Football's fate worse than death: stupidity

Relegation from the English Premier League is costly, we get it*. It’s therefore to be avoided – especially when you have spent (or are spending) a ton of money to get to your current elevated perch of seventeenth-best club in the nation.

For Chris Hughton, manager of Norwich City, apparently it’s more than that – it’s “a matter of life and death”. He’s been told that by his CEO at the Canaries, David McNally, so it must be true. Should his club fall into the relegation zone, his position becomes forfeit and the club will spuriously employ someone(s) else in an attempt to stop losing both matches and eventually money.

Norwich City fans have every right to be a “fine” with McNally’s statement. Death is not nice, even in a sporting sense. It would be a horrible thing to see the Canaries wink out of existence altogether. On the other hand, relegation merely would be a fiscal encumbrance (and would presumably lead to the knock-on departures of key players Gary Hooper, Leroy Fer and Wes Hoolahan).

There’s a difference between “death” and financially disadvantaged – even Paris Hilton manages to distinguish between the two.

Even though Norwich City are a club that don’t feature a Sugar Daddy, as a Premiership team they are privileged to receive a wonderful income as a result of their past successes in League One and the Championship. For a CEO to advertise the loss of those revenues as a tragedy akin to death is insensitive, arrant nonsense.

Taking death at its most simplest definition, McNally's comments are shown in an extremely poor light by the deaths of migrants working on Qatari stadia for the entertainment of football fans and fatuous glorification of the hosts.

In a sporting sense, comparing a season or two (or ten) outside the Premiership to ceasing to exist is … unnerving. It’s also an undeserved rebuke to the fans of Wimbledon, Darlington, Chester City or any club unfortunate enough to have folded during the Premiership’s money-hungry existence.

Philosophers don't come more unlikely than Arnold Judas Rimmer. Red Dwarf's cowardly antagonist was, however, on occasion wont to wax poetic and deep. In the final moments of the last episode of Season Six, he conjured up one of these moments stating "Better dead than smeg". With his greedy insensitivity, David McNally has apparently made the opposite choice.

* It’s both remarkable and extremely funny that an article on English football is posted under “highbrow sports”.

Three things: Rooney reinvented

Maybe Sir Alex has found his central midfielder

Experts suggested Sir Alex Ferguson fling his summer spending money at a central midfielder with tenacity and passing range. Instead, he thrust an enormous great wodge of cash at former rival Arsene Wenger and made away with Robin van Persie.

This left the centre of Old Trafford manned by the solid but ultimately-misunderstood Michael Carrick, the Premiership's largest pannus (Anderson), the as-yet unfulfilled promise of Tom Cleverley and Paul Scholes' walking frame. What they wouldn't give for a Yohan Cabaye, a Cheick Tiote or Marek Hamsik. A glut up front and then … a gap.

Perhaps no more: the Red Devils went to Newcastle yesterday with a resurgent Wayne Rooney playing in the middle of the park. This allows Shinji Kagawa – perhaps United's most impressive player so far this season – to play in his preferred no. 10 role and Robin van Persie to do what he does best. Although this goes against Coaching 101, which states a coach should play his best player in his best position, there are now credible questions as to whether Rooney is in fact the best player at Old Trafford.

As Rooney enters his ostensible prime, it seems he should be playing in the position which will allow him to have the most success, and that's his favoured second-striker role. Rooney as central-midfielder doesn't feel right, almost a waste of the best English offensive talent of his generation to play him back from goal so far – but it could well be the best method to allow United to win and win often. It certainly helps that Rooney has more talent in his little finger than Anderson in his entire ample body.

Although still mightily effective, Paul Scholes is ancient. This makes Rooney the best centre midfielder at United's disposal. With a surfeit of options ahead, Wayne Rooney may spend the best part of season 2012-13 creating, rather than finishing chances.

