2014 World Cup predictions

Predictions are a mug’s game – so here we go!

World Cup winners: Let’s just say it – Spain are great, they have been for years and over the past five years or so and despite being short a centre-forward they find ways to win. They truly are a team with no holes (especially with the acquisition of Diego Costa) and their manager knows how to get the most from them. The inability to win that plagued them for fifty years before the 2008 Euros has now been utterly reversed.

Finalist: Brazil. Boasting probably the iconic player of the tournament in Neymar, a fine supporting cast and a manager who borders on genius, the reason I haven’t selected them isn’t so much commentary on them but a reflection on how much faith I have in Spain (and Spanish football in general). However, this team depends more on three players (Thiago Silva, Luis Gustavo and Hulk) than you might suspect.

Third-place game: Germany vs Argentina, with Argentina coming out on top. The quality going forward that the Argentines have is mind-boggling: the best player on the planet, perhaps the fourth-best player on the planet (Aguero), and – according to the Guardian – the criminally-underrated 72^nd best player on the planet (Angel Di Maria – he may be the 72^nd “best”, but may rank in the top 20 in terms of actual impact).

This trident are backed by the wiles of Martin Dimichelis, Pablo Zabaleta, Javier Mascherano, while the elegance of Ezequiel Garay will shine in South American conditions. Unfortunately for Germany, a reliance on a goalscorer who is only two years away from using a Zimmer frame is just too great to achieve their lofty – and now increasingly tempered – ambitions.

World Cup Predictions: Winners

In the finale of our seven-part World Cup prediction series, Matt goes head-to-head with Subash Jayaraman and Dave Siddall in selecting their World Cup winners.

Part 1: Leading Wicket-taker
Part 2: Leading Runscorer
Part 3: Surprise Packet
Part 4: MVP
Part 5: Dream Team
Part 6: Ace in the hole

Matt Wood

As much as the West Indies have (hopefully) crawled out from a decade and a half of shame and the tournament has Bangladesh playing a lot at home, as much as I’d like to pick a smaller nation making the second round, I just don’t see it. The minnows will leave early, leaving us with the obvious choices again. India and Sri Lanka are justifiable favourites due to their home-ground advantages, while South Africa’s finishing school for cricket talent has no equal. The bet here is the Proteas don’t have the attack to really exploit the conditions – Steyn is quality but supporting cast Tsotsobe, Morkel and Parnell aren’t favoured by the slower decks. Australia can’t be discounted – they’ve been impressive in swatting away England’s One-Day side, a team who seem to lack something that they can’t identify. I’m going to bet on Sri Lanka - India is incredibly reliant on the bowling penetration of Zaheer Khan and Harbhajan Singh. Should one of those two break down or play like a honker, India could really struggle to restrict opposition scoring. Sri Lanka have the spin of Murali and Mendis, the pace of Malinga and the all-round talents of Angelo Mathews.

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Subash Jayaraman

This is the third time the world cup is being held in the Indian subcontinent. The last two times it was held (1987 and 1996), two subcontinent teams made it to the semis (India and Pakistan in 1987) and (India and Sri Lanka in 1996) with Sri Lanka winning it all in 1996. I am inclined to continue with this theme and expect India and Sri Lanka to get to the semi-finals this time as well. The two other semi-finalists, in my opinion, are going to be Australia and South Africa. (But I am very tempted to include either Pakistan or Bangladesh). I do think however, India and Sri Lanka will get to the finals. Sri Lanka does seem to be the most balanced side in the entire tournament and they are playing in home conditions. However, India beat them fair and square in Sri Lanka the last time they played ODIs. But the finals are going to be played in front of Tendulkar’s home crowd in Mumbai. So, I am going to go with my gut, heart and all other internal organs, and hedge my bet on India.

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David Siddall

In my honest opinion there are 5 countries that have both the ability and consistency (sorry Pakistan!) to win the 2011 Cricket World Cup. They are Australia, England, India, South Africa and Sri Lanka. Of the 5, it is the perennially underachievers chokers of South Africa and India that have the finest XIs on paper and also the form to be considered the main contenders. In Sehwag and Ghambir, and Smith and Amla, they have the finest opening batting partnerships in the game with one claiming the title for most explosive and the other for most solid. In Kallis and Tendulkar they have two of the greatest ODI batsmen of all time. A further glance down their respective orders and you have batsmen that combine capabilities to play long innings with intimidating levels and varieties of strokeplay.

So what is there to separate these two sides? The answer lies in the bowling department. Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel have formed a devastating partnership capable of tearing through a side. As much as Zaheer Khan stars for India, fans would have to concede that South Africa hold in the edge in terms of the quicks on show. India meanwhile will feel they have the edge in terms of spinners on show. Johan Botha is an accomplished spinner but cannot be considered an attacking option. Unlike Botha, Harbhajan Singh is just that. India are also blessed with numerous spinners in their squad with Ashwin, Pathan, Raina, Yuvraj and Sehwag all providing options in favourable conditions.

The case for both teams is remarkably strong but I favour the side with bigger wicket-taking threat to come out on top. With that in mind, it has to be the biggest chokers of all South Africa to turn the tables on history and win the 2011 Cricket World Cup.

