The Alan Pardew Project

Alan Pardew is the new boss at Newcastle United. After Mike Ashley decided to fire Chris Hughton it was always likely that the former West Ham manager would be appointed to fill the leadership void on Tyneside. Rumour has it (and it must be said again that this is strictly rumour) that he was seen dining with Ashley in a chichi London eatery the night before Hughton was turfed from his role at St. James' Park. The paucity of current top-class managerial options - even Alan Curbishley turned his nose up at the job - also suggested that Pardew could well be the man for the job.

The most curious part about this appointment is not that Hughton was fired, or even that his replacement comes straight from League One. The most interesting part is the length of contract endowed upon Pardew. The Newcastle hierarchy has seen fit to dish out a five-and-a-half year contract to the 49 year-old silvertail after refusing to commit to The Understated One (Hughton) for even one extra year following a string of good results. The writing on the wall was plain: Hughton was never going to get that contract renewal whether he earned it or not; if only for reasons unbeknownst to us all, he was not the man that Ashley wanted in charge.

The reason five-plus years is curious is that it comes directly after management stated there will be "no rewards for failure" on Tyneside. Alongside that came the standard owner's fare that every penny will be watched under the new gaffer. This implies that Ashley thought Hughton's tenure should be stamped "Fail". If winning the Championship in a canter and maintaining a healthy Premier league position is insufficient then Hughton is guilty. But it also says that whoever took on the job would be judged by the same standards and would have only the same cattle on hand. Perhaps it was shrewd negotiating by Pardew in demanding a five year deal, knowing Ashley could be counted on to lean in whichever way the wind blows. Or perhaps even more believably, Alan Pardew is simply that convincing a salesman that he pitched the Big Man on his features/advantages/benefits so well that Ashley bought the lot. If so, that's a trait not to be underestimated as all the best managers are first-class pitchmen, but Ashley didn't make his millions by being gullible so it is a long bow to draw.

Pardew has said his first thoughts were on maintaining the Magpies' Premiership status - a good start - but if he is to be judged by the same criteria that Hughton has been then he has a pitched battle on his hands. By committing to judge Pardew by the same standards by which he's axed The Understated One then surely Ashley has just offered over five years wages' to a man with a questionable history of achievement and will reward Pardew for whatever he bring to Tyneside: success, mediocrity or failure.

Whichever way you approach, it seems like Alan Pardew, through Mike Ashley's good humour, good eye-for-talent or poor judgement, has been rewarded before the results are in.

Ashley's crazy decision

From all outward appearances, Mike Ashley is an odd one. Ever since assuming the role of chairman at Newcastle United his behaviour could be best described as "eccentric" and his decision to today oust manager Chris Hughton has, however, moved him from the category "makes strange decisions" to "genuinely malicious".

Chris Hughton was fired this morning by Newcastle management as they sought "someone with more experience". His record notwithstanding, The Understated One had just overseen a 3-1 hiding at the hands of fellow promoted side West Bromwich and perhaps this match had less bearing on the firing than we're now led to believe.

Responses from the team have been a mixture of anger, surprise and bemusement. He was popular: recently all of Kevin Nolan, Andy Carroll and Jonas Gutierrez had publicly supported of their boss' methods. After the events of this morning, veterans Sol Campbell and Nolan led the calls of "Why?". Hughton was effective: after taking the reins a second time, Hughton guided the Magpies to promotion from the Championship in their first attempt - winning the Title in the process - when all and sundry declared them ripe for a Leeds United-type fall into the lower reaches of League One. He also managed nineteen points from the Magpies' opening sixteen matches. He was also a coach, thrust into the top job rather unwillingly at first when Kevin Keegan resigned, and again when it was decided that Alan Shearer shouldn't continue as Toon boss. The fact he wasn't a frontman a la Joe Kinnear and more of a back-room boy commanded the respect of the players and he demanded his charges develop. During his time in charge, he received marked improvement from Nile Ranger, Wayne Routledge, Danny Guthrie and most importantly of all, Andy Carroll.

Response from fans to the news has been almost uniformly negative. The words "disgusted", "dismayed" and "gutted" have been bandied about in chat forums and fans as well as the media have leapt to ask why such an effective manager and stabilising influence was handed his pink slip. Already mildly undermined by contract nearing it's expiry with no signs of it being renewed, it has become staggeringly obvious why that much-talked about new contract didn't appear: the Understated One never had any long term future as boss on Tyneside because Ashley saw him solely as a Temp and thus, when the time came to bid farewell he did so without second thoughts. With fans, the football media and players alike sounding off about Hughton deserving a new deal, Ashley proved once again who's the boss on Tyneside and sent his man packing.

The chief reason Newcastle gave for the firing was their seeking someone more experienced to take the poisoned chalice of Magpies Management. However, the first two names linked with the job were Alan Pardew and Iain Dowie. Surely given his uncanny ability to be linked to every single Premier League job that arises, Alan Curbishley's name will also be thrown about willy-nilly. Pardew has seventeen months of experience in the Top Flight with Charlton Athletic & West Ham, Dowie moreso but also a highly chequered record unenhanced by his recent stints as the brains behind Alan Shearer's managerial career and his role as "management consultant" at Hull FC. That Dutchman Martin Jol resigned today from his position at Ajax should be considered a hope by "gutted" and "dismayed" Toon Army members - as a top class manager he could provide some stability but must ask himself "Why would I come to Newcastle - where stability is rewarded with the sack".

