Fulham to join Stoke and Birmingham in Europa League?

As the Premiership season hurtles to a satisfying conclusion, few may be more sated than Mark Hughes. The Welshman, in his twelfth year of management, has led Fulham to tenth place so far this season, boasts a +4 Goal Difference and a fair play record which sees them firmly in contention for European football next season.

Roundly pilloried in his early days at Craven Cottage - for a combination of factors including the club's mediocre-at-best early form, his egregiousness about his time at Manchester City, an insistence that every opposing manager properly shake hands with him and finally, his not being Roy Hodgson. Using a finally-healthy forward trio of Andy Johnson, Moussa Dembele and - critically - Bobby Zamora, Hughes has masterminded the Cottagers back from a perilous December position. Fulham still struggle to win away from home, but they've solidified their spot as a mid-table Premiership team and haven't had a player sent off since 2009.

UEFA awards a Europa League position to the best-behaved club (in terms of red and yellow cards) in each of the three best-behaved European leagues, so long as that club hasn't already qualified for the tournament. While Fulham lead the Premiership's disciplinary table, they haven't assured themselves of this spot - should they commit three yellows more than second-placed Blackpool (or worse, a couple of red cards) over their last two games, they would be

lose their position. Stoke City qualified for the tournament thanks to their FA Cup success, while Birmingham's League Cup triumph could see them playing in Podgorica next year. To see Blackpool - perhaps even from the Championship - would provide the most unlikely trio of English Europa League entrants in some time.

The Whites' positive goal difference is also a boon. Alongside freescoring midfielder Clint Dempsey, their primary forward trio of Johnson, Zamora and Dembele have played a combined forty-two starts as Dembele and Zamora have spent much of the season recovering from broken legs. Each of the three has a differing, harmonising se

t of skills - Big Bobby's the target-man with eyes on an England call-up, Johnson's the archetypal goal poacher while Dembele is fleet of foot and nimble in the link-up.

This trident - thrust by Dempsey and Danny Murphy - has Fulham, Michael Jackson statue and all, sitting tenth in the league. Even after receiving an entertaining 5 -2 thrashing at the hands of Liverpool, Fulham boast a goal difference of +4, the second-best figure over the past ten EPL seasons for a club finishing in that position. Should they finish lower this differential could be a Premiership record. Like many managers, Hughes is most visible in defeat. That very little has been said of him during 2011 could perhaps be the ultimate compliment that his job in London has been completed in the image of the man himself - with very little fuss.

Image: Fulham's owner, Mohammed Al-Fayed with plastic friend. Courtesy: sports.yahoo.com

Goal Difference crucial for Premiership survival

The relegation battle this term in the Premiership has become increasingly intense. With Manchester United seemly stumbling towards the title as Arsenal and Manchester City reel off-course, the bottom of the table proves now to be the more intriguing sub-competition; a race no club or fan wants to win.

As we examined last week which Championship clubs from may take their place among English football's elite, the scrap for who replaces them in the second tier is in full flight. Seemingly European candidates two months ago, Sunderland are dropping like an action-movie elevator, while Blackpool's astonishing start to the season came undone at about exactly the same time as Charlie Adam's Liverpool move was rejected. On the other hand, Wolves have proved the most plucky of all the teams in the relegation zone yet still prop up the table, hit hard by injury to target-man Kevin Doyle.

What confuses this situation more than in years past is that there are no "certainties" for the drop. Last year Portsmouth failed to break twenty points (thanks among other things to a nine-point deduction for going into administration) and in 2008, Derby County broke Sunderland's record from 2006 for the fewest points in a season. There's no such luck for clubs hovering outside the zone this year - this season there are no easybeats. The entire bottom half of the Premiership table sits within one "six-pointer" of the drop zone.

When comparing this season to the previous six, there really is no precedent to the tightness in the relegation battle we see this year. In every other year, with the exception of 2009, there has been one club cut adrift at the bottom of the league. In 2009, that club was West Bromwich Albion, who rallied mildly at the tail-end of the season to finish with the same points tally as nineteenth-placed Middlesbrough.

Another trend over recent years has been that the tighter the relegation battle has become, the more impact Goal Difference has on which clubs survive. In 2007 and 2008, eight clubs each year finished the season within six points of relegation - or one crucial win against a fellow straggler. Excepting Derby County in 2008 (who finished the season with 11 points and an all time goal difference record of -69), it's easy to see that the average Goal Difference of relegation-threatened clubs decreases as the number of clubs "in trouble" increases. We've defined "threatened" as a club within six points of the drop zone.

Season	Clubs within 6 points of relegation zone	Average Goal Difference of threatened clubs
2010-11 (5 or 6 games remain)	10	-13.7
2009-10	5	-34.8
2008-09	5	-24.8
2007-08	8	-36.67 (incl. Derby County) -18.71 (excl. Derby Cty)
2006-07	8	-21.38
2005-06	4	-29.25
2004-05	5	-23.6

Derby County can be excluded because they are a statistical outlier - their season-long goal difference a whole 60% worse than any club's during the past seven years. Since they lost almost every game (season record 1-8-29) we can assume everyone took points off them. This assumption may not necessarily be correct, but statistically speaking, it is safe.

As you can see, the tighter a relegation battle gets, the tighter clubs tend to become - with the possible exception of Ian Holloway's Blackpool. If more club become involved in a relegation battle, it leads to lower average goal differences across those threatened teams. This season has produced another statistical anomaly which is interesting (but not very interesting) - Mark Hughes' Fulham are the only "threatened" club in seven years to boast a positive goal difference (+1).

