Mourinho/AVB just the undercard

Originally published on the Montreal Gazette's Goal Posts blog on Saturday morning, 28th September.

Much of the press surrounding this weekend's matchup between Tottenham and Chelsea has been about the fractured friendship of the managers, Andre Villas-Boas and Jose Mourinho.

While it is true that Villas-Boas followed Mourinho around like a puppy heeling to his master, the comparisons are - as usual - overstated.  Mourinho's teams are usually best on the counter-attack, while Villas-Boas tends to favour a little more ball control. The Elder's squads are made up of uncompromising types who start out wanting to kill for their boss, and end up wanting just to kill him; his padawan is far milder and prefers fewer histrionics.

But the clubs' rivalry, based as much around Villas-Boas' ill-fated stint at Chelsea as their personal relationship, isn't the most important battle of wills on display at White Hart Lane today.

Far more integral to the Blues' season is the effect of Jose Mourinho's display of primal chest-puffing affects fallen superstar Juan Mata.  More precisely, Chelsea's season doesn't rest on one clash with Villas-Boas and his new men, but with how well Mata is able to integrate into this newest edition of Chelsea. 

Why the new/old boss left such gifted player sidelined comes down to one of only three reasons: either Mourinho felt Mata would not be benefit the side; his playing would unhelpful to the player himself (and, by extension, Chelsea) or - most headline-grabbingly - it's personal.

Whilie Mourinho has form for playing the man, it's almost inconceivable he'd choose the even-tempered Mata as a sitting target for this kind of vitriol, connections with Rafael Benitez, Iker Casillas and Sergio Ramos notwithstanding.  Thus, it's fair to assume that his reasoning is probably tactical.

This is concerning, as Mourinho has suggested that Mata's game didn't suit his plans.  Even to the most appreciative eye, Jose's clubs tend towards brutally effective football rather than aesthetics, meaning he envisions a future for Chelsea which doesn't exploit the strengths of a willo'-the-wisp like Mata.  While it's true that Mourinho has encouraged great performances from players like Cristiano Ronaldo and Diego Milito, employing his unusual brand of discipline to an utter professional like Mata seems reductive and somewhat counterproductive. Finding someone who can fault Juan Mata for the failed title challenges of 2011-12 and 2012-13 is like trying to find a introvert in the Big Brother house.

Minimalising Juan Mata's football might be the easiest way for Jose Mourinho to get results, but it also counts as a (admittedly petty) crime against the sport.  Managers are paid to get results; this particular manager chooses to do so in the simplest and most straightforward method possible.  With the force of personality Mourinho wields - and the utter professionalism displayed by his player - it appears likely that the requisite changes will be made and Mata will adapt to play Jose-ball.

Chelsea will be richer for it, but the Premiership may be immeasurably worse.

Andre Villas-Boas' Tottenham challenge

André Villas-Boas has a problem. His freshly remodelled Tottenham Hotspur squad isn't performing as they should, and Spurs enter this weekend's international break with two points from three matches.

 The team he now helms is very different from the last iteration of the White Hart Lane empire that Harry Redknapp and his SUV presided over. Gone are Modric, Corluka, Kranjcar and van der Vaart, while Louis Saha and Ryan Nelsen added stripes to the white and beat well-worn paths to Wearside and West London. Ledley King, their captain and best defender, limped towards the sunset – and a knee replacement.

 Forty percent of the Spurs squad is changed from last year, the second highest percentage in the league.

 For the second consecutive year, AVB's resume convinced the owner of a top-six EPL team that he was the man to trim a cumbersome top-heavy unit into a sustainable future force – without sacrificing the present. The first attempt ended at the hands of the Cobham senior pros, frustrated at an ill-suited gameplan and seemingly arbitrary decision-making. As I suggested last week, identity is important – and after initial experiments with a high-line, Chelsea were basically faceless until Villas-Boas' dismissal.

 Although it's only early, Villas-Boas' second attempt has not started well. He was denied his priority transfer, Joao Moutinho, but buttered up by signing Lyon goalkeeper Hugo Lloris – who is already reportedly unhappy. This is one example of the Spurs' faithful hushed disquiet - the most obvious feature of Villas-Boas' early reign isn't the results, but the equivocacy radiating from White Hart Lane.

 Football management can be distilled down to three roles: ego administration, reasoned decision-making and inspiring belief in subordinates – the three most public actions of a leader. These were further expanded by award-winning coach Ric Charlesworth, who in his autobiography “The Coach”, laid down five principles that every coach needed: knowledge, diligence, flexibility, consistency and honesty.

 Despite his tactical nous, disarming honesty and unquestioned devotion, André Villas-Boas is yet to prove himself fully as a leader. This is because he is yet to demonstrate flexibility and consistency in dealing with his players. In hindsight, his Chelsea reign can be thought of in two periods: one of inflexibility where he impelled ill-suited tactics on ill-tempered players, and another of inconsistency in which he employed frantic on-the-job problem solving.

 As regards Spurs, Villas-Boas can't afford a repeat of his Michael Dawson corollary. Dawson, amongst the League's better central defenders, was recently thought to be surplus to requirements and offered up for sale only days after captaining the club. Captaincy is a sign of trust from the coach, that a player should display all the attitudes of a coach who (usually) can't take the field. To then suddenly put a price on that captain's head – no matter what the need – is both affrontingly mercantile and painfully inconsistent.

 Indecision and inconsistency is easily picked up by players and a coach's credibility is eroded – slowly at first and then with increasing speed.  Villas-Boas' greatest challenge isn't getting the team to gel, but to prove himself once and for all a leader.