Andre Villas-Boas changes goalkeepers, creates controversy

A week after engineering Spurs' first league win at Old Trafford for 23 years and in the midst of some outstanding goalkeeping from Brad Friedel, Andre Villas-Boas changed tack: he started French no. 1 Hugo Lloris between the sticks. Thus, he ended Friedel's remarkable stretch of 310 consecutive starts in what appeared to be somewhat of a capricious choice. Known as a model professional, Friedel took it well – when arrived at White Hart Lane before last season with Heurelho Gomes and Carlo Cudicini, he can't possibly have expected to play every game.

Spurs got the win against a workmanlike Aston Villa side and Lloris claimed the club's first clean sheet of the season.

The result across the pond was curious. Some US TV commentators, most notably Eric Wynalda, were disgusted with the dapper Villas-Boas, claiming Friedel was disrespected and would subsequently look to leave the club.

Villas-Boas can't win. When Lloris didn't play immediately, France coach Didier Deschamps accused the Spurs manager of disrespect. Now, when Friedel is asked to sit – perhaps only for one game – there are others with vested interests (Wynalda and Friedel have commentated together) who sing the opposing song.

The thing is that Friedel is 41 and can't last forever; Lloris was signed to be Spurs' long-term keeper. He has to play. Perhaps Villas-Boas did misjudge how and when to play Lloris, but to suggest that it automatically constitutes disrespect is an awfully long a bow to draw without intimate access to the Tottenham dressing sheds.

Splitting goalkeepers rarely works – just ask Sir Alex Ferguson how the Lindegaard/De Gea horses-for-courses policy is working. Villas-Boas has a pleasant dilemma in having two starting-quality keepers at his disposal. Can't we just be happy for him?

Second season syndrome

Norwich City impressed last year on their promotion to the Premiership. This year they appear to have lost some of the cohesion that made them so formidable in 2011-12. What's the difference?

Although there wasn't a great changeover of personnel, there most major was when Paul Lambert left Carrow Road for Villa Park. It was an acrimonious split and last week both parties alleged that the other was suing them. Before leaving, Lambert refused to pay Grant Holt what the big striker thought he was worth, resulting in the former tyre-fitter issuing a transfer request. The air of optimism that surrounded Norwich City last season has been replaced with one of distress.

The club keeps shopping goals – four to Chelsea on the weekend – and, at the same time, hasn't exuded the same tenacity and fluidity that exemplified Lambert's Canaries. New boss Chris Hughton is a good manager, but earns his money by empowering players in a similar “keep it simple” system to that employed by Harry Redknapp. It may not be enough.

Players play best when they're happy. Holt definitely isn't, as last week he lashed out at Roy Hodgson for failing to recognise his form with an England call-up. He's also the principal leader for the squad. Hughton has to right the ship – quickly – before this season starts to ape the ill-fated 2004-05 term.

Promoted teams' survival rates

(click photo to enlarge)

Key: Blue = Uninterrupted Premier League tenure; Red = In lower division; Grey = season yet to be played; Green = team in Premier League after relegation (and probable lineup changes).

The above chart maps the fortunes of all the teams promoted tot he English Premier League since 2001.  It shows the startling decrease over the past four years of promoted teams strengthening over time.

Full analysis coming Friday.  As this is as artistic as I get, thought it was worth sharing early.

English Premier League Season Preview, part 2

Click here for part one of our Premier League season preview.

Newcastle: New beginnings, or same old same old?

More than any other club, the fortunes of Newcastle United depend on their summer signings: Sylvain Marveaux, Yohan Cabaye, Demba Ba and this season's "like a new signing", Hatem Ben Arfa. The dressing room culture remains awful - as evidenced by Jose Enrique and Joey Barton's apocalyptic tweets - while one wonders if the Magpies have leaders enough to inspire focus among the troops. With Mike Ashley allegedly breaking promises left and right (the last of which were to extend Kevin Nolan's contract and to re-invest all of the ₤35 million they got for Andy Carroll), it seems another troubled season on Tyneside which could see them finish in the top half or sixteenth.

Norwich: Are they already preparing for life back in the Championship?

Paul Lambert and the key Wes Hoolahan

Paul Lambert has brought in several youngsters - Anthony Pilkington, Elliott Bennett and James Vaughan - for significant monies and is banking on their exuberance and pace for a successful season. Or a double-dip into the Championship a la West Brom and the promise of a stronger resultant outfit. While the head says the Canaries will mimic Blackpool's 2011 likeability, it also says they'll probably also do well early and later slide into relegation.

