Euro 2012 Final preview

As we regard the Euro 2012 final, it's apparent that we will watch the tournament's two most irresistible sides. Spain have for four years been the international game's standard, a gestalt of tiki-taka, creation and industry. Italy, too, have been utterly compelling; where Spain have over a dozen world-class talents to call upon, arguably the Azzurri boast only a handful – their achievement has come primarily through unity, adaptability and system.

To some observers, their group clash was the best match of the tournament. Since then, the Italians have moved from unknown quantity to having a real puncher's chance at taking the Championship.

Italy manager Cesare Prandelli went into the tournament expecting to play a 4-4-2 with players rotating through a midfield diamond but opted for an unfamiliar 3-5-2 in Italy's opening matches against Spain and Croatia. When this proved only functional versus the Croats, Prandelli went back to his favoured formation which consequently produced sterling results against England and Germany. How they'll line up on Sunday is still unknown, neither formation would surprise.

Tactically, Italy are likely to attempt to free their key midfielders Andrea Pirlo and Daniele De Rossi. De Rossi plays deeper and has struggled to play the full ninety minutes on occasion; Pirlo, the team's creative hub, has been the tournament's best – if not necessarily it's most important – player. The only suggestion Italy may opt for the 3-5-2 again is to offer this duo more protection from a Spanish philosophy based almost entirely upon retrieving possession as soon as it is lost.

Almost to a man, Spain are circuitous, dutiful pests. They discombobulate opponents with tricksy approach patterns amid waves of possession seemingly engineered by Phil Spector. Possession is both weapon and targe; a plastic object moulded and shaped into beautiful creation.

Spain are likely to stick to their favoured 4-3-2-1. Their only question is whether to opt for a true centre-forward or keep Cesc Fabregas out of position as a False 9. With his choices in the semi-final – Alvaro Negredo, who was only mediocre before being subbed early for Fabregas – del Bosque appears to have made his decision. The presence of Fabregas could be crucial in pressuring Pirlo and De Rossi, while also allowing Andrés Iniesta to advance forward and create.

It's worth noting however that Spain have often looked best after withdrawing one of Iniesta, Fabregas or Silva and employing either Barcelona's Pedro or Sevilla's Jesús Navas as out-and-out wide players. This is probably because each triumvir prefers to operate in the centre of the park, while Pedro and Navas earn their coin down the flanks. It isn't that Iniesta or Fabregas can't do so – but that they prefer the field's centre.

Both teams have developed their own effective methods of pacifying their opposition; the most important factor in producing a win from that power-position is the generation of goals. Perhaps the greatest fundamental difference between the two finalists is in each team's ability to draw a goal from the ether: in Antonio Cassano and Mario Balotelli. Prandelli's two forwards have probably been two of the tournament's best and their mere presence – backed by impressive spells by Alessandro Diamanti and Riccardo Montolivo – mean the Italians can feel confident of scoring.

More than perhaps any other team, this Spain team lend themselves to analogy, simile and cliché. Pass and move. Death by a thousand cuts. They pass you to death. Metronomes. Boa Constrictors. They use Alan Rickman's spoon. They possess column inches and bandwidth like they do the football. A win would place them firmly among the best sides of all time, yet they've never had an iconic opponent or truly “all-time” match.

Sunday promises to be that mountaintop.

Spain's Second XI worthy of top 10 ranking

While watching David Silva and Spain dismantle a dogged and compact Scotland on Wednesday, it struck me: this was hardly Spain's best outfit and they were dominating.

Silva cemented his bona fides as one of the top half-dozen players in world football and Spain, with a team featuring second-choice players like Thiago Alcantara, Jordi Alba and Santi Cazorla, passed Scotland into an uneasy submission. The Scots, bless 'em, tried hard but the Spaniards seemed at times to be playing not just another game, but on another plane.