 Hopefully the confusion will settle now the transfer window has closed and squads have been submitted for the first half of the campaign. The new guy deserves, and will be given, time to really create something of value in North London. However, in order for his players to fall in behind him, André Villas-Boas needs the chance to prove himself – first to those players, and then the watching public.

The EPL run home "analyzed"

As the Premier League season rampages towards the Manchester derby which will (probably) decide the ultimate route and destination of this season's victory parade, we've got enough data from the season in progress to suggest how results for the rest of the season plays out.  The season is now thirty games old for each club, with the last eight enough to determine who raises the cup this season, which of the upstart clubs finishes with a well-earned chance at European football and which clubs will be facing derbies next season with the likes of MK Dons, Watford or Burnley.

So far, the information that may be the most telling as we enter the season's waning weeks is how each of the teams in the battle to play Champions League football next season got to be where they now are.
The table below includes the five teams currently slated to play continental football next season. It indicates what percentage of available points they have secured against opposition in different parts of the table. For example, Manchester City have played four times against teams currently in the relegation zone and won each encounter. Therefore, they have attained 100% of the points available from those four matches. Chelsea, however, have managed only two wins and a draw from their four encounters with current drop-zone residents – a more sickly 58%.

	Available points achieved by club (%):
Versus teams:	Man United	Man City	Arsenal	Tottenham	Chelsea
In relegation zone	100	100	78	87	58
Are relegation threatened	86	100	52	90	76
In table's bottom half	90	88	64	83	56
“Mid-table”	79	65	71	69	52
In table's top half	69	67	56	42	49
League Top 5	76	83	33	21	29
Total	81	78	64	61	56

For the purposes of this illustration, “Mid-table” includes all teams not currently occupying European slots or in danger of relegation. This means all teams from position 6 – 15 are included, no matter how turgid their play or how daunting their final fixtures appear).  Data correct to Thursday, March 29th.

We can automatically surmise that this season's Premier League has more of a Spanish – or Scottish – appearance to it. The lack competition at the top is galling - and even worse in graphical form (click to enlarge the graph).  While it's expected that clubs lose more points against higher opposition, for a league which champions itself as the most even in Europe, the strength of the Manchester clubs is starkly apparent.

Click to enlarge.

This term displays a major duopoly as the twinn'd Manchester clubs have been markedly more adept at taking points from other so-called “elite” opponents.

 This bodes well for City, in particular, as their April 30^th derby approaches – soon after a trip to Arsenal. Given their record, prior games against mid-table Norwich City and West Brom could provide more hurdlese than their matches against the Red Devils and Gunners. 


Once we depart Manchester, the numbers are just as revealing. Third and fourth positions are the subject of another local rivalry, as despite an ugly start to the season, Arsenal have earned their current tabular position, while Spurs appear a team of bullies. Redknapp's men have extracted only a win and two draws from eight encounters with Top 5 opponents (five points from twenty-four). For Chelsea, these numbers show definitively the poor fit between players and former manager Andre Villas-Boas: last year, Carlo Ancelotti was canned after accumulating more points (by percentage) against every category of opposition.

Be very proud, Spurs fans

Football fans get a bad rap. It’s often deserved.

I first understood the full scary nature of a football mob mentality when at my first La Liga match.  At the Barcelona derby in December 2003, I was amused to find Parakeet ultras lighting fires, fighting police in running battles and frisbee-ing seats dangerously close to players on the pitch – until they came into my section of Montjuïc Stadium.  As they closed on our section, amusement gave way quickly to apprehension.  It speaks volumes to Marc Overmars’ elusive ability not that he created several goals on the night, but that he also avoided the barrage of broken polymer.

There are also myriad more incidents of both pre-meditated and unconscious bigotry that make observers uncomfortable in their own skin – regardless of colour, gender or sexual preference.

But there are times which  make you rejoice at the spirit of your brothers – or even in that of your opponents.  I’m not talking about last minute goals, Champions League victories or even campaigns like Save Darlo, but of the horrible events of Saturday’s FA Cup match between Tottenham Hotspur and Bolton Wanderers.

Watching the match from the sofa was horrifying; to imagine being at the match itself doesn’t bear thinking about.  After seeing the young midfielder convulse once, Fox Soccer Channel wisely opted not to telecast further the resuscitation efforts, but the tears of those at the ground were evidence enough that Muamba was in grave trouble.

To then hear Spurs fans chant “Fabrice Muamba” again and again while the player was treated was one of the most touching things I’ve seen in football.  Many argue that football has lost part of its humanity as a result of its occupation by the twin armies of tribalism and capitalism.  No matter how unflinching the game has become, decency won out on this occasion in a resounding chorus.

We can only hope and pray Fabrice Muamba wins his battle also.

The chants, though strictly unnecessary, were an honest human response to a man in serious danger.  It was an entirely honourable action, performed by nearly all those at White Hart Lane who could still speak.  I don’t think I’ll remember another moment from this footballing year with more clarity, both for the sickening situation and for the cumulative response of Tottenham fans.

Since the advent of cutthroat professionalism and the arrival of the football-as-a-business era, the term “honourable” hasn’t been used that often.  It is these moments, though, and not just glamour goals, saves or results that we fans remember.  Players’ actions leave a mark on us, often moreso than the result of their endeavours.  To take a high-profile example, I can’t remember who won the race – at the peak of their rivalry – in which John Landy helped up Ron Clarke after he had fallen; the image is seminal to what it means to be Australian.  I’m sure everyone can recollect similar instances without pausing for thought.

