EPL: Promoted clubs' survival rates to 2015

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Football's fate worse than death: stupidity

Relegation from the English Premier League is costly, we get it*. It’s therefore to be avoided – especially when you have spent (or are spending) a ton of money to get to your current elevated perch of seventeenth-best club in the nation.

For Chris Hughton, manager of Norwich City, apparently it’s more than that – it’s “a matter of life and death”. He’s been told that by his CEO at the Canaries, David McNally, so it must be true. Should his club fall into the relegation zone, his position becomes forfeit and the club will spuriously employ someone(s) else in an attempt to stop losing both matches and eventually money.

Norwich City fans have every right to be a “fine” with McNally’s statement. Death is not nice, even in a sporting sense. It would be a horrible thing to see the Canaries wink out of existence altogether. On the other hand, relegation merely would be a fiscal encumbrance (and would presumably lead to the knock-on departures of key players Gary Hooper, Leroy Fer and Wes Hoolahan).

There’s a difference between “death” and financially disadvantaged – even Paris Hilton manages to distinguish between the two.

Even though Norwich City are a club that don’t feature a Sugar Daddy, as a Premiership team they are privileged to receive a wonderful income as a result of their past successes in League One and the Championship. For a CEO to advertise the loss of those revenues as a tragedy akin to death is insensitive, arrant nonsense.

Taking death at its most simplest definition, McNally's comments are shown in an extremely poor light by the deaths of migrants working on Qatari stadia for the entertainment of football fans and fatuous glorification of the hosts.

In a sporting sense, comparing a season or two (or ten) outside the Premiership to ceasing to exist is … unnerving. It’s also an undeserved rebuke to the fans of Wimbledon, Darlington, Chester City or any club unfortunate enough to have folded during the Premiership’s money-hungry existence.

Philosophers don't come more unlikely than Arnold Judas Rimmer. Red Dwarf's cowardly antagonist was, however, on occasion wont to wax poetic and deep. In the final moments of the last episode of Season Six, he conjured up one of these moments stating "Better dead than smeg". With his greedy insensitivity, David McNally has apparently made the opposite choice.

* It’s both remarkable and extremely funny that an article on English football is posted under “highbrow sports”.

10-year form chart, English Championship promotion contenders

Perhaps this year they can do it.

Maybe, just maybe, this is the year that Cardiff City can break their five-year playoff hoodoo and finally earn promotion to the Premier League.  Few would argue that they're deserving - the Bluebirds Dragons have finished thereabouts in English football's second tier for half a decade as well appearing at Wembley in FA and League Cup Finals - yet seem always to develop a flopsweat of Nixonian proportions during the season's most crucial weeks.

Cardiff and their rivals for automatic promotion - at this stage, mainly a rejuvenated Hull City and Gianfranco Zola's time-shared Watford squad - are without question the best three teams the Championship have to offer.  As an added bonus and in contrast to some other upstarts ascendent, all three should also have the resources to make a splash should they rise into the the Premiership, albeit through vastly different methods.

The peloton features PYTs of management, Gus Poyet and Dougie Freedman (whose current and ex-clubs find themselves in the chase).  It should come as no surprise that a surging Nottingham Forest - with their demonstrable playoff chops - find themselves firmly ensconced in fifth position.

Each team has its own narrative: Cardiff's collection of close misses, the Return of the King at Forest and even an Egyptian connection at Hull City made especially poignant by that country's recent football history.  The Premier League will be a richer - and more curious - league for their impending presence.

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QPR's Townsend, the £40 million man

When they loaned Andros Townsend to QPR in late January, Tottenham Hotspur sat fourth in the Premiership and could be well satisfied with their past two months.  After taking nineteen points from a possible thirty, they looked forward to a February facing strictly mid-table clubs.

With Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon offering a pincer attack in outstanding form – and Clint Dempsey, Lewis Holtby and Gylfi Sigurdsson available as well – the club presumably felt they could afford the luxury of allowing the youngster to grow by playing Premier League football regularly.

Townsend, 21, might actually cost Spurs more than anticipated.

He has become – without question – Rangers’ most important player; moreover, he has shown why Harry Redknapp (who, curiously, largely ignored him while at Spurs) took him on a rental across London.  Over the past month Townsend has been the dominant player in the Premiership, regularly beating opponents for pace and guile before swinging crosses into threatening positions. 

His seven games in hoops have borne out two scores, an assist and three Player of the Match nods in his past four matches.  The streak has left him, according to the reputable WhoScored.com, with a cumulative Player Rating for his QPR spell of a stratospheric 7.83.

Left backs both experienced and fleet-of-foot have been preyed upon: his Loftus Road locker boasts the heads of Javier Garrido, Rafael, Danny Rose, Matthew Lowton, John Arne Riise and most recently, Maynor Figueroa.

While hard to fathom after a gut-wrenching draw on the weekend, Townsend could prove the difference between the Hoops’ survival and relegation.  Should Rs stay up – and save owner Tony Fernandes  at least £25 million – it will be on Townsend’s back.

Although figures that size aren’t to be sniffed at, Townsend’s true value might be felt more by his parent club.  Since rising to third in the league in February, Spurs have struggled to cement entry into next year’s Champions League.  While a lack of strikers has been implicit to this shakiness, the team has struggled more since the loss of Lennon – and now Bale – to injury.

Neither Dempsey nor Sigurdsson are as inclined to create for others as for themselves, meaning forward thrusts at White Hart Lane – and, more crucially, away from home – have lacked the incision and penetration of the past six months.  This has only been compounded by the Bale-shaped void on the left wing.  The impetus that marked Spurs’ outstanding form of early 2013 is obvious for its absence.

