Three things: Andy Carroll, Liverpool saviour?

Three talking points from the English Premier League this weekend:

The times, they are a-changing

Yesterday, I found one of my all-time favourite lucky finds – an old World Football magazine which proudly boasted to contain full 2006-07 squad lists for every major European league.

As I sat back to enjoy again articles like “Gamble on Govou gets France going” and “Sticky start [at Poland] for Beenhakker”, it struck me at the amount the shape of sport has changed in as little as five years.  That year was a particularly interesting one: Roy Keane earned a reputation as the games’ best young manager as he led Sunderland from bottom of the Championship to runaway winners at his first attempt; Red Star Belgrade sold star striker Nikola Zigic to Racing Santander (who has later moved to Valencia and Birmingham City); while the “Five Young Stars of the Copa Libertadores” were Rafael Sobis, Fabiano Eller, Wason Renteria, Leandro Somoza and Cristian Riveros.

The most striking example of how much the game has progressed is in the amount of player turnover at English clubs.  The table below details the 2006-07 English Premier League squads and how much they have changed over the subsequent five years.

Club	06-07 squad	Players in 11-12 squad	06-07 Players on loan	Total players still in EPL	Relegations
Arsenal	32	7	2	15
Aston Villa	24	2	0	10
Blackburn	29	3	0	6
Bolton	23	3	0	8
Charlton	31	0	0	2	**
Chelsea	20	9	0	13
Everton	26	7	1	13
Fulham	27	0	0	3
Liverpool	27	7	1	14
Man City	26	3	0	8
Man Utd	22	9	0	16
M’Brough	29	4	0	9	*
Newcastle	21	3	0	10	*
Portsmouth	26	2	0	3	*
Reading	26	1	0	5	*
Sheff Utd	32	3	0	2	**
Tottenham	27	6	1	12
Watford	30	3	0	4	*
West Ham	28	3	0	10	*
Wigan	25	2	0	8

Keep in mind this was before set 25-man squads, Financial Fair Play and numerous debt crises and takeovers.  The squads are as listed in “World Soccer” Magazine, October 2006 edition and can include promising youth team players.

With the number of players still in the EPL after five years, it’s not surprising that Watford, Sheffield United and Charlton were relegated that season.

Evolving football philosophies

Noted philosopher Marge Simpson once said "we can't afford to shop at a store which has a philosophy". Philosophy is nice, but, like everything, subject to the dreaded Cost/Benefit analysis.

In fact, "footballing philosophy" is used only rarely to describe the methods of managers like Tony Pulis or Sam Allardyce and is reserved for so-called purists like Owen Coyle or Arsene Wenger. Almost by definition, pragmatists - including even Jose Mourinho - are lauded only for results.

Certain fans expect their squad to play a certain way - not necessarily as a result of tactical choice, but because "we've always done it". Because success was once achieved playing a certain way, success must always be attained thus. Such an attitude results not in top-four expectations of success (seen by outsiders as "We deserve it because we're United/Liverpool/Arsenal"), but of fans' yearning for glory days - and players - past (the "He's not as good as Warren Barton" attitude).

The Barton reference is deliberate, not just because he's one of the faces of Fox Soccer, but also because his greatest success was as part of Keegan's Newcastle during the mid-nineties. It was this team, with Alan Shearer as it's centre(forward)piece, that totally and indelibly inspired the flawed logic of the "Cult of no. 9", a spearhead supplied by tricksy wide men.

West Ham, the club of Bobby Moore, loved the idea of West Ham football: thrusting wing play and the ball spraying about like Darren Fletcher on a good day. Though times tough and good, the Hammers could be counted on for moments of magic, even when they featured John Hartson.

At both clubs, a transformation has taken place.

Subject to managerial and personnel changes, both these clubs have reinvented themselves. The Hammers did so through choice after being dumped into the second division. After dispensing with the popular but perhaps overmatched Gianfranco Zola, they employed Avram Grant, a man with as much personality as yoghurt. Grant, the only man to not register a score on a Myers-Briggs test, couldn't inspire the Hammers to play good football and when the second division beckoned, pragmatism reigned.