On the whole, responses since Muamba's collapse have been overwhelmingly positive from players, administrators and fans alike.  But, for their initial, vocal, offer of support, Spurs’ fans chants stood out as entirely honourable, a gleaming – albeit small – positive from an awful event.

Redknapp's logical successor

Let's just assume, despite apparent misgivings, that Harry Redknapp will manage England at this year's European Championships. The common-sense logic is that England will likely qualify for the second round and then be eliminated. Such things were written in stone, long ago.

Were he to go, however, who would replace him at Spurs? Noises have been made about summoning Jose Mourinho from Real Madrid to helm next season's increasingly-improbable Champions' League push, while other names thrown forth into the vacuum include Fabio Capello, Rafael Benitez and David Moyes.

Interestingly, the Spurs personnel actually quite suit a manager like Andre Villas-Boas, but it's unlikely AVB would get such a high-profile position immediately after his Chelsea flame-out. This should elicit nervous Liverpudlian glances towards Fleet Street's rumour-mongers.

If Jose's not coming – and he's not, there should be little doubt that David Moyes is the best fit for the Spurs job.

Harking back a moment to Villas-Boas, there are myriad reasons for his dismissal but the greatest was an initial refusal to adapt his tactics to his players. This doesn't apply for Moyes, who for the vast majority of his decade-long tenure at Goodison Park has employed with success either a flat 4-4-2 or a 4-4-1-1. He would have to make little or no adaptation, but simply deploy a superior playing group. To prove his efficacy, he need look no further than a player that Spurs now own – South African Steven Pienaar.

His maintenance of Everton as one of the league's more efficient defensive teams speaks volumes, as does his ability to bring together a cohesive dressing room and his noted ability to work well on a budget. Spurs could certainly benefit from all four of these selling points – in fact, combining Moyes' defensive schemes with the offensive talent on hand at White Hart Lane is an exciting prospect.

This remains pure speculation, and it's no sure thing that Moyes would agree to a contract at Spurs. However, it remains the most tantalising option should Redknapp be seconded into national service.

Redknapp's England

This week came the startling revelation that Pearce's England looks a lot like Capello's England. Capello's England looked remarkably like his predecessor's, and his two forebears. As England produces elite national teams about once per generation, it is hardly surprising that althought the managers differ, squads appear habitually mundane.

 England have tried many of the tried-and-true coaching approaches, with each, like Doctors Who, swinging wildly between each appointment. It's likely that with the almost inexorable Redknapp appointment, the FA will adopt a moderate approach which satisfies fans, players and media alike.

 So even though his ascension is by no means a fait d'accompli, it is worth asking what Redknapp's England would look like. With his last two managerial positions, Redknapp has favoured a regulation 4-4-2 formation based around the strengths of his current squad. As has been commented upon regularly, his sides don't generally focus on tactical mystery but pre-internet age football.

 When he took Portsmouth to the FA Cup in 2008 his sides strengths included a powerful central midfield with one designated creator (in this case Niko Kranjcar) and uncompromising centre-backs. His Spurs have a similar look: immutable central defenders, full-backs preferring advance to retreat and the same midfield headliner but adds the extra confunding factor of barrels of wing pace. At both post codes, the ginger cockney one has relied upon contributions from target men with smaller, pacy offsiders.

 To take this formula and apply it to the 25 players each England manager feels honour-bound to select is revealing. Several players fit the Redknapp formula – most notably Spurs Parker, Lennon and King – and therefore thrust themselves almost automatically into selection. When those players are combined with England's best players like Joe Hart, Ashley Cole and Wayne Rooney, suddenly there are only a few positions left.

Goalkeeper: Hart
Defenders: Walker, King, Jagielka, Cole.
Midfielders: Lennon, Parker, Gerrard, A. Johnson
Forwards: Welbeck, Rooney
Subs: Richards, Dawson, Sturridge, Baines, Green, Carrick, Young.

 At right-back, I've opted for Kyle Walker over Glen Johnson although Redknapp has brought out the best in both. This is mostly because Walker's form over the past year has been superior to that of the Liverpool man. Rooney and Man U teammate Welbeck are simply the best fit as a strike partnership as there really isn't an English target man of quality (unless you count the corpse of Peter Crouch). QPR new-boy Bobby Zamora could fill this spot, but would need more form at Rangers to justify selection, while should Andy Carroll regain a modicum of form he could have 'Arry slavering.

 The key playmaker should be the man with the lego-hair, Steven Gerrard. The only other player qualified for such a key role would be Rooney, and doing such would mean the new boss wouldn't play his best player where he operates best. Despite being on the downside of his distinguished career, Gerrard places passes better than any English midfielder not ginger and playing for another team in red; he also should conceivably dovetail nicely with Parker before sharing the centre of the park with Jack Wilshere upon the Arsenal teen's return to full health.

 The biggest question marks lie at centre-back and on the left of midfield. Ledley King has been a staunch performer, but his knees make my grandma's look stable and healthy. John Terry's selection should be unconscionable for reasons of team harmony, but if anyone is able to solidify dressing-room relationships, then it's Redknapp. It's possible (probable?) Terry is ignored completely and the management decision comes down to the relative stolidity of Phil Jagielka, Chris Smalling and Michael Dawson.

 On the midfield's left, Redknapp could go any of half a dozen directions with each presenting interesting and frightfully scary alternatives. The first would be to employ Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain against the protests of Arsene Wenger and Stewart Downing. “The Ox” would provide the type of endeavour, spirit and speed that Redknapp appreciates, but still occasionally likes to watch Postman Pat in the afternoon before heading down for a nap.

