On the impact of Bobby Zamora, Eduardo Vargas and Richard Dunne at QPR

The thoroughly entertaining Iain Macintosh today compiled an article suggesting how well QPR have been performing recently. He credits much of this resurgence to Harry Redknapp's re-utilisation of two senior Rangers, Bobby Zamora and Richard Dunne.

While he is of course correct - especially in a poetic sense - a certain set of numbers emerging from my ever-expanding Player Plus/Minus dataset - which you can find by clicking here - might help quantify the effect Zamora and Dunne have both have on the Hoops.

In their eleven matches so far, the Rs have managed a goal difference of -11, or being outscored by one goal for every 90 minutes they take the field. This means any player who has managed each of the 990 minutes Rangers played so far this season will have an Individual Plus/Minus of -11. If you will, think of Individual Plus/Minus as a player's "personal" goal difference, or the amount of goals his team concedes while he's on the field, subtracted from those his team scores when he plays.

However, players rarely play every minute of every match of the Premier League season - in fact, in last year's abbreviated (four-team) sample, only Brad Guzan and Steven Caulker managed such a feat. This means to compare a player to his teammates and thereby examine his impact on his club, we must standardize the time-frame in which player and team both score and concede. That is, a team's Goal Difference divided by 38 results in the average amount they score/concede more than their opponents per match - so a Player's Plus/Minus rating per 90 minutes allows us to compare a team's performance when a certain player is deployed against when he is not.

But technical definitions aside, this set of information details how much a team scores or concedes over 90 minutes when a player is on the field. And Zamora's, particularly, numbers are spectacular. When he is on the field, QPR have a Goal Difference per game of 0, a full goal-per-game improved over when he doesn't take the park. 

This is the single best "Impact Factor" for a forward in the league, and is shared (with teammate Yun Suk-Young) for the third-best rating of any position. Only Jack Cork and Charles N'Zogbia are better throughout the entire league; another Ranger with a similarly lofty total is forward Eduardo Vargas, whose Impact rating of +0.803 is fifth-best.

Dunne, the other cartworkhorse whose virtues Macintosh espouses, rates as the seventeenth-most impactful defender in the league of the 95 that qualified (must have played at least 360 minutes).

Other interesting points to come out of the data set include Adnan Januzaj's lack of ability to influence proceedings for Manchester United (with the Reds 0.71 goals per 90 minutes worse off with him on the field), Jack Wilshere's awful start to the campaign (Arsenal are nearly 1.7 goals worse-off with him playing, the worst ratio in the EPL) and the absolute ostrich egg laid by France forward Emmanuel Riviere.

For more information - and some pretty, relatively-informative charts - on Player Plus/Minus, you can read the primer here, or search this site for "Plus/Minus".

Philosophising the most important game in world football

Naming the most important club game in club football is perhaps more of a poser than you’d think.

There are two major contenders for the title and both will occur today. The case for one challenger, the UEFA Champions League Final is based around the prestige (and money) that accompanies winning the title of best team in the best league in the most competitive confederation. The case for the other competitor, the English League Championship Playoff Final, revolves around the money (and prestige) that accompanies promotion to the world’s richest league.

The monies on offer are truly remarkable. For winning the most lucrative club competition on Earth, either Real or Atletico Madrid will pocket up to €50 million (or about 1/10^th of Atleti’s debt); while estimates vary on the worth of promotion to the English Premier League, recent hearsay puts the financial windfall for Derby County or Queens Park Rangers somewhere between £80-120 million – potentially three times as much as for the continent’s premier competition.

Players would certainly opt for the Champions League. Administrators, depending on the club, might flip-flop depending on the media forum in which they’re speaking. Fans – well, that’s a different story.

It goes without saying that the Champions League trophy carries just a little more kudos than does the award presented to (at best) the third-best club in England’s second division. As are sponsorship opportunities – for Atletico, at any rate. But, as clubs like Birmingham City, Leeds United and Norwich City have discovered recently, the revenues that the Premiership generates can be life-sustaining (or at least life-altering) – potentially more so than victory in the Champions League.

The counterargument is based purely on the reasons behind football as a concept – do you watch to see your team excel, or is a high, Icarian flight (c.f. Portsmouth) that ends in a near-fatal swan dive worth the fiscal risk not worth the risk? As a fan – or administrator – do you value survival and/or the opportunity to test yourself in an achievable competition, or the (pen)ultimate glory? You play to win the game – but at all costs?

The most important game in club football then depends very much on the audience and can be distilled down to one paraphrase: Survive, or advance?

QPR's Townsend, the £40 million man

When they loaned Andros Townsend to QPR in late January, Tottenham Hotspur sat fourth in the Premiership and could be well satisfied with their past two months.  After taking nineteen points from a possible thirty, they looked forward to a February facing strictly mid-table clubs.

With Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon offering a pincer attack in outstanding form – and Clint Dempsey, Lewis Holtby and Gylfi Sigurdsson available as well – the club presumably felt they could afford the luxury of allowing the youngster to grow by playing Premier League football regularly.