QPR: How important is Adel Taarabt?

How fake is Steven Harper's hair? (Look at the photos, not the crazy political stuff) How vital is Carey Price to a successful Canadiens season? Neil Warnock's Moroccan gem Taarabt has rammed home his importance to the Rs with every magical goal, every startling dribble move and each impressive assist. He scored or created 49.3% of QPR's goals last year and with only DJ Campbell, Kieron Dyer and Jay Bothroyd reinforcing the attackers, will need to reproduce his second-tier form on the big stage. If he can't do it - or is sold to PSG as rumoured - look at QPR like Warnock's 2006-07 brave-but-unsuccessful Sheffield United squad. Only with less talent.

Stoke City: Europa League or The Next Step?

Stoke City have made few signings despite their first European bow in a dog's age. Standing pat amidst a long-time lack of 15-goal strikers, perhaps the greatest question facing gaffer Tony Pulis is whether they can compete on both home and Continental fronts. With sound investment they could push for a 7-10 EPL finish and consequent Europa League qualification but to do so with a small squad could jeopardise their chances of making continental noise this year. Plus, there's no guarantee they could achieve such a high finish, so fans should encourage Tony to mimic Fulham and give the Europa League everything. With the scarcity of talent in the lower reaches of the division and a formidable home advantage, the Potters should avoid a relegation scrap.

Swansea: Will Scott Sinclair push for England honours?

courtesy: swanseacityafc.com

With recent England calls to his U-21 brethren Jordan Henderson, Andy Carroll, Jack Wilshere, Danny Welbeck and now Tom Cleverley, Scott Sinclair could be forgiven for feeling left out. Arguably more accomplished at club level than all but Wilshere, he's also at a much smaller team after failing to get regular chances at Chelsea. With pace to spare and clinical finishing skills, he could keep Stewart Downing, James Milner and Ashley Young looking over their shoulder on the left of England's midfield. It's unlikely, but if he plays well and moves to a bigger club or the Swans stay in the EPL, he may make his full Three Lions debut within a year or two. (Matt Jarvis has played for England for crying out loud! So have Francis Jeffers, Dave Nugent and Jay Bothroyd!)

Sunderland: Europe this season or next?

In a recent post, we argued Sunderland were pushing for Europe with the purchase of South Korean striker Ji Dong-Won, United veterans John O'Shea and Wes Brown, youngster Connor Wickham and last season's revelation Stephane Sessegnon. Craig Gardner could be the driving central force (who was supposed to be Darron Gibson) connecting an experienced backline with promising forwards. With this cast of characters, they should be aiming for a top-eight finish, perhaps replacing Fulham, Everton and Villa who finished above them last term. Bruce's squads are known for mid-season slumps, however, so this infusion of talent needs to stay "up" for the whole year.

Tottenham: Buying or selling?

With Chelsea - and, earlier, Man United - chasing wantaway midfielder Luka Modric and sums of ₤35 million bandied about, it's hard to see how Spurs' chairman Daniel Levy could resist. No matter how much 'Arry Redknapp may want him to. Modric is an excellent player who deserves Champions' League football, but also a classy guy who while wanting to leave won't kick up too much of a stink. If Spurs hold fast until January, they may be able to demand a premium (cf. Fernando Torres & Andy Carroll) if they look like missing the Champions' League next season.

West Brom: Is Shane Long worth ₤8 million?

courtesy: sportydesktops.com

Strikers jumping from Championship to Premiership for premium prices have a chequered record. Long's former Royal teammate Kevin Doyle has been a handful for Wolves but has hardly set the scoring charts alight. Dave Nugent? Pah. DJ Campbell did well for freewheeling Blackpool, but Michael Chopra failed for Sunderland. In this case, the Baggies urgently need a hitman and Long is young, quick and strong enough to do well at the Hawthorns. ₤8 million is a lot of money, but Roy Hodgson is working with a better lineup than during his first Fulham year and should have enough to avoid the relegation scrap. Long could be the player that moves WBA up a level to challenge for the top half, so is worth the cash.
(Long actually signed after publication for what's thought to be an initial 4.5 million with 3.5 million in add-ons).

