Showing posts with label English Premier League. Show all posts
Showing posts with label English Premier League. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Not quite an infographic, but...



This is a spreadsheet visualisation that I just enjoy looking at. It tracks the performance of every English Football League club during the Premier League era. It gives a real feel for the cyclical nature of English football and allows for easy tracking of precipitous ascents (c.f. Hull City, circa 2004-08), descents (Luton Town, 2007-09) and deaths (marked with an X).

Numbers in bold face indicate the highest position a club has reached - if there are several, the latest is highlighted. Those figures in italics represent a club's league nadir.

For more easy-to-follow data like this, visit the Room of Informational Illusions.

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

For Moyes and United, a successful season already unachievable

David Moyes is overseeing probably the worst Man Utd season since 1988-89. In every season since then – excepting 2001-02 and 2004-5 – the Red Devils have contributed to the trophy room; in both those intermediate seasons without sparkles, the club finished third in the table.

With a 2-1 home loss to an understrength Swansea culminating in elimination from the FA Cup, the rancor surrounding David Moyes’ viability the club’s manager increased. After surrendering another injury-time goal today to lose at Sunderland today in the first leg of their League Cup semi-final, it might be best hold place the official Manchester United Twitter feed under 24-hour guard.

With the team in seventh position in the league, a Cup victory now a precarious proposition, the team almost completely devoid of central midfielders and unpromising Champions League hopes, there are influential voices suggesting Moyes and United must win the League Cup to ensure 2013-14 is a campaign the club doesn’t want to scrub from the annals.

The fact is that for United, this is already a disappointing season and a League Cup victory would do nothing to change that. As enjoyable as it might be, wins over Sunderland and Man City wouldn’t paper over the holes Moyes has to fill. Unless there is a remarkable sprightly second-half turnaround any reasonable goals for the season will remain unfulfilled – therefore, the season has been a disappointment.

Now equipped with half a season of hindsight, achievable aims for United would have been the provision of hope for the future – with a bonus coming in the form of a title challenge or Cup win – due either to player development, squad refreshment or a masterful new tactical system that saw the club entering the post-Ferguson/Gill era with hope.

Red Devil fans have seen none of this, and no amount of success – and for clubs like United, League Cup victories only marginally count – can hide how deficient their squad is.

Despite its respected position, the League Cup has no place in defining a successful season for a club the size of United. The old axiom that success begets success is somewhat true in football. Trophies – and sometimes, the money they bring – can attract players to your club that otherwise might sign elsewhere. But it’s unlikely Arturo Vidal (or other similarly-talented players) would be enticed to Manchester on the strength of League Cup silverware – and thus United, winning this competition is merely a bonus and completely unintegral to defining this season’s fortunes.

Were United to win the League Cup playing outstanding football, or with a lineup featuring Nick Powell, Wilfried Zaha, Alex Buttner and a revitalized Anderson – that would be a fine platform on which to build the next great United XI. Such a scenario is so unlikely as to be practically impossible.

The Champions League? Player-to-player comparison of United with Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern, City and even Atletico and PSG is an unfavourable exercise. Any hopes in this competition now rest with a Great Escape similar to that of Chelsea’s of 2012, in which an inferior squad managed to hole up against superior opposition in three straight rounds. Possible, sure – but highly unlikely.

This coming offseason looms as another of great change at Carrington. It needs to be, as the club continues to tread timidly, turning often and conspicuously to the image of Grandpa, retired and safe but still a presence in the Director’s box.

Friday, October 18, 2013

How much impact do individual players have on their team's performances?

Click to enlarge
The chart above details something of the relative contribution made by individual English Premiership players to their team performances: it maps the amount of goals scored and conceded per ninety minutes with each player on the field this season.  In effect, this chart mimics the plus/minus stat used in hockey*, adjusted for time spent on the field.

