English Premier League Season Preview, part 2

Click here for part one of our Premier League season preview.

Newcastle: New beginnings, or same old same old?

More than any other club, the fortunes of Newcastle United depend on their summer signings: Sylvain Marveaux, Yohan Cabaye, Demba Ba and this season's "like a new signing", Hatem Ben Arfa. The dressing room culture remains awful - as evidenced by Jose Enrique and Joey Barton's apocalyptic tweets - while one wonders if the Magpies have leaders enough to inspire focus among the troops. With Mike Ashley allegedly breaking promises left and right (the last of which were to extend Kevin Nolan's contract and to re-invest all of the ₤35 million they got for Andy Carroll), it seems another troubled season on Tyneside which could see them finish in the top half or sixteenth.

Norwich: Are they already preparing for life back in the Championship?

Paul Lambert and the key Wes Hoolahan

Paul Lambert has brought in several youngsters - Anthony Pilkington, Elliott Bennett and James Vaughan - for significant monies and is banking on their exuberance and pace for a successful season. Or a double-dip into the Championship a la West Brom and the promise of a stronger resultant outfit. While the head says the Canaries will mimic Blackpool's 2011 likeability, it also says they'll probably also do well early and later slide into relegation.

QPR: How important is Adel Taarabt?

How fake is Steven Harper's hair? (Look at the photos, not the crazy political stuff) How vital is Carey Price to a successful Canadiens season? Neil Warnock's Moroccan gem Taarabt has rammed home his importance to the Rs with every magical goal, every startling dribble move and each impressive assist. He scored or created 49.3% of QPR's goals last year and with only DJ Campbell, Kieron Dyer and Jay Bothroyd reinforcing the attackers, will need to reproduce his second-tier form on the big stage. If he can't do it - or is sold to PSG as rumoured - look at QPR like Warnock's 2006-07 brave-but-unsuccessful Sheffield United squad. Only with less talent.

Stoke City: Europa League or The Next Step?

Stoke City have made few signings despite their first European bow in a dog's age. Standing pat amidst a long-time lack of 15-goal strikers, perhaps the greatest question facing gaffer Tony Pulis is whether they can compete on both home and Continental fronts. With sound investment they could push for a 7-10 EPL finish and consequent Europa League qualification but to do so with a small squad could jeopardise their chances of making continental noise this year. Plus, there's no guarantee they could achieve such a high finish, so fans should encourage Tony to mimic Fulham and give the Europa League everything. With the scarcity of talent in the lower reaches of the division and a formidable home advantage, the Potters should avoid a relegation scrap.

Swansea: Will Scott Sinclair push for England honours?

courtesy: swanseacityafc.com

With recent England calls to his U-21 brethren Jordan Henderson, Andy Carroll, Jack Wilshere, Danny Welbeck and now Tom Cleverley, Scott Sinclair could be forgiven for feeling left out. Arguably more accomplished at club level than all but Wilshere, he's also at a much smaller team after failing to get regular chances at Chelsea. With pace to spare and clinical finishing skills, he could keep Stewart Downing, James Milner and Ashley Young looking over their shoulder on the left of England's midfield. It's unlikely, but if he plays well and moves to a bigger club or the Swans stay in the EPL, he may make his full Three Lions debut within a year or two. (Matt Jarvis has played for England for crying out loud! So have Francis Jeffers, Dave Nugent and Jay Bothroyd!)

Sunderland: Europe this season or next?

In a recent post, we argued Sunderland were pushing for Europe with the purchase of South Korean striker Ji Dong-Won, United veterans John O'Shea and Wes Brown, youngster Connor Wickham and last season's revelation Stephane Sessegnon. Craig Gardner could be the driving central force (who was supposed to be Darron Gibson) connecting an experienced backline with promising forwards. With this cast of characters, they should be aiming for a top-eight finish, perhaps replacing Fulham, Everton and Villa who finished above them last term. Bruce's squads are known for mid-season slumps, however, so this infusion of talent needs to stay "up" for the whole year.

Tottenham: Buying or selling?

With Chelsea - and, earlier, Man United - chasing wantaway midfielder Luka Modric and sums of ₤35 million bandied about, it's hard to see how Spurs' chairman Daniel Levy could resist. No matter how much 'Arry Redknapp may want him to. Modric is an excellent player who deserves Champions' League football, but also a classy guy who while wanting to leave won't kick up too much of a stink. If Spurs hold fast until January, they may be able to demand a premium (cf. Fernando Torres & Andy Carroll) if they look like missing the Champions' League next season.