Their club has evolved, albeit by the choice of Messrs Gold & Sullivan, through a perceived necessity. In true Darwinian fashion, the Hammers of 2010-11 needed to evolve in order to survive - perhaps even as an entity, given a perilous financial state. The catalyst was the appointment of Allardyce, known as the ultimate long-ball merchant.

Evolution can be violent, inflammatory change; a force of nature that we only mostly understand. West Ham's evolution promises to be just that. The response of an organism to its environment occurring in the far reaches of the Northeast takes a different form: that of slowly adapting current equipment in order to thrive.

At Newcastle, it wasn't relegation or a change of manager which inspired their move away from a tried footballing philosophy, but the sale of Shearer's successor and Geordie icon-in-waiting, Andy Carroll. When Kenny Dalglish offered 35 million pounds for the next Tyneside messiah, Mike Ashley and Alan Pardew's poker skills bluffed the Reds up to a very suitable price and then cashed in.

They did so knowing that while Carroll could be the best English centre-forward of the next decade, offers of that calibre don't come along often for unproven commodities. This left them with a line led by the likes of Demba Ba (who's knees have failed more medical tests than Crippen), Leon Best and Shola Ameobi - and pre-empted midfielders Cheick Tiote, Yohan Cabaye and - hopefully - Hatem Ben-Arfa into supplying the goals.

Alan Pardew, courtesy: telegraph.co.uk

This lineup is given so much impetus from the centre of the park - rather than, as Toon history dictates, out wide - and has worked well so far. Though they're not expected to stay there, the Magpies sit in fifth position - after adapting their game style to suit their players, rather than the reverse.

Evolution occurs in order for a species to survive and thrive in a new, changing environment. It can be spontaneous, is always reactive (rather than proactive) and always benefits the evolutionary organism in the short term - just think of the dodo. Questions then, are asked in the long term with the benefit of hindsight.

So it's a lot like football.

Survival of the fittest (wealthiest?)

Poetic - sometimes, if we're feeling really good. Evocative? Occasionally. Artistic - hardly. But as we mentioned on Wednesday, the graphic below is about as artistic as Balanced Sports get.

click graphic to enlarge

It plots the survival rates of teams promoted to the Premiership across the past decade and tells a stark tale. While Blackburn, Bolton and Fulham have survived - some would even say thrived - at the top level, the tales of greatest success are to be found in the early part of the past decade when they were joined by Manchester City, Portsmouth, West Ham and Wigan in establishing themselves as Premier League entities.

Of 30 teams promoted, thirteen have gone straight back down.

Elimated after	1 Year	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Teams	13	6**	1*	2*	1*	1	2*	0	0	1*	3***

* Denotes number of teams still in Premier League.

A "Survival Analysis" on such a small sample size would be ineffective given the group loses nearly 50% of it's members after a first year relegation. But were we to examine how many clubs had a five-year survival rate, exactly one promoted club in three stays in the division for five years or more. That means of the 21 teams who could have been in the Premier League for five years by this season (ie. all those teams promoted 2007 or before), seven have survived that length of time.

However, should we withdraw those clubs arriving B.R. (before Roman (Abramovich), who for better or worse changed football forever with his petro-roubles) - that number drops slightly to 26.67%. However, this also includes the recently relegated clubs West Ham United and Portsmouth, who nearly bankrupted themselves with exorbitant wages, the global financial crisis, multiple court appearances and other sundry expenses.

This proves once again that Stoke manager Tony Pulis is correct in his thinking: that three seasons of consolidation should be enough to establish oneself.  With prudent investment - leading to crucial squad refreshment - Premier League status can be retained.  It's all so simple, isn't it?

Not really.  A team must make the choice to thrive and perhaps risk financial crisis (cf. Portsmouth - one FA Cup for debt so large it makes Greece smirk) or simply enjoy an EPL existence, like current relegation favourites Wigan Athletic.  The chasm between first and second divisions hasn't been this great in some time, if ever.  

Even the glory days of Promotion at the turn of the millennium weren't as straightforward as it would seem.  While Bolton Wanderers operated on a shoestring and Sam Allardyce's Route-1 football, Fulham and Manchester City have both benefited from the largesse of a financial benefactor.  As Everton's Bill Kenwright would attest, it's no longer enough to just get to the league and try your chances. 