The sample size is relatively small – teams from five teams were included, one from each of five categories: last year’s champions, Manchester United, a top-four contender in Tottenham Hotspur, two suspiciously mid-table teams in Aston Villa and Southampton and promoted Cardiff City. 

A player’s contribution can be surmised from how far he is from a large cluster of teammates – these represent the players a manager thinks of as the core of his team.  Examples are easily found in the defensive units of Spurs, Villa, Southampton and Cardiff. 

The spread also represents the amount of squad rotation favoured by certain managers – the northwest regions of the graphic indicate Manchester United have a core that manager David Moyes is currently coming to grips with simply by virtue of the player spread.  Southampton, however, are far more congested.

We can see that the player who represents the greatest forward boon to his side is Wayne Rooney, who after a slow start, has made a startling return to form at Old Trafford.  While it’s no surprise given his team’s relative miserliness, Nathaniel Clyne of Southampton seems to have proven the difference between the Saints scoring or not.


(This ongoing project began as an attempt to keep plus minus records for individual Premier League players; you can find the results here: so far, the player with the worst plus/minus ratio is Kim Bo Kyung of Cardiff City followed by Ashley Young of Manchester United; the player from the five teams selected with the best plus/minus stat is again Nathaniel Clyne).

Friday, June 21, 2013

European Goalkeeper Stats 2010-11

The following is a list of (barely) advanced Goalkeeper stats for the four major European leagues for season 2010-11.

Thursday, June 20, 2013

European Goalkeeper Stats 2012-13

The following post is essentially a list of numbers, from which you can make what you will. It details each goalkeeper's individual performance over the course of the season - and, by extension, the performance of each club's defence over the season past.

Click past the byline to see the (rather lengthy) statistics.

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Farewell Sir Alex Ferguson

It was unexpected, quick and most suitable.

Sir Alex Ferguson didn’t need a cavalcade of fanfare as he announced his retirement today after twenty-seven years as manager of Manchester United, but a simple celebration befitting an uncomplicated man.  Rather than engendering endless speculation by pre-empting his retirement or embarking upon a final series of signature mind games, Sir Alex has chosen a dignified departure. 

Though it has emerged that Everton’s David Moyes will almost certainly take over as the Red Devils’ boss – a move marked clearly with Sir Alex’s fingerprints – today isn’t a day to fete the new, but to remember the older – a man who was quite simply the best.  Despite battles lost, the war was an overwhelming triumph choreographed by a director gifted so supremely with vision, flexibility of thought and strength of character.

These adjectives will be three of the thousands used to describe him today, such is his renown and ability.  He is the defining character in the history of the English Premier League, a league which owes its popularity in large part to the inexorable United sides that accumulated thirteen titles from twenty-one.

It’s odd to think that perhaps his greatest strength was that flexibility.  Over his tenure, Sir Alex earned a reputation for uncompromising forthrightness, a character trait that hardly suggests a man given to adaptability.  However, his pile-driving outward manner masked a communicator not only able to relate effectively to players born across six decades, but to spur – or cajole – whatever greatness lay within.  The sport bears little resemblance to the one he himself played north of the Wall; the circus surrounding it even less, but he has been ever-present – a man defying time and tempering.

His longevity pays ultimate tribute to a pragmatic tactical flexibility.  Over the course of his reign, Sir Alex has not only replenished United’s stocks but also regenerated from within.  The most recent revival saw the dour Champions of 2011 moulded into a collection of title-winning freewheelers.  Neither was “vintage”, but both were utterly effective.

Sir Alex Ferguson’s legacy will include two Champions League wins, thirteen Premiership titles (and sixteen overall), a European Cup Winners’ Cup and five FA Cups.  It is inconceivable in the disposable culture of today’s football that these accomplishments could be surpassed by one man and a team crafted, refined and re-refined. 

However, it is unfair that he will be measured by quantifiable achievements.  The past twenty-seven years have been his greatest bequest: the Fledglings, a magical evening at the Nou Camp and an inherent confidence that triumph lay only ninety minutes away. 

