DUNGA DUNGA PARTY

Brazil have appointed a new coach.

Or an old coach.

A new old coach.

At any rate, it’s Dunga.

World Cup: Winners

Germany: They won the World Cup.

Oh, all right. It’s not so much that they won, so much as how. The manner in which they dismembered Brazil was one of the all-time great World Cup events, a real “Where were you when…” type of moment. The pace from the flanks was outstanding – especially from super-sub Schurrle and future great Thomas Muller, while they were along with France the most potent attacking force in the competition. The key elements of the home World Cup team from 2006 were able to finally summit the hump that’s been their seemingly-eternal undoing, while several of their squad seem set for 2016 and beyond – the Germans had an average squad age of 25 years and nine months, and the two senior citizens (Miroslav Klose and Roman Weidenfeller) ranking as two of their more expendable players.

Quietly winning World Cups

We have our final eight teams and with one major exception, they are much as expected: Brazil, the Netherlands, France, Belgium, Germany, Argentina, Colombia and Costa Rica. According to FIFA, who are wrong about nearly everything, even Costa Rica isn’t that great a surprise - the surviving teams are ranked no. 2, 3, 5, 8, 11, 15, 17 and 28 in their pre-tournament listings.

Among many stories of the Cup so far – including the success of incisive attacking, the failure of Asian teams and (sigh) Luis Suarez, one key factor that’s been overlooked has been the success of the understated. The ever-increasing queries as to Suarez's psychological capacity to cope with big occasions now creates even more questions for one-day fantasy sports owners.

Arguably the three most impressive teams this cup – the Dutch, French and Colombian outfits – are all helmed by managers with impressive track records yet who have been (remarkably, in some cases) quiet about their team’s chances. No sweeping statements, no auspicious team selections – simply an almost-implacable certainty in their players and tactics.

It helps that all three teams have enviable talent pools from which to draw – albeit reduced by the absence of some of the world’s best – but managing precocious talent requires more than rolling the ball out and saying “Let’s play” (sorry, ‘Arry). All three teams came to the Cup hopeful, but hardly expecting Finals berths – the Netherlands were tipped by many not to exit Group B, France took years to right their imposing battleship the friendly-fire that was Raymond Domenech, while the 2014 World Cup is Colombia’s first in nearly two decades.

Not only does a tournament tactical plan need to be suited to his players (Spain) and capable of defeating their opposition (Chile or Mexico), but that plan also needs to be communicated effectively.

That communication then influences – and is in turn influenced by – a coach’s public persona, which governs their interactions with the slavering world media. Louis van Gaal, Didier Deschamps and Jose Pekermann have done that in spades. France’s clinical forward play and late-game Dutch heroics are contrasted by Colombia’s languid brilliance, but the players are obviously playing for a coach and a system in which they collectively believe. The message is good – but its communication might be even better. 

2014 World Cup predictions

Predictions are a mug’s game – so here we go!

World Cup winners: Let’s just say it – Spain are great, they have been for years and over the past five years or so and despite being short a centre-forward they find ways to win. They truly are a team with no holes (especially with the acquisition of Diego Costa) and their manager knows how to get the most from them. The inability to win that plagued them for fifty years before the 2008 Euros has now been utterly reversed.

Finalist: Brazil. Boasting probably the iconic player of the tournament in Neymar, a fine supporting cast and a manager who borders on genius, the reason I haven’t selected them isn’t so much commentary on them but a reflection on how much faith I have in Spain (and Spanish football in general). However, this team depends more on three players (Thiago Silva, Luis Gustavo and Hulk) than you might suspect.

Third-place game: Germany vs Argentina, with Argentina coming out on top. The quality going forward that the Argentines have is mind-boggling: the best player on the planet, perhaps the fourth-best player on the planet (Aguero), and – according to the Guardian – the criminally-underrated 72^nd best player on the planet (Angel Di Maria – he may be the 72^nd “best”, but may rank in the top 20 in terms of actual impact).

This trident are backed by the wiles of Martin Dimichelis, Pablo Zabaleta, Javier Mascherano, while the elegance of Ezequiel Garay will shine in South American conditions. Unfortunately for Germany, a reliance on a goalscorer who is only two years away from using a Zimmer frame is just too great to achieve their lofty – and now increasingly tempered – ambitions.