The two promotion successes of recent years - Sunderland and Stoke City - followed the same model; backed by owners Ellis Short and Peter Coates' combination of fiscal prudency and healthy hip pockets. Along with Wolves, whose finances are also healthy, this trio look likely to maintain this one-in-three average of promoted sides remaining in the division at the expense of smaller clubs and hamstrung owners.

Where to now for Blackpool?

The third in a three-part series detailing possible next steps for the relegated Premier League teams.

Blackpool's one-season jaunt in the Premiership, perhaps likely always to be record-setting, has come to a close. The Tangerines did set records, but not the ones that many predicted at the start of their top flight campaign. Blackpool boasted the smallest wage bill seen in the EPL for several years as well, capping their players' deals at a (comparatively meagre) ₤10,000 per week. They also scored a Premier League record number of goals by a relegated team and may have had one of the better records in league history of any relegated side against the division's elite.

As expected, Blackpool were eventually relegated. But they brought a spirit to the Premiership which is going to be missed and English fans are hoping that Swansea City can bring some of the same verve in their Premier League bow next year. It's arguable that while Blackpool expected this and prepared for life back in the Championship by banking much of their TV revenues and are likely to do so again with their parachute payments.

Let's take a look at how Blackpool can bounce back into the Premier League:

Blow the whole thing up and start again

Sheffield United went down this year after three years of trying to replace their Premiership squad on a bit-by-bit basis. They came out of EPL relegation in reasonable financial shape, given their West Ham settlement and reinvested part of those monies in an attempt to recapture EPL status. The gamble - like many of their signings - didn't pay off and League One now hosts Steel City derbies. With Blackpool unlikely to be able to retain their better players (Adam, Campbell, Gilks and Crainey), perhaps it's best to bid a fond farewell to the team that overachieved the last two years. Chalk them down to a beautiful, happy memory and move on.

This would allow the Seasiders to maintain their business model of not overpaying wages or transfer fees, which in turn would give manager Ian Holloway the chance to build again from the ground up around a combination of Matt Phillips, Elliot Grandin, Gary Taylor-Fletcher, perhaps Luke Varney and the everpresent Ian Evatt. This would again be a long process, but with responsible use of their parachute payments they could raise their wage ceiling by ₤3-5K from their current ₤10,000 ceiling and employ better quality players. This challenge is one of building the club from a small-scale Championship one to a middle-tier team capable of challenging year-in, year-out yet still with the finances to retain their best players.

In essence, this would keep to Karl Oyston's original plan of building a club, not a team.

but for instant gratification:

Sell Charlie Adam and replace him

Adam was crucial to everything Blackpool has done over the past two years. His scoring in the Championship (18 goals and 8 assists) allowed the Tangerines the chance to cream Cardiff in the Playoffs and he followed that dose with 12 EPL goals and 8 assists. Sir Alex Ferguson, Kenny Dalglish and Harry Redknapp are all admirers - even if only two of those three are actually interested in bringing him in. He'll go this Summer. The man 'Olly signed in January to replace him, Andy Reid, ex of Sunderland has already departed.

Chances are Adam will fetch somewhere between ₤5-10 million, significantly below the rumoured ₤14 million asking price in January. Reinvesting some of that money in a potential replacement - the first names that stream to mind are Joe Ledley, Kris Commons and Lewis McGugan, all potentially interested in a move but hard to get - in Adam's central role could go some way towards ensuring another Tangerine top-10 finish. Likely though, as DJ Campbell, Stephen Crainey and Matt Gilks will follow Adam out the door, it's possible Holloway decides to revamp the entire Blackpool squad and with it, alter the way they play their game.

Try to keep DJ Campbell

For so long, Dudley Campbell has been earmarked "Championship Only - Leave behind when promoted". After thirteen EPL goals, his publicist has tagged him available and he could move if the price is right. He - and his services - are needed in the Northwest, so Chairman Oyston should try and retain him. If they can't, the recently released Kevin Phillips could prove a bargain-basement type replacement for his fox-in-the-box role and Marlon King has been good for Coventry City since his mid-season arrival.

Reinforce the defense, however, whenever, with whatever. Use 4x2s if needed.

