Friday, May 23, 2014
Philosophising the most important game in world football
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Expanded EPL survival rates now available
Because I like to be thorough and because we're about to enter the Premiership's 21st season, I expanded the diagram (and hopefully made it somewhat clearer) to take in every promoted team since the inception of the league in 1992-93.
As usual, years spent continuously in the top division are indicated in azure, while any season spent in the Premier League after promotion-relegation-promotion are represented by green. Red denotes any season spent outside the Premiership, because we all know football begins and ends there (/sarcasm).
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Copyright Balanced Sports |
Monday, August 13, 2012
Graphic: Premier League survival rates
Monday, May 14, 2012
Where to now for Bolton Wanderers?
Friday, May 11, 2012
Cardiff City - football's "Indecent Proposal"
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Courtesy: itv.com |
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Where to now for Blackburn Rovers?
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Image courtesy: telegraph.co.uk |
Friday, January 20, 2012
3 Reasons "Second" teams in the "Second" Division won't work
Friday, July 22, 2011
The Claytons Premier League Team
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The worst "kill marry shag" of all time? courtesy: whoateallthepies.com |
Friday, May 13, 2011
Balanced Sports on Soccerlens: Championship Promotion Playoffs analysis
Friday, April 22, 2011
Goal Difference crucial for Premiership survival
The relegation battle this term in the Premiership has become increasingly intense. With Manchester United seemly stumbling towards the title as Arsenal and Manchester City reel off-course, the bottom of the table proves now to be the more intriguing sub-competition; a race no club or fan wants to win.
As we examined last week which Championship clubs from may take their place among English football's elite, the scrap for who replaces them in the second tier is in full flight. Seemingly European candidates two months ago, Sunderland are dropping like an action-movie elevator, while Blackpool's astonishing start to the season came undone at about exactly the same time as Charlie Adam's Liverpool move was rejected. On the other hand, Wolves have proved the most plucky of all the teams in the relegation zone yet still prop up the table, hit hard by injury to target-man Kevin Doyle.
What confuses this situation more than in years past is that there are no "certainties" for the drop. Last year Portsmouth failed to break twenty points (thanks among other things to a nine-point deduction for going into administration) and in 2008, Derby County broke Sunderland's record from 2006 for the fewest points in a season. There's no such luck for clubs hovering outside the zone this year - this season there are no easybeats. The entire bottom half of the Premiership table sits within one "six-pointer" of the drop zone.
When comparing this season to the previous six, there really is no precedent to the tightness in the relegation battle we see this year. In every other year, with the exception of 2009, there has been one club cut adrift at the bottom of the league. In 2009, that club was West Bromwich Albion, who rallied mildly at the tail-end of the season to finish with the same points tally as nineteenth-placed Middlesbrough.
Another trend over recent years has been that the tighter the relegation battle has become, the more impact Goal Difference has on which clubs survive. In 2007 and 2008, eight clubs each year finished the season within six points of relegation - or one crucial win against a fellow straggler. Excepting Derby County in 2008 (who finished the season with 11 points and an all time goal difference record of -69), it's easy to see that the average Goal Difference of relegation-threatened clubs decreases as the number of clubs "in trouble" increases. We've defined "threatened" as a club within six points of the drop zone.
Season | Clubs within 6 points of relegation zone | Average Goal Difference of threatened clubs |
2010-11 (5 or 6 games remain) | 10 | -13.7 |
2009-10 | 5 | -34.8 |
2008-09 | 5 | -24.8 |
2007-08 | 8 | -36.67 (incl. Derby County) -18.71 (excl. Derby Cty) |
2006-07 | 8 | -21.38 |
2005-06 | 4 | -29.25 |
2004-05 | 5 | -23.6 |
Derby County can be excluded because they are a statistical outlier - their season-long goal difference a whole 60% worse than any club's during the past seven years. Since they lost almost every game (season record 1-8-29) we can assume everyone took points off them. This assumption may not necessarily be correct, but statistically speaking, it is safe.
As you can see, the tighter a relegation battle gets, the tighter clubs tend to become - with the possible exception of Ian Holloway's Blackpool. If more club become involved in a relegation battle, it leads to lower average goal differences across those threatened teams. This season has produced another statistical anomaly which is interesting (but not very interesting) - Mark Hughes' Fulham are the only "threatened" club in seven years to boast a positive goal difference (+1).