None are more impressive than the figures who dominate our formative years; they linger in memory having immortalized deeds never to be surpassed. Sir Alex Ferguson is the only manager that most living Manchester United – and football – fans have ever known.  For anyone aged under thirty-five, he will forever prowl the sidelines at Old Trafford as his bronzed likeness glares down from a pedestal fronting Old Trafford’s entry gates.  Flickering shadows will replace him, some of whom will succeed.  But none will match the deeds, or be remembered as fondly, as Sir Alex Ferguson.

Monday, April 29, 2013

An overblown Eden Hazard love-in

The start of Eden Hazard’s career with Chelsea might best be described as bimodal.

After a £32-million summer transfer from the 2011 French Champions Lille, Hazard began the season lauded as perhaps the best Belgian in a league full of ‘em.  But his form slumped around the time his club entered the mid-season depression that cost Champions League winning manager Roberto Di Matteo his position and recovered only in the early months of this year.

Yet when one takes a look at the nominees for the PFA Player of the Year award and now that same organisation’s Team of the Year sees him line up behind Robin van Persie.  He has been touted for a superlative season, but hasn’t produced at the same level we expected after his glistening start.

Both seem a bit rich.  Hazard is unquestionably an incredibly talented player, but has performed rather inconsistently in the English Premiership – he is capable of outstanding performances but has remained somewhat anonymous in other matches, perhaps a function of Chelsea’s attempt to shoehorn three pesky creative types into one outfit.  While statistics only tell half the story, Mata has indeed had the superior season.

Was his selection in the Team of the Year a product of a lack of alternative options?  Given his peers voted him one of the best six players in the country, that’s a long bow to draw – it’s clear that the Premier League rank and file deem him a player to be respected.  Nevertheless, he made the celebrated team at the expense of players of whom it could be easily argued had better seasons like Arsenal’s Santi Cazorla or Swansea City superbargain Michu. 

The love-in surrounding Hazard’s debut English season has begun and history will say that it was a fine one, replete with awards.  But that doesn’t do him justice – he could be one of the five greatest players in the world and that hasn’t been reflected in the totality of his performances this year.  This year, he has been very-good-but-not-great, perhaps only displaying eighty percent of his formidable skill.  But does a player who only engages (even) a fraction of his ability truly deserve a position in such an esteemed team?

Friday, March 29, 2013

Graphic: Manchester United's best defence

Click to expand
The chart above details how well each of Manchester United's key defenders perform as part of a three-man unit.  These units - goalkeeper plus two centre-backs - were tracked for minutes played together, goals conceded and goals scored over the season so far.

Should a player be farther right on the X-axis, United scores goals more regularly (per 90 minutes) while he is on the field; the Y-axis indicates how regularly they concede while that player is in a key defensive position.

While sample size for some players is small - Michael Carrick has a total of 360 minutes at centre-back this season, Scott Wootton 281, Phil Jones and Michael Keane nominally 180 each - their positions above represent not so much a change in defensive efficiency but in United's tactics.

United is blessed with five players with whom they can be comfortable at the heart of defence, but problems emerge when they employ their sixth choice.  That guy, Carrick, is a central midfielder and part of a three-man central defensive unit concedes a relatively high average of 1.5 goals per 90 minutes - no matter who his partners have been.  What makes this worse is United feel the need to cover more for him and drop drop midfielders back to cover, creating a double-edged sword in which they concede more and score fewer.

Also noticeable is that Nemanja Vidic's presence almost automatically means United are entering a game with a more defensive mindset.  The Serbian's figures correspond to a significant reduction in both goals allowed and scored per 90 minutes - highlighting a change in Ferguson's tactical outlook.

