International break? Give me a break!

It’s international week again and, for the fourth time in as many months since the Euros, the football world lets out a collective “meh”.

Today’s friendlies mean nothing to anyone.  Except apparently FIFA, who decided to schedule a round of non-competition internationals to fuel their dual fantasy that International friendlies are as important to crowds as the local stuff.

It’s not that friendlies aren’t important, but poorly timed.  English Premier League clubs have managed eleven league matches each since the season began in August.  By today’s end, we will have seen seven international matches.   Joe Hart, the England goalkeeper, has already played 26 matches since June.

In November, you can be certain of three things: that some domestic seasons are just getting interesting (like the English Premiership or the A-League, where league saviour Alessandro Del Piero’s coach has just resigned), that playoffs are in full swing (as with the Asian Champions League and MLS) and that Chelsea  have begun their annual holiday.

In arranging this new slate of games, FIFA’s reasoning is almost sound.  They finds themselves trapped in a corner of a world demanding constant attention: with a six month break between matches, the administrators risk the International game being even further overshadowed by local affairs.   It’s not too long a bow to draw to suggest a random football fan from Jamaica, Uzbekistan or Egypt knows more about this year’s UEFA Champions League machinations than their home nation’s last friendly result.  Their half-baked solution?  More international football.

The fact is that the marketplace is flooded with football.  You’d think the market is so large that flooding it would be something of a logical impossibility, but you’d be wrong.  Almost without exception, every domestic league in the world has operated within the past month; not only were the European Championships this summer, but also the Olympics and the annual Carlos Tevez transfer saga. 

Football fans have had no respite from Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Sasa Ognenovski and Ashley Cole’s Twitter account for over a year.

International football is, simply, a wonderful product.  The World Cup is a celebration of football the Champions League Final can never replicate.  Almost every major International tournament comes with a wholesome quality lacking when players are bought or sold for exorbitant sums.  You can think of International football as Organic football, taking time and care to mature.

Those who control future international fixturing now face a decision.  When controlling such a unique (organic) product, you can approach the market in one of two ways: make your offering boutique and desirable, or compete against products which are different/plastic/a billionaire’s playground (delete as appropriate). 

International football should always be relevant; however, competing with a glitzier – but not necessarily better – product, it has fallen into byline territory.  It’s time for football federations the world over to market International football as what it is: a boutique product that offers much that the domestic game cannot.

Euro 2012 Final preview

As we regard the Euro 2012 final, it's apparent that we will watch the tournament's two most irresistible sides. Spain have for four years been the international game's standard, a gestalt of tiki-taka, creation and industry. Italy, too, have been utterly compelling; where Spain have over a dozen world-class talents to call upon, arguably the Azzurri boast only a handful – their achievement has come primarily through unity, adaptability and system.

To some observers, their group clash was the best match of the tournament. Since then, the Italians have moved from unknown quantity to having a real puncher's chance at taking the Championship.

Italy manager Cesare Prandelli went into the tournament expecting to play a 4-4-2 with players rotating through a midfield diamond but opted for an unfamiliar 3-5-2 in Italy's opening matches against Spain and Croatia. When this proved only functional versus the Croats, Prandelli went back to his favoured formation which consequently produced sterling results against England and Germany. How they'll line up on Sunday is still unknown, neither formation would surprise.

Tactically, Italy are likely to attempt to free their key midfielders Andrea Pirlo and Daniele De Rossi. De Rossi plays deeper and has struggled to play the full ninety minutes on occasion; Pirlo, the team's creative hub, has been the tournament's best – if not necessarily it's most important – player. The only suggestion Italy may opt for the 3-5-2 again is to offer this duo more protection from a Spanish philosophy based almost entirely upon retrieving possession as soon as it is lost.

Almost to a man, Spain are circuitous, dutiful pests. They discombobulate opponents with tricksy approach patterns amid waves of possession seemingly engineered by Phil Spector. Possession is both weapon and targe; a plastic object moulded and shaped into beautiful creation.

Spain are likely to stick to their favoured 4-3-2-1. Their only question is whether to opt for a true centre-forward or keep Cesc Fabregas out of position as a False 9. With his choices in the semi-final – Alvaro Negredo, who was only mediocre before being subbed early for Fabregas – del Bosque appears to have made his decision. The presence of Fabregas could be crucial in pressuring Pirlo and De Rossi, while also allowing Andrés Iniesta to advance forward and create.

It's worth noting however that Spain have often looked best after withdrawing one of Iniesta, Fabregas or Silva and employing either Barcelona's Pedro or Sevilla's Jesús Navas as out-and-out wide players. This is probably because each triumvir prefers to operate in the centre of the park, while Pedro and Navas earn their coin down the flanks. It isn't that Iniesta or Fabregas can't do so – but that they prefer the field's centre.

Both teams have developed their own effective methods of pacifying their opposition; the most important factor in producing a win from that power-position is the generation of goals. Perhaps the greatest fundamental difference between the two finalists is in each team's ability to draw a goal from the ether: in Antonio Cassano and Mario Balotelli. Prandelli's two forwards have probably been two of the tournament's best and their mere presence – backed by impressive spells by Alessandro Diamanti and Riccardo Montolivo – mean the Italians can feel confident of scoring.

More than perhaps any other team, this Spain team lend themselves to analogy, simile and cliché. Pass and move. Death by a thousand cuts. They pass you to death. Metronomes. Boa Constrictors. They use Alan Rickman's spoon. They possess column inches and bandwidth like they do the football. A win would place them firmly among the best sides of all time, yet they've never had an iconic opponent or truly “all-time” match.

Sunday promises to be that mountaintop.