Townsend, 21, might actually cost Spurs more than anticipated.

He has become – without question – Rangers’ most important player; moreover, he has shown why Harry Redknapp (who, curiously, largely ignored him while at Spurs) took him on a rental across London.  Over the past month Townsend has been the dominant player in the Premiership, regularly beating opponents for pace and guile before swinging crosses into threatening positions. 

His seven games in hoops have borne out two scores, an assist and three Player of the Match nods in his past four matches.  The streak has left him, according to the reputable WhoScored.com, with a cumulative Player Rating for his QPR spell of a stratospheric 7.83.

Left backs both experienced and fleet-of-foot have been preyed upon: his Loftus Road locker boasts the heads of Javier Garrido, Rafael, Danny Rose, Matthew Lowton, John Arne Riise and most recently, Maynor Figueroa.

While hard to fathom after a gut-wrenching draw on the weekend, Townsend could prove the difference between the Hoops’ survival and relegation.  Should Rs stay up – and save owner Tony Fernandes  at least £25 million – it will be on Townsend’s back.

Although figures that size aren’t to be sniffed at, Townsend’s true value might be felt more by his parent club.  Since rising to third in the league in February, Spurs have struggled to cement entry into next year’s Champions League.  While a lack of strikers has been implicit to this shakiness, the team has struggled more since the loss of Lennon – and now Bale – to injury.

Neither Dempsey nor Sigurdsson are as inclined to create for others as for themselves, meaning forward thrusts at White Hart Lane – and, more crucially, away from home – have lacked the incision and penetration of the past six months.  This has only been compounded by the Bale-shaped void on the left wing.  The impetus that marked Spurs’ outstanding form of early 2013 is obvious for its absence.

Should Spurs falter further in the season’s waning weeks, they risk the riches of Europe’s premier competition – which is where missing Townsend really begins to hurt.  Although estimates vary, Champions League group-stage entrants can expect to receive windfalls of a minimum £16 million plus income from extra home games.  Clubs who progress to the Elimination stages could stand to collect up to another £25 million. 

Should Spurs’ absent forwards mean they finish out of UCL contention while Townsend leads Rangers to an unlikely continued existence in the top division, the net turnaround could be as much as £42 million.  While no-one was to know Townsend was capable of replicating his QPR form with Tottenham – the game of “What if” is appropriate only in MathNet – this swing puts him alongside a certain other West Londoner as the only Premiership players worth over £40 million.

Redknapp's fearless Queens Park Rangers

Despite a weekend win at Southampton, QPR have taken up residence Struggle street and there doesn’t seem to be an exit for miles. 

Though they’ve entered perhaps the easiest portion of their schedule all season, the Rs remain tied firmly to the bottom of the English Premier League table.   Escape is – at best – improbable.  Common wisdom suggests that a club needs 40 points to dodge relegation; achieving that total with no room for error would require the hoop’d men to win five and draw five of their final ten matches.

Since Tony Fernandes bought the club in August 2011 there has been a steady procession of highly-paid stars enter Loftus Road.  Precious few have performed consistently to the levels expected.  Rumours persist of a player culture ill-suited to toughing out Premiership survival.

While few outside Rangers’ sheds really know the truth behind the club’s recent trip to the Middle East, it seems reasonable to suggest that there’s probably some fire backing up the smoke.  Though denying reports of excessive sweaty partying, manager Harry Redknapp has often spoke of the startling lack of results Fernandes’ money seems to have purchased.

According to the textbooks, it would seem that Rangers’ players are fearless.  This may seem an odd choice of words, but it is deliberate: the result of having the fear centres excised isn’t aggression or thinking one is king of the world – a lack of fear doesn’t make us think we’re invulnerable.  Fear is an entirely different emotional concept – if it’s removed, the person in question exhibits an insensate, docile flatness; the simply accept destiny as created for them by others. 

According to the neuroscience textbooks, the lack of fear doesn’t create bombast but “… [a] calming affect, reduced aggression, personality changes, lack of inhibition and decreased drive”.  Sound familiar? 

Barring incident, the Hoops’ players are financially set for life.  Should Rangers be relegated, many of these players will be allowed either to leave “earn” their cash in the second division.  What do they have to fear?  A punctured ego?  Surely if that were the case, results might have been obtained sooner.  The last modicum of passion requisite  to extricating themselves might have left with Ryan Nelsen.

Money can allay many fears.  However in the case of QPR, it seems to have buried them almost entirely.

Three things: Handshakes are still important

Three things we noticed from the Premier League this weekend:

Handshakes are still important

Queens Park Rangers fronted up against Chelsea – and John Terry – in the West London derby. In the pre-match handshake line, Anton Ferdinand, who accused Terry of racially abusing him on the pitch last season, refused the proffered hands of the former England captain and left-back Ashley Cole. Next week, Northwestern rivals Liverpool and Manchester United face off in the first match since Luis Suarez refused to shake Patrice Evra's hand.

