Rio Ferdinand: This is the End

Rio Ferdinand is old. At least, for a footballer, he’s getting up there – 35 years old, and turning 36 by the time the next Premier League season starts. He still has class and poise on the field, but the reason he’s almost certain to leave Manchester United at the end of this season is that his body just can’t do it any more.

Tuesday’s match against Champions League Champions (and Champions-elect) Bayern Munich exemplified the best and worst of Ferdinand in 2013-14.

With his hand somewhat forced by injuries to Jonny Evans, Rafael and Chris Smalling, manager David Moyes opted to revisit the past-prime Ferdinand/Vidic combination, with startling success: Ferdinand played as well as he has in months, while Vidic fired in the home team’s goal.

Ferdinand, confident and assured on the ball as is his style, was able to move the ball away from dangerous positions most of the time. However, he was liable – as, more damningly, was Marouane Fellaini – for United conceding the equaliser only minutes after taking the lead.

On Fox Sports Eric Wynalda spake about Ferdinand “half-challenging” Bayern assist-giver Schweinsteiger, he was only half right: Ferdinand simply couldn’t get a full challenge in because age has robbed him of his lateral mobility. This in turn gives the appearance of the former England centre-half constantly being wrong-footed – as he was multiple times by Edin Dzeko last week during the defeat to Manchester City.

While lateral mobility for a tall player is always more difficult than for shorter players – compare Peter Crouch’s ultimately linear style with that of Lionel Messi. The first aspect of muscle performance – strength, power and endurance – to decline is power, or the quick burst required to change directionsor react to an opponent’s course-correction.

There simply is no place in a rebuilding back four for a player who lacks the mobility to cover even and Edin Dzeko (or Mario Mandzukic), let alone a player as scamper-y as Luis Suarez, Lionel Messi or Edin Hazard. Ferdinand will hobble into the sunset (ie. MLS) and Manchester United fans should remember him not for his declining years but his dominant years where he was as smooth as could come.

Who will United's next centre-back be?

In a season of questions, there is one certainty: Manchester United’s annus horibilis will conclude with the departure of club stalwarts Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand. The captain has signed a deal to move to Internazionale; while Ferdinand has rarely appeared this term and when he has, the numbers have not been kind.

Their partnership has underpinned nearly a decade of success at Old Trafford.

You'd win bets in 2011 saying Lindegaard
would outlast his fellow photo-mates at United.

While Phil Jones, Chris Smalling and Jonny Evans have been three of David Moyes’ most reliable players, each has struggled with injuries this season and has a history of doing so. It is dubious if two of those three guys, appreciable as they are, will coalesce to form the next great United wall.

Each player has absolute strengths and weaknesses. Evans is a throwback to the lanky British centre-backs of the mid-eighties, a player born to defend who seems to be just about coming into his own at Old Trafford. Jones is a frenetic kinesis, perhaps a player without a position and still learning what it takes to be truly elite. Smalling is more suited to carrying the ball out from the back, and like Jones, can swing to right-back if required*.

Each is a good player, true enough – but will any of them be great? Jones has the most hope in this regard, but there are grave doubts as to whether these three have the requisite personality to drag a defense along in their wake. Unless this force of will rapidly becomes apparent, United will be in the market for a defender this summer.

Rumours have placed David Moyes, Ed Woodward and any number of United scouts at various arenas around Europe in attempts to find the next great United centre-back. The most featured names include Frenchman Eliaquim Mangala of Porto and German youngster Matthias Ginter, who is performing well at relegation-threatened Freiburg. Alarmingly, Stefan Savic has also been linked, while suggestions that Mats Hummels would abandon Borussia Dortmund for Manchester are pure fancy.

I’m taking the liberty here of adding a personal favourite to the investigatory list: Steven Caulker, of Cardiff City. Caulker is young, British, athletic and poised. While his club hasn’t had the greatest of campaigns (understatement alert), Caulker has only solidified his reputation as one of the better young central defenders in the Premiership; one who actually has the tools to improve his game and a team around him.

It may not be as simple as three-into-one. Each of these players has significant drawbacks that limits their immediate usefulness to the Moyesian Manchester.