Cometh the hour, cometh Prandelli

While Mario Balotelli once again proved he has enough talent to justify any of his off-field misdemeanours and Gigi Buffon has intimated that all he's still the silent member of the World's Best Goalkeeper club, the man most crucial to Italy's semi-final triumph wasn't a player but their manager, Cesare Prandelli.

Prandelli has achieved an Italian harmony through measures both regulation and unorthodox. He ha changed formation as required – employing Daniele De Rossi as a libero in a 3-5-2 – as well as deployed Serie A's most effective as his stalwarts, regardless of repute. However, what has set him apart has been his deft handling of a forward corps brimming with unharnessed, childlike energy.

Few managers have managed to obtain the best from Balotelli. However, without him the Italians would tonight start to return home to start their holidays. When at midseason Balotelli indulged his amusing wilful streak, he found himself banished from the Italian team with only an even chance of making the squad for Euro 2012. However, with time he was reintegrated into the Azzurri squad and has formed its most potent attacking weapon thus far.

A potential collaboration between Mario and the man he superseded as the enfant terrible of calcio? The stuff of Marcello Lippi's sweat-drenched nightmares? Rather than fearing a situation of knucklehead-squared, Prandelli has with an attitude of easygoing respect made that couplet not just workable but fearsome, all silky skill and unpredictability.

If Lippi wouldn't countenance leading his line with the terrible twosome, backing them up with the venerable Antonio Di Natale would have been an act of fevered imagination. Yet when Balotelli hobbled from the field with cramp against Germany, the manager turned not to a defensive option but to the diminutive Udinese marksman. This is indicative not simply of the faith he has in Di Natale, but of a changed culture around the Azzurri.

The mark of an excellent coach is that they achieve buy-in from their players.  From the way that Italy plays - from the performances he's mustered from players as wide-ranging as Andrea Pirlo, Buffon, Emanuele Giaccherini, Thiago Motta and, ultimately, Balotelli - it's obvious that he has his men completely invested in his gameplan, and he himself as leader.

A sense of controlled adventure is encouraged, an endeavour that has served them well against Spain and Germany. It appears an entirely different side from the one that didn't make it out of their World Cup 2010 group. That was disgruntled side who were trying to get back to where they once had been; this one has accepted that rejuvenation was inevitable and embraced it. That open attitude is engendered by the mangement of Cesare Prandelli.

Euro 2012: On Spain and Popular Culture

When the immortal celluloid “Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves” flickered onto my television screen last year, I got quite excited. Carefree days of sixth grade came flooding into my mind, so I decided a re-viewing was in order.

It was rubbish.

It was typical, arch Costner replete with florid dialogue, a full-scale Swiss Family Robinson tree house in twelfth century Britain and Brian Blessed dying very early. Let's not even mention Celts making the unlikely silent pilgrimage from Wales to England's Midlands so as to attack said treehouse.

And the less we talk about Costner's mullet, the better.

However, re-watching left me in no doubt as to the film's best line, delivered in a cadence that linguists can only describe as Ultimate Rickman: “Locksley … I'm gonna cut your heart out with a spoon!”

In contrast, the novel “The Princess Bride” features the Spaniard fencing wizard Inigo Montoya. After watching his father cut down by the evil Count Rugen, the boy Inigo spends his entire life practising sword fighting so as to take his revenge. By the book's conclusion, Inigo cuts out his opponent's heart out so deftly, so precisely, that Rugen is able to keep fighting until the killing stroke. Montoya had planned this so Rugen could experience the same as heartbreak and pain he had felt as a boy.

So why is this relevant?

Because Spain, the best international team we've seen in years, have played throughout Euro 2012 balancing uneasily between the two. The Spanish midfield conjures memories of Inigo Montoya's ruthless precision, while their conversion rate (11.9%) exhibits spoon-like execution. Rather than Spanish forwards merely lacking a sharp edge, for all their time in possession – 221+ minutes over four games – la Furia Roja have mustered only 67 shots. In comparison, semi-final opponents Portugal have had the ball for only 166 minutes for seventy shots.

Like Inigo Montoya, Xavi, Iniesta and Xabi Alonso cut the heart from their opponent; but when it comes time for the killing blow, they discard Montoya's magnificent weapon and pick up a Rickmanesque spoon.

Going back over Euro 2012, we've posted several times about Spain failing to adequately capitalise upon their possession. With David Villa missing, manager Vicente del Bosque hasn't used Fernando Llorente, apparently distrusts Alvaro Negredo like a bent bishop while Fernando Torres has regressed almost into a glint in the eye. Their continued dominance while carrying baggage like this is nothing short of amazing. Even devoid of top class strikers they are indomitable – but not undefeatable.

The time has come for del Bosque to use his squad depth. It is time for Llorente, the target man who looks like an inverted pyramid and whose finishing instincts (and luxurious bouffant) have him desired across Europe. It is time for Spain to stamp their authority on Euro 2012 and well past time for Spain to put away Rickman's spoon.

What if Cristiano Ronaldo played for Australia?

http://dayhairstyles.blogspot.com

A relatively obscure fact about Cristiano Ronaldo is that he was once – a long time ago – eligible to represent Australia. His grandparents live in Perth, Australia's westernmost outpost, the most remote city in the world. It's not known if the Football Federation of Australia explored “recruiting” him, but it's highly unlikely given how passionately he represents Portugal. Greece forward Giorgos Samaras and Turkey defender Ersan Gülüm likewise have chosen other nations over Australia.

However, even had he chosen the green and gold of the Socceroos rather than his Iberian homeland, Ronaldo may well have not been accepted as easily as you'd think. We'd love his pace, skill, aggression and athleticism – but could Australians stand his hair? Certainly, many find his predilection for product rather unnerving; Ronaldo is undoubtedly one of the best footballers of all time, but often takes the field looking as if he's dipped his hair in a bucket of furniture varnish.