Handshakes still matter. Just ask Mark Hughes, who's gotten into rumbles about the tradition with practically everyone.

PFA President and handshake advocate Clarke Carlisle says handshakes are “a statement of intent to play the game in a certain manner befitting a professional”. In a perfect world, this would be so – however, we live in a football society where tribalism runs rampant and songs about tragic events have become so commonplace that managers and administrators rightly condemn their own fans for singing them. The game has often become more important than basic civility. The game's landscape is now so merciless that the handshake feels meaningless, a relic from past times.

Ideally, handshakes – gesture that perhaps began when two parties used their weapon-hand to greet an opponent, rather than kill him – would actually mean something – that the game isn't worth some costs. Hopefully, some footballers still think that way. However, in today's dog-eat-dog football culture, expecting players to make a honourable motions before a game is sadly a stretch. The stakes – and competitive desire – are just too great.

Berbatov's wages are (probably) worth it

Dimitar Berbatov made his first start for new club Fulham on Saturday and led the Cottagers to a win, scoring twice against the previously undefeated West Bromwich Albion. Despite sharing the league's Golden Boot with Carlos Tevez in 2010, the Bulgarian never appeared totally settled at Manchester United; this was partly because Sir Alex Ferguson rarely trusted him leading the line in big games and because his style is far more suited to a two-man front.

Fulham entered the season in a state of flux. Forwards Andy Johnson, Moussa Dembele and Clint Dempsey departed during the summer, replaced by Berbatov and Hugo Rodallega. The highly-salaried Berbatov has immediately shown his class and efficacy in the 4-4-2; paired with Rodallega – the archetypal runner lacking end product (the Colombian averages a Premier League goal every 5½ games and takes 100 shots to register six goals), Berbatov and his understated ability to hold the ball up looks crucial to a re-built West London side.

The "new" Dembele - last year's Costa Rican big buy, Bryan Ruiz - should have ample forward options to pass to - Berbatov's silky scoring and Rodallega's natural athleticism should keep the Cottagers firmly in mid-table.

Southampton need to work it out at the back

They can put goals on the board against the best teams in the country. They've got pretty fair trust fund backing them in the transfer market. They raided Scotland for the best player in that country. Rickie Lambert celebrates a goal better than anyone in creation.

Still, Southampton sit winless at the bottom of the Premier League table. Part of this can be ascribed to their dauting fixture list: they opened the season against Manchester City, Wigan Athletic, Manchester United, Arsenal. Despite boasting more exciting talent than their promoted brethren – and, arguably, more total talent – the Saints have made a habit of conceding, shopping six to Arsenal over the weekend. To make things worse, the Gunners only scored four as Nathan Clyne and the calamitous Jos Hooiveld both put the ball into their own net.

Despite looking better than average in midfield and attack, the Saints will be relegated if they don't fix their defence. The talent simply hasn't stacked up yet. Maybe it never will.

Ian Holloway's Blackpool – and Steve Kean's Blackburn – proved conclusively that in the lower reaches of the Premiership, attack must always be balanced by defence. It's not that the Saints defenders don't try, but appear lacking in class and even perhaps Premier League ability.

Because everyone else does it: Deadline Day winners and losers

Winners

Barcelona: Don't they always win? Even when selling good players, they come out on top.  They got money for players they were unlikely to use much in Bojan and Oriol Romeu, yet have the option of re-purchasing both if they succeed at their new clubs. With Roma's Giallorossi now hoping to model themselves on the Catalans, Bojan could be a big success. With Raul Meireles signing as well, Romeu won't get the same playing time at Chelsea but is a very different - and thus more valuable - player to the pass-and-move merchants Barca habitually produce.
 
Roma: After years of financial peril, the red half of the Eternal City suddenly has a revitalised squad sporting the likes of Simon Kjaer, FM2011 star Fernando Gago, the aforementioned Bojan and most interestingly, perennial next big thing Miralem Pjanic. While neither team from Milan will be sweating on a Roma title challenge, they should have the quality to take points off the best this year.

QPR: To nab Joey Barton and Shaun Wright-Phillips within a week of the transfer window closing means their relegation is no longer a nailed-on certainty but only quite likely. Barton is one of the top ten central midfielders in the country, while SWP is perhaps the most underrated overrated player in England. Anton Ferdinand could prove, like his dietary habits, feast or famine in central defence.

Fulham: Martin Jol poached Zdenek Grygera on a free from Juventus to help shore up a backline which has been effective in Europe but awful in the Premiership. They also managed to secure ₤10.6 million-worth of Costa Rica's Bryan Ruiz from FC Twente. Ruiz is so good he could cause carnage in front of goal - and in nightclubs - over the whole country.

