What the numbers said: Cardiff City 2013-14

The following analysis was performed utilizing data from the Individual Plus/Minus series published on the site throughout the year. You can find the full data set in the Room of Informational Illusions.

Should you wish for a glossary of terms used in this article, it can be found here.

Overview

Cardiff City didn’t have a great 2014. After an encouraging start, the Bluebirds tailed away almost at the precise the instant owner Vincent Tan began questioning manager Malky Mackay’s job security. When Mackay was replaced by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, the new manager began rotating their first team and team structure at an alarming rate – with the results you’d expect.

Some players didn’t suffer from their Welsh association. The two players for whom Cardiff City broke their transfer record in 2013 (Gary Medel and Steve Caulker) were perhaps the club’s best players, while two loyal Mackay men – David Marshall and Fraizer Campbell – had seasons that have or still might win them moves back up to the Premiership.

Under Mackay, the team scored 0.722 goals per game while conceding 1.556; their new Norwegian boss brought with him 0.95 goals per contest at cost of 2.3. The team had a Goal Difference of -14 during the 18 games Mackay stayed with the team and -28 in 20 after Solsjkaer arrived. As the club contemplates another spell in the second tier, Tan and his rapidly-growing-less-golden-haired boy can assess if the 30% increase in offense under the regime was worth the 48% decrease in defence.

Click to enlarge

Players the numbers loved

The average Bluebird scored 0.842 goals per 90 minute and conceded 1.947 in the same time. The average Bluebird was captain Caulker, who played every minute of the club’s season. This resulted in a PMP of -1.105. The team’s Goal Difference (and consequently the average Bluebird’s PMP) was worse by approximately 62% after Solskjaer turned up.

To get a better feel for a player’s worth to the Bluebirds, let's examine which players saw their PMP stats change by more or less. Only three players actually improved their PMP under Solskjaer, the aforementioned midfielders Kim (from -1.070 to -0.588 +55%) and Mutch (-1.318 to -1.005, +25%), as well as winger Craig Noone (+14%), whose total is most easily explained by his small sample size as he only played 355 minutes across 6 games for Mackay in the throes of his demise.

A possible explanation for this is the amount of time both the other midfielders spent as impact substitutions where it was possible to achieve quick boosts (or drops) based on scores or concessions in a very limited time.

If the average Bluebird’s PMP decreased by 62%, those whose scores didn’t reflect thatincluded Ben Turner (-18%), who was replaced first by Kevin Theophile Catherine (-34%), then by Cala and finally by the boy next door. Turner’s season-long PMP sat at an impressive -0.893, one of only five Bluebirds to break -0.900 - two of whom (Fabio and Mats Daehli) only arrived in January.

While Campbell's relative contributions dipped post-Mackay, his total PMP scores under both managers were reasonable, while the numbers suited left-back Andy Taylor (PMP -0.683) and Aron Gunnarsson (PMP -0.657) under Mackay. Neither fared even quite so well under Solskjaer.

Gary Medel, who has turned his Welsh sojourn into a lucrative move to Inter, was the most impressive Bluebird midfielder after Kim; with him on the park, the team both scored more frequently while conceding less often.

Cardiff City's rate of scoring and concession while each player plays 90 minutes.
The further to the right of the chart, the more frequently the team scores with that player on the field; the further to the top, the more the team concedes.

Players to whom the numbers weren’t so kind

Let’s talk about poor Don Cowie. The Scotsman, now at Wigan Athletic, was on the field for only six Bluebird goals in 2013-14 while being present for 28 concessions – a staggering personal +/- of -22 in only a combined 961 minutes. What made that worse was that during the 211 minutes he played under Solskjaer, not once did the Bluebirds find the net with him on the field. His PMP was 5 time worse after the regime change.

Another who wished that Mackay had never left was Aron Gunnarsson, the defensive midfielder who had the misfortune of never seeming to fit Solskjaer’s rotating system: under Mackay he was nearly ubiquitous, and his team performed relatively well while he was on the field (PMP -0.657), he played only 443 minutes over 8 matches after the managerial changeover for a PMP of -2.438. While under Solskjaer, record-setter Cowie (-5.545) and Gunnarsson (-2.438) had the worst PMPs of any players in a sample that included approximately one quarter of the English Premiership.

This duo, who had previously performed well under Mackay, ended with season-long PMP scores of -2.060 and -1.170.

Others who struggled included new signing Cala, with PMP -1.538 in limited minutes, and Kenwyne Jones, who managed only -1.389 in the same stat category.

Best XIs

	Offensive	S90	Defensive	C90	Best	PMP
GK	Marshall	0.838	Marshall	1.973	Marshall	-1.135
DC	Cala	0.923	Turner	1.753	Turner	-0.893
DC	Catherine	0.879	Caulker	1.947	Catherine	-1.105
DR	Fabio	1.153	Catherine	1.949	Fabio	-0.887
DL	Taylor	0.915	John	1.769	John	-1.084
MC	Mutch	0.940	Kim Bo-Kyung	1.666	Kim Bo-Kyung	-0.806
MC	Medel	0.877	Medel	1.723	Medel	-0.846
MR	Zaha	0.923	Zaha	2.007	Zaha	-1.081
ML	Bellamy	0.932	Gunnarsson	1.930	Bellamy	-1.075
FC	Daehli	1.006	Bellamy	2.006	Campbell	-0.973
FC	Jones	0.926	Odemwingie	1.839	Daehli	-0.863

The similarity between Bellamy and Zaha is somewhat striking. There’s also a schism between managers evident in the two offensive and defensive teams – Fabio, Daehli, Zaha, Cala and Jones were all men of Solskjaer while Gunnarsson, Turner, Odemwingie and Catherine fared better under Mackay.

Suggested reading: Cardiff City team selections 2013-14