Osieck not long for Socceroos' top job

With Australian football trying to regain its feet after a 6-0 pasting against Brazil last month, speculation has intensified over the future of Socceroo coach Holger Osieck. The German manager has appeared a man unable to take forward steps in the past twelve months, with his players effectively playing according to inconsistent tactics; even his greatest moment in 2013 was tarnished by a poorly-timed sexist joke. The only thing Osieck has definitively delivered for Australia has been PR calamity: perfunctory football run by a quasi-unlikable boss.

The only things in Osieck's favor - significant though they may be - include a truncated lead-in time for any new manager and the $1 million he's still owed by the Football Federation of Australia Frank Lowy. Although he remains unpopular, it still remains more likely than not that the manager incumbent will lead the likes of Brett Holman, Tommy Oar and Archie Thompson (!) to South America and, ultimately, disappointment.

Strangely, the single greatest reason for the appointment of a new boss might be a limited talent pool. With Australia's best 20 players almost set in stone, the only way a new gaffer might impact the side during the year-til-Brazil would be to engage players and encourage tactical buy-in. This is an aspect of management Osieck has found difficult, because his iteration of Australia simply hasn't had the identity of past sides. For years, Australia was a burly, physical outfit capable of controlling games through brute strength. As players like Oar and Tom Rogic replaced the Mark Vidukas and Scott Chipperfields of the world, the Socceroos lost some of that identity and therefore Osieck has settled for an inconsistent style.

A new manager - Leo Beenhakker, perhaps? Or Johan Neeskens? - might help develop a national team with an identity and a definite idea of how to play to type. However, with Lowy burnt twice by international bosses (neither Osieck nor his predecessor Pim Verbeek have been a real success), the inclination is that Osieck will retain his post for the Fiesta World Cup, but only that long.

Man United's Januzaj makes right choice: not to choose

The international break approaches us like the semi in Duel – from a speck in the distance, it sneakily becomes overwhelming. Today’s World Cup Qualifiers include important matches between the Euro 2012 hosts in Kharkov and a Sweden/Austria matchup that might determine Group C’s playoff entrant, while the contest in Mexico City could keep the hopes alive of both Panama and Mexico.

The European confederation enters the week’s festivities in a curious manner: five separate national Football Associations are “keeping tabs” on a single player, Adnan Januzaj, a winger helping to dispel Manchester United’s Moyesian malaise. It emerged on Monday that all of the Belgian, English, Serbian, Turkish, Albanian and embryonic Kosovar Associations feel as if the Premiership’s most babyfaced star might be tempted to play for their country.

It’s not unknown for a player to choose his nationality based upon his residence or passport in many sports, but football is undoubtedly the most high-profile. To take two higher-profile examples, Croatia forward Eduardo spent the first sixteen years of his life in Brazil, while James McCarthy was born and raised in Scotland but represents Ireland, the country of his grandparents. Tug-of-loves in International football occur about as regularly as they do on Coronation Street.

However, Januzaj’s situation is different. The player is only eighteen and hasn’t represented any country in youth football; although on the exterior it feels … unwholesome for him to play for the Three Lions after two years in the country, should he feel the appropriate affinity for England, Januzaj should be entitled to cast his lot in forever with them, after he has served the requisite time. The same goes for Belgium, Serbia, Turkey (who are notoriously convincing) and even Kosovo, pending … well, a bunch.

Adnan Januzaj should be absolutely allowed – and encouraged – to choose whoever he wishes. Unlike days past, nationality is a now a fluid concept; perhaps even it is a decision that young men should take more seriously than who they play their club football for. What would have the impact been on Wilfried Zaha – and the Ivory Coast – had he opted to play from them instead of England? For Januzaj there might be even more stark implications, what reaction would there be from Kosovars should he choose to play for Serbia?  Choosing a nationality, even just for a chance to play at the World Cup, should not be easy. Therefore, Januzaj is wise to take the time he needs rather than accepting whichever call-ups hit his door first.

The same choice has recently been faced by the likes of Victor Moses, Wilfried Zaha or Raheem Sterling. If only they had the foresight and wisdom to simply make a statement to the effect of Januzaj – I’ll play for who I like, when I’m ready – they might have saved themselves a significant amount of confusion. 