 His other four options include incumbent James Milner, who's as pacy as a pensioner pushing a recliner uphill, Ashley Young, Stewart Downing and Adam Johnson. Johnson has perhaps the most speed of the quartet, and while doesn't meet Downing's sabermetric proficiency with his crosses, he is an impact player of whom Redknapp should think he can obtain more production. Given Redknapp's real world (and occasionally imagined) miracle-working abilities, it's reasonable to include him in this theoretical team.

Harry Redknapp - checking (most of) the boxes

The odds are that Harry Redknapp will replace Fabio Capello. The Spurs manager has been heavily backed for the position by everyone from Wayne Rooney to former FA Chairman Lord Triesman. That Stuart Pearce has received the FA's blessing to take charge for England's February 29^th match with Holland indicates that any potential decisions won't be made swiftly. Spurs fans can cling to the knowledge that 'Arry will pace the White Hart Lane sidelines for at least three more weeks.

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Redknapp is of course favoured for the job for many reasons, not least of which is because he's English. It's disturbing to see a football populace focused so firmly on nationality rather than talent; but with two of the country's past three gaffers being expensive “ringers”, much of the masses hope for a local boss to make good.

And well he might: Redknapp as a manager checks many of the boxes you'd want from a leader. He keeps thing simple (a must), doesn't delve too far into tactics or coaching, isn't a disciplinarian and isn't in John Terry's camp. He is a simple “player's coach” – but rather than being an enabler like Schteve McClaren, he is an empowerer.

He's even won things, too. He brought an FA Cup to Portsmouth, notwithstanding the trophy was part of a spending spree which nearly caused the death of the club. When nationalism, coaching and player relationships are considered, Harry Redknapp probably checks more boxes than any other potential candidate.

But checking boxes isn't enough.

Remember back to the schoolyard riddle that asks who you would prefer to run your country. The chain-smoking, possibly-alcoholic, philandering astrology buff; the manic depressive toff with a drink problem; or the vegetarian, teetotal war veteran? I'm sure you've heard this riddle – for the seemingly straight-laced decorated veteran is, in fact, Adolf Hitler. The former two are President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Winston Churchill.

If you apply the same logic to a real-world situation, then suddenly the picture becomes even clearer. Now, companies do much of their pre-research and vetting for employee applications online in a multiple-choice questionnaire. This is in order to minimise the time spent by Human Resources on screening applicants.

If you've ever filled in one of these surveys, you'll know what I'm getting at: they are able to completely misrepresent an applicant as an individual by breaking down a person's entire existence into yes-or-no type answers. And yes-or-no answers are rarely – if ever – able to describe a situation fully and truthfully. Although no-one expects the FA only to look at Harry Redknapp's resume, his achievements are of the type which lend themselves to yes-or-no answers. The CV of, for example, David Moyes does not – and there are those who suspect he would make an excellent England manager.

Sport is rife with examples of people who checked all the right boxes, yet failed miserably as a coach. In 1993, the Dallas Mavericks employed rookie coach Quinn Buckner. He had all the right attributes to become a wonderfully successful coach: driven, very smart, hard-working, knowledgeable, measured, came from a background of team and individual success, disciplined … and the Mavs won 13 games (of 82).

His mentor, the firebrand Bobby Knight, is considered one of the greatest coaches in basketball history. As a player at Ohio State he was a scrub on a middling team. As a coach, his record was even more surprising: he was arrested while leading a team to Puerto Rico; left Charles Barkley off the 1984 Olympic team (for Jeff Turner); was quoted as saying “if rape is inevitable, relax and enjoy it”; was nearly fired for allegedly assaulting a student and eventually dismissed for “a pattern of hostile behaviour”.

There's almost no question Quinn Buckner was as qualified to succeed as Bobby Knight.  But but didn't.

Of course, coming from a different sport, this is a flawed example. But the premise remains the same – that the candidate that checks the most boxes isn't necessarily the best man for the job. Just ask Liverpool fans what they think of Roy Hodgson, Inter their opinion of Gian Piero Gasperini or West Ham of their time spent with Avram Grant.

There was every reason for optimism on Fabio Capello's appointment to boss England; or at least there was until England broke him. There are just as many suspicions that Harry Redknapp would be an outstanding England manager, but it's possible he's not the best man for the job.

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Manchester teams' strength is in depth

In the Premier League's early goings-on this season, the bullies have come from the Northwest. Manchester, in particular, as red and blue halves strive to outdo each other's results in a bizarre, entertaining game of one-upmanship.

 City defeated Bolton 3-2, so Manchester United walloped the same Trotters side 5-0. United started unconvincingly against Spurs before three second half goals earned them victory; the Citizens rode Samir Nasri, Kun Aguero and Edin Dzeko to a 5-1 win. The Manchester sides have so far shown the compassion of schoolyard thugs.

 The Premiership has known remorseless sides before: Mourinho's Chelsea springs instantly to mind, while the Invincibles of 2004 had a certain dangerous look behind their eyes. Opposing players just didn't cross the likes of Henry, Vieira or Ray Parlour - not necessarily for fear of any brutal retribution, but the strength of their self-belief (and in their teammates) was enough to distill from them a performance that could only be to your detriment. With the form of these two clubs as it is, the two Mancunian clubs now exhibit similar belief.

 That belief comes down to each club's knowledge that they have strength in depth. Early pace-setters often fizzle, however: derailed by inopportune and unfortunate incidents. But these two clubs are deeper than either the Chelsea team of last season or the 2007-08 edition of Arsenal.

