Mario Balotelli joins AC Milan, continues to confuse

Many teams have improved themselves this transfer window.  There have been short-term additions like Sporting KC forward Kei Kamara’s six-month audition with Norwich City, bargains, as well as deals with a view to a long term future (see Zaha, Wilfried and Shea, Brek). 

There has even been the odd case of addition by subtraction.

The most prominent deal of this type involves Mario Balotelli.  His two-plus years playing for Manchester City had exhausted his employers and yesterday he was sent to the red side of Milan for a fee approximating £17 million.

That such a talent as Balotelli was released by City without argument is a sign of the disdain in which he is held at the Etihad campus.  The negatives finally outweighed the positives, with the final straw perhaps coming four weeks ago as the temperamental forward became involved in a physical altercation with coach – and his most prominent backer – Roberto Mancini.

While the deal may help the City dressing room coalesce and focus on overhauling crosstown rivals Manchester United, it also rids the club of their most gifted player.  With Balotelli, there are no absolutes – he every statement about him must be accompanied by a “but”, an “if” or a “when”.

Mario Balotelli is a player with a presence so large that you can’t judge anything he does from only one angle.  He is a colourful, 3D character in a world that paint its characters like Steamboat Willy.  This might be his greatest hurdle in keeping popular sentiment positive: football media often portrays its subjects in unforgiving black and white.

He is the most talented Italian striker to emerge since Antonio Cassano (at least) and also a man who exemplifies persistent problems with authority.  He’s a genius, and a madman.  A word or a sentence isn’t enough to articulate the truth of Mario Balotelli.

A three-dimensional outlook is also the only way to evaluate his transfer to the Fashion City.  He will win games for the Rossoneri, but also frustrate.  It’s a win for Manchester City, but also a loss – talents like Mario emerge twice a decade.  How very Balotelli.

AC Milan: Ch-ch-ch-changes

Silvio Berlusconi doesn't do anything by half measures.

Two seasons ago, his club was perhaps the oldest elite team in Europe.  Although football's Peter Pan, Paolo Maldini, had retired, the Rossoneri claimed the Serie A title featuring almost an entire XI of thirtysomethings (Alessandro Nesta,  Mark van Bommel, Massimo Ambrosini, Clarence Seedorf, Gianluca Zambrotta, Pippo Inzaghi, Massimo Oddo, Christian Abbiati, Andrea Pirlo and Gennaro Gattuso).  These decelerating stalwarts were supplemented by some elite "younger" talent like Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Robinho and Alexandre Pato.

2012 sees AC Milan looking forward to their next challenge: building a club around home-developed talent rather than big-money signings.

Strictures imposed by UEFA's Financial Fair Play, coupled with a perilous Italian economy means Berlusconi and co decided the club was best positioned to stare down their future without their gamut of fourth-decade, eight-figure signings.  Over the past two years, the club has sold or released a dozen of their most experienced players (Ibrahimovic, Thiago Silva, Nesta, Seedorf, Zambrotta, Inzaghi, Gattuso, Taye Taiwo, van Bommel, Oddo, Legrottaglie and Pirlo), players with a combined age of 402.  Furthermore, the club finally gave up on Ronaldinho, a player who aged much sooner than anyone would have thought possible.

Replacements have been younger and relatively inexpensive: Philippe Mexes, Kevin-Prince Boateng and perhaps  most excitingly of all, Stephan El Shaarawy.  Although Berlusconi and manager Massimiliano Allegri are likely to enter the transfer market, perhaps for red-half alumnus Kaka or Montpellier central defender Mpou Yang-Mbiwa, global buzzwords "austerity measures" seem to apply at Giuseppe Meazza.

In fact, to compare the anticipated AC Milan starting lineup for their first Serie A match to that of two years ago is almost - but not quite - pointless.  The fourteen  players used that day had an average age of 29.6 - incidentally, the exact same average age that of those players that started Milan's first Serie A match last year.  Only five of those players from two years ago remain at the club.  Should no further purchases be made this transfer window the average AC Milan player would be 26.2, a figure increased by goalkeeper Abbiati who at 35 years old is half a decade older than the next oldest starter.