Losers

Newcastle: Twelve months ago, Andy Carroll was the hottest property in England. Now, the ₤35 million is gathering lint under Mike Ashley's pillow. They needed a striker, nearly got Modibo Maiga in real trouble from Sochaux, were beaten to the punch on Ruiz and also didn't replace their departed second-best goalscorer, Kevin Nolan, or best creator, Barton. Pity an impressive collection of midfield talent with no-one Shola Ameobi to pass to.

Spurs: They got Scott Parker, and retained an unhappy Modric, but couldn't reinforce an ageing and leaky defence. Daniel Levy's stones for keeping a malcontent player (albeit one with five years of his contract to run) are admirable, as is manager Harry Redknapp's fantasy world where Emanuel Adebayor won't simultaneously explode and implode for a whole season. Lassana Diarra would have helped them.

Luka Modric: Wants to play Champions' League football and as a player deserves to do so. Perhaps though, he isn't as mentally strong as you'd like, after offering to withdraw his services from last weekend's match against Manchester City. This has lost him the respect of many Spurs fans, the chance of a natural resource-fuelled pay hike and football at the highest club level. It's safe to say his gamble - if it was one - backfired.

Nottingham Forest: A pre-season contender for the Championship title suddenly finds themselves needing to outperform simply to tread water in a strengthened division.  Not only did they fail to strengthen as needed at the deadline, but also nearly lost their manager, Steve McClaren.

Promoted teams' survival rates

(click photo to enlarge)

Key: Blue = Uninterrupted Premier League tenure; Red = In lower division; Grey = season yet to be played; Green = team in Premier League after relegation (and probable lineup changes).

The above chart maps the fortunes of all the teams promoted tot he English Premier League since 2001.  It shows the startling decrease over the past four years of promoted teams strengthening over time.

Full analysis coming Friday.  As this is as artistic as I get, thought it was worth sharing early.

English Premier League Season Preview, part 2

Click here for part one of our Premier League season preview.

Newcastle: New beginnings, or same old same old?

More than any other club, the fortunes of Newcastle United depend on their summer signings: Sylvain Marveaux, Yohan Cabaye, Demba Ba and this season's "like a new signing", Hatem Ben Arfa. The dressing room culture remains awful - as evidenced by Jose Enrique and Joey Barton's apocalyptic tweets - while one wonders if the Magpies have leaders enough to inspire focus among the troops. With Mike Ashley allegedly breaking promises left and right (the last of which were to extend Kevin Nolan's contract and to re-invest all of the ₤35 million they got for Andy Carroll), it seems another troubled season on Tyneside which could see them finish in the top half or sixteenth.

Norwich: Are they already preparing for life back in the Championship?

Paul Lambert and the key Wes Hoolahan

Paul Lambert has brought in several youngsters - Anthony Pilkington, Elliott Bennett and James Vaughan - for significant monies and is banking on their exuberance and pace for a successful season. Or a double-dip into the Championship a la West Brom and the promise of a stronger resultant outfit. While the head says the Canaries will mimic Blackpool's 2011 likeability, it also says they'll probably also do well early and later slide into relegation.

QPR: How important is Adel Taarabt?

How fake is Steven Harper's hair? (Look at the photos, not the crazy political stuff) How vital is Carey Price to a successful Canadiens season? Neil Warnock's Moroccan gem Taarabt has rammed home his importance to the Rs with every magical goal, every startling dribble move and each impressive assist. He scored or created 49.3% of QPR's goals last year and with only DJ Campbell, Kieron Dyer and Jay Bothroyd reinforcing the attackers, will need to reproduce his second-tier form on the big stage. If he can't do it - or is sold to PSG as rumoured - look at QPR like Warnock's 2006-07 brave-but-unsuccessful Sheffield United squad. Only with less talent.

Stoke City: Europa League or The Next Step?

Stoke City have made few signings despite their first European bow in a dog's age. Standing pat amidst a long-time lack of 15-goal strikers, perhaps the greatest question facing gaffer Tony Pulis is whether they can compete on both home and Continental fronts. With sound investment they could push for a 7-10 EPL finish and consequent Europa League qualification but to do so with a small squad could jeopardise their chances of making continental noise this year. Plus, there's no guarantee they could achieve such a high finish, so fans should encourage Tony to mimic Fulham and give the Europa League everything. With the scarcity of talent in the lower reaches of the division and a formidable home advantage, the Potters should avoid a relegation scrap.

Swansea: Will Scott Sinclair push for England honours?

courtesy: swanseacityafc.com

With recent England calls to his U-21 brethren Jordan Henderson, Andy Carroll, Jack Wilshere, Danny Welbeck and now Tom Cleverley, Scott Sinclair could be forgiven for feeling left out. Arguably more accomplished at club level than all but Wilshere, he's also at a much smaller team after failing to get regular chances at Chelsea. With pace to spare and clinical finishing skills, he could keep Stewart Downing, James Milner and Ashley Young looking over their shoulder on the left of England's midfield. It's unlikely, but if he plays well and moves to a bigger club or the Swans stay in the EPL, he may make his full Three Lions debut within a year or two. (Matt Jarvis has played for England for crying out loud! So have Francis Jeffers, Dave Nugent and Jay Bothroyd!)

