Barcelona pay penalty for being smartest guys in the room

The news that Barcelona have been hit with a two-window ban on signing new players for improperly acquiring international players under the age of 18 is a second legal strike against the Catalan giants.

With the book-fudging purchase of Neymar costing the club approximately €90 million and a President, the repeated infraction of FIFA’s policies governing youth transfers suggests the club’s boardroom sees the Blaugrana as above the pesky laws of an admittedly arcane and (mostly) impotent governing body.

The precise nature of the sanctions are yet to become clear; questions remain as to whether deals already completed (such as the purchases of Victor Valdes’ replacement, Marc-Andre ter Stegen, and another “Next Messi”) will in fact be voided. Were this to happen, the club would find itself very much galloping down diarrhea drive without a paddle – or a boat.

This year, the club will lose Valdes and their own personal Heimdall Carles Puyol. Rumours persist as to the eyes Xavi Hernandez makes at MLS, and specifically NYCFC. Thiago Alcantara, perhaps the most exciting prospect to exit La Masia in years, now plays for Bayern Munich. In the event of a Gerard Pique injury, next season’s defensive nucleus could conceivably be the immortal trio of Jose Manuel Pinto, Javier Mascherano (meh, as a central defender) and one of Alexandre Song (ugh) or Marc Bartra (more palatable and infinitely more likely).

Pep Guardiola and his loveable bunch of mosquitos often played the role of the “goodies” in the black and white dramedy of La Liga football – which side was which coming very much down to the conscience of the individual spectator. While beholding to a pattern of play and players who have “always been Barca”, this on-field levity, utterly unapparent in their great domestic rivals, is now to have masked a questionable recruitment policy the club thought would (or could) be overlooked.

They were going to out-Wenger the continent. Illegally – those La Masia graduates weren’t all homegrown, but sapling transplants like Lionel Messi. Primary education matters – if a child is not taught early to read and write, how can they be expected to perform trigonometric calculus?

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All over the footballing world, teams rise and fall – only precious few stay perpetually as true Champions’ League threats. When clubs rise – especially as high as Barca have – questions are usually asked as to the fairness of such a rise: people now regularly and rightly ask how much of its magickal, whimsical appeal football loses when run by stock analysts. While Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain now field two of the more star-studded outfits in the game, there is something unseemly about the nouveau-riche attitudes that have taken them there.

Barcelona has competed at the most elite of levels with a squad of guys who’ve played together for many years, through the club’s academy and reserve squads. However, some of these kids – including the “Korean Messi” – were rather more adopted than whelped. While this isn’t quite as uncouth as flashing great wads of cash, it may actually be more subversive in robbing grassroots football of its youthful optimism.

Neymar to Real Madrid - but why?

It is rumoured that Santos star Neymar will join Spanish giants Real Madrid next offseason, finally consummating a courtship of two years. The Brazilian, recently tipped by Pele as the next "best player in the world", is thought to have agreed a transfer worth somewhere in the region of €53 million. The deal is likely to slap him firmly amongst the elite of footballing salaries.

Such powerful economic impetus for a move notwithstanding, it's worth asking why Neymar has (allegedly) chosen to sign for Real Madrid. The reasons he'd want to play for los blancos are obvious and plentiful: there are no larger clubs; though questions still remain about their level of debt, it's thought Real have the cash to fulfill Santos' expansive financial requests; they have the ability to glorify Neymar both fiscally and with fan-love; and reasonably expect multiple years of contention for the La Liga and Champions' League titles.

Though good reasons, they should all be dwarfed by one contrary reason: that Neymar will find it exponentially more difficult to realise his immense potential at Real than at many - perhaps any - other large clubs. His star burns bright, but will it continue to do so amongst so many others?

Courtesy: tntmagazine.com

Real's collection of attacking talent is probably the greatest in the world: from Cristiano Ronaldo, through Angel di Maria, Karim Benzema, Gonzalo Higuain, Kaka, Mesut Ozil - the list goes on. Neymar likely replaces Benzema or Higuain, but it's hardly a given. Also, competition for the "alpha dog" role will bring out either the best, or the worst in Ronaldo.