Friday, March 22, 2013

Graphic: EPL best buys of 2012-13

Click to enlarge
The above chart hints at just how much English Premier League clubs are prepared to pay for good attackers.  Any forward (ie. wingers and strikers) who arrived at an English club during the Summer transfer window of 2012 has been included and the cost of his acquisition plotted against the number of goals for which he has been directly responsible.

When transfer fees were not disclosed, best estimates were taken from reputable online sources such as transfermarkt.co.uk and several online newspapers (chiefly the Guardian, Mirror and Independent).

Unsurprisingly for a Golden Boot contender - and discounting QPR's Andy Johnson, who has managed only two games this term - Robin van Persie leads last season's acquisitions, averaging nearly a goal created/scored per game.  His price tag however means that he doesn't provide as much bang-for-buck as the likes of Villa's Christian Benteke, Wigan's Arouna Kone or Michu.  Were it not for any of this trio (or indeed Fulham's depreciated Dimitar Berbatov), all three clubs might be struggling at the foot of the table.

This year's flop crop includes Manchester City new boy Scott Sinclair, injured Liverpudlian Fabio Borini and, most surprisingly, the fleet of foot and extremely impressive Oscar.  Obviously this analysis takes into account only part of one season and measures only discrete measurable events - part of Benteke's success hasn't so much been his scoring but the fact his leadup play has created space that Andreas Weimann and Gaby Agbonlahor have used to get open and score.

Interpreting value from afar is always a risky business: from the stats above, it would seem that Oscar has yet to repay Chelsea's investment.  However, in concert with Juan Mata and Eden Hazard, the Brazilian maestro seems likely to torture Premiership defenders for years.  Blues' fans and administrators alike should have no doubts about their potential ROI.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Graphic: Four-year EPL efficiency

This efficiency study tracks how effective each English Premier League team has been since 2009-10.  It does so by mapping a team's offensive efficiency (measured in shots per goal scored) against their defensive resilience (measured in shots faced per goal conceded).  Data is updated to 22nd February 2012 and so includes Liverpool's recent 5-0 win over Swansea City.

The axes cross at "league average" positions, meaning the graph is divided into relatively even quadrants.

As one would expect, twinn'd Manchester clubs appear to have the greatest cumulative combination of offense and defence, Chelsea's numbers lessened by a misfiring striker and ill-fated flirtations with seductive foreign managers (their 2010 season was probably the most efficient EPL club season in recent history).

Click on the graphic to enlarge.

(c) Balanced Sports

As always, thanks to Ben Mayhew at Experimental 3-6-1 for the idea, sourced over a year ago.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Graphic: European football conversion rates

The following chart displays the efficiency of European football forwards my mapping their conversion rate (goals per shot) against the number of shots per game.

The higher on the Y-axis the forward, the more efficient the player in front of goal; the farther to the right on the X-axis, the more shots they generate.  Only players with four goals or more this season were considered (ie. forwards with a goals/game ratio higher than .364).  Players are colour-coded according to the league in which they play: red for La Liga, orange for the English Premier League, green for the Bundesliga and azure for Serie A.

Finally, a statistical category in which Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo don't lead the pack!

Click to enlarge.

Monday, August 20, 2012

Graphic: The Football League heat map

This is a concept I've been playing around with for the past week.  It's basically a year-by-year standings of the English Football League tree made to look pretty by colour-coding specific finishes.  That is, red represents a league finish in the top 15 of the 92 Football League teams, a year highlighted in orange denotes a club finishing in position 16-30 and so on.

Clubs are arranged according to their average league position over the 20 years - that is, Manchester United are ranked highest because since 1992-93 their average league position (ALP) is 1.6.  Clubs in boldface type are those who competed in the Football League/Premier League in 2011-12.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Expanded EPL survival rates now available

On Monday we published the survival rates of every team promoted to the English Premier League from the League Championship since the start of the year.

Because I like to be thorough and because we're about to enter the Premiership's 21st season, I expanded the diagram (and hopefully made it somewhat clearer) to take in every promoted team since the inception of the league in 1992-93.