Sunderland: Europe this season or next?

In a recent post, we argued Sunderland were pushing for Europe with the purchase of South Korean striker Ji Dong-Won, United veterans John O'Shea and Wes Brown, youngster Connor Wickham and last season's revelation Stephane Sessegnon. Craig Gardner could be the driving central force (who was supposed to be Darron Gibson) connecting an experienced backline with promising forwards. With this cast of characters, they should be aiming for a top-eight finish, perhaps replacing Fulham, Everton and Villa who finished above them last term. Bruce's squads are known for mid-season slumps, however, so this infusion of talent needs to stay "up" for the whole year.

Tottenham: Buying or selling?

With Chelsea - and, earlier, Man United - chasing wantaway midfielder Luka Modric and sums of ₤35 million bandied about, it's hard to see how Spurs' chairman Daniel Levy could resist. No matter how much 'Arry Redknapp may want him to. Modric is an excellent player who deserves Champions' League football, but also a classy guy who while wanting to leave won't kick up too much of a stink. If Spurs hold fast until January, they may be able to demand a premium (cf. Fernando Torres & Andy Carroll) if they look like missing the Champions' League next season.

West Brom: Is Shane Long worth ₤8 million?

courtesy: sportydesktops.com

Strikers jumping from Championship to Premiership for premium prices have a chequered record. Long's former Royal teammate Kevin Doyle has been a handful for Wolves but has hardly set the scoring charts alight. Dave Nugent? Pah. DJ Campbell did well for freewheeling Blackpool, but Michael Chopra failed for Sunderland. In this case, the Baggies urgently need a hitman and Long is young, quick and strong enough to do well at the Hawthorns. ₤8 million is a lot of money, but Roy Hodgson is working with a better lineup than during his first Fulham year and should have enough to avoid the relegation scrap. Long could be the player that moves WBA up a level to challenge for the top half, so is worth the cash.
(Long actually signed after publication for what's thought to be an initial 4.5 million with 3.5 million in add-ons).

Wigan: Will the beautiful football be worth it when you're in the Championship, Roberto Martinez?

Harsh, given Martinez is hamstrung by a small market, smaller attendances, a friendly-but-thrifty chairman and a spotty transfer record. For each of his seasons in Wigan, the Latics have been tipped for relegation but Martinez has kept them up playing attractive football. This year could be his undoing as Charles N'Zogbia has departed with only goalkeeper Ali Al-Habsi to replace him. Twentieth position beckons and with relegation the club will lose Hugo Rodallega, Al-Habsi, the precocious James McCarthy and ... wait - who else that matters do Wigan have? The club Dave Whelan and Paul Jewell raised through four divisions could begin a slip back down.

Wolves: What's the over/under on the number of smiles Mick McCarthy will crack this season?

4.5. Mick nearly cracked a smile in the eighty-ninth minute at Old Trafford last year but wisely opted against it as United scored the winner only moments later. This was the story of the season for Wolves as they fought the good fight only to lose gut-wrenchingly many times. With his side faltering at the last hurdle so often, he couldn't be blamed for not smiling. Reinforced by Roger Johnson and the permanent signing of Jamie O'Hara, they're another team which is hard to pick: anything that's not relegation should be considered a win; above fifteenth would mark progress.

The Ballpark Guide to Promoted teams' spending

When writing a piece for the Montreal Gazette concerning how much each promoted side had paid to assemble their roster, it was interesting to note the circumstances of each team. Queens Park Rangers, though ostensibly backed by the capacious pockets of Bernie Ecclestone and perhaps Lakshmi Mittal, have spent a miserly ₤1.25 million on striker D.J. Campbell while both Swansea City and Norwich City have repeatedly raided the Football League for standouts and bargains.

courtesy: thecomet.net

To praecy, both Norwich and Swansea Cities have spent record transfer fees this year on strikers from the Championship; the Swans captured Watford's Danny Graham, while the East Anglian avian cousins grabbed Welsh International Steve Morison from Millwall. Both clubs have also re-tooled with stars of the lower-tiers like Wayne Routledge, Leroy Lita, Anthony Pilkington and Elliott Bennett.

Though both are spending - both appear to have spent nearly nine million pounds - it seems both are following the WBA and Blackpool approach to the Premiership: survival would be nice, but not worth overextending the club's finances. With sound investment and a keen eye on the wage bill, the parachute payments should see a club in contention for promotion again within a year or two.

Prudence has been the order of the day in both far East and West. Not only do lower-leaguers cost less, but they also demand smaller wage packets as they seek a chance for Premier League success. Like the global economy, we could see these clubs prepared to "double-dip" to avoid mimicking the harrowing fortunes of Hull City or Portsmouth.

courtesy: goal.com

These sudden wodges of cash burning holes in the pockets of Paul Lambert and Brendan Rodgers aren't dissimilar to those spent by Newcastle United and West Bromwich Albion before last season. QPR's meagre investment is dwarfed even by Blackpool's last season, who spent less than four million pounds. Both have preferred to bring in free transfers. The difference between the two, however, is that the Rs spent mostly in 2007-08-09, bringing in the likes of Heidar Helguson, Hogan Ephraim, Alejandro Faurlin and Matthew Connolly.