West Brom: Is Shane Long worth ₤8 million?

courtesy: sportydesktops.com

Strikers jumping from Championship to Premiership for premium prices have a chequered record. Long's former Royal teammate Kevin Doyle has been a handful for Wolves but has hardly set the scoring charts alight. Dave Nugent? Pah. DJ Campbell did well for freewheeling Blackpool, but Michael Chopra failed for Sunderland. In this case, the Baggies urgently need a hitman and Long is young, quick and strong enough to do well at the Hawthorns. ₤8 million is a lot of money, but Roy Hodgson is working with a better lineup than during his first Fulham year and should have enough to avoid the relegation scrap. Long could be the player that moves WBA up a level to challenge for the top half, so is worth the cash.
(Long actually signed after publication for what's thought to be an initial 4.5 million with 3.5 million in add-ons).

Wigan: Will the beautiful football be worth it when you're in the Championship, Roberto Martinez?

Harsh, given Martinez is hamstrung by a small market, smaller attendances, a friendly-but-thrifty chairman and a spotty transfer record. For each of his seasons in Wigan, the Latics have been tipped for relegation but Martinez has kept them up playing attractive football. This year could be his undoing as Charles N'Zogbia has departed with only goalkeeper Ali Al-Habsi to replace him. Twentieth position beckons and with relegation the club will lose Hugo Rodallega, Al-Habsi, the precocious James McCarthy and ... wait - who else that matters do Wigan have? The club Dave Whelan and Paul Jewell raised through four divisions could begin a slip back down.

Wolves: What's the over/under on the number of smiles Mick McCarthy will crack this season?

4.5. Mick nearly cracked a smile in the eighty-ninth minute at Old Trafford last year but wisely opted against it as United scored the winner only moments later. This was the story of the season for Wolves as they fought the good fight only to lose gut-wrenchingly many times. With his side faltering at the last hurdle so often, he couldn't be blamed for not smiling. Reinforced by Roger Johnson and the permanent signing of Jamie O'Hara, they're another team which is hard to pick: anything that's not relegation should be considered a win; above fifteenth would mark progress.

What next for West Ham?

This weekend, three of Europe's more famous clubs - Sampdoria, Frankfurt and West Ham - were condemned to the second divisions of their respective countries. Perhaps the smallest reverberations came with West Ham's demotion: the Hammers struggled all season long under a hangdog, lame-dog manager and if the same the lack of spirit shown by several senior West Ham figures is reproduced next year, it could indicate a lengthy stay for the club in the second tier. Popular expectation is that the squad will be gutted as several key players depart: Football Writers' Association Player of the Year Scott Parker, the out of contract Matthew Upson and goalkeeper Robert Green are likely to lead the exodus.

But all is not lost: they still plan to take over the Olympic Stadium after 2012 and Messrs Gold & Sullivan have committed to funding the club through it's lower-league jaunt. With such basic groundwork established reasonably, West Ham now face the prospect of rebounding straight back into the Premiership. There are several steps that the Hammers should follow in order to make their second-tier spell a short one - here's a Moe handful of suggestions as to how the Hammers can escape the Championship sooner rather than later.

1. Sign a manager with experience and patience

Chris Hughton, while only having eighteen months' worth of head-man experience, not only has a smart and lucid football brain, but is used to the pressures of having to succeed on a threadbare budget. While Newcastle United threatened to go Chernobyl last season after being relegated, he successfully kept the dressing room together, made shrewd Championship-elite signings and encouraged the club's youth to prosper. He fully entrusted Andy Carroll with the centre-forward role and helped develop Nile Ranger into a player of promise. The Understated One is also used to dealing with larger-than-life owners, having spent sixteen months under the devious direction of Mike Ashley and Derek Lambias.

Other possibilities include Sam Allardyce (though whether he'd develop the youth or even be willing to take a second-divison job is questionable) or Steve McLaren. Update: McLaren has already ruled himself out of contention. January favourite Martin O'Neill is still in the running.

2. Expunge the deadwood

While Pablo Barrera hasn't lived up to post-World Cup expectations, he still could prove a good player. This is in direct contrast to many of ex-manager Avram Grant's transfer dealings, remarkable only in their ineffectiveness. None of Winston Reid, Frederic Piquionne, Robbie Keane or Wayne Bridge lived up to expectation while Victor Obinna was as spotty a painter with the DT's.

