Why Kenny Dalglish was (sort of) right

Liverpool manager Kenny Dalglish was roundly chastised last week for suggesting that Liverpool's season, by every other measure than Premiership points, had been a success. The Reds sit in eighth position on the Premier League table after a forgettable 2012 that has seen them take only eight points from their twelve fixtures since the turn of the year.

Although a peculiar statement, the fact is that he could be right. The Kop legend just failed to articulate his sentiments correctly – everything depends on your definition of “success”.

Broadly speaking, all sports fans want to see one of two things from their club: present success or promise for the future. There's scant, if any, middle ground. If a club isn't on the threshold of achievement (whether than be team harmony, staying in a division, avoiding liquidation or securing a title) then fans must see management putting structures into place that will realise ambition.

Those structures, as Dalglish rather ineloquently posited, could be on-field – such as new players, value-for-money signings or a team adjusting well to a new style or set of tactics. They could also come from the boardroom, like the now-infamous kit deal.

However, clubs can only trade on hope for so long before it becomes fatuous. The confounder therefore is supporter expectation, a notoriously difficult and formless concept.

Despite an improved squad and a collapsing percentage of achieved points (his ratio has decreased from last term's 61% to 45% this season), Scouse fans should feel their icon's major failing has not been mismanagement of players but of fan expectation. With the arrival of Bellamy, Carroll, Adam, Downing, Henderson, Doni, Enrique and, ultimately and definitively, Luis Suarez, Reds could well have expected a Champions League challenge – at least.

For that to occur the team would have had to have gelled instantly and avoided all controversy and injury. All three were highly unlikely. Though he's been lost/lazy/awful at times, Carroll still has the potential to the league's best big forward, and I defy suggestion that Henderson and Adam won't at least be serviceable. However, all three depend upon being deployed correctly. There remains plenty of promise for the future, if thosee talents boasting “Standard Chartered” on their chests are aptly harnessed.  

Sponsorship and stability should be prized as well - if not perhaps more so than finishing above Everton, or winning the League Cup.  Dalglish, in the immortal words of Obi-Wan Kenobi, could quite rightly say "What I said was true ... from a certain point of view".

Courtesy: dailymail.co.uk

Dalglish began trading on instant achievement when, with Carroll and Henderson struggling, Bellamy crocked and Suarez, well, controversial, the club were better placed to plug the promise of seasons to come for one more year.

How this would have gone over with his superiors is anyone's guess, but with squad expenditure since January last year topping out over ₤85 million, indications are that success had become th expectation. However, and by whoever, the suggestion that the club was placed to succeed now, rather than after a short seasoning period, has placed Dalglish's stiffening neck in a tightening noose.

Craig Bellamy - the signing of the season?

Everyone loves something for nothing.  In the high-priced world of professional football, the same is even more true.  When in August last year Kenny Dalglish asked Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini nicely for Craig Bellamy, the Liverpool icon became the proud “owner” of one very cheap, slightly-used Welsh forward.

That very cheap, slightly used Welsh forward – who spent last season on loan at his hometown club, Cardiff City – has since been one of the Reds’ best players and without question has provided the best value for money of all Liverpool’s 2011 acquisitions.  Considering the plentiful concerns about Bellamy’s physical condition –his knees are reportedly bad enough to prevent him from playing three matches in a row – the contract he signed on Merseyside is for a quite reasonable two years.

In fact, despite only a month ago crowning Sergio Aguero the Premiership’s best signing of 2011, it’s time to reconsider that honour in Bellamy’s favour.  With the difference in transfer fees paid and the disparity in the pair’s respective wages, the title is now the fiery Welshman’s to lose.

As an aside, Bellamy’s success at Liverpool, in concert with defender Nedum “You were such a nice man” Onuoha’s £2.5 million sale to QPR, makes one ponder the validity of City asking so much for sensation-magnet Carlos Tevez.  City have insisted on receiving close to market value for their pugnacious former front man (as well as for other superfluous players Adebayor and Santa Cruz) when they have essentially discarded quality EPL players like Bellamy, Onuoha and Shaun Wright-Phillips for a handful of coppers.

As Tevez has reportedly been fined over £9 million for his repeated indiscretions, his probable profit from any deal (with a signing bonus possibly a percentage of any transfer fee paid) is something City should be hoping to avoid.  This, and possible (though this sounds far-fetched) savings on his wages, mean any substantive monies they receive from his sale should be seen as gravy. 