Reflecting on the Socceroos' 30-man squad

Most suspected that Australia manager Ange Postecoglou would select a young side for the upcoming World Cup, but few perhaps were able to envisage the aspect of the 2014 Socceroos.

There are only a few readily recognizable faces in the squad, with Postecoglou true to his word in selecting ten players of his initial 30 from the A-League. As expected, there was no room for longstanding captain and lightning rod Lucas Neill, while the recent international exiles of Emerton, Holman, Schwarzer and Ognenovski mean the Aussies will fill their gold kits with an almost patriotically green squad.

Five Socceroos survive from Australia’s watershed 2006 campaign – Luke Wilkshire, Joshua Kennedy, Tim Cahill, Mark Milligan and Mark Bresciano – and they will be expected to provide most of the veteran professionalism required to extract the best from a group described best as youthful and perhaps even naïve.

Asia’s brotherhood of ageing bruisers are now no more than a bolded entry in gilt-edged history books. Australia is looking to the future with a special focus not on the 2014 World Cup but on success at next year’s home Asian Cup.

Bresciano, resident Old Man
courtesy: en.wikipedia.org

Pete Smith suggests this squad is nothing if not fresh and links to the Golden era of Socceroo football all but gone. Postecoglou has opted for dynamism and exuberance – especially in defensive positions – and a squad unjaded by long exposure commuting globally to represent a nation with only a passing interest in local football.

This is probably the best squad Postecoglou could select. The team also accurately represents Australia’s standing in the football world – there are big gaps between some numbers in FIFA’s rankings. Locals also seem happier with this lineup of exciting question marks than one highlighting staid veterans.

Featuring only two players from Europe’s big four leagues, whoever comprises the final 23-man roster will hardly be hampered by expectations. These Socceroos are also unscarred by past unrealistic hopes engendered by a wonderful run under Guus Hiddink, the ravages of age on bigger bodies or more recently, thumpings against quality opposition. What they have is pace, a new identity based around Postecoglou’s preferred passing game and a typical Australian passion for the contest.

While mandated by his superiors (and common sense) to empower a new youthful team, Postecoglou’s quick revamp may have hastened the departure of players like Schwarzer and Holman who may have played a key role in Brazil. Without these battle-scarred troops, the coach risks marking another band of younger, more impressionable players in the toughest slate of matches any team will play. With the Asian Cup (and the 2018 World Cup) more realistic targets for Aussie success, failure at the upcoming tournament might have longstanding consequences.

The flip side of callowness is a youthful confidence that serves sportsmen well. While there are only weeks to go until the tournament, Postecoglou must use that time to make sure the coin comes down on the right side for his young Socceroos.

Cometh the time, cometh the Neymar

The final 23-man squads for this summer’s World Cup have begun to trickle in. There have been few surprises but only a couple of mild head-turners – the presence of Sami Khedira, the absence of Obafemi Martins – but on the whole, the fans will see pretty much who the expected to at the Samba Cup.

In fact, the greatest debate has come from the host nation, as the team Luis Felipe Scolari announced on Thursday does not feature Kaka, Robinho, Lucas Moura, Philippe Coutinho or Lucas Leiva.

The team harkens back to last year’s victorious Confederations Cup team, featuring 16 players from that outfit. Unless midfielders usually accustomed to the park’s center are shifted outside, width will have to come from the full-back, while only three strikers have been listed (the monosyllabically-named trio of Hulk, Fred and Jo). This means this iteration of Brazil will rely heavily on attacking midfielders to score.

For attacking midfielders, just read: Neymar. Despite the presence of players like Paulinho and Oscar, this is Neymar’s team and it should be his tournament. The most precocious talent to come out of Brazil since Ronaldo, the €90 million man should view the next eight weeks as the perfect opportunity to make own this home tournament and join the elitest of the elite – Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo and Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

If Brazil are to succeed, he will have to. Always capable of the sublime, yet occasionally prone to flitting around the ephemera of games, Neymar will have to dominate his next seven games in a way he has only occasionally done in his young European career. A harmonious Brazil with Neymar as its focal point has every chance of lifting the trophy; should anyone else become Scolari’s muse, the team would appear slightly faceless. Neymar is Brazil’s biggest star and the Selecao need his force of personality to impel a long run.

The task of pulling the whole of Brazil along behind him must be Neymar’s. He has the understated arrogance of the best, the skills of no-one besides his clubmate Messi and perhaps most crucially of all, both opportunity and licence. It is his time to be the Alpha dog and act like a superstar – to do so would intensify local support ever further and imbue his teammates with faith in their go-to man.