He certainly likes to stand out, and unfortunately that can lead to being lampooned just because you're confident enough to do so.  It's a good thing his ego appears puncture-proof.

This takes nothing away from his skill or achievement. But Australia, home of “Tall Poppy Syndrome” and about as cynical a country as you could find, doesn't tolerate sporting prima donnas particularly well. Much about Ronaldo has a touch of the diva: from his personal grooming habits to his demonstrative body language.  I'm honestly not sure how well he would fit with Lucas Neill or Sasa Ognenovski.

He'd be welcome, of course – Australia have sought a forward who can score like him since the game was invented.  Plus, who wouldn't want Cristiano Ronaldo apart from Sandro Rosell? That said, as Harry Kewell (Australian football's biggest ego) found out when playing the diva in the early part of last century, the acclimatisation process would probably be quite rough.

MLS: a taste of the Euros

Last night I saw the Seattle Sounders play Sporting Kansas City in a thoroughly enjoyable MLS encounter. It started uneasily,  however, as on a very pleasant Seattle evening we traipsed down to SoDo.

The trip involved me fielding several obvious-but-unhelpful statements from my companions, mutterings like “It's not like the Premier League” or “I'd rather watch the European Championships”.

 When the whistle sounded to end the tie, we'd taken in slice of everything we'd seen over the past two days of the Euros.

 Firstly, defender Paul Ianni scored a goal that reminded me of Zlatan Ibrahimovic's masterful strike for Sweden against France – one legged and using all his martial arts ability to stabilise his upper body while channelling all his power into his striking leg.

 In front of 47,000 singing fans – nearly the same attendance as saw England defeat Ukraine – Sporting Kansas City managed to grab an early goal, before Ianni's set-piece strike levelled the match in the fifteenth minute.

 In the second half, the match first appeared as if Seattle would dominate possession and the match as Sporting KC were pegged back by an impressive Sounders midfield. The ex-Wizards looked most likely to pinch a winning goal by quick ball movement on the counter-attack, which again reminiscent of so many teams throughout Euro 2012.

As if consciously mimicking yesterday's match between the Ukraine and England, a crucial goal (in this case the potential game-winner from Fredy Montero) became more transparent - most of the ball crossed the line, but not all - and we had ourselves a ghost goal.

 There was also plenty o' niggle, as KC persistently fouled a more fleet-footed Sounders attack; the fulminating when Seattle sub Alvaro Fernandez was sent off with a straight red in the ninety-first minute.

I didn't have to temper my companions' expectations when the game finished, just sit back and enjoy my beer as they enthused about our shared spectacle.

 It was a match that had everything that football can provide. The Euros have been fantastic, and it's been great to see the sport receive all the attention such a tournament deserves, but to think of MLS as a poor relation is unfair and patronising. MLS is what it is – a retirement investment, a development league, an enviable top tier. It is many things to many people, and is now creating its own impressive identity because of that multicultural background.

What happened to Holland?

Courtesy: thearmchairpundits.com

The Netherlands whimpered one final time, threw up their hands and now stumble away from Northern Europe. Three losses in a tough group has left the Dutch with fractured egos, a burnished reputation and questions as to the continued viability of employing manager Bert van Marwijk. Eviction from the tournament was always a possibility, especially in a group in which they were drawn against three other top-ten teams. However, the manner of their dismissal should be cause for extreme conern.

A constant tone of discontent undermined the tenuous harmonies of South Africa, goalkeeper Maarten Stekelenburg played all three matches despite poor play and two quality replacements, the Dutch defence showed as much resilience as a wet rolling paper and key players like Robin van Persie and Wesley Sneijder showed only a fraction of their full qualities.

Should he have any hope of retaining his position, van Marwijk will have to talk very hard – and potentially very quickly – to justify his creation: a dysfunctional iteration of the Dutch national team. Under his watch, Holland have displayed sublime talent, occasional violent streaks and a penchant for restlessness.

Any hopes of the Oranje making the same impact as in the 2010 World Cup was improbable almost as soon as the tournament began. Starting left-back Erik Pieters withdrew because of injury, while central defender Joris Mathijsen appeared unable to recover from an injury suffered playing for his club side. Despite a strong qualification campaign, Dutch achievements from two years ago appeared an effort of overachievement.

Alternative XI: Euro 2012 Overachievers

As is usual for a major tournament, Euro 2012 has allowed us to witness the full spectrum of players from World's Best to those who walk a matter of metres to the ground that's always been their home. This tournament, we've had the opportunity to see players previously anonymous make a stamp on the football world – in fact, many of the best performed players aren't paid by Real Madrid, Liverpool or Juventus, but by smaller clubs. The tournament is made brighter by those who rise from anonymity.

Here's a previously relatively-unheralded XI who've made their name at Euro 2012:

GK – Przemyslaw Tyton (Poland): Despite entering the year the fourth-choice Poland keeper, made himself a home-country hero by saving a penalty with his first touch of the tournament. Whether he is replaced by the shaky but better-credentialled Wojciech Szczesny is now a legitimate question, a prospect unthinkable before the tournament.

RB – Theodore Gebre Selassie (Czech Republic): Kills the grass on the right side of the pitch at Slovan Liberec, who will compete in the 2012-13 Champions League after winning the Czech Gambrinus Liga. The might do so without their right back, who will doubtless have admirers after his two performances so far at Euro 2012.

CB – Mats Hummels (Germany): How can the most desired young centre-back in world football, playing for the second-best attended club in Europe, be classified as an emerging player? Simple: Mats Hummels is elegant on the ball and resolute off it and gets his work done with the absolute minimum of fuss without courting attention at all. Releasing him will haunt Bayern Munich for years.