Given past experience, he is likely to haunt them no matter what fee they may accept for his signature – so the Citizens may as well just move him on and save themselves some more Tevez-induced fiscal heartburn.

What message does your T-shirt send?

The T-shirts worn by Liverpool players – and manager Kenny Dalglish - supporting the banned Luis Suarez may have seriously undermined football’s alleged zero tolerance to racism.  Suarez, the Reds’ Uruguayan forward, was banned for allegedly using a racist term to Manchester United’s Patrice Evra.

This doesn’t make Liverpool’s players or manager racist, but perhaps misguided.  Whether Suarez used the offending term (which may have different implications in his homeland) or not, the guilty verdict marks the record books officially as Suarez having committed the offence.  Public displays like this, though laudable for attempting to support a mate, therefore support not only the player but also, by implication, his actions he was suspended for.

This incident could have come about as a result of a misunderstanding, mis-translation or spite – from either side.  However it started, Liverpool have been placed in a situation where, with the bigger picture in mind, T-shirts supporting Suarez have the unwitting side-effect of undermining football’s anti-racism message.

English Premier League Season Preview

If you want in-depth analysis, visit The Guardian. If it's startling stat-facts you're after, then it's OptaJoe you're looking for. Amusement? Try the Football Ramble. But here, after a summer in which an awful lot was made of ridiculously little, is Balanced Sports' Q & A preview to the English Premier League 2011-12.

courtesy: bleacherreport.com

Arsenal: Where's the love for Arsene Wenger?

The Arsenal faithful want to lynch someone - anyone - for their second-half fades in recent seasons. With Wenger's refusal to reinforce the Arsenal backline to the fans satisfaction, Cesc looking to leave and Nasri increasingly likely to follow, it's liable the Professor is the posse's first choice. Has anyone considered he may have a point? Injury has robbed him of a first-choice central defensive partnership of Vermaelen and Djourou, while Wojciech Szczęsny could have a Joe-Hart-at-Birmingham breakout.

Aston Villa: How much does it matter that McLeish is as popular as a dead polecat?

Due to the dour football his Birmingham City squads chundered out last year, popular opinion of McLeish in Birmingham is like Greece's economy: toxic. This staid mindset, plus Shay Given, may be just the thing Villa need to rectify ageing Central Defensive duo Collins & Dunne's 2011 propensity for mishap. They won't uproot the redwoods, but do look capable of counterpunching behind Charles N'Zogbia, Marc Albrighton and Darren Bent.

Blackburn: Do Venky's care about football?

In a word, no. Or if they do, they've got a weird way of showing it: sacking the effective-on-a-budget Sam Allardyce, commiting ₤5 million to a transfer fund which would take the team "into the Champions' League", frequently summoning manager Steve Kean to India and announcing their interest in every has-been on the planet. They should care though, because if this is the publicity grab it seems, they'll be aghast to see how much revenue (and support and merchandising and sponsorship and ... ) drops on relegation to the Championship with a threadbare squad.

Bolton: What did they do to anger the Gods of broken legs?

Who knows? With promising Chung-Yong Lee sporting a double leg break and attacking right-back Tyrone Mears suffering a similar injury, boss Owen Coyle must looking for a Harry Potter-style Time Turner to re-live the past two weeks. Creative US international Stuart Holden broke his leg had his leg broken in March and probably won't be back until the new year. Without these three cogs and looking short a striker, it's questionable they can create enough goals to capitalise on his preferred passing game.

Chelsea: How many times will we see André Villas-Boas referred to as the New Mourinho?

At a rough guess, 547 by Christmas and the under/over for the season is at 999.5. While he boasts lengthy connections to the Special One, AVB seems to be his own man and is charged with disarming and deconstructing the player cabal that runs the backroom at Chelsea - a unity engendered by Jose. He'll need specialised bomb defusal skills to do so as aggravating John Terry got first Jose and then Big Phil Scolari fired.

Everton: When will David Moyes' eyes finally pop out of his head for good?