As usual, years spent continuously in the top division are indicated in azure, while any season spent in the Premier League after promotion-relegation-promotion are represented by green.  Red denotes any season spent outside the Premiership, because we all know football begins and ends there (/sarcasm).

Copyright Balanced Sports
As you can see, Second Season Syndrome is perhaps an overstated phenomenon, with only six instances of a club being relegated after their second year in the EPL.  Every time I look at this graphic I mentally congratulate Fulham for their longevity, a streak matched in the Premiership's history by Newcastle United after their promotion in Year 1 anno PL.

Monday, August 13, 2012

Graphic: Premier League survival rates

The graphic below shows the survival rates since the start of the millennium of teams promoted from The Championship.  It's a direct extension of a similar post authored at about this time last year.

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Arsenal finally swimming in the deep end

courtesy: guardian.co.uk/football
With their acquisition of Málaga's Santi Cazorla, Arsenal have for the third time this summer acquired a potential Premier League star. At worst, the twenty-seven year old will consign the somewhat-resurgent Tomas Rosicky and a turgid Andrei Arshavin to the North London scrapheap. At an unlikely best, his signature may even convince Robin van Persie to stay at the Emirates Stadium.

A classy attacking midfielder with a corner-seeking free kick, Cazorla will inherit the role of creative hub made vacant three times in recent seasons by injury and infirmity: Jack Wilshere's foot refuses to heal properly, Cesc Fabregas' homesickness finally bested him and Samir Nasri contracted a distressingly severe case of wandering-eye-syndrome (not a real condition). In Arsene Wenger's preferred 4-2-3-1 formation, Cazorla is liable to start in the middle behind van Persie or fellow newbie Olivier Giroud.

The squad has been reshaped dramatically from August last year. Fuelled by the 8-2 drubbing at the hands of Manchester United, Wenger threw cash to the four corners of Europe and came up with Mikel Arteta, Andre Santos, Chu-Young Park and Per Mertesacker. In retrospect, only Arteta performed to his potential during 2011-12, but each – except the lamentable Park – played a role in salvaging Arsenal's season.

With Podolski, Giroud and now Cazorla arriving however, that quartet's greatest contributions may not come as absolute first-teamers. Apart from (maybe) Arteta, not one of these four purchases projects in Arsenal's best XI. This isn't a bad thing, though: they provide the quality squad depth Arsenal has needed since The Invincibles.

Friday, June 1, 2012

Graphic: The most efficient teams in Europe

Following on from our half-season efficiency studies, the following chart demonstrates the each team's offensive/defensive efficiency in a single measure and compares it across all four European leagues.

Each team's defensive stolidity is calculated by finding out how many shots they faced per goal, while offensive precision is calculated by the same means (how many shots per goal).  There's little surprise that Juventus and Borussia Moenchengladbach had the best defenses, nor that Schalke, Real Madrid and Barcelona supplied the most clinical offenses.  Stay tuned for a year-to-year EPL comparison.

As usual, we suggest clicking on the chart to enlarge it.


Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Overachievers/underachievers: 2011-2012 EPL

 After compiling a cumulative Premiership table over the past twenty years, one comment suggested an alternative method of comparing lasting football league performance.  It suggested comparing club-by-club seasonal performance against their average league position (ALP).  As history only provides a certain precedent, the we can also use multiple time periods: say, five, ten or twenty years. This also serves as a reference point for season 2011-12: did your team outperform, meet or fail to live up to expectation?

The following table lists the 2011-12 Premier League clubs by final league position and compares it with their average league position over both 20 years and five years.  Performance arrows suggest how well the club's past season achievements compare to their recent and mid-term history.