CB – Damien Perquis (Poland): Perquis came so close to snatching a win for Poland against Russia while keeping the tricksy combo of Dzagoev and Arshavin from wreaking havoc in the Poland defence. He'll should be acquired by larger French club from Sochaux on the back of his impressive Euros.

LB – Vaclav Pilar (Czech Republic): Pilar has scored twice so far at Euro 2012 and looks to be another smart piece of scouting by Bundesliga club Wolfsburg, who have already arranged for his transfer from Viktoria Plzen.

RM – Mathieu Debuchy (France): It's no wonder he's been linked with clubs as storied as Manchester United and Barcelona. Although typically a right-sided defender, he plays with such attacking zest he fits in well here in the midfield. He was probably the player of the match in France's first match against England despite flying under the radar until Lille's emergence last season.

CM – Roman Shirokov (Russia): Practised Russian football observers such as James Appell tipped the thirty-year old as Russia's breakout player. He lasted all of one match at Euro 2008 at centre-back, but links the beaters in defence (Berezeutsky and Ignashevich) with the seeker in attack (Arshavin and Dzagoev).

CM – Niki Zimling (Denmark): His injury in Denmark's second match allowed the Portuguese a much easier run in the midfield than Danish coach Morten Olson had hoped. Regaining him for their crucial encounter with Germany will be crucial Danish hopes of advancing

LM – Andriy Yarmolenko (Ukraine): The resounding flop of Andriy Shevchenko at Chelsea may have previously kept “the new Shevchenko” at Dynamo Kiev. After wrong-footing a redoubtable Sweden defence on many occasions in the Ukraine's first match, he's unlikely to be playing domestic ball for much longer.

AM – Michael Krohn-Dehli (Denmark): Fizzed the ball between Dutch 'keeper Maarten Stekelenburg's legs to win the Danes their first game of the tournament and leave the Oranje reeling. A constant worker so far this tournament and able to put together moments of brilliance despite middling club form at Brondby.

FC – Mario Mandzukic (Croatia): Took two quality goals in Croatia's first match against Ireland to put the Balkan nation in a great position in a tough group. Another discovery by the tireless Wolfsburg scouting system, he doesn't get much press despite scoring twenty times last season.  

Ukraine heat a portent of 2022 World Cup

While England and France slugged out a draw in Donetsk, much the same occurred two days prior some distance from the Ukraine. The likes of James Milner appeared totally spent with temperatures reaching 33^o celsius in oppressive conditions.

On Saturday, the Australian Socceroos played Oman in their first 2014 World Cup Qualifier. The match was played in Oman, a hope, skip and Ashley Young dive away from Qatar – the site for the 2022 World Cup. With a 5pm kickoff, temperatures reached a rash-inducing 41^o celsius. The argument that "it's a dry heat" is quite nonsensical: when the Weather Channel says it feels like it's 46° outside, it doesn't matter whether the humidity scale is at 6% or 60.

In the first eleven days of June, Muscat recorded eight days where the mercury raised above 37^o; the lowest maximum temperature was 35^o. The average June temperature in Muscat is 39^o. Even more amusingly, 75% of June days are officially categorised as “hot”; the rest (24.6%) are officially classified as “sweltering”.

In news likely to cause players from cooler climes to melt like so many Wicked Witches of the West – I'm looking at you, Scotland – the maximum temperature in Donetsk today did not reach the minimum temperature in Muscat.

It's summer in the Northern Hemisphere. It's hot. Players expect to play in uncomfortable conditions and expect a quick turnaround time between games. However, hosting a major tournament in heat such as this is patently ridiculous, as is moving the tournament to winter to accommodate its fabulously wealthy hosts.

Never mind tough laws, designated drinking zones and the occupational health and safety of players, but fan health simply must have been more of a consideration before FIFA awarded Qatar the Cup.

If you can't take the heat, keep the World Cup out of the Gulf States.

Torres' role reduced again for Spain

The man they miss with the man whose form they miss
courtesy: worldcupblog.org

Spain manager Vicente del Bosque opted to start yesterday's match against Italy with four defenders and six midfielders. Ostensibly, Cesc Fabregas started up front – and indeed found himself forward more often than his midfield counterparts and scored his country's goal.

 It's unlikely Fabregas will start as far forward of the ball for the entire tournament given that Italy's unusual 3-5-2 formation (with a libero!) contributed to Spain's unfamiliar team selection. But rather than shoehorn a poorly-fitting player into the side in the name of orthodoxy, del Bosque announced that Spain's gameplan doesn't require the prototypical “no. 9”. Also, by not deploying Torres in his favoured role, he also tacitly admitted that he views the Chelsea man as a player only to be used in the right circumstance.

 Bountiful Spanish midfield quality suggests a replacement for David Villa is a luxury rather than an immediate necessity. Were Spain only to create six shots a game, an penalty box predator would be crucial. But by employing the pass 'n' press, Spain can philosophically expect to dominate possession against every team they play; they are likely to create enough chances against harried defenders from which a midfielder like Fabregas, Iniesta or Silva can score.

 This is the form and model of play which has seen Spain win their past two major tournaments. It is also the model in which Fernando Torres now struggles heftily. While serving his country well at Euro 2008, and despite the greatest collection of providers any striker could want, Fernando Torres' confidence issues meant he couldn't play the same role in South Africa and still can't now.

 Torres' Chelsea form this season was fair, at best. He played better as Chelsea reverted to a counter-attacking side, but still patently can't find his strutting best.

 Because Spain so dominate the ball, del Bosque now sees Torres almost exclusively as a player whose best use is in exploiting overextended defences; a player to be brought on fresh for the last twenty minutes when the game naturally produces more chances. His form has regressed to the point where he's now only a player to be used in one situation, a luxury. According to Sid Lowe of The Guardian, del Bosque said as much in his post-match press conference.

