Where to now for Bolton Wanderers?

The Premier League season concluded with one of the more exciting final days in recent memory. While it was certain that either they or QPR would drop to the Championship, the manner of Bolton's ultimate demise was unexpected but eventually deserved. Since a promising start to 2010-11, the Trotters slid rapidly from an FA Cup semi-final appearance to a horrible 2011-12 season.

There was bad luck, such as key forward Chung-yong Lee breaking his leg or Stuart Holden missing most of the year; lack of form and age plagued Kevin Davies and Martin Petrov; decisively the Bolton defence was so leaky one imagines the architect planned it that way.

That Fabrice Muamba collapsed on the pitch at Spurs was again an incident even the best planning couldn't anticipate.

Coyle, only a year ago rumoured as a potential Arsenal manager, has an almighty job to lead his club back to the Premier League. Considering Bolton's rather unsound fiscal state, it is a task he'll likely be expected to complete at the first attempt. Here are four steps which will allow Bolton to earn back their Premiership status:

What does it take to stay up?

Over the past decade, thirty clubs have been promoted from the Championship to the Premiership. Some take with them solid financial footing, others acquire it with the TV rights riches that accompany such a promotion. Occasionally, clubs will try to set out all stops to defend their territory, fearing leaking goals is a surefire route back to the second tier. Others – like Owen Coyle, Tony Mowbray and Ian Holloway – prefer to play the attractive football which got them to the Big Dance in the first place.

Within the following table, there are several “usual suspects”, clubs which have see-sawed between Premiership and League Championship - Sunderland, Birmingham and particularly that very definition of the “yo-yo team”, West Bromwich Albion. Each club has had the chance to attain multiple promotions because they’ve acquired the annoying habit of suffering relegation almost immediately after each promotion.

Over the past decade, we’ve seen a disturbing trend towards clubs lasting only one or two years in the Premiership after promotion. Of course this has always been a problem for the Football League but recently this problem has become even more tricky as survival almost demands significant fiscal investment.

In the table below, recent years have provided a dearth of clubs able to survive in the big league long term: recently, Stoke City and Newcastle appear able to maintain their EPL status, but all of recent promoted teams West Brom, Wolves, Birmingham and Blackpool have had one strong season followed by a weak one (and relegation) or have failed to convince altogether.

Year	Teams Promoted	EPL Years	Points	Goals	Conceded	Result
2001-02	Fulham Blackburn Bolton	10* 10* 10*	44 46 40	36 55 44	44 51 62	Safe – 13 Safe – 10 Safe – 16
2002-03	Man City West Brom Birmingham	9* 1 4	51 26 48	47 29 41	51 65 49	Safe – 9 Drop – 19 Safe – 13
2003-04	Portsmouth Leicester Wolves	7 1 1	45 33 33	47 48 38	54 65 77	Safe – 13 Drop – 18 Drop – 20
2004-05	Norwich West Brom Crystal Palace	1 2 1	33 34 33	42 36 41	77 61 62	Drop – 19 Safe – 17 Drop – 18
2005-06	Sunderland Wigan Athl. West Ham	1 6* 6*	15 51 55	26 45 52	69 52 55	Drop – 20 Safe – 10 Safe – 9
2006-07	Reading Sheff. Utd Watford	2 1 1	55 38 28	52 32 29	47 55 59	Safe – 8 Drop – 18 Drop – 20
2007-08	Sunderland Birmingham Derby County	4* 1 1	39 35 11	36 46 20	59 62 89	Safe – 15 Drop – 19 Drop – 20
2008-09	West Brom Stoke City Hull City	1 3* 2	32 45 35	36 38 39	67 55 64	Drop – 20 Safe – 12 Safe – 17
2009-10	Wolves Birmingham Burnley	2* 2* 1	38 50 30	32 38 42	56 47 82	Safe – 15 Safe – 9 Drop - 18
2010-11	Newcastle West Brom Blackpool	1* 1* 1*	?	?	?	?

Perhaps the greatest key is not so much goals scored as goals conceded in the first year in the top tier. While wins may be the key to survival, it stands to reason that if clubs don’t concede, they don’t lose. If we average the number of first-year goals conceded by “long-term” survivors – those who lasted longer than two seasons – against those who went down within two years, we come up with the following:

First year stats ========	Total Conceded	Avg Conceded	Total Scored	Avg Scored
Survived >2 years	523	52.3	400	40
Relegated w/in 2 years	919	65	524	37.4

Clubs promoted in 2009 or 2010 have not been taken into account as four still battle relegation.

No club has allowed more than Bolton’s 62 goals in 2001-02 and survived for more than two years. Within the last five years that total has dropped – Sunderland conceded 59 in 2007-08 and remain in the Premiership to this day. The club who conceded the least and were still relegated within their first two years was Reading, who actually conceded the second-smallest total of first-season goals, but suffered a horrible case of “second season syndrome” after failing to adequately reinforce after a superb first year and were condemned to the Championship.