It must be frustrating for the ginger man - to consistently assemble good players only to see them want to leave. And after ten years at Goodison Park, he's hardly a Bright Young Thing any more. He's happy in Liverpool, but for a man with tremendous competitive drive the sell-to-buy philosophy must be wearing. He'll probably stay with the Toffees for ages - because at this stage neither he, nor the club, can do better. It's a saddening state of affairs in Mersey's blue half.

Fulham: Where to now?

Fulham once again contest the Europa League after Roy Hodgson led them on a wild ride two seasons ago. Much as they loved that run, fans are already wondering if a second trip to watch their boys in the Ukraine is worth the outlay. The experienced Martin Jol has had success nearly everywhere he's been, however he must confront an ageing squad that takes longer to recover from Thursday night matches. Signing Palermo's teen Patjim Kasami should help, but other newbie John Arne Riise is already the wrong side of 30. Is two days' break enough?

Liverpool: Is King Kenny the Messiah?

The essence to success in video game Football Manager is simple: keep players happy. You do so by winning, praise and goals. While FM bears as much resemblance to the Real Thing as a smoked meat sandwich does to a hot dog, it does underline Kenny Dalglish's early "success" at Liverpool. He's played the kids, signed enough multi-skilled central midfielders to start his own cloning facility and given them targets to aim at in Luis Suarez, Andy Carroll and a reinvigorated Dirk Kuyt. To his credit, Kenny understands it's not rocket science but simple Human Resources.

Man. City: Is it finally my time?

Perhaps. As always the Citizens' fortunes rest on Carlos Tevez - only now, they don't depend on his on-pitch strut. A successful season behind Sergio Aguero, David Silva, Vincent Kompany and even Wesley Sneijder hangs on their ability to rid the dressing room of a malcontent and potential unsettling influence. If he stays, Tevez will contribute mightily but - because of his preference to work up front alone - perhaps at the cost of playing one of Aguero or Dzeko. If he leaves, he'll be replaced perhaps by that little-'n'-large show with Johnson & Silva out wide. It all sounds mouthwatering. Anything less than a Title challenge will disappoint.

Man. United: More important: Cleverley, Welbeck, Jones, Smalling, Gibson, Carrick or De Gea?

Surprisingly enough it's Tom Cleverley, who spent last season on loan at Wigan. Rewarded for an excellent Charity Shield with a call-up to the England squad, he - not Darron Gibson or Michael Carrick - is earmarked as Paul Scholes' successor. While David De Gea is young, he's also a work in progress and, as former coach Abel Resino says, will peak in a decade. He can't be expected to to be more than solid in his first year - especially as he doesn't speak English. Ferguson has invested for the far future between the sticks.

Part two will be published tomorrow.

Kill, Marry or Shag: The Liverpool Midfield

Have you every played the game "Kill, marry or shag"? In it, one player gives his or her opponent three names - it works best with celebrities. Made famous in the TV show "30 Rock", the "player" then has to - hypothetically - kill one, shag one and marry one. It sounds worse than it is and is played most often after several bottles of intoxicant.

It seems that manager Kenny Dalglish is going to have to play a real-life game of "Kill, marry, shag" with the Liverpool midfield. Metaphorically, of course, though I'm sorry about the mental imagery you're now experiencing. The game suggests it requires a person to commit to one person, dispose of another, and have a fleeting dalliance as a third option. With his midfield packed to the extent Scouse fans both celebrate and gnash teeth, thinning out the crowded Mersey midfield is his first priority.

So who should King Kenny kill (ie. sell), marry (commit to) or shag (try out) before season 2011-12 begins?

Please note I'm using these terms as metaphors rather than inciting violence or any kind of personal act!

Steven Gerrard - Marry, though perhaps this isn't as cut and dried as in past years. Gerrard is the best player of the last twenty years on Merseyside. Though he's getting on in years and can't be relied upon to play a full season, selling him would be perhaps the only thing that could dent King Kenny's popularity in Liverpool outside of signing Gary Neville. With more support and backup, perhaps he'll compile a less injured season.

Joe Cole - Better than Messi? Pah. It's in Liverpool's best interests that Cole and his reported ₤90,000 per-week wages make way for better, younger, less injury-prone and more consistent players. The cash is better spent on younger options like Henderson, Shelvey and Spearing. Kill.

Maxi Rodriguez - Tough one. With Kuyt, Maxi seemed to be revitalised more than any of his Scouse teammates, yet his position is now no longer certain due to the presence of new arrival Downing. He managed two hat-tricks last season, so he's more than useful but seems amenable to a change in scenery and even a return to South America. Kill, probably in a difficult decision.