Should Spurs falter further in the season’s waning weeks, they risk the riches of Europe’s premier competition – which is where missing Townsend really begins to hurt.  Although estimates vary, Champions League group-stage entrants can expect to receive windfalls of a minimum £16 million plus income from extra home games.  Clubs who progress to the Elimination stages could stand to collect up to another £25 million. 

Should Spurs’ absent forwards mean they finish out of UCL contention while Townsend leads Rangers to an unlikely continued existence in the top division, the net turnaround could be as much as £42 million.  While no-one was to know Townsend was capable of replicating his QPR form with Tottenham – the game of “What if” is appropriate only in MathNet – this swing puts him alongside a certain other West Londoner as the only Premiership players worth over £40 million.

Villa's Benteke the Premier League's key man

Christian Benteke might be the most important player in the English Premiership. 

The forward's strengths (especially physically) by far outweigh any weaknesses: the deadline-day signing from Genk is fast, accurate, remarkably powerful and has an incredible happy knack of finding space in the box. 

Any questions as to Aston Villa manager Paul Lambert starting “his man” over the similarly-named Darren Bent have been made completely redundant.  Benteke has goaled 13 times this term and assisted four more scores, making him responsible for over half of Villa’s goals during 2012-13 – 54.8% to be precise. 

While numbers usually tell only half the tale, this figure is nonetheless impressive: of all players with more than ten goals this term, he ranks alongside the likes of Celta Vigo’s Iago Aspas (59.25%), Messi (59.1%), Zlatan (56.6%), Atalanta’s Erik Lamela (53.3%) as players who contribute to over 50% of their club’s goals.

However important as his goals have been, his physical and implied presence has had more of an impact in this year’s relegation struggle.  In Villa’s recent wins against fellow battlers QPR and Reading, he has not only scored goals but routinely drawn multiple defenders, thereby allowing striking partners Gaby Agbonlahor and Andreas Weimann the freedom they need to score.

Quite simply, he has been the difference between Villa’s recent wins against their struggling brethren.  None of Reading, Wigan Athletic or QPR have a player who demands the same respect from defenders and tacticians alike.  And with the amount of money staked upon Premiership survival, this probably makes him the most irreplaceable man in the league.

Expanded EPL survival rates now available

On Monday we published the survival rates of every team promoted to the English Premier League from the League Championship since the start of the year.

Because I like to be thorough and because we're about to enter the Premiership's 21st season, I expanded the diagram (and hopefully made it somewhat clearer) to take in every promoted team since the inception of the league in 1992-93.

As usual, years spent continuously in the top division are indicated in azure, while any season spent in the Premier League after promotion-relegation-promotion are represented by green.  Red denotes any season spent outside the Premiership, because we all know football begins and ends there (/sarcasm).

Copyright Balanced Sports

As you can see, Second Season Syndrome is perhaps an overstated phenomenon, with only six instances of a club being relegated after their second year in the EPL.  Every time I look at this graphic I mentally congratulate Fulham for their longevity, a streak matched in the Premiership's history by Newcastle United after their promotion in Year 1 anno PL.

Graphic: Premier League survival rates

The graphic below shows the survival rates since the start of the millennium of teams promoted from The Championship.  It's a direct extension of a similar post authored at about this time last year.

Where to now for Bolton Wanderers?

The Premier League season concluded with one of the more exciting final days in recent memory. While it was certain that either they or QPR would drop to the Championship, the manner of Bolton's ultimate demise was unexpected but eventually deserved. Since a promising start to 2010-11, the Trotters slid rapidly from an FA Cup semi-final appearance to a horrible 2011-12 season.

There was bad luck, such as key forward Chung-yong Lee breaking his leg or Stuart Holden missing most of the year; lack of form and age plagued Kevin Davies and Martin Petrov; decisively the Bolton defence was so leaky one imagines the architect planned it that way.

That Fabrice Muamba collapsed on the pitch at Spurs was again an incident even the best planning couldn't anticipate.

Coyle, only a year ago rumoured as a potential Arsenal manager, has an almighty job to lead his club back to the Premier League. Considering Bolton's rather unsound fiscal state, it is a task he'll likely be expected to complete at the first attempt. Here are four steps which will allow Bolton to earn back their Premiership status:

Teams of the Year - by league position

As the Premier League season draws to a close, it becomes typical to start vetting candidates for awards. Why wouldn't you? I mean, it's like writing about All-Star selections in the NBA – it's easy column inches relying on relative opinions rather than absolute logic and saves you from using undeveloped ideas before they're fully mapped out.

So with seven matches per club left in the English Premiership, the blogosphere gets inundated with posts describing Team/Player/Manager of the Season, Biggest Surprise/Disappointment, Best/Worst Transfer and Favourite Fernando Torres hairstyle.

(Personally, I think he looks better blonde, but he's not wearing it with the same panache he did at Liverpool. It's been one – more – tough year for Fernando).

Recently I've wondered what actually constitutes the “mid-table”. It turns out it's a disparate concept with no strict boundaries, utterly reliant on individual point of view. The closest I've been able to find on the internet of finite definition has been in the black-and-white world of a Football Manager forum – so the chances of me using this information as accurate data are precisely zero.

For the time being I'm happy to characterise the mid-table as teams not likely to earn continental football as a result of their league position, but teams that are also not in danger of relegation. This means, for now, the mid-table encompasses everyone between seventh-positioned Everton and West Bromwich Albion in fifteenth spot.