 This is a story simply because of Torres' reputation; on form he deserves to be in the squad, but hardly a shoo-in for selection. Spain still have Fernando Llorente and Alvaro Negredo to use at centre-forward. However, without a more clinical edge in front of goal, Spain's goal of a third successive major tournament victory becomes more difficult.

Lookalike: Giorgos Karagounis

This is the kind of lookalike that could only come from a football-loving powernerd who boasts a vast familiarity with the works of deceased Gallic graphic novelists.

Greece captain Giorgos Karagounis scored the opening goal of Euro 2004, has captained his nation many times and is only four caps from becoming Greece's all-time leader in games played.  Despite advancing years, he's still the most crucial link in the Greece midfield.  He represents Greece better than their politicians.

And, he couldn't look more stereotypically Greek; the proof comes from Goscinny & Uderzo's 1968 masterpiece Asterix at the Olympic Games.  I think he's the second spartan from the right.

click to enlarge

Original photos above are thanks to: sportcafe24.com and asterix.com

Euro 2012: Easier to win than the World Cup?

Conventional wisdom suggests the European Football Championships are harder to win than the World Cup. There's reason behind this: despite increased familiarity with staff and styles, all teams come from a strong FIFA confederation and this means fewer easy wins and more Groups of Potential Fatality.

We can take a look at the final set of FIFA World Rankings before a tournament to suggest the quality of each field. These rankings are about as foolproof as a Bond villain's plan or FIFA's internal governance, but they are still the best mathematical evaluation available. (Even still, I won't ever believe the United States were ever the fourth-best team in the world). Also, given they are chundered out by computer according to wonderfully complex formulae each month, in theory they are equally uneven.

The table below suggests how powerful each tournament since the start of the millennium has been, using average and median FIFA ranks as a guide. A low average suggests a stronger field, a low median suggests that more of the world's elite teams took part.

Tournament	Teams	Average FIFA rank	Median FIFA rank	Alleged Easybeat
Euro 2000	16	15.3	12.5	Slovenia, rank 45
2002 World Cup	32	21.8	21.5	China, rank 50
Euro 2004	16	20.8	17	Latvia, rank 52
2006 World Cup	32	33.5	24.5	Togo, rank 61
Euro 2008	16	20.4	11	Austria, rank 101
2010 World Cup	32	26.0	19.5	North Korea, rank 105
Euro 2012	16	16.6	11.5	Poland, rank 65

As you can see, the average FIFA rank for the past two World Cups has raised markedly as more nations outside FIFA's top 20 obtained qualification. This of course doesn't take into account home-field advantage, which will surely serve Poland well in this tournament. These numbers are also somewhat swayed: each team wins games in order to qualify, which in turn boosts their world ranking.

According to FIFA's boffins, Euro 2012 could be the strongest tournament since Euro 2000.

Capello's greatest failing

With Fabio Capello’s recent statements to the Italian media concerning John Terry’s fatal reign as England captain, he has once again displayed his most obvious characteristic as England manager.  Although no-one has tipped England to succeed later this year, Euro 2012 betting markets have become less murky in recent days – why would you bet on a team that can’t win? 

As a squad devoid of leadership, England can’t win anything.

The Italian General has said he has little regard for who wears the England armband.  His most public statements to that effect were two years ago after he removed Terry from the captaincy in the aftermath of the Wayne Bridge affair.  Capello has since backtracked on that decision, reinstating Terry only thirteen months later – a period in which the player attempted a poorly-marshalled coup d’etat during the 2010 World Cup.

As soon as this occurred, Capello lost much of his credibility as England’s leader.  What little repute remained has since evaporated.  To openly disagree with the FA’s decision smacks of a double-standard: he removed Terry because he thought him “divisive” – seemingly failing to understand the gravitas of the current allegations thrown Terry’s way.   

Now it appears he sacked Terry from a leadership position two years ago because he had transgressed Fabio’s moral code.  Terry now faces a charge arguably far worse than the allegations of early 2010, meaning Capello has flip-flopped like a revolving door.  An appropriate term, because it also describes his selection policy. 

Capello has been uniformly inconsistent almost since arriving on English shores.  It has been his greatest failing and has undermined his leadership to the point where now there is an enormous void at the top of the English coaching tree. 

In his great book “The Coach: Managing for Success”, master-manager Ric Charlesworth lists the five traits that a coach simply must display.  He says that a manager must be knowledgeable; diligent; open and flexible; honest and consistent.  While scoring highly for many of these characteristics, Capello fails miserably on the last.  In so doing, his entire role has been negated.  Players look to a manager for dependability - the England mob has failed to receive.

This has never been more apparent than in the curious case of the captaincy.  One moment he cares about who is captain and the next he does not.  At any point John Terry could be integral to the team or irrelevant.  His team selections have vacillated between the uber-experienced and the untested.  There has been little discernible method to Capello’s war-room, but simply reactionary moves that don’t behove his status as a coaching great.

In simplest terms, inconsistency from above indicates an absence of leadership.  Because of this, England will splutter and drown at Euro 2012.

Guus Hiddink leaves Turkey: He's just not that into you

Guus Hiddink's reign as manager of Turkey has ended with nary a whimper. His tenure faded ignominiously into the Black and Aegean Seas: Turkey received 3-0 losses in both legs of the Euro 2012 qualification playoffs from a journeyman Croatia side. He's now a free agent and joins Carlo Ancelotti as the biggest - and most marketable - free agent in his profession.

It would surprise no-one were he to return to Chelsea in a Director's role, creating with Andre Villas-Boas a management "Dream Team". Rumours of him taking over as manager, however, are greatly overstated.