That this decision has come at all makes one wonder how much Mike Ashley actually understands football. In all probability he's that most dangerous of owners: he who thinks he knows the game, but really has no idea what makes a player tick. The 3 - 1 defeat by WBA, although the catalyst for Hughton's dismissal, can't have been the reason: Newcastle were missing both first-choice centre-backs, both first-choice central midfielders and one of their top forwards in Nolan. With no money made available to re-stock, Hughton had to make do with what he had. By sacking a popular manager while the club enjoys its most crisis-free period since his arrival suggests that Ashley demands catastrophe rather than evenness. By saying "Newcastle United have consciously decided to plunge themselves back into crisis", Dale Johnson of ESPN Soccernet reads the situation extremely well. By firing the gaffer in the midst of what should be considered a successful season thus far, Ashley has disregarded the preferences of his players - the guys attempting to keep his club in the Premier League - for his own whims, and therefore risks upsetting the Toon applecart simply to satisfy some personal feeling about the man he installed only a matter of months ago. There can be no doubt whatsoever that the axe has been hovering above Hughton's neck for some weeks: rumours abounded before the 5 - 1 mauling of Sunderland that the Manager was for the chop should Newcastle not perform. That only a matter of a month later he has finally successfully rid himself of this irksome understated manager means that Ashley was simply looking for an excuse to do the dirty.

That Newcastle, although officially off the market, could still be purchased by someone with deep enough pockets and strong enough willpower also bears thinking about. Talk around football water coolers says that Ashley could be convinced without trouble to sell should the money be right, and by first firing an inexpensive manager and subsequently appointing an experience (read: expensive) manager it's likely that any potential sale will be affected by this, given the ease with which inexpensive managers can be replaced. Should The Clown in Charge still harbour ambitions of selling the club, then he's just added another hurdle to that potential sale.

If there was one thing that Chris Hughton bought to Newcastle, it was stability. The players, the media, the fans all knew what they were going to get from him and so must have Mike Ashley. Yet the expectation of the manager at St. James' Park remains unreal to the point of laughter. And if guiding your squad to eleventh position in the Premiership with a threadbare squad earns you the sack, what expectations must Ashley have of a new manager? Whichever new manager Ashley appoints, they can be completely certain that Ashley has ideas above his club's station and for a manager, that is a recipe for disaster.

To sign or not to sign?

Six million pounds is a lot of money to spend on a gimp. After having both tibia and fibula broken by an uncontrolled tackle by Nigel de Jong, signing Hatem Ben Arfa on a permanent basis becomes an expensive gamble for Mike Ashley, Chris Hughton and Colin Calderwood. With the figure of six million pounds being thrown around as the the agreed price to complete his signing, suddenly his loan period becomes less of a “try before you buy” and more a tantalising glimpse of what his precocious talent may allow the club to accomplish.

During his glittering few games on Tyneside before the unfortunate injury, Ben Arfa looked a good investment for the 1.5 million the Magpies paid for his loan stint. He provided a touch of magic to an otherwise pedestrian and staid midfield. Had he been able to keep his head and not fall out with either manager or teammates, Newcastle taking up the first chance to sign him for good at season's end was a certainty. But with the surgery to repair the break likely to keep him out of action until the end of the season, the still-penny-saving Newcastle United finds itself in a quandary. Do they take the punt and sign the obviously talented but also-obviously erratic creator, or do they feel his injury could make the six million too high a price?

It breaks down like this: there's a significant chance that Hatem Ben Arfa will never be the same player again. He is undoubtedly a talent, but as the Magpies have discovered the hard way with Alan Smith, once a player breaks a leg there are no guarantees that he is able to repeatedly produce the athleticism needed in a competitive league like the EPL. And unfortunately Smith isn't the only example: once Eduardo suffered his horrifying injury at the hands (or feet) of Martin Taylor he was unable to keep pace with the Premier League and has since moved to Shakhtar Donetsk and a lower standard of league. Questions remain about Aaron Ramsey's restorative powers and whether his leg will be able to stand up to the punishment of another strong challenge. Antonio Valencia's Man Utd career could be finished soon after starting.

But there is a chance that HBA will be the player that many expect: a full France international, a creator of chances and goals – as borne witness to by his magical strike against Everton. He's only 23 and a potential superstar. In an age of nonsensical transfer prices, six million pounds is an absolute snip for a player – a difference maker – of that quality and promise.

With Alan Smith's lame-duck status fresh in their minds and Mike Ashley still attempting to deal the club, it's hard to believe that the bankers will look well upon an investment which isn't a sure thing. The first question is whether or not the Toon will use their first option to buy before the end of the season. If they do, they will be damned with a player who could stumble about a shell of his former self. If not, they risk the next great French player showing his wares at Juventus, Rangers or Sevilla. As simple as it sounds, they don't want that clause to expire as there's no possibility that Ben Arfa will play next season at home club Marseille because he and coach Didier Deschamps don't get along. He will be somewhere else next term, whether it be Newcastle or elsewhere.

Questions remain as to whether or not Newcastle even can survive this season. If they are relegated, this becomes a moot point as there is no chance HBA will play for a second-string team. But whatever happens, it willl be a curious few months for the Toon. Once again the star-cross'd couple of Newcastle United and the fans waltz down the road of uncertainty, hope dashed against the rocks, and of Hatem Ben Arfa.