 How so? Oustanding depth comes not from the talent level of your starting eleven, but the surety and game-changing ability of those players who aren't regularly getting a game, those who occupy positions 16-20 in the squad - with players 21-25 usually reserved for academy graduates and youth team players.

 Last season when things started to go pear-shaped for Chelsea, Carlo Ancelotti could call on (injuries excepting): Yossi Benayoun, Jose Boswinga, Yuri Zhirkov, Paulo Ferreira and Hilario. After the Wrath of Taylor, Arsenal's "depth players" included youngsters Bendtner, Song, Denilson, Justin Hoyte and the injured Tomas Rosicky. Backup talent, to be sure, but no great game-changers (with the possible exception of healthy Benayoun and Rosicky).

 Though subject to near-interminable debate, United players 16-20 are probably Jones, Smalling, Fabio, Welbeck and Park. For City, they could conceivably be Adam Johnson, Savic, Kolo Toure, Hargreaves and Pantilimon. Every single one of those players is a member of their country's first team setup (if awaiting debut); United probably boast more game-turners. The money spent to bring in those players is also significant - a factor which of course must be taken into account.

 The strongest "next" club is probably Chelsea and unsurprisingly, they're the team picked as the only possible one to upset a Mancunian duopoly. Their "next five" are likely Oriol Romeu, Josh McEachran, Salomon Kalou, Ferreira and Romelu Lukaku: wonderful promise for future years, but perhaps not enough proven presence to allow outstanding depth this year. However, only weeks ago similar things were said about Smalling, Jones and Welbeck.

The season is long and we have only just begun. Already, the Manchester clubs look imposing.

Because everyone else does it: Deadline Day winners and losers

Winners

Barcelona: Don't they always win? Even when selling good players, they come out on top.  They got money for players they were unlikely to use much in Bojan and Oriol Romeu, yet have the option of re-purchasing both if they succeed at their new clubs. With Roma's Giallorossi now hoping to model themselves on the Catalans, Bojan could be a big success. With Raul Meireles signing as well, Romeu won't get the same playing time at Chelsea but is a very different - and thus more valuable - player to the pass-and-move merchants Barca habitually produce.
 
Roma: After years of financial peril, the red half of the Eternal City suddenly has a revitalised squad sporting the likes of Simon Kjaer, FM2011 star Fernando Gago, the aforementioned Bojan and most interestingly, perennial next big thing Miralem Pjanic. While neither team from Milan will be sweating on a Roma title challenge, they should have the quality to take points off the best this year.

QPR: To nab Joey Barton and Shaun Wright-Phillips within a week of the transfer window closing means their relegation is no longer a nailed-on certainty but only quite likely. Barton is one of the top ten central midfielders in the country, while SWP is perhaps the most underrated overrated player in England. Anton Ferdinand could prove, like his dietary habits, feast or famine in central defence.

Fulham: Martin Jol poached Zdenek Grygera on a free from Juventus to help shore up a backline which has been effective in Europe but awful in the Premiership. They also managed to secure ₤10.6 million-worth of Costa Rica's Bryan Ruiz from FC Twente. Ruiz is so good he could cause carnage in front of goal - and in nightclubs - over the whole country.

Losers

Newcastle: Twelve months ago, Andy Carroll was the hottest property in England. Now, the ₤35 million is gathering lint under Mike Ashley's pillow. They needed a striker, nearly got Modibo Maiga in real trouble from Sochaux, were beaten to the punch on Ruiz and also didn't replace their departed second-best goalscorer, Kevin Nolan, or best creator, Barton. Pity an impressive collection of midfield talent with no-one Shola Ameobi to pass to.

Spurs: They got Scott Parker, and retained an unhappy Modric, but couldn't reinforce an ageing and leaky defence. Daniel Levy's stones for keeping a malcontent player (albeit one with five years of his contract to run) are admirable, as is manager Harry Redknapp's fantasy world where Emanuel Adebayor won't simultaneously explode and implode for a whole season. Lassana Diarra would have helped them.

Luka Modric: Wants to play Champions' League football and as a player deserves to do so. Perhaps though, he isn't as mentally strong as you'd like, after offering to withdraw his services from last weekend's match against Manchester City. This has lost him the respect of many Spurs fans, the chance of a natural resource-fuelled pay hike and football at the highest club level. It's safe to say his gamble - if it was one - backfired.

Nottingham Forest: A pre-season contender for the Championship title suddenly finds themselves needing to outperform simply to tread water in a strengthened division.  Not only did they fail to strengthen as needed at the deadline, but also nearly lost their manager, Steve McClaren.

Man United's depth: you get what you pay for

A team that only last season was a twinkling in Sir Alex Ferguson's eye dismantled former rivals Arsenal at Old Trafford on Sunday. Both sides fielded below-strength sides as the Gunners reeled after losing Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas to continental rivals while United suffered from injuries to world class defenders Rio Ferdinand, Nemanja Vidic and Rafael.

This brings us to ask - where would Manchester United's Second XI finish over a full Premier League season? Obviously putting injuries aside, their second-best eleven players (four of them played on Sunday) make an imposing lineup:

Manchester United: Lindegaard; Rafael, Evans, Jones, Smalling; Park, Fletcher, Carrick, Valencia; Berbatov, Welbeck. Rough estimate of combined cost: ₤105 million.

