Newcastle United: to survive or thrive?

Newcastle United has turned from second-tier basket case to Premier League overachiever in the space of two years. It is no doubt thanks to owner Mike Ashley, managers past and present (Chris Hughton and Alan Pardew) and perhaps most encouragingly, the skills and snout of chief scout Graham Carr.

Carr, the father of comic Alan Carr, has scoured France and allowed the club to bring in excellent players at cost-effective prices. The two key names secured upon return to the Premier League were Cheick Tiote and Hatem Ben-Arfa; they have since been joined by Sylvan Marveaux of Rennes and, perhaps most beneficially, France International midfielder Yohan Cabaye, late of Lille.

Courtesy: guardian.co.uk

While there are many Francophones now residing Tyneside, there's more than just that to the Newcastle French Connection. Newcastle's transfer dealings so imitated those of Ligue 1 club Lyon that Newcastle blogger Kris Heneage immortalized the link in this post two days ago. In it, he describes Lyon President Jean-Michel Aulas' planning behind a successful football club, business and pitch-wise.

The principles laid out are sound in theory, but would be difficult to implement in practice. But this isn't Ashley's - or Aulas' - problem, but that of their manager. The rules are business-smart and also give supporters consistency in expectation.  However, the points could doom a club into setting their own level, as if achievement is desirable, but merely a by-product.

Indeed, in many ways  - especially satisfying alleged "problem players" - Newcastle seem to have implemented these statutes more effectively than Olympique Lyonnais. The Toon Army sits in third place in the Premier League, but is still yet to play the Manchester twins, City and United, as well as Chelsea. It's probable that Tiote and Cabaye will have more illustrious suitors - Manchester United could maybe use them both - and the monies received for Andy Carroll make that deal look like a magnificent decision from the boardroom.

Does this platform work? As a league superpower - as Lyon are, but Newcastle aren't - unquestionably. It also helps if your city is a beautiful, luxuriant metropolis in the south of France. Can the same be said of the a chilly outpost in England's northeast?

It would stand to reason that every club obeys a subset of these rules. Every player, outside perhaps Lionel Messi, has his price. Cristiano Ronaldo's was 80 million pounds, Fernando Torres' about two-thirds of that. Sir Alex Ferguson could perhaps even get a bunch of rocks and $20 for Michael Carrick. Even when the money offered is silly; it would be idiotic to refuse it.

But basing a club's economy significantly on the sale of their best players - even when already possessing replacements - can make a club more fiscally secure in the short term, at least as long as the overall talent level is maintained.  Should the scouting fail or injuries hit - c.f. Wigan Athletic - the club could face an uphill battle to meet even modest expectation. From a mid-table side, the model also, however, fails to capture the imagination.  This inspiration is so important in sport, but now may become a thing of the past.  In many cases unbridled, fantastical hopes for one's team are now a thing for Football Manager games rather than reality.


Reducing a club's "achievement ceiling" means setting a level where they can expect to be consistent EPL performers barring unforeseen circumstances. This is what adept businesspeople do: control those circumstances under their control.  But if a club constantly loses their best talent, the best result they can expect is for a strong Cup run and top-ten finish.

Would supporters trade a good Cup run and, best-case, a Europa League campaign for the hopes that accompany retaining their best players?  Good question.  Certainly the pointy-heads in accounting would prefer this model; but fans' hopes are given an upper boundary - for better or worse.  Now re-born after a period in the Championship, NUFC supporters might be the best ones to answer this question: would they trade this new team of Cabaye, Marveaux, Tiote and Ben-Arfa for a golden age of Michael Owen, Mark Viduka and Alan Smith?  The full truth probably won't be evident until that time when (if?) these new Toon stars are enticed to pastures new.

The Alan Pardew Project

Alan Pardew is the new boss at Newcastle United. After Mike Ashley decided to fire Chris Hughton it was always likely that the former West Ham manager would be appointed to fill the leadership void on Tyneside. Rumour has it (and it must be said again that this is strictly rumour) that he was seen dining with Ashley in a chichi London eatery the night before Hughton was turfed from his role at St. James' Park. The paucity of current top-class managerial options - even Alan Curbishley turned his nose up at the job - also suggested that Pardew could well be the man for the job.

The most curious part about this appointment is not that Hughton was fired, or even that his replacement comes straight from League One. The most interesting part is the length of contract endowed upon Pardew. The Newcastle hierarchy has seen fit to dish out a five-and-a-half year contract to the 49 year-old silvertail after refusing to commit to The Understated One (Hughton) for even one extra year following a string of good results. The writing on the wall was plain: Hughton was never going to get that contract renewal whether he earned it or not; if only for reasons unbeknownst to us all, he was not the man that Ashley wanted in charge.