The players who didn't feature on Tuesday - Torres, Casillas, Xabi Alonso, Iniesta, Mata - mean it's now apparent that Spain's second XI could be one of the world's ten best international outfits. They are helped by a healthy youth league and a relative dearth of great opposition: realistically, only the Netherlands and Germany are able to hold a candle to the Spaniards. Brazil and Argentina today only resemble their most terrifying best.

courtesy: sparklingchelsea.wordpress.com

The FIFA world rankings (hardly the greatest indicator, but the only one we've got) suggest the world's top ten sides are Spain, the Netherlands, Germany, Uruguay, Portugal, Italy, Brazil, England, Croatia and Argentina.

In living up to their position description as confusing and nonsensical, the FIFA rankings have Croatia ranked ninth and Greece sitting in eleventh position. This is in spite of both squads finding themselves in the same qualifying group for Euro 2012; a group from which Greece qualified and Croatia now face a tricky playoff tie with Turkey.

We can, however, suggest this is a fairly accurate representation of the best teams in world football.

Were Spain's Second XI to feature in the FIFA rankings, they'd come up against three great teams (Germany, the Netherlands and Uruguay), two inconsistent ones (the other South Americans) and four eminently beatable squads, each with major weaknesses. Apart from perhaps a perceived weakness in central defence, Spain II play a similar brand of football to their first-choice brethren, have pace in abundance and, as they showed on Tuesday, discipline.

Using Spain's favoured 4-2-3-1, the second furia roja would probably include: Valdes; Alba, Jose Enrique, Alvaro Arbeloa and Raul Albiol; Thiago, Javi Martinez, Cesc Fabregas, Santi Cazorla and Pedro; and Fernando Llorente.

Wow.

The argument could be made that this team also features some of the best players dozen players in Spain. In this lineup Pedro plays for the "magoos", yet started in their World Cup triumph last year - superseded by Mata and Silva. Valdes' recent success in head-to-head battles with Casillas now invites, rather than discourages, comparison between the two. Fabregas is shuttled out of the Spain midfield (as with club) by players comfortably in the World's top five. Spain has played better recently when Llorente - rather than Torres - has led the line.

This club may even trouble the the vaunted Spain first team. The Spain Second XI are, on paper, a better team than Croatia, Portugal and even Italy. Place Spain v2.0 in any one of the Euro 2012 qualifying groups (and back them with suitable squad depth) and they at least make the playoffs from each. It's probably also the case that they'd slice England to pieces also.

The simile used most with Spain (and Barcelona) is "death by one thousand cuts". Perhaps a more appropriate metaphor may be that Spanish football is at present drowning the rest of the football world - inexorably, constrictingly and (given their outstanding Euro U-21 campaign) shows no signs of receding. All that is certain is the next wave of Spanish attacks could well overwhelm a struggling Scot, Lithuanian or even Oranje. After decades of torment, La Furia Roja is certainly making up for lost time.

While going back-to-back-to-back at major tournaments is so difficult that it's spoke of in grail-like reverence, the smart money for next year's Euros is on a three-peat - perhaps simply because the difficulty of staying focused for such a period is balanced by the failure of chief rivals Germany and the Netherlands to bridge the gaping talent gap.

English Premier League Season Preview

If you want in-depth analysis, visit The Guardian. If it's startling stat-facts you're after, then it's OptaJoe you're looking for. Amusement? Try the Football Ramble. But here, after a summer in which an awful lot was made of ridiculously little, is Balanced Sports' Q & A preview to the English Premier League 2011-12.

courtesy: bleacherreport.com

Arsenal: Where's the love for Arsene Wenger?

The Arsenal faithful want to lynch someone - anyone - for their second-half fades in recent seasons. With Wenger's refusal to reinforce the Arsenal backline to the fans satisfaction, Cesc looking to leave and Nasri increasingly likely to follow, it's liable the Professor is the posse's first choice. Has anyone considered he may have a point? Injury has robbed him of a first-choice central defensive partnership of Vermaelen and Djourou, while Wojciech Szczęsny could have a Joe-Hart-at-Birmingham breakout.