We can safely expect such a lineup - and such remarkable spending, vastly inflated by fees for former first-choice players Berbatov, Carrick and future first-teamer Phil Jones - to finish higher than mid-table, based upon the strength of last season's fourteenth-best team:

Bolton Wanderers: Jaaskelainen; Steinsson, Cahill, Knight, Robinson; Lee, Holden, Muamba, Petrov; Davies, Klasnic. Rough estimate of combined cost: ₤20.7 million.

Similarly, they would probably defeat a team from last year's top-half, Fulham FC, who finished eighth:

Fulham: Schwarzer; Baird, Hangeland, Hughes, Riise; Kasami, Murphy, Sidwell, Duff; Dembele, Dempsey. Rough estimate of combined cost: ₤24 million.

When matched against Tottenham Hotspur, who finished fifth, they won out in a 3-0 triumph at home in the second week of the season - although Spurs didn't field captain Ledley King.

Tottenham Hotspur: Friedel, Corluka, King, Dawson, Assou-Ekotto; Bale, Modric, Kranjcar, Lennon; Defoe, Crouch. Rough estimate of combined cost: ₤72.5 million.

Of course such a team could certainly struggle against the bigger sides and lacks a certain brutality boasted by Vidic and Wayne Rooney. But given the sums of money spent on compiling such enviable depth, it's only expected that they should finish above all but teams with a similar ability to spend.

Teams taken from last round of EPL fixtures and amended to include "obvious" first-teamers if they were not selected.

Note: While Spurs have certainly spent on their lineup, the total is lowered considerably by the decreased fees paid for Aaron Lennon and Niko Kranjcar, who were obtained for somewhere in the region of a combined ₤4.5 million from clubs in severe financial strife. Due to performance and circumstance, both players would now retail for far higher.

Was Luka Modric right to ask not to play?

The Guardian reported after Sunday's match against Manchester City that Tottenham midfielder Luka Modric asked manager Harry Redknapp not to play. Allegedly, the Croatian said his "head was not right", echoing Redknapp's own words on the player from only a week before.

 That Spurs were defeated 5-1 at home (by a rampant City) is relevant, no matter how much players like Benoit Assou-Ekotto insist that Modric's desire for a move to crosstown neighbours Chelsea has not distracted them. Captain Ledley King has stated that such speculation doesn't help steady a ship destabilised by a summer's pursuit by Russian money and Champions' League football.

 Looking at his request in the most generous light, he asked his manager to omit him knowing his head was turned and he wouldn't be able to give his full efforts. Looking through the selfish window, he left his teammates out to dry - as arguably Spurs' best player and chief midfield creator.

 Which position was correct is still up for debate. Whether this influences any potential move also remains to be seen. Knowing the wiles of agents, there is likely a connection between the request and any impending transfer.

 Sochaux forward Modibo Maiga has also recently refused to play for his team as he angled for a move to Newcastle United. While a very different situation, he too must ask if he will enjoy his teammates confidence should he play for Les Lionceaux again.  Once such a drastic move is made, questions of repetition are often asked much, much later should similar circumstances present again.  Form is a powerful indicator.

courtesy: guardian.co.uk

 Certainly a player should have the right to withdraw his services from a game should he feel not psychologically prepared to play. In such a situation though, he should prepare to forfeit a percentage of his wages - as this unpreparedness is partly as a result of a professional desire to move employers. Many of us don't wish to continue working for our current employers, yet have to front up to work every day, lest we are punished or replaced.

 However, it is his responsibility to be prepared to play - mentally as well as physically. Potential replacement Scott Parker chose to play last year only days after the death of his father. Teammate Jack Collison did so a year prior under the same circumstances. If ever a player is to be unable to give his best, it is surely in circumstances such as these. Whatever happens between now and deadline day, Luka Modric will be at a successful club, a multi-millionaire and key player for his country. While his move will disadvantage him somewhat, it won't in any way kill his career - especially as there are future transfer windows.

 It's also a situation that could well have been avoided. This is a multifactorial situation in which Redknapp, whose comments can't really have helped his player; Daniel Levy, who has refused to sell the jewel in his transfer crown; and a Chelsea administration who have made a series of bids for the player. Levy has once before held on to a wantaway star, when he sold Dimitar Berbatov to United for a little over 30 million pounds - however, the constant speculation cost the team a positive start to the season and Juande Ramos his job.

 Due to the complex nature of this problem, it is impossible to judge whether Modric was correct in his assertion that his head wasn't in the right place. Should it prove a posture in a transfer negotiation, his words will reflect poorly on him. If he really cannot get his mental framework in sufficient order to avoid aggravation in this situation, it's probably correct to evaluate his mental toughness in a new light.

 Whether his teammates are willing to endow him with their full trust is very much down to the individual. It's likely all have some sympathy for his stance and his headspace. They are all aware now - if they weren't before - that it is unlikely they share the same goals.

As a player, Luka Modric deserves Champions' League football, but like an NBA title, World Cup winners' medal or just a domestic title, such honours don't complete players. It's time for us, as a football public, to stop using trophies or awards won as the best method of evaluating players. Trophies are great. But so are teammates and good club, and only (at best) the players from twelve clubs will actually really compete for a title this season across the four major European leagues.

 Perhaps only his performances - for Chelsea or Spurs - in the next few weeks will finally reveal how distracted he has been. Either way, by keeping him past the deadline, Spurs are gambling - on a return-to-form, sell-on price not falling and his continued happiness.

English Premier League Season Preview, part 2

Click here for part one of our Premier League season preview.

Newcastle: New beginnings, or same old same old?

