Di Canio turns up the contrast at Sunderland

In appointing Paolo Di Canio as Sunderland manager, owner Ellis Short not only fell victim to the “Contrast Theory” but has actively embraced it. 

The theory is simple, and has its origins in time immemorial.  When replacing an underperforming manager, simply make your next selection his polar opposite: freewheelers replace tacticians.  Teachers replace “player’s coaches”; experience dismissed for youth that presages change e’er longed-for.

Completely and utterly uncontroversial is superseded by … Paolo Di Canio.

This contrast doesn’t get much more pronounced than this week’s changeover at the helm of the Black Cats.  Martin O’Neill – dear, staid, true, predictable and downtrodden Martin O’Neill – is gone, replaced by the fiery Di Canio.  For much of the season the Mackems have appeared short of ideas: O’Neill has been chief among the bewildered as his tried-and-tested methods shuffled his emotionless team towards relegation.

After an initial dead-cat bounce, the old coaching methods that O’Neill had employed with success over two decades with Wycombe, Leicester City, Celtic and Aston Villa proved ineffectual at Sunderland.  As his men became almost entirely inoffensive, O’Neill appeared a forlorn man adhering to tactics well past their sell-by date: defenders stop the ball, forwards shoot it and midfielders move the ball between the two as efficiently as possible. 

This theory still holds water – just, and if you squint – but, in practicality, is often exposed by the more fluid systems now en vogue throughout the EPL.

Di Canio is everything that Martin O’Neill was not.  He favours a remarkably fit team of young, hungry players.  Although he often played 4-4-2 at Swindon Town, he enjoyed the most success after shifting to an unorthodox formation.  He is flexible, young and hungry: three traits which hardly described O’Neill’s Wearside tenure.

He is also unflinchingly controversial, although references to his political beliefs may be somewhat overstated.

However, whether Di Canio’s furious affect will work in the Premiership is still up for debate - the spectacular fallout from another talent of the nineties, Paul Ince, after moving from League One to the top flight ended amidst a flurry of self-styled “Guv’nor” tactics which endeared him to neither his players, nor his employers.

Ellis Short has gambled that a controversial extrovert will be more effective in dodging relegation than persevering with a man who patently enjoyed only middling success.  O’Neill was an appointment tailored specifically to the situation in which Sunderland found themselves seventeen months past; Di Canio is a man chosen directly to address this predicament with this playing group.  How that dressing-shed cadre responds is now, quite literally, the £64 million question.

What next for West Ham?

This weekend, three of Europe's more famous clubs - Sampdoria, Frankfurt and West Ham - were condemned to the second divisions of their respective countries. Perhaps the smallest reverberations came with West Ham's demotion: the Hammers struggled all season long under a hangdog, lame-dog manager and if the same the lack of spirit shown by several senior West Ham figures is reproduced next year, it could indicate a lengthy stay for the club in the second tier. Popular expectation is that the squad will be gutted as several key players depart: Football Writers' Association Player of the Year Scott Parker, the out of contract Matthew Upson and goalkeeper Robert Green are likely to lead the exodus.

But all is not lost: they still plan to take over the Olympic Stadium after 2012 and Messrs Gold & Sullivan have committed to funding the club through it's lower-league jaunt. With such basic groundwork established reasonably, West Ham now face the prospect of rebounding straight back into the Premiership. There are several steps that the Hammers should follow in order to make their second-tier spell a short one - here's a Moe handful of suggestions as to how the Hammers can escape the Championship sooner rather than later.

1. Sign a manager with experience and patience

Chris Hughton, while only having eighteen months' worth of head-man experience, not only has a smart and lucid football brain, but is used to the pressures of having to succeed on a threadbare budget. While Newcastle United threatened to go Chernobyl last season after being relegated, he successfully kept the dressing room together, made shrewd Championship-elite signings and encouraged the club's youth to prosper. He fully entrusted Andy Carroll with the centre-forward role and helped develop Nile Ranger into a player of promise. The Understated One is also used to dealing with larger-than-life owners, having spent sixteen months under the devious direction of Mike Ashley and Derek Lambias.