Newcastle United are perhaps the most atypical promoted side in recent history. Rather than being a long-term Championship heavyweight such as WBA, Birmingham or (to a lesser extent) Wolves, they easily won the Championship after years of bringing in players who fit a Tyneside lust for power. Like perhaps West Ham United will be this term, Newcastle were a Premier League squad playing in the Championship.

The table below is designed to give ballpark figures of how much each club spent in their promotion year. Please note that these figures were assembled using a variety of websites such as SkySports, transfermarkt.co.uk, soccerbase.com and news reports. When transfer fees were not disclosed, the last known rumoured price was used (often preceding the actual deal by only hours). This means it's unlikely the figures are 100% accurate; however, they are as close to accurate as can be found online or without detailed knowledge of a club's inner workings. Loans are not included.

Key: K = thousand, M = million.  All figures in pounds.  "Accurate" to 5th August 2011.  Players not given a squad number (eg. Lee Cook, Rowan Vine & Martin Rowlands) not included.

	Championship Winner		Automatic Promotion		Playoffs Winner
Year	2010	2011	2010	2011	2010	2011
Team	Newcastle	QPR	West Brom	Norwich	Blackpool	Swansea
Years in Champ'ship	1	7	1	1	3	3
Plyrs in on Promotion:	5	4	7	5	10	4
Spent when Promoted	9.5M	1.25M	7.6M	8.6M	3.85M*	8.75M
Spent Year before	5.15M	4.05M	3.1M	3.025M	500K	1.75M
Squad Academy Graduates	5	4	Nil	3	1	3
Highest fee paid for current plyr:	10.3M (Coloccini)	3.5M (Faurlin)	3M (Brunt)	2.8M (Morison)	1.2M (Campbell)	3.5M (Graham)
Squad FTs:	5	9	6	5	12	9
GK Spend	0	750 000	3.25M	100 000	0	1.5M
DF Spend	19.35M	2.45M	11.1M	2.125M	1.675M	400K
MID Spend	29.2M	8.3M	6.55M	3.35 M	2.325M	3.985M
Fwd Spend	11.2M	3.4M	9.2M	8.4M	1.29M	6.7M
Total:	59.75M	14.9M	30.1M	13.98M	5.29M	12.185M
Avg p/plyr:	2.39M	596K	1.2M	559K	211.6K	487.4K

*Includes estimates of price paid for David Carney and Neal Eardley.

The Cost of Promotion to the Premiership

In the wake of some silly spending by Sven-Goran Eriksson and Leicester City as well as pre-season predictions of doom for the three English Premiership newcomers this season, it's worth taking the time to examine just how much it costs to contend in England's top division.

To do so, we can evaluate how much it costs to buy players needed to finish in the Championship's automatic promotion positions or win through via the Playoffs. Please note that these figures were assembled using a variety of websites and sources. They may be 100% accurate, but the likelihood is that they are as close to accurate as can be found online or without detailed knowledge of a club's inner workings.  When a transfer was marked as "undisclosed", we used the last rumoured price - which often preceded the actual deal by days or hours.  These aren't obviously meant to be definite guides but ballpark figures.

Player salaries - generally for all these teams quite manageable - and loan players have not been included.  D.J. Campbell, who has agreed a move to QPR that is yet to be confirmed, is.

Key: K = thousand, M = million, F = free transfer, Y = graduated club's youth academy, N = nominal fee. All figures in pounds.

Queens' Park Rangers

2010-11 Position: First in Championship, automatic promotion.

Academy Graduates: 4

Highest fee paid for current player: ₤3.5 million for midfielder Alejandro Faurlin (2009)

Goalkeepers: R. Cerny (F), P. Kenny (750K), E. Putnins (Y) - total ₤750K

Defenders: M. Connolly (1M), D. Gabbidon (F), K. Gorkss (250K), F. Hall (700K), C. Hill (F), B. Orr (500K), P. Ramage (F), D. Shittu (F) - total ₤2.45M

Midfielders: M. Doughty (Y), A. Bruno (Y), A. Buzsaky (500K), S. Derry (F), H. Ephraim (800K), A. Faurlin (3.5M), M. Harriman (Y), J. Mackie (500K), P. Vaagen Moen (F), T. Smith (1.5M), A. Taarabt (1.5) - total ₤8.3M

Forwards: J. Bothroyd (F), P. Agyemang (350K), H. Helguson (1M), R. Hulse (800K), A. Pellicori (F), D.J. Campbell (1.25M) - total ₤3.4M

Total: ₤14.9 million.