More than any other club, the fortunes of Newcastle United depend on their summer signings: Sylvain Marveaux, Yohan Cabaye, Demba Ba and this season's "like a new signing", Hatem Ben Arfa. The dressing room culture remains awful - as evidenced by Jose Enrique and Joey Barton's apocalyptic tweets - while one wonders if the Magpies have leaders enough to inspire focus among the troops. With Mike Ashley allegedly breaking promises left and right (the last of which were to extend Kevin Nolan's contract and to re-invest all of the ₤35 million they got for Andy Carroll), it seems another troubled season on Tyneside which could see them finish in the top half or sixteenth.

Norwich: Are they already preparing for life back in the Championship?

Paul Lambert and the key Wes Hoolahan

Paul Lambert has brought in several youngsters - Anthony Pilkington, Elliott Bennett and James Vaughan - for significant monies and is banking on their exuberance and pace for a successful season. Or a double-dip into the Championship a la West Brom and the promise of a stronger resultant outfit. While the head says the Canaries will mimic Blackpool's 2011 likeability, it also says they'll probably also do well early and later slide into relegation.

QPR: How important is Adel Taarabt?

How fake is Steven Harper's hair? (Look at the photos, not the crazy political stuff) How vital is Carey Price to a successful Canadiens season? Neil Warnock's Moroccan gem Taarabt has rammed home his importance to the Rs with every magical goal, every startling dribble move and each impressive assist. He scored or created 49.3% of QPR's goals last year and with only DJ Campbell, Kieron Dyer and Jay Bothroyd reinforcing the attackers, will need to reproduce his second-tier form on the big stage. If he can't do it - or is sold to PSG as rumoured - look at QPR like Warnock's 2006-07 brave-but-unsuccessful Sheffield United squad. Only with less talent.

Stoke City: Europa League or The Next Step?

Stoke City have made few signings despite their first European bow in a dog's age. Standing pat amidst a long-time lack of 15-goal strikers, perhaps the greatest question facing gaffer Tony Pulis is whether they can compete on both home and Continental fronts. With sound investment they could push for a 7-10 EPL finish and consequent Europa League qualification but to do so with a small squad could jeopardise their chances of making continental noise this year. Plus, there's no guarantee they could achieve such a high finish, so fans should encourage Tony to mimic Fulham and give the Europa League everything. With the scarcity of talent in the lower reaches of the division and a formidable home advantage, the Potters should avoid a relegation scrap.

Swansea: Will Scott Sinclair push for England honours?

courtesy: swanseacityafc.com

With recent England calls to his U-21 brethren Jordan Henderson, Andy Carroll, Jack Wilshere, Danny Welbeck and now Tom Cleverley, Scott Sinclair could be forgiven for feeling left out. Arguably more accomplished at club level than all but Wilshere, he's also at a much smaller team after failing to get regular chances at Chelsea. With pace to spare and clinical finishing skills, he could keep Stewart Downing, James Milner and Ashley Young looking over their shoulder on the left of England's midfield. It's unlikely, but if he plays well and moves to a bigger club or the Swans stay in the EPL, he may make his full Three Lions debut within a year or two. (Matt Jarvis has played for England for crying out loud! So have Francis Jeffers, Dave Nugent and Jay Bothroyd!)

Sunderland: Europe this season or next?

In a recent post, we argued Sunderland were pushing for Europe with the purchase of South Korean striker Ji Dong-Won, United veterans John O'Shea and Wes Brown, youngster Connor Wickham and last season's revelation Stephane Sessegnon. Craig Gardner could be the driving central force (who was supposed to be Darron Gibson) connecting an experienced backline with promising forwards. With this cast of characters, they should be aiming for a top-eight finish, perhaps replacing Fulham, Everton and Villa who finished above them last term. Bruce's squads are known for mid-season slumps, however, so this infusion of talent needs to stay "up" for the whole year.

Tottenham: Buying or selling?

With Chelsea - and, earlier, Man United - chasing wantaway midfielder Luka Modric and sums of ₤35 million bandied about, it's hard to see how Spurs' chairman Daniel Levy could resist. No matter how much 'Arry Redknapp may want him to. Modric is an excellent player who deserves Champions' League football, but also a classy guy who while wanting to leave won't kick up too much of a stink. If Spurs hold fast until January, they may be able to demand a premium (cf. Fernando Torres & Andy Carroll) if they look like missing the Champions' League next season.

West Brom: Is Shane Long worth ₤8 million?

courtesy: sportydesktops.com

Strikers jumping from Championship to Premiership for premium prices have a chequered record. Long's former Royal teammate Kevin Doyle has been a handful for Wolves but has hardly set the scoring charts alight. Dave Nugent? Pah. DJ Campbell did well for freewheeling Blackpool, but Michael Chopra failed for Sunderland. In this case, the Baggies urgently need a hitman and Long is young, quick and strong enough to do well at the Hawthorns. ₤8 million is a lot of money, but Roy Hodgson is working with a better lineup than during his first Fulham year and should have enough to avoid the relegation scrap. Long could be the player that moves WBA up a level to challenge for the top half, so is worth the cash.
(Long actually signed after publication for what's thought to be an initial 4.5 million with 3.5 million in add-ons).

Wigan: Will the beautiful football be worth it when you're in the Championship, Roberto Martinez?

Harsh, given Martinez is hamstrung by a small market, smaller attendances, a friendly-but-thrifty chairman and a spotty transfer record. For each of his seasons in Wigan, the Latics have been tipped for relegation but Martinez has kept them up playing attractive football. This year could be his undoing as Charles N'Zogbia has departed with only goalkeeper Ali Al-Habsi to replace him. Twentieth position beckons and with relegation the club will lose Hugo Rodallega, Al-Habsi, the precocious James McCarthy and ... wait - who else that matters do Wigan have? The club Dave Whelan and Paul Jewell raised through four divisions could begin a slip back down.

