009 they'd performed dismally against Hull & Stoke. Success in 2010 rests on the expectation of the fans and board. Should those expectations become (cf. our Blackburn preview) too lofty it becomes automatically injurious. The day of “because they're a big club they need a top-10 finish” is past and if the current squad hears this they are likely to look quizzically at the fans and throw their arms up in disbelief. With their ageing catalogue of fallen angels this is no better than a 12-14th placed squad and the likelihood is that they know it. The first aim should be staying up and should Hughton encourage play as in the Championship last term it is achievable.

The fluke wasn't in Newcastle going down in 2009; the fluke was in them staying in the second-tier only one year. Rather than chalking it down to random factors or bad luck, Hughton chose to see it as a warning about the dangers of complacency and overreaching. He did an astonishing job with the players on hand in getting them focused on only one thing – redemption. Not redemption in the eyes of the fans but redemption in their own eyes: there should be no doubt at all in the players' minds that relegated Newcastle United of 2009 was a better squad than survivor Hull. There should be little doubt they were a better squad than 12th placed Stoke City. If Hughton gets the players to understand that they still need to prove their own quality to themselves, then Newcastle can survive and even thrive (like Stoke City or Bolton) in the Premier League. Survival in this manner mighn't please the Toon Army, but survival at the top level is preferable to threatening vaguely from lower leagues. Just ask Leeds United.