Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Overachievers/underachievers: 2011-2012 EPL

 After compiling a cumulative Premiership table over the past twenty years, one comment suggested an alternative method of comparing lasting football league performance.  It suggested comparing club-by-club seasonal performance against their average league position (ALP).  As history only provides a certain precedent, the we can also use multiple time periods: say, five, ten or twenty years. This also serves as a reference point for season 2011-12: did your team outperform, meet or fail to live up to expectation?

The following table lists the 2011-12 Premier League clubs by final league position and compares it with their average league position over both 20 years and five years.  Performance arrows suggest how well the club's past season achievements compare to their recent and mid-term history.

Club (by league position) ALP 1993-2012
ALP 2008-2012
Manchester City
16.7
˄
5.6
˄
Manchester United
1.6
˅
1.4
-
Arsenal
3.6
˄
3.4
-
Tottenham Hotspur
9.9
˄
6.4
˄
Newcastle United
9.0
˄
13.6
˄
Chelsea
5.1
˅
2.8
˅
Everton
10.9
˄
6.4
˅
Liverpool
4.6
˅
5.4
˅
Fulham
31.7
˄
10.6
˄
West Bromwich Albion
26.9
˄
16.8
˄
Swansea City
58.5
˄
26.8
˄˄
Norwich City
27.6
˄
31.6
˄˄
Sunderland
20.3
˄
13.4
˄
Stoke City
32.4
˄
14.4
-
Wigan Athletic
42.0
˄
14.4
˅
Aston Villa
8.8
˅
8.6
˅
Queens Park Rangers
30.8
˄
27.2
˄
Bolton Wanderers
19
˄
15
˅
Blackburn Rovers
11.7
˅
13.2
˅
Wolverhampton Wanderers
26.3
˄
20
-

*Some context: the only club to even approach Manchester United's 20-year form is Bayern Munich, who in the two decades to 2012 boasted an ALP of 1.9.  They also won three fewer league titles (9) than the Red Devils (12).  During the same period, Barcelona won 9 Liga titles with an ALP of 2.15; rivals Real Madrid won 7 titles with ALP 2.35 while A.C. Milan managed only 5 titles and ALP 3.4.  Love or hate them, their consistency is admirable.*

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