While Kaka and Ronaldinho were for a time great, their careers have both featured a long, almost terminal, downward arc. It has been some time since we were gifted a transcendent Brazilian whose talent perpetuated for at least a decade – the World Cup of 2014 will hopefully present us with the latest in the genealogy that Pele begat.

More answers than questions for Socceroos

Usually, surrendering a 4-3 loss to opposition of a similar caliber to yourself throws up more questions than answers. Any answers that prove self-evident are also generally detrimental: player X can’t be trusted in a two-man midfield, tactics Y are ineffective against good teams or striker Z has no business even being considered for competitive international football.

Australia’s 4-3 loss to Ecuador in London on Wednesday actually saw the opposite occur. The three biggest questions facing the Socceroos concerned one of Mat Ryan or Mitch Langerak succeeding Mark Schwarzer, how would the defence would cope without the presence (or spectre) of Lucas Neill, and whether new coach Ange Postecoglu’s rejigged midfield and forward corps could produce goals relying on players so recently of the 99^th-ranked A-League.

Ninety minutes and seven goals revealed enough about Australia’s progress under Postecoglou for football fans in the Antipodes to be excited by the upcoming challenge of Chile, Spain and the Netherlands. Most of this good humour follows the success of players disdained by previous regimes (including Ivan Franjic and Matthew Spiranovic), the faith shown in youngsters Curtis Good and Massimo Luongo, and a gameplan that’s more than “don’t screw up”.

A few extra days of preparation and more game time for the likes of Rogic and Leckie means the also-rans of the late Osieck days may be a thing of the past.

More obviously, the Socceroos appear to have a vision for the future under a long-term coach, rather than the aspect of a team managed purely to embellish a resume.

The talent gap between Australian and their groupmates means that World Cup progression will be almost impossible. However, using that tournament to prepare for more accessible fish to fry – specifically, the Asian Cup at home in 2015. A result for Postecoglou in Brazil would be a return to the Australian teams of the past that were tough to beat and an inspired showing against class opponents.

The team are unquestionably in better shape than at the time of Holger Osieck’s departure late last year. The team now plays with a vision for future success rather than a fear of current failure.

Lucas Neill is the new Harry Kewell

Pick one: Sydney Olympic of the New South Wales Premier League, or Watford, promotion contenders in England’s League Championship.

Yup, Lucas Neill has landed on his feet.

Maybe.

Ageing Australia captain Neill needed a club in the worst way in order to lead the Socceroos to this year’s World Cup. There are zero bones about this – seventy-four games for six teams in four years since the last Cup is a telling statistic. Neill was, and perhaps still is, in serious danger of missing Ange Postecoglu’s squad after vehemently criticizing Australia’s young players following ex-manager Holger Osieck’s departure in October.

This week, he has been cut by manager Ange Postecoglu from the Socceroos’ squad for a warm-up game against Ecuador while simultaneously batting seemly eyelashes towards former club Blackburn Rovers and hometown Olympic.

Only in Australian gold does he still command respect for his abilities, if not for his personally-vaunted natural leadership. If he places so much currency in that leadership, it speaks ill of his stocks in this trait that each of his last four teams have not seen the same value. Many younger Socceroos would not share his own lofty opinions of his charisma.

After long stints at Millwall – a club with a long fondness for Aussies – and similarly-inclined Blackburn Rovers, Neill has become a shiftless free agent, roaming the globe in search of game time and ready coin. In the eight years since his defining day in the gold and green, Australia’s most publicized player has played for nine clubs with declining influence. Such has been his difficulty settling down that there have been few stories reporting on-field performance and many on possible landing spots, dressing-shed schisms and how – or if – he fits into a new generation of Socceroos.

Since the South Africa 2010, the defender has only managed over twenty games at one club, rocking up to 39 matches alongside compatriot Harry Kewell at Galatasaray during 2010-11. There is no coincidence that Cimbom’s assistant manager at the time was Guus Hiddink’s sidearm and noted Neill fan Johan Neeskens.

There’s an odd symmetry to the link-up with Kewell, for Lucas has now replaced Kewell as Australian football’s story-for-hire.