% of total spent this summer: 8.39%

Norwich City

2010-11 Position: Second in Championship, automatic promotion

Academy Graduates: 3

Highest fee paid for current player: ₤2.8 million for striker Steve Morison (2011)

Goalkeepers: J. Ruddy (100K), D. Rudd (Y)

Defenders: R. Martin (250K), A. Drury (500K), Z. Whitbread (350K?), L. Barnett (750K), E. Ward (F), M. Tierney (275K) - total ₤2.125M.

Midfielders: B. Johnson (F), A. Crofts (F), A. Surman (1.45M), W. Hoolahan (250K), D. Fox (F), E. Bennett (1.3M), K. Smith (Y), S. Lappin (100K), A. McNamee (250K), S. Hughes (F) - total ₤3.35M

Forwards: S. Morison (2.8M), J. Vaughan (2.5M), S. Jackson (600K), G. Holt (400K), A. Pilkington (2M), C. Martin (Y), A. Wilbraham (100K) - total ₤8.4M.

Total: ₤13.975 million.

% of total spent this summer: 61.54%

Swansea City

2010-11 Position: Third in Championship, defeated Nottm Forest & Reading in playoffs

Academy Graduates: 3

Highest fee paid for current player: ₤3.5 million for forward Danny Graham (2011)

Goalkeepers: Y. Makabu Ma Kalambay (F), D. Cornell (Y), J. Moreira (1.5M?) - total ₤1.5M

Defenders: A. Rangel (N), G. Monk (F), A. Tate (F), N. Taylor (F), A. Williams (400K)

Midfielders: M. Gower (F), K. Agustien (F), J. Allen (Y), D. Cotterill (600K), N. Dyer (400K), S. Sinclair (500K), A. Richards (Y), A. Orlandi (F), L. Britton (400K), F. Bodde (85K), W. Routledge (2M) - total ₤3.985M

Forwards: L. Moore (850K), S. Dobbie (F), D. Graham (3.5), C. Beattie (600K), L. Lita (1.75M) - total ₤6.7M

Total: ₤12.185M

% of total spent this summer: 67.71% 

QPR's Adel Taarabt.

Time for Wigan to accept their destiny: The Championship

The Premiership is richer for the passing game of Blackpool and Wigan Athletic. The same could be said about their respective locations, nestled in smaller markets in England's Northwest. The Latics and the Tangerines don't necessarily bring a lot of fans, but they certainly offer a different feel to big-city clubs like the clubs' possible replacement QPR. What they may subtract from the league in fan numbers, they replace in diversity.

While receiving the occasional pasting this year, both clubs sill chase survival after wins last week; Blackpool downed Bolton in their usual shootout, while the Latics sealed West Ham's fate with a comeback from two goals down. Both wins could be regarded as an fine examples of their opponents' profligacy or generosity, but it would be extremely ungenerous to suggest these successes were the result only of their opponents shortcomings.

Perhaps now, before potentially their last game in the EPL for some time, it's a good time to examine Wigan's Premiership heritage. They are the picture of a division-climbing club, having elevated themselves - courtesy Dave Whelan's JJB Sports in the early days - from the old Third Division to their current position as the Premiership's youngest (founded 1932) but 12th-longest tenured team. To this point, they've outlasted sixteen different teams and changed managers four times, moving from Jewell-ball through the disastrous Chris Hutchings era to Brucie-ball and now have (mostly) acclimatised to Martinez's passing style. They've been involved in perhaps the most dramatic final-day match in recent memory, their encounter with Sheffield United that saw former Blade David Unsworth slot the deciding penalty to retain their top-tier status.

Unfortunately, aside from a nice first season, that incredible spectacle may prove the lasting image and best moment in Wigan's EPL legacy. Over recent years, Dave Whelan has sold his JJB Sports business, Steve Bruce moved to manage Sunderland and took with him his extraordinary Central & South American scouting network (resulting in Latics like Hendry Thomas, Maynor Figuero, Hugo Rodallega and most notably, Wilson Palacios); finally, they've managed only average results from Roberto Martinez's flowing football. Crowds at the DW Stadium - the reading of which always proving something of a fraught exercise given Wigan's proximity to English Rugby country - have dropped an avaerage of 1200 this season to a little more than 16,800. This marks the third straight year of decline.

While this is likely to be an incredibly unpopular opinion with Latic fans, maybe it's time for Wigan to fade into the Championship. To the neutral observer, their Premiership stint has been generally one coloured in varying tones of beige and as their crowds opt for distractions anew, they are joined by the rest of the league; where Wigan are considered only when they appear on the fixture list. The diversity they bring to the league has become overshadowed by the disregard in which they are held by opposing fans. And with the emergence of Swansea City and Blackpool there are, for the first time in a few years, replacements on hand in style and locale.

It could be that the Championship is their level and the Latics have overachieved for years. This season's average attendance would rank mid-table in the Championship and would likely drop to match the playing level. Squad investment hasn't been there in recent years, with the relatively high-price purchases of Boselli and N'Zogbia overshadowed by the departures of Antonio Valencia (£16M) and Palacios (£ 12M). This is reflected somewhat in Whelan's heartwarming suggestions that Martinez's job is safe in sickness (relegation) or in health (survival). For two years, their first priority has not been to thrive in the top flight, but only to survive.