Given the fact that, for the most part, the most rich and talent-heavy clubs may as well play in their own little league, it's an interesting exercise to select separate “Teams of the Year” from clubs in each section of the table – those contending for Europe, “mid-table” teams and those relegation threatened clubs.

European contenders (4-4-2): Hart, M. Richards, Luiz, Kompany, A. Cole, Tiote, Y. Toure, Bale, Mata, Rooney, van Persie.

Mid-table (4-4-2): T. Howard, Naughton, Huth, Skrtl, Baines, Britton, Sigurdsson, Dempsey, Larsson, Sessegnon, Suarez.

Relegation-threatened (4-4-2): Given, L. Young, Hanley, Berra, Warnock, McCarthy, M. Davies, Hoilett, Moses, Bent, Yakubu.

Only players playing 20 games or more were considered – unless winner of a Player of the Month award (Sigurdsson).

The table above displays quite succinctly the deepening Premier League class divide; a gap it's taken an immense effort from a no-name Newcastle squad to breach. While the selection semantics are polemical – recent form dips cost Silva, Ba and Aguero for mine – suggesting there isn't a boundary of player quality between teams competing for European football this season's and those who are not.

More strikingly, could these “best of the rest” outfits be competitive with clubs in the table's upper reaches? An overactive imagination could convince that the Mid-table team could challenge for a spot in the Champions League if everything went right – but surely no more?

The EPL run home "analyzed"

As the Premier League season rampages towards the Manchester derby which will (probably) decide the ultimate route and destination of this season's victory parade, we've got enough data from the season in progress to suggest how results for the rest of the season plays out.  The season is now thirty games old for each club, with the last eight enough to determine who raises the cup this season, which of the upstart clubs finishes with a well-earned chance at European football and which clubs will be facing derbies next season with the likes of MK Dons, Watford or Burnley.

So far, the information that may be the most telling as we enter the season's waning weeks is how each of the teams in the battle to play Champions League football next season got to be where they now are.
The table below includes the five teams currently slated to play continental football next season. It indicates what percentage of available points they have secured against opposition in different parts of the table. For example, Manchester City have played four times against teams currently in the relegation zone and won each encounter. Therefore, they have attained 100% of the points available from those four matches. Chelsea, however, have managed only two wins and a draw from their four encounters with current drop-zone residents – a more sickly 58%.

	Available points achieved by club (%):
Versus teams:	Man United	Man City	Arsenal	Tottenham	Chelsea
In relegation zone	100	100	78	87	58
Are relegation threatened	86	100	52	90	76
In table's bottom half	90	88	64	83	56
“Mid-table”	79	65	71	69	52
In table's top half	69	67	56	42	49
League Top 5	76	83	33	21	29
Total	81	78	64	61	56

For the purposes of this illustration, “Mid-table” includes all teams not currently occupying European slots or in danger of relegation. This means all teams from position 6 – 15 are included, no matter how turgid their play or how daunting their final fixtures appear).  Data correct to Thursday, March 29th.

We can automatically surmise that this season's Premier League has more of a Spanish – or Scottish – appearance to it. The lack competition at the top is galling - and even worse in graphical form (click to enlarge the graph).  While it's expected that clubs lose more points against higher opposition, for a league which champions itself as the most even in Europe, the strength of the Manchester clubs is starkly apparent.

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This term displays a major duopoly as the twinn'd Manchester clubs have been markedly more adept at taking points from other so-called “elite” opponents.

 This bodes well for City, in particular, as their April 30^th derby approaches – soon after a trip to Arsenal. Given their record, prior games against mid-table Norwich City and West Brom could provide more hurdlese than their matches against the Red Devils and Gunners. 


Once we depart Manchester, the numbers are just as revealing. Third and fourth positions are the subject of another local rivalry, as despite an ugly start to the season, Arsenal have earned their current tabular position, while Spurs appear a team of bullies. Redknapp's men have extracted only a win and two draws from eight encounters with Top 5 opponents (five points from twenty-four). For Chelsea, these numbers show definitively the poor fit between players and former manager Andre Villas-Boas: last year, Carlo Ancelotti was canned after accumulating more points (by percentage) against every category of opposition.

What I'd like for Christmas

In an annual tradition, we look at the bottom ten teams in the Premier League and ask what wish they'd really like granted for Christmas.  Here's what we think they'd say:

Bolton Wanderers:  A team that challenged for a top-half finishlast season now at the bottom of the table?  What could we possibly want?  Thinking big, Gary Cahill to sign to a new contract (or to receive heaps on his sale) and the broken leg corps (Lee Chung-Yong & Tyrone Mears) to recover swiftly enough to mount a second-half charge.

Blackburn Rovers:   The fans want Steve Kean out, the board want Champions' League football, Steve Kean wants the fans not to want Steve Kean out ... could we just settle for stability?  This may take the departure of one of the three entities above, and hopefully not the already-declining crowd numbers.

Wigan:   We'd love the talented Victor Moses to convert his opportunities more regularly, and Hugo Rodallega to turn from back into the guy whose goals last year kept us up to partner him.

Wolves:  There's not much to say about Wolves - we aren't playing above ourselves and neither are we playing badly, we just haven't won enough.  If the teams around us keep struggling, we should have enough to avoid a last-day scramble like last year.  If Kevin Doyle could turn lead-up play into scoring would also be grand.