Jay Spearing - The Liverpool youth was given an opportunity at the end of last season and made full use of it. However, his ability - especially to take over from the greats who preceeded him - is highly questionable. At 22, he needs a consistent, quality season to prove he's good enough to stay at a club with Champions' League aspirations. This dichotomy makes him the epitome of a "shag".

Jonjo Shelvey - From a highly touted youth career at Charlton to Merseyside via the England Under-21s, the next step for Shelvey, unlike Spearing is to impose himself on a first-team somewhere. Anywhere. With new additions plus a potentially revitalised Gerrard, it may be he goes elsewhere temporarily to find gainful employment. Shag, but keep an eye on the future - at this stage, he could be anything: good or bad.

Charlie Adam - It seems curious and harsh given the Reds lengthy courtship and respectable transfer fee paid (₤8 million), but the question marks surrounding Charlie Adam's ability to play at the absolute highest level place him in the Shag category. While technically gifted, his body shape is against him and he's been signed from a club who gave him carte blanche as featured player. How he fits into a slower tempo game, with other exceptional passers is still a topic of much debate. Should he fail, he's likely an easy-sale type of asset. If he works out, Liverpool have a fantastic player.

Raul Meireles - After one year divided squarely across Pre/Post Kenny's arrival, Meireles may be the easiest sale of all Liverpool's midfielders. He has a good but not overly generous contract, he performed well in replacing the injured Gerrard, he has Champions' League and World Cup experience and can play a variety of roles. Those skills make him invaluable to the Reds as well, however, and his grittiness can provide a good and classy counterpoint to Gerrard's or Adam's silky offence. Marry him, Kenny, before he gets another offer.

Christian Poulsen - He could be the most unpopular player to grace Anfield since Harry Kewell. That's not because he's spiky, outspoken or uncouth - just that (comparatively) he's not very good. He didn't play well for the man who brought him in, Roy Hodgson, and Roy's pink slip may well have been stamped with a picture of Poulsen's face. It would take a near miracle for the Kop to embrace him amidst the new hope brought by Henderson, Carroll, Suarez and Downing - it's time to kill his Liverpool career and move him back to the continent.

Lucas Leiva - Once a near-pariah, he's now established himself both in the Brazil midfield and in Liverpool's. Though he doesn't do anything - except perhaps tackle - outstandingly well, he does everything to a level that's much better than any potential replacements. For this evenness of skill alone, he's worth marrying.

Alberto Aquilani - While owner John W. Henry has recently come out in support of the perma-crocked Italian, he hasn't convinced many (any?) during his time in the northwest. Kill him, quickly, by selling him to whichever Serie A club is willing to take him and his wage packet. If the Scousers are holding out for price parity, they may be very disappointed - it's time to accept a loss on his ₤17 million purchase-price.

Milan Jovanovic - In a year of disappointments, the Serbian was perhaps the greatest. As soon as a suitor can be found, he's gone. In many respects, given Jovanovic's public statements that he's unhappy in Red, it could be a mercy killing.

Jordan Henderson - The youngster has arrived with a hefty price tag from Sunderland, meaning he's switched coasts for the foreseeable future. He's got talent and industry in loads, but needs developing. Given the preference Dalglish has for youth (buying Suarez, Carroll and Henderson), developing this youngster in concert with Under-21 counterpart Carroll should become the gaffer's highest priority. For better or for worse, Dalglish has married the young Englishman.

Stewart Downing - For all the moneyball philosophy spouted about his reported ₤20 million signing from Aston Villa, Downing is a good, if not great wing presence with a desire to prove himself in the Champions' League. He will play and perform well, but may not make any forget former famous wide-men like John Barnes. He has no Champions' League pedigree, making him appealing but needs more proof before he becomes more than worth a shag.

Charlie Adam: from Bottom to Top

Charlie Adam appears to have finally sealed a move to Liverpool, six months after it was first mooted during the January transfer window. Now, the questions that remain aren't so much when and how much (a mooted ₤7 million-plus-loanees), but how he and his magical left boot will fit into Liverpool's now increasingly crowded central midfield. While he indubitably has the skill, fire and vision, his greatest drawback may be his body shape as he hearkens back to the days of solid footballers, rather than lithe athletes.