Aston Villa: How much does it matter that McLeish is as popular as a dead polecat?

Due to the dour football his Birmingham City squads chundered out last year, popular opinion of McLeish in Birmingham is like Greece's economy: toxic. This staid mindset, plus Shay Given, may be just the thing Villa need to rectify ageing Central Defensive duo Collins & Dunne's 2011 propensity for mishap. They won't uproot the redwoods, but do look capable of counterpunching behind Charles N'Zogbia, Marc Albrighton and Darren Bent.

Blackburn: Do Venky's care about football?

In a word, no. Or if they do, they've got a weird way of showing it: sacking the effective-on-a-budget Sam Allardyce, commiting ₤5 million to a transfer fund which would take the team "into the Champions' League", frequently summoning manager Steve Kean to India and announcing their interest in every has-been on the planet. They should care though, because if this is the publicity grab it seems, they'll be aghast to see how much revenue (and support and merchandising and sponsorship and ... ) drops on relegation to the Championship with a threadbare squad.

Bolton: What did they do to anger the Gods of broken legs?

Who knows? With promising Chung-Yong Lee sporting a double leg break and attacking right-back Tyrone Mears suffering a similar injury, boss Owen Coyle must looking for a Harry Potter-style Time Turner to re-live the past two weeks. Creative US international Stuart Holden broke his leg had his leg broken in March and probably won't be back until the new year. Without these three cogs and looking short a striker, it's questionable they can create enough goals to capitalise on his preferred passing game.

Chelsea: How many times will we see André Villas-Boas referred to as the New Mourinho?

At a rough guess, 547 by Christmas and the under/over for the season is at 999.5. While he boasts lengthy connections to the Special One, AVB seems to be his own man and is charged with disarming and deconstructing the player cabal that runs the backroom at Chelsea - a unity engendered by Jose. He'll need specialised bomb defusal skills to do so as aggravating John Terry got first Jose and then Big Phil Scolari fired.

Everton: When will David Moyes' eyes finally pop out of his head for good?

It must be frustrating for the ginger man - to consistently assemble good players only to see them want to leave. And after ten years at Goodison Park, he's hardly a Bright Young Thing any more. He's happy in Liverpool, but for a man with tremendous competitive drive the sell-to-buy philosophy must be wearing. He'll probably stay with the Toffees for ages - because at this stage neither he, nor the club, can do better. It's a saddening state of affairs in Mersey's blue half.

Fulham: Where to now?

Fulham once again contest the Europa League after Roy Hodgson led them on a wild ride two seasons ago. Much as they loved that run, fans are already wondering if a second trip to watch their boys in the Ukraine is worth the outlay. The experienced Martin Jol has had success nearly everywhere he's been, however he must confront an ageing squad that takes longer to recover from Thursday night matches. Signing Palermo's teen Patjim Kasami should help, but other newbie John Arne Riise is already the wrong side of 30. Is two days' break enough?

Liverpool: Is King Kenny the Messiah?

The essence to success in video game Football Manager is simple: keep players happy. You do so by winning, praise and goals. While FM bears as much resemblance to the Real Thing as a smoked meat sandwich does to a hot dog, it does underline Kenny Dalglish's early "success" at Liverpool. He's played the kids, signed enough multi-skilled central midfielders to start his own cloning facility and given them targets to aim at in Luis Suarez, Andy Carroll and a reinvigorated Dirk Kuyt. To his credit, Kenny understands it's not rocket science but simple Human Resources.

Man. City: Is it finally my time?