Blackpool leaked goals partly because of their up-and-down style of play, and partly because their defence simply wasn't up to Premiership standards. Ian Evatt, wholehearted trier that he is, just doesn't cut the mustard as a EPL centre-back. How about testing Burnley's resolve for Clark Carlisle? Perhaps ask a few pointed questions of promoted QPR's spare central defenders as well. As for full-backs, see what Cardiff are doing with the disposable Paul Quinn or how much Coventry City really wants to keep Richard Wood.

The task is harder for Blackpool than for West Ham or Birmingham simply because they don't have the same foundations for growth as their relegated comrades. On the bright side, however, they don't have any of the crippling debt which is likely to play a key role in the future fortunes of the other two clubs, meaning that they are in a prime position to build a lasting entity rather than embark on a short-term "Premiership or (literally) bust" campaign.

What next for West Ham?

This weekend, three of Europe's more famous clubs - Sampdoria, Frankfurt and West Ham - were condemned to the second divisions of their respective countries. Perhaps the smallest reverberations came with West Ham's demotion: the Hammers struggled all season long under a hangdog, lame-dog manager and if the same the lack of spirit shown by several senior West Ham figures is reproduced next year, it could indicate a lengthy stay for the club in the second tier. Popular expectation is that the squad will be gutted as several key players depart: Football Writers' Association Player of the Year Scott Parker, the out of contract Matthew Upson and goalkeeper Robert Green are likely to lead the exodus.

But all is not lost: they still plan to take over the Olympic Stadium after 2012 and Messrs Gold & Sullivan have committed to funding the club through it's lower-league jaunt. With such basic groundwork established reasonably, West Ham now face the prospect of rebounding straight back into the Premiership. There are several steps that the Hammers should follow in order to make their second-tier spell a short one - here's a Moe handful of suggestions as to how the Hammers can escape the Championship sooner rather than later.

1. Sign a manager with experience and patience

Chris Hughton, while only having eighteen months' worth of head-man experience, not only has a smart and lucid football brain, but is used to the pressures of having to succeed on a threadbare budget. While Newcastle United threatened to go Chernobyl last season after being relegated, he successfully kept the dressing room together, made shrewd Championship-elite signings and encouraged the club's youth to prosper. He fully entrusted Andy Carroll with the centre-forward role and helped develop Nile Ranger into a player of promise. The Understated One is also used to dealing with larger-than-life owners, having spent sixteen months under the devious direction of Mike Ashley and Derek Lambias.

Other possibilities include Sam Allardyce (though whether he'd develop the youth or even be willing to take a second-divison job is questionable) or Steve McLaren. Update: McLaren has already ruled himself out of contention. January favourite Martin O'Neill is still in the running.

2. Expunge the deadwood

While Pablo Barrera hasn't lived up to post-World Cup expectations, he still could prove a good player. This is in direct contrast to many of ex-manager Avram Grant's transfer dealings, remarkable only in their ineffectiveness. None of Winston Reid, Frederic Piquionne, Robbie Keane or Wayne Bridge lived up to expectation while Victor Obinna was as spotty a painter with the DT's.

As for Kieron Dyer, Julien Faubert, Benni McCarthy or Luis Boa Morte? Puh-lease. While Obinna, Keane and Bridge are all loan signings and (most probably) will not be retained, the squad will need pruning in order to refresh and strengthen again. The squad wasn't the worst in the Premier League so Hammer fans should start 2011-12 with expectations of at least a playoff finish.

3. Expurgate any useless footballing philosophies

It's been a West Ham tradition for years to play attacking football, replete with creative wingers and forwards like Paolo Di Canio and John Hartson able to capitalise on their jinking runs. The West Ham board's first priority should now not be footballin gstyle but to yo-yo from the second tier to the first. To do so may require dispensing with any preconceived notions about "the West Ham way" and focus on results. This comes down to giving a manager who achieves results - Allardyce, anyone? - a free hand to implement his tactics, a measure of trust of which Gold and Sullivan have some repute.