Wigan: Will the beautiful football be worth it when you're in the Championship, Roberto Martinez?

Harsh, given Martinez is hamstrung by a small market, smaller attendances, a friendly-but-thrifty chairman and a spotty transfer record. For each of his seasons in Wigan, the Latics have been tipped for relegation but Martinez has kept them up playing attractive football. This year could be his undoing as Charles N'Zogbia has departed with only goalkeeper Ali Al-Habsi to replace him. Twentieth position beckons and with relegation the club will lose Hugo Rodallega, Al-Habsi, the precocious James McCarthy and ... wait - who else that matters do Wigan have? The club Dave Whelan and Paul Jewell raised through four divisions could begin a slip back down.

Wolves: What's the over/under on the number of smiles Mick McCarthy will crack this season?

4.5. Mick nearly cracked a smile in the eighty-ninth minute at Old Trafford last year but wisely opted against it as United scored the winner only moments later. This was the story of the season for Wolves as they fought the good fight only to lose gut-wrenchingly many times. With his side faltering at the last hurdle so often, he couldn't be blamed for not smiling. Reinforced by Roger Johnson and the permanent signing of Jamie O'Hara, they're another team which is hard to pick: anything that's not relegation should be considered a win; above fifteenth would mark progress.

The Ballpark Guide to Promoted teams' spending

When writing a piece for the Montreal Gazette concerning how much each promoted side had paid to assemble their roster, it was interesting to note the circumstances of each team. Queens Park Rangers, though ostensibly backed by the capacious pockets of Bernie Ecclestone and perhaps Lakshmi Mittal, have spent a miserly ₤1.25 million on striker D.J. Campbell while both Swansea City and Norwich City have repeatedly raided the Football League for standouts and bargains.

courtesy: thecomet.net

To praecy, both Norwich and Swansea Cities have spent record transfer fees this year on strikers from the Championship; the Swans captured Watford's Danny Graham, while the East Anglian avian cousins grabbed Welsh International Steve Morison from Millwall. Both clubs have also re-tooled with stars of the lower-tiers like Wayne Routledge, Leroy Lita, Anthony Pilkington and Elliott Bennett.

Though both are spending - both appear to have spent nearly nine million pounds - it seems both are following the WBA and Blackpool approach to the Premiership: survival would be nice, but not worth overextending the club's finances. With sound investment and a keen eye on the wage bill, the parachute payments should see a club in contention for promotion again within a year or two.

Prudence has been the order of the day in both far East and West. Not only do lower-leaguers cost less, but they also demand smaller wage packets as they seek a chance for Premier League success. Like the global economy, we could see these clubs prepared to "double-dip" to avoid mimicking the harrowing fortunes of Hull City or Portsmouth.

courtesy: goal.com

These sudden wodges of cash burning holes in the pockets of Paul Lambert and Brendan Rodgers aren't dissimilar to those spent by Newcastle United and West Bromwich Albion before last season. QPR's meagre investment is dwarfed even by Blackpool's last season, who spent less than four million pounds. Both have preferred to bring in free transfers. The difference between the two, however, is that the Rs spent mostly in 2007-08-09, bringing in the likes of Heidar Helguson, Hogan Ephraim, Alejandro Faurlin and Matthew Connolly.

Newcastle United are perhaps the most atypical promoted side in recent history. Rather than being a long-term Championship heavyweight such as WBA, Birmingham or (to a lesser extent) Wolves, they easily won the Championship after years of bringing in players who fit a Tyneside lust for power. Like perhaps West Ham United will be this term, Newcastle were a Premier League squad playing in the Championship.