To quote a famous Time Lord, where better to hide a tree than a forest?

The Galactico model favoured by current Real Madrid president Florentino Perez acquires global superstars at exorbitant costs to in theory create an unstoppable sporting juggernaut powered by goals and replica jersey sales. It has been moderately successful, but recently inferior to Barcelona's homeslice talent. Certain galacticos have been successes; others ... less so.

Though football's list of richest clubs still includes Real, Barca, Juventus and the EPL's aristocracy - those now most readily reaching for their hip pockets are upstart clubs fuelled by natural resources like Anzhi Makhachkala, Manchester City and Paris Saint Germain. At any of the world's biggest and richest clubs, Neymar would be the feature attraction, allowed to develop and blossom into a player for the ages. Then he could move to "dream club" Real.

Cristiano Ronaldo needed time to develop into "the guy" at Manchester United; Messi only became fully appreciated after Ronaldinho exited the Camp Nou. Everywhere, except perhaps for at the Spanish giants, Neymar would get that time and opportunity.

Where better to shroud a star than amongst others?

Mourinho's greatest failing a lack of discipline - but not from him

Jose Mourinho has many gifts. For organisation, for having team buy into a philosophy, for quick quips and irritation. It's perhaps fitting that a master of hyperbole has been pilloried by the more rampant sensationalists in the British media concerning his antics during and after the Spanish Supercup.

courtesy: topnews.in

As the four Clasicos in seventeen days last season proved, these teams have no love for each other - on or off the pitch. After their loss in the Champions' League Semi-Final in (April/May), Mourinho made statements which, if he had his time again, would probably re-consider. Barcelona thought about legal action, but opted against it.

After a horrendous tackle by Marcelo on Barcelona new boy Cesc Fabregas, benches cleared. Mourinho is now under scrutiny for an incident involving Barcelona assistant Tito Villanova (bear in mind this analysis does come from the Daily Mail, well known for sensationalism). The Sun - also known for siutational amplification - also suggested Mourinho is approaching Real's tolerance threshold. Even the more moderate Daily Telegraph and The Independent questioned The Special One's tenure at the Bernabeu.

Comments branding Barcelona "a small team" didn't help and, alongside his paranoiac mania following their Champions' League exit, contribute to an image of a man either on the edge or who plays mind games at a black belt level. His comments more and more mimic those of dictators - strong, usually charismatic leaders with a firm grasp on a tiny part of the world - but from the outside viewed as small-time.

courtesy: tardis.wikia.com

More accurately, his words resemble Davros' - "Once more my Daleks will rule the universe.  Once more they will become the Su-preeeeeme Beeeeinnnngggs!".  If only it wasn't for that pesky Doctor Messi/Xavi/Iniesta.

In today's Guardian, a spokesman for Los Merengues' manager says his role in the stoush was "defending Real Madrid's interests". The Independent - and Paul Hayward - have asked if Jose is still worth his antics. When each match between the two best teams in football descends into a melee, it is a fair question.

Even Real Madrid, a club not known for patience and lenience with their managers, would be rash to fire the man who has transformed them from also-rans into an outfit who will challenge Barcelona. The side has apparently improved markedly over the offseason, fuelled by more spending (Fabio Coentrao and Nuri Sahin) and another year's acclimation to Mourinho's tactics. In the match in question, most observers had them slightly edging the match until defeated by a typically classy Messi goal.

Jose may feel pressure to succeed and consequently just be acting out more. This is unlikely given his past posts and the high expectations he must have shouldered there. He may feel the mindset of his squad is so fragile it can't bear a defeat to Barcelona without attendant, media-diverting controversy. Maybe his ego has become so large that he's lost some perspective. Any increase in his antics is due to a combination of all three factors.

It would be folly to ignore the lack of discipline and leadership Jose Mourinho has received from the Real Madrid front office. Perhaps more than anything else, this has empowered Mourinho to say and do what he likes. Given his results so far, it would be wrong if he were made to fear for his job. But he should be made to respect discipline - UEFA's, La Liga's or from Perez himself.