Olympics no place for International Football

The United States attained a decisive qualifying victory and the Dutch became the first Europeans to begin planning in earnest for next year’s samba fiesta.  Meanwhile in Asia, Jordan enters a World Cup Playoff against the fifth-placed South American team as they hope to make their first entrance on the world’s gaudiest platform.  World Cup qualifying week has come and gone.

Mexico’s El Tri, adrift in the CONCACAF by 3 points, have decided that the manager who brought them Olympic success last year was better placed than former boss Jose Manuel De la Torre to successfully close what has been a dire qualification process.  Hope comes from Luis Fernando Tena leading a similar cadre of players to success in London against what passed for quasi-imposing opposition; the ascension is a direct result of success in a lesser tournament.

That it is seen as a lesser competition is precisely why football should not be an Olympic event.  As the United States proved so emphatically against El Tri, the World Cup is the ultimate prize for any nation fortunate enough to have a federation; the same can’t be said for an Olympic tournament.

The Games provide highs across the board for and from all nations: Bermuda’s yachting, South Korea’s unturnoffable archery and Equatorial Guinean swimming.  The two-week festival of sport should be the pinnacle of so many disciplines, ranging from recently-reinstated wrestling to (sigh) BMX racing.  Nothing compares with Olympic gold for athletes who race down ski-slopes or swim 5000 metres in open water – whereas, were Bastian Schweinsteiger, Lucas Neill or Landon Donovan presented with choosing between Olympics and World Cup, the smart money pictures them holding a golden cup – not medal – aloft.

The second-tier tournament argument is only helped by the restrictions imposed upon competing national squads.  Current Olympic regulations for males allow 3 players per nation above age 23, in effect creating a pared-down World Youth Cup – a tournament that only occurred two months ago with France victorious.  In every sport, Olympic champions are crowned the best in the world – except football.  Try matching the victorious Mexico XI from last year against Spain of 2010 and witness an unmediated slaughter. 

This varies subtly from sports like basketball.  Despite the highest standard of play occurring in the NBA, the national team from Senegal can’t qualify to play in that competition; a player must aspire to represent his country in the Olympics or FIBA Championships rather than against the New York Knicks or Toronto Raptors.  While individuals yearn for a training camp with even the poorest franchises; a nation’s collective consciousness dwells in the Olympics.   

It may be the epitome of pie-eyed optimism, but the Olympic Games should be the pinnacle for national sport.  The World Champions of football – the most global and widespread of all games – are determined at the World Cup and not the Olympic Games, creating redundancy in and already-bloated schedule. 

Concern about capturing a TV audience is misplaced.  The familiarity of football would be replaced with the unique nature of a carnival that only happens once every four years; a carnival that produces compelling sport in every event from volleyball to the modern pentathlon.  If London did nothing else (and it did), the Games shone a light on the tremendous stories that the Games regularly produce.  Football has enough of those tales – it’s time to allow other sports to enjoy their summer unshaded.

International break? Give me a break!

It’s international week again and, for the fourth time in as many months since the Euros, the football world lets out a collective “meh”.

Today’s friendlies mean nothing to anyone.  Except apparently FIFA, who decided to schedule a round of non-competition internationals to fuel their dual fantasy that International friendlies are as important to crowds as the local stuff.

It’s not that friendlies aren’t important, but poorly timed.  English Premier League clubs have managed eleven league matches each since the season began in August.  By today’s end, we will have seen seven international matches.   Joe Hart, the England goalkeeper, has already played 26 matches since June.

In November, you can be certain of three things: that some domestic seasons are just getting interesting (like the English Premiership or the A-League, where league saviour Alessandro Del Piero’s coach has just resigned), that playoffs are in full swing (as with the Asian Champions League and MLS) and that Chelsea  have begun their annual holiday.

In arranging this new slate of games, FIFA’s reasoning is almost sound.  They finds themselves trapped in a corner of a world demanding constant attention: with a six month break between matches, the administrators risk the International game being even further overshadowed by local affairs.   It’s not too long a bow to draw to suggest a random football fan from Jamaica, Uzbekistan or Egypt knows more about this year’s UEFA Champions League machinations than their home nation’s last friendly result.  Their half-baked solution?  More international football.

The fact is that the marketplace is flooded with football.  You’d think the market is so large that flooding it would be something of a logical impossibility, but you’d be wrong.  Almost without exception, every domestic league in the world has operated within the past month; not only were the European Championships this summer, but also the Olympics and the annual Carlos Tevez transfer saga. 