The turnaround was needed and anticipated.  Even though it was expected, it was still brutal.  The new club, while boasting abundant pace and stamina, will rely heavily upon El Shaarawy, Robinho and Boateng for flair and goals.  Despite not appearing to have the same class as even last year, Berlusconi may have chosen the perfect time to rebuild from within: arch-rivals Inter Milan completed an awful season last term, while the whole of Serie A - particularly champions Juventus - are sweating the results of further match-fixing investigations

Only once these allegations play out will we be able to accurately forecast the Italian league.  Count on one thing though: a changed AC Milan means a changed league.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic, PSG, AC Milan and the carousel

Life is cyclical. Well, at least until it isn't.

However, in football, this is more strangely true than in many other realms.

Take for example Joe Kinnear, who reared his head at Newcastle United in 2008 after nearly a decade submerged by heart trouble, poor results and relegation. The man who signed his pay cheques? Mike Ashley, who was known as a shrewd businessman when he arrived Tyneside; the same man who lost millions – and, for about two years, his mind – before rebuilding the Magpies into a wonderful, cost-effective side.

His reputation may not be restored, but it is certainly rehabilitated.

The carousel nature of football finance has been fixed for years. Some clubs emerge to challenge the established plutocracy, often as those old money sorts trend towards a kind of faux-austerity. However, often the nouveau riche accomplish only a mild sensation before owners who arrive in Ferraris depart the scene in Greyhound buses. Nothing's easier than losing money in sports ownership.

If development isn't sustainable, even the most generous benefactor has a limited capacity for giving away their money. Eventually, if baseplates and failsafes aren't created, the carousel quickly rights itself and all returns to normal: old money persists and questions pursue those who got rich quick.

This week's transaction between AC Milan and Paris Saint-Germain is of this nature. It was a handshake made of Rossoneri fiscal expediency and of PSG's owners, Qatar Investment Authority, buying that ugatti Veyron they always wanted. By shoving what amounts to fob change at both Thiago Silva and Zlatan Ibrahimovic in that most notorious “double swoop”, QIA have rounded off their transfer expenditure at a satisfyingly even €200 million.

As Champions League winners Chelsea and EPL Champions Manchester City have succeeded, so too will PSG. At some stage, however, they will fall – Blackburn Rovers couldn't maintain their mid-nineties success while the most high-profile team of them all, the Galacticos, were only a moderate success. If expectations aren't met, impatient men blow up their creations and begin the cycle again.

Clubs like Liverpool, AC Milan, Barcelona and Manchester United have built up so much equity over decades that their ascent again has become a foregone conclusion. For entities such as PSG, who were created in 1970, that's not necessarily the case; a cycle isn't a short one but could mean years in the wilderness.

A ready example of how to spend their money already exists. Sheikh Mansour has achieved short-term results without sacrificing altogether future, a sign that he hopes to accumulate that same equity. Whether that has been the aim at Chelsea, QPR or PSG is still very much in question.

The old money temporarily cycles down as the new money rises. As always.

Goalkeeping Stats across Europe - an analysis

101 goalkeepers made over ten starts in Europe's four major leagues during season 2010-12. Another fifty-six made at least one start in either the English Premiership, La Liga, the Bundesliga or Serie A. So after thirty eight games (thirty-four in Germany), which goalkeeper is best?

Of course evaluating custodians purely by stats is a fraught and inaccurate business. Goalkeepers, by their demeanour and wits bring more to a team than simply stopping shots, as per NHL netminders. They also command and organise their defence as well as arrange their players in best positions to defend set pieces. Also, they are often not at fault for the goals conceded, being beaten by lackadaisical or poor defending.

That's not to say that quantification of a goalkeeper's performance is useless. For one thing, we can evaluate definitively the differences across leagues.

LEAGUE	Total Starts	Conceded	Saves	Saves/Start	Save %	GAA
Serie A	760	953	2560	3.36	0.729	1.25
La Liga	760	1042	2645	3.48	0.717	1.37
EPL	760	1057	2403	3.17	0.695	1.39
Bundesliga	612	890	1925	3.13	0.684	1.45

GAA = Goals Allowed Average. Note the term "Start" has been used rather than "Games". Due to the data available, we weren't able to evaluate when goalkeepers conceded after coming on as a substitute. This also means that all the goals scored in a league throughout the course of the season may not be included in this table.

Perhaps as a result of a slower game tempo, of a reliance on a star individual, miserly defence or even plain and simple goalkeeping ability, Serie A produced consistently the best goalkeeper metrics across the board. That is, Goalkeepers in Italy conceded less goals per game, had a higher save percentage and produced a high level of saves per start.