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World Cup Predictions: Ace in the Hole

With our penultimate World Cup Predictions, Matt, Subash and Dave examine who's the player flying under the radar ... the perennial Ace in the Hole.

Part 1: Leading Wicket Taker
Part 2: Leading Runscorer
Part 3: Surprise packet
Part 4: MVP
Part 5: Dream Team


Matt Wood

Kevin Pietersen. Oh, sorry, you said ace-in-the-hole. There isn’t a lot of publicity over a few guys who could shape the tournament. South Africa, while not having a spinner, do boast one of the short form’s great slow bowlers in Johan Botha, who should be nicknamed “Immodium” for his ability to restrict runs. His defensive mindset and shrewd field placements have allowed him to open the bowling in occasional T20s. Of the three, he’s most likely to be the trump which has the greatest effect in the tournament’s latter stages. The other two can be solid but may not be game-changers: New Zealand’s Tim Southee is still very young, but he bowls real swing and could help New Zealand back from the brink of world patsydom. The climate, especially at night, will suit him. Tim Bresnan is another who should be suited by the swing-conducive climes of India and has displayed his ability by taking truckloads of wickets in Australia on pitches unsuited to bowling of his style. He has the game to really break some of the best top-orders in the world.

Posted 17th February: One player who's escaped a lot of attention is William Porterfield, who opens the batting for Ireland. He's scored heaps of runs and of the minnows, he seems most likely to be a "breakout" candidate.

More well-known players from the affiliate nations out to impress include the Netherlands' Ryan ten Doeschate, Rizwan Cheema of Canada, Elton Chigumbura & Tatienda Taibu of Zimbabwe.

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Subash Jayaraman

A man whose career is at crossroads and a solid tournament would resurrect his seemingly sliding career – Yuvraj Singh. There has been a mountain of questions regards to fitness, mental focus and attitude towards his cricket. This would be biggest platform for him to respond to his doubters. Play a few match winning innings and bowl his left arm spin that is tailor made for the slower pitches of India, he will regain the confidence that is sorely needed for this gifted cricketer.

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David Siddall

The ‘Ace in the Hole’ refers to the break-out player of the tournament, the player that no one is talking about but will star in the event. The issue with the selecting the Ace is that cricket has become so globalized and so ubiquitous that it is hard for a modern day player to just slip under the radar or for a young star to rise so prominently and not get noticed. Because of this, my ace in the hole is coming from way left field.

He’s a forgotten man in world cricket. He probably won’t even start for his country. But not too long ago he became the quickest man ever to reach the 50 ODI wickets mark in 19 matches at a staggering average of around 10. Back then he was a mystery spinner who mesmerized with his mix of offies, googlies, leg-breaks and carom balls. Bowling wicket to wicket, constantly attacking the stumps he claimed a disproportionate amount of lbws compared to your average bowler. But that was 2008 and he appears to have been figured out since with batsmen getting to know his variations and playing him more like a medium pacer. He still takes wickets but they are thinner on the ground.

Whether Ajantha Mendis can rekindle the form he showed when he burst onto the scene is completely up in the air. Whether he can even find his way into Sri Lanka’s starting lineup is also less obvious. Whether there is space for two spinners in the side is open to debate. Murali is number 1 and Dilshan does a good job as a part time spin option. Mendis also has competition from the slow left-armer Rangana Herath in that department. If Mendis does get his berth in the side who knows what might happen? This writer enjoyed his passage into the history books in 2008 and wanted to see plenty more of him but is still waiting for his wish. Maybe Ajantha Mendis can be a great addition to the few attacking spinners left in the limited overs game…

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World Cup Predictions: Surprise Packet

Part three of our eight-part series with Subash Jayaraman, Dave Siddall and our own Matthew Wood sneaking a peek at who's primed to surprise on the subcontinent.

Matt Wood

It’s probably telling that with the amount of TV and internet coverage the game gets these days, there really isn’t the bolter-in-the-pack that we’ve come to expect from past tournaments. The glory days of most sports relied on hearing what others had done rather than see them for yourself, and their mystique only increased. With UDRS, slo-mo, hotspot and hawkeye the game’s been robbed of some of that mystery. Flat out, it may be the biggest and most satisfying surprise of the tournament could be an Australian run to the final or even the title. As a cricketing nation they’ve been told it’s well past bedtime, but with Tait, Lee and Johnson they have three bona-fide matchwinners. Unfortunately for the Skippies, they’re all bona-fide match-losers as well if their accuracy doesn’t hold up. The lack of a first-class spinner could hamper them, but of all the teams selected really only India, New Zealand and Sri Lanka have world-class ODI tweakers.

WC Surprise package: Australia?

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Subash Jayaraman

Ahmed Shehzad. I watched the entire Pakistan-New Zealand ODI series. (Don’t ask me why, I just did). Of all the Pakistani batsmen, the only one that oozed confidence was this young lad Shehzad. May be it was the confidence that he was only facing the New Zealand bowlers or he was secure in his opening slot since the back up to him would’ve been Kamran Akmal, I do not know, but his batting seems to be destined for greatness. I expect him to score at least 1 century in the tournament and will not be surprised if it is two and is featured in the top 5-7 of highest run getters.