Kewell, the captain’s contemporary for Australia, Galatasaray (and nearly Liverpool), has a reputation for making the game all about Harry: overblown and poorly-timed injuries, startling recoveries, a soap-star wife, will-he-play-in-Australia questions, will-he-play-for-Australia questions, an ego with its own gravitational pull and, buried beneath those B-list celebrity trappings, sublime talent.

After making a name for himself as a hard-bitten defender capable of playing both on the right and centrally, Neill has become a similar figure of parody. His presence in the game is now less about his times on the pitch than when he is removed from it. The questions surrounding him are not as lurid as those flung at Kewell, but instead wonder if Neill can successfully contribute to a dressing room, if his inflated opinion of his leadership abilities are to his (and others’) detriment and if he even demands a place on merit in a Socceroo backfield.

Amidst all this, if he is match-fit, Neill probably still has a role to play. With Rhys Williams missing the tournament, Neill may be the best central defender Australia has to offer to a terrifying group in Brazil. He has an amount of that chest-out, chin-up defiance made so popular by John Terry that if not encumbered with egotism might prove invaluable in an Australian squad likely to include several players at their first Cup.

Watford will provide fourteen potential opportunities to prove to Postecoglu that he can contribute tactically and physically rather than solely with his Spartan brand of leadership.

Kruse and Williams to miss World Cup; Socceroos further taunted by Satan

Australians are used to the heat, but even those enduring eternal damnation in the fires of Hades might posit that this January has been atypically warm. While the Australian wilderness bakes, new Socceroos manager Ange Postecoglu must be sadly regarding his kitchen’s increasing temperature: first, he was dealt a truly petrifying group and in the past ten days, he has lost two key players for the onrushing World Cup.

en.wikipedia.org

Striker Robbie Kruse and midfielder/defender Rhys Williams have both suffered with season-ending injuries, blows which may perhaps define the World Cup for their countrymen.

The pair, Australia’s most eligible leaders, were the fresh faces of Postecoglu’s new Socceroos. The manager’s initial remit was to overhaul a staid national setup, with the two players most liable to benefit most from a divestment of “leadership” were Kruse and Williams. Mainstream Australia could identify with the pair – good players in excellent competitions, with the bonus of representing the Socceroos for long enough to be recognizable while not being members of the burnished Golden Generation.

The enforced withdrawals remove a vast element of class from any potential World Cup squad. While the A-League – and, indeed, most Asian football leagues – are improving in quality, there’s little question that the cream of Australian footballers ply their trade in Europe, and are regarded by Skippies with a certain amount of expectation. With Kruse and Williams sidelined, more of that responsibility sits awkwardly on the shoulders of unproven midfielders Tommy Oar, Tom Rogic and James Holland.

There is likely one silver lining from a dark week in Australian football: the squad that Postecoglu will select for Brazil will likely be comprised of very familiar names – old ones yukking up proto-retirement in the Emirati leagues (you’re excluded, Mark Bresciano), and younger players who appear in local competitions. That group includes interesting names such as left-back Ivan Franjic, Robbie Cornthwaite, Aaron Mooy and “Viduka-lite” Tomi Juric.

The post-World Cup boost Australian soccer received in 2006 was palpable around the then-nascent A-League, even though only one local made the squad. With half the squad in the general vicinity and a more unified outlook brought about by Postecoglu’s share-the-wealth game plan, Australian football can look upon the past week’s terror as an opportunity – albeit a sad one – to expand its brand and showcase the talent on display at home.

France's qualifying woes actually reflects well on FIFA - sort of

Today's UEFA World Cup playoffs will see France attempt to overturn a 0-2 deficit in hopes of qualifying for next year's football fiesta. Apparently local hopes aren't high, with one poll stating 84 percent of French citizens think the task will be too great for Les Bleus.

Ask the French Football Federation, and they'll intimate that the team shouldn't be in this position in the first place. This is because playoff seeding weights group-stage matches more heavily than friendlies. Because France drew a qualification group with four teams instead of five, Les Bleus were unable to achieve enough FIFA rankings points to demand a seed. Thus, Franck Ribery et al are now underdogs in a two-legged playoff against a quality Ukraine team who might boast one of the best home field advantages this side of Iceland. (And the US.)

France always contribute to the World Cup, whether because of sparkling football, a soliloquising coach or just because of their general combustibility factor (see: Anelka, Nicolas and Zidane, Zinedine). The Cup will miss them - as it will Zlatan Ibrahimovic or Cristiano Ronaldo, whichever player should not qualify. Plenty of teams are unlucky during the qualification process and thereby miss the Cup; four years ago, France got lucky when Thierry Henry's handball was instrumental in the Republic of Ireland missing out on a trip to South Africa.