The table below is designed to give ballpark figures of how much each club spent in their promotion year. Please note that these figures were assembled using a variety of websites such as SkySports, transfermarkt.co.uk, soccerbase.com and news reports. When transfer fees were not disclosed, the last known rumoured price was used (often preceding the actual deal by only hours). This means it's unlikely the figures are 100% accurate; however, they are as close to accurate as can be found online or without detailed knowledge of a club's inner workings. Loans are not included.

Key: K = thousand, M = million.  All figures in pounds.  "Accurate" to 5th August 2011.  Players not given a squad number (eg. Lee Cook, Rowan Vine & Martin Rowlands) not included.

	Championship Winner		Automatic Promotion		Playoffs Winner
Year	2010	2011	2010	2011	2010	2011
Team	Newcastle	QPR	West Brom	Norwich	Blackpool	Swansea
Years in Champ'ship	1	7	1	1	3	3
Plyrs in on Promotion:	5	4	7	5	10	4
Spent when Promoted	9.5M	1.25M	7.6M	8.6M	3.85M*	8.75M
Spent Year before	5.15M	4.05M	3.1M	3.025M	500K	1.75M
Squad Academy Graduates	5	4	Nil	3	1	3
Highest fee paid for current plyr:	10.3M (Coloccini)	3.5M (Faurlin)	3M (Brunt)	2.8M (Morison)	1.2M (Campbell)	3.5M (Graham)
Squad FTs:	5	9	6	5	12	9
GK Spend	0	750 000	3.25M	100 000	0	1.5M
DF Spend	19.35M	2.45M	11.1M	2.125M	1.675M	400K
MID Spend	29.2M	8.3M	6.55M	3.35 M	2.325M	3.985M
Fwd Spend	11.2M	3.4M	9.2M	8.4M	1.29M	6.7M
Total:	59.75M	14.9M	30.1M	13.98M	5.29M	12.185M
Avg p/plyr:	2.39M	596K	1.2M	559K	211.6K	487.4K

*Includes estimates of price paid for David Carney and Neal Eardley.

The Cost of Promotion to the Premiership

In the wake of some silly spending by Sven-Goran Eriksson and Leicester City as well as pre-season predictions of doom for the three English Premiership newcomers this season, it's worth taking the time to examine just how much it costs to contend in England's top division.

To do so, we can evaluate how much it costs to buy players needed to finish in the Championship's automatic promotion positions or win through via the Playoffs. Please note that these figures were assembled using a variety of websites and sources. They may be 100% accurate, but the likelihood is that they are as close to accurate as can be found online or without detailed knowledge of a club's inner workings.  When a transfer was marked as "undisclosed", we used the last rumoured price - which often preceded the actual deal by days or hours.  These aren't obviously meant to be definite guides but ballpark figures.

Player salaries - generally for all these teams quite manageable - and loan players have not been included.  D.J. Campbell, who has agreed a move to QPR that is yet to be confirmed, is.

Key: K = thousand, M = million, F = free transfer, Y = graduated club's youth academy, N = nominal fee. All figures in pounds.

Queens' Park Rangers

2010-11 Position: First in Championship, automatic promotion.

Academy Graduates: 4

Highest fee paid for current player: ₤3.5 million for midfielder Alejandro Faurlin (2009)

Goalkeepers: R. Cerny (F), P. Kenny (750K), E. Putnins (Y) - total ₤750K

Defenders: M. Connolly (1M), D. Gabbidon (F), K. Gorkss (250K), F. Hall (700K), C. Hill (F), B. Orr (500K), P. Ramage (F), D. Shittu (F) - total ₤2.45M

Midfielders: M. Doughty (Y), A. Bruno (Y), A. Buzsaky (500K), S. Derry (F), H. Ephraim (800K), A. Faurlin (3.5M), M. Harriman (Y), J. Mackie (500K), P. Vaagen Moen (F), T. Smith (1.5M), A. Taarabt (1.5) - total ₤8.3M

Forwards: J. Bothroyd (F), P. Agyemang (350K), H. Helguson (1M), R. Hulse (800K), A. Pellicori (F), D.J. Campbell (1.25M) - total ₤3.4M

Total: ₤14.9 million.