The reason five-plus years is curious is that it comes directly after management stated there will be "no rewards for failure" on Tyneside. Alongside that came the standard owner's fare that every penny will be watched under the new gaffer. This implies that Ashley thought Hughton's tenure should be stamped "Fail". If winning the Championship in a canter and maintaining a healthy Premier league position is insufficient then Hughton is guilty. But it also says that whoever took on the job would be judged by the same standards and would have only the same cattle on hand. Perhaps it was shrewd negotiating by Pardew in demanding a five year deal, knowing Ashley could be counted on to lean in whichever way the wind blows. Or perhaps even more believably, Alan Pardew is simply that convincing a salesman that he pitched the Big Man on his features/advantages/benefits so well that Ashley bought the lot. If so, that's a trait not to be underestimated as all the best managers are first-class pitchmen, but Ashley didn't make his millions by being gullible so it is a long bow to draw.

Pardew has said his first thoughts were on maintaining the Magpies' Premiership status - a good start - but if he is to be judged by the same criteria that Hughton has been then he has a pitched battle on his hands. By committing to judge Pardew by the same standards by which he's axed The Understated One then surely Ashley has just offered over five years wages' to a man with a questionable history of achievement and will reward Pardew for whatever he bring to Tyneside: success, mediocrity or failure.

Whichever way you approach, it seems like Alan Pardew, through Mike Ashley's good humour, good eye-for-talent or poor judgement, has been rewarded before the results are in.

Ashley's crazy decision

From all outward appearances, Mike Ashley is an odd one. Ever since assuming the role of chairman at Newcastle United his behaviour could be best described as "eccentric" and his decision to today oust manager Chris Hughton has, however, moved him from the category "makes strange decisions" to "genuinely malicious".

Chris Hughton was fired this morning by Newcastle management as they sought "someone with more experience". His record notwithstanding, The Understated One had just overseen a 3-1 hiding at the hands of fellow promoted side West Bromwich and perhaps this match had less bearing on the firing than we're now led to believe.

Responses from the team have been a mixture of anger, surprise and bemusement. He was popular: recently all of Kevin Nolan, Andy Carroll and Jonas Gutierrez had publicly supported of their boss' methods. After the events of this morning, veterans Sol Campbell and Nolan led the calls of "Why?". Hughton was effective: after taking the reins a second time, Hughton guided the Magpies to promotion from the Championship in their first attempt - winning the Title in the process - when all and sundry declared them ripe for a Leeds United-type fall into the lower reaches of League One. He also managed nineteen points from the Magpies' opening sixteen matches. He was also a coach, thrust into the top job rather unwillingly at first when Kevin Keegan resigned, and again when it was decided that Alan Shearer shouldn't continue as Toon boss. The fact he wasn't a frontman a la Joe Kinnear and more of a back-room boy commanded the respect of the players and he demanded his charges develop. During his time in charge, he received marked improvement from Nile Ranger, Wayne Routledge, Danny Guthrie and most importantly of all, Andy Carroll.

Response from fans to the news has been almost uniformly negative. The words "disgusted", "dismayed" and "gutted" have been bandied about in chat forums and fans as well as the media have leapt to ask why such an effective manager and stabilising influence was handed his pink slip. Already mildly undermined by contract nearing it's expiry with no signs of it being renewed, it has become staggeringly obvious why that much-talked about new contract didn't appear: the Understated One never had any long term future as boss on Tyneside because Ashley saw him solely as a Temp and thus, when the time came to bid farewell he did so without second thoughts. With fans, the football media and players alike sounding off about Hughton deserving a new deal, Ashley proved once again who's the boss on Tyneside and sent his man packing.

The chief reason Newcastle gave for the firing was their seeking someone more experienced to take the poisoned chalice of Magpies Management. However, the first two names linked with the job were Alan Pardew and Iain Dowie. Surely given his uncanny ability to be linked to every single Premier League job that arises, Alan Curbishley's name will also be thrown about willy-nilly. Pardew has seventeen months of experience in the Top Flight with Charlton Athletic & West Ham, Dowie moreso but also a highly chequered record unenhanced by his recent stints as the brains behind Alan Shearer's managerial career and his role as "management consultant" at Hull FC. That Dutchman Martin Jol resigned today from his position at Ajax should be considered a hope by "gutted" and "dismayed" Toon Army members - as a top class manager he could provide some stability but must ask himself "Why would I come to Newcastle - where stability is rewarded with the sack".