As for Kieron Dyer, Julien Faubert, Benni McCarthy or Luis Boa Morte? Puh-lease. While Obinna, Keane and Bridge are all loan signings and (most probably) will not be retained, the squad will need pruning in order to refresh and strengthen again. The squad wasn't the worst in the Premier League so Hammer fans should start 2011-12 with expectations of at least a playoff finish.

3. Expurgate any useless footballing philosophies

It's been a West Ham tradition for years to play attacking football, replete with creative wingers and forwards like Paolo Di Canio and John Hartson able to capitalise on their jinking runs. The West Ham board's first priority should now not be footballin gstyle but to yo-yo from the second tier to the first. To do so may require dispensing with any preconceived notions about "the West Ham way" and focus on results. This comes down to giving a manager who achieves results - Allardyce, anyone? - a free hand to implement his tactics, a measure of trust of which Gold and Sullivan have some repute.

4. Light a fire under the forwards

While Cole's struggled through a fair-to-poor season and may not even be at Upton Park next year, he could dominate the Championship. So could Demba Ba. While Newcastle United Kevin Nolan (and Andy Carroll, Jonas Gutierrez and Fabricio Coloccini) did it last year with startling success and for the Hammers to not only retrieve EPL status but remain there, they'll need goals. Sears has the potential and Cole has the comination of size and speed to become lethal in the Championship. Piquionne, if he's not sold, could also dominate in English football's lower reaches. Demba Ba also figures here if he's not sold - seven goals in 10 Premiership starts are encouraging figures.

5. Value for money

Scott Parker deserves better than the Championship, so he'll go. He'll have plenty of suitors, too. Robert Green would be an upgrade over at least half a dozen Premeirship custodians so is likely to sought after as well. Any influx of cash could be directed in several ways - but is likely to find it's way either into reducing the club's remarkable debt or investment in the squad. The secret to success - and admittedly this is easier said than done - is to pry top-tier talent away from mid-table Championship squads, they're on the right track. The Guardian has published a piece detailing what to expect, player-by-player.

6. Free the club's youth

All of Sears, Zavon Hines, Frank Nouble, Junior Stanislas, James Tomkins and Jordan Spence came through the club's youth academy. All played some part in this Premiership season or seasons past, albeit relatively small roles. They now have a chance to cement a position in the West Ham first-team squad, for better or worse.

The only recent yo-yo promotions have been by Newcastle, Birmingham City and West Bromwich Albion, none of whom invested heavily upon relegation. While they aren't currently at Premiership standard, they all have the ability to be that good - the chance to really stamp a position as their own should excite many of the youth in East London.

West Bromwich Albion FC: The Yo-Yo Effect

The noughties have presented us with the ultimate expression of the Yo-Yo team – West Bromwich Albion. Their thrify ownership have decided against risking the big bucks (sorry, pounds) required to maintain their Premiership status, so they've invested money in their squad only when both cost-effective and absolutely needed, then pocketed their parachute payments. They may as well change their club motto to “Without Squander”.

They've won or finished second in their last two Championship seasons. The season before that brought elimination in the Promotion Playoffs. Their squad changes minimally from Top to Second Tier. They are, for their market and sponsors, if not their fans, a successful club. So why don't more teams follow this model and ensure their own relative certainty?

One simple reason is overconfidence. If a club accomplish promotion from the Championship they are entitled to feel strong, as if they can take on the world. Generally, that's rather an inexperienced point of view, as much false bravado as anything. The Premiership is a major step up from the Championship as proved by the number of teams who go straight back down. Managerial or board overconfidence is the worst kind: the mentality of “All we need is one or two class signings” causes overreach and financial burdens a club in the Championship can't maintain. To bring in class signings, that player usually requires more money or more security than he already has, security that a relegation-threatened club is ill-placed to afford. If the worst happens and they drop, the club is stuck with a heavy contract – we call that “Doing a Hull” - or with a malcontent.

The second factor for WBA is that the players have been there before. Most have competed in both leagues know what is required in order to survive, even if they're incapable of meeting those requirements. Relegation is an obvious kick in the teeth but each goes into the following season aware that their club has the ability to bounce straight back up again. This knowledge provides a certain confidence that the demoted don't always have.

This common sense attitude seems commendable, but only a few squads have progressed from it. It provides stability for sure, but locks the clubs into a purgatory where their unable to succeed at the highest level yet perfectly able to fail should circumstances conspire one level down. But really, if you're making money – and the parachute payments are generous indeed – why would you risk that by overspending and in three years find yourself mid-table Championship? At a smaller club, success is no sure thing no matter what the investment. In football, there are no sure things unless they involve John Terry and an underwear model.