4. Light a fire under the forwards

While Cole's struggled through a fair-to-poor season and may not even be at Upton Park next year, he could dominate the Championship. So could Demba Ba. While Newcastle United Kevin Nolan (and Andy Carroll, Jonas Gutierrez and Fabricio Coloccini) did it last year with startling success and for the Hammers to not only retrieve EPL status but remain there, they'll need goals. Sears has the potential and Cole has the comination of size and speed to become lethal in the Championship. Piquionne, if he's not sold, could also dominate in English football's lower reaches. Demba Ba also figures here if he's not sold - seven goals in 10 Premiership starts are encouraging figures.

5. Value for money

Scott Parker deserves better than the Championship, so he'll go. He'll have plenty of suitors, too. Robert Green would be an upgrade over at least half a dozen Premeirship custodians so is likely to sought after as well. Any influx of cash could be directed in several ways - but is likely to find it's way either into reducing the club's remarkable debt or investment in the squad. The secret to success - and admittedly this is easier said than done - is to pry top-tier talent away from mid-table Championship squads, they're on the right track. The Guardian has published a piece detailing what to expect, player-by-player.

6. Free the club's youth

All of Sears, Zavon Hines, Frank Nouble, Junior Stanislas, James Tomkins and Jordan Spence came through the club's youth academy. All played some part in this Premiership season or seasons past, albeit relatively small roles. They now have a chance to cement a position in the West Ham first-team squad, for better or worse.

The only recent yo-yo promotions have been by Newcastle, Birmingham City and West Bromwich Albion, none of whom invested heavily upon relegation. While they aren't currently at Premiership standard, they all have the ability to be that good - the chance to really stamp a position as their own should excite many of the youth in East London.

Balanced Sports on Soccerlens & The Roar

Balanced Sports has been published on Australian sports opinion website The Roar, with pieces by Matthew Wood on Bobby Davis and how the 2011 edition of the Geelong FC being "Crap Invincibles".

We've also been published on Soccerlens, detailing how West Ham can bounce straight back up from relegation to the Championship.

Goal Difference crucial for Premiership survival

The relegation battle this term in the Premiership has become increasingly intense. With Manchester United seemly stumbling towards the title as Arsenal and Manchester City reel off-course, the bottom of the table proves now to be the more intriguing sub-competition; a race no club or fan wants to win.

As we examined last week which Championship clubs from may take their place among English football's elite, the scrap for who replaces them in the second tier is in full flight. Seemingly European candidates two months ago, Sunderland are dropping like an action-movie elevator, while Blackpool's astonishing start to the season came undone at about exactly the same time as Charlie Adam's Liverpool move was rejected. On the other hand, Wolves have proved the most plucky of all the teams in the relegation zone yet still prop up the table, hit hard by injury to target-man Kevin Doyle.

What confuses this situation more than in years past is that there are no "certainties" for the drop. Last year Portsmouth failed to break twenty points (thanks among other things to a nine-point deduction for going into administration) and in 2008, Derby County broke Sunderland's record from 2006 for the fewest points in a season. There's no such luck for clubs hovering outside the zone this year - this season there are no easybeats. The entire bottom half of the Premiership table sits within one "six-pointer" of the drop zone.

When comparing this season to the previous six, there really is no precedent to the tightness in the relegation battle we see this year. In every other year, with the exception of 2009, there has been one club cut adrift at the bottom of the league. In 2009, that club was West Bromwich Albion, who rallied mildly at the tail-end of the season to finish with the same points tally as nineteenth-placed Middlesbrough.

Another trend over recent years has been that the tighter the relegation battle has become, the more impact Goal Difference has on which clubs survive. In 2007 and 2008, eight clubs each year finished the season within six points of relegation - or one crucial win against a fellow straggler. Excepting Derby County in 2008 (who finished the season with 11 points and an all time goal difference record of -69), it's easy to see that the average Goal Difference of relegation-threatened clubs decreases as the number of clubs "in trouble" increases. We've defined "threatened" as a club within six points of the drop zone.