FIFA are certain to want France to qualify for the sake of marketability and improved TV ratings, but may benefit indirectly by the absence of such a major nation. For many years - and especially since the farrago that the winning Qatar World Cup bid has been - the game's governing body has been seen as a laughable entity defined by factional and personal self-interest. Not "rigging the draw" to ensure all of Ibrahimovic, Ronaldo, Mexico and France's qualification is the first principled stand FIFA have made in years.

We can now celebrate Sepp Blatter and co. actually getting something right! Unfortunately, as recent events have come to light - predominantly surrounding football's newest/tiniest powerbroker, Qatar -  this stand is comparatively small. 

As will be the comfort taken by French football fans should Didier Deschamps’ men not triumph handsomely at the Stade de France this evening.

World Cup 2014 deserves Iceland, not Ronaldo or Ibrahimovic

The argument that the World Cup would be immeasurably damaged by the absence of either Zlatan Ibrahimovic or Cristiano Ronaldo is understandable, but bobbins. While the sublime skills of these players would be missed – but perhaps not as much as their personalities – one wonders if the presence of  the best players in the world is actually what makes the World Cup great.

One of the greatest players in history, Georgie Best, never played at a World Cup Finals, yet the tournament during his career moved to the forefront of football’s imagination. Some more modern greats have appeared at the Big Dance on multiple occasions, only to continually disappoint. (I’m looking at you, Wayne Rooney. And you, Ronaldinho).

Throughout the qualifying process both Cristiano Ronaldo and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (and the French national team) have trod many stages upon which they might shine. Either or both may still do so – probably to the other’s detriment. But the biggest platform doesn’t necessarily require the biggest stars; the World Cup is more about the sport’s unifying force than the paragon of the sport’s performance.

Seeding the Qualification and playoff draw may help ensure that the best players and most popular teams make it through to the World Cup finals, thereby protecting television rankings in major markets like France. But it does so at the expense of smaller nations who have achieved just as much (and, if relative populations are taken into account, more) to make the final phase of qualification.

If skill begets achievement and achievement deserves its place at the Cup, look no further than the minnows.

Put frankly, the 2014 World Cup would be greater for having Iceland – population 320,000 – enter the Big Dance for the first time in place of Cristiano or Zlatan doing so again. While moments of tremendous skill – often, but not always, perpetrated by the game’s greats – help improve the perceived quality of a tournament, this isn’t the reason why people watch the World Cup.

The Cup’s enduring appeal is a result of the multicultural and festive atmosphere that surrounds it, a product of nation playing nation at an event that occurs only every four years. The greatest and most dramatic moments from the last World Cup – which while perhaps not a great tournament technically, but absolutely engaging – were rarely a solo act of brilliance but the product of team play or the high stakes involved.

Moments of incredible technical prowess don’t make a World Cup. They help, certainly, but the reason the World Cup is the globe’s greatest sporting event isn’t necessarily soft-shoed talent – for that, look to the UEFA Champions League or any match featuring Lionel Messi – but the celebration of national pride and the unlikely stories behind the unfolding events.

Osieck not long for Socceroos' top job

With Australian football trying to regain its feet after a 6-0 pasting against Brazil last month, speculation has intensified over the future of Socceroo coach Holger Osieck. The German manager has appeared a man unable to take forward steps in the past twelve months, with his players effectively playing according to inconsistent tactics; even his greatest moment in 2013 was tarnished by a poorly-timed sexist joke. The only thing Osieck has definitively delivered for Australia has been PR calamity: perfunctory football run by a quasi-unlikable boss.

The only things in Osieck's favor - significant though they may be - include a truncated lead-in time for any new manager and the $1 million he's still owed by the Football Federation of Australia Frank Lowy. Although he remains unpopular, it still remains more likely than not that the manager incumbent will lead the likes of Brett Holman, Tommy Oar and Archie Thompson (!) to South America and, ultimately, disappointment.

Strangely, the single greatest reason for the appointment of a new boss might be a limited talent pool. With Australia's best 20 players almost set in stone, the only way a new gaffer might impact the side during the year-til-Brazil would be to engage players and encourage tactical buy-in. This is an aspect of management Osieck has found difficult, because his iteration of Australia simply hasn't had the identity of past sides. For years, Australia was a burly, physical outfit capable of controlling games through brute strength. As players like Oar and Tom Rogic replaced the Mark Vidukas and Scott Chipperfields of the world, the Socceroos lost some of that identity and therefore Osieck has settled for an inconsistent style.