Since his Chelsea days at least, Mourinho's modus operandi has been to instill a siege mentality about his players, defending them from media scrutiny and removing any pressure from his boys by deflecting or absorbing it himself. By doing so, he's produced remarkably successful units at Porto, Chelsea, Inter Milan and now Real. At the Bernabeu, however, once former General Manager and blatant Jose-antagonist Jorge Valdano was removed, he's received only minimal leadership from the front office. He has not been censured for his actions, some of which should have desperately deserved it.

Indeed by removing Valdano, Mourinho's only internal source of dissent, Real President Florentino Perez has actually served as an enabler. Corporate, family or political leadership - real leadership - comes not from money, but from making tough decisions. In this, Florentino Perez has failed as Real Madrid President. While Jose Mourinho is mandated to bring success to Real Madrid on the pitch, it is Perez's responsibility to make sure he does so in a manner worthy of his institution.

To draw parallels from politics, were Perez the head of a government and failed to adequately discipline a general he would risk his own career. In a non-entertainment business role - well, just look at what happened at the News of the World. When people whose job it is to get results don't get guidance from above their practices can slip into the unorthodox, unpleasant and sometimes the illegal.

Jose Mourinho hasn't done anything illegal during his status at Real. What he has done, though, is get (some) results and inflame an already-heated rivalry by being boorish. If Florentino Perez is happy to make that tradeoff, theirs shall be a match made in heaven. The only alternative is for Perez to man up and act like the leader his position says he should be.

Scoring Stats - Messi and Ronaldo lead all (again!)

Any statistical analysis of a sporting event can go down one of two main routes. Firstly, they could be raw data, usually expressed as totals or percentages. In football, examples include the number of total corners a team concedes (or forces), the number of minutes a player is on the park for over the course of a season or even how many points a team accumulates. The second format usually depends on rate - goals per possession, corners per dribble, dribbles per game or even passing completion percentage.

Both have their uses, but as football (and other sports) become more and more subject to the moneyball theory and so-called "advanced metrics", rate has taken precedence over simple raw data. For instance in football, teams play at different tempos - one team may slowly build from the back while other teams favour quick incisive bursts. A team with a "lump it up" and lose possession philosophy is likely to create less chances by dint of not having the ball as often. It's fortunate we have two very visible clubs with vastly different methods of operating to easily point to: Barcelona dominate possession no matter who they play, while almost any team coached by Sam Allardyce feels more content without the ball than with it.

A Scoring Stat is defined as any goal or assist a player is credited with, therefore a player's total thereof is the number of goals and assists he accumulates over a season. So far we've examined trends throughout Europe, which players were individual total leaders and finally how much the dependence on a particular player varied across the four professional divisions in one country. Now it is time to evaluate which players provided the greatest lift, per game, to their individual teams.

Unfortunately, access to minutes-played data was very difficult to come by, so this is evaluated according to the number of games in which a player participated. In this analysis, only Team Leaders are evaluated (players who led their club in total Scoring Stats) - a follow-up analysis will include all of Europe.

Europe's Top Team leaders by match

League	Team	Player	Games	%	Stats per Game
La Liga	Barcelona	Lionel Messi	33	0.516	1.485
La Liga	Real Madrid	Cristiano Ronaldo	35	0.490	1.429
EPL	Arsenal	Robin Van Persie	25	0.347	1.000
Serie A	Udinese	Antonio Di Natale	36	0.538	0.972
Bundesliga	Bayern Munich	Mario Gomez	32	0.370	0.938
Serie A	Napoli	Edinson Cavani	35	0.542	0.914
Serie A	AC Milan	Zlatan Ibrahimovic	29	0.385	0.862
Serie A	Inter Milan	Samuel Eto'o	35	0.435	0.857
EPL	Man City	Carlos Tevez	31	0.433	0.839
EPL	Tottenham	Rafael Van der Vaart	28	0.382	0.750
EPL	Man United	Dimitar Berbatov	32	0.308	0.750
Bundesliga	Koln	Milivoje Novakovic	28	0.426	0.714
Bundesliga	Hannover	Didier Ya Konan	28	0.408	0.714
La Liga	Espanyol	Pablo Osvaldo	24	0.370	0.708
Bundesliga	Freiburg	Papiss Demba Cisse	32	0.537	0.688
Average	Levante's	Felipe Caciedo			0.559

Complete table can be found at Balanced Sports Scoring Stats page.