Therefore, we can say safely with approximately 85% of the season complete, the 2010-11 goal differences figures are (on average) probably going to be the lowest of the past seven years. Extrapolated, these mean figures could be as low as -15.9 over the course of the entire season. If we use Goal Difference as a marker of how intense a relegation battle is, then this relegation battle is (statistically) about 20% more intense than the previous most intense one in 2008, involving Birmingham, Reading, Fulham and Bolton.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Balanced Sports on Soccerlens: Scoring Stats, down the divisions

Monday, April 11, 2011
The Shape of Premierships to Come
Although not a foregone conclusion, Manchester United seem to be waddling away with the Premiership - needing to not only stumble, but actually fall over to drop top spot - so perhaps it's worth taking a look at the possible shape of the Premiership next year by examining England's second tier, the Championship.
One level removed from the big bucks there's a fantastic promotion race. Only a month ago, league-leading Queens Park Rangers seemed assured of automatic promotion but now their chances depend almost solely on an FA disciplinary hearing set for May 3rd. The Londoners, led by the abrasive Neil Warnock and bankrolled by Formula One's Bernie Ecclestone and Flavio Briatore, sat a dozen points clear on top behind a miserly defence and the silkiness of Moroccan midfielder Adel Taarabt. Now, with their lead cut to nine, they face investigation into their acquisition of Argentine midfielder Alejandro Faurlin as sources suggest he was not signed from a club side, but from a third party.
Since the Carlos Tevez saga of 2006-07 which saw Sheffield United (managed by Warnock) relegated, the FA instituted rules about the purchase of players whose rights aren't owned by club sides. If it's found the Rs have acted in breach of league regulations they could face fines or even be stripped of points. Since this is the first alleged breach since the Tevez affair, no-one knows what form any potential punishment may take. Probably in order to beef up speculation and anticipation, the Football League has scheduled the hearing for three days before the last round of matches.
The peloton chasing is full of the usual suspects and clubs seeking redemption. Norwich City occupy second position and are chasing successive promotions under Paul Lambert, the brightest of bright young things in English football management. They play an exciting style based around the talents of make-good striker Grant Holt, who has found a home after being rejected by several lower-league clubs. Playoff constants Cardiff City lie directly behind them one point adrift of the Canaries' automatic promotion slot. Their nemesis - whoever they play in the Promotion Playoffs - could well be rivals Swansea City, equal on points and goal difference and reaping the benefit of a Chelsea connection: club-record signing Scott Sinclair and loanee Fabio Borini both arrived at the club through manager Brendan Rogers' contacts. Reading sit a further three points back.
A very even season in the Premiership - one in which any of twelve clubs could go down and all three promoted sides could survive - is mirrored in the second division as all three sides promoted from League One last year could make the Promotion Playoffs: Leeds United have 64 points and Millwall 60 after arriving from the third tier with Norwich City. As the Premiership becomes more even thanks to squad limits and the Global Financial Crisis, the Championship seems to be benefiting as clubs are able sign better quality players at cutdown prices simply because they don't have a squad position at their original teams, which can only serve to benefit English football.
So late in the season and with no evidence on which to decide on any potential punishment for QPR, let's hedge our bets and suggest that should they not receive a significant points sanction, they and Norwich will qualify for automatic promotion, leaving a battle between Welsh arch-rivals for the final promotion spot. Should Rangers lose over six points in sanctions, however, all bets are off. Cardiff have experience in these situations - and thus a huge amount of baggage . Past results favour the in-form and exuberant clubs like Blackpool, Burnley, Watford and Hull, suggesting Swansea City may have the edge over their Celtic rivals.
Monday, August 9, 2010
West Bromwich Albion FC: The Yo-Yo Effect
They've won or finished second in their last two Championship seasons. The season before that brought elimination in the Promotion Playoffs. Their squad changes minimally from Top to Second Tier. They are, for their market and sponsors, if not their fans, a successful club. So why don't more teams follow this model and ensure their own relative certainty?