Sunderland:  I think the thing we wish for most is for Martin O'Neill to work his magic quickly before the confidence lost during Steve Bruce's bunker days becomes terminal and we slide, Hammer-like, into the Championship.  If you're feeling generous, Santa, you could also convince Asamoah Gyan that Wearside really isn't such a bad place now Brucie's gone.

QPR:  For a Neil Warnock team, we've got remarkably few complaints as to the season so far.  Adel Taarabt has been remarkably quiet this year (a combined 0 goals + assists, compared to last year's oustanding tally of 35) and we'd like him to find his feet at this level, and for Joey Barton to continue focusing on football and not Nietzche.

Everton:  Santa, our biggest wish is for the club to be sold to someone with enough money to invest in either the squad, a new arena or both.  If new loanee Landon Donovan can contirbute more than Denis Stracqualursi and last year's bargain Apostolos Vellios keeps improving, we'll be (somewhat) satisfied.

West Bromwich Albion:  We'd like Shane Long and Peter Odemwingie to gel really well as a forward tandem.  Even though our back five will give up a few goals, if those two combine and fire rather than one at a time, we'll stay up and could even give the top ten a run for their money.

Swansea City:  If someone other than our goalkeeper, Michael Vorm, could really assert themselves as a top-flight Premier League performer, we should avoid relegation and continue a Welsh football renaissance.  Scott Sinclair, Wayne Routledge, Joe Allen, and Ashley Williams have performed reasonably well, but we'd love one or two of our midfielders or forwards to grab a few games by the scruff of the neck.

Fulham:   Costa Rican import Bryan Ruiz owned the Dutch league while at Twente Enschede; so far he's struggled to bed in well with our other forwards Dempsey, Zamora and Johnson.  No-one doubts his talent, just his fit.  If he could fire, we could challenge for the Europa League again.

Aston Villa:   We'd like Alex McLeish to "free the beast" and let our offensive talents Marc Albrighton, Charles N'Zogbia, Gaby Agbonlahor and Darren Bent free.  This staid, boring football isn't suited to such pacy attacking players.

Survival of the fittest (wealthiest?)

Poetic - sometimes, if we're feeling really good. Evocative? Occasionally. Artistic - hardly. But as we mentioned on Wednesday, the graphic below is about as artistic as Balanced Sports get.

click graphic to enlarge

It plots the survival rates of teams promoted to the Premiership across the past decade and tells a stark tale. While Blackburn, Bolton and Fulham have survived - some would even say thrived - at the top level, the tales of greatest success are to be found in the early part of the past decade when they were joined by Manchester City, Portsmouth, West Ham and Wigan in establishing themselves as Premier League entities.

Of 30 teams promoted, thirteen have gone straight back down.

Elimated after	1 Year	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Teams	13	6**	1*	2*	1*	1	2*	0	0	1*	3***

* Denotes number of teams still in Premier League.

A "Survival Analysis" on such a small sample size would be ineffective given the group loses nearly 50% of it's members after a first year relegation. But were we to examine how many clubs had a five-year survival rate, exactly one promoted club in three stays in the division for five years or more. That means of the 21 teams who could have been in the Premier League for five years by this season (ie. all those teams promoted 2007 or before), seven have survived that length of time.

However, should we withdraw those clubs arriving B.R. (before Roman (Abramovich), who for better or worse changed football forever with his petro-roubles) - that number drops slightly to 26.67%. However, this also includes the recently relegated clubs West Ham United and Portsmouth, who nearly bankrupted themselves with exorbitant wages, the global financial crisis, multiple court appearances and other sundry expenses.

This proves once again that Stoke manager Tony Pulis is correct in his thinking: that three seasons of consolidation should be enough to establish oneself.  With prudent investment - leading to crucial squad refreshment - Premier League status can be retained.  It's all so simple, isn't it?

Not really.  A team must make the choice to thrive and perhaps risk financial crisis (cf. Portsmouth - one FA Cup for debt so large it makes Greece smirk) or simply enjoy an EPL existence, like current relegation favourites Wigan Athletic.  The chasm between first and second divisions hasn't been this great in some time, if ever.  

Even the glory days of Promotion at the turn of the millennium weren't as straightforward as it would seem.  While Bolton Wanderers operated on a shoestring and Sam Allardyce's Route-1 football, Fulham and Manchester City have both benefited from the largesse of a financial benefactor.  As Everton's Bill Kenwright would attest, it's no longer enough to just get to the league and try your chances. 

The two promotion successes of recent years - Sunderland and Stoke City - followed the same model; backed by owners Ellis Short and Peter Coates' combination of fiscal prudency and healthy hip pockets. Along with Wolves, whose finances are also healthy, this trio look likely to maintain this one-in-three average of promoted sides remaining in the division at the expense of smaller clubs and hamstrung owners.

Promoted teams' survival rates

(click photo to enlarge)

Key: Blue = Uninterrupted Premier League tenure; Red = In lower division; Grey = season yet to be played; Green = team in Premier League after relegation (and probable lineup changes).

The above chart maps the fortunes of all the teams promoted tot he English Premier League since 2001.  It shows the startling decrease over the past four years of promoted teams strengthening over time.

Full analysis coming Friday.  As this is as artistic as I get, thought it was worth sharing early.

Charlie Adam: from Bottom to Top

Charlie Adam appears to have finally sealed a move to Liverpool, six months after it was first mooted during the January transfer window. Now, the questions that remain aren't so much when and how much (a mooted ₤7 million-plus-loanees), but how he and his magical left boot will fit into Liverpool's now increasingly crowded central midfield. While he indubitably has the skill, fire and vision, his greatest drawback may be his body shape as he hearkens back to the days of solid footballers, rather than lithe athletes.