Once again, this only goes to highlight how far clear of the pack Leo Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo remain as footballers. While the average Team Leader contributes about what teams look for from an effective, workmanlike striker (the adage goes "a goal every second game" and remember there are probably some relatively below-average Strikers leading their teams here), they nearly triple that average. After them, the next best - the perpetually injured Van Persie - only managed to average one goal or assist per match.

These totals, however, could be swayed for total numbers. Both Real and Barca scored a boatload of goals during season 2010-11. To evaluate the top fifteen clubs by goals-per-game across Europe is telling:

This table - comprised nearly completely of the usual suspects - leads us to suggest that while Messi and Ronaldo's influence is remarkbable, it is in part due to the increased number of goals their clubs score. This of course gives rise to the perpetual (and now, frankly, boring) Messi versus Ronaldo debate and prompts us to pose the "chicken or the egg" question once more - do they top the individual list because of their team rate, or do their teams top the goals-per-game table because of their phenomenal skill? Unfortunately the answer isn't easily forthcoming but suffice to suggest that both generate remarkable amounts of opportunities for their teams, and benefit from their teammates doing the same.

Finally, a note about VfB Stuttgart. The Reds finished a disappointing twelfth in the Bundesliga this year, yet pounded in 1.76 goals per game without having a player in the top 45 team leaders by rate. Their most productive forward by totals as Martin Harnik with 15 total scoring stats, who contributed to a quarter of their scores (averaging less than one scoring stat every two matches).

Stats for all players, teams and leagues can be found at Balanced Sports' Scoring Stats page.
Image courtesy: www.nevercaptainnickybutt.com

Scoring Stats - Europe's most important players

A few months ago - just before his untimely suspension before the Milan derby with Inter - it became known that Zlatan Ibrahimovic had either scored or assisted on an astonishing 45+ percent of all AC Milan's Serie A goals.

Which got me asking which players were the most crucial to their club's fortunes throughout the course of season 2010-2011. Such estimates had to be quantifiable, so Scoring Stats (goals plus assists) became a measuring stick for players in the four major leagues throughout Europe.

Almost immediately, there were nuances to such plain numbers - a player's role defined their total. Some, like Dimitar Berbatov or Freiburg's Papiss Demba Cisse acted chiefly as "finishers", while others like Everton's Leighton Baines or Kaiserslauten's Christan Tiffert performed the role mainly as providers.

So interesting was this matrix that they became something of a minor obsession! The results for all of Europe (and all four English Leagues) can be found on the Balanced Sports Scoring Stats page. Once again Cristiano Ronaldo agonizingly trails Lionel Messi - although he contributed more goals, Messi's contribution to Barcelona's scoring ranked significantly higher than that of the Madridista. While Ronaldo does all he can to be the world's best (and Messi is), they are both surrounded by remarkable talents and as such it's curious to find their clubs so reliant upon them.

The Premier League proved much less reliant on one player than the other three major leagues in Europe. In England, the average team leader in Scoring Stats contributed to only 31.9% of his team's goals. In Germany it was higher still at 35% while Italy was higher still at 35.9%. Spain, however, mostly due to the efforts of those two marvellous players (and Villarreal's Giuseppe Rossi) find one player contributing much more to team scoring - a whopping 37.3%. This only serves to show how extraordinary the efforts of players like Bologna's Marco Di Vaio were, who managed a goal or assist in a phenomenal 60% (!) of his team's scores this year.

