The following analysis was
performed utilizing data from the Individual Plus/Minus series published on the
site throughout the year. You can find the
full data set in the Room of Informational
Illusions. Should you wish for a glossary of
terms used in this article, it
can be found here.
Overview
Villa finished the season in
fifteenth position on the EPL table, when, pre-season many expected them to
challenge for a top-half berth.
2013-14 was hardly a success for
Aston Villa. After assuming control of the midlands club prior to 2012-13, Scotland’s
entry for World’s Most Charismatic Man Paul Lambert orchestrated something of a
revolution-on-the-cheap by marginalizing the overpaid stars who had taken Villa
to the brink of Champions League football and then almost to relegation. Little
was heard of Alan Hutton, Darren Bent, Charles N’Zogbia and Jean Il Makoun,
while young players from lower divisions like Matthew Lowton and Ashley
Westwood came in as accoutrements to centerpiece Christian
Benteke, who was acquired from Genk.
While some Villans – not least captain
Ron Vlaar and central midfielder Fabian Delph – had solid seasons, many of the
players who finished 2012-13 so promisingly regressed or struggled to impact
games in 2013-14 as they had the previous season.
One of the more notable examples
was Lowton, who managed only 23 matches for the term. The right-back, who
scored the
goal of the season against Stoke City the year before, was a defensive
liability and spent
vast stretches of the season either on the bench or unselected. While
Andreas Weimann’s numbers according to the Individual Plus/Minus system
compared quite favourably to his teammates, far more was expected from the Villa
player to whom the
Spiderman Principle most obviously applies.
Players the numbers loved
When using statistics to analyse
players, one number rarely affords more information than a combination of
several. It’s a common-sense principle, to be sure, but easily lost in these
days of WAR, PER, WaRP and EPPV. Sometimes, however, one-stat analyses tell an interesting
broad-stroke story.
This is true with Aston Villa,
and particularly Czech forward Libor Kozak. The stringbean was the only Claret
to post a positive +/--per-90 rating (0.115) – or, in layman’s terms, he was
the only player during whose time on the field Villa scored more than they
conceded. That he played only 781 minutes across fourteen games before his
season ended
with injury is testament to the bad luck endured by the club during last
season; had he been available to replace Benteke during the stretch run, these
numbers may have dropped, but the club may also have avoided the near-freefall
that marked their 2014.
Spanish left back Antonio Luna was
another who fared better than most in limited minutes. His +/--per-90 score was
still negative (-0.196), but was the best of any player to take the field for
over 1000 minutes (1381) despite Villa’s inability to score even one goal for
every 90 minutes of his field-time.
Of the regulars, it’s no surprise
that Concrete
Ron (-0.385) and defensive utility Ciaran Clark (-0.326) fared the best. Most
interestingly, this partnership didn’t so much reduce the club’s vulnerability –
the pair conceded over 1.5 goals each per 90 minutes – but reinforce its attack.
Lambert’s first-choice centre-backs averaged 1.123 and 1.224 goals per 90
minutes respectively, Vlaar’s total good enough for third in stat category that
Clark led.
Players to whom the numbers weren’t so kind
The farther to the extremes of the chart you read, the better/worse the player performed |
The numbers that stand out most
belong to mid-season acquisitions brought in either to fill a glaring need or as
a means of increasing
the overall talent level of the Aston Villa playing group. This pair, Grant
Holt and Ryan Bertrand, didn’t necessarily disgrace themselves on the pitch –
Holt only managed 376 minutes across ten appearances – but simply displayed all
the symptoms of a club who couldn’t defend for toffee.
With Bertrand on the field, the
Clarets coughed up over two goals per game (2.006/90min), a total nearly 10%
worse than for any other player who played over 1000 minutes (Lowton, 1.827,
whose minutes were spread out over the entire season rather than just Villa’s
decline phase). Lowton also fared particularly poorly as the club scored less
frequently and conceded more regularly while he manned the right side.
Final mention must be given to Villa’s
previously-vaunted youth. The six regulars with the worst +/--per-90 scores
were previously thought of as the future of the club: Bertrand, Lowton, defensive
utility Nathan Baker (-0.691), the now-departed Mark Albrighton (-0.651), Westwood
(-0.639) and Leandro Bacuna (-0.590).
That Lowton makes the club’s best
(statistical) offensive and defensive teams and Baker is the first defender off
the bench in Villa’s best Defensive XI is an indicator not only of the lack of
talent at Villa last year, but also a sign of either an almost-startling absence
of depth that has yet to be redressed. This can be seen below in the chart that details each Villan's Scored/90 rate versus Conc/90 rate.
As Lambert’s cut-price remodel
continues, he needs far more from these youngsters, most of which have been
brought in (or throught) by his regime.
Position
|
Offensive
|
Scored/90
|
Defensive
|
Conc/90
|
Overall
|
+/- per 90
|
GK
|
Guzan
|
1.026
|
Guzan
|
1.605
|
Guzan
|
-0.579
|
DC
|
Clark
|
1.224
|
Clark
|
1.550
|
Clark
|
-0.326
|
DC
|
Vlaar
|
1.123
|
Vlaar
|
1.508
|
Vlaar
|
-0.385
|
DL
|
Bertrand
|
1.165
|
Baker
|
1.601
|
Luna
|
-0.196
|
DR
|
Lowton
|
1.066
|
Bacuna
|
1.631
|
Bacuna
|
-0.590
|
MC
|
Delph
|
1.079
|
Delph
|
1.558
|
Delph
|
-0.480
|
MC
|
El Ahmadi
|
1.068
|
Westwood
|
1.627
|
El Ahmadi
|
-0.575
|
MR
|
Albrighton
|
1.210
|
Lowton
|
1.827
|
Agbonlahor
|
-0.512
|
ML
|
Bertrand
|
1.165
|
Luna
|
1.173
|
Weimann
|
-0.407
|
FC
|
Kozak
|
1.152
|
Kozak
|
1.037
|
Kozak
|
+0.115
|
FC
|
Weimann
|
1.153
|
Agbonlahor
|
1.389
|
Benteke
|
-0.498
|
It’s telling that several players
with such bad comparative numbers feature heavily in the above lineups. For
2014-15 to proceed differently, upgrades (either internal or external) are
required in all wide positions, both offensively and defensively. The left side
appears to have been addressed with the acquisition of Kieren Richardson and,
hopefully, improvement from Joe Bennett; the right will rely on Lowton and
Bacuna once again.
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