The fee for Mangala is likely to approach scandalous amidst interest from practically everyone, while little is known as to his mental makeup. Ginter – while apparently honoured to be linked United – is still something of an unknown quantity – a mix of marginally-impressive stats and an impressive junior record. The German may be more accessible, but would he necessarily be a better fit for the United back line? He bears impressive size for a centre-back, but at 20 would need to have remarkable self-assuredness to help turn around a listing club whose headspace – rather than talent – is under question.

Caulker has experience in such conditions, as captain of a struggling outfit. However he has shown only spurts of an off-pitch ability to galvanise his comrades. Much of this can be attributed to the curious antics of Cardiff City’s owner, but if United are looking for an emotional catalyst, Caulker may not be the guy. He boasts Premiership experience, a nice eye for a pass and looks good in uniform (you can’t teach that) – but if a relatively-rudderless United is searching for leadership, it is questionable that Caulker can provide.

If the three most obvious options aren’t able to totally fill the criteria, then it may be United’s choice to go with the best prospect and hope a summer away from Carrington may be a tonic. It may also allow for the stink that has enveloped the United sheds to disappear, rather than be covered over by the Febreze of a Juan Mata signing, or lofty sponsorship deal.

On paper, a centre-back is paramount as David Moyes begins to shred the remnants of Sir Alex Ferguson’s once-great team. But none has really stood out as the outstanding candidate. This is Moyes’ challenge– not the choice of why or if to rebuild, but how.

*It must be said that this is accomplished with varying degrees of success.

Graphic: Manchester United's best defence

Click to expand

The chart above details how well each of Manchester United's key defenders perform as part of a three-man unit.  These units - goalkeeper plus two centre-backs - were tracked for minutes played together, goals conceded and goals scored over the season so far.

Should a player be farther right on the X-axis, United scores goals more regularly (per 90 minutes) while he is on the field; the Y-axis indicates how regularly they concede while that player is in a key defensive position.

While sample size for some players is small - Michael Carrick has a total of 360 minutes at centre-back this season, Scott Wootton 281, Phil Jones and Michael Keane nominally 180 each - their positions above represent not so much a change in defensive efficiency but in United's tactics.

United is blessed with five players with whom they can be comfortable at the heart of defence, but problems emerge when they employ their sixth choice.  That guy, Carrick, is a central midfielder and part of a three-man central defensive unit concedes a relatively high average of 1.5 goals per 90 minutes - no matter who his partners have been.  What makes this worse is United feel the need to cover more for him and drop drop midfielders back to cover, creating a double-edged sword in which they concede more and score fewer.

Also noticeable is that Nemanja Vidic's presence almost automatically means United are entering a game with a more defensive mindset.  The Serbian's figures correspond to a significant reduction in both goals allowed and scored per 90 minutes - highlighting a change in Ferguson's tactical outlook.

United's centre-back crisis: Free the youth

Sir Alex Ferguson has to deal with elimination from the Champions' League during the Group stages for only the second time in a decade. He will chase his thirteenth Premier League title and first Europa League wins without his best defender, after it was confirmed today that centre-half Nemanja Vidic will miss the rest of the season after rupturing his anterior cruciate ligament.

First up for the Manchester United manager is to decide on a new first-choice pair of central defenders. In channelling former mind-games patsy Rafael Benitez, he has experimented with rotating his players and the club has featured several partnerships already this season. After the Red Devils' 6-1 tonking at the hands of arch-rivals Manchester City - and injury to the elegant Chris Smalling - Ferguson elected to return to defensive basics by frequently deploying Vidic and Ferdinand.

Eighteen months ago, this coupling was probably the world's best. Wile still effective this season they have hardly been the domineering force of years past this season: Ferdinand has obviously slowed and now Vidic will be out for the foreseeable future. With Smalling and Phil Jones playing well this season, Ferdinand attracting transfer interest - most notably from the Chicago Fire and Spurs - and now Vidic, the future beckons for a callow Red Devil defence.

There are four available central defenders from Ferguson to choose a first-choice pair from.: Ferdinand, Jones, Smalling and Ferguson project/bugbear Jonny Evans. One this is for certain: barring indiscipline, the youthful trio will likely feature in some capacity in each of United's remaining games due to Ferdinand's china-plate legs and back. The possible combinations are as follows:

Ferdinand and Smalling:
Features the assured ball-player in Ferdinand and the man Ferguson recruited to succeed him. The manager seems to think either Vidic or Ferdinand is needed in the lineup to compete against the best offences in Europe and indeed, the Premiership, while Smalling seems to be more comfortable as a designated defender than Jones. This partnership has a lot to offer, and could be the one deployed for games against "big" opposition.