Of course life’s never as simple as statistics seem to make it. Often, yo-yo clubs simply aren’t good enough in any one aspect of the game to survive in the Premiership for any length of time (eg. Watford and Derby County).

It seems scoring goals isn’t as important as saving them. This shows that clubs who set out stall to defend – such as Stoke City – and then build upon that solidity are well-placed to survive. Clubs who favour footballing philosophies rather than pragmatism – clubs like Burnley and Blackpool – make for a happier, more watchable Premier League but seldom survive for long periods.

Image of Owen Coyle courtesy: telegraph.co.uk

Image of Tony Pulis courtesy: msn.foxsports.com

Stoke/Bolton FA Cup Semi-Final: The Ugly Stepsisters meet at Wembley

While it's derby season, what could be the best game this weekend won't be the Spanish Superclasico in La Liga or the Manchester Derby in the FA Cup. It could well be the ugly stepsister FA Cup Semi-Final between two of the EPL's more unfashionable teams, Bolton Wanderers and Stoke City.

Both teams started in the Premiership strictly playing Route One football: defend, long passes to a burly centre-forward and goals scrambled from inside the box or set pieces. Both have survived, for years now, played what amounts to "The Beautiful Game for uggos". Both clubs are still somewhat prone to the long ball - Bolton centre-forward Kevin Davies has an astonishing 200 more "flick-ons" than any other player in the league - but each of their current managers came to terms with being seen among the division's thugs and set about modifying their games.

For Bolton, that came the instant Owen Coyle walked in the door after being pinched from nor'west rivals Burnley. He'd led the Clarets to promotion and had them sitting mid-table in the Premiership when he departed to take over his alma mater Bolton. He brought with him his chief tactical asset - an ability to instill respect in his players for a passing game. Where former boss Gary Megson eschewed the use of creative types like Stuart Holden, Coyle has embraced them; his biggest coup so far has been to lure Martin Petrov to the Reebok at the expiration of his Man City contract.

With Petrov and Matty Taylor on the left, Lee Chung-Yong on the right and the regrettably injured Holden between them, the new face of Wanderer football has become apparent. Their supply has even managing to excite Swedish forward Johan Elmander into his best year on English shores after being a bust as a ₤12 million signing from Toulouse three years ago. It's no coincidence Bolton occupy the EPL's seventh place and harbour hopes of Europe next year.

Neither is it random that Stoke City in twelfth position. In perhaps the best coaching job in England that no-one talks about, Tony Pulis has taken a side of Championship stalwarts and Premiership rejects from relegation certainties into a club which can challenge the best. The Welshman initially bred an uncompromising unit and then has proceeded to add elements of flair once Top Flight safety was assured. It's fitting that these flair players too, should be cast-offs: Matthew Etherington was little-used at West Ham, Jon Walters toiled at the Championship's Ipswich Town and Jermaine Pennant has cashed paycheques from nine different clubs.

Despite Pulis' best efforts, that creativity hasn't blossomed magically as Coyle's men have at Bolton and the Potters remain a team heavily reliant on set-pieces, particularly the patriot-missile-like throws of Rory Delap. This is unsurprising: rather than add flair pieces to a staid unit, it often produces more goals to scrap one tactical method and employ a more fluid style of play as has been proved by Liverpool since Kenny Dalglish usurped Roy Hodgson. Unless you're Ian Holloway, the old adage applies: once a defensive coach, always a defensive coach.

For either club, any newfound creativity or offensive spark hasn't come at the expense of their toughness or defence. It could well be a clash of the immovable object against the other immovable object, which brings back memories of the mid-00's in Australian football. During the early part of last decade, the AFL suffered from "flooding", where most - if not all - players were positioned behind the ball. This made for low-scoring games and unsettled spectators because the game wasn't free-flowing. What it did make for, however, was a spectacular contest: with very little space or time in which players could operate, skills were at a premium and with the intensity ratcheted up it begat eminently watchable, if not high-scoring, matches.

Expect the same at Wembley when Stoke and Bolton meet - a match high on intensity but low on magic, no matter how much the respective gaffers try tacitly to encourage such feats. An element of high skill in the box (or just outside) from any of Fuller, Etherington or Petrov could be enough to take the biscuits this weekend, which makes this match as interesting as any across Europe this week.

The football year, 2010

Best Moment: The final moments of the World Cup quarter-final between Uruguay & Ghana. The entire sequence, including Suarez's deliberate handball, Gyan's penalty miss and then his successful taking of the first penalty in the shootout was drama of the highest quality.

Best Team: It comes either from Spain or Barcelona, no matter what Inter Milan and their Champions' League medals say. My pick is Barcelona simply because the style of football they've produced consistently over the past twelve months has been a cut above almost anything we've seen before. Their dismantling of Real Madrid earlier this month was both beautiful and awe-inspiring.