Italian football is notorious for it's slower pace - unless you're Napoli or Udinese this season - and infamous for low goalscoring. That isn't necessarily borne out here - while the GAA was lower than in the other three major leagues, the increased Save Percentage counteracts that. This could also be a tactical measure, where Italian defenders are more "pigeon-holed" as defensive stoppers, eschewing forward play in favour of stolid defence.

Most surprising was the relative decrease in saves across the water in England. The Premiership produced the second-lowest save percentage and the second-highest GAA. Again, tactical considerations could be keeping these averages low or simply that the offensive play is superior. This could both back up and dispel the popular preconception that the Premier League is the most exciting and balanced in Europe, so while it's interesting data it's hardly definitive. While this table takes into account goalkeeper performance, it is we have said, impossible to divorce that totally from a defence's (in)ability.

How would these numbers look then, if we removed the backups? Most clubs have one primary goalkeeper and at least one creditable custodian in reserve - take for example Italian Champions AC Milan who fielded Christian Abbiati thirty-five times during 2010-11 and Marco Amelia during the remaining three matches. The following table has removed all the players with less than ten league starts. The numbers don't change much at all:

LEAGUE	Total Starts	Conceded	Saves	Saves/Start	Save %	GAA
Serie A	732	912	2469	3.37	0.730	1.25
La Liga	698	938	2432	3.48	0.722	1.34
EPL	714	988	2283	3.20	0.698	1.38
Bundesliga	553	795	1758	3.18	0.689	1.44

The greatest difference between the two is a minor increase in German Saves per Start and Save Percentage, while Spanish Save Percentage increased mildly as well. The GAAs, though changed in all leagues except Serie A, were minor adjustments. While it was a nice thought that a league's overall goalkeeping quality could indicate how crucial defences were to the numbers, it is unproveable with the above results.

It's perhaps telling that the greatest difference in the table above comes from Germany & La Liga's goalkeeping starts: during the course of the Spanish season, forty-three players got a start between the sticks. Thirty-eight Goalkeepers got starts in the Bundesliga (forty-two, if adjusted for a twenty-team league), thirty-nine Italian league players and thirty-seven in the EPL. While the vast majority of each team's matches were played by the starting GK (over 90% in all leagues), Germany had the most trust in their backups.

This means that backup keepers, whether for reasons of injury, form or rotation claimed 9.93% of the available starts in Germany while in Italy, starters accounted for an enormous 96.3% of the available starts.

In part two, we'll go through Europe's best and brightest goalkeepers by save percentage, Goals Allowed average and by league. In the meantime, you can find all the raw data here at Balanced Sports' Goalkeeper Stats page.

Trading Fashion Cities: Leonardo swaps Inter Milan for PSG

In French, Brazilian coach Leonardo would be called Un chat à la mode. And a lucky one. Talk about landing on one's feet! The former AC Milan and Inter Milan coach signed on Thursday to coach French Ligue 1 outfit Paris Saint-Germain.

Leonardo, whose brilliant playing career made him a rossoneri icon is, at best, a hesitant coach. He was persuaded to take the AC Milan managerial reins after Carlo Ancelotti's 2009 sacking and was replaced at the end of that season as his relationship with club owner Silvio Berlusconi became progressively more unworkable. After six months out of the game he resurfaced as Inter Milan's boss replacing the remarkably unpopular Rafael Benitez. Inter, fourteen points behind league-leading red-half rivals AC, promptly went on a tremendous run to the point where April's Fashion City Derby became the season's deciding game.

Under new coach Massimiliano Allegri, AC Milan were triumphant and Inter Milan settled uncomfortably into second place in Serie A. The nerazzuri's title streak died at five. Leonardo, whose coaching philosophy could be best described as rolling the ball out and saying "Go play", empowered that turnaround either by shrewd assessments of his players' moods or by sheer good fortune. However it was accomplished, large questions remain as to his coaching prowess and even his suitability to such an everyday, hand-on role. Rumours persist that he has no great love for the role of manager and even in the mid term would prefer a boardroom position.

Perhaps this is the rare occasion where nice guys actually do finish first. Leonardo presents exceedingly well: dapper, articulate and friendly. The move to PSG presents the opportunity to hone his skills, revisit past glories or maybe just an escape from the relentless baking heat of the Italian media kitchen. Perhaps he felt club expectations were too high in the wake of opponents strengthening. Having said that, however, PSG's new Qatari owners should be very aware of what they will be getting: style with little proven substance.