Ferdinand and Jones:
Jones has been used in many capacities already in his first season at Old Trafford: on the right, as a defensive midfielder, at right back, as a barnstorming box-to-box midfielder and finally as a roaming centre-back. Given his newfound (since the City loss) conservatism, it's likely Ferguson covets this versatility and won't want to tie him down to one particular role. Jones could be the only Englishman capable of playing as the libero role, but it's unlikely he'll receive the freedom to do so with United's current staid mindset.

Ferdinand and Evans:
Good grief, no. It's not that either are ad players - in my opinion, Evans is moderately underrated - but both lack legspeed and appear increasingly prone to defensive errors.

Evans and Smalling:
Perhaps more likely than one would first think. Evans has a certain combative nature perhaps lacking in the which the more reserved Smalling. He's also more positionally aware in the defensive game than Jones, however doesn't bring the distribution - or engine - of his younger compatriots. His propensity for dismissal is his greatest technical hole. If SAF prefers to pair a np-frills defender with a distributor rather than two more defensive backs, this may be his best bet.

Evans and Jones:
Given a certain stickiness of foot from Evans and Jones' natural offensive game, this partnership is perhaps one of the least likely possible combinations. This partnership would require Ferguson to open the floodgates, which, considering the disabled list currently features playmakers Cleverley, Anderson, Berbatov and Chicharito, is hardly likely.

Smalling and Jones:
Eight weeks ago this was the centre-back combination of the future. Now, even after Smalling's injury and Ferguson using Jones everywhere between Rooney and De Gea, this still reeks of potential. What is less certain, though, is if that potential will be realised as a centre-half combination. It would require empowerment from the gaffer akin to saying "Boys, you're my club's future, do what you do best". Ferguson has a history of doing this - c.f. You can't win anything with kids - but it's usually more calculated and occurs at the season's start.

While each combination has positives and negatives, it behoves Ferguson to employ his two prized young defenders at the positions they were bought to play. For United to progress - not this season, but next and beyond - Smalling and Jones must be given the chance to step up

Golden Generation or Fool's Gold?

Barring an almighty flop, England will qualify for Euro 2012. They'll do so in marginally convincing fashion, maybe even topping a group which while not robust, provided more challenging than first thought. Now, England manager Fabio Capello said he knew Tuesday's performance against Wales would be sub-par from watching the players warm up.

No-one's championing the current incarnation of the Three Lions as potential champions. Journalists and pundits alike admit their faith has been misplaced in the past and refuse to be fooled into again predicting glory for Blighty because, well, there's no reason to.

England's "golden generation" is marking out the last days of an ultimately disappointing series of International careers. This qualifying campaign is likely to be their last. The next major tournament, Euro 2012, will also probably be their last. They'll probably lose that tournament too, because Spain, Germany and the Netherlands are just that good. Winning won't be the only way the tournament is considered a success - even a fighting semi-final loss could be seen as progress.

They also won't win because of the simple fact England will not win anything until their Golden Generation has been removed almost entirely from the International picture. They have been enabled by Fabio Capello, who after insisting upon his appointment he would pick the best and most in-form players, has reneged and opted for the same old.

Given his reluctance to play England's best goalkeeper at the World Cup due to a self-inflicted lack of competitive experience, this means should the Italian actually want to win the European Football Championships, he should drop the ageing stalwarts of England's calamitous noughties. If he fears the consequences of playing untested players in major competitions, he should blood them now and embrace the possibilities ofered by English youth.

Perhaps he has started to do so already - through it's unclear whether through necessity or choice. Joe Hart is unquestionably the best 'keeper in England, if not one of the top five in world football. Gary Cahill looks almost certain to usurp Rio Ferdinand's position alongside the GG's leader, John Terry. When health allows, Andy Carroll and Jack Wilshere are the vanguard of the next generation. Chris Smalling's debut at right-back was impressive last week and he coped well with Gareth Bale on Tuesday.

The world and his dog already know what the Golden Generation can - or can't - do. If they were able to win a major championship, they would have done so already - or at least performed better. For nearly a decade England has struggled to combine their best two midfielders (Gerrard and Lampard) and boasted forwards unable to wreak the required havoc with inconsistent or inadequate supply. The Lions, while occasionally displaying flashes of individual skill, have been far less than the sum of their parts.