Other possibilities include Sam Allardyce (though whether he'd develop the youth or even be willing to take a second-divison job is questionable) or Steve McLaren. Update: McLaren has already ruled himself out of contention. January favourite Martin O'Neill is still in the running.

2. Expunge the deadwood

While Pablo Barrera hasn't lived up to post-World Cup expectations, he still could prove a good player. This is in direct contrast to many of ex-manager Avram Grant's transfer dealings, remarkable only in their ineffectiveness. None of Winston Reid, Frederic Piquionne, Robbie Keane or Wayne Bridge lived up to expectation while Victor Obinna was as spotty a painter with the DT's.

As for Kieron Dyer, Julien Faubert, Benni McCarthy or Luis Boa Morte? Puh-lease. While Obinna, Keane and Bridge are all loan signings and (most probably) will not be retained, the squad will need pruning in order to refresh and strengthen again. The squad wasn't the worst in the Premier League so Hammer fans should start 2011-12 with expectations of at least a playoff finish.

3. Expurgate any useless footballing philosophies

It's been a West Ham tradition for years to play attacking football, replete with creative wingers and forwards like Paolo Di Canio and John Hartson able to capitalise on their jinking runs. The West Ham board's first priority should now not be footballin gstyle but to yo-yo from the second tier to the first. To do so may require dispensing with any preconceived notions about "the West Ham way" and focus on results. This comes down to giving a manager who achieves results - Allardyce, anyone? - a free hand to implement his tactics, a measure of trust of which Gold and Sullivan have some repute.

4. Light a fire under the forwards

While Cole's struggled through a fair-to-poor season and may not even be at Upton Park next year, he could dominate the Championship. So could Demba Ba. While Newcastle United Kevin Nolan (and Andy Carroll, Jonas Gutierrez and Fabricio Coloccini) did it last year with startling success and for the Hammers to not only retrieve EPL status but remain there, they'll need goals. Sears has the potential and Cole has the comination of size and speed to become lethal in the Championship. Piquionne, if he's not sold, could also dominate in English football's lower reaches. Demba Ba also figures here if he's not sold - seven goals in 10 Premiership starts are encouraging figures.

5. Value for money

Scott Parker deserves better than the Championship, so he'll go. He'll have plenty of suitors, too. Robert Green would be an upgrade over at least half a dozen Premeirship custodians so is likely to sought after as well. Any influx of cash could be directed in several ways - but is likely to find it's way either into reducing the club's remarkable debt or investment in the squad. The secret to success - and admittedly this is easier said than done - is to pry top-tier talent away from mid-table Championship squads, they're on the right track. The Guardian has published a piece detailing what to expect, player-by-player.

6. Free the club's youth

All of Sears, Zavon Hines, Frank Nouble, Junior Stanislas, James Tomkins and Jordan Spence came through the club's youth academy. All played some part in this Premiership season or seasons past, albeit relatively small roles. They now have a chance to cement a position in the West Ham first-team squad, for better or worse.

The only recent yo-yo promotions have been by Newcastle, Birmingham City and West Bromwich Albion, none of whom invested heavily upon relegation. While they aren't currently at Premiership standard, they all have the ability to be that good - the chance to really stamp a position as their own should excite many of the youth in East London.

Bent's goals will save (or cost) Aston Villa

Darren Bent looks likely to seal a £20+ million transfer from Sunderland to Aston Villa within the next forty-eight hours. From the outside, it’s when and not if the ex-Tottenham and Charlton forward departs the Northeast after he handed in his second written transfer request of the term - this request follows a rejected plea in August. Gaffer Steve Bruce sounds resigned to losing him and England’s The Guardian reports the Mackem manager stunned both by Bent’s desire to leave, and the amount at which Villa value the hitman.

It’s rumoured that an initial £18 million bid was rejected by the Mackems as they held out for a bid over milestone figure 20 millio. Add-ons have been suggested raising the deal to around £24M but the final shape of the transaction is still murky. Given Sunderland’s history in the transfer market – they rejected a £16 million bid for striker Kevin Phillips in the early years of this century only to sell him for £3 million two years later – it’s likely they can’t resist the lure of Gerard Houllier’s lucre and Bent’s future lies at the Birmingham club.