Football fans have had no respite from Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Sasa Ognenovski and Ashley Cole’s Twitter account for over a year.

International football is, simply, a wonderful product.  The World Cup is a celebration of football the Champions League Final can never replicate.  Almost every major International tournament comes with a wholesome quality lacking when players are bought or sold for exorbitant sums.  You can think of International football as Organic football, taking time and care to mature.

Those who control future international fixturing now face a decision.  When controlling such a unique (organic) product, you can approach the market in one of two ways: make your offering boutique and desirable, or compete against products which are different/plastic/a billionaire’s playground (delete as appropriate). 

International football should always be relevant; however, competing with a glitzier – but not necessarily better – product, it has fallen into byline territory.  It’s time for football federations the world over to market International football as what it is: a boutique product that offers much that the domestic game cannot.

Why England can beat Spain

As the Iberians land on English shores, they bring with them a remarkable record. Since February 2007, la Furia Roja has played 71 matches for 62 wins, four draws and five losses; they score an average of 2.25 goals per game. That's an 87% win ratio. For some brief perspective, the all-powerful Barcelona side of 2010-11 won just under 74 percent of their matches.

Spain should have no reason to fear. But they find themselves matched against an opponent of whom they should be extremely mindful.

Why such anglocentric sentiments coming from a critic of both Fabio Capello and the English football hierarchy? It is encouraging for the men in white that the gaffer has called up a (relatively) youthful squad including first-timers Jack Rodwell and Daniel Sturridge. However, Three Lion optimism shouldn't come from any potential debutant but how the match suits England's ageing or faded stars.

The conditions both teams find themselves under generally sees England perform better than any other set. There are a minimum of expectation, a (relatively) understated buildup - for English football - and a self-inflicted crisis surrounding John Terry. Thursday's match should be appealing to partisan and neutrals alike because it gives those England players who have for so long disappointed the chance to perform on a high stage without pressure.

Aside from deserving trio Kyle Walker, Rodwell and Sturridge, Capello's most recent squad features staid, expected names: Lescott, Cole, Terry, Lampard, Rooney. It also includes speedy, tricksy wingers Adam Johnson and Theo Walcott and the (relatively) precise Stewart Downing. In comparing the squad there is a gap in quality between the players in the Spanish squad and those who will represent England but it is hardly a chasm. A larger gap, however, lies in the empowerment of those players and their ability to play as a team.

The psychological benefits of playing as vast underdogs on a big, hopeful stage should be enough to stir a performance out of players who have tempted us with occasional performances only to revert to type in later matches; guys like Frank Lampard, Glen Johnson and Walcott. If they are allowed to play with freedom, this game could be a years-delayed coming out party: (relatively) few have doubted English talent - just the application and heart thereof.

Tactically, wingers Sturridge, Walcott and Johnson could prove decisive as the Red Fury exhibit perhaps their greatest weakness against speed merchants on the flanks. Full backs Puyol, Monreal, Ramos and Alba all have obvious quality but, like most, are vulnerable to pace. Sturridge in particular should be a monty to start as his Stamford Bridge form continues to impress.

Spain v England, 2009: courtesy: myfootballfacts.com

It's in matches like this Thursday's that the Three Lions seem to do well: clashes where excitable expectation gives way to a pessimistic realism. Even though understatement and English football rarely go together, there has been a gathering mood of "blah" about recent Three Lions excursions as weary pundits refuse to be tempted into notable proclamations. This play into the hands of Capello and his men.

Don't be surprised if England defeat Spain on Thursday. They should have all the tools to do so - talent, vocal crowds and the perfect scenario to highlight the talents of underachieving stars. Spain are still favourites - 87.3 percent! - but the match is not the foregone conclusion many suggest.

Spain's Second XI worthy of top 10 ranking

While watching David Silva and Spain dismantle a dogged and compact Scotland on Wednesday, it struck me: this was hardly Spain's best outfit and they were dominating.

Silva cemented his bona fides as one of the top half-dozen players in world football and Spain, with a team featuring second-choice players like Thiago Alcantara, Jordi Alba and Santi Cazorla, passed Scotland into an uneasy submission. The Scots, bless 'em, tried hard but the Spaniards seemed at times to be playing not just another game, but on another plane.