Season	Clubs within 6 points of relegation zone	Average Goal Difference of threatened clubs
2010-11 (5 or 6 games remain)	10	-13.7
2009-10	5	-34.8
2008-09	5	-24.8
2007-08	8	-36.67 (incl. Derby County) -18.71 (excl. Derby Cty)
2006-07	8	-21.38
2005-06	4	-29.25
2004-05	5	-23.6

Derby County can be excluded because they are a statistical outlier - their season-long goal difference a whole 60% worse than any club's during the past seven years. Since they lost almost every game (season record 1-8-29) we can assume everyone took points off them. This assumption may not necessarily be correct, but statistically speaking, it is safe.

As you can see, the tighter a relegation battle gets, the tighter clubs tend to become - with the possible exception of Ian Holloway's Blackpool. If more club become involved in a relegation battle, it leads to lower average goal differences across those threatened teams. This season has produced another statistical anomaly which is interesting (but not very interesting) - Mark Hughes' Fulham are the only "threatened" club in seven years to boast a positive goal difference (+1).

Therefore, we can say safely with approximately 85% of the season complete, the 2010-11 goal differences figures are (on average) probably going to be the lowest of the past seven years. Extrapolated, these mean figures could be as low as -15.9 over the course of the entire season. If we use Goal Difference as a marker of how intense a relegation battle is, then this relegation battle is (statistically) about 20% more intense than the previous most intense one in 2008, involving Birmingham, Reading, Fulham and Bolton.

Can Gold & Sullivan thrive at West Ham?

The Davids, Gold and Sullivan, have been involved in English football for several years now. In partnership they bought out the controlling stake in Birmingham City FC in 1993 after both independently made their fortunes, the adult movie business prime among their earners.

After protracted back and forth with Hong Kong businessman Carson Yeung, The Davids sold Birmingham City in 2009, with Sullivan citing a lack of support from the Birmingham Council and from fans as major reasons for their departure. The pair then returned to their East End roots, purchasing 50% of West Ham United, the club both had supported as boys. Upon completing the purchase they then expressed their surprise at the levels of unreported debt at the club.

The Davids have a highly visible public profile. Both are successful businessmen and when asked, will spout opinion on their asset - the football club. According to the ESPN Soccernet podcast, when one journalist approached press time without a story, he would just call David Sullivan and all would be well. Of course as owners, they are entitled to comment upon the health of their asset but football matters have long been considered taboo for non-football executives, a line that they've crossed repeatedly over the past few years. Last season as Gianfranco Zola's tenure as West Ham manager very publicly wound down, it seemed one David was forever refusing to guarantee Zola his position while the other would appear more supportive.

Their immediate subordinate is Karren Brady, who the pair appointed as Managing Director of Birmingham City in 1993. Then only twenty-three and the first woman in such a position in the top flight of English football, Brady has parlayed her undoubted ability and business nous into considerable fame, attracting awards as diverse as recognitions from the Queen, to being voted one of FHM's Sexiest Women of the Year. She's another high-profile type, writing newspaper columns and serving as Alan Sugar's assistant in the UK version of The Apprentice. Brady, now the Vice-Chairman of West Ham, is known in the business as a "sacker" - though the stats don't really back that up, with Birmingham City only having four permanent bosses on her watch.

Can such a visible and vocal triumvirate promote long-term success at a West Ham? Outspoken opponents of the debt level in English football, The Davids are fiscally responsible but have also spent on the transfer market, meaning thrift isn't their ultimate watchword. No doubt their business acumen is keenly tuned but during their time at West Ham they've been guilty of speaking before seeing the full ramifications of their words. Though the situation is unquestionably fraught with a precipitous fiscal position, manager Avram Grant has been in the gun for several weeks as a young Hammers squad sits in the relegation zone, with a recent run of four wins from seven unable to bring about the dreaded "Vote of Confidence".

With such an unstable club, don't such public comments just undermine a manager's credibility and control within the club? If meetings are held, as reported, on a near-weekly basis to discuss a manager's future then surely players are less likely to respond to a dead man walking? And with The Davids and Karren refusing to promote stability - deliberately or not - in the club by supporting or firing the gaffer, then levels of indecision rise to an almost criminal level. Like most people, players value certainty when it comes to their future lives and careers. Fear of this future doesn't allow anyone to perform to their best.

