Who will United's next centre-back be?

In a season of questions, there is one certainty: Manchester United’s annus horibilis will conclude with the departure of club stalwarts Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand. The captain has signed a deal to move to Internazionale; while Ferdinand has rarely appeared this term and when he has, the numbers have not been kind.

Their partnership has underpinned nearly a decade of success at Old Trafford.

You'd win bets in 2011 saying Lindegaard
would outlast his fellow photo-mates at United.

While Phil Jones, Chris Smalling and Jonny Evans have been three of David Moyes’ most reliable players, each has struggled with injuries this season and has a history of doing so. It is dubious if two of those three guys, appreciable as they are, will coalesce to form the next great United wall.

Each player has absolute strengths and weaknesses. Evans is a throwback to the lanky British centre-backs of the mid-eighties, a player born to defend who seems to be just about coming into his own at Old Trafford. Jones is a frenetic kinesis, perhaps a player without a position and still learning what it takes to be truly elite. Smalling is more suited to carrying the ball out from the back, and like Jones, can swing to right-back if required*.

Each is a good player, true enough – but will any of them be great? Jones has the most hope in this regard, but there are grave doubts as to whether these three have the requisite personality to drag a defense along in their wake. Unless this force of will rapidly becomes apparent, United will be in the market for a defender this summer.

Rumours have placed David Moyes, Ed Woodward and any number of United scouts at various arenas around Europe in attempts to find the next great United centre-back. The most featured names include Frenchman Eliaquim Mangala of Porto and German youngster Matthias Ginter, who is performing well at relegation-threatened Freiburg. Alarmingly, Stefan Savic has also been linked, while suggestions that Mats Hummels would abandon Borussia Dortmund for Manchester are pure fancy.

I’m taking the liberty here of adding a personal favourite to the investigatory list: Steven Caulker, of Cardiff City. Caulker is young, British, athletic and poised. While his club hasn’t had the greatest of campaigns (understatement alert), Caulker has only solidified his reputation as one of the better young central defenders in the Premiership; one who actually has the tools to improve his game and a team around him.

It may not be as simple as three-into-one. Each of these players has significant drawbacks that limits their immediate usefulness to the Moyesian Manchester.

The fee for Mangala is likely to approach scandalous amidst interest from practically everyone, while little is known as to his mental makeup. Ginter – while apparently honoured to be linked United – is still something of an unknown quantity – a mix of marginally-impressive stats and an impressive junior record. The German may be more accessible, but would he necessarily be a better fit for the United back line? He bears impressive size for a centre-back, but at 20 would need to have remarkable self-assuredness to help turn around a listing club whose headspace – rather than talent – is under question.

Caulker has experience in such conditions, as captain of a struggling outfit. However he has shown only spurts of an off-pitch ability to galvanise his comrades. Much of this can be attributed to the curious antics of Cardiff City’s owner, but if United are looking for an emotional catalyst, Caulker may not be the guy. He boasts Premiership experience, a nice eye for a pass and looks good in uniform (you can’t teach that) – but if a relatively-rudderless United is searching for leadership, it is questionable that Caulker can provide.

If the three most obvious options aren’t able to totally fill the criteria, then it may be United’s choice to go with the best prospect and hope a summer away from Carrington may be a tonic. It may also allow for the stink that has enveloped the United sheds to disappear, rather than be covered over by the Febreze of a Juan Mata signing, or lofty sponsorship deal.

On paper, a centre-back is paramount as David Moyes begins to shred the remnants of Sir Alex Ferguson’s once-great team. But none has really stood out as the outstanding candidate. This is Moyes’ challenge– not the choice of why or if to rebuild, but how.

*It must be said that this is accomplished with varying degrees of success.

Graphic: Manchester United's best defence

Click to expand

The chart above details how well each of Manchester United's key defenders perform as part of a three-man unit.  These units - goalkeeper plus two centre-backs - were tracked for minutes played together, goals conceded and goals scored over the season so far.

Should a player be farther right on the X-axis, United scores goals more regularly (per 90 minutes) while he is on the field; the Y-axis indicates how regularly they concede while that player is in a key defensive position.

While sample size for some players is small - Michael Carrick has a total of 360 minutes at centre-back this season, Scott Wootton 281, Phil Jones and Michael Keane nominally 180 each - their positions above represent not so much a change in defensive efficiency but in United's tactics.

United is blessed with five players with whom they can be comfortable at the heart of defence, but problems emerge when they employ their sixth choice.  That guy, Carrick, is a central midfielder and part of a three-man central defensive unit concedes a relatively high average of 1.5 goals per 90 minutes - no matter who his partners have been.  What makes this worse is United feel the need to cover more for him and drop drop midfielders back to cover, creating a double-edged sword in which they concede more and score fewer.