The players who didn't feature on Tuesday - Torres, Casillas, Xabi Alonso, Iniesta, Mata - mean it's now apparent that Spain's second XI could be one of the world's ten best international outfits. They are helped by a healthy youth league and a relative dearth of great opposition: realistically, only the Netherlands and Germany are able to hold a candle to the Spaniards. Brazil and Argentina today only resemble their most terrifying best.

courtesy: sparklingchelsea.wordpress.com

The FIFA world rankings (hardly the greatest indicator, but the only one we've got) suggest the world's top ten sides are Spain, the Netherlands, Germany, Uruguay, Portugal, Italy, Brazil, England, Croatia and Argentina.

In living up to their position description as confusing and nonsensical, the FIFA rankings have Croatia ranked ninth and Greece sitting in eleventh position. This is in spite of both squads finding themselves in the same qualifying group for Euro 2012; a group from which Greece qualified and Croatia now face a tricky playoff tie with Turkey.

We can, however, suggest this is a fairly accurate representation of the best teams in world football.

Were Spain's Second XI to feature in the FIFA rankings, they'd come up against three great teams (Germany, the Netherlands and Uruguay), two inconsistent ones (the other South Americans) and four eminently beatable squads, each with major weaknesses. Apart from perhaps a perceived weakness in central defence, Spain II play a similar brand of football to their first-choice brethren, have pace in abundance and, as they showed on Tuesday, discipline.

Using Spain's favoured 4-2-3-1, the second furia roja would probably include: Valdes; Alba, Jose Enrique, Alvaro Arbeloa and Raul Albiol; Thiago, Javi Martinez, Cesc Fabregas, Santi Cazorla and Pedro; and Fernando Llorente.

Wow.

The argument could be made that this team also features some of the best players dozen players in Spain. In this lineup Pedro plays for the "magoos", yet started in their World Cup triumph last year - superseded by Mata and Silva. Valdes' recent success in head-to-head battles with Casillas now invites, rather than discourages, comparison between the two. Fabregas is shuttled out of the Spain midfield (as with club) by players comfortably in the World's top five. Spain has played better recently when Llorente - rather than Torres - has led the line.

This club may even trouble the the vaunted Spain first team. The Spain Second XI are, on paper, a better team than Croatia, Portugal and even Italy. Place Spain v2.0 in any one of the Euro 2012 qualifying groups (and back them with suitable squad depth) and they at least make the playoffs from each. It's probably also the case that they'd slice England to pieces also.

The simile used most with Spain (and Barcelona) is "death by one thousand cuts". Perhaps a more appropriate metaphor may be that Spanish football is at present drowning the rest of the football world - inexorably, constrictingly and (given their outstanding Euro U-21 campaign) shows no signs of receding. All that is certain is the next wave of Spanish attacks could well overwhelm a struggling Scot, Lithuanian or even Oranje. After decades of torment, La Furia Roja is certainly making up for lost time.

While going back-to-back-to-back at major tournaments is so difficult that it's spoke of in grail-like reverence, the smart money for next year's Euros is on a three-peat - perhaps simply because the difficulty of staying focused for such a period is balanced by the failure of chief rivals Germany and the Netherlands to bridge the gaping talent gap.

Death, taxes and Capello's England

Fabio Capello's England squad comes with several un-surprises: Rio Ferdinand has been omitted, as has Liverpool's Steven Gerrard. Forgive me, but I need a couple of minutes to deal with that overwhelming shock. (Picks self slowly off floor). Injury has rendered Ferndinand a poor imitation of his former commanding self; Gerrard has played two matches off the bench for the season.

Again, Fabio Capello has failed to select form over reputation. Darren Bent or Bobby Zamora could start as Wayne Rooney's forward partner, especially given Capello's apparent disdain for Andy Carroll's lifestyle. Though Phil Jones has made the squad, Chris Smalling will not feature; neither will the demonstrably lethal Daniel Sturridge.

It is time to accept that only in the Three Lions is change not inevitable. Though Macedonia have played well - above expectation and even hope - their squad is the inverse of the England squad. Their unit is organized, motivated, have fewer skills and less cash. Don't give me the rubbish that England aren't motivated, even after the night which still plagues both Steve McLaren and Scott Carson's careers. Montenegro, who've played their football independently from Serbia only since 2006, has much more to gain than their established English counterparts.

This reason is why players like Sturridge, Welbeck and Smalling - Gaby Agbonlahor, for crying out loud - had to be featured in this match; each has something to gain from the exposure. One win (at home to England or away at Switzerland) will see Montenegro, granted nationhood from Serbia in 2006 and with the same population to Sheffield, secure a playoff spot for the 2012 European football Championships.