Although the season is young, the English players impressing most in the Premier League are of a different age to the current core of the team. It may be that generational change for its own sake isn't the catalyst for change, but form. Looking through the International lens, these players are unburdened by numerous England let-downs and deserve a chance to grow together as a unit before the Golden Generation exits in a series of faux, enforced and never-ending retirements brought on by a Quarter-final capitulation in Poland or the Ukraine.

This is hardly a revelatory argument. Capello's biggest contribution to English football could be to spot this fool's gold for what it is and create a new legacy for the country with a generation whose players could become (or already are) World Class, led by Hart, Smalling, Wilshere, Phil Jones and (gasp!) even Carroll. It is time to forcibly - and perhaps conspicuously and even painfully - retire those English player who have proven themselves ineffective on the International stage.

When winning is at stake, there is little room for sentiment.

England's - and Capello's - Captaincy Dilemma

As much as John Terry is unlikeable, he is a good on-field leader. This is why Fabio Capello performed a back-flip this week by announcing his reinstatement as England captain. It seems Terry, who was stripped of his title last year amidst a swarm of accusations about his private life, is the least of eleven evils. In a news conference on Tuesday, Terry admitted to "not being everyone's cup of tea". In a poll today on The Guardian's website, apparently he's only 15.9%'s beverage of choice.

There's almost no question the Chelsea skipper has all the best capabilities for the job - experience leading a team to trophies, is the biggest alpha-dog available to England, is amongst the best central defenders in the country and he'd look great with a bandaged head, Terry Butcher-style. Could you picture Rio Ferdinand or Matthew Upson standing in front of Joe Hart, screaming "You Shall Not Pass!" like Gandalf ? No, I couldn't either. In fact, on racking my brains for at least a minute, the only other Englishman I can think of who fits both the Butcher and Gandalf criteria is West Ham's Scott Parker.

There's a good argument that no defender or midfielder regularly available to England inspires like Terry. The only forward who does so is Wayne Rooney, who - though improving - is enduring probably his worst season ever and boasts off-field decisions which make those of the newly reinstated captain seem positively Yoda-like. England, it seems, are bereft of leaders worthy of the armband and this has forced a Capello flip-flop, which also sounds like a rather nice brand of ice-cream. All the positive steps the Italian was supposed to bring have now sunk finally, inexorably under a pile of Nutella, French Underwear Models and Boredom. The famous Capello discipline has, sadly, failed.

Capello was brought in to administer England for a number of reasons. Firstly, he has won everywhere he's been. This leads straight onto the second reason - his success and manner made him the best qualified choice to manage a nation suffering through a trophy drought now forty-five years long. That's thirty-nine years longer than Arsenal's current drought, ten years longer than City's dry spell and was three years shorter than Birmingham City's before the League Cup. Finally, it was thought that Capello's rigid sense of discipline would allow for better performances after the pally reign of Schteve McClaren turned into schemozzle.

The Three Lions responded magnificently early in the Italian's reign but this petered out with an awful World Cup during which there were rumours of a rebellion led by Terry. It's beginning to seem though nothing totally defeated him before, Capello has finally met his match with this group. It's fitting commentary that a man renowned for strong principles has perhaps been challenged most strongly - and terminally - by this group of players whose ideals often remain ... fluid.

Terry was stripped of the captaincy for personal rather than professional reasons. At the time, it was thought unlikely he would regain the position - the colossus centre-back gave way to his ball-playing counterpart Rio Ferdinand, who has rarely been healthy since. Rumours persist that he may never be fully healthy again. The gaffer manager (doesn't seem like the type to enjoy the title "gaffer", does he?) was then forced to reconsider his options and, probable personality issues and all, John Terry is the outstanding candidate.

Every other Three Lions regular - Ferdinand, A. Cole, Lampard, Gerrard, Hart, Rooney, Barry, Milner - either doesn't have the force of personality to be the dressing room alpha dog or the talent to justify the appointment. Those who do have the personality and skills either boast injury reports the length of Terry Butcher's bandage or a personal life making Terry's seem meek in comparison. As much as it's probable Capello would have liked to move forward, the only younger prospects worthy of regular England consideration are Jack Wilshere and Andy Carroll. The manager's hands were tied on this one - it's not a back-flip solely because he changed his mind, simply that there are no more options left to him.