It's a simple fact of football that it's difficult to continue competing without adequate (and wise) investment: in some respects owners must throw good money after bad. Attempting to turn a profit by buying low and selling high is a laudable school of thought, but it's also a recipe for eventual (and potentially terminal) struggle as Middlesbrough discovered in 2009. The Latics have had a good run in the Premiership and may well survive to fight another year. But without substantial financial commitment, can they hope for any further development from their current squad? The answer, unfortunately, is at best a "maybe".

With all depending on what projects as a wonderful "Survival Sunday", we'll know sooner rather than later. Wigan may have drawn the best fixture, seeing them fighting against Stoke City, who's season effectively ended with last week's FA Cup final. Unlike their Nor'west Tangerine rivals, they don't face United. Unlike the Brummies, they aren't away to Spurs. They don't face another hungry relegation candidate as when Wolves and Blackburn meet. Their destiny remains their own - another year of overachievement and struggle, or perhaps this group is the one which accepts what appears to be their eventual fate: away matches at Coventry, Ipswich and Derby County.

Image of Roberto Martinez courtesy: www.guardian.co.uk

Image of Mauro Boselli courtesy: www.clicklancashire.co.uk

The best quotes from Ian Holloway and Gordon Strachan

I don't usually just put up a list of links, but here's why today's post consists of such: while researching the piece about Stoke City and Bolton Wanderers, I happened across a page of quotes for Ian Holloway and decided to match them up against quotes from Sir Alex Ferguson's favourite (irony alert) Scot, Gordon Strachan.

Which do you think is better?

The Best Quotes from Ian Holloway

or

The Best Quotes from Gordon Strachan

The Shape of Premierships to Come

Although not a foregone conclusion, Manchester United seem to be waddling away with the Premiership - needing to not only stumble, but actually fall over to drop top spot - so perhaps it's worth taking a look at the possible shape of the Premiership next year by examining England's second tier, the Championship.

One level removed from the big bucks there's a fantastic promotion race. Only a month ago, league-leading Queens Park Rangers seemed assured of automatic promotion but now their chances depend almost solely on an FA disciplinary hearing set for May 3rd. The Londoners, led by the abrasive Neil Warnock and bankrolled by Formula One's Bernie Ecclestone and Flavio Briatore, sat a dozen points clear on top behind a miserly defence and the silkiness of Moroccan midfielder Adel Taarabt. Now, with their lead cut to nine, they face investigation into their acquisition of Argentine midfielder Alejandro Faurlin as sources suggest he was not signed from a club side, but from a third party.

Since the Carlos Tevez saga of 2006-07 which saw Sheffield United (managed by Warnock) relegated, the FA instituted rules about the purchase of players whose rights aren't owned by club sides. If it's found the Rs have acted in breach of league regulations they could face fines or even be stripped of points. Since this is the first alleged breach since the Tevez affair, no-one knows what form any potential punishment may take. Probably in order to beef up speculation and anticipation, the Football League has scheduled the hearing for three days before the last round of matches.

The peloton chasing is full of the usual suspects and clubs seeking redemption. Norwich City occupy second position and are chasing successive promotions under Paul Lambert, the brightest of bright young things in English football management. They play an exciting style based around the talents of make-good striker Grant Holt, who has found a home after being rejected by several lower-league clubs. Playoff constants Cardiff City lie directly behind them one point adrift of the Canaries' automatic promotion slot. Their nemesis - whoever they play in the Promotion Playoffs - could well be rivals Swansea City, equal on points and goal difference and reaping the benefit of a Chelsea connection: club-record signing Scott Sinclair and loanee Fabio Borini both arrived at the club through manager Brendan Rogers' contacts. Reading sit a further three points back.

A very even season in the Premiership - one in which any of twelve clubs could go down and all three promoted sides could survive - is mirrored in the second division as all three sides promoted from League One last year could make the Promotion Playoffs: Leeds United have 64 points and Millwall 60 after arriving from the third tier with Norwich City. As the Premiership becomes more even thanks to squad limits and the Global Financial Crisis, the Championship seems to be benefiting as clubs are able sign better quality players at cutdown prices simply because they don't have a squad position at their original teams, which can only serve to benefit English football.

So late in the season and with no evidence on which to decide on any potential punishment for QPR, let's hedge our bets and suggest that should they not receive a significant points sanction, they and Norwich will qualify for automatic promotion, leaving a battle between Welsh arch-rivals for the final promotion spot. Should Rangers lose over six points in sanctions, however, all bets are off. Cardiff have experience in these situations - and thus a huge amount of baggage . Past results favour the in-form and exuberant clubs like Blackpool, Burnley, Watford and Hull, suggesting Swansea City may have the edge over their Celtic rivals.