Charlie Adam's Wikipedia page in January

Perhaps more interestingly, he becomes the first player to jump from a Premiership relegated club to one of the "big" clubs in quite some considerable time. He is certainly the first to go to an established , Old-School"Big Four" club for a sizeable fee (and thus expectation) since Peter Crouch moved from the south coast to the north-west. This indicates easily how reliant on him Blackpool became, and also how warmly fellow Scot Kenny Dalglish must think of his countryman.

Over the past few seasons, plenty of players have used the predicament of relegation to their advantage: in fact, raiding the relegated has become an annual pastime for those clubs chock-full of TV revenue. After season 2010-2011 alone, many players stand to improve their footballing and financial fortunes as their clubs slide back into the Championship. Adam's fellow Blackpool standouts David Vaughan, Matt Gilks and DJ Campbell look likely to depart - or have already. The entire Birmigham City defense looks liable to be for sale to the highest bid considering their English roots and 2009-10 efficacy, while Scott Parker, Rob Green, Carlton Cole, Thomas Hitzlsperger and Matthew Upson are all established Internationals with English roots and an eye for Premier League, rather than Championship, football.

That most (if not all) these players will be in the Premiership next term is testament to the wonderful season of English Premier League football we have just experienced - not vintage in terms of great play, but by recent standards surprising, combative and very, very even.

But very few players make the leap from the very bottom to the very top. Those who do often arrive as role players or depth and without significant expectation. In recent memory, those that stand out as being snaffled by top-six sides include Crouch, Michael Owen's fabulous Bosman from Newcastle to a new injury-list in the red half of Manchester and Ross Turnbull's astonishing free to Chelsea - surprising more for the Blues' desire than for any other reason; he's subsequently played two matches in two years. 

That clubs as small as Wigan and Blackpool have been able to make a good fist of staying up speaks volumes of the uniform nature of the Premier League when both could so easily have simply faded into gauche unadventurous football. Both clubs have in past had one player on whom they relied: the Tangerines on Adam, and the Latics last year on Charles N'Zogbia. They are almost featured players - soloists in otherwise pedestrian orchestras.

This reluctance for the big clubs to spend on the little guy could come for a couple of reasons - because the bigger fish may reason that the player isn't sufficiently talented or because there are better players available for a similar cost. Perhaps, amidst the ghastly sums thrown about for unproven and sulky forwards, the big clubs are seeking some semblance of Return on Investment; by opting for tried performers - albeit talent coming from performances in vastly different systems.

Of course such theories are debunked easily and painfully by the ₤50 million Manchester United has offloaded already, a rumoured ₤20 million bid for Downing from Liverpool and Chelsea's concerted - and potentially unrequited - chase for Neymar.  While Financial Fair Play apparently isn't restricting the big clubs' overall spending, it is having a more subtle impact - it requires them to hold out for fiscal, as well as footballing Return on Investment. Ferguson's willingness to sell one-club lieutenants seems to indicate the greatest contribution they can now make to the Red Devils could be evening United's balance sheet.

As clubs enter the Premiership with a plan - and do good jobs of sticking to that blueprint - prepare to witness more of this phenomenon. All of QPR, Norwich City and Swansea City play an unsophisticated method - and the Canaries and Swans are exciting to watch. This could result in the same occurring next year: with Scott Sinclair, Wes Hoolahan or even James McCarthy taking the role of featured soloist.

Ryan Giggs: Twenty United Years

During their 2-1 loss to Chelsea on Wednesday, Ryan Giggs achieved the incredible feat of playing for Manchester United for twenty years. And when he appeared to a generous ovation from the substitute's bench, Giggs equalled footballing immortal Bobby Charlton's United appearances record with 606. Think about that: twenty years! 133 teammates, ranging from the very best (Eric Cantona) to the utterly ineffective (David Healy). Forty -eight times he's been on the podium as a trophy winner or runner-up. That's just silly - and a convincing case could be made that he's football's all-time winningest player.

On a personal note, he's been my favourite player ever since that first season where United finished sixth in the old First Division. I'd only recently decided to follow football and the first game televised after that decision was a United fixture - I wish I could remember the game, but for the life of me I can't - so I followed Man U. Mark Hughes, Bryan Robson and Denis Irwin were the stars of that era but, in my first early teenage rebellion, I decided my favourite player was a young guy who showed flashes down the left, the most prominent a back-heel to Hughes just outside the box which led to a "Sparky" score. It was Giggs. 