Perhaps. As always the Citizens' fortunes rest on Carlos Tevez - only now, they don't depend on his on-pitch strut. A successful season behind Sergio Aguero, David Silva, Vincent Kompany and even Wesley Sneijder hangs on their ability to rid the dressing room of a malcontent and potential unsettling influence. If he stays, Tevez will contribute mightily but - because of his preference to work up front alone - perhaps at the cost of playing one of Aguero or Dzeko. If he leaves, he'll be replaced perhaps by that little-'n'-large show with Johnson & Silva out wide. It all sounds mouthwatering. Anything less than a Title challenge will disappoint.

Man. United: More important: Cleverley, Welbeck, Jones, Smalling, Gibson, Carrick or De Gea?

Surprisingly enough it's Tom Cleverley, who spent last season on loan at Wigan. Rewarded for an excellent Charity Shield with a call-up to the England squad, he - not Darron Gibson or Michael Carrick - is earmarked as Paul Scholes' successor. While David De Gea is young, he's also a work in progress and, as former coach Abel Resino says, will peak in a decade. He can't be expected to to be more than solid in his first year - especially as he doesn't speak English. Ferguson has invested for the far future between the sticks.

Part two will be published tomorrow.

An Arsenal, Barcelona and Fabregas love triangle

Arsenal, Cesc Fabregas and Barcelona could be the most public love triangle since Marilyn Monroe sang "Happy Birthday Mister President". It started with a sixteen year-old Fabregas moving to Arsenal from Barcelona and has dragged on interminably much of the past four years as player and boyhood club dream for his return to Catalonia. His story has dominated every transfer window - particularly summer - and public statements now lack all authenticity.

courtesy: the12thmanblog.com

He will soon play for Barca. Chiefs of Arsenal and Barcelona will put heads together in such a way that his move will be agreed, if not this window then next year. However, the conduct of many Spanish parties has hardly covered Catlonia with glory. Publicly, Barcelona haven't shied from announcing their interest and have made bids which would make Harry Redknapp blush. Their outward decrying of respect for Arsenal is undermined almost totally by their conduct - and a galling sense of entitlement to the player.

Xavi wants him to come home. Barcelona wants him back. In fact, all of Spain wants Cesc Fabregas in La Liga. Even if he wanted to stay in North London, the clamour has been such that he may feel a Second Coming is necessary. On Monday Arsene Wenger asked why nothing has been done about this overt solicitation of his two biggest stars, Fabregas and Samir Nasri. Well he may.

While not strictly "tapping up" - where a player is approached illegally by a suitor club while still under contract - one is almost always swayed by the opinions of friends and others who say they wish the best for you. At the end of his contract this time next year, should Nasri sign with either of the Manchester clubs then an English FA inquiry will almost certainly be summoned. With Fabregas, it's much more tricky however as such any tribunal would have to operate across Football Associations.

Though not strictly "illegal", Barcelona are leveraging every conscious and unconscious tool at their disposal to unsettle the player. It would be hard to prove that Barcelona have broken any laws and indeed they may well not have. Their actions definitely violate another of those "unspoken laws", that of the spirit of the game. Thus, potential offenders are difficult to prosecute.

courtesy: championsleaguetalk.com

It's unlikely anything much can be done. The Spanish FA are unlikely to sanction the guilty parties, partly because they are so because they couldn't be seen to punish popular World Cup Champion Xavi and they too have a vested interest in having Cesc Fabregas play in La Liga. Much of the recent activity based around Cesc has been driven by Xavi and Estanislau Fors i Garcia*, the mayor of Fabregas' Catalonian hometown, Arenys de Mar. So with the English FA having no jurisdiction on continental soil, FIFA navel-gazing and UEFA unwilling or unable to involve itself in football's on-beat policing, to who else can Arsenal complain?

With such incidents increasing in scope and frequency (think Federico Macheda, Paul Pogba and Gael Kakuta) then FIFA needs to step in. It's best if clubs police themselves through a formal framework. The only way to stamp this out is for yet another independent tribunal. Given the global reach of this issue, it must be orchestrated by FIFA. (Shudders violently) After it's second conscutive annus horribilis, this could be the first step in re-establishing FIFA's control of the game rather than just over its marketing rights.