A new manager - Leo Beenhakker, perhaps? Or Johan Neeskens? - might help develop a national team with an identity and a definite idea of how to play to type. However, with Lowy burnt twice by international bosses (neither Osieck nor his predecessor Pim Verbeek have been a real success), the inclination is that Osieck will retain his post for the Fiesta World Cup, but only that long.

Man United's Januzaj makes right choice: not to choose

The international break approaches us like the semi in Duel – from a speck in the distance, it sneakily becomes overwhelming. Today’s World Cup Qualifiers include important matches between the Euro 2012 hosts in Kharkov and a Sweden/Austria matchup that might determine Group C’s playoff entrant, while the contest in Mexico City could keep the hopes alive of both Panama and Mexico.

The European confederation enters the week’s festivities in a curious manner: five separate national Football Associations are “keeping tabs” on a single player, Adnan Januzaj, a winger helping to dispel Manchester United’s Moyesian malaise. It emerged on Monday that all of the Belgian, English, Serbian, Turkish, Albanian and embryonic Kosovar Associations feel as if the Premiership’s most babyfaced star might be tempted to play for their country.

It’s not unknown for a player to choose his nationality based upon his residence or passport in many sports, but football is undoubtedly the most high-profile. To take two higher-profile examples, Croatia forward Eduardo spent the first sixteen years of his life in Brazil, while James McCarthy was born and raised in Scotland but represents Ireland, the country of his grandparents. Tug-of-loves in International football occur about as regularly as they do on Coronation Street.

However, Januzaj’s situation is different. The player is only eighteen and hasn’t represented any country in youth football; although on the exterior it feels … unwholesome for him to play for the Three Lions after two years in the country, should he feel the appropriate affinity for England, Januzaj should be entitled to cast his lot in forever with them, after he has served the requisite time. The same goes for Belgium, Serbia, Turkey (who are notoriously convincing) and even Kosovo, pending … well, a bunch.

Adnan Januzaj should be absolutely allowed – and encouraged – to choose whoever he wishes. Unlike days past, nationality is a now a fluid concept; perhaps even it is a decision that young men should take more seriously than who they play their club football for. What would have the impact been on Wilfried Zaha – and the Ivory Coast – had he opted to play from them instead of England? For Januzaj there might be even more stark implications, what reaction would there be from Kosovars should he choose to play for Serbia?  Choosing a nationality, even just for a chance to play at the World Cup, should not be easy. Therefore, Januzaj is wise to take the time he needs rather than accepting whichever call-ups hit his door first.

The same choice has recently been faced by the likes of Victor Moses, Wilfried Zaha or Raheem Sterling. If only they had the foresight and wisdom to simply make a statement to the effect of Januzaj – I’ll play for who I like, when I’m ready – they might have saved themselves a significant amount of confusion. 

Socceroos bound for Rio despite managerial misgivings

After cutting it far too fine for comfort, the Socceroos can finally begin to prepare for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. An eighty-third minute headed goal from Joshua Kennedy sealed a 1-0 victory against old rivals Iraq and progression from the final round of Asian Qualifying. While the display against essentially a second-string side was hardly awe-inspiring, it was enough and the antipodeans now take their place alongside Japan, South Korea and Iran as AFC representatives at the Big Dance.

Uzbekistan and Jordan will compete in a two-legged playoff in early September for the final available Asian qualifying position. Whichever squad that makes it to Brazil will certainly prove a fillip to their nation, but may not impact the makeup of the second round: of the Asian clubs bound for Rio, Betfair.com has Japan the shortest of the long-odds at 126:1.

While it's taken nearly three years, Australia coach Holger Osieck seems to have finally hit upon the best makeup for his side.  Over his tenure, Osieck has dithered through an extensive playing roster without ever tipping his hand towards pragmatism (and continued appearances by the likes of Sasa Ognenovski and Alex Brosque) or an attempt at an exciting future featuring Tomas Rogic, Tommy Oar and Robbie Kruse. This has hurt the team, as players both young and old never seem to know whether they had roles to play in attaining a World Cup berth. Had the Socceroos not won last night, this lack of clear vision - and a penchant for sexist jokes - would have thrust the German onto perilously thin ice.