Club (by league position) ALP 1993-2012
ALP 2008-2012
Manchester City
16.7
˄
5.6
˄
Manchester United
1.6
˅
1.4
-
Arsenal
3.6
˄
3.4
-
Tottenham Hotspur
9.9
˄
6.4
˄
Newcastle United
9.0
˄
13.6
˄
Chelsea
5.1
˅
2.8
˅
Everton
10.9
˄
6.4
˅
Liverpool
4.6
˅
5.4
˅
Fulham
31.7
˄
10.6
˄
West Bromwich Albion
26.9
˄
16.8
˄
Swansea City
58.5
˄
26.8
˄˄
Norwich City
27.6
˄
31.6
˄˄
Sunderland
20.3
˄
13.4
˄
Stoke City
32.4
˄
14.4
-
Wigan Athletic
42.0
˄
14.4
˅
Aston Villa
8.8
˅
8.6
˅
Queens Park Rangers
30.8
˄
27.2
˄
Bolton Wanderers
19
˄
15
˅
Blackburn Rovers
11.7
˅
13.2
˅
Wolverhampton Wanderers
26.3
˄
20
-

*Some context: the only club to even approach Manchester United's 20-year form is Bayern Munich, who in the two decades to 2012 boasted an ALP of 1.9.  They also won three fewer league titles (9) than the Red Devils (12).  During the same period, Barcelona won 9 Liga titles with an ALP of 2.15; rivals Real Madrid won 7 titles with ALP 2.35 while A.C. Milan managed only 5 titles and ALP 3.4.  Love or hate them, their consistency is admirable.*

Thursday, May 17, 2012

The Twenty-year Premier League table

The following is the cumulative Premier League table dating back to the inception of the Premier League in 1992-93.  Although I'm among the first to admit that English football hardly began with that league's debut season, the twenty year mark create an anniversary feeling, allowing reminiscences and us to compile this table.

Movers this year include Manchester City, who climbed from eleventh to fifth, and Wolves, whose inept displays after Mick McCarthy's dismissal left them at the bottom of the table.  Two consecutive strong seasons from West Brom has finally allowed them to climb from the bottom to their current position.  Click here to view last year's table.

Team
Years
Title
Range
Top 4
Top 10
Relegations
Pts
Avg
Avg GD
Man Utd
20
12
1 to 3
20
20
0
1663
83.15
44.05
Arsenal
20
3
1 to 12
17
19
0
1449
72.45
31.85
Chelsea
20
3
1 to 14
11
16
0
1402
70.1
26.95
Blackburn
18
1
1 to 19
3
11
2
969
53.83
1.28
Man City
15
1
1 to 18
2
8
2
783
52.2
2.33
Liverpool
20
0
2 to 8
15
20
0
1314
65.7
25.05
Leeds United
12
0
3 to 19
3
7
1
692
57.67
5.67
Newcastle
18
0
2 to 18
2
9
1
1017
56.5
6.83
Aston Villa
20
0
2 to 18
2
15
0
1091
54.55
3.15
Tottenham
20
0
4 to 15
2
14
0
1086
54.3
2.25
Everton
20
0
4 to 17
1
8
0
1033
51.65
0.1
QPR
5
0
5 to 19
0
3
1
250
50
-6.2
Norwich City
5
0
3 to 20
0
1
2
248
49.6
-13.2
Sheffield Wed.
8
0
7 to 19
0
3
1
392
49
-6.88
West Ham
16
0
5 to 20
0
8
2
764
47.75
-9.81
Derby County
7
0
8 to 20
0
2
2
274
46.6
-21.29
Fulham
11
0
7 to 17
0
4
0
511
46.45
-3.6
Stoke City
4
0
11 to 14
0
0
0
183
45.75
-12.5
Coventry City
9
0
11 to 19
0
0
1
409
45.44
-11.44
Southampton
13
0
8 to 20
0
3
1
587
45.15
-10
Charlton Athl.
8
0
7 to 19
0
2
2
361
45.13
-12.5
Ipswich Town
5
0
5 to 22
0
1
2
224
44.8
-18.6
Bolton
13
0
6 to 20
0
4
2
575
44.23
-13.08
Sheffield Utd
3
0
14 to 20
0
0
2
132
44
-13.33
Sunderland
10
0
7 to 20
0
3
3
440
44
-17.2
Middlesbrough
14
0
7 to 21
0
2
3
611
43.64
-8.57
Birmingham
7
0
9 to 19
0
2
3
301
43
-12.43
Leicester City
8
0
8 to 21
0
4
3
342
42.75
-12.75
Wigan
7
0
10 to 17
0
1
0
295
42.14
-20
Nottm Forest
5
0
3 to 22
1
2
3
199
39.8
-11.6
Crystal Palace
4
0
18 to 21
0
0
4
159
39.75
-18.75
Portsmouth
7
0
8 to 20
0
2
1
293
36.63
-12.57
West Brom
6
0
10 to 20
0
1
3
216
36
-21.83
Wolves
4
0
15 to 20
0
0
2
136
34
-30.75