Charlie Adam's Wikipedia page in January

Perhaps more interestingly, he becomes the first player to jump from a Premiership relegated club to one of the "big" clubs in quite some considerable time. He is certainly the first to go to an established , Old-School"Big Four" club for a sizeable fee (and thus expectation) since Peter Crouch moved from the south coast to the north-west. This indicates easily how reliant on him Blackpool became, and also how warmly fellow Scot Kenny Dalglish must think of his countryman.

Over the past few seasons, plenty of players have used the predicament of relegation to their advantage: in fact, raiding the relegated has become an annual pastime for those clubs chock-full of TV revenue. After season 2010-2011 alone, many players stand to improve their footballing and financial fortunes as their clubs slide back into the Championship. Adam's fellow Blackpool standouts David Vaughan, Matt Gilks and DJ Campbell look likely to depart - or have already. The entire Birmigham City defense looks liable to be for sale to the highest bid considering their English roots and 2009-10 efficacy, while Scott Parker, Rob Green, Carlton Cole, Thomas Hitzlsperger and Matthew Upson are all established Internationals with English roots and an eye for Premier League, rather than Championship, football.

That most (if not all) these players will be in the Premiership next term is testament to the wonderful season of English Premier League football we have just experienced - not vintage in terms of great play, but by recent standards surprising, combative and very, very even.

But very few players make the leap from the very bottom to the very top. Those who do often arrive as role players or depth and without significant expectation. In recent memory, those that stand out as being snaffled by top-six sides include Crouch, Michael Owen's fabulous Bosman from Newcastle to a new injury-list in the red half of Manchester and Ross Turnbull's astonishing free to Chelsea - surprising more for the Blues' desire than for any other reason; he's subsequently played two matches in two years. 

That clubs as small as Wigan and Blackpool have been able to make a good fist of staying up speaks volumes of the uniform nature of the Premier League when both could so easily have simply faded into gauche unadventurous football. Both clubs have in past had one player on whom they relied: the Tangerines on Adam, and the Latics last year on Charles N'Zogbia. They are almost featured players - soloists in otherwise pedestrian orchestras.

This reluctance for the big clubs to spend on the little guy could come for a couple of reasons - because the bigger fish may reason that the player isn't sufficiently talented or because there are better players available for a similar cost. Perhaps, amidst the ghastly sums thrown about for unproven and sulky forwards, the big clubs are seeking some semblance of Return on Investment; by opting for tried performers - albeit talent coming from performances in vastly different systems.

Of course such theories are debunked easily and painfully by the ₤50 million Manchester United has offloaded already, a rumoured ₤20 million bid for Downing from Liverpool and Chelsea's concerted - and potentially unrequited - chase for Neymar.  While Financial Fair Play apparently isn't restricting the big clubs' overall spending, it is having a more subtle impact - it requires them to hold out for fiscal, as well as footballing Return on Investment. Ferguson's willingness to sell one-club lieutenants seems to indicate the greatest contribution they can now make to the Red Devils could be evening United's balance sheet.

As clubs enter the Premiership with a plan - and do good jobs of sticking to that blueprint - prepare to witness more of this phenomenon. All of QPR, Norwich City and Swansea City play an unsophisticated method - and the Canaries and Swans are exciting to watch. This could result in the same occurring next year: with Scott Sinclair, Wes Hoolahan or even James McCarthy taking the role of featured soloist.

Where to now for Blackpool?

The third in a three-part series detailing possible next steps for the relegated Premier League teams.

Blackpool's one-season jaunt in the Premiership, perhaps likely always to be record-setting, has come to a close. The Tangerines did set records, but not the ones that many predicted at the start of their top flight campaign. Blackpool boasted the smallest wage bill seen in the EPL for several years as well, capping their players' deals at a (comparatively meagre) ₤10,000 per week. They also scored a Premier League record number of goals by a relegated team and may have had one of the better records in league history of any relegated side against the division's elite.

As expected, Blackpool were eventually relegated. But they brought a spirit to the Premiership which is going to be missed and English fans are hoping that Swansea City can bring some of the same verve in their Premier League bow next year. It's arguable that while Blackpool expected this and prepared for life back in the Championship by banking much of their TV revenues and are likely to do so again with their parachute payments.

Let's take a look at how Blackpool can bounce back into the Premier League:

Blow the whole thing up and start again

Sheffield United went down this year after three years of trying to replace their Premiership squad on a bit-by-bit basis. They came out of EPL relegation in reasonable financial shape, given their West Ham settlement and reinvested part of those monies in an attempt to recapture EPL status. The gamble - like many of their signings - didn't pay off and League One now hosts Steel City derbies. With Blackpool unlikely to be able to retain their better players (Adam, Campbell, Gilks and Crainey), perhaps it's best to bid a fond farewell to the team that overachieved the last two years. Chalk them down to a beautiful, happy memory and move on.

This would allow the Seasiders to maintain their business model of not overpaying wages or transfer fees, which in turn would give manager Ian Holloway the chance to build again from the ground up around a combination of Matt Phillips, Elliot Grandin, Gary Taylor-Fletcher, perhaps Luke Varney and the everpresent Ian Evatt. This would again be a long process, but with responsible use of their parachute payments they could raise their wage ceiling by ₤3-5K from their current ₤10,000 ceiling and employ better quality players. This challenge is one of building the club from a small-scale Championship one to a middle-tier team capable of challenging year-in, year-out yet still with the finances to retain their best players.