It can't have been his debut as United lost that 2 - 0 to Everton, but it was one of his earliest appearances for the club. For the entire twenty years I've followed soccer, Ryan Giggs and Sir Alex Ferguson have accompanied me.

After some thoroughly unexhaustive but very fun research, that season 1990-91 can show just how different football is today and the changes in leagues that Giggs' career has endured and outlasted.

In that first season United won the European Cup Winners' Cup, a trophy since replaced by the Champions' League. First Division clubs included Crystal Palace (who finished third in their highest league position ever), now non-league Luton and the now defunct Wimbledon finished one spot below United in seventh. Now-Premiership clubs Fulham, Wigan, Stoke and Birmingham City sat in the lower reaches of Division 3, a league won by Cambridge City. The largest raise in club stature since that time, however, belongs rather unsurprisingly to Blackpool who finished the season fifth in Division 4. Wimbledon notwithstanding, Luton's demise is the greatest fall.

Notable debutants included Giggs, Watford's David James, Liverpool's Steve McManaman, Forest's Roy Keane, Palace's Gareth Southgate and another man to make the United flanks his own, Andrei Kanchelskis. Retirements included former United man Norman Whiteside and Liverpool stalwart Alan Hansen. The football world mourned (?) the passing of Robin Friday when the greatest non-league footballer ever died of a heart attack at 38. Liverpool were re-admitted to European competition after the Heysel Disaster and in remarkable symmetry, only eight days prior to Giggs' debut, Kenny Dalglish resigned as the Scousers' manager. That he is at the helm of the Merseysiders and opposes Sir Alex Ferguson seems very apt.

Stay tuned, as part two of our series on Ryan Giggs' twentieth year in the Manchester United first team will be published in coming days.

Image courtesy: http://www.whoateallthepies.com

The Hodgson exorcism, commenced

Let's be honest, Roy Hodgson's Liverpool career was probably never going to be a really long one. After steering Fulham to the Europa League final last year, his stock was as high as it was ever likely to be and given the traumatic last six months of the Rafa Benitez, then-Anfield execs Martin Broughton and Christian Purslow thought the controlled, effective manner of Hodgson would present a stark, much needed contrast to the mayhem that characterised the final, Hitler's bunker-style days of Benitez.

Unfortunately Hodgson wasn't so much handicapped from day one but never had any legs to stand on: by the club's impending sale, by player - and especially fan - resistance to his preferred style of play, by a lack of funds to buy "Liverpool quality" players, by Fernando Torres' inability to recapture his consistent excellent form of seasons past ... the list goes on. It was a matter of time before Roy was given his cards. His appalling away record - about as appealing as rat sorbet - brought with him from the Cottagers, must have counted against him nearly as much as the protests. It probably also didn't help that many middling Scouse efforts, Roy chose to announce them as their "best performances yet" which meant his credibility both in the dressing room and with The Kop began to waver early in the season.

It's also no surprise that Kenny Dalglish replaces him. "Our Ken" has been angling for a return to managing the Anfield mob for months now. By sniffing around like a beagle on heat, strategically-not-denying-interest and at times actively promoting it like a poor vaudevillian, he's excited the fans dreaming of a end to the tenures of Rafa and Roy. False hope, probably, but hope is a saleable asset in sports. When approached to help in the search for the new Liverpool boss, Dalglish made sure his name was top of the list. His return shouldn't inspire blind confidence in the Mersey faithful though, as his last spell as manager - though successful - ended twenty years ago and he hasn't managed for ten years. He does, however, remain a Liverpool icon and as such perhaps the board had that in mind when dismissing Hodgson in time for Dalglish to make his second manaagerial bow for Liverpool against Manchester United, rallying fans and players alike for their FA Cup clash against their great rivals.

Dalglish returns as caretaker manager, the man thrown to the Premier League wolves to save the Scouser's season. If he gets Torres, Gerrard etc back into touch then, given his status as a club legend, there's every chance he will have secured himself the position for the foxreseeable future.

The first step on Liverpool's new path to glory is on Sunday as they take on United in the FA Cup, a path sure to be long and eventful.