One simple reason is overconfidence. If a club accomplish promotion from the Championship they are entitled to feel strong, as if they can take on the world. Generally, that's rather an inexperienced point of view, as much false bravado as anything. The Premiership is a major step up from the Championship as proved by the number of teams who go straight back down. Managerial or board overconfidence is the worst kind: the mentality of “All we need is one or two class signings” causes overreach and financial burdens a club in the Championship can't maintain. To bring in class signings, that player usually requires more money or more security than he already has, security that a relegation-threatened club is ill-placed to afford. If the worst happens and they drop, the club is stuck with a heavy contract – we call that “Doing a Hull” - or with a malcontent.
The second factor for WBA is that the players have been there before. Most have competed in both leagues know what is required in order to survive, even if they're incapable of meeting those requirements. Relegation is an obvious kick in the teeth but each goes into the following season aware that their club has the ability to bounce straight back up again. This knowledge provides a certain confidence that the demoted don't always have.
This common sense attitude seems commendable, but only a few squads have progressed from it. It provides stability for sure, but locks the clubs into a purgatory where their unable to succeed at the highest level yet perfectly able to fail should circumstances conspire one level down. But really, if you're making money – and the parachute payments are generous indeed – why would you risk that by overspending and in three years find yourself mid-table Championship? At a smaller club, success is no sure thing no matter what the investment. In football, there are no sure things unless they involve John Terry and an underwear model.
Newcastle United FC: Fluke year 2009 or 2010?
When examined in-depth, United deserved to be relegated. In building a “Championship Manager” squad, they ignored the first rule of common sense: in the real world, a good reputation and high transfer fee doesn't always mean a guarantee of Premier League quality. The list of big names – and big money – is impressive but must be sickening in the extreme to the Toon army: ultimately every single one of Owen, Alan Smith, Nicky Butt, Joey Barton, Kieron Dyer, Obafemi Martins and Fabricio Coloccini all flopped on Tyneside. The results were humiliating as a succession of bosses failed to get players with some experience of success to buy-in to the team plan. That there were four separate team plans behind Keegan, Hughton, Kinnear, Hughton again and Shearer made that buy-in nearly impossible to achieve.
Last year amid constant speculation that they would nose-dive into League One a la Leeds United, Newcastle United banded together behind promoted assistant Chris Hughton to clinch promotion easily and reclaim their divinely-decreed level of football. They did this with unfussy football as the departures of finesse-type Martins & Owen; a capital “f” Fighting Spirit formed the team's backbone more than Harper, Taylor, Nolan & Carroll. As Hughton infused self-belief and direction, the fight got stronger until they proved to be not only the biggest team in the second tier, but the best.
So which season was the fluke? The squad barely changed between the two years as NUFC were unable to trim their titanic wage bill much before last term. The same squad played exceptionally against Scunthorpe or Blackpool where in 2009 they'd performed dismally against Hull & Stoke. Success in 2010 rests on the expectation of the fans and board. Should those expectations become (cf. our Blackburn preview) too lofty it becomes automatically injurious. The day of “because they're a big club they need a top-10 finish” is past and if the current squad hears this they are likely to look quizzically at the fans and throw their arms up in disbelief. With their ageing catalogue of fallen angels this is no better than a 12-14th placed squad and the likelihood is that they know it. The first aim should be staying up and should Hughton encourage play as in the Championship last term it is achievable.
The fluke wasn't in Newcastle going down in 2009; the fluke was in them staying in the second-tier only one year. Rather than chalking it down to random factors or bad luck, Hughton chose to see it as a warning about the dangers of complacency and overreaching. He did an astonishing job with the players on hand in getting them focused on only one thing – redemption. Not redemption in the eyes of the fans but redemption in their own eyes: there should be no doubt at all in the players' minds that relegated Newcastle United of 2009 was a better squad than survivor Hull. There should be little doubt they were a better squad than 12th placed Stoke City. If Hughton gets the players to understand that they still need to prove their own quality to themselves, then Newcastle can survive and even thrive (like Stoke City or Bolton) in the Premier League. Survival in this manner mighn't please the Toon Army, but survival at the top level is preferable to threatening vaguely from lower leagues. Just ask Leeds United.