*(Comparisons to kidnapping and slavery are of course ridiculous. Footballers sign contracts as independent businessmen, mostly advised by agents or parents, motivated by love and/or money.)

Arsene Wenger: trying times under the wage-cap

As his fief struggles under the weight of a popular uprising, Arsene Wenger's reign from a high castle somewhere in the vicinity of Highbury appears destined to begin a decline. He has reigned justly and in the beauty of esoteric splendour for fifteen years in North London but appears unable to still this latest unrest.

Very few managers in the game have his alchemical ability to consistently synthesise young superstars from mere talent. Over the past decade that talent has most notably taken the form of Cesc Fabregas, Jack Wilshere, Robin van Persie, Gael Clichy and Samir Nasri. Clichy has departed while popular punditry appear in accord that it is a matter of "when" and not "if" Fabregas and Nasri join them. Wenger has sold some of his charges willingly, such as when Thierry Henry and Aliaksandr Hleb departed Arsenal to join Barcelona. Others, like Nasri, he appears to want to keep close.

courtesy: en.wikipedia.org

As yet more Spanish players declare publicly Fabregas' burgeoning desire to play for his Catalan home club, Wenger's media comments seem more aggravated and weary than inspired. Considering his Northern nemesis, Sir Alex Ferguson, has never played the media or public better than when Wayne Rooney announced he wanted out of United in October last year, this may be a poor portent indeed.  The Rooney incident was over within ten days. Sir Alex's form as two years of Cristiano Ronaldo transfer rumours persisted was to become increasingly bombastic ("I wouldn't sell that mob a virus"). It seems Wenger has passed that stage (of grief?) and is now simply tired.

His more powerful declaration yesterday that "Big clubs don't sell their stars" is, for the most part, true. He has fought for three summers to retain captain Fabregas, while very few other global superstars move clubs without the vendors receiving way above market value. Unfortunately, he seems to be riding the misapprehension that Arsenal are a big club in the business of world football. That may not be true any more. Unfortunately, the Professor is handicapped by a wage ceiling, meaning he's unable to pay players more than ₤90,000 per week, comparative peanuts to the salaries doled out by the fiscal elite of world football.

While they remain one of the best ten teams in the world. that wage ceiling in itself earmarks Arsenal - a big, successful club with an enormous, loyal supporter base - as not being a member of the roundball financial elite. While he may decry "Big clubs don't sell their stars", it is without realising the fundamental fact that, until the new stadium is paid off and the wage ceiling disappears, the Gunners will be forced to sell their best players as they demand pay rises.  Financially, Arsenal aren't in the top five in the world (top ten, even) - meaning competing with cash-flush heavyweights automatically becomes that much more difficult.

Emirates stadium was designed to make Arsenal an economic superpower in the football world. In concert with continued investment from Stan Kroenke, the club may once again enter the elite echelon of football-nomics. But the precedents set by Chelsea, Real Madrid and Manchester City mean there is now a two-tier system even within the richest of the rich in football. And though Arsenal are among the wealthiest clubs in the world, they aren't a member of that select "billionaire's row".

Gooners should hope Wenger is not losing his fire, for to maintain their grip on the top four facing harsher mercantile realities than their competition, Arsenal will need him at his absolute best.

Jack Wilshere - more valuable for Arsenal or England?

A re-post of our article published on Soccerlens:

Jack Wilshere is the future. The chosen one, he’s the face of English football for the twenty-first century. Miraculously, he remains somewhat personally underexposed for the amount of hype that surrounds him. Without him, the future of both Arsenal and England seems less positive.

His rise has been meteoric. Two seasons ago he was a seventeen year-old making occasional Carling Cup appearances, whereas today he is first-choice for both club and country. People have lined up to douse him with praise, not least his managers Arsene Wenger and Fabio Capello. The future’s rosy, the future’s Wilshere.

