Overachievers/underachievers: 2011-2012 EPL

 After compiling a cumulative Premiership table over the past twenty years, one comment suggested an alternative method of comparing lasting football league performance.  It suggested comparing club-by-club seasonal performance against their average league position (ALP).  As history only provides a certain precedent, the we can also use multiple time periods: say, five, ten or twenty years. This also serves as a reference point for season 2011-12: did your team outperform, meet or fail to live up to expectation?

The following table lists the 2011-12 Premier League clubs by final league position and compares it with their average league position over both 20 years and five years.  Performance arrows suggest how well the club's past season achievements compare to their recent and mid-term history.

Club (by league position)	ALP 1993-2012		ALP 2008-2012
Manchester City	16.7	˄	5.6	˄
Manchester United	1.6	˅	1.4	-
Arsenal	3.6	˄	3.4	-
Tottenham Hotspur	9.9	˄	6.4	˄
Newcastle United	9.0	˄	13.6	˄
Chelsea	5.1	˅	2.8	˅
Everton	10.9	˄	6.4	˅
Liverpool	4.6	˅	5.4	˅
Fulham	31.7	˄	10.6	˄
West Bromwich Albion	26.9	˄	16.8	˄
Swansea City	58.5	˄	26.8	˄˄
Norwich City	27.6	˄	31.6	˄˄
Sunderland	20.3	˄	13.4	˄
Stoke City	32.4	˄	14.4	-
Wigan Athletic	42.0	˄	14.4	˅
Aston Villa	8.8	˅	8.6	˅
Queens Park Rangers	30.8	˄	27.2	˄
Bolton Wanderers	19	˄	15	˅
Blackburn Rovers	11.7	˅	13.2	˅
Wolverhampton Wanderers	26.3	˄	20	-

*Some context: the only club to even approach Manchester United's 20-year form is Bayern Munich, who in the two decades to 2012 boasted an ALP of 1.9.  They also won three fewer league titles (9) than the Red Devils (12).  During the same period, Barcelona won 9 Liga titles with an ALP of 2.15; rivals Real Madrid won 7 titles with ALP 2.35 while A.C. Milan managed only 5 titles and ALP 3.4.  Love or hate them, their consistency is admirable.*

The Twenty-year Premier League table

The following is the cumulative Premier League table dating back to the inception of the Premier League in 1992-93.  Although I'm among the first to admit that English football hardly began with that league's debut season, the twenty year mark create an anniversary feeling, allowing reminiscences and us to compile this table.

Movers this year include Manchester City, who climbed from eleventh to fifth, and Wolves, whose inept displays after Mick McCarthy's dismissal left them at the bottom of the table.  Two consecutive strong seasons from West Brom has finally allowed them to climb from the bottom to their current position.  Click here to view last year's table.

Team	Years	Title	Range	Top 4	Top 10	Relegations	Pts	Avg	Avg GD
Man Utd	20	12	1 to 3	20	20	0	1663	83.15	44.05
Arsenal	20	3	1 to 12	17	19	0	1449	72.45	31.85
Chelsea	20	3	1 to 14	11	16	0	1402	70.1	26.95
Blackburn	18	1	1 to 19	3	11	2	969	53.83	1.28
Man City	15	1	1 to 18	2	8	2	783	52.2	2.33
Liverpool	20	0	2 to 8	15	20	0	1314	65.7	25.05
Leeds United	12	0	3 to 19	3	7	1	692	57.67	5.67
Newcastle	18	0	2 to 18	2	9	1	1017	56.5	6.83
Aston Villa	20	0	2 to 18	2	15	0	1091	54.55	3.15
Tottenham	20	0	4 to 15	2	14	0	1086	54.3	2.25
Everton	20	0	4 to 17	1	8	0	1033	51.65	0.1
QPR	5	0	5 to 19	0	3	1	250	50	-6.2
Norwich City	5	0	3 to 20	0	1	2	248	49.6	-13.2
Sheffield Wed.	8	0	7 to 19	0	3	1	392	49	-6.88
West Ham	16	0	5 to 20	0	8	2	764	47.75	-9.81
Derby County	7	0	8 to 20	0	2	2	274	46.6	-21.29
Fulham	11	0	7 to 17	0	4	0	511	46.45	-3.6
Stoke City	4	0	11 to 14	0	0	0	183	45.75	-12.5
Coventry City	9	0	11 to 19	0	0	1	409	45.44	-11.44
Southampton	13	0	8 to 20	0	3	1	587	45.15	-10
Charlton Athl.	8	0	7 to 19	0	2	2	361	45.13	-12.5
Ipswich Town	5	0	5 to 22	0	1	2	224	44.8	-18.6
Bolton	13	0	6 to 20	0	4	2	575	44.23	-13.08
Sheffield Utd	3	0	14 to 20	0	0	2	132	44	-13.33
Sunderland	10	0	7 to 20	0	3	3	440	44	-17.2
Middlesbrough	14	0	7 to 21	0	2	3	611	43.64	-8.57
Birmingham	7	0	9 to 19	0	2	3	301	43	-12.43
Leicester City	8	0	8 to 21	0	4	3	342	42.75	-12.75
Wigan	7	0	10 to 17	0	1	0	295	42.14	-20
Nottm Forest	5	0	3 to 22	1	2	3	199	39.8	-11.6
Crystal Palace	4	0	18 to 21	0	0	4	159	39.75	-18.75
Portsmouth	7	0	8 to 20	0	2	1	293	36.63	-12.57
West Brom	6	0	10 to 20	0	1	3	216	36	-21.83
Wolves	4	0	15 to 20	0	0	2	136	34	-30.75