Usually unshy of expressing his admiration for the people and fans of the Northeast, Bent’s season so far has been a pale imitation of his outstanding first year on Wearside. His relationship with the region may have soured for good when his car was vandalised by Newcastle fans while shopping and whispers suggest the striker’s reputed fragile headspace has become an issue again after being overlooked for England’s World Cup campaign after his 2009-10 tour de force. He started brightly this season, scoring seven times by September’s end but since then has only tinkled the twine four times amidst a flurry of speculation regarding his happiness in the region. His starting position has been shared/usurped by offseason signing Asamoah Gyan and loanee Danny Welbeck, so it’s hardly a shock Bent’s head has been turned by a club closer to his Cambridgeshire roots.

In all probability Bent has played his last game in Sunderland’s red and white stripes and will leave the club he’s helped build from relegation fodder into challenging for European honours. He will re-inject himself into a situation with which he is very familiar - the relegation battle – having waged similar wars with Charlton, Tottenham and Sunderland. Aston Villa sit outside the drop zone only on goals scored, their goal difference mirroring that of 18^th-placed Wigan at -15. Under Martin O`Neill the Clarets challenged regularly for a top four berth but since the Northern Irishman`s departure, front men Gabby Agbonlahor and John Carew have been perpetually injured while reserve Emile Heskey scores goals with the same frequency as sightings of Halley’s Comet. Given the mixed returns of his youth policy, Houllier has identified a need for goals – quickly – and is gambling much of the dosh the club received from selling James Milner on a Bent revival and him leading the club to survival in an incredibly even Premiership season.

It’s an enormous gamble by the Frenchman – betting Bent’s recent goal drought comes from a lack of supply from midfield – and the manager is riding the hope that his wide men (Ashley Young, Stewart Downing and Marc Albrighton) can provide the ammunition the twenty-six year old needs to fire Villa to safety. With only sixteen EPL clashes remaining, DB “The Truth” will probably need to score somewhere around 7-10 goals or more to ensure safe haven for the Midlands club, at a composite cost of about £3 million per goal. When considering the money in top level football – and how much Villa would lose if relegated – that rate is unquestionably a bargain.

Should they survive.

If, however, the young Clarets can`t arrest their slide into the Championship, they will be forced to sell this new star at cut-price rates. The gamble is on display for all to see: how Bent settles into his new footballing home could cost Villa 18, 20, 24 or even 60 million pounds. Darren Bent will leave Sunderland to become Aston Villa`s talisman, for better or for worse.

Aston Villa FC: Can you fight off interest from bigger clubs long term?

This issue has come to a gead as today Martin O'Neill has resigned from Aston Villa. No reasons were given in his official statement but it is safe to assume that the limited funds made available for him to better his results over the past three years was foremost in his thinking when handing in his notice.

He's done particularly well during his tenure in Birmingham – beating Top Four clubs and threatening for Champions League positions much of the last couple of seasons. But in the end his demise has come as many predicted, over transfer budgets and support for his ambitions.

O'Neill is a shrewd evaluator of talent and has spent his available money wisely. That wisdom has then been hijacked by the larger clubs as one by one each of Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham have targeted his purchases to enhance their own squads. As talent exits, new talent must be brought in and over time this must get tiring.

Managers at the so-called “second level” clubs like Everton and Villa deep down must know they fight a losing battle. Consistently having to fight wears one down. Where in a manager's early years they can look upon this exodus of talent as an opportunity for refreshment and change, as time wears on it can and does string the boss more and more tautly. Where once was belief in his team's ability to cope now lies despair at the constant nature of these marauders. It's nearly a universal truth that as one tires, one gets tetchy. That tetchiness then reflects in how the next issue forced onto our plate is dealt with.

For Aston Villa, there's nothing wrong with holding out to get the correct price for a player, especially when the buyer is Manchester City and one of your chief competitors for Champions League football. But if that stance turns the player against you, it's a battle that has no victors. Play him and risk halfhearted performances and constant distracting speculation. Don't play them and watch results suffer.

You can't fight off interest from clubs indefinitely, it just doesn't happen. If a player wants to go, generally they find a way to make it happen. The best you can do is ensure you get back appropriate funds and invest them wisely, only to watch managers disappear.