Also noticeable is that Nemanja Vidic's presence almost automatically means United are entering a game with a more defensive mindset.  The Serbian's figures correspond to a significant reduction in both goals allowed and scored per 90 minutes - highlighting a change in Ferguson's tactical outlook.

United's centre-back crisis: Free the youth

Sir Alex Ferguson has to deal with elimination from the Champions' League during the Group stages for only the second time in a decade. He will chase his thirteenth Premier League title and first Europa League wins without his best defender, after it was confirmed today that centre-half Nemanja Vidic will miss the rest of the season after rupturing his anterior cruciate ligament.

First up for the Manchester United manager is to decide on a new first-choice pair of central defenders. In channelling former mind-games patsy Rafael Benitez, he has experimented with rotating his players and the club has featured several partnerships already this season. After the Red Devils' 6-1 tonking at the hands of arch-rivals Manchester City - and injury to the elegant Chris Smalling - Ferguson elected to return to defensive basics by frequently deploying Vidic and Ferdinand.

Eighteen months ago, this coupling was probably the world's best. Wile still effective this season they have hardly been the domineering force of years past this season: Ferdinand has obviously slowed and now Vidic will be out for the foreseeable future. With Smalling and Phil Jones playing well this season, Ferdinand attracting transfer interest - most notably from the Chicago Fire and Spurs - and now Vidic, the future beckons for a callow Red Devil defence.

There are four available central defenders from Ferguson to choose a first-choice pair from.: Ferdinand, Jones, Smalling and Ferguson project/bugbear Jonny Evans. One this is for certain: barring indiscipline, the youthful trio will likely feature in some capacity in each of United's remaining games due to Ferdinand's china-plate legs and back. The possible combinations are as follows:

Ferdinand and Smalling:
Features the assured ball-player in Ferdinand and the man Ferguson recruited to succeed him. The manager seems to think either Vidic or Ferdinand is needed in the lineup to compete against the best offences in Europe and indeed, the Premiership, while Smalling seems to be more comfortable as a designated defender than Jones. This partnership has a lot to offer, and could be the one deployed for games against "big" opposition.

Ferdinand and Jones:
Jones has been used in many capacities already in his first season at Old Trafford: on the right, as a defensive midfielder, at right back, as a barnstorming box-to-box midfielder and finally as a roaming centre-back. Given his newfound (since the City loss) conservatism, it's likely Ferguson covets this versatility and won't want to tie him down to one particular role. Jones could be the only Englishman capable of playing as the libero role, but it's unlikely he'll receive the freedom to do so with United's current staid mindset.

Ferdinand and Evans:
Good grief, no. It's not that either are ad players - in my opinion, Evans is moderately underrated - but both lack legspeed and appear increasingly prone to defensive errors.

Evans and Smalling:
Perhaps more likely than one would first think. Evans has a certain combative nature perhaps lacking in the which the more reserved Smalling. He's also more positionally aware in the defensive game than Jones, however doesn't bring the distribution - or engine - of his younger compatriots. His propensity for dismissal is his greatest technical hole. If SAF prefers to pair a np-frills defender with a distributor rather than two more defensive backs, this may be his best bet.

Evans and Jones:
Given a certain stickiness of foot from Evans and Jones' natural offensive game, this partnership is perhaps one of the least likely possible combinations. This partnership would require Ferguson to open the floodgates, which, considering the disabled list currently features playmakers Cleverley, Anderson, Berbatov and Chicharito, is hardly likely.

Smalling and Jones:
Eight weeks ago this was the centre-back combination of the future. Now, even after Smalling's injury and Ferguson using Jones everywhere between Rooney and De Gea, this still reeks of potential. What is less certain, though, is if that potential will be realised as a centre-half combination. It would require empowerment from the gaffer akin to saying "Boys, you're my club's future, do what you do best". Ferguson has a history of doing this - c.f. You can't win anything with kids - but it's usually more calculated and occurs at the season's start.

While each combination has positives and negatives, it behoves Ferguson to employ his two prized young defenders at the positions they were bought to play. For United to progress - not this season, but next and beyond - Smalling and Jones must be given the chance to step up

Cheer up, Fernando Torres.

Fernando Torres will rediscover his form again. Some day. He's too good a player not to, really. But those happy times seem a long way away after yet another match in which he's failed to find the net. It's now eight straight goalless matches he's played for the Blues; more galling is that he's only registered one shot on target during his six EPL matches for Chelsea, one less than fellow new arrival David Luiz - a centre-back.