Table is arranged by order of:

1. Premiership Titles

2. Top Four Berths minus Relegations to zero (ie. can't go negative); clean relegation sheet outweighs more Top 4s and more Relegations.

3. Average Points

4. Average Goal Difference

The EPL run home "analyzed"

As the Premier League season rampages towards the Manchester derby which will (probably) decide the ultimate route and destination of this season's victory parade, we've got enough data from the season in progress to suggest how results for the rest of the season plays out.  The season is now thirty games old for each club, with the last eight enough to determine who raises the cup this season, which of the upstart clubs finishes with a well-earned chance at European football and which clubs will be facing derbies next season with the likes of MK Dons, Watford or Burnley.

So far, the information that may be the most telling as we enter the season's waning weeks is how each of the teams in the battle to play Champions League football next season got to be where they now are.
The table below includes the five teams currently slated to play continental football next season. It indicates what percentage of available points they have secured against opposition in different parts of the table. For example, Manchester City have played four times against teams currently in the relegation zone and won each encounter. Therefore, they have attained 100% of the points available from those four matches. Chelsea, however, have managed only two wins and a draw from their four encounters with current drop-zone residents – a more sickly 58%.

	Available points achieved by club (%):
Versus teams:	Man United	Man City	Arsenal	Tottenham	Chelsea
In relegation zone	100	100	78	87	58
Are relegation threatened	86	100	52	90	76
In table's bottom half	90	88	64	83	56
“Mid-table”	79	65	71	69	52
In table's top half	69	67	56	42	49
League Top 5	76	83	33	21	29
Total	81	78	64	61	56

For the purposes of this illustration, “Mid-table” includes all teams not currently occupying European slots or in danger of relegation. This means all teams from position 6 – 15 are included, no matter how turgid their play or how daunting their final fixtures appear).  Data correct to Thursday, March 29th.

We can automatically surmise that this season's Premier League has more of a Spanish – or Scottish – appearance to it. The lack competition at the top is galling - and even worse in graphical form (click to enlarge the graph).  While it's expected that clubs lose more points against higher opposition, for a league which champions itself as the most even in Europe, the strength of the Manchester clubs is starkly apparent.

Click to enlarge.

This term displays a major duopoly as the twinn'd Manchester clubs have been markedly more adept at taking points from other so-called “elite” opponents.

 This bodes well for City, in particular, as their April 30^th derby approaches – soon after a trip to Arsenal. Given their record, prior games against mid-table Norwich City and West Brom could provide more hurdlese than their matches against the Red Devils and Gunners. 


Once we depart Manchester, the numbers are just as revealing. Third and fourth positions are the subject of another local rivalry, as despite an ugly start to the season, Arsenal have earned their current tabular position, while Spurs appear a team of bullies. Redknapp's men have extracted only a win and two draws from eight encounters with Top 5 opponents (five points from twenty-four). For Chelsea, these numbers show definitively the poor fit between players and former manager Andre Villas-Boas: last year, Carlo Ancelotti was canned after accumulating more points (by percentage) against every category of opposition.

Complete English Premier League Table, 1993-2011

Yes, we know, we're stat-heads and have no life. At least, that's what it feels like at times! But the pointy-heads at Balanced Sports have spent the past several hours slaving over an increasingly hot lap-top to bring you THE COMPLETE ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE TABLE since 1993!

Manchester United sits atop with twelve titles, but who sits behind them? Arsenal? Chelsea? Palace? The Battersea Home for Lost Dogs third XI ... click across to find out. (It's too big to post here).