It was always likely Hiddink would depart the Bosphorus nation should Turkey fail to qualify. This is in part due to his meandering nature and wandering eye; also because it became apparent nearly from the start that this partnership wasn't nearly as affectionate as past flings with Russia, Chelsea, PSV, Australia and South Korea. Fittingly, in his last home match, he was booed by Turkish crowds.

For the first time in the decade since he ascended from "coach" to "miracle worker", he's criticised his former employers on departure, saying Turkish youth development pathways weren't of sufficient standard for consistent performance at international level.

It marked the second time that Hiddink leaves Turkey without adding to his reputation: in 1991 he was dismissed from Fenerbahçe with a win rate of only 40%. In seventeen games with the Ay Yıldızlılar, he compiled an patchy seven wins, five draws and five losses (41.18%). Both numbers stand well below his career win percentage of 56.52.

Questions are now being asked if the Dutchman's magic has worn thin. His last two jobs have finished unsatisfactorily with Russia and Turkey enduring qualification playoff defeats. Even understanding the "Fool me once, fool me twice" mindset, this analysis is premature and, at worst, a little mean-spirited. As in most break-ups, both parties eventually realised they were just wrong for each other in the first place.

Looking at his greatest achievements (with the exception of his first stint at PSV), Hiddink and his teams have performed best when unfancied and under little pressure. It should be the first rule of football - never bet against a Guus Hiddink team.

Over the last decade, he coaxed a Euro 2008 semi-final berth out of Russia when outsiders didn't know what to expect. When expectations rose after players like Arshavin and Pavlyuchenko got moves to high-profile clubs, the squad underperformed and went down to Slovenia in a winner-takes-all bout over two legs for a place at the 2010 World Cup.

At Chelsea, he was recruited to salvage the season after Luis Felipe Scolari's dismissal. With minimal pressure - it was a temporary appointment and everyone was aware the title had long gone - he once again attained maximal results.

His quotes on masterminding a gritty, but not overly talented Australia to the second round of the 2006 Cup could define his coaching career: "Our goal is the second round. Why not?" Fourth place in 2002 with then-tiny South Korea was nigh-on miraculous. By fostering belief in his players, Guus Hiddink has spent the past decade getting the best out of underdogs with reasonable expectations.

After a stupendous Euro 2008, both Turkey and Russia had reason to be ambitious in expectation. However, this was followed by failure to qualify for South Africa despite quality players and enviable home-field advantages. It should have worked - but didn't. No-one manages expectation like Hiddink - so when it becomes rampant, his work becomes more difficult and less masterly in its execution.

We'll see Guus Hiddink again soon. Rumours persist of a 22 million pound offer to manage Anzhi Makhachkala. If he cares to protect his Lama-like coaching reputation, he won't take that job. It's too glitzy, too dangerous and just not his type.

Spain's Second XI worthy of top 10 ranking

While watching David Silva and Spain dismantle a dogged and compact Scotland on Wednesday, it struck me: this was hardly Spain's best outfit and they were dominating.

Silva cemented his bona fides as one of the top half-dozen players in world football and Spain, with a team featuring second-choice players like Thiago Alcantara, Jordi Alba and Santi Cazorla, passed Scotland into an uneasy submission. The Scots, bless 'em, tried hard but the Spaniards seemed at times to be playing not just another game, but on another plane.

The players who didn't feature on Tuesday - Torres, Casillas, Xabi Alonso, Iniesta, Mata - mean it's now apparent that Spain's second XI could be one of the world's ten best international outfits. They are helped by a healthy youth league and a relative dearth of great opposition: realistically, only the Netherlands and Germany are able to hold a candle to the Spaniards. Brazil and Argentina today only resemble their most terrifying best.

courtesy: sparklingchelsea.wordpress.com

The FIFA world rankings (hardly the greatest indicator, but the only one we've got) suggest the world's top ten sides are Spain, the Netherlands, Germany, Uruguay, Portugal, Italy, Brazil, England, Croatia and Argentina.

In living up to their position description as confusing and nonsensical, the FIFA rankings have Croatia ranked ninth and Greece sitting in eleventh position. This is in spite of both squads finding themselves in the same qualifying group for Euro 2012; a group from which Greece qualified and Croatia now face a tricky playoff tie with Turkey.

We can, however, suggest this is a fairly accurate representation of the best teams in world football.

Were Spain's Second XI to feature in the FIFA rankings, they'd come up against three great teams (Germany, the Netherlands and Uruguay), two inconsistent ones (the other South Americans) and four eminently beatable squads, each with major weaknesses. Apart from perhaps a perceived weakness in central defence, Spain II play a similar brand of football to their first-choice brethren, have pace in abundance and, as they showed on Tuesday, discipline.

Using Spain's favoured 4-2-3-1, the second furia roja would probably include: Valdes; Alba, Jose Enrique, Alvaro Arbeloa and Raul Albiol; Thiago, Javi Martinez, Cesc Fabregas, Santi Cazorla and Pedro; and Fernando Llorente.

Wow.

The argument could be made that this team also features some of the best players dozen players in Spain. In this lineup Pedro plays for the "magoos", yet started in their World Cup triumph last year - superseded by Mata and Silva. Valdes' recent success in head-to-head battles with Casillas now invites, rather than discourages, comparison between the two. Fabregas is shuttled out of the Spain midfield (as with club) by players comfortably in the World's top five. Spain has played better recently when Llorente - rather than Torres - has led the line.

This club may even trouble the the vaunted Spain first team. The Spain Second XI are, on paper, a better team than Croatia, Portugal and even Italy. Place Spain v2.0 in any one of the Euro 2012 qualifying groups (and back them with suitable squad depth) and they at least make the playoffs from each. It's probably also the case that they'd slice England to pieces also.