The lineups deployed in these past two crucial qualifiers suggest Osieck believes - as do the majority of the Green and Gold Army - that success lies not in wholesale youth or experience, but somewhere firmly betwixt. The crucial players in Tuesday evening's win were Oar, Rogic and resurrected thirtysomethings Ognenovski, Neill, Kennedy and Mark Bresciano. Had the Socceroos been without Al-Gharafa's Bresciano over the past six months, they would be - at best - face a nerve-racking playoff to cement next summer's Samba Tour.

After two years of curious selections, it may be that Osieck has happened luckily upon his best lineup at the critical time.  The alternate viewpoint states that Australia's mixed results are a function of rarely having an entire squad available due to the travel involved in representing Australia.

Educated onlookers favour the former, especially based on the teams Osieck selected during turgid losses to Jordan and a draw with Oman: the Socceroos relied too heavily upon a square, lateral gameplan that lacked in fluidity and impetus. The re-emergence of Oar and the boost Rogic and Kruse obtained from transfers has thrust a more joyful approach upon the men in gold, resulting in a 4-0 thumping of Jordan (the nation's biggest win in a match that mattered since their 6-0 thrashing of Uzbekistan in the 2011 Asian Cup) and now, ultimately, acceptance not just as the Socceroos' future, but also their present.

To paraphrase Napoleon: it's better to be lucky than good, and Osieck appears to have stumbled upon his most fruitful combination.

Despite the pressure of expectation, Osieck has recently displayed a happy recognition of when to make the correct substitutions at the most important moments. Last night, he got it right again - removing Australia's most effective forwards this decade (Tim Cahill and Brett Holman) and inserting forgotten man Kennedy - a man built to dominate Asian football - who scored only minutes after arriving on the pitch for the 'Roos for the first time since 2011

That he has finally, finally, seemingly integrated the talented youth into the cadre of hard-bitten vets and finally exemplified his once-vaunted game-management skills, the future looks brighter for Australian football than it did only a fortnight ago.

With the pressure now off and Australia hoping for an improvement from Pim Verbeek's ill-begotten 2010 World Cup.

Pim Verbeek finally shows he has balls by criticising mess he left

Former Socceroos coach Pim Verbeek has been quoted in Qatari media as saying Australian football faces a bleak period as the brightest stars in Australian football history are slowly extinguished.

Well, you'd know, Pim.

His Aussie tenure was marked by Viking-style honesty. Did you ever meet someone so honest that every conversation you had with them ended up revolving around your faults? That's honesty to a fault, and that's Pim Verbeek. And despite their limitations, players like Danny Allsopp and Archie Thompson were hardly likely to produce positive results after such brutal “encouragement”.

How's that "promotion" to Morocco's U-21s working out, Pim?
Courtesy dohasportsplusqatar.com

While his latest assertions verge towards the correct – developing Australian footballers aren't of the same quality as those of fifteen years hence – Australia should still qualify for Brazil if their squad is managed adeptly.

Part of the blame for this dearth of top-end talent can be laid at Verbeek's size twelves. The Dutchman controlled Australia for three years, culminating in a morbid showing in the group of terminal illness at the Big Dance in 2010. During that time, he was relentless in his beliefs: not living in Australia, playing defensive formations and deploying far-flung experience at the expense of A-League promise.

The defining moment of his tenure in Australia wasn't a match, result or player evolution but a formation. In the Socceroos' ignominious defeat to Germany in their first match in South Africa, the team lined up in a 4-6-0 with untested Richard Garcia leading the line from the centre of midfield (and playing hideously out of position).

The Green and Gold Army was not only content but joyful at his departure. His time at the top left football in Australia without a legacy; in a period in which Australian soccer should have been building on the wonderful success of their 2006 World Cup campaign, his refusal to integrate local youth into an aging team was not only short-sighted but almost wilfully negligent.

His half-hidden attempt to parlay short-term Socceroo success into a bigger job was hardly surprising, but still disappointing because he was bequeathed a good team with a chance to establish something of real substance.

Perhaps Verbeek now feels able to comment because he recognises some of the same traits in Australian football as he, it's one-time figurehead, displayed as boss.  Yes, the country's footballing stocks are going through a changing phase, but as a smaller football nation that's the norm.  It's also a phase that was delayed nearly four years during his time in charge.