For someone who has shown no great affinity for the work, reportedly has designs on higher and less stressful offices and isn't a relentless self-promoter, Leonardo has the happy ability of falling on his feet; his skills on the training track overshadowed by his incredible talent for dealing with almost despotic club owners Berlusconi and Moratti. PSG, one of France's most storied clubs - and where he played for two years from 1996 - can only speculate as to what they are getting beyond an urbane, handsome spokesman.

Whether Leonardo's attacking football - which promotes player enjoyment - last season was a reaction to Benitez's staid gameplan or the first manifestations of an easygoing coaching style is amusingly unanswerable. Whether it was genius or luck, his mindset and tactical nous still need proving.

Moratti's satisfaction with his former sideline boss is unknown. Whether this is a blow to his plans for the side really comes down to his opinions as to Leonardo's ability, a situation where has more information with which to judge than we in the public. What is, however, apparent, is the search for a replacement, which given the dearth of quality candidates could become one of summer's football tiresome constants.

Milan derby to decide Serie A

Rafael Benitez's short reign at Inter has already been overshadowed by the sparkle of his successor's. With the Nerazzurri following Brazilian Leonardo in a rapid climb up the Serie A standings, league-leading AC Milan appear scared of losing what, at one point, had been a double-digit lead in the points standings. Since Benitez's methodical approach was superseded by Leonardo just rolling the ball out and saying "Go play, boys", what was once a fifteen-point differential has been cut to two.

Both Inter forward Samuel Eto'o and Leonardo have gone on record as saying the derby won't decide the title race, but such talk is fatuous. This match is probably the most crucial in Italy for the entire year. Though there are several matches remaining for the season, a win for either could well mean the death-knell for their rivals' aspirations. Should the Rossoneri win, the gap would be five points again and breathing room. If the Nerazzurri triumph, they would overtake their nemeses and continue AC's poor-ish run of form - a mild slump which has seen their grasp on the title downgraded from "quite strong" to "quite shaky".

AC Milan are missing serial pest Zlatan Ibrahimovic, the man who has scored or assisted in over 40% of their goals this season, but could regain Andrea Pirlo from a lengthy injury-enforced absence. The loss of Ibrahimovic could well be compensated for by Nerazzurri centre-back Lucio, who is also suspended. Should Clarence Seedorf and Pirlo be required to play heavy minutes for Milan it could prove problematic as age and injury have currently robbed each of his ability to play ninety minutes of their best football.

It's likely that pace could prove the ultimate factor here as both defences struggle to cope with outright pace (doesn't everyone?) For Inter, the key will be - as always - Wesley Sneijder and his ability to get the ball to deadeyes Eto'o and Pazzini. His task will be made all the more difficult by the presence of Marc Van Bommel, the man for whom the term "Midfield Destroyer" was invented. The Rossoneri's speedy forward trident of Antonio Cassano, Robinho and Alexandre Pato are likely to be crucial in determining who will be Milan's (and probably Italy's) champion of 2011. Game on.

UEFA Champions' League Review

Say what you like, no-one expected what we got this week in the UEFA Champions' League. Tottenham Hotspur kept up their startling run by taking a 1-0 lead in their two-legged tie with AC Milan, while Arsenal came back from a goal behind to defeat Barcelona at the Emirates stadium in a victory touted as perhaps the finest of Arsene Wenger's career. Meanwhile, Shakhtar Donetsk defeated Roma 3-2, while Valencia and Schalke 04 played out a one-all draw.

The biggest headlines of the week's action took place at the San Siro when Italian firebrand Gennaro Gattuso has been charged with Improper Conduct after headbutting, and threatening to choke and punch Tottenham coach Joe Jordan. The player's agent says Jordan provoked the shirty midfielder with certain remarks, claims both strenuously and predictably denied by Spurs boss Harry Redknapp. The solitary goal came from Peter Crouch who devoured an Aaron Lennon cross in the sevety-eighth minute. The return leg will be at White Hart Lane on Wednesday March 9th.