Table is arranged by order of:
1. Premiership Titles
2. Top Four Berths minus Relegations to zero (ie. can't go negative); clean relegation sheet outweighs more Top 4s and more Relegations.
3. Average Points
4. Average Goal Difference

Monday, May 14, 2012

Where to now for Bolton Wanderers?

The Premier League season concluded with one of the more exciting final days in recent memory. While it was certain that either they or QPR would drop to the Championship, the manner of Bolton's ultimate demise was unexpected but eventually deserved. Since a promising start to 2010-11, the Trotters slid rapidly from an FA Cup semi-final appearance to a horrible 2011-12 season.

There was bad luck, such as key forward Chung-yong Lee breaking his leg or Stuart Holden missing most of the year; lack of form and age plagued Kevin Davies and Martin Petrov; decisively the Bolton defence was so leaky one imagines the architect planned it that way.

That Fabrice Muamba collapsed on the pitch at Spurs was again an incident even the best planning couldn't anticipate.

Coyle, only a year ago rumoured as a potential Arsenal manager, has an almighty job to lead his club back to the Premier League. Considering Bolton's rather unsound fiscal state, it is a task he'll likely be expected to complete at the first attempt. Here are four steps which will allow Bolton to earn back their Premiership status:

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Where to now for Blackburn Rovers?

When a club is relegated from their country's top division, any attempts to remedy that situation are based upon a number of key principles.

Firstly, one can most often safely assume that the club's owners want the club to succeed. Pursuant to this, those same owners must also be capable of understanding the ramifications of relegation both on their balance sheets and fan emotions. An ability – and willingness – to change what isn't working has usually led these owners to become one of the more wealthy people in the world; it should be expected owners can bring the same flexibility to sports business as well. As we well know, the last point is hardly a given.

Which brings us to a confusing point: how do we understand Venky's, the poultry-farming owners of relegated Blackburn Rovers? Since coming to power in October 2010, the company has almost wilfully alienated Rovers' proud fanbase with a procession of curious statements, odd transfer dealings and, most damningly, casual negligence.

When an autocrat has their subjects' best interests at heart, guessing their next move becomes a mite easier. So obscure have their methods been, predicting Venky's next move would have made Nostradamus rich beyond counting. However, it is obvious that with a prodigious fall from relative safety and a last-ditch escape from relegation last season, that changes must be made at Ewood Park lest the one-time Premier League champions recede into irrelevance.

With that said, here's some suggestions how Blackburn Rovers can move forward:

Keep Yakubu and Grant Hanley

Given Rovers' reluctance to commit to new or significant salaries, to think that Yakubu can stay at Rovers is extremely optimistic. The slowly-self-inflating front man had a great year for his new club, scoring 16 EPL goals this season in a return to form that would have surprised Everton and Nigeria fans alike. If he was able to produce that many goals from a team whose major creative sparks, outside Junior Hoilett, were David Dunn and Mauro Formica, he should own the Championship. His salary should be the one expensive one Rovers wear in hopes of a quick springboard back to the elite league.