In essence, this would keep to Karl Oyston's original plan of building a club, not a team.

but for instant gratification:

Sell Charlie Adam and replace him

Adam was crucial to everything Blackpool has done over the past two years. His scoring in the Championship (18 goals and 8 assists) allowed the Tangerines the chance to cream Cardiff in the Playoffs and he followed that dose with 12 EPL goals and 8 assists. Sir Alex Ferguson, Kenny Dalglish and Harry Redknapp are all admirers - even if only two of those three are actually interested in bringing him in. He'll go this Summer. The man 'Olly signed in January to replace him, Andy Reid, ex of Sunderland has already departed.

Chances are Adam will fetch somewhere between ₤5-10 million, significantly below the rumoured ₤14 million asking price in January. Reinvesting some of that money in a potential replacement - the first names that stream to mind are Joe Ledley, Kris Commons and Lewis McGugan, all potentially interested in a move but hard to get - in Adam's central role could go some way towards ensuring another Tangerine top-10 finish. Likely though, as DJ Campbell, Stephen Crainey and Matt Gilks will follow Adam out the door, it's possible Holloway decides to revamp the entire Blackpool squad and with it, alter the way they play their game.

Try to keep DJ Campbell

For so long, Dudley Campbell has been earmarked "Championship Only - Leave behind when promoted". After thirteen EPL goals, his publicist has tagged him available and he could move if the price is right. He - and his services - are needed in the Northwest, so Chairman Oyston should try and retain him. If they can't, the recently released Kevin Phillips could prove a bargain-basement type replacement for his fox-in-the-box role and Marlon King has been good for Coventry City since his mid-season arrival.

Reinforce the defense, however, whenever, with whatever. Use 4x2s if needed.

Blackpool leaked goals partly because of their up-and-down style of play, and partly because their defence simply wasn't up to Premiership standards. Ian Evatt, wholehearted trier that he is, just doesn't cut the mustard as a EPL centre-back. How about testing Burnley's resolve for Clark Carlisle? Perhaps ask a few pointed questions of promoted QPR's spare central defenders as well. As for full-backs, see what Cardiff are doing with the disposable Paul Quinn or how much Coventry City really wants to keep Richard Wood.

The task is harder for Blackpool than for West Ham or Birmingham simply because they don't have the same foundations for growth as their relegated comrades. On the bright side, however, they don't have any of the crippling debt which is likely to play a key role in the future fortunes of the other two clubs, meaning that they are in a prime position to build a lasting entity rather than embark on a short-term "Premiership or (literally) bust" campaign.

What next for Birmingham City?

As part two of a three-part series, we investigate what the best options are for the relegated clubs to bounce straight back into the Premiership.

Sort out the Finances.

This is a tough one to figure and has overarching ramifications for everything that follows. Apparently Carson Yeung has had to sell shares in order to finance the club's expenditures this year and his - and the entire club's - financial footing has been called into question. Without the megabucks Premiership TV revenue and the increased costs of a Europa League campaign which really doesn't offer much in prize money, the club's finances only get murkier. This, of course, is much easier said than done.

Keep Alex McLeish.

Say what you will about his ability to direct an offense, Alex McLeish can really coach defensively. He escaped the Championship at the first attempt after relegation in 2008 with a less capable group of players and, finances notwithstanding, he can be confident that this squad would be the Championship's most defensively sound. He's a reasonably popular media man and after masterminding the club's Carling Cup win, he deserves the chance to lead the Brum into Europe, where he has experience after his time at Rangers.

Remove the big-salaried players.

Rather than throw good money after bad, let them walk for free if it frees the wage budget. That means you, Nikola Zigic. Central midfield duo Barry Ferguson and Lee Bowyer are amongst the Blues' highest paid players, but come with considerable downsides - neither has the legs any more to even do a convincing impression of a box-to-box midfielder. Their best days are past: if at all possible, retire Ferguson to Scotland and send Bowyer packing (as has been promised).

but...

If possible, find ways to keep: Roger Johnson, Scott Dann and Ben Foster.

Granted, all three may want to leave for pastures Premiership. Try to sell them on a Europa League campaign which Birmingham may do quite well in. If they still value EPL status, sell the most profitable/highest salaried of Johnson or Dann and use Curtis Davies as his replacement. Foster, though a very good goalkeeper, These players, surrounded by above-average fullbacks like Stephen Carr, would form the cornerstone of a nigh-on impenetrable Championship - and possible Europa League - defence. Colin Doyle and Phillips contemporary Maik Taylor are good Championship level custodians, meaning Foster is perhaps more replaceable than the centre-backs.

Admittedly, given the expensive contracts doled out to these key players, this could again prove easier said than done.

Get healthy.

The Brummie nation lost several games to injury this year with James McFadden, Scott Dann, Cameron Jerome and Zigic among the worst hit. If that foursome played more often, it's likely they would have mustered either the goals or, at worst, the goal difference to remain in the Premiership. Trainers can make a difference, so keeping your best players healthy means for a much easier route back to the Premier League.

Adequately replace Sebastian Larsson.

Larsson is gone - G-A-W-N. After stalling for months on signing a new contract, being dangled unceremoniously to Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle United, the man who looks more Swedish than IKEA has made it plain he won't be back at St Andrews. He's been key for the Blues on the right of midfield and will want to stay in the Premiership.