The issue isn't if The Davids can run a football club - that was proved during their time in the Second City. The issue is whether they are aware that their public profile could be damaging the club's chances of Premiership survival, and and if so, are they are willing to sacrifice their right to speech if it aids the club's chances? They should heed the example of Newcastle United's achievements when a formerly bombastic board shut their mouths and allowed a quieter manager space to operate.

Life with The Davids and Karren is always interesting. For the foreseeable future, it should remain so.

'Tis the Season

... to sack managers.

Blackburn's Sam Allardyce is the latest manager to be given his pink P45 slip, made redundant by the new ownership of the northwest club, the Indian Poultry company Venky's. Early tips suggested he was removed due to a conflict between the club's ambitions - a fifth-placed finish next term - and their transfer ambitions - five million available and two guys they'd strongly suggested he buy.

The club's new chair, Anuradha Desai, spoke to ESPN Soccernet in an attempt to dispel those rumours but rumblings persist they are keen on Middlesbrough's Scottish striker Kris Boyd and San Jose's flamboyant Brazilian Geovanni. All reports of the firing mentioned meetings between board and manager had left both sides malcontent but if we believe that Allardyce's reaction to being instructed who to buy wasn't the reason for his departure, then suddenly reasons for Big Sam's termination aren't apparent. Blackburn have performed well, if not overpoweringly in the league and hadn't spent money on players for over a year. Allardyce's development of highly rated youngsters Steven Nzonzi and Phil Jones could well pay dividends as they may soon be snaffled by big clubs as each approaches their national team squad.

He may well be replaced permanently by his number two, Steve Kean, who has taken temporary charge of Rovers, as Venky's has stated they're looking for a British manager. This places Chris Hughton, recently of Newcastle United, in the frame and habitual candidates Sven Goran Eriksson and Diego Maradona mercifully ruled out. This came as part of a statement in which they floated a possible "X-factor" type audition-come-scouting process that could be turned into a TV show, a project already tried in Australia.

The man "better suited to managing Real Madrid or Inter" may though fall on his feet. A specialist in avoiding relegation who turned a bunch of also-rans into over-achievers at Bolton, he may have a ready-made challenge at West Ham where boss Avram Grant has reportedly been given two games to save both his job and the Hammers' season. West Ham have been almost uniformly awful this term despite captain Scott Parker playing out of his skin and youthful promise from Junior Stanislas. A proto-Allardyce, take-charge type would be perfect should the Israeli that David James calls "Yoda" receive his marching orders. Quiet Man Hughton has also been strongly linked as the preferred candidate for Messrs Gold & Sullivan due to his experience last year, where he took Newcastle back to the Premiership in their first attempt.

The Hammers' steadfastness at the bottom of the table is a slight puzzle given they appear more talented - if paper thin - than several of their competitors for the three relegation spots. Between last season with Portsmouth and West Ham this year, Grant's League record in 2010 has been abysmal. He has, however, taken Portsmouth to the FA Cup Final and West Ham to this year's League Cup final showing his Cups form remains nearly indomitable. Unfortunately for Yoda, it's the Premiership and the money it brings that interests Gold & Sullivan meaning Grant's status remains perilous at best.

Other managers under pressure include Roberto Martinez at Wigan, Aston Villa's new boss Gerard Houllier, Fulham's Mark Hughes and most prominently the Gentleman of English football, Liverpool's Roy Hodgson. Poor performances or an inability to match last season's standing dogs each of them. Although the pressure has eased on Roberto Mancini in the blue half of Manchester, he finds his job mildly in question because of the style of play he's conducted at Eastlands. His consistent use of defensive tactics has frustrated fans and players alike but a recent run of results has probably ensured his position for now.

Each boss finds himself under the magnifying glass as the January transfer window approaches because it's now that clubs start thinking about shelling out on new players. For the Hammers, where would the sense be in giving Grant money to spend on the players his style of play demands when the style encouraged by Allardyce or Hughton requires different skill sets?

As Christmas approaches, it still remains to be seen if one or more of these men has more time to spend with his family during the cold English winter. With so many bosses feeling the pressure it's likely that there will be at least one gaffer dismissed this year and with the Winter Sales - and the point of no return - just around the corner, that looks to be coming sooner rather than later.

We'd love to hear your comments as to who you think will be the first manager sacked. Who would you replace them with?