Even though he's (probably) earned a nice raise and has escaped the flotsam and jetsam that marked Roy Hodgson's Liverpool reign, Fernando Torres doesn't seem happy; in fact he seems about two more goalless games away from dressing all in black and breaking out the goth makeup.

You've got got dream move, Fernando, why so sad? Chelsea (more particularly owner Roman Abramovich) gambled that his Liverpool funk was a result of injury, perhaps burnout and displeasure at the club's circumstances only to have so far been proven wrong. Torres will rediscover his touch again but unfortunately, sometimes form slumps are difficult to break. Exhibit A: Wayne Rooney, only just regaining some of his best touch after a horrible twelve months.

We posited in November that Torres needed to get the swagger back into his game. Following his two sublime goals for the Reds against Chelsea, he was apparently back to his best but has failed to kick on and his body language remains poor. He's in a rough trot and knows it. From the outside, it seems Torres is being very hard on himself - opting often for negative, rather than positive reinforcement. When this happens, the joy of simply playing the game can be easily lost. Good morale promotes good performances - the reverse is also true.

Sometimes the only way to get back your groove is to convince yourself that it's already done - to walk out onto the pitch and play the part of the confident scorer. Such an attitude requires mental strength to maintain under adversity, but it is possible to assure yourself by believing good things will happen if you're in the right place at the right time. It's no substitute for real confidence, but a good breeding ground which can allow self-belief to grow. The first step in having others believe you're a threat is to believe the same thing of yourself. You can tell a lot about a player's self-confidence by the way they hold themselves.

Players who come to terms with their form (and situation) aren't usually players who swear at cameramen or moan about negative refereeing decisions. In a media climate in which players like Rooney, Terry and Torres reside, much of their publicity is bi-polar: news reports see them deified or crucified with almost no middle ground. With the spotlight on him, perhaps it's time for Fernando Torres to start believing what he should know is true - that he's possibly the best centre-forward in the world and, eventually, the goals will come - rather than what others report as true.

As he lines up for Chelsea against arch-enemies Manchester United on Wednesday, he'll look across the field to see direct opponents Nemanja Vidic and Chris Smalling. In the past, Vidic has been putty in his hands. Smalling remains three years removed from the Isthmian Premier League. For Chelsea and Fernando Torres, there will never be a better time to start believing.

Chelsea to scare United fans again

To go all nerd-alert on you, the Jedi code states that fear breeds hate. In football circles that's not quite right: it's one or more of success, arrogance or tactics which breed disdain. To expand a little, Manchester United is a love-or-hate proposition due to their combination of success and arrogance; Sam Allardyce's propensity for ugly football means he'sproductive but unpopular almost anywhere he goes and Kevin Muscat earned the title of "football's most hated" for mixing healthy doses of all three.

As a United fan, I've never really feared Liverpool. Fernando Torres definitely scared me - I'm sure Nemanja Vidic still can't sleep for the Anfield horrors the Spaniard regularly inflicted on him - and am glad he's gone. I don't despise Liverpool's past successes because during my football-following lifetime, any title or cup wins haven't come at United's expense. Any ill-feeling I bear towards the Scouse nation is due to my perception of their fans arrogance; but as a Red Devil supporter I'm also hardly above blame in this department. Although I admit to the rivalry between Arsenal and United and envy the North Londoners' ability to attract top youth prospects, I don't fear them either - how could you be frightened of a team whose enforcer is probably the mad Teutonic goalkeeper they just re-employed?

However, I fear Chelsea. Since I started the topsy-turvy life of a serious football follower early this century, almost everything about them has irritated me beyond all reason. This ire isn't the result of one factor but of many: billions of readily available roubles; nouveau riche fan attitudes; the existence of Dennis Wise and John Terry; other players whose attitude/talent combination elicits just the right amount of bile like Drogba, Anelka and Torres; and tactically astute managers (probably except Avram Grant). Finally - and most importantly - Chelsea are a team accustomed to beating Man U. Only their three League titles and four FA Cups since the millennium can compare with United's haul. For relatively recent fans of the league, the big rivalry isn't Red vs. Red Devil - it's now Blue vs. Red Devil.

And this is what makes the Champions' League Quarter-Finals so enticing and nerve-wracking. These two teams will play in a replay of the 2008 UCL final, an event made more delicious for victorious Red Devil fans when the deciding penalty was missed by John Terry. To make one of the best days ever even better, he then cried on the pitch. Though '99 was special, this was every United fan's decade-long dream. Since that day, Chelsea have proved stronger in most encounters as if jointly motivated and repelled by the failure in Moscow. Both teams don't sport vintage line-ups this year, but battle will commence again.

And it will be a frighteningly watchable spectacle.