A truly fatal four-way

If the Australian selectors are starting to consider playing four pacemen for the third Test against India in Perth, they’re just as muddle-headed as the team they replaced. 

Let’s not go into the ramifications of kicking another promising young spinner in the teeth (cf. Beau Casson, Dan Cullen, Nathan Hauritz and Michael Beer), it belies common sense and, eventually, come back to bite Australia fairly and squarely on the bum.

Since 1990, Australia has played 21 times at Perth.  In those games, their Win/Loss ratio stands at thirteen wins, three draws and four losses.  Australia has played an all-pace attack in three of those games: in the Ashes last year, versus India in 2007-08 and in the 1998-99 Ashes series, where “Funky” Miller got the nod while Shane Warne was injured. 

Although they won the WACA match last year – and against the Old Enemy a dozen years before – they were absolutely pillaged in 2007-08 against the Indians.  This 2-in-3 success rate seems about right for what amounts to a gamble.

There are four iron-clad reasons why an all-pace attack should be vetoed with as much haste as possible.

First, Australia seems to have a great wealth of fast bowling talent at present.  Unfortunately however, the nation seems to be injuring that talent as quickly as it arrives.  With James Pattinson, like Pat Cummins, succumbing to the dread foot stress reaction, Australia are likely to head into Perth dressing the indefatigable Peter Siddle, the injury-prone Ryan Harris and the revitalised Ben Hilfenhaus.  Add a fourth to that lot (Peter George?  Mitch Starc?) and suddenly Australia’s attack, should/when Harris break down again, looks quite thin when compared to a batting lineup boasting near enough to 50000 Test runs. 

Peter George, courtesy: perthnow.com.au

This doesn’t even begin to answer the questions as to whether Starc, who looked game but perhaps overwhelmed against New Zealand, or indeed George, are polished enough for Test level at present.

Secondly, the effects of dropping Lyon would be tantamount to a slap from a wet fish.  Sure, he has cumulative figures of 2/180 so far this series, but he’s played on pitches hardly amenable to spin (Indian compatriot Ravi Ashwin has 4/298).  He’s also on track to be the best off-spinner Australia’s had since arguably since Ian Johnson, who retired in 1956.  He is worth persisting with and needs his captain, coach and even the ball-boys to tell him his place is secure.  Nathan Hauritz, though captained by a man who thinks spin is something that dryers do, was never told this.  And it showed.

This dovetails nicely into the third reason – Australia should play Lyon because he’s better-suited to the Perth pitch than to almost any other strip in the country.  While a bigger turner of the ball than Hauritz (as are many), he still doesn’t rip the ball or have quite the grip and turn of the likes of Saqlain Mushtaq, Harbhajan Singh or Graeme Swann.  What this means is that he’s a thinking bowler, and could – should? – become the Anil Kumble to Swann’s Warne, a player reliant on subtle variations … and aided enormously by bounce. 

Finally, while Australia has opted for a four-pronged pace attack in the past, it has done so when conditions merit.  Those conditions are best defined by the following questions:

           

            Does the pitch take spin - at all? 

            Will the strip break up?

            Can variety be provided by bowlers whose name isn’t Mike Hussey?

            Are the four best available bowlers pacemen? 

            If so, how far ahead of the competition/spinner are they?

            Are any of the four liable to collapse in a screaming heap?

           

Unfortunately for those advocating a fatal four-way, even the most ignorant of cricket fans knows the answer to all the above questions without even needing to think.  Australia would take a retrograde step in taking four speedsters to Perth, a step with both long and short-term implications.

#freeLyon

Sixty-Six Sigma: Queensland

Ben Roberts with Matthew Wood

Openers: Wade Townsend and Ryan Broad

It seems a long time ago that the all-powerful Queensland had the insatiable Matthew Hayden and hardened Trevor Barsby walking out to begin the innings. The pair was feared by all other Australian domestic teams. Now ... not so much.

In a squad boasting a combination of the young, the average and journeymen. The openers Townsend and Broad averaged only 25 and 21 for season 2010/11 yet are among the easier selections because no-one else stand outs. With New South Wales' propensity for generating openers of quality, this could be a position reinforced by someone the likes of Phil Jaques or David Warner.