% of total spent this summer: 8.39%

Norwich City

2010-11 Position: Second in Championship, automatic promotion

Academy Graduates: 3

Highest fee paid for current player: ₤2.8 million for striker Steve Morison (2011)

Goalkeepers: J. Ruddy (100K), D. Rudd (Y)

Defenders: R. Martin (250K), A. Drury (500K), Z. Whitbread (350K?), L. Barnett (750K), E. Ward (F), M. Tierney (275K) - total ₤2.125M.

Midfielders: B. Johnson (F), A. Crofts (F), A. Surman (1.45M), W. Hoolahan (250K), D. Fox (F), E. Bennett (1.3M), K. Smith (Y), S. Lappin (100K), A. McNamee (250K), S. Hughes (F) - total ₤3.35M

Forwards: S. Morison (2.8M), J. Vaughan (2.5M), S. Jackson (600K), G. Holt (400K), A. Pilkington (2M), C. Martin (Y), A. Wilbraham (100K) - total ₤8.4M.

Total: ₤13.975 million.

% of total spent this summer: 61.54%

Swansea City

2010-11 Position: Third in Championship, defeated Nottm Forest & Reading in playoffs

Academy Graduates: 3

Highest fee paid for current player: ₤3.5 million for forward Danny Graham (2011)

Goalkeepers: Y. Makabu Ma Kalambay (F), D. Cornell (Y), J. Moreira (1.5M?) - total ₤1.5M

Defenders: A. Rangel (N), G. Monk (F), A. Tate (F), N. Taylor (F), A. Williams (400K)

Midfielders: M. Gower (F), K. Agustien (F), J. Allen (Y), D. Cotterill (600K), N. Dyer (400K), S. Sinclair (500K), A. Richards (Y), A. Orlandi (F), L. Britton (400K), F. Bodde (85K), W. Routledge (2M) - total ₤3.985M

Forwards: L. Moore (850K), S. Dobbie (F), D. Graham (3.5), C. Beattie (600K), L. Lita (1.75M) - total ₤6.7M

Total: ₤12.185M

% of total spent this summer: 67.71% 

QPR's Adel Taarabt.

Charlie Adam: from Bottom to Top

Charlie Adam appears to have finally sealed a move to Liverpool, six months after it was first mooted during the January transfer window. Now, the questions that remain aren't so much when and how much (a mooted ₤7 million-plus-loanees), but how he and his magical left boot will fit into Liverpool's now increasingly crowded central midfield. While he indubitably has the skill, fire and vision, his greatest drawback may be his body shape as he hearkens back to the days of solid footballers, rather than lithe athletes.

Charlie Adam's Wikipedia page in January

Perhaps more interestingly, he becomes the first player to jump from a Premiership relegated club to one of the "big" clubs in quite some considerable time. He is certainly the first to go to an established , Old-School"Big Four" club for a sizeable fee (and thus expectation) since Peter Crouch moved from the south coast to the north-west. This indicates easily how reliant on him Blackpool became, and also how warmly fellow Scot Kenny Dalglish must think of his countryman.

Over the past few seasons, plenty of players have used the predicament of relegation to their advantage: in fact, raiding the relegated has become an annual pastime for those clubs chock-full of TV revenue. After season 2010-2011 alone, many players stand to improve their footballing and financial fortunes as their clubs slide back into the Championship. Adam's fellow Blackpool standouts David Vaughan, Matt Gilks and DJ Campbell look likely to depart - or have already. The entire Birmigham City defense looks liable to be for sale to the highest bid considering their English roots and 2009-10 efficacy, while Scott Parker, Rob Green, Carlton Cole, Thomas Hitzlsperger and Matthew Upson are all established Internationals with English roots and an eye for Premier League, rather than Championship, football.

That most (if not all) these players will be in the Premiership next term is testament to the wonderful season of English Premier League football we have just experienced - not vintage in terms of great play, but by recent standards surprising, combative and very, very even.

But very few players make the leap from the very bottom to the very top. Those who do often arrive as role players or depth and without significant expectation. In recent memory, those that stand out as being snaffled by top-six sides include Crouch, Michael Owen's fabulous Bosman from Newcastle to a new injury-list in the red half of Manchester and Ross Turnbull's astonishing free to Chelsea - surprising more for the Blues' desire than for any other reason; he's subsequently played two matches in two years. 