Worst Team: Not so much "worst" as "worst performance from what should have been a good team". This award goes to Italy for their poor World Cup. Even England's desolate form looked good when compared against the reigning world champs and new manager Cesare Prandelli inherited not winners, but a team in need of rebuilding.

Best Manager: Usually the best managers are those which manage the best teams. There are few exceptions here as Pep Guardiola, Vicente Del Bosque and Jose Mourinho all have adequate claims. I'm going to opt however for Ian "Olly" Holloway from Blackpool who's overseen their transformation from Championship relegation candidates to mid-table Premiership sporting a squad made up of also-rans and journeymen.

Best Game: Without question the match in which Barcelona destroyed Real only a few weeks ago. There's a good chance that the best team in Europe waltzed over the second best with nary a second thought. Honourable mention: The Ghana/Uruguay World Cup Quarter-Final.

Player of 2010: Again, surely must come from Spain. Wayne Rooney or Diego Milito could have been in this race given they both started the year on fire but struggled with injury and form since the 2010 Champions' League. As for the best player of 2010, you could pick any of Andres Iniesta, Xavi or Lionel Messi. It's your pick, and I won't complain about any of 'em. Honourable mentions: Diego Forlan and Thomas Muller both had outstanding World Cups.

Signing of 2010: Rafael Van der Vaart has been a revelation since signing on for Tottenham in the Premiership. Another Dutch master who didn't fit at the Bernabeu who then has flourished after being sold.

Worst Signing: It could well be Antonio Cassano, who's recently moved from Sampdoria to AC Milan. Honourable mention: Javier Mascherano's transfer to Barcelona seemed to be Los Catalans aiming for names, rather than skill-sets. With both these signings however, time will tell.

Person who most lived up to his imaginary middle name: Sepp Blatter. I can't write what I really think of his autocratic style of government at FIFA. Honourable mention: John Terry

Most stubborn resistance to commonsense: That Arsene Wenger is yet to replace his strictly-average goalkeeping platoon of Lukas Fabianski and Manuel Almunia is what keeps his rival managers happy and giggling.

Second-most stubborn resistance to commonsense: FIFA's refusal to abide any signs of progress, especially regarding Goal-line technology.

Goal of the Year: Glentoran's Matt Burrows, amidst a veritable snowstorm of contenders.

Un-goal of the Year: Khalfan Fahad's side-foot for Qatar against Uzbekistan in the 2010 Asian Games earned him instant notoriety and (probably) the worst miss of 2010.

Craziest statement: Blatter's gaffe concerning homosexuals "refraining" last week was an extremely poorly-judged piece of social commentary masquerading as a joke. Honourable mentions: Most other statements issued by Sepp Blatter; Mario Balotelli saying that only Lionel Messi was a better player than him, Steven Gerrard calling Joe Cole "better than Messi".

Poorest Managerial Fit: Roy Hodgson at Liverpool. He's a remarkably talented manager but already the seeds of his dismissal have been sown. Honourable mention: Rafael Benitez's horrible stint in charge of Inter Milan.

Harshest EPL sacking: Although Sam Allardyce may have other ideas, there's no question Chris Hughton has been the hardest-done-by manager in the Premiership this year.

Most obvious money-grabbing tactic of 2010: Wayne Rooney's five-day turnaround in October where he went from demanding a transfer to signing the richest Man U contract ever. With those actions, he went from fan favourite to pariah, and rightly so. Honourable mention: Blatter's acceptance and backing of the Qatari bid for the 2022 World Cup.

Explosion of 2010: Gareth Bale's emergence as a world-class left winger, where he's taken apart several outstanding defences throughout the course of the year. Honourable mention: Antonio Cassano's tirade at Sampdoria president Riccardo Garrone.

Implosion of 2010: France's World Cup squad became more and more farcical as the tournament progressed. It was incredibly amusing, especially given that Nicolas Anelka was at the hub, a man who it's very difficult to like. Honourable mention: football owners, left and right, whose teams were simply not set up to cope with the global economic downturn, eg. Sacha Gaydamak's reign at Portsmouth.

Hero of 2010: Owen Coyle has transformed Bolton from relegation candidates to real possibilities for Europe with much the same squad as predecessor Gary Megson, all with an affable and approachable attitude and a pleasing style of game - the kind of man you'd want to have a beer with. Honourable mention: Jose Mourinho (!) for masterminding Inter's Champions' League triumph over Barca.

Villain of 2010: (tie) John Terry and Luis Suarez. John Terry for his off-field exploits (allegedly) with Wayne Bridge's ex; Suarez could be considered either hero or villain for his actions during the World Cup quarter final, but after recently biting an opponent and earning a seven-match ban sees him firmly planted in the villain category. Honourable mention: Roy Hodgson, who's worshiped by Fulham fans and ridiculed by Liverpudlians.