Number Three: Joseph Burns

The most promising young batsmen in Queensland. Burns made his first class debut last season at age 21 and scored a red-ink 140. In three total matches he added a half century and showed much promise for the future. Due to the rebuilding state of Queensland cricket, he will be on a steep learning curve and need to bat at 3 or 4. Support will have to come form a young middle order and expat New South Welshman Peter Forrest .

Middle Order: Chris Lynn and Peter Forrest

Chris Lynn has made a name for himself across the oceans as well due to his ability in the shortest format in the game. Let's hope that a focus on T20 will not harm a genuine Test prospect. Still 20 last season, Lynn's average of 53 was underpinned by two centuries in 9 matches in 2010/11. His hard-hitting style means that he is more suited for slots 4 through 6.

Forrest against Krezja; courtesy: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pj_in_oz

Peter Forrest is a silky New South Welshman who has represented Australia A in the past. He hopes for more opportunities, "Boof" Lehmann's Queensland hopes for stability and a player with moderate experience to shepherd a young batting squad. He'll have to assume a lot of responsibility and will probably bat at five.

All-Rounder: James Hopes

Will likely captain the team. In 2010/11, Hopes was given significant opportunity to perform with the bat as the top order showed all the solidity of yesterday's bubble bath. The old Maroon war horse duly delivered in his usual unexceptional style in averaging 59; although he could not convert six half centuries into a big score. His bowling was even stronger with 27 wickets at 20 in 7 matches.

Wicket-keeper: Chris Hartley

It feels as though Hartley's been around forever without so much as nudging a place into the national selectors hearts. An average of 29 over 10 matches was a consistent season for the left-hander, especially based on previous seasons. With no competition for his place - and amongst the best behind-the-stumps skills in the nation - he is unlikely to be challenged for his position.

Spinner: Cameron Boyce

While the 'Gabba takes turn - it was the ground at which Shane Warne had some of his greatest successes - Queensland has struggled to develop a quality spinner since the departure of Nathan Hauritz. Cameron Boyce is probably the one spinner selected in this exercise that you can hold your excitement for. A leg break bowler who has taken 14 wickets in 10 matches, but really is just making up the numbers here. Queensland may select Jason Floros as an off-spinning all-rounder and opt for a four-pronged pace attack.

Pacemen: Ryan Harris, Ben Cutting and Luke Feldman

A glut of raw fast bowling talent does exist in Queensland. Outside of the two selected alongside Harris, there are 4 or 5 other prospects that may perhaps render older players such as Chris Swan and Steve Magoffin superfluous to a regenerating Bulls team.

Harris selects himself, but, given the state of his knees and likely international duties, chances of him featuring are remote. Twenty-four year old Ben Cutting and the slightly older Feldman are selected based on promising 2010/11 results. A pair of Australia u19 fast men with famous fathers, Alistair McDermott and Nick Buchanan, are nipping at their heels.  All told, Queensland have a good balance of fast bowling: young and old, fast and slow, accurate and Swan.

Who's locked in?

As captain, Hopes is nearly secure in his position both as a quality leader and in both disciplines. If Forrest finds form, he's likely to cement a position in the middle order to act as the team's middle order enforcer. Cutting could be a good one.

What's disappointing?

On results, the weakest side in the entire Sheffield Shield. However, the Maroons are also the team with perhaps the most potential in the country backed behind youth the calibre of McDermott, Cutting, Burns and Lynn. Outside the fast bowlers, the new regime of loan transactions should, over the next couple of seasons, advocate a move north if you can't get a game for your home state.

Who's next up - or, alternatively, who's loan bait?

Jason Floros is a potential spin bowling all-rounder who relocated from the ACT. He played solidly in three first-class matches in his debut season and should be given more opportunity with Queensland this year. Journeymen Steve Magoffin (RFM), returning to his home state, and Chris Swan (RFM) are next senior cabs off the rank.

Australia post-Argus: Hope springs eternal

Ben Roberts

Trust me - I am expert in these matters. As a supporter of the Richmond football club, I have borne first hand experience of sporting teams re-births. I have lost count of how many times the jungle drums have beaten, signalling for the mighty Tigers that long-awaited success is just around the corner. 

But I have also lost count of the number of times I have been disappointed. The re-emergence of the Australian team immediately post-Argus appears different.

Ido not wish to take back my earlier remarks that until changes are made at the very top of Australia's administration we cannot rest, and I will not yet fully allow my emotions to again rise and fall with the Australian side. I also believe that we need to remain calm post-Argus as many bridges need crossing before Australia's ascent to the top of world cricket again even begins, let alone arrives. But despite only the tiniest of samples to go on, I believe we can hold hope for the future.