Wolves: What's the over/under on the number of smiles Mick McCarthy will crack this season?

4.5. Mick nearly cracked a smile in the eighty-ninth minute at Old Trafford last year but wisely opted against it as United scored the winner only moments later. This was the story of the season for Wolves as they fought the good fight only to lose gut-wrenchingly many times. With his side faltering at the last hurdle so often, he couldn't be blamed for not smiling. Reinforced by Roger Johnson and the permanent signing of Jamie O'Hara, they're another team which is hard to pick: anything that's not relegation should be considered a win; above fifteenth would mark progress.

UEFA Champions' League Review

Say what you like, no-one expected what we got this week in the UEFA Champions' League. Tottenham Hotspur kept up their startling run by taking a 1-0 lead in their two-legged tie with AC Milan, while Arsenal came back from a goal behind to defeat Barcelona at the Emirates stadium in a victory touted as perhaps the finest of Arsene Wenger's career. Meanwhile, Shakhtar Donetsk defeated Roma 3-2, while Valencia and Schalke 04 played out a one-all draw.

The biggest headlines of the week's action took place at the San Siro when Italian firebrand Gennaro Gattuso has been charged with Improper Conduct after headbutting, and threatening to choke and punch Tottenham coach Joe Jordan. The player's agent says Jordan provoked the shirty midfielder with certain remarks, claims both strenuously and predictably denied by Spurs boss Harry Redknapp. The solitary goal came from Peter Crouch who devoured an Aaron Lennon cross in the sevety-eighth minute. The return leg will be at White Hart Lane on Wednesday March 9th.

Not a good week for the Italians then, as Claudio Ranieri's Roma were spliflicated by a surging Shakhtar. The Ukrainians only mustered half the shots and only barely over 41% possession but still were able to scrape together a victory at the Stadio Olimpico and must surely be considered almost a lock to progress to the Quarter-Finals such is their home field advantage. Ranieri - no certainty to be Roma's manager by season's end - must now focus his attentions on marshaling his men into Serie A's European positions.

After his very vociferous month on Twitter, Jack Wilshere led the Gunners to victory against a Barcelona team tagged "Best Ever". Though Barca dominated the first half, the boys from North London were able to peg back the Catalans and it was Andrei Arshavin who slotted home the winner, polishing off good work by Samir Nasri. Matched up against Xavi, Busquets and Iniesta, Wilshere was magnificent and the much-maligned Laurent Koscielny justified some of his sizeable transfer fee with easily the best game of his short Arsenal career. Los Cules still managed 66% possession though and still hold a crucial away goal. The tie is far from over.

The round's scoring got underway at Valencia as Roberto Soldado put the home side ahead against Schalke. The equaliser came from Spanish maestro Raul, who tied the match with his seventy-first goal in European competition even though the Germans were on the back foot for much of the tie. Even allowing the Spaniards to dominate the ball, the Germans may have managed the best chances of the match as Junmin Hao was denied by a wonderful save from Valencia custodian Vicente Guaita Panadero.

All four ties remain very much alive. This season's been a wonderful one so far in all the major leagues: the rise of Borussia Dortmund in Germany, AC Milan's resurgence in Serie A, the most even EPL season in recent memory and the implacable brilliance of Barcelona and Real Madrid. Though 2010's World Cup may not have been one for the ages, the season following it certainly has been.

Liverpool FC: Reputations big and small

Often you hear of players saying they want to play for a “big club”. What does a big club mean? Is it the nouveau riche of the Manchester City or Chelsea or does it mean the steeped-in-tradition past glories of a Liverpool, AC Milan or Newcastle?

Being a big club is contirbuted to by four factors – the rabidity of their fans (Big edge: Old-school big clubs – as support for teams is passed down from generation to generation the Big Clubs of yore tend to have larger or more territorially-bounded fanbase); money (Big edge: Nouveau riche); results (nearly a 50/50 split here but in England given the recent success of Manchester United you'd probably give it to The Old Guard, this though Chelsea and perhaps this season Man City ensure this is changing rapidly) and arrogance (draw). Given that old clubs will always have money, if not the resource-driven superpockets of Abramovich or Sheik Mohammed, as they built their stadia before the Premier League, it really makes this issue a bit of a wash. Now to the footballer, a desirable club is a club who can pay them more money – as Sol Campbell and Notts County so elegantly proved last year - but usually that involves the UEFA Champions League.

Liverpool have always been a big club but beside their Champions League success in 2004 they haven't had the results to back this up since Stevie G was in nappies. Their money situation is quite scary for the fans as their creditors make veiled threats of a takeover. That fan base, however, remains one of the most supportive and crazy bunches the world has known.

Due to the money situation, recruitment this offseason came down to free transfers – quality ones, it must be said – but let's not beat about the bush, Joe Cole was attracted to the wages on offer rather than the Spirit of Shankly. Had Tottenham forked out the 90,000 a week he requested then you'd think our Joe would have chosen London and Champions League matches in Milan over Liverpool and Europa League matches in Rabotnicki. Liverpool for the last 20 years has only hoped to win titles – falling into the same conundrum as Newcastle United, assuming a Top Four spot is their by divine right. The football world doesn't work like this any more and the English top flight is only now working that out. The game has changed and how well a club adapts to this is reflected in their final league position – and their status as big or smaller clubs.