The simile used most with Spain (and Barcelona) is "death by one thousand cuts". Perhaps a more appropriate metaphor may be that Spanish football is at present drowning the rest of the football world - inexorably, constrictingly and (given their outstanding Euro U-21 campaign) shows no signs of receding. All that is certain is the next wave of Spanish attacks could well overwhelm a struggling Scot, Lithuanian or even Oranje. After decades of torment, La Furia Roja is certainly making up for lost time.

While going back-to-back-to-back at major tournaments is so difficult that it's spoke of in grail-like reverence, the smart money for next year's Euros is on a three-peat - perhaps simply because the difficulty of staying focused for such a period is balanced by the failure of chief rivals Germany and the Netherlands to bridge the gaping talent gap.

Death, taxes and Capello's England

Fabio Capello's England squad comes with several un-surprises: Rio Ferdinand has been omitted, as has Liverpool's Steven Gerrard. Forgive me, but I need a couple of minutes to deal with that overwhelming shock. (Picks self slowly off floor). Injury has rendered Ferndinand a poor imitation of his former commanding self; Gerrard has played two matches off the bench for the season.

Again, Fabio Capello has failed to select form over reputation. Darren Bent or Bobby Zamora could start as Wayne Rooney's forward partner, especially given Capello's apparent disdain for Andy Carroll's lifestyle. Though Phil Jones has made the squad, Chris Smalling will not feature; neither will the demonstrably lethal Daniel Sturridge.

It is time to accept that only in the Three Lions is change not inevitable. Though Macedonia have played well - above expectation and even hope - their squad is the inverse of the England squad. Their unit is organized, motivated, have fewer skills and less cash. Don't give me the rubbish that England aren't motivated, even after the night which still plagues both Steve McLaren and Scott Carson's careers. Montenegro, who've played their football independently from Serbia only since 2006, has much more to gain than their established English counterparts.

This reason is why players like Sturridge, Welbeck and Smalling - Gaby Agbonlahor, for crying out loud - had to be featured in this match; each has something to gain from the exposure. One win (at home to England or away at Switzerland) will see Montenegro, granted nationhood from Serbia in 2006 and with the same population to Sheffield, secure a playoff spot for the 2012 European football Championships.

Of this, be very sure: the Montenegrin players care more about this match than the Three Lions. This is why Capello must be certain of selections; probably it is why he has erred to conservatism. Whether said nationalistic fervour is enough to counter players of a higher skill-set is why the matches are played.

England will face a team inspired by achievement while themselves facing public expectation bordering on verbal assault. The empowerment brought about by positive reinforcement is more stirring than fear of failure. The proof is in the pundit's bugbear Andy Carroll, who is yet to reproduce his Tyneside form for new club or country.

As well as reinforcing the generational change England so badly needs (Michael Owen and Joe Cole still talk about call-ups!), playing a front three of Rooney, Sturridge and Welbeck would scare almost any defence. That triad's pace alone would terrify most centre-backs, let alone the finishing skills all have shown this year.

Once again, England under Capello has missed a trick - and denied younger players the chance to prove themselves before a major tournament. Why should we expect any different?

Golden Generation or Fool's Gold?

Barring an almighty flop, England will qualify for Euro 2012. They'll do so in marginally convincing fashion, maybe even topping a group which while not robust, provided more challenging than first thought. Now, England manager Fabio Capello said he knew Tuesday's performance against Wales would be sub-par from watching the players warm up.

No-one's championing the current incarnation of the Three Lions as potential champions. Journalists and pundits alike admit their faith has been misplaced in the past and refuse to be fooled into again predicting glory for Blighty because, well, there's no reason to.

England's "golden generation" is marking out the last days of an ultimately disappointing series of International careers. This qualifying campaign is likely to be their last. The next major tournament, Euro 2012, will also probably be their last. They'll probably lose that tournament too, because Spain, Germany and the Netherlands are just that good. Winning won't be the only way the tournament is considered a success - even a fighting semi-final loss could be seen as progress.

They also won't win because of the simple fact England will not win anything until their Golden Generation has been removed almost entirely from the International picture. They have been enabled by Fabio Capello, who after insisting upon his appointment he would pick the best and most in-form players, has reneged and opted for the same old.

Given his reluctance to play England's best goalkeeper at the World Cup due to a self-inflicted lack of competitive experience, this means should the Italian actually want to win the European Football Championships, he should drop the ageing stalwarts of England's calamitous noughties. If he fears the consequences of playing untested players in major competitions, he should blood them now and embrace the possibilities ofered by English youth.

Perhaps he has started to do so already - through it's unclear whether through necessity or choice. Joe Hart is unquestionably the best 'keeper in England, if not one of the top five in world football. Gary Cahill looks almost certain to usurp Rio Ferdinand's position alongside the GG's leader, John Terry. When health allows, Andy Carroll and Jack Wilshere are the vanguard of the next generation. Chris Smalling's debut at right-back was impressive last week and he coped well with Gareth Bale on Tuesday.

The world and his dog already know what the Golden Generation can - or can't - do. If they were able to win a major championship, they would have done so already - or at least performed better. For nearly a decade England has struggled to combine their best two midfielders (Gerrard and Lampard) and boasted forwards unable to wreak the required havoc with inconsistent or inadequate supply. The Lions, while occasionally displaying flashes of individual skill, have been far less than the sum of their parts.

Although the season is young, the English players impressing most in the Premier League are of a different age to the current core of the team. It may be that generational change for its own sake isn't the catalyst for change, but form. Looking through the International lens, these players are unburdened by numerous England let-downs and deserve a chance to grow together as a unit before the Golden Generation exits in a series of faux, enforced and never-ending retirements brought on by a Quarter-final capitulation in Poland or the Ukraine.

This is hardly a revelatory argument. Capello's biggest contribution to English football could be to spot this fool's gold for what it is and create a new legacy for the country with a generation whose players could become (or already are) World Class, led by Hart, Smalling, Wilshere, Phil Jones and (gasp!) even Carroll. It is time to forcibly - and perhaps conspicuously and even painfully - retire those English player who have proven themselves ineffective on the International stage.