That clubs as small as Wigan and Blackpool have been able to make a good fist of staying up speaks volumes of the uniform nature of the Premier League when both could so easily have simply faded into gauche unadventurous football. Both clubs have in past had one player on whom they relied: the Tangerines on Adam, and the Latics last year on Charles N'Zogbia. They are almost featured players - soloists in otherwise pedestrian orchestras.

This reluctance for the big clubs to spend on the little guy could come for a couple of reasons - because the bigger fish may reason that the player isn't sufficiently talented or because there are better players available for a similar cost. Perhaps, amidst the ghastly sums thrown about for unproven and sulky forwards, the big clubs are seeking some semblance of Return on Investment; by opting for tried performers - albeit talent coming from performances in vastly different systems.

Of course such theories are debunked easily and painfully by the ₤50 million Manchester United has offloaded already, a rumoured ₤20 million bid for Downing from Liverpool and Chelsea's concerted - and potentially unrequited - chase for Neymar.  While Financial Fair Play apparently isn't restricting the big clubs' overall spending, it is having a more subtle impact - it requires them to hold out for fiscal, as well as footballing Return on Investment. Ferguson's willingness to sell one-club lieutenants seems to indicate the greatest contribution they can now make to the Red Devils could be evening United's balance sheet.

As clubs enter the Premiership with a plan - and do good jobs of sticking to that blueprint - prepare to witness more of this phenomenon. All of QPR, Norwich City and Swansea City play an unsophisticated method - and the Canaries and Swans are exciting to watch. This could result in the same occurring next year: with Scott Sinclair, Wes Hoolahan or even James McCarthy taking the role of featured soloist.

Lambert engineers Norwich City's Premiership promotion

How much credit a manager can take for a club's results finds its definition with Norwich City boss Paul Lambert. Yesterday, his Canaries defeated Portsmouth 1-0 away to clinch promotion to the Premiership. In doing so, they secured their second successive promotion, the first time such a feat has occurred since the Premiership's bourgeousie nouveau riche Manchester City did so in 2000.

Although the former Scotland international, now regarded as English management's brightest of bright young things, won the European Cup as a player with Borussia Dortmund and had a storied career at Celtic, he is best known south of the border now for his exploits in East Anglia having helmed the club to it's highest point in eight years after joining while at it's nadir.

He took the reins after the first week of the 2009-10 League One season, a season which saw Norwich City in the third tier for the first time in forty-nine years and after a match which saw Norwich thumped 1-7 before their own fans at Carrow Road by Colchester United. Lambert managed Colchester that day and was appointed to succeed Bryan Gunn, who fell on his sword after the heaviest defeat in Canary history. His first task was to stem the haemmorhage and then focus on promotion.

Rather than subscribe to dour play, he utilised a 4-4-2 Diamond formation based around the attacking play of Grant Holt and Wes Hoolahan. While the season started slowly - in late September they sat in fourteenth position with only two wins and four draws from nine - the Canaries suddenly began a rampage with sixteen wins and two draws from nineteen matches, planting them firmly atop the League One table. They ended the season nine points clear of Leeds United as Champions, with a goal difference 10% greater to their nearest rival's. For the last twenty rounds of the season, Norwich had occupied first position.

This year in the Championship, they've been no less spectacular. They again lead the league in Goals scored (six more than nearest rivals Cardiff) and, should the FA decide to impose a points sanction on QPR for signing Argentine midfielder Alejandro Faurlin from a third party, they may end the season as Champions again. Canadian Simeon Jackson's late-season form surge helped Holt secure the goals that led to vital wins time and again, while the Canaries are a much fitter outfit and more financially stable. What cash crises have plagued them in the past should, with adept fiscal management, be things of the past.