Of this, be very sure: the Montenegrin players care more about this match than the Three Lions. This is why Capello must be certain of selections; probably it is why he has erred to conservatism. Whether said nationalistic fervour is enough to counter players of a higher skill-set is why the matches are played.

England will face a team inspired by achievement while themselves facing public expectation bordering on verbal assault. The empowerment brought about by positive reinforcement is more stirring than fear of failure. The proof is in the pundit's bugbear Andy Carroll, who is yet to reproduce his Tyneside form for new club or country.

As well as reinforcing the generational change England so badly needs (Michael Owen and Joe Cole still talk about call-ups!), playing a front three of Rooney, Sturridge and Welbeck would scare almost any defence. That triad's pace alone would terrify most centre-backs, let alone the finishing skills all have shown this year.

Once again, England under Capello has missed a trick - and denied younger players the chance to prove themselves before a major tournament. Why should we expect any different?

Golden Generation or Fool's Gold?

Barring an almighty flop, England will qualify for Euro 2012. They'll do so in marginally convincing fashion, maybe even topping a group which while not robust, provided more challenging than first thought. Now, England manager Fabio Capello said he knew Tuesday's performance against Wales would be sub-par from watching the players warm up.

No-one's championing the current incarnation of the Three Lions as potential champions. Journalists and pundits alike admit their faith has been misplaced in the past and refuse to be fooled into again predicting glory for Blighty because, well, there's no reason to.

England's "golden generation" is marking out the last days of an ultimately disappointing series of International careers. This qualifying campaign is likely to be their last. The next major tournament, Euro 2012, will also probably be their last. They'll probably lose that tournament too, because Spain, Germany and the Netherlands are just that good. Winning won't be the only way the tournament is considered a success - even a fighting semi-final loss could be seen as progress.

They also won't win because of the simple fact England will not win anything until their Golden Generation has been removed almost entirely from the International picture. They have been enabled by Fabio Capello, who after insisting upon his appointment he would pick the best and most in-form players, has reneged and opted for the same old.

Given his reluctance to play England's best goalkeeper at the World Cup due to a self-inflicted lack of competitive experience, this means should the Italian actually want to win the European Football Championships, he should drop the ageing stalwarts of England's calamitous noughties. If he fears the consequences of playing untested players in major competitions, he should blood them now and embrace the possibilities ofered by English youth.

Perhaps he has started to do so already - through it's unclear whether through necessity or choice. Joe Hart is unquestionably the best 'keeper in England, if not one of the top five in world football. Gary Cahill looks almost certain to usurp Rio Ferdinand's position alongside the GG's leader, John Terry. When health allows, Andy Carroll and Jack Wilshere are the vanguard of the next generation. Chris Smalling's debut at right-back was impressive last week and he coped well with Gareth Bale on Tuesday.

The world and his dog already know what the Golden Generation can - or can't - do. If they were able to win a major championship, they would have done so already - or at least performed better. For nearly a decade England has struggled to combine their best two midfielders (Gerrard and Lampard) and boasted forwards unable to wreak the required havoc with inconsistent or inadequate supply. The Lions, while occasionally displaying flashes of individual skill, have been far less than the sum of their parts.

Although the season is young, the English players impressing most in the Premier League are of a different age to the current core of the team. It may be that generational change for its own sake isn't the catalyst for change, but form. Looking through the International lens, these players are unburdened by numerous England let-downs and deserve a chance to grow together as a unit before the Golden Generation exits in a series of faux, enforced and never-ending retirements brought on by a Quarter-final capitulation in Poland or the Ukraine.

This is hardly a revelatory argument. Capello's biggest contribution to English football could be to spot this fool's gold for what it is and create a new legacy for the country with a generation whose players could become (or already are) World Class, led by Hart, Smalling, Wilshere, Phil Jones and (gasp!) even Carroll. It is time to forcibly - and perhaps conspicuously and even painfully - retire those English player who have proven themselves ineffective on the International stage.

When winning is at stake, there is little room for sentiment.

Balanced Sports published on Soccerlens

Matthew Wood of Balanced Sports has been published again on Soccerlens - one of the world's pre-eminent football blogs -taking a look at Jermaine Pennant's ill-advised words on playing for England or for Ireland.