Here, in order of percentage input to their team's scoring, are the ten most irreplaceable players in Europe:

League	Player	Team	Games	Goals	Assists	Total	Team Goals	%
Serie A	M. Di Vaio	Bologna	39	19	2	21	35	0.600
Bundesliga	T. Gekas	Frankfurt	31 (3)	16	2	18	31	0.581
Serie A	E. Cavani	Napoli	32 (3)	26	6	32	59	0.542
Serie A	A. Di Natale	Udinese	35 (1)	28	7	35	65	0.538
Bundesliga	P. D. Cisse	Freiburg	32	22	0	22	41	0.537
La Liga	L. Messi	Barcelona	31 (2)	31	18	49	95	0.516
La Liga	C. Ronaldo	Real Madrid	32 (2)	40	10	50	102	0.490
Serie A	S. Eto'o	Inter Milan	35	21	9	30	69	0.435
EPL	C. Tevez	Man. City	30 (1)	20	6	26	60	0.433
La Liga	G. Rossi	Villarreal	35 (1)	18	5	23	54	0.426

You can see who led each team in Europe at Balanced Sports' Scoring Stats page.

Marco Di Vaio image courtesy: www.footballitaliano.com, image of Leighton Baines courtesy: sportydesktops.com

Balanced Sports on Soccerlens; Has Cristiano Ronaldo Evolved too far?

Balanced Sports has once again been published on the leading soccer blog Soccerlens. Matthew Wood examines whether Cristiano Ronaldo has evolved too far to be credited as the World's best player.

Messi a worthy Ballon d'Or winner

When FIFA announced that Barcelona and Argentina forward Lionel Messi had won the Ballon d'Or as the world's best player during 2010, it flew in the face of convention by selecting a player who, although universally regarded as tremendous, had not "won it all" that year.

In all fairness, we're talking about a slightly different Ballon d'Or from now on. First and most importantly, the award is now the FIFA Ballon d'Or, dispensed by football's governing body and it's comical - and not in a good way - head, Sepp Blatter. In times past it was awarded by the magazine France Football from 1956 and until three years ago was given only to players who played in Europe. In 1991 FIFA began doling out their World Player of the Year and have wrapped their all-encompassing tentacles around a trophy they didn't own the rights to, appropriating the most famous individual footballing award and stencilled their acronym stencilled across it.

The criteria now for FIFA's Ballon d'Or winner include: performances in major tournaments; individual and team honours; individual talent; skill and fair play; their overall career and finally personality and charisma.

A second key difference is that Messi, although almost indisputably the best footballer in the world, was presented the trophy without actually being part of a winning World Cup squad. This was the first time the award has been presented in a World Cup year to a player who didn't feature for the World Champions. The Spanish press reeled and then railed against the selection of the Argentine, suggesting that triumphant Spain midfielders Xavi and Andres Iniesta were more worthy recipients. The clamour only increased when Spain coach Vicente Del Bosque was beaten into the minor places by Jose Mourinho, who helmed Inter Milan to the UEFA Champions League title.

As much as FIFA has suffered a year they had hoped for more from, we can't lay the blame squarely on the head of Sepp and his eminently swayable bureaucratic chorus. The Ballon d'Or was voted upon by journalists, coaches and captains of teams all over the world and as such the blame - or credit - can be apportioned to people inside the game and not just to those who oversee it. It's telling that Champions League winner and World Cup finalist Wesley Sneijder of Inter Milan and the Netherlands was voted for in large numbers by journalists but not as much from players and coaches, perhaps testament to his notoriously abrasive personality.

The clamour for Xavi, in particular, to win the award is fair and had he walked away with the trophy could be very few arguments. He has claims to being the best midfielder in the world - perhaps the best of his generation - and played alongside Messi with Spanish champions Barcelona and for World Cup winning Spain. But really, could anyone definitively say Xavi is a better player than Messi? And with that said, according to FIFA's criteria he only has one more string to his bow than Messi, who perhaps could have an advantage in several others. As far as Xavi ultimately having more team success, you could say Messi helped Argentina to their World Cup finish in spite of a wacky coach who selected a team which wasn't the best Argentina had to offer. In fact, Messi should be congratulated on his World Cup display while being surrounded by the circus that inevitably follows Diego Maradona. It appears, especially when noting Sneijder's miserly vote tally, that personal preference for each player's role and personality played a role.

Great players don't have to win it all to be recognised as great but they do have to perform on the largest stages. Winning certainly does provide a boost for a player's legacy but it takes a lot of convincing to prove that winning is the be-all and end-all to defining a player's greatness.