WC Surprise Package: Ahmed Shehzad

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David Siddall

It seems almost bizarre to consider this player and team for such a title, especially when you consider their standing within the game. Nevertheless, it’s going to be done. The team in question has won 4 out of the 9 World Cups that have ever been played and they have also won the last 3 World Cups in 2007, 2003 and 1999. Despite such an imposing history, very few people are tipping Australia to win the upcoming tournament. They might have been humbled in dominant fashion by England in the recent Ashes encounter, but this perhaps shouldn’t be an indicator of their one-day prowess. As the crushing series victory over England which shortly followed testifies, Australia are a very tight one day unit with ability in every department and a winning mentality.

One of the brightest sparks to emerge from that one day series is the return of the sprightly looking Brett Lee who at 34 has had dreadful luck and been forced to retire from Test cricket. His energy on the field does not reflect his age. He is as hungry and as fired up as a pit-bull terrier you locked up, went on holiday and forgot to feed for a week.

Brett Lee is desperate to reclaim his standing as one of the most devastating one-day bowlers in the world and he will be the bright spark that Australia need if they are to make a serious impression in the World Cup.

WC Surprise Package: Brett Lee and Australia

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World Cup Predictions: Leading Run Scorer

In part two of our seven part series, Dave Siddall of World Cricket Watch, Subash Jayaraman of The Cricket Couch and our own Matthew Wood evaluate who they think will score the most runs in this year's World Cup.

Matt Wood

In order to be the leading runscorer, a batsman must have three things going for him: a top of the order role, a successful team giving them plenty of opportunities to score and the ability to read and respond to flat subcontinental pitches. So of all the obvious candidates, that eliminates Chris Gayle. Other than that, all the usual suspects have form at being able to master lower-tempo pitches: Gambhir, Amla, Watson, the Little Master, Sangakkara and Dilshan. Dilshan’s form has been consistently excellent over the past two years so has a strong chance to carrying off top honours, while both Gambhir and his opening partner Sehwag will score heaps. Gambhir’s more circumspect and as such, probably more liable to convert his runs into big, big scores. Man-crush and all, you can bet your bottom dollar that Dave’s going to opt for one of the top two, Amla, so I’m happy to plump for another Sri Lankan: their maestro captain Kumar Sangakkara. Had he been born in any other country he’d probably receive his just due: possibly the second-best keeper/batsman ever to play the game.

WC Leading Run-Scorer Prediction: Kumar Sangakkara

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Subash Jayaraman

The requirements to be a top run getter needs those of the top wicket takers (deep run, weak opposition) and in addition, someone batting at the top of the order. That puts the following on my radar: Shane Watson, Ricky Ponting, Tillekaratne Dilshan, Upul Tharanga, Mahela Jayawardene, Kumar Sangakkara, Gautam Gambhir, Virender Sehwag, Hashim Amla, Graeme Smith, Jacques Kallis, Kevin Pietersen, Mohammed Hafeez, Ahmed Shehzad, Chris Gayle, Tamim Iqbal and well of course, Sachin Tendulkar. Of these, only Sachin Tendulkar has actually accomplished the task of being the top run getter in a tournament. Twice (1996 and 2003). Sehwag, Dilshan, Tharanga, Ryder, Hafeez, Iqbal and Shehzad are very good, aggressive and explosive batsmen and can single-handedly take the game away from the opposition, but I do not think are as consistent as is required to be top run getters. That leaves us with the usual suspects. Since I already picked Muralitharan based on the “swan song” theme, let me pick Tendulkar as the top run getter as this surely is the last time he will be playing ODIs for India. Plus, there is an oddity that caught my eye. He is the top run getter every other tournament. Since he wasn’t the highest run maker in 2007, surely 2011 sets up for him.

WC Leading Run-Scorer Prediction: Sachin Tendulkar

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David Siddall

One billion people in the subcontinent and probably even more elsewhere are hoping for a fairytale World Cup for the “little master” Sachin Tendulkar, the most complete one day batsmen of all time. Sachin could easily hit 3 centuries in the tournament bringing up his 100 hundreds in all formats of cricket and guide India to a famous World Cup victory. You couldn’t write the script any better. You can’t help but feel that it is even likely when you consider the Bradmanesque twilight years of his career. But another candidate likely to pile on the runs in the sub-continent is a South African in a similar rich vein of form by the name of Hashim Amla. Averaging 60 in ODIs at a strike rate of 93 and the ability to bat right through the inning (as a conversion rate of 7 hundreds and 12 fifties testifies), he can only be described as a run machine. From the turn of 2010 to the present day he’s scored 1300 runs at an average of 72 and recorded 6 centuries.

Other notable candidates can be found and are scattered throughout the meaty middle orders of India, South Africa and Sri Lanka along with the likes of in form Jonathan Trott and Shane Watson. You also have a feeling that KP decides to show up when something is actually at stake. But Hashim Amla is the one to watch in these stakes for me.

WC Leading Run-Scorer Prediction: Hashim Amla

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