We have begun the Sri Lanka Test series in fine style in difficult conditions for both teams.  It is encouraging that Australia were far more willing to put their hand to the plough and get a result. I am currently observing the early period in the second Test and they have picked up where they left off.

Our batsman appear as though they may unite for the first time in 18 months behind our warrior cricketer in Shane Watson. Who would have though five years ago he would have been described as such? There are clear messages having been given, we will begin to select on form in the future, not whatever it was previously that Hilditch and Co. did. There has been further experience for the likes of Hughes and Khawaja, and a debut long overdue for Shaun Marsh. Overdue not because of previously having deserved it but because of his unwillingness to take the chances offered him, preferring like many Australian cricketers to rely on a charmed existence than a body of good runs.

We have selected a bowling lineup along a horses for courses principle. Siddle missed out to Copeland in the first two test. This was the correct decision, come a greener surface in Cape Town or Brisbane the Victorian will be best placed to take over. The spin bowling fraternity remains somewhat confused, but at least (ed: as a frustrated spinner) the skipper has more understanding of tweakers than his predecessor.

There are still glaring holes. While we seem to want to select a bowling lineup based on horses for courses there seems no end in the near future to the man love shown to Mitchell Johnson. The man they should be building the attack around is currently at the other end. Granted, his stocky and hairy torso may not look as good in a pair of Y-fronts as Mitch, but Ryan Harris is far more deserving of being attack leader and first choice.

When the former skipper flew home to witness his child's birth, David Warner was flown in as replacement. I really hope that two dozen other first-class batsman in Australia just happened to be busy at the time because I am at a loss as to how Warner, unproven at most levels but particularly first-class, could possibly be the best selected. Lets try and put the best team on the field, not invent our own version of Virender Sehwag because its more marketable.

Finally on the subject of our former skipper, If he can average 40 for the rest of his career and help guide the next generation of Australian batsman, he will have done more than enough. I am strong in my hope that he will do this - let's not get carried away that he will return to his heady best.

“Hope springs eternal in the human breast”. Below which my heart may once again be the Australian cricket sides. Just not yet.

Selectors must demand accountability

With the two additions to Australia's squad for the second Test being fast bowlers, questions now hang over the future of Mitchell Johnson and to a lesser extent, Ben Hilfenhaus. Both pacemen were unable to perform at the 'Gabba and by selecting Ryan Harris and Doug Bollinger the selectors have stated flatly that only by achievement does one maintain their position in the Test team.

This is a long overdue standard for Australia to discover: for too long players have kept their spots because "They have class" or "They need experience" or "They have potential" amongst any other number of reasons. No matter what the sport, the best teams in the world place selection pressure on the incumbents from outside the "first team" - players on the fringe trying to force their way into the team. The simple result of this is those who stay in the team do so by way of their performance. Perhaps the best example is of Collingwood Football Club in Australia where coach Mick Malthouse has inspired incredible performances consistently over recent years from youthful ranks simply by rewarding good form. A player stays in the team only if he is able to do the job assigned to him and the Magpies youngsters have responded in spades. Say what you like about Collingwood's outward attitudes but their youth development has been amongst the best in the AFL for a decade now.

Whether Australia deigns to make changes still remains to be seen as the selectors have played this gambit before only for no changes to be made. With a change in selection panel and with an increased role for Greg Chappell maybe this week is the time it changes and Doug Bollinger replaces fellow left-armer Johnson as Australia's strike bowler. Unquestionably unfortunate to not play in Brisbane, Bollinger adds more grit to the lineup at the expense of pace and unpredictability. Harris, Clint McKay (VIC), Peter George (SA), Luke Butterworth (TAS) and New South Welsh pair Mark Cameron & Trent Copeland have all got legitimate claims both to good form and the potential to succeed for Australia so the fast-bowling stocks aren't thin at all.

The strongest message of accountability would be to simply drop "Zoolander" as he hasn't performed for Australia since the 2009 tour to South Africa. Like any other successful sports team, their motto has to be "Play well or we'll find someone who will". With the Australian team so long regarded "Harder to get out of than into" - except for Brad Hodge in both cases - it's long past time Australia stopped suffering sub-par performances in the name of style, elegance or explosiveness.