When winning is at stake, there is little room for sentiment.

van Marwijk sets a laudable precedent

With his decision not to select Nigel De Jong for the Netherlands two Euro 2012 qualifiers this week against Moldova & Sweden, coach Bert van Marwijk has made a call which should be roundly applauded all over the football world.

Nigel de Jong is not a hack. Nor is he a thug. Unfortunately however, he has approached the latter title with his performances over recent months. His high-kick to Xabi Alonso in the World Cup notwithstanding, de Jong has been the subject of scrutiny for his tackles throughout this Premier League season, with the heat intensifying since this weekend's leg-breaking challenge on new Newcastle Golden Boy Hatem Ben Arfa. Although the tackle was innocuous enough at the time, it left Ben Arfa with not one broken bone in his lower leg but two, and his crumpled form lies alongside those others de Jong has injured during his time in England; names like Alonso and Stuart Holden.

Over recent years we've seen a number of defenders receive death threats due to either the injudiciousness or unluckiness of their tackles – Martin Taylor and Ryan Shawcross spring readily to mind – but rarely does the punishment, which in England maxes out at a three game ban, fit the offense. “He's not that type of player” is often trotted out when one player is injured by the tackle of another. I haven't honestly seen enough of de Jong to say whether he is suffers from bad technique, bad judgement or bad luck, but with repeat offenses a player moves catgories from “not that guy” to “not him again”. The issue here however is not whether the Man City midfielder is evil, misguided or even unlucky. It's that his national team coach van Marwijk has chosen not to select him as punishment for his indiscretions.

When Holland's manager said in the media he couldn't select a player who has committed such acts, he must be balancing two trains of thought. First, he is certainly thinking about the results of his team. The publicity de Jong has received due to these unfortunate leg-breaking incidents is sure to be remembered by any referee he happens to cross. Should the big fella even blink incorrectly he risks immediate and harsh sanctions, potentially leaving the Netherlands down a man against big group rivals Sweden. Better to leave him out for this International Break, let the furore simmer down and select him next time.

Second though, BVM must be thinking of the big picture. The job of creating and guiding a team philosophy is solely that of the manager. It is his selection of both playing and back-room personnel that indicate the personality of a team and he's the one who both lays down and enforces standards. By van Marwijk refusing to select a player who has form for injurious challenges it sends a message both to Nigel de Jong and the rest of the football world that malarkey of this kind is not to be tolerated – should you tackle poorly, there will be ramifications. He should be congratulated for taking such a stand. It's unlikely his decision will be emulated by other managers as they may not have either the replacement talent at their disposal, nor the job security to be able to omit one of their most productive players. The man in charge making statements about the players he will or will not select is a very clear message, and loud enough that it should be heard all over the football world.

Andy Carroll: Next Toon messiah, Next England messiah?

Let's get the facts straight first up. Andy Carroll has made nine premier league starts for Newcastle. In those starts he's scored precisely four goals as a starter, all of them in his last two matches. The clamour for him to represent England in the Qualifiers for the European Championships during the Three Lions' two matches against Bulgaria & Switzerland has grown to fever pitch and as the Magpies fought to a draw with Wolves last weekend he was personally scouted by Franco Baldini, the England Assistant Manager.

There's no question that the kid has talent. He's been the pride and hope for the Toon army since he was barely 18, all while sporting a frame that makes Kevin Davies blush. He's a big lad. But to further flesh out the picture, he's aerobically very capable, runs to the right places on the pitch, and is a burly sort who doesn't mind contact and thus very good at creating enough time in the box for himself or others to shoot. The accuracy of those shots, however, is another matter but he's still only 21 and polish often comes later in a career.

So why or why not would Andy Carroll be a good target man for England? It's safe to say that the alternatives now Emile Heskey has retired – err. … Carlton Cole, Bobby Zamora, Davies and even Peter Crouch – don't fill opposition defences with dread. And, Crouch aside (but he's hurt at present anyway), none are in good form. You can be assured that Carroll's never played better and that he's been a handful for such experienced hands as Richard Dunne & Jody Craddock over the past two weeks. Combine this with his play against Man U's Vidic & Evans where he really should have scored and it paints a tantalising picture.

Should Fabio Capello and the England hierarchy feel that he could be the man to partner Wayne Rooney at the Euros in 2012, then it is now that he should be brought into the squad. Let him train with the England A-listers. Run him out in friendlies and “safe” second-legs until he gets a solid international footing. But this must be a consistent effort by management – given the noise surrounding his past fortnight, one of the only reasons he hasn't been picked already is the question remains if he's ready for prime-time. If he's not ready, he can be hastened into that readiness by allowing him to play roles here and there consistently within the national set-up. Tell him your plans for him. Communicate that and let him know that he has a place in forward plans should his form merit it.

To be honest, should he not play for England, I wouldn't really care. In fact, in these blog pages just a few days ago I wrote that it was perhaps premature to speak of him being the perfect foil for Rooney. He isn't the perfect foil for Rooney right now – he still needs polish for sure and he's quite simply not quite ripe – but if he has any chance of developing into that foil then that needs to be nurtured and encouraged over time rather than simply picking him if there's no one else available or because he fits in now but not later. If management doesn't expect a player to be playing at those Euros in two years time, it's nonsensical to expect that player to participate in these qualifiers. In two years, Andrew Carroll may be the best target-man in England. He also may very well not be – there is a lot of water to cross under a lot of bridges before he even approaches the status of a Didier Drogba. But if he has even the slightest chance to developing into that power forward, then pick him! What has England got to lose in the first games of a new qualifying campaign?