That this decision has come at all makes one wonder how much Mike Ashley actually understands football. In all probability he's that most dangerous of owners: he who thinks he knows the game, but really has no idea what makes a player tick. The 3 - 1 defeat by WBA, although the catalyst for Hughton's dismissal, can't have been the reason: Newcastle were missing both first-choice centre-backs, both first-choice central midfielders and one of their top forwards in Nolan. With no money made available to re-stock, Hughton had to make do with what he had. By sacking a popular manager while the club enjoys its most crisis-free period since his arrival suggests that Ashley demands catastrophe rather than evenness. By saying "Newcastle United have consciously decided to plunge themselves back into crisis", Dale Johnson of ESPN Soccernet reads the situation extremely well. By firing the gaffer in the midst of what should be considered a successful season thus far, Ashley has disregarded the preferences of his players - the guys attempting to keep his club in the Premier League - for his own whims, and therefore risks upsetting the Toon applecart simply to satisfy some personal feeling about the man he installed only a matter of months ago. There can be no doubt whatsoever that the axe has been hovering above Hughton's neck for some weeks: rumours abounded before the 5 - 1 mauling of Sunderland that the Manager was for the chop should Newcastle not perform. That only a matter of a month later he has finally successfully rid himself of this irksome understated manager means that Ashley was simply looking for an excuse to do the dirty.

That Newcastle, although officially off the market, could still be purchased by someone with deep enough pockets and strong enough willpower also bears thinking about. Talk around football water coolers says that Ashley could be convinced without trouble to sell should the money be right, and by first firing an inexpensive manager and subsequently appointing an experience (read: expensive) manager it's likely that any potential sale will be affected by this, given the ease with which inexpensive managers can be replaced. Should The Clown in Charge still harbour ambitions of selling the club, then he's just added another hurdle to that potential sale.

If there was one thing that Chris Hughton bought to Newcastle, it was stability. The players, the media, the fans all knew what they were going to get from him and so must have Mike Ashley. Yet the expectation of the manager at St. James' Park remains unreal to the point of laughter. And if guiding your squad to eleventh position in the Premiership with a threadbare squad earns you the sack, what expectations must Ashley have of a new manager? Whichever new manager Ashley appoints, they can be completely certain that Ashley has ideas above his club's station and for a manager, that is a recipe for disaster.

Carling Cup: Ameobi subverts Carroll as New Messiah

Two high-profile debuts down for two improbable victories. In Sol Campbell's first game in a Newcastle shirt the Magpies pulled off another unlikely victory away at Chelsea, a team previously undefeated this season. Following Saturday's win at Everton, the Tyneside faithful are singing as loudly as ever and charmingly, slightly off-pitch.

Campbell's influence was moderate at best. A dubious penalty notwithstanding, the team shopped three goals, at times looked outpaced by a very speedy Chelsea unit and were saved only by an injury-time header by Shola Ameobi, since anointed on internet chatboards as Newcastle's New New Saviour. Rumours abound that the two-goal hero may replace last month's passé New Saviour Andy Carroll as target man for the weekend's match is tempered only with a modicum of talk about how Carroll has actually played recently.

There's talk of silverware – after six weeks, no less – and in Hughton and his boys the Toon army have found a club they feel are worthy of their support. Their depth, rightly questioned in the past, has perhaps become a strength as the Gaffer saw fit to play Ryan Taylor (what a free kick – sublime!), Peter Lovenkrands, old warhorse Alan Smith, Campbell and Ameobi alongside the youth of Nile Ranger, Tim Krul, Haris Vukcic and Shane Ferguson. From all accounts, Ferguson and Ranger were particularly effective, if occasionally overawed by the spectacle of playing a strong Blues side at Stamford Bridge.

With the news that No. 1 Goalkeeper Steve Harper is out (shoulder) until Christmas, discussion now centres even more around Krul and his suitability to replace the Grand Old Man of Tyneside Keeping. The Dutchman must be aware of new talk linking the club to an emergency loan deal for Shay Given but that for now remains pie-in-the-sky. Krul's game on Wednesday was just fair as he showed glimpses of talent but failed show display the requisite strength to command his area effectively. If a goalie fails to command his area, he must be an excellent communicator and a lack of this communication between himself and Campbell – as well as Ranger's ineffectual box presence – was at fault for the first goal.

An encouraging win to continue an promising start to the season. That the fans are discussing silverware is obviously both amusing, premature and true-to-form, but with a start like they've had there's no reason that Newcastle can't continue to surprise their opposition. Silverware, however, remains a long way away.