But his wish to play in the Euroean Under-21 Championships this year has put Wilshere’s two footballing allegiances on a direct collision course. North London management has no desire to risk their prize asset suffering burn-out, injury or fatigue. In the eyes of Stuart Pearce and many others, he is England U21s best midfielder and hence the best chance of a podium finish at the tournament.

Which poses the question – is Jack Wilshere more valuable to England or to Arsenal?

There are many parallels between the Wilshere dilemma and that of Wayne Rooney 6-7 years ago – he is young, talented and enthusiastic about playing for both club and country. Their teams are/were in the Top Four and each represented the tantalising taste of a new, unscarred generation. Wilshere, like his now struggling colleague has the combination of exuberance, sublime skill and mongrel that has occasionally looked lacking in his teams and is so crucial to success – the mix to become a world-beater.

Since Rooney’s debut, the only potential world-beaters to debut for the Three Lions have been (maybe) Arsenal teammate Theo Walcott and custodian Joe Hart. Other England debutants have been functional and usually leading premiership players but most often limited; Jack Wilshere’s recent displays in white mean he should be among the first midfielders Capello selects.

Not only is it Wilshere’s talent and potential that’s vital to England, but also what he represents. Jack Wilshere is the first of his U21 brethren to make the leap to full International regular. Though it’s likely, Wilshere isn’t necessarily even the most talented player of his generation either, just the first to make his mark on the international stage and therefore the best for his age. He is a glimpse into the future of England football, impossible to ignore. Jack Wilshere needs to play for England not for Fabio Capello, Arsene Wenger or even himself, but for English football fans.

The word talisman is overused in football – “As Zidane goes, so does France”. “As Cantona performs, so do United”. Though those two players properly defined the word talisman, they could also simply be known as instrumental in performance. The word is belittled when lower echelon players are dubbed a talisman rather than instrumental. Wilshere’s importance for the national setup has now transcended his increasingly important performances on the pitch and he has become a talisman of things to come.

This may be true of England, but what of Arsenal? Their case is also based on what he represents: a local boy with the talent to stamp his authority on a famous club with an equally famous (and expensive) lineup. It could be that his value for Arsenal, moreso than England, depends on his performances simply because there would seem to be greater central midfield depth. This depth comes from players in their prime, like Fabregas, Song and Nasri or the potential of Aaron Ramsey, Henri Lansbury and even Abou Diaby.

Jack the Lad’s skill/mongrel ratio is weighted differently from each Arsenal’s midfielders and his enthusiasm and work ethic allow him a unique role and thus able to fit in seamlessly with all of Wenger’s other options. He is so treasured by Arsenal supporters (host of the Arsenal podcast The Tuesday Club Alan Davies recently said he wouldn’t swap Wilshere for Andres Iniesta) because he forms with Nasri and Fabregas a vital component in a troika of midfield poisons of which an opponent must choose one. Of course England relies on his performances as well, but for the Gunners faithful, they know they have a player on whom they can rely.

The question presents an unthinkable and theoretical choice, but it may be England’s bigger picture need which means Wilshere is more valuable to the Three Lions than for Arsenal. If only for reasons of depth – while Lampard, Gerrard and Barry drift into the ether, Wilshere has been anointed to pick up the pieces, perhaps even as captain.

At Arsenal, he is supported by the high-profile-but-still-amazingly-young trio Fabregas, Ramsey and Nasri. Song and Diaby remain in their early or mid-twenties, where Lansbury and Miyaichi look to follow his lead. Wilshere’s value to Arsenal is immense – measurable only by a fictional, guesstimated transfer price (40-50 million pounds perhaps, in the unthinkable situation of him wanting out of Arsenal). He may not be replaceable, but there is more fertile soil for Wenger to plough in search of a substitute. For England, he is new hope. Can you measure that?