Likely replacements from the second tier could include former loanee Scott Sinclair (though they'd have to pay to get him from Swansea, and only if they don't seal promotion), Reading's Jimmy Kebe (the same applies) or even Leeds' Robert Snodgrass. Given McLeish's preference for experience over youth, expect them to target older Premiership targets such as Ricardo Gardner, Brett Emerton or Bjorn Helge Riise.

Given much of their game is built around scoring from set pieces, acquiring someone with dead-ball magic is of the utmost priority.

Reinforce the strikers with top-level Championship talent.

It's no secret the Brummies have struggled in front of goal for three four the best part of 25 years now. Their goals scored has declined over their past three Premiership stints from 46 to 38 and finally this year, 37. Their intervening spell in the Championship (2008-09), they only mustered 54 goals, an average of 1.2. Cameron Jerome doesn't score, Kevin Phillips is ageing faster than Walter Donovan in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade and this year's big acquisition Nikola Zigic had the season from hell. They score less often than Urkel at a Supermodel convention.

The Championship has plenty of striking options where the Blues could take advantage. Billy Sharp, Kris Boyd and Scott McDonald all have the ability to tinkle the twines, if not necessarily add much to lead-up play. They're all worth an inquiry. If the price is right, Everton may be persuaded to part with Jermaine Beckford, James Vaughan or Yakubu.

Chase the Europa League

You only get the chance to play in Europe so often, so to simply disregard that opportunity in favour of an instant Premiership return seems foolhardy from afar. Understandably their priority should be regaining their top flight status, but it's also worth rewarding the fans with trips to Podgorica, Belgrade, Split or St Etienne. By chasing the Europa League, you also send a message to potential wantaways like Foster, Johnson, Dann and (crucially) Craig Gardner that the club has ambition, if not necessarily the finances to currently fuel it.

Image of Sebastian Larsson courtesy: www.bbc.co.uk/sport

Image of Alex McLeish courtesy: www.klikfc.com

Time for Wigan to accept their destiny: The Championship

The Premiership is richer for the passing game of Blackpool and Wigan Athletic. The same could be said about their respective locations, nestled in smaller markets in England's Northwest. The Latics and the Tangerines don't necessarily bring a lot of fans, but they certainly offer a different feel to big-city clubs like the clubs' possible replacement QPR. What they may subtract from the league in fan numbers, they replace in diversity.

While receiving the occasional pasting this year, both clubs sill chase survival after wins last week; Blackpool downed Bolton in their usual shootout, while the Latics sealed West Ham's fate with a comeback from two goals down. Both wins could be regarded as an fine examples of their opponents' profligacy or generosity, but it would be extremely ungenerous to suggest these successes were the result only of their opponents shortcomings.

Perhaps now, before potentially their last game in the EPL for some time, it's a good time to examine Wigan's Premiership heritage. They are the picture of a division-climbing club, having elevated themselves - courtesy Dave Whelan's JJB Sports in the early days - from the old Third Division to their current position as the Premiership's youngest (founded 1932) but 12th-longest tenured team. To this point, they've outlasted sixteen different teams and changed managers four times, moving from Jewell-ball through the disastrous Chris Hutchings era to Brucie-ball and now have (mostly) acclimatised to Martinez's passing style. They've been involved in perhaps the most dramatic final-day match in recent memory, their encounter with Sheffield United that saw former Blade David Unsworth slot the deciding penalty to retain their top-tier status.

Unfortunately, aside from a nice first season, that incredible spectacle may prove the lasting image and best moment in Wigan's EPL legacy. Over recent years, Dave Whelan has sold his JJB Sports business, Steve Bruce moved to manage Sunderland and took with him his extraordinary Central & South American scouting network (resulting in Latics like Hendry Thomas, Maynor Figuero, Hugo Rodallega and most notably, Wilson Palacios); finally, they've managed only average results from Roberto Martinez's flowing football. Crowds at the DW Stadium - the reading of which always proving something of a fraught exercise given Wigan's proximity to English Rugby country - have dropped an avaerage of 1200 this season to a little more than 16,800. This marks the third straight year of decline.

While this is likely to be an incredibly unpopular opinion with Latic fans, maybe it's time for Wigan to fade into the Championship. To the neutral observer, their Premiership stint has been generally one coloured in varying tones of beige and as their crowds opt for distractions anew, they are joined by the rest of the league; where Wigan are considered only when they appear on the fixture list. The diversity they bring to the league has become overshadowed by the disregard in which they are held by opposing fans. And with the emergence of Swansea City and Blackpool there are, for the first time in a few years, replacements on hand in style and locale.

It could be that the Championship is their level and the Latics have overachieved for years. This season's average attendance would rank mid-table in the Championship and would likely drop to match the playing level. Squad investment hasn't been there in recent years, with the relatively high-price purchases of Boselli and N'Zogbia overshadowed by the departures of Antonio Valencia (£16M) and Palacios (£ 12M). This is reflected somewhat in Whelan's heartwarming suggestions that Martinez's job is safe in sickness (relegation) or in health (survival). For two years, their first priority has not been to thrive in the top flight, but only to survive.

It's a simple fact of football that it's difficult to continue competing without adequate (and wise) investment: in some respects owners must throw good money after bad. Attempting to turn a profit by buying low and selling high is a laudable school of thought, but it's also a recipe for eventual (and potentially terminal) struggle as Middlesbrough discovered in 2009. The Latics have had a good run in the Premiership and may well survive to fight another year. But without substantial financial commitment, can they hope for any further development from their current squad? The answer, unfortunately, is at best a "maybe".