Hanley is opposite: a young central defender who progressed through the Rover youth system and earned his position with a string of encouraging performances. He's good, and even better, he's cheap. With Hanley on board – and perhaps even Scott Dann, whose relegation record suggests some clubs aren't likely to touch him – Rovers should have one of the better central defensive duos in the second tier. Which brings us to …

Stop the bleeding

Both literally – they've allowed 76 goals so far this season despite the presence of Dann, Hanley and former England goalkeeper Paul Robinson – and figuratively. Rovers, through the actions and words of ownership, manager, ghost-managing player agent and even vociferous fans, have shown an alarming talent for scoring PR own-goals with a Richard Dunne-like frequency.

The one thing you can say for Rovers management is that they have (until recently) presented a relatively united front. However, squad faith in the manager varies from non-existent to excellent and fan faith in anyone attached to the club is like finding last night's thunderstorm. Make of West Ham and Messrs Gold and Sullivan what you will, but on relegation last term they clearly laid out their plans for a return to the Premiership. Rovers fans need – and deserve – the same clarity.

On-field, the situation is much easier to remedy: in direct opposition to his predecessor, Kean has promulgated an intriguing ability to keep Rovers scoring. However, it has come at the expense of any defensive stolidity at all – a fact highlighted by the departures of Phil Jones, Christopher Samba and Ryan Nelsen. Even Steven Nzonzi, who for the last two seasons has exhibited a lot of promise, was expelled from the squad as Rovers gazed at relegation. He defines rangy and can deconstruct many opposition forward moves – he needs to play.

Freeing the beast within Nzonzi comes with the one, eternal Rovers caveat: everything depends on if they can afford to keep him.

Publicly define Jerome Anderson's role

Only three years ago, Jerome Anderson was a football agent. On his books he had Steve Kean, amidst a plethora of middling-to-impressive football names. Also, he fronted his son Myles. Many of Blackburn's signings are alleged to have derived from Anderson's dealings; he is also rumoured to have been behind the firing of Sam Allardyce and subsequent installation of Kean. Suggestions of his intimate involvement with ownership only strengthened when Rovers signed Myles Anderson despite the player failing to make an impression at SPL side Aberdeen.

No-one outside the Rovers hierarchy is fully aware of how deeply Jerome Anderson's tendrils infiltrate the club. One thing is certain: such opacity suits him, but damages the club's credibility. Venky's need to prioritise either their relationship with Anderson or the club's public face.

Fix the Kean problem

Image courtesy: telegraph.co.uk
Kean's hands probably aren't clean of Allardyce's demise, nor have his tactics (which resemble a kitchen colander) inspired fan confidence. Despite incessant furore he remains respected as a coach, if not necessarily as a manager. He should be respected for getting the best from Yakubu, Hanley and Hoilett; this is balanced by his confusing relationship with Samba, Nelsen and Salgado.

In the Championship, he should have fewer gnarled veterans and more of his own foot soldiers; this in itself should promise a reasonable season. However, in sections of the media and much of Rovers fandom, his reputation is below basement level. He remains, though, obviously ownership's man.

Firing him would quickly remove the second-biggest trigger for fan ire, but may not actually provoke a better response from a team which could navigate the likes of Cardiff City and Watford quite well. Like transfers, the earlier a decision is made, the better for the club.

Kean credibility needs a quick and powerful salve. Much like Terry Connor at Wolves, he is in many ways the victim of circumstance, the puppet for faceless men. What stands against him is his alleged role in creating that situation. It is Venky's position to create a situation in which their man can thrive, but they have hardly done so. Clarifying Anderson's role and publicly drafting their plan for negotiating the Championship would allow much more perspective – and provide grounds to remove Kean should he continue to prove inconvenient or incapable.