Norwich City's achievements are so heartwarming because their initial expectations for the season consisted of no more than staying up. Now, like Blackpool before them, they will take on perhaps Europe's most intense league. They'll do so boasting a squad with a combined total of 38 games of Premiership experience and only 26 EPL starts. Twenty of those starts belong to three defenders Rob Edwards, Elliot War and Leon Barnett. Several of their number, including their captain Holt, begun their careers in non-league football. For them to gel so wonderfully for one man pays homage to his motivation and tactics.

For years, pundits asked of success if it's the players, the coaches, or even the shoes. There's no doubt that a upgrade in manager - or even just a change of tune - can make a serious difference to a club's performance: Inter Milan crept up the table when Rafael Benítez was displaced with little player turnover. This isn't to say that Benítez is a bad manager - a Champions' League title says he's not - but that he either assessed the situation poorly or wasn't able to win over the dressing room with his motivational or tactical style. Where Rafa failed with big club, Lambert has succeeded in spades with a smaller one. With only moderate financial backing, he has orchestrated one of the key feats of this nascent footballing decade.

For that he should be congratulated.

Photo courtesy: www.guardian.co.uk

The Shape of Premierships to Come

Although not a foregone conclusion, Manchester United seem to be waddling away with the Premiership - needing to not only stumble, but actually fall over to drop top spot - so perhaps it's worth taking a look at the possible shape of the Premiership next year by examining England's second tier, the Championship.

One level removed from the big bucks there's a fantastic promotion race. Only a month ago, league-leading Queens Park Rangers seemed assured of automatic promotion but now their chances depend almost solely on an FA disciplinary hearing set for May 3rd. The Londoners, led by the abrasive Neil Warnock and bankrolled by Formula One's Bernie Ecclestone and Flavio Briatore, sat a dozen points clear on top behind a miserly defence and the silkiness of Moroccan midfielder Adel Taarabt. Now, with their lead cut to nine, they face investigation into their acquisition of Argentine midfielder Alejandro Faurlin as sources suggest he was not signed from a club side, but from a third party.

Since the Carlos Tevez saga of 2006-07 which saw Sheffield United (managed by Warnock) relegated, the FA instituted rules about the purchase of players whose rights aren't owned by club sides. If it's found the Rs have acted in breach of league regulations they could face fines or even be stripped of points. Since this is the first alleged breach since the Tevez affair, no-one knows what form any potential punishment may take. Probably in order to beef up speculation and anticipation, the Football League has scheduled the hearing for three days before the last round of matches.

The peloton chasing is full of the usual suspects and clubs seeking redemption. Norwich City occupy second position and are chasing successive promotions under Paul Lambert, the brightest of bright young things in English football management. They play an exciting style based around the talents of make-good striker Grant Holt, who has found a home after being rejected by several lower-league clubs. Playoff constants Cardiff City lie directly behind them one point adrift of the Canaries' automatic promotion slot. Their nemesis - whoever they play in the Promotion Playoffs - could well be rivals Swansea City, equal on points and goal difference and reaping the benefit of a Chelsea connection: club-record signing Scott Sinclair and loanee Fabio Borini both arrived at the club through manager Brendan Rogers' contacts. Reading sit a further three points back.

A very even season in the Premiership - one in which any of twelve clubs could go down and all three promoted sides could survive - is mirrored in the second division as all three sides promoted from League One last year could make the Promotion Playoffs: Leeds United have 64 points and Millwall 60 after arriving from the third tier with Norwich City. As the Premiership becomes more even thanks to squad limits and the Global Financial Crisis, the Championship seems to be benefiting as clubs are able sign better quality players at cutdown prices simply because they don't have a squad position at their original teams, which can only serve to benefit English football.

So late in the season and with no evidence on which to decide on any potential punishment for QPR, let's hedge our bets and suggest that should they not receive a significant points sanction, they and Norwich will qualify for automatic promotion, leaving a battle between Welsh arch-rivals for the final promotion spot. Should Rangers lose over six points in sanctions, however, all bets are off. Cardiff have experience in these situations - and thus a huge amount of baggage . Past results favour the in-form and exuberant clubs like Blackpool, Burnley, Watford and Hull, suggesting Swansea City may have the edge over their Celtic rivals.