Therefore, we can say safely with approximately 85% of the season complete, the 2010-11 goal differences figures are (on average) probably going to be the lowest of the past seven years. Extrapolated, these mean figures could be as low as -15.9 over the course of the entire season. If we use Goal Difference as a marker of how intense a relegation battle is, then this relegation battle is (statistically) about 20% more intense than the previous most intense one in 2008, involving Birmingham, Reading, Fulham and Bolton.

Ryan Giggs: Twenty United Years

During their 2-1 loss to Chelsea on Wednesday, Ryan Giggs achieved the incredible feat of playing for Manchester United for twenty years. And when he appeared to a generous ovation from the substitute's bench, Giggs equalled footballing immortal Bobby Charlton's United appearances record with 606. Think about that: twenty years! 133 teammates, ranging from the very best (Eric Cantona) to the utterly ineffective (David Healy). Forty -eight times he's been on the podium as a trophy winner or runner-up. That's just silly - and a convincing case could be made that he's football's all-time winningest player.

On a personal note, he's been my favourite player ever since that first season where United finished sixth in the old First Division. I'd only recently decided to follow football and the first game televised after that decision was a United fixture - I wish I could remember the game, but for the life of me I can't - so I followed Man U. Mark Hughes, Bryan Robson and Denis Irwin were the stars of that era but, in my first early teenage rebellion, I decided my favourite player was a young guy who showed flashes down the left, the most prominent a back-heel to Hughes just outside the box which led to a "Sparky" score. It was Giggs. 

It can't have been his debut as United lost that 2 - 0 to Everton, but it was one of his earliest appearances for the club. For the entire twenty years I've followed soccer, Ryan Giggs and Sir Alex Ferguson have accompanied me.

After some thoroughly unexhaustive but very fun research, that season 1990-91 can show just how different football is today and the changes in leagues that Giggs' career has endured and outlasted.

In that first season United won the European Cup Winners' Cup, a trophy since replaced by the Champions' League. First Division clubs included Crystal Palace (who finished third in their highest league position ever), now non-league Luton and the now defunct Wimbledon finished one spot below United in seventh. Now-Premiership clubs Fulham, Wigan, Stoke and Birmingham City sat in the lower reaches of Division 3, a league won by Cambridge City. The largest raise in club stature since that time, however, belongs rather unsurprisingly to Blackpool who finished the season fifth in Division 4. Wimbledon notwithstanding, Luton's demise is the greatest fall.

Notable debutants included Giggs, Watford's David James, Liverpool's Steve McManaman, Forest's Roy Keane, Palace's Gareth Southgate and another man to make the United flanks his own, Andrei Kanchelskis. Retirements included former United man Norman Whiteside and Liverpool stalwart Alan Hansen. The football world mourned (?) the passing of Robin Friday when the greatest non-league footballer ever died of a heart attack at 38. Liverpool were re-admitted to European competition after the Heysel Disaster and in remarkable symmetry, only eight days prior to Giggs' debut, Kenny Dalglish resigned as the Scousers' manager. That he is at the helm of the Merseysiders and opposes Sir Alex Ferguson seems very apt.

Stay tuned, as part two of our series on Ryan Giggs' twentieth year in the Manchester United first team will be published in coming days.

Image courtesy: http://www.whoateallthepies.com

Fulham FC: The Good, The Bad and the Ego

Roy Hodgson is now an honorary Scouser. Mark Hughes is returned from the living Dead. The King is dead, long live the King.

Hughes returns to football management after six months in the near-wilderness. Apart from being linked with jobs as far apart as Turkey, the Cote d'Ivoire and West Ham, his choice of taking over a Fulham squad coming off probably the most successful year in its history is in itself laudable and curious. Even following a long Europa League campaign where the Cottagers were defeated in the final by a (probably) superior Atletico Madrid, Fulham remains a smallish club with ambitions and finances far-removed from Hughes' last position.

Perhaps he has decided his best move is overachieving with a small- or mid-market club but doesn this put Hughes in a quandary? He's come from unlimited resources, and apparently has rebuffed interest from several interested parties simply because he was once the manager of a “big club” and wanted a job in keeping with his results and reputation. He's had money and therefore had no interest in slumming it at his next role which is sort of admirable, but if it's your club being rebuffed it can leave a sour taste in the mouth. It's now no secret, Mark Hughes has an ego, for better or worse.

I say for better. Surely at a Fulham FC coming from some moderate success yet needing some squad renewal, ego is a good thing? If as has been intimated Hughes is so sure of himself then his first task is to ensure some of that rubs off onto his charges. A manager with a well-developed sense of ego tends to engender one of three moods in his squad: inspiration, alienation or a weird bastard child of the both. Hughes is well known to be quite soft-spoken, at least softly-spoken enough so as not to be abrasive, but if his methods and results differ too greatly from those of Hodgson (another mild-mannered gaffer) he risks the senior players upping and leaving.

The fine line that Hughes must tread is that of empowering his playesr while getting them to buy into his methods. If you told me that this could be done by either an egomaniac or a serf, I'd pick the Kevin Pietersen clone any time: as success breeds success, if done correctly self-belief breeds self-belief. Hodgson mastered this excellently; Hughes has both the wherewithal and the ability to instil this into his squad as witnessed by his tenure at Blackburn. In that small market he squeezed the best out of potential topliners Roque Santa Cruz and Morten Gamst Pedersen, as well as from players previously viewed as plodders like Jason Roberts. He has form for getting the most from his charges, and that in itself is a big tick for a smaller-market manager. Given the limited funding, the other thing a smaller market manager must do this without alienating his roster. If he can get all the players looking in one direction he will have success because he followed the formula: buy in + empowerment + discipline (which comes from the respect gained by empowering the players) = results.