With all depending on what projects as a wonderful "Survival Sunday", we'll know sooner rather than later. Wigan may have drawn the best fixture, seeing them fighting against Stoke City, who's season effectively ended with last week's FA Cup final. Unlike their Nor'west Tangerine rivals, they don't face United. Unlike the Brummies, they aren't away to Spurs. They don't face another hungry relegation candidate as when Wolves and Blackburn meet. Their destiny remains their own - another year of overachievement and struggle, or perhaps this group is the one which accepts what appears to be their eventual fate: away matches at Coventry, Ipswich and Derby County.

Image of Roberto Martinez courtesy: www.guardian.co.uk

Image of Mauro Boselli courtesy: www.clicklancashire.co.uk

Balanced Sports on Soccerlens & The Roar

Balanced Sports has been published on Australian sports opinion website The Roar, with pieces by Matthew Wood on Bobby Davis and how the 2011 edition of the Geelong FC being "Crap Invincibles".

We've also been published on Soccerlens, detailing how West Ham can bounce straight back up from relegation to the Championship.

What does it take to stay up?

Over the past decade, thirty clubs have been promoted from the Championship to the Premiership. Some take with them solid financial footing, others acquire it with the TV rights riches that accompany such a promotion. Occasionally, clubs will try to set out all stops to defend their territory, fearing leaking goals is a surefire route back to the second tier. Others – like Owen Coyle, Tony Mowbray and Ian Holloway – prefer to play the attractive football which got them to the Big Dance in the first place.

Within the following table, there are several “usual suspects”, clubs which have see-sawed between Premiership and League Championship - Sunderland, Birmingham and particularly that very definition of the “yo-yo team”, West Bromwich Albion. Each club has had the chance to attain multiple promotions because they’ve acquired the annoying habit of suffering relegation almost immediately after each promotion.

Over the past decade, we’ve seen a disturbing trend towards clubs lasting only one or two years in the Premiership after promotion. Of course this has always been a problem for the Football League but recently this problem has become even more tricky as survival almost demands significant fiscal investment.

In the table below, recent years have provided a dearth of clubs able to survive in the big league long term: recently, Stoke City and Newcastle appear able to maintain their EPL status, but all of recent promoted teams West Brom, Wolves, Birmingham and Blackpool have had one strong season followed by a weak one (and relegation) or have failed to convince altogether.

Year	Teams Promoted	EPL Years	Points	Goals	Conceded	Result
2001-02	Fulham Blackburn Bolton	10* 10* 10*	44 46 40	36 55 44	44 51 62	Safe – 13 Safe – 10 Safe – 16
2002-03	Man City West Brom Birmingham	9* 1 4	51 26 48	47 29 41	51 65 49	Safe – 9 Drop – 19 Safe – 13
2003-04	Portsmouth Leicester Wolves	7 1 1	45 33 33	47 48 38	54 65 77	Safe – 13 Drop – 18 Drop – 20
2004-05	Norwich West Brom Crystal Palace	1 2 1	33 34 33	42 36 41	77 61 62	Drop – 19 Safe – 17 Drop – 18
2005-06	Sunderland Wigan Athl. West Ham	1 6* 6*	15 51 55	26 45 52	69 52 55	Drop – 20 Safe – 10 Safe – 9
2006-07	Reading Sheff. Utd Watford	2 1 1	55 38 28	52 32 29	47 55 59	Safe – 8 Drop – 18 Drop – 20
2007-08	Sunderland Birmingham Derby County	4* 1 1	39 35 11	36 46 20	59 62 89	Safe – 15 Drop – 19 Drop – 20
2008-09	West Brom Stoke City Hull City	1 3* 2	32 45 35	36 38 39	67 55 64	Drop – 20 Safe – 12 Safe – 17
2009-10	Wolves Birmingham Burnley	2* 2* 1	38 50 30	32 38 42	56 47 82	Safe – 15 Safe – 9 Drop - 18
2010-11	Newcastle West Brom Blackpool	1* 1* 1*	?	?	?	?

Perhaps the greatest key is not so much goals scored as goals conceded in the first year in the top tier. While wins may be the key to survival, it stands to reason that if clubs don’t concede, they don’t lose. If we average the number of first-year goals conceded by “long-term” survivors – those who lasted longer than two seasons – against those who went down within two years, we come up with the following:

First year stats ========	Total Conceded	Avg Conceded	Total Scored	Avg Scored
Survived >2 years	523	52.3	400	40
Relegated w/in 2 years	919	65	524	37.4

Clubs promoted in 2009 or 2010 have not been taken into account as four still battle relegation.

No club has allowed more than Bolton’s 62 goals in 2001-02 and survived for more than two years. Within the last five years that total has dropped – Sunderland conceded 59 in 2007-08 and remain in the Premiership to this day. The club who conceded the least and were still relegated within their first two years was Reading, who actually conceded the second-smallest total of first-season goals, but suffered a horrible case of “second season syndrome” after failing to adequately reinforce after a superb first year and were condemned to the Championship.

Of course life’s never as simple as statistics seem to make it. Often, yo-yo clubs simply aren’t good enough in any one aspect of the game to survive in the Premiership for any length of time (eg. Watford and Derby County).

It seems scoring goals isn’t as important as saving them. This shows that clubs who set out stall to defend – such as Stoke City – and then build upon that solidity are well-placed to survive. Clubs who favour footballing philosophies rather than pragmatism – clubs like Burnley and Blackpool – make for a happier, more watchable Premier League but seldom survive for long periods.

Image of Owen Coyle courtesy: telegraph.co.uk

Image of Tony Pulis courtesy: msn.foxsports.com