Not a good week for the Italians then, as Claudio Ranieri's Roma were spliflicated by a surging Shakhtar. The Ukrainians only mustered half the shots and only barely over 41% possession but still were able to scrape together a victory at the Stadio Olimpico and must surely be considered almost a lock to progress to the Quarter-Finals such is their home field advantage. Ranieri - no certainty to be Roma's manager by season's end - must now focus his attentions on marshaling his men into Serie A's European positions.

After his very vociferous month on Twitter, Jack Wilshere led the Gunners to victory against a Barcelona team tagged "Best Ever". Though Barca dominated the first half, the boys from North London were able to peg back the Catalans and it was Andrei Arshavin who slotted home the winner, polishing off good work by Samir Nasri. Matched up against Xavi, Busquets and Iniesta, Wilshere was magnificent and the much-maligned Laurent Koscielny justified some of his sizeable transfer fee with easily the best game of his short Arsenal career. Los Cules still managed 66% possession though and still hold a crucial away goal. The tie is far from over.

The round's scoring got underway at Valencia as Roberto Soldado put the home side ahead against Schalke. The equaliser came from Spanish maestro Raul, who tied the match with his seventy-first goal in European competition even though the Germans were on the back foot for much of the tie. Even allowing the Spaniards to dominate the ball, the Germans may have managed the best chances of the match as Junmin Hao was denied by a wonderful save from Valencia custodian Vicente Guaita Panadero.

All four ties remain very much alive. This season's been a wonderful one so far in all the major leagues: the rise of Borussia Dortmund in Germany, AC Milan's resurgence in Serie A, the most even EPL season in recent memory and the implacable brilliance of Barcelona and Real Madrid. Though 2010's World Cup may not have been one for the ages, the season following it certainly has been.

AC to the AC

League-leading AC Milan have reportedly struck a deal to sign flamboyant Italy forward Antonio Cassano from Sampdoria. It's a curious move by the Rossoneri for a few reasons - most notably the presence of such a wobbly howitzer could destabilise Serie A's form team on and off the field.

Cassano's recent suspension has finished, a ban imposed for a foul-mouthed tirade directed at the club President after being asked to attend an awards function. The Italian media reported his explosion as being heard by several visitors including children, that it was in response to a reasonably-phrased request and seemed to come from nowhere.

To come from nowhere probably isn't accurate - Cassano's been the enfant terrible since his emergence at Bari and has displayed more of these tendencies as his profile has risen. Whether it's been weight clauses, threatening to "walk all the way back to Roma", his glittering form when starting over (again) at the blucerchiati of Sampdoria or fans chanting his name to the Italy coach, his career has hardly been a boring one.

Even he probably admits he crossed the line with his supernovaic anger. He only barely avoided his contract being voided despite his offering to take a 50% wage cut. The explosion was probably already coming after being benched last term for conduct detrimental to the team. With that, another relationship between Cassano and his club had soured.

Given their big rival Inter Milan's poor form, it's puzzling why AC would risk dividing the impressive forward triumvirate of Ibrahimovic, Robinho and Kevin-Prince Boateng? Cassano's talent and goal sense would be handy, but could come at a significant cost to team harmony. Another me-first player in the San Siro dressing room could destabilise the club rather than reinforce it.

Injuries to Filippo Inzaghi and Alexandre Pato combined with Ronaldinho's probable impending departure could represent something of a talent drain, but Boateng has so far proved a very shrewd acquisition and plays in the same position as Cassano - in the hole behind the front-man. In the unlikely event the Rossoneri are planning to let the Ghanaian's loan deal expire then this could create more problems for the coach.

Perhaps Milan are banking on the leadership of their numerous veterans sedating the bad boy of Italian football: rather than being a big fish in a smaller pond, Cassano is now suddenly surrounded by players like Gattuso, Inzaghi, Seedorf, Nesta, Pirlo and Ambrosini. Unfortunately that didn't stop his alleged antics at Roma or Real. It could be he's on an incentive-laden contract with a system of fines and penalties built in. Players are much less likely to sign such deals but surely Milan is in the position of power: given his exhaustion of other opportunities, they need Cassano less than he needs them. Perhaps that's AC's tactic: to simply tie him to the bench should he become too much of a distraction and eat his ample wages the way he devours pastries.

With their league position, squad and the considerable fiscal cost of this deal, it appears Milan have more to lose than to gain. Signing Antonio Cassano could sound like a good idea, but could also be a move that excites other clubs as much as the Milan fans.