Sol Campbell makes his debut for Newcastle United

After an ill-fated experience playing in black and white last year with Notts County, Sol Campbell tonight gets his enormous frame up to make his first bow as Newcastle United alum against Chelsea. It could prove a very interesting occasion as during his cup of coffee at the Emirates last season he proved he can still be a very effective positional defender, if not as athletically dominant as he was in his pomp. And to be fair, Sol's pomp was a decade ago.

Newcastle seems well-endowed with athletically-limited-but-good-positionally centre backs this season especially considering Steven Taylor has yet to feature due to his pre-season shoulder dislocation. Fabricio Coloccini could perhaps be the archetypal leaden-footed battalion commander and understudy Mike Williamson has won many initial skeptics over since his transfer from Portsmouth in January. It's likely that we'll see at least Williamson tonight as Chris Hughton experiments with a squad which has remained relatively steadfast over the course of the season so far.

Tim Krul and Ole Soderberg take the reins as goalkeeper and backup after Steve Harper's shoulder injury and they may face a flurry of peppered shots from the young legs fielded by Chelsea. Blues boss Carlo Ancelotti has made noises about starting several youthful players, especially as Captain John Terry and playmaker Frank Lampard sit out with injuries. Dan Sturridge has looked impressive, particularly in last week's Champions League tie and is blessed with pace that would win him selection for most countries Olympics squads, while Gael Kakuta has been long-trumpeted as the speedy future of Chelsea's left flank. To match up with another Premier League side in the third round of the competition could be disappointing for Premiership sides seeking advancement and eventually silverware, but could Chelsea really look for more encouragement for their youth than being faced with sticks-in-the-mud Campbell and Alan Smith?

Campbell comes to Newcastle after rebuffing interest from other EPL clubs including Arsenal. On arriving Tyneside, he said it was nice to feel wanted again and the Toon army should be confident he in him being more an asset this term than a hindrance. But in choosing to debut him in this match, Hughton's chosen a curious time. Sure, it's the Carling Cup and no-one will mind particularly if Newcastle are beaten by heavily-favoured Chelsea. But with his pace comparable to a guy in a bogged wheelchair the fixture very much becomes feast or famine. Either Campbell will be exposed for pace or he will triumph simply by his smarts; middle ground will prove very difficult to come across.

To quote Aussie race driver Dick Johnson “Old Age and dirty tricks will always triumph over youth and exuberance”. Agreeable sentiments you'll agree. But this age-old Immovable Object and Irresistible force dilemma could be skewed when the youth of Chelsea choose not to run through the Immovable Object but around it.

Game 2: Newcastle vs. Aston Villa

Game 2, 22nd August 2010
Newcastle United vs. Aston Villa

What had previously been promised has now been delivered. 6-0! With performances like this, Newcastle will surely end the year Champions of Europe!!

A truly emphatic victory yesterday for the men in black and white, especially as they were missing probable first-choice defenders – Sol Campbell the latest victim of the flab monster while Steven “I'm not a Doctor Who character” Taylor once again has shown all the resistance to injury of uncooked pasta. Unsurprisingly it was defensively the Toon looked most suspect as Villa initially were able to exploit the backs for pace; the inevitable calamity came with both central defenders and goalkeeper Steve Harper played tortoise to Ashley Young's hare and the subsequent concession of a lazy penalty. Fortunately, the spot-kick was taken by John Carew and the ball is still gaining velocity somewhere between Mars and Jupiter.

As the game wore on Newcastle's size and strength came to the fore against a lightweight Claret lineup unable to cope and the signs for the season are promising as they attack the division armed with chest-and-facial-hair sporting men's men and not skinny kids with horrible hair (sorry, that should read "and not skinny kids"). And Alan Smith who's some grotesque but likeable combination of the two.

Enterprise from the wide position s has long been a staple of success on Tyneside and yesterday was the same. Enrique, Gutierrez & Routledge all looked overmatched their last times out in the top flight, so it was quite surprising that it was from there that much of the thrust to their offense came. That they had a presence centrally at which to aim can't have hurt – Andy Carroll and his horrible hair delivering on four years of potential to present an immovable object (at least for Richard Dunne & Ciaran Clark) front and centre.

Given Chris Hughton's stated desire to move away from the 4-4-2 formation as immutable on Tyneside as track suits & chip butties to explore this year's “buzz” formation, the 4-2-3-1, I find myself asking if this is wisest given yesterday's win. Without getting carried away (obviously I'm not a 'Pies supporter) the lineup did as needed on the day and the relative safety and comfort afforded by the tried-and-true 4-4-2 could provide some refuge against sides not prone to disappearing at the slightest physical pressure like Aston Villa. The latest buzz-formation is fine but buttering bread is a simple task and as such, formations should be simple as well. Allowing Carroll to hold the ball up and involve his midfield mates, especially Kevin Nolan, is key and health, confidence & sanity willing he should provide the offensive fulcrum they can use to ensure safety.

The centre of midfield is the greatest question mark with back-row-of-the-bus boys Alan Smith and Joey Barton (complete with highly dubious moustache) vulnerable to the counter – the rumoured signing of Ivorian Cheik Tiote may provide the athleticism and mobility required mid-field. Also, given that he is – and let's be fair – a massive tool, anyone who thinks Joey Barton can stay out of trouble and injury belongs on the same short bus as Mike Ashley and Joe Kinnear.

A lesser stated reason for optimism is in their overall experience. This meant they weren't overawed playing at home in the top flight against a team playing in Europe. This team, if they believe it, has the bodies to avoid thumpings from even the very best and if that self-belief holds (and the win yesterday should have bought them a month full of confidence at worst) the club should ask enough questions of the mid table to survive and promise hope for future years.

All these positives can't hide the shadowy question marks over some aspects of the Magpies this season – they're only a Carroll injury, the inevitable Barton brain-fart and a likely Sol Campbell spontaneous combustion from Mars-rover type disaster – but signs point to them having enough about them to resist the slide back into the championship. An encouraging way to start the home campaign.

Newcastle United - Up and Down

(written 20th August)

The thing is, I don't even like Newcastle United. I don't like Newcastle as a city, I abhor the misguided fervour of their fans, I dislike their whole “Geordies against the World” attitude and their tedious search for their next messiah. They field a squad with Joey Barton for crying out loud. Mike Ashley as an owner is a mad genius at best while the whole Northern Rock sponsor-going-bankrupt fiasco was amusing if nothing else. Their tawdry rivalries with whoever they next choose to disdain are of supreme indifference to me and in pure footballing terms their team has served up boring, predictable sludge for the best part of the noughties. Even this squad can't seem to do the convincing “new, fresh look” demanded, content to serve up not one but three Roberto Baggio lookalikes. How can you admire a player who sports hair – let alone fists – like Andy Carroll?

That said, the demands placed on the team when compared against their results from the last sixty years is what intrigues me most about Newcastle United as the season approaches. The fans and board have always prided themselves on their “big club” status while the results hardly reflect those that mark a club as “big” - the expectation that the club will win every game while scoring myriad goals has marred several winning seasons as failures. This expectation is what defines Newcastle United and given their inability – self-inflicted or not – to meet those expectations that definition becomes the dichotomy of failure.

The story intrigues me – the dichotomy is like the proverbial car crash, difficult to look away – a club insisting on revelling in former glories, still feeling they're part of the fabric of the Premier Division. A delusional view perhaps, but undoubtedly passionate. Being a regional centre with a solid football pedigree presents a compelling argument as to why they matter but in no way does that past success or full stadium prove that they're important.

Season 2010-11 for Newcastle United is a story unto itself. The expectation forms the backdrop with starker colours added with the ludicrous transfer fees spent during the 1990s and 2000s, the list of past-prime superstars who've gone Tyneside to die and ultimately the ignominy of relegation in 2009, the worst kind of humiliation as they sunk without a cry while Phil Brown's – Phil Brown! - Hull City, a truly awful team, survived. Then new – old – hope as those ageing vets took apart the Championship. This year, the club's playing staff is largely unchanged: James Perch has come in, Nicky Butt has gone out; and the makeup of the team is similar to the fallen team of 2008-09. Large changes have been promised since that day where Hull survived and the Newcastle faithful died a little but lofty wage bills have prevented major player sales and the club has essentially been treading water.

So where does this put the 2010-11 edition of Newcastle United FC? With a roster of players good enough to achieve safety given the relative weakness of this Premier League season and not weighed down as much as in the past with fan and board expectations of greatness previously the norm at St. James' Park. The squad as presently constituted is no better than a twelfth-placed team, but no worse than a sixteenth-best. Their size and strength in midfield and defence should overpower weaker back-halves like WBA & Blackpool.

The pieces are all in place for a highly intriguing season which made me think – how about following the season dispassionately? Obviously I can't follow the team – apparently you can't do that authentically unless you can trace your ancestry back four generations Tyneside – but the story is there. To maintain minimal